The summer vacation season that has come to an end is considered a kind of "marker" for foreign exchange market. It is known that tourists mostly leave Russia, so vacationers increase the demand for dollars and euros, which should have a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate. "Lenta.ru" talked to foreign exchange market analysts to understand how seasonal factors are related to prices for dollars and euros.

Despite their impact on exchange rates, seasonal or cyclical, the causes of fluctuations are more likely to be the so-called second-order factors. They are able to provide temporary support to the ruble, but they are not able to form a serious trend. And, before talking about them, it is worth recalling the primary factors that affect the exchange rate.

Why the ruble depends on oil

The first fundamental factor that affects the exchange rate is the trade balance (the difference between the value of exports from a country and imports into it). So, Russian companies sell oil, gas and other raw materials mainly for dollars and euros, but in Russia they pay taxes and salaries to their employees in rubles.
Since oil and gas make up a significant part of Russian exports and are the source of almost half of the income state budget, they are considered the most important factor affecting foreign exchange earnings. Obviously, the amount of foreign exchange earnings depends on the cost of oil. Thus, the low cost of raw materials resulted in a significant devaluation of the ruble at the end of 2008.

In this regard, a reasonable question arises: why did the ruble not strengthen so much in 2012 (at the beginning of the year, the US dollar was trading at a price of 31.2 rubles, and on September 14 it cost 30.65 rubles), although oil held at a record level ? Here it is worth remembering another factor: the outflow of capital. In the first six months of this year, 42.4 billion dollars came from Russia. There are several reasons for this state of affairs, the main of which are a poor investment climate, political instability and corruption (dishonest officials are trying to withdraw money abroad and buy up foreign currency).

The exchange rate of the national currency is also influenced by numerous indicators that indicate the state of the country's economy: performance data, business activity index, information about housing construction, volumes of retail sales. The value of money is strongly influenced by speculation, as well as the expectations of companies and the public about the growth or fall of rates. Dmitry Kharlampiev from Petrocommerce Bank recalls that during the crisis period of 2008-2009, the share of deposits individuals in foreign currency increased from 13.5 percent to 34 percent. Thus, additional domestic demand for foreign currency amounted to about $40 billion, which put pressure on the ruble exchange rate.

The exchange rate of the national currency is also influenced by politics Central Bank. The Central Bank conducts currency interventions: it sells dollars and euros to support the ruble exchange rate, and buys up the currency when it does not want the national money to strengthen excessively. Another tool is the refinancing rate. If the Bank of Russia raises the rate, then the cost of borrowings for commercial financial institutions in the country grows. Consequently, the profitability of funds in Russia is increasing, and investors are sending more money to the Russian economy, and this spurs the demand for rubles. In addition, by raising the refinancing rate, the Central Bank reduces the issue of money, this reduces the supply of the ruble and, as a result, raises its value.

Finally, an increase in the refinancing rate reduces inflation, which is also a factor in the value of a currency. The higher the rise in prices, the faster the national currency becomes cheaper and the more its exchange rate falls. Of course, inflation is affected not only by the Central Bank's refinancing rate. For example, food inflation caused by drought can spur price growth and collapse the ruble exchange rate. Of the general economic factors, unemployment and GDP can also be distinguished: a decrease in the first and an increase in the second raises the exchange rate of the national currency.

Obviously, most of these factors are not able to instantly affect the change in the exchange rate. So, for example, the increase in the supply of the ruble after the reduction of the Central Bank rate will be gradual, and therefore its exchange rate should fall slowly. However, international investors, traders and many market participants who know that after some time they will need foreign currency (and it is better to buy it at a lower price), "win back" economic news immediately. For example, on September 14, after news from the United States about keeping the discount rate at a minimum and new injections into the economy, the dollar against the ruble immediately forty kopecks.

Second order factors

The above factors are considered the main ones. In turn, the reasons that can be called seasonal or cyclical are considered by most analysts to be secondary. In their opinion, they can fluctuate the exchange rate for some time, but seasonal factors are not capable of forming a certain trend, unlike the same reduction in the refinancing rate. Experts interviewed by Lentoy.ru estimate the change in the ruble exchange rate under the influence of cyclical factors at 0.5-1.5 percent, but no more.

One of these factors is the New Year holidays, when citizens start buying more goods supplied by importers, which sharply raises the demand for the currency and weakens the ruble. However, according to Anton Startsev, a leading analyst at IF OLMA, it is impossible to speak of a statistically significant confirmation of this trend. He cites the following statistics: for the period from 2002 to 2011 inclusive, the depreciation of the ruble against the US dollar in December was recorded in six cases out of ten. The average weakening was 1.2 percent. Startsev notes that if we exclude the crisis year of 2008 from the statistics (then there was a large-scale devaluation of the ruble), then it will look even less convincing.

In addition, by the end of the year, the ruble exchange rate is negatively affected by the fact that it is in the fourth quarter that a significant part of the budget is being used. Spending from the state treasury dramatically increases the amount of ruble liquidity in the economy. Dmitry Glubokovsky, an analyst at Aton Management, notes that some of these funds are used in the interests of individual businessmen (in other words, we are talking about corruption), who then withdraw money abroad. This, in turn, spurs the demand for foreign currency and puts a lot of pressure on the ruble.

However, at the end of the year, another seasonal factor has an impact - the end of the reporting period and the payment of taxes. Russian companies. This increases the demand for ruble liquidity, which has a positive effect on the ruble exchange rate. According to Startsev, this trend is noticeable at the end of each month, but to a greater extent - at the end of the quarter.

"On the whole, only taxable period is the most predictable and regular event that makes it possible to unequivocally assess the likelihood of a possible strengthening of the ruble," notes Alexei Yegorov, an analyst at Nomos Bank. He names another factor: the period of dividend payments by Russian companies. Since a number of their owners are not residents, they received money is converted into foreign currency, which temporarily lowers the ruble exchange rate.

In addition, the demand for foreign currency is spurred by payments on foreign debts. According to Deputy CEO on investment analysis IC "Zerich Capital Management" Andrey Vernikov, in recent years, the peak of these payments falls on September and March - therefore, the demand for currency during this period is high. He notes that a liquidity shortage usually forms by the middle of the year, which also spurs demand for foreign currency.

As for the vacation period and the possible pressure on the ruble associated with it, analysts do not consider it to be a significant reason. Firstly, this period is too spread out: the holiday season starts in May and lasts until September, and besides, many people go abroad both in autumn and in winter. Secondly, within the framework Russian economy in general, spending by tourists is not very significant. But experts agree that, in general, the trade balance (and hence the exchange rate of the ruble), any sector of the economy in which Russia is a net importer, including tourism, is negatively affected.

Thus, other things being equal, we can say that the national currency can grow at the end of each month, and especially strongly at the end of the quarter. Expect it to go down in price new year holidays, as well as news about the payment of dividends. However, due to the large number of mutually influencing and mutually intersecting factors, "ideal conditions" should not be expected.

What affects the dollar exchange rate? After all, it is the US currency that is the main exchange commodity presented in many markets. And there are many reasons for such popularity, among which is the relative instability (volatility) of its course.

In order to predict other currencies, you should know the main reasons and factors that affect how demand and supply for this currency will be formed.

What affects the dollar exchange rate? Reasons and factors affecting the value of the US currency

The dollar exchange rate changes regularly, which makes it possible, with the right choice of the direction of the transaction, to make pretty good money.

But for the correct choice of this direction, it is necessary to clearly understand what causes and factors most influence the fact that the trend of the dollar against various currencies, including the ruble, is constantly changing. It is the consideration of such factors that allows you to make for maximum income.

Today, there are two main groups of those factors that have the main influence on the formation of a trend in the US currency:

• the first includes events occurring directly within the state,
• and the second group is formed from external factors that somehow put pressure on the formation of the value of the national currency.

So, what influences the dollar exchange rate from the inside, that is, what internal government reasons and factors put pressure on the formation of the value of the dollar. These factors can be attributed absolutely, which relate to financial sphere and the economic condition of the United States. In addition, it is necessary to take into account political changes that affect the economic spectrum in one way or another.

Do economic data influence how the dollar exchange rate changes?

The next factor influencing the process of forming the dollar exchange rate is publications.

At the same time, it should be taken into account that not all indices can cause sharp changes in the exchange rate of the US currency, so you need to pay attention only to the most significant of them.

These indices include:

• industrial and consumer price index,
• the rate of inflation and unemployment,
• balance of payments indicator
• and some other indicators of macroeconomics.

The influence of financial factors - as another reason for the dollar exchange rate fluctuations

The dollar exchange rate is also influenced by financial factors that characterize the state of the sector banking services within the state as a whole.

These factors include:

• the stability of the functioning of institutions providing financial services,
• as well as changes in indicators of the volume of money supply,
• discount rate, interest on securities, and so on.

Political factors, no matter how strange it may seem, are also capable of shaping the dollar. Well, this is due to the fact that each of the politicians has his own program for the development of the economy, and his coming to power sometimes radically changes economic situation in the country. The reasons and factors influencing the dollar exchange rate may also be of a different nature, not related to politics and finance (at least not directly).

For example, it can be all kinds of natural disasters and disasters (earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, etc.). Also, do not discount reports of terrorist attacks - remember what a collapse of the dollar was observed after the events in New York on September 11, 2001.

The main indicator that affects the exchange rate fluctuations of the dollar today

And finally, the most important indicator on which the dollar exchange rate depends is discount rate US Fed. If this rate increases, then the dollar exchange rate increases accordingly, and, conversely, if it decreases, the price of the US currency will decrease.

What affects the dollar exchange rate within the state, we have considered, now let's see what causes and factors put pressure on the US currency from the outside. These factors include events that take place outside the issuer's country, but in one way or another affect the value of its national currency.

What external causes and factors affect the dollar exchange rate?

The main external factor is confidence in the currency. This factor is capable of literally collapsing the existing exchange rate, for this it will be enough for one of the major market participants to declare their refusal to use the US dollar as an international settlement currency.

You don't have to look far for a clear example - Norway and Iraq did this in their time, switching to the euro when paying for oil.

Also, one of the fundamental external factors that shape the dollar's exchange rate is the price of gold and crude oil.

For the simple reason that the United States is one of the largest consumers of oil in the world, it inevitably leads to the depreciation of their currency. Exactly the same dependence is observed during changes in the value of gold.

And, of course, the participation of the United States in all kinds of military conflicts (Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria), regardless of the outcome (success/defeat), also have some influence, causing a reaction in the dollar exchange rate.

What affects the exchange rate of the dollar against the euro?

The most important of the factors of key importance in the influence of the dollar against the euro is the US monetary policy.

The instruments of such a policy used by the Central Bank of the country are:

• open market operations (operations conducted on the open market);
• the discount rate (regulation of the discount rate);
• reserve requirements (change the levels of reserve requirements).

discount rate and reserve requirements the Federal Reserve is in charge, and open market operations are controlled by the Federal Committee of this market. The use of these instruments has a strong impact on the amount of funds held by depository institutions in the accounts of the Federal reserve bank, which leads to a change interest rates mainly by short-term loans and causes exchange rate fluctuations.

The monetary policy of the Eurozone, which also affects the exchange rate of $ against the euro, is determined by the European central bank (European Central Bank).

The main goal of this policy is to ensure and maintain price stability based on price events in the future, and is defined as an increase in the Harmonized Consumer Price Index.

Another aspect of price stability is monetary growth with a target level set by the ECB of 4.5% annually. In addition, a 3-month Eurodeposit "EURIBOR" - placement of deposits in banks located outside the EU zone, as well as 10-year Government Obligations, which are the differences between the Eurozone and the USA, have a 3-month Eurodeposit "EURIBOR" on the dollar against the euro.

What affects the dollar against the ruble?

In Russia, they also monitor changes in exchange rates and are interested in what reasons and factors have the most significant impact on the attitude. There are two groups of factors that influence the national currency in Russia - those that contribute to strengthening and that have a negative impact.

To the first group of factors One of the factors that contribute to the strengthening of the ruble, of course, is the increase in world prices for crude oil, since the profit received from its sales is one of the main parts of the state budget. For this reason, any fluctuation towards an increase in the cost of oil will have a positive effect on the ruble exchange rate.

This group of factors includes:

• confidence of enterprises and the population in the ruble,
• increasing domestic production and gradually reducing imports,
• investing in the country's economy of non-resident capital,
• and a stable political environment.

The second group of factors negatively affecting the ruble exchange rate includes:

• the panic of the population,
• massively buying euros and dollars,
• stagnation of the economy (lack of own production and an increase in imports),
• the absence of dollar interventions by the Central Bank,
• slowdown in GDP growth,
• as well as the purchase of currency (dollars, euros), which will later be transferred to offshore zones.

All this undoubtedly has the most significant impact on the dollar against the ruble.

Exchange rates and their trends on the stock exchange. Reasons for their hesitation

Everyone has heard that the exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar is determined by world oil prices. The degree of this dependence is still the subject of heated debate, even among professional economists. Recently, the leadership of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Finance has been increasingly declaring that the ruble exchange rate will be “decoupled” from oil and stabilization financial system. Is this really so and what does the ruble exchange rate depend on to the greatest extent?

The main sources of foreign exchange in Russia

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Unlike reserve currencies backed by economic potential and high capitalization stock markets issuer countries, the role of the ruble in the world economy is extremely insignificant. It is not used in international trade and is not included in the foreign exchange reserves of central banks. Relatively high demand is for debt instruments of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, but only as one of the components of risky investment.

Some opposition economists claim that it is a branch of foreign structures and is engaged in issuing the ruble for a specific amount of dollar supply. In such reasoning, the cause is confused with the effect. The market price, including foreign currency, is determined by the ratio of supply and demand. Indirectly, this can be judged by the balance of foreign economic activity. Simply put, the greater the excess of exports over imports, the greater the supply of currency on the market and the stronger the ruble should be, and vice versa. The monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Finance, as well as the migration of capital, for example, the demand for government funds from non-residents, have a serious impact. In the structure of Russian exports, slightly more than 50% is accounted for by mineral resources (of which 98% is oil), i.e. oil makes up exactly half of exports. Many sources publish other data, according to which the share of mineral resources reaches 60%. This is explained by the fact that they do not take into account the so-called. a hidden section containing military and dual-use products.

Theoretically, this follows:

• The ruble against the dollar and the euro should be inversely correlated with the price of oil;
• The degree of this should be maximum in the event of a shortage of currency in the market and minimum in its absence;
• Approaching the correlation to 100% indicates an artificial deficit of the currency and manipulation of the ruble exchange rate;
• The exchange rates of the ruble against currencies that are not related to settlement currencies may have other patterns.

How much does the ruble depend on oil?

To test these conclusions, let's look at the charts of the USDRUB pair and Brent oil for a long period, including historical highs of oil.

It can be seen from them that a pronounced correlation between oil and the ruble/dollar exchange rate was observed for a relatively short period of time: in 2014–2016. At the same time, a sharper drop in oil prices occurred during the 2008-2009 crisis. Then the short-term ruble from 23 to 36.5 per dollar in percentage terms (less than 60%) was less than in 2014–2015 (more than 100%). Something else is even more interesting. In 2011, the ruble strengthened again to 27 per dollar against the backdrop of rising oil to the range of $100-$120 per barrel. Oil remained in this interval until September 2014, but by September 1, 2014, the ruble had already fallen to 37 per dollar, i.e. even lower than with oil at $ 36 in 2008. One could assume that the previous the crisis led to the depletion of foreign exchange reserves, and the ruble exchange rate became impossible to maintain. But it's not.

The resources of the Stabilization Fund, equal to $156.8 billion as of 01.01.2008, were divided between the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund on 01.02.2008. As of September 1, 2014, the funds of these funds amounted to $177 billion. As of January 1, 2008, the reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the form of foreign currency amounted to $466 billion, and as of September 1, 2014 - $406 billion. Thus, even after the crisis years, there was no foreign currency deficit in the country, and the ruble fell 37% amid exceptionally high oil prices. By December 2014, more and more reports began to appear that banks were running out of currency reserves, exchange offices were closing, and long queues were lining up for those still working. It was during this period that an exceptionally high correlation between oil price fluctuations and the ruble exchange rate became noticeable, it could be seen in real time, watching the minute charts.

Banks: their own game and risk avoidance

According to information received by Fontanka.ru from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and a number of commercial banks, in 2014 currency transactions Sberbank earned 182 billion rubles. profit (before tax), Alfa-Bank 144 billion rubles. In particular, on these operations, Alfa-Bank successfully "scrolled" 57.7 billion rubles allocated in September from the Central Bank to the Baltic Bank. The funds were used for their intended purpose only in December, when the ruble exchange rate was more than 60 per dollar. On December 16, when the rate briefly rose to almost 80, a real battle took place on the Moscow Exchange between commercial banks and the Central Bank, which sold a total of $ 3.3 billion during the currency exchange.

Similar events took place in the winter of 2015–2016. In February 2016, the chairman of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation A. Bastrykin stated that the responsibility for the collapse of the ruble was commercial banks. According to him, banks speculated in currency as if they knew the future rate in advance, investing almost 100% of the funds available to them in transactions. But, most likely, it was the other way around: the details of the change in the rate were formed by the banks themselves, tracking the quotes of the Brent futures using trading ones. A reasonable question: what external conditions were then and are absent now? Why did banks curtail active foreign exchange transactions? Suffice it to recall that the peaks of the collapse of the ruble, as well as the shortage of currency in exchangers, coincided in time with the aggravation of the situation in Eastern Ukraine, the expansion of the US and EU sanctions against Russia, and rumors about the imminent shutdown of the Russian banking system from SWIFT. That is, banks insured themselves against political ones.

So what determines the exchange rate of the ruble?

Of course, it cannot be denied that the ruble depends on oil. Being the main export commodity, oil forms foreign exchange reserves and provides a safety margin for the financial system. But since the beginning of 2017, there has been practically no correlation between the USDRUB pair and oil quotes. The current policy of the Ministry of Finance involves active purchases of dollars at oil prices above $40 per barrel. In 2017, the Ministry of Finance spent a little more than $14 billion to replenish foreign exchange reserves, and the monthly schedule of purchases almost exactly repeated the growth in oil prices:

No less active purchases continue at the present time, for which the amount of 19 billion rubles is allocated. in a day. For this reason, the ruble is firmly established above 60 per dollar, although at current oil prices it could be much firmer. By the way, the myth of a hard peg of the ruble to oil has been promoted for several years in a row by one of the leaders of the Carnegie Moscow Center Andrei Movchan. The ICC is an affiliate of the international non-governmental organization Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Oil giants BP and Chevron are among the fund's main sponsors, and Russian economists who argue for the ruble's dependence on oil are mostly closely associated with this fund.

According to the calculations of A. Movchan himself, based on data for the period from early 2005 to mid-2017, the correlation coefficient between USD and Brent is -0.52, which, in principle, should be in accordance with the structure of Russia's foreign trade. The linear regression chart popular on the Internet with a correlation of -0.97 is based on data from 01/01/2014 to 03/13/2015, i.e. for the very period when the main volumes of speculation took place on the market. With oil at $75, we get the USDRUB rate equal to 48, which is already very far from reality.

But there is an instrument with which the ruble correlates better than with oil (the last 3 years within 0.9-0.95). This is the South African rand. South Africa is a typical commodity country, although the structure of exports there is completely different: mainly metals and diamonds. The traditionally high key (currently 6.5%) attracts risky investors to carry trade operations. Interest in them especially increases during periods of stability in the markets. In this respect, there is also a similarity with the ruble.

An anomalous fall in the correlation occurred in the 2nd half of 2014 - 1st half of 2015. Obviously, this was due to the specifics of the already mentioned banking crisis in Russia.

Thus, from the analysis of long-term data, it follows that the inverse correlation between the ruble and oil is exaggerated and is most clearly manifested only during periods of stock market panic, when there is a clear shortage of currency. In the rest of the time, a much more important factor is the willingness of investors to work with risky assets, which include both the assets of the BRICS countries (including Russia) and oil. And do not forget to keep in mind the policy of the Ministry of Finance, which is heading for a systematic

Greetings! Over the past 10 years, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the ruble has changed so sharply and so often that the whole of Russia has felt the negative consequences of the “currency swing”. In July 2008, one dollar was worth a little more than 23 rubles on the interbank market. At the beginning of 2015, the exchange rate was already 65, and just five months later, the dollar fell to 50 rubles.

The next "peak" was in February 2016. Then for $1 they gave more than 77 rubles. And, finally, today the rate fell below the psychological mark of 65 rubles.

What provokes such sharp jumps? Today we will talk about what determines the exchange rate in Russia and other countries.

The world uses the most different modes exchange rate. But in almost all countries, the market itself sets the course. Usually, the Central Banks only slightly adjust the exchange rate (somewhere symbolically, somewhere more severely).

When central bank intervention is minimal, then in simple words this is called a "floating rate". In Russia, the ruble exchange rate was rigidly fixed from 1995 to 1998. And was under control from 2000 to 2008.

After the crisis, when to maintain the exchange rate, it was decided to release the ruble into "free floating". But in fact, this happened only in December 2014.

What factors affect the exchange rate

Trade balance of the state

The trade balance is the ratio of import and export operations. The export of goods attracts foreign currency to the country (in Russia, this primarily applies to petroleum products). Imports, on the contrary, “wash out” foreign currency from the country.

From this follows a logical conclusion. If the state imports more than it exports (the trade balance is negative), then the national currency becomes cheaper due to the high demand for foreign currency. And vice versa: when a country sells more than it buys, it has an abundance of foreign currencies. And the rate of the "native" currency is usually strengthened.

By the way, a positive trade balance is also not always good. Especially if the difference between exports and imports is too great. The price of domestic goods for other countries becomes too high. Because of this, they lose their competitiveness in foreign markets.

The simplest example of the "for dummies" format. In the event of a sharp strengthening of the yuan, goods on Aliexpress and others like it immediately rise in price for Russians and residents of neighboring countries.

Store sales are falling, China's GDP is shrinking, competitors are pushing the Chinese out of the market.

At different times, this happened in China, and in Japan, and in the UK, and in the USA. In this case, the Central Banks of the countries are purposefully trying to "drop", and not to strengthen the national currency.

Important point! Ideally, the country's trade balance should tend to zero (exports are equal to imports). With this ratio, the national currency rate will remain more or less stable.

Macroeconomic indicators

The volume of GDP, the unemployment rate and also seriously affect the exchange rate. In simple words, if the country has high inflation and unemployment, then the national currency becomes cheaper. But the growth of production strengthens and supports it.

On the exchange rate influence not only actual indicators, but also forecast ones. For example, if the officially published figures have serious discrepancies with the forecast, this is guaranteed to cause a sharp jump in the exchange rate.

Actions of the Central Bank

In the arsenal of Central Banks there are several tools with which you can influence the exchange rate. I won't go into detail on each. We will analyze only the “four” of the most significant.

• Currency interventions

With the help of foreign exchange interventions, the Central Bank can temporarily weaken or strengthen the national currency. He needs large enough lots of foreign currency (at a low or high rate).

The same laws apply here as in the regular market. When demand exceeds supply, goods become more expensive and vice versa.

Foreign exchange interventions are possible only if the country has decent currency reserves. The larger this reserve, the easier it is for the Central Bank to regulate the exchange rate.

It is clear that the effect of VI is always temporary and short-term.

• Additional money issue

Almost always, additional money printing makes the national currency cheaper. The larger the money supply, the lower the value of money.

But there are exceptions to this rule as well. For example, we know from YouTube videos that the US Federal Reserve is constantly printing new dollars. Nevertheless, the "buck" remains one of the strongest world currencies. The thing is that the United States is very competently using other instruments of monetary regulation that curb inflation.

• Discount rate value

The value is set by the Central Bank. Just in case, let me remind you: the discount rate is the percentage at which the Central Bank issues loans to commercial banks.

Lower cost of loans for the population and business - more money flows into the economy - higher production of goods and services - more stable exchange rate. Therefore, the strongest currencies tend to be in countries with low discount rates.

• Operations with debt obligations

Any Central Bank can raise the rate of the national currency of the state internal loan or treasury bonds. Securities promise their owners a fixed income and potential growth in value. The state sells debt obligations to both individuals and legal entities.

Why does the national currency rise in price because of this? Buying bonds takes away part of the money supply from the population. There is less national currency on the market - and its value automatically increases.

If it is necessary to “drop” the rate of the “native” currency, the Central Bank, on the contrary, begins to actively buy up its own obligations. The money supply in the market "swells" - the value of the national currency falls.

Public confidence in the national currency

If the population of the country prefers to keep money in foreign currency(which has already begun to happen in Russia), then there will always be an increased demand for it. This puts additional pressure on the Russian ruble.

Sometimes panic and rush demand are factors that affect the exchange rate more than objective reasons! True, the "panic effect" almost always does not last long.

Currency speculation

Large participants in the foreign exchange market from time to time can deliberately "rock" the rate in order to "skim the cream" from the transaction and earn speculative profits. The Central Bank may limit the actions of speculators by imposing sanctions. But "currency swings" are used much more often than the regulator would like.

Speculative jumps in rates are quite sharp, but they are always short-lived.

Force Majeure

What do financiers refer to as force majeure? Mass protests, strikes, revolutions, hostilities, terrorist attacks, natural disasters in the territory of a particular country.

September 11, 2001 is usually cited as an illustration of the impact of force majeure on the exchange rate. Immediately after the explosion of the twin towers in the United States, the dollar fell for a while around the world. In neighboring Ukraine, the hryvnia depreciated sharply after the "orange" revolution, and after the recent events on the Maidan.

What factors do you think influence the exchange rate? Russian ruble today?