18.08.2016 18:09

In the fall, experts predict a weakening of the national currency. Now the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is artificially covering the budget deficit with funds Reserve Fund, they believe, and the Central Bank is doing this for the sake of United Russia’s rating in the State Duma elections.

According to a number of Russian financial analysts, only the authorities' concern about the election result is keeping the ruble from falling. This opinion, in particular, was expressed in a conversation with “Notes” by Dr. economic sciences, Head of Consulting and Analytical Union LLC Artem Genkin. “These concerns are justified, but there will most likely not be a discrete drop or a repeat of Black Tuesdays or Thursdays,” he says. “And I think that the drop will not exceed 10-15%.”

Exchange expert, member of the expert council of Business Russia Vladislav Zhukovsky believes that the potential for the ruble to fall is almost unlimited. “The current exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar is extremely low,” he believes. “It could start to fall now, but there is a powerful selective factor.” In his opinion, the peak of the ruble's fall will occur in November-December.

Main Researcher Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences Nikita Krichevsky predicts the beginning of devaluation in September - immediately after the elections.

Many experts agree that the current exchange rate of the ruble at the level of 64-66 rubles per dollar is being artificially restrained by the authorities. The market exchange rate of the ruble may be lower than the current level not only because oil has long cost less than $50, they believe. The main risk factor is the depletion of Russia’s reserves in 2017, the likelihood of which is openly stated in the Russian government. This creates devaluation pressure on the ruble and creates negative expectations, which have already manifested themselves in growth foreign currency deposits, even against the backdrop of extremely low rates on foreign currency deposits.

Therefore, today the main reason for holding back the ruble exchange rate is current level— image-building, analysts say. After all, if the ruble will fall before the elections, no administrative resource will help to collect an acceptable minimum of votes for United Russia. And until the end of the election race, the monetary authorities have to put a good face on a bad game. This is a typical situation before every election that took place in Russia during periods of economic recession.

“The only thing that the ruling party can present to Russians on the eve of the elections is the fight against inflation and the mythical strengthening of the ruble, despite the fact that the ruble exchange rate is overheated and investments in fixed capital are falling,” notes Vladislav Zhukovsky.

Nikita Isaev, director of the Institute of Contemporary Economics, also believes. “The current information agenda is, indeed, entirely determined by the upcoming State Duma elections,” he says. “If we allow the national currency to weaken now, this could damage the image of the party in power. Afterwards the ruble will be devalued. Most likely this will happen in October. Exactly because in the fourth quarter it will be necessary to set up the federal budget for 2017. In the meantime, to cover budget deficit the savings of the Reserve Fund, which keep the ruble afloat, are being spent.”

Most analysts agree that the dollar will rise to 70-80 rubles in the fall, but there are also more pessimistic forecasts.

For example, the head of the center economic research Institute of Globalization and Social Movements Vasily Koltashov predicts a weakening of the national currency to 90 rubles per dollar, and oil to 23-25 ​​dollars per barrel against today’s 50 dollars.

Among the factors influencing the value of the ruble in the future, experts name not only the policies of the Russian government before the elections, but also current price for oil, US elections, which will determine the future financial policy this country, and the economic situation in China.

The change in the value of the ruble against the dollar may also be affected by the state’s methods of combating the budget deficit and other internal economic factors.

“There is a seasonality factor, which always affects one way or another at the end of the third and beginning of the fourth quarter,” federal expert Artem Genkin tells Notes. — People return from vacation and start spending within the country more money, energy consumption is increasing, and prices for seasonal food are rising. All this causes a certain weakening of the national currency, accelerates inflation and ultimately can stimulate the withdrawal of funds from the national currency, which is losing its value. monetary unit into foreign currency assets."

Another important factor in ruble fluctuations is the injection of money into Sevastopol and Crimea, the expert believes.

“One of the factors may be measures to create infrastructure and transport in the territory of Sevastopol and the Republic of Crimea,” he adds. “And this will also affect the country and will contribute to inflation and exchange rate changes throughout Russia.”

Ruble in the fall of 2016, inevitably affecting the interests and all areas of life of every Russian - his salary, food prices, basic necessities and other goods.

According to Wikipedia, unlike inflation, which is spontaneous and uncontrollable, the devaluation of the ruble is carried out by the state, lowering the value of its own currency relative to the currencies of other countries.

Devaluation of the ruble in the fall of 2016 - reasons

As a rule, a whole set of reasons leads to the devaluation of the national currency, including:

• outflow of capital from the country;
• increase or decrease in oil prices;
• Federal Reserve rate adjustments;
• introduction or cancellation economic sanctions;
• the situation in Ukraine and its impact on our country;
• many other factors.

It is extremely difficult in the current conditions to make accurate forecasts regarding the factors listed above; the definition of the situation is ambiguous. In the event that the development of these events occurs contrary to the interests of Russia, then the rise in price of the ruble in such a situation is unlikely.

Devaluation is a fairly long process, and accordingly, overcoming its negative consequences will not be quick.

Today everyone is extremely concerned about the question: will there be a devaluation of the ruble in 2016?

According to experts, devaluation in Russia is possible if an appropriate combination of the following reasons occurs:

• Consumer activity of the population is falling due to the financial difficulties that citizens are experiencing. This situation provokes a weakening of the national currency.
• The cyclical nature of the economy leads to the fact that after some time the rise in prices for raw materials is replaced by an inevitable decline. As a result, in order to replenish state budget reserves, the government is forced to resort to devaluation.
• Economic sanctions against Russia, adopted by many countries around the world, have a negative impact on the already difficult economic situation in the state.
• Domestic oligarchs, defending their interests, put too much pressure on big business. As a result, illegal privatization inevitably weakens the country's financial system, which naturally has a negative impact on the exchange rate.

So, the economic crisis in Russia is still ongoing. The Ministry of Finance has not yet presented a way out of the current difficult situation. Therefore, at the moment there is still no confidence that the devaluation of the ruble in 2016 will bypass the country.

Devaluation forecast for 2016

It has now become completely obvious that the October 2016 devaluation never took place. However, the year is still not over and the situation cannot yet be called absolutely clear and predictable.

Several factors that can influence the situation:

We all remember examples when the leadership of our country promised that there would be no devaluation of the ruble, but it nevertheless happened, and even ended in default, as happened in 1998. But those were very difficult nineties.

Things have changed since then, so let's hope everything goes well this time. Moreover, as mentioned above, economic processes are cyclical in nature, and good times will definitely await us after the crisis.

When respectable men in suits talk about devaluation and inflation on television, the Russian audience is divided into three main groups. The first ones begin to panic and think chaotically about where to put their savings, because they already had a bad experience in 1998 and 2008. The latter, having no family or gold reserves, believe that they have nothing to lose. The third, a very small group, believes that the situation is under control by the authorities and is about to improve.

Which of them is closer to the truth?

What is devaluation in simple terms

All states take part in trading operations on the world market. To simplify the system when making transactions, partners set a standard convertible currency, for Russia this standard is the US dollar and the euro.

Previously, before the “gold standard” was abolished, devaluation of the ruble was considered to be a decrease in the value of the national currency in relation to gold. Now the situation has changed.

Another significant change occurred in the fall of 2014. Until this moment, the value of the ruble was regulated and fixed Central Bank(Central Bank) of Russia, now the domestic currency is deprived of this support.

Many Russians who are not professionally involved in economics confuse devaluation with default and redenomination.

I must say that these concepts are completely different, so:

1. Devaluation today is considered to be a decrease in the value of the ruble in relation to the currencies of other countries.
2. Denomination is a change in the number of zeros by banknote, which Russians encountered in the nineties of the twentieth century.
3. Default is a more critical situation in which the state is unable to fulfill financial obligations, including external debts.

The reasons for the depreciation of the national currency may be different. These include the weakening of the economy as a result of natural disasters, sanctions, wars, that is, an increase in government expenses that are no longer covered by income.

There is another situation: the state deliberately lowers the value of its currency, which allows it to receive significant profits from the export of goods. For example, the price of oil in dollars has dropped significantly, but since there are now more rubles in dollars, the change in this price in rubles is not so significant.

Thus, devaluation may be beneficial to the state.

Will there be a devaluation in 2019?

Along with Russians, foreign citizens are also asking this question, out of sympathy or for a completely opposite reason. No one can give an unambiguous answer with an absolute guarantee yet, but the months that have passed since the beginning of the year demonstrate actual indicators.

As the graph shows, the course American currency heavily dependent on sanctions coming mainly from the United States. The strongest speculative factor is the purchase limit government debt For American companies. In other words, the popular strategy " carry trade“to buy Russian ones for dollars and obtain a decent return by world standards may cease to exist due to legislative restrictions. All this encourages foreign investors to sell Russian bonds, buy dollars and withdraw them from our securities market.

Most analysts are considering investments in Russian economy like enough risky investments, which means the outflow of capital from the country will continue to one degree or another.

Whether or not there will be a devaluation this year depends on many factors:

• outflow of capital from the country;
• oil prices;
• imposition or lifting of sanctions;
• Fed rate adjustments;
• the conduct or cessation of hostilities in Ukraine and the degree of participation of our country in these events.

It is unlikely that anyone will take responsibility for accurately predicting these changes, but if they are not in a positive direction for Russia, it will be impossible to count on stability, much less an appreciation of the ruble.

It must be said that devaluation is not a one-day process, which means that it will not be possible to solve the problem in one day. According to expert forecasts, no sharp fluctuations are expected this year, although in the event of new drops in oil prices, the dollar exchange rate could rise to 100 rubles.

How will loans be issued?

According to economic professionals, this year another reason for devaluation will be added: the outdated banking system, which requires mandatory adjustment. One of the main banking issues that concerns the population is the possibility of obtaining loans.

During times of fluctuations in the value of the ruble, the population is afraid to trust their savings to banks, as a result of which they are withdrawn from circulation. Money and the resources available to banks will become noticeably scarcer. These events lead to certain changes in the lending system.

Last year was definitely difficult for the Russian economy, which inevitably affected banks and financial institutions. Many of these institutions were unable to stay afloat during the crisis; as a result, the number of organizations providing loans will decrease noticeably in 2019.

In this regard, the following changes are expected for borrowers:

1. Promotion base rates and percent.
2. Inclusion of a number of issuance and service fees.
3. Age category of borrowers (some organizations will consider customer applications only after they reach the age of twenty-five).
4. Voluntary – compulsory loan insurance.

It should be taken into account that the demand for loans will also decrease. Not everyone will risk burdening themselves with such obligations in such an unstable period.

If Western sanctions are lifted, it will be possible to count on the loyalty of banks.

Learn about the denomination or devaluation of the ruble from the video.

How to save money during currency fluctuations

To preserve savings in the current difficult circumstances, analysts and economists recommend shares of companies producing exports, precious metals, real estate and foreign currency.

Many experts consider it promising to spend capital on opening a well-planned and thoughtful business, since the number of competitors in given time will be noticeably reduced.

Upon detailed study, it becomes clear that with devaluation, import prices increase, and accordingly, the demand for domestically produced goods will increase.

The prices of imported cars, electronics, and household appliances will rise significantly, so now is the time to spend the savings accumulated for these purposes. Only without fanaticism, because many remember how in 2014, panicked people began to buy useless things in unnecessary quantities, and then did not know how to get rid of them.

Today, “multi-currency” accounts are very popular, the owners of which have the opportunity to transfer their savings from one currency to another, taking into account the favorable exchange rate.

Consequences of the devaluation of the Russian ruble

Probably everyone is familiar with the situation when you really want something, and a person, succumbing to temptation, makes an unplanned expensive purchase. Then, for a certain time, he has to deny himself something, restoring the family budget.

The same thing happens with state budget, in which a gap has formed and will take time to patch.

The devaluation consequences could be compared to two sides of a coin, if it had different sides.

So, the negative consequences:

1. Increase in prices for goods and services at the same salaries.
2. Loss of confidence in the weakened ruble.
3. Depreciation of bank deposits.
4. Increase in inflation.
5. Decline purchasing power
6. Unemployment. After all, many enterprises use imported raw materials, equipment, materials, but due to rising prices they will be forced to reduce or completely stop their activities.

We should also not forget that when a person lacks funds, he often begins to take bribes and steal. This means there is a high probability of increased crime and corruption.

And now about the good stuff:

1. Stimulation of domestic production and import substitution.
2. Development of tourism in Russia, because Holidays abroad will become an expensive pleasure.
3. If imports are abandoned, more money will remain in the state treasury.

Even a child, counting point by point, will notice that Negative consequences prevail.

Possible scenarios and expert forecasts

As for Russian analysts and experts, the forecasts here are very diverse, and mostly short-term. Even the most experienced specialists find it difficult to predict events for the second half of the current year and next year.

Head of the Ministry economic development, Alexey Ulyukaev, believes that this year the dollar will be valued at around 63 - 64 rubles.

Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin's forecasts are not so optimistic: he predicts a collapse of the Russian economy and a decline in the standard of living of the population. Economist Vladimir Tikhomirov and Nikolai Salabuto agree with him, expecting the dollar to rise in price to two hundred rubles per unit.

The famous economist Mikhail Khazin predicts the collapse of not only the Russian, but also the entire world economy and banking policy.

On one point, the opinions of domestic experts are similar: everything will depend on the price of “black gold”, around which the Russian economy is currently revolved.

The fall in the ruble exchange rate affects the economic situation of our neighbors and partners. In Belarus, the ruble is also devaluing, despite President Lukashenko’s assurances that there will be no devaluation in the country this year.

However, experts and analysts have a different opinion. Belarus’s dependence on Russia is obvious, because our country is the main buyer of Belarusian exports, and if their ruble is more stable than ours, trade will simply become unprofitable for Russians, and Belarus risks losing a partner.

In addition, the increase in the dollar exchange rate is dictated by world oil prices, which the Belarusian government is unlikely to be able to influence.

Another factor is the impending denomination Belarusian ruble, and in what direction prices and salaries will be rounded is unknown to the population, which means that people are worried and begin to withdraw money from bank circulation and hide it in stockings. As mentioned above, the withdrawal of money from circulation is one of the reasons for devaluation.

All experts are confident that Belarus cannot avoid devaluation this year, but no sharp fluctuations are expected. Bankers and financiers completely agree with them.

So what does the ruble exchange rate depend on?

The exchange rate of the national currency is influenced by a combination of the following factors:

1. Stable political situation in the country, attracting partners and investors.
2. Trust in national currency, both the local population and foreign citizens.
3. Development of production, industry and agriculture.
4. Oil prices on the world market.

Based on this list, a lot still needs to be established in our country, which means that all Russians will have to work hard.

In contact with

The current stabilization of the foreign exchange market gives hope for a quick restoration of the position of the Russian currency.

However, oil prices have fallen again, raising concerns about the future of the ruble. In addition, the Central Bank is planning a significant emission of money supply, which may affect the dollar exchange rate. The influence of these factors determines whether there will be a devaluation of the ruble in Russia in 2016.

Internal factors

The Central Bank plans in December current year additionally print 1 trillion rubles. According to the head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, this event is associated with the traditional increase in demand for cash at the end of the year. At the same time, the situation at foreign exchange market will remain unchanged, notes the head of the Central Bank. In addition, it became known about the Central Bank’s decision on the issue of ruble denomination in 2016.

Expert Evgeny Egorov agrees with the position of the Central Bank. In December, population activity increases, which is also reflected in more purchases. In its turn banking institutions stock up on cash to fully meet demand from their customers.

As a result of the issue, the money supply will remain unchanged, says Raiffeisenbank analyst Denis Poryvay. The Ministry of Finance will be able to withdraw deposits for a similar amount from banking system, eventually non-cash money will be replaced by cash.

The government plans to finance the budget deficit from the Reserve Fund, and not from emission money. This factor will not lead to a devaluation of the ruble, unlike a possible collapse of the oil market.

One more internal factor, which could lead to devaluation, is the need to balance the budget deficit. According to the Ministry of Finance, as a result of the implementation of the negative scenario, the budget could receive up to 1 trillion rubles less next year. One of the sources of increasing revenues is devaluation, which will lead to an increase in revenues from energy exports.

Oil needle

The dynamics of the ruble will largely depend on changes in oil prices.

After a long period of fluctuations around the price of $50 per barrel, “black gold” again rushed down. In such conditions, it will be difficult for the ruble to maintain its position.

The Ministry of Economic Development expects the average dollar exchange rate next year to be 63.3 rubles/dollar. At the same time, the forecast price of oil is $50/barrel. In November of this year, prices on the oil market have already dropped to $45 per barrel, and in the current conditions this trend may continue.

The main reason is excess oil production. Major exporters continue to compete fiercely for global market share, including through price factors. The situation is also fueled by the imminent return of Iranian oil supplies, which will be another blow to the market.

If the cost of 1 barrel continues to decline to $40 and remains at this level During 2016, the Russian economy will face another stage of shocks, warn the Ministry of Economic Development. The implementation of this scenario will lead to a sharp increase in the dollar exchange rate to 75 rubles/dollar. Moreover, in such conditions, the resumption economic growth will be delayed for the long term.

According to an analyst at Nordea Bank, the dependence of the ruble on oil prices has reached 88%. With a significant decrease in prices for “black gold”, the Russian currency loses its value. According to the calculations of the chief economist of Alfa Bank, Natalia Orlova, the price will fall by 10 dollars per barrel. leads to an increase in the exchange rate by 5 rubles/dollar.

The dynamics of the oil market will determine whether there will be a devaluation of the ruble in 2016. The base scenario assumes that prices remain at $50 per barrel. In this case, the Russian currency will be able to strengthen to 63.3 rubles/dollar, the Ministry of Economic Development is confident. However, current trends in the “black gold” market indicate a possible fall in prices.

If the price of “black gold” drops to $40 per barrel, the next stage of devaluation cannot be avoided. Experts from the Ministry of Economic Development expect the exchange rate to be 75 rubles/dollar. when implementing this scenario.