What is it needed for? To display and study the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the phenomena and processes of social life in socio-economic statistics, a system of indicators is used. statistic is the most important category socio-economic statistics. This is a very capacious and widely used concept. It is saturated with specific content, in relation to various phenomena, their properties, forms. statistic- quantitative-qualitative concept. It is impossible to name a specific statistical indicator without mentioning its qualitative content. For example: indicators of the volume of GDP; real disposable money income; volume paid services; average life expectancy of the population; index consumer prices for goods and services. Since socio-economic statistics studies the phenomena of social life, in the specific conditions of place and time, then any statistical indicator in the form of a specific number contains in the light of spatial and temporal certainty. For example: the population of Kazakhstan as of January 1, 1999 was 15.6 million people.

Here the population is the qualitative certainty of the indicator: Kazakhstan is the spatial certainty. As of January 1, 1999 - temporary certainty, 15.6 million people. - quantitative certainty.

In this way, indicator in socio-economic statistics- this is a generalization of a quantitative characteristic of a qualitatively defined socio-economic phenomenon.

The statistic may be: to a separate phenomenon (object), for example, to a separate industrial enterprise; to a group of objects of the same type, for example, to a set of enterprises in a certain industry; to the totality of phenomena, for example, to the entire economy of a country.

According to this indicators are subdivided into individual, group (private) and general. The last two categories are called summary indicators.

Indicators related to a part of the country's territory are called regional (or territorial); indicators related to individual sectors of the economy - sectoral; and indicators related to the economy as a whole - aggregate for the country.

Statistical indicators are expressed in the form of absolute, relative and average values.

Scorecard has a hierarchical structure. At the top of this system is a block of the most common macro-economic indicators - SNA, consisting of subsystems, each of which is a more detailed description of certain aspects of the economic process. The SNA and its subsystems are connected with other blocks of economic statistics, which allows for a deeper analysis in a number of areas.

23. Subject, method and tasks of the ses. Organization of statistics in Russia.

Socio-economic statistics (SES)- an independent branch of knowledge and practice, studies the quantitative side of various mass economic phenomena and processes of social life, taking into account their qualitative side.

The subject of socio-economic statistics

examines the production, distribution and consumption of material goods and services, the patterns of their change, the economic and social conditions of people's lives.

Methods used in socio-economic statistics

provisions are widely used general theory statistics relating to the methods of calculating indices, summarizing indicators.

a systematic approach involves the development of a system of indicators for studying the economy, which covers the main types of economic activity

Tasks of socio-economic statistics:

providing information to government authorities for making appropriate decisions

informing all interested parties about the state of the state economy.

analysis of the state budget, study of its structure,

study of factors affecting the savings rate.

analysis of the activities of the money and stock markets and their impact on the formation of various macroeconomic indicators.

Monitoring the state of the environment, which should monitor the depletion of natural resources and provide the necessary information on the state of natural

The system of statistical information includes information about:

the structure and development of the country's economic resources;

population,

economic growth rates;

income distribution;

employment and unemployment and factors influencing them;

dynamics of the standard of living of the population,

investment process,

financial operations,

stock market;

state of the environment.

Organization of statistics in Russia

Statistical work in Russia is carried out by special state statistical bodies, which form a single system - the Statistical Committee performs a number of important functions: develops a unified statistical methodology for the CIS member countries; organizes staff training; conducts seminars and other events, organizes the collection, processing and presentation of scientifically based statistical information necessary for the implementation of state and economic management of the country's economic and social development. technical progress 24 ScorecardSocio-economic statisticsand

The following indicators are used in socio-economic statistics:

indicators of price dynamics;

volume and cost of manufactured products;

the size and composition of the population;

the standard of living of the population;

income and expenditure of the population;

labor, material and financial resources;

productivity and wages;

availability of fixed and working capital;

macroeconomic indicators.

subject of socio-economic statistics is the study of socio-economic indicators in the specific conditions of place and time, the analysis of their dynamics and the most important relationships.

Statistical indicator system is a set of interrelated statistical indicators that has a single-level and multi-level structure and is aimed at solving a specific statistical problem.

The system of indicators of economic statistics has the following features:

the living conditions of the population and society are changing - the statistical indicators of a certain economic system are also changing;

the set of methods for calculating statistical indicators is constantly being improved.

classification of types of statistical indicators:

1) By coverage of individual units of the population:

individual statistics characterizing a separate unit of the statistical population;

summary statistics, volumetric statistical indicators, and characterizing the total volume of the attribute;

calculated statistics designed to solve various analytical problems.

2) According to the time factor:

moment statistical indicators are set and fixed at a certain date;

interval statistical indicators that are established in a certain period of time.

3) According to the form of the wording:

absolute indicators characterizing the magnitude of economic phenomena and processes,

relative performance showing the balance between the quantitative characteristics of economic processes and phenomena

average statistic- this is a generalized quantitative characteristic of a property in a statistical population, in certain circumstances, as well as in specific conditions of place and time.

Chapter 21 Economic Development, Growth, and Structural Change

Level indicators economic development
3. Economic growth, its sources and measurement
Factors of economic growth
3. Theories of economic growth
Neoclassical direction
State regulation of economic growth
4. Cyclical fluctuations in economic growth. theories economic cycles
industrial economic cycle
Evolution of business cycles
4. Structural changes in economic development
Essence of economic structure
Industry structure
Structural crises
conclusions
Terms and concepts
Questions for self-examination

The nature and dynamics of the country's economic development are the subject of close attention of economists and politicians. Much in the life of the country and its prospects depends on what processes and structural changes are taking place in the national economy.

1. Economic development and its level

Essence of economic development

The economic development of society is a multifaceted process that includes economic growth, structural shifts in the economy, improving the conditions and quality of life of the population.
Various models of economic development are known (the model of Germany, the USA, China, the countries of Southeast Asia, Russia, Japan and other countries). But with all their diversity and national characteristics, there are common patterns and parameters that characterize this process.
According to the level of economic development, developed countries are distinguished (USA, Japan, Germany, Sweden, France, etc.); developing (Brazil, India, etc.), including the least developed (mainly the states of Tropical Africa), as well as countries with economies in transition (former Soviet republics, countries of Central and Eastern Europe, China, Vietnam, Mongolia), most of which occupy an intermediate position between developed and developing countries.
On the whole, the economic development of society is a contradictory and difficult-to-measure process that cannot proceed in a straight line, in an ascending line. Development itself is characterized by unevenness, including periods of growth and decline, quantitative and qualitative changes in the economy, positive and negative trends. This became evident in the 1990s. in Russia, when progressive reforms to transform the economic system were accompanied by a reduction in production and a sharp differentiation in the incomes of the population. Probably, economic development should be considered for medium and long-term periods, as well as within a single country or the world community as a whole.
The uneven economic development of individual countries and regions of the world was especially evident in the second half of the 20th century, when Asia became the most dynamically developing region. Thus, countries such as Japan, and then China and the newly industrialized countries of Southeast Asia, achieved great success in economic development. Largely due to them, the GDP growth rates in developing countries during this period (from 1950 to the present) almost doubled the corresponding indicator of developed countries, as a result of which the share of the latter in the world economy decreased from 63 to 52.7%, and the share of developing countries countries increased from 21.7 to 31.4%.
Great changes have taken place in the economic development of countries with economies in transition.
The heaviest economic situation developed in the states of Tropical Africa. Here, GDP growth rates were the lowest among all countries with market economies, their specific gravity in the world economy by the end of the twentieth century. decreased from 2.3 to 1.8%.

Indicators of the level of economic development

The variety of historical and geographical conditions for the existence and development of various countries, the combination of material and financial resources that they have, do not allow us to assess the level of their economic development with any one indicator. To do this, there is a whole system of indicators, among which the following stand out, first of all:
. total real GDP;
. GDP/GNP per capita;
. sectoral structure of the economy;
. production of main products per capita;
. the level and quality of life of the population;
. indicators of economic efficiency.
If the volume of real GDP characterizes mainly the economic potential of the country, then the production of GDP / GNP per capita is the leading indicator of the level of economic development.
For example, GDP per capita, if calculated at parity purchasing power(see Chap. 38) in Luxembourg is about $38,000, which is 84 times the GDP per capita in Ethiopia, the poorest country, and even higher than in the United States, although the economic potentials of the United States and Luxembourg are incomparable. In Russia in 1998, GDP per capita, according to the latest estimates, amounted to 6.7 thousand dollars. This is the level of a developing country of the upper echelon (Brazil, Mexico, Argentina) rather than a developed one. In some developing countries (for example, in Saudi Arabia), GDP per capita is quite high, but it does not correspond to the modern sectoral structure of the economy (low share of Agriculture and other branches of the primary sector; a high share of the secondary sector, primarily due to the manufacturing industry, especially mechanical engineering; the predominant share of the tertiary sector, primarily through education, health, science and culture). The sectoral structure of the Russian economy is more typical for a developed than for a developing country.
Indicators of the level and quality of life are numerous. This is primarily life expectancy, the incidence of various diseases, the level of medical care, the state of affairs with personal security, education, social security, and the state of the natural environment. Equally important are indicators of the purchasing power of the population, working conditions, employment and unemployment. An attempt to summarize some of the most important of these indicators is the human development index (indicator), which includes indices (indicators) of life expectancy, population coverage with education, standard of living (GDP per capita at purchasing power parity). In 1995, this index in Russia was 10.767, which is close to the world average. AT developed countries it approaches 1, and in the least developed it was close to 0.2.
Economic efficiency is characterized primarily by labor productivity, profitability of production, capital productivity, capital intensity and material intensity per unit of GDP. In Russia, these figures in the 90s. worsened.
It should be emphasized that the level of economic development of the country is a historical concept. Each stage of development of the national economy and the world community as a whole introduces certain changes in the composition of its main indicators.

Economic growth and its measurement

Due to the difficulties in measuring the process of economic development in macroeconomics, economic growth is most often analyzed, although this is only one of the criteria for economic development.
Economic growth is a component of economic development. It is expressed directly in the quantitative increase in GDP and its components.
At the macroeconomic level, the leading indicators of the quantitative dynamics of economic growth are:
. annual increase in GDP;
. annual growth rates of GDP per capita;
. annual growth rates of production of the main sectors of the economy.
Economic statistics use growth rates, growth rates, and growth rates to study the dynamics of economic growth. The growth factor x is calculated by the formula:
y1 , (21.1)
X = y0

Where y1 and y0 are indicators, respectively, in the study and base periods.
The growth rate is equal to the growth factor multiplied by 100. The growth rate is equal to the growth rate minus 100. However, in practice, the growth rate is often understood as the growth rate.
Economic growth can be measured both in physical terms (physical growth) and in terms of value (growth in value). The first method is more reliable (since it eliminates the impact of inflation), but is not universal (when calculating economic growth rates, it is difficult to derive a general indicator for the production of different products). The second method is used more often, but it is not always possible to completely clear it of inflation. True, the statistics of a number of countries measure macroeconomic growth based on the growth in production of the most important goods for the economy, while using their shares in total production.
In the USSR, for many decades, economic growth was measured by the produced ND, and only since 1987 did they begin to use the GNP indicator. In the 90s. In Russia, GDP has become the main indicator of the dynamics of the national economy.
For a long period, many data on the development of the economy distorted its real state. Thus, cost data on the dynamics of general economic indicators did not take into account the hidden price increase that occurs under the guise of improving product quality. Numerous postscripts based on the results of the activities of individual enterprises and organizations, especially in construction, transport, and agriculture, also did not allow one to have an objective idea of ​​the economic growth rates. It is no coincidence that the traditional calculations of the main general economic indicators that were previously made in the USSR are now being questioned.

Factors of economic growth

Economic growth occurs as a result of extensive and intensive use of production factors.
In modern conditions, the leading factor in economic growth is knowledge, especially technological (scientific and technological progress). This was first expressed with all certainty in the 50s. American economist and later Nobel laureate Robert Solow. Similar assessments were made by other American economists - John Kendrick, Edward Denison. In particular, E. Denison developed a classification of economic growth factors, including 23 factors, of which 4 relate to labor, 4 to capital, one is land, and the remaining 14 characterize the contribution of scientific and technological progress. In his opinion, economic growth in modern conditions is determined not so much by the number of factors of production spent, but by an increase in their quality, and above all the quality of the labor force. After analyzing the sources of economic growth in the United States for 1929-1982, E. Denison came to the conclusion that education is the determining factor in the growth in output per worker.
Many authors also put this indicator in first place. Technological progress is considered as the implementation in the process of R&D of the accumulated knowledge, skills, techniques, technical information and other innovations.
Economic growth is greatly influenced by economic policy state, stimulating it or actually hindering it. Of no small importance are external aspects, including participation in the international division of labor and economic integration, the degree of openness of the economy to the world economy.
Russia continues to act on the world market as a supplier of raw materials and an importer of finished products. The lack of an influx of capital, technology, managerial experience slows down its economic development. Meanwhile, foreign investment could become a catalyst for economic progress for Russia.

3. Theories of economic growth

Modern theories of economic growth were formed on the basis of two sources: the neoclassical theory, which has its roots in the theoretical views of J.B. Say and received a complete expression in the works of the American economist J.B. Clark (1847-1938), and the Keynesian theory of macroeconomic equilibrium.

Neoclassical direction

At the center of the neoclassical direction is the idea of ​​the optimality of the market system, considered as a perfect self-regulating mechanism that allows the best use of all production factors not only for an individual economic entity, but also for the economy as a whole.
In the real economic life of society, this balance is disturbed. However, equilibrium modeling makes it possible to find the deviation of real processes from the ideal. The best known are the Cobb-Douglas factor model and R. Solow's simple one-sector model of economic dynamics.
The factor model of Cobb-Douglas (see 2.2) shows the interaction and interchangeability of labor and capital, how much the product owes its creation to one or another factor, under what combination of them the maximum production can be achieved at the lowest cost.
The same amount of growth in the national product can be obtained as a result of either an increase in capital investment or an increase in the use of labor. Therefore, on the basis of production functions, the choice is made of the technological combination of these factors of production required under given specific conditions.
In the subsequent numerous studies of economists (E. Denison, R. Solow), the Cobb-Douglas model was modified and developed by introducing other growth factors: the age of fixed capital, the scale of production, the qualifications of workers, the length of the working week, etc.

Neoclassical Solow Models

R. Solow made a significant contribution to the development of the theory of economic growth. He developed two models: a model of factor analysis of sources of economic growth and a model that reveals the relationship between savings, capital accumulation and economic growth. The basis of the first model was the Cobb-Douglas production function. It was modified by introducing another factor - the level of technology development: .

Q = F (K, L, T) (21.2)

where Q is the output; K - fixed capital; L is the labor input (in the form wages); T is the level of technology development.

Solow suggested that the change in technology leads to the same increase in the marginal product K and L, i.e.

Q = TF (K ,L), (21.3)

where F (K, L) is the usual neoclassical Cobb-Douglas production function.

The increase in output can be represented as follows:
s Q= sTF (K, L) + s K. TFK + s L .TFL (21.4)

This means that the increase in output depends proportionally on the increase in technology (sT), the increase in fixed capital (sK) and the increase in labor input (sL). The share of capital change in output is equal to s K times the marginal product of capital (TFK), and the share of labor in output is equal to s L times the marginal product of labor (TFL)
The growth rate of output can be represented by the equation:

s Q = s T + SL + s L + Sk + sK
Q T L K

As can be seen, the output growth rate s Q depends on:
Q

Rate of technological progress s T
T

The growth rate of the volume of invested labor s L , multiplied by the share
L

wages (labor) in the total output SL (the share of wages in the product is defined as the ratio of nominal wages to the price of output);
. capital growth rate — s K , multiplied by the capital share in the SK issue
K

If the shares of labor and capital in output are measured on the basis of labor productivity, capital-labor ratio per worker and return on assets, then the contribution of technical progress is presented as the remainder after subtracting the share received from the increase in labor and capital from the increase in output, i.e. — s T
T
is the so-called Solow residual, which expresses the proportion of economic growth due to technological progress, or "progress in knowledge."
Another Solow model shows the relationship between savings, capital accumulation and economic growth.
If we denote the production of products per one employed q, the amount of capital per one worker - k (capital or capital-labor ratio), then the production function will take the form:
q = TF(k).

Rice. 21.1. Production function per capita

As can be seen from fig. 21.1, as the capital-labor ratio grows, q grows, but it increases to a lesser extent, since the marginal productivity of capital (capital productivity) falls.
In the Solow model, output (Q) is determined by investment (I) and consumption (C). It is assumed that the economy is closed from the world market, and domestic investment (I) is equal to national savings, or the volume of gross capital formation (S), i.e. I = S.
As already shown, the dynamics of output in this case depends on the capital-labor ratio, which changes under the influence of the disposal of fixed capital or investments. In turn, investments depend on the rate of gross capital formation, which is a relative value and is calculated as the ratio of gross capital formation to the created product: S(I) . 100 ;
Q

it defines the division of the product into investment, savings and consumption.
The rate of accumulation directly affects the level of capital-labor ratio. With the growth of the rate of accumulation (savings), investments increase, exceeding retirement. Wherein production assets increase. Thus, in the short run, the acceleration of economic growth depends on the rate of accumulation. In the future, developing his model, Solow introduces new factors that affect, along with investment and disposal, the capital-labor ratio: population growth (labor force) and technical progress.
It is assumed that technological changes are labor-saving, i.e. contribute to the improvement of qualifications, the development of professional skills, the educational level of employees.

Keynesianism

The central problem of macroeconomics for Keynesian theory is the factors that determine the level and dynamics of national income and its distribution. These factors are considered from the point of view of implementation in the conditions of formation of effective demand. Keynes concentrated his efforts on the study of the components of demand, i.e. consumption and accumulation, as well as the factors on which the movement of these components and demand as a whole depends.
It was with the movement of consumption and accumulation that Keynes linked the volume and dynamics of national income.
The greater the investment, the smaller the amount of consumption today and the more significant the conditions and prerequisites for its increase in the future. The search for a reasonable balance between accumulation and consumption is one of the permanent contradictions of economic growth and, at the same time, a condition for improving production and multiplying the national product.
In ch. 4 has already made a distinction between investing and saving. The growth of savings in the economic sense means the switching of funds from the purchase of consumer goods to investment goods. Equality of savings and investment is one of the sine qua non conditions for sustainable economic growth. If savings exceed investment, then excess stocks are formed, equipment is not fully used, and unemployment increases. If the investment demand outstrips the amount of savings, then this leads to an "overheating" of the economy, spurring investment price growth.
In the dynamics of economic growth, the relationship between savings and investment takes on a slightly more complex form. After all, savings set aside today will be transformed into investments that will be made tomorrow. This means that today's savings must match tomorrow's investments. And in this case, their coincidence, coordination becomes more complex, to a certain extent problematic. It turns out that in the long run we are talking about actual savings and expected investments. Keynesian theory pays special attention to this problem.
All models of the Keynesian direction are characterized by a common relationship between savings and investment, which can be expressed as follows:

TPR \u003d s ND \u003d FN / ND.NND (21.6)
ND FN/s ND s KND

where TsPR is the growth rate of national income; s ND and ND are, respectively, the growth and the total value of the national income; FN - accumulation fund; NND is the rate of accumulation in the national income; s K ND is the increase in the capital intensity of the national income.

If we denote s ND = EC.V (efficiency capital investments), then you can
FN
write down:
TPR \u003d NH \u003d NH iEK, V (21.7)
1/EC.V

those. the rate of growth of national income depends on the rate of accumulation and the efficiency of investment.

Neo-Keynesianism

In the post-war period, the neo-Keynesian models of economic growth, put forward by the English economist R. Harrod and the American economists E. Domar and E. Hansen, received the greatest fame in the economic literature of the West.
Economic theory Harrod, supplemented by Domar, analyzes not the moment of imbalance in the economy and its restoration (static Keynesian equilibrium), but a long period of stable economic growth (dynamic equilibrium), theoretically substantiating sustainable growth rates market economy.
Harrod calls the steady rate of production growth, which is provided by all population growth (this is one factor of economic growth) and all the opportunities for increasing labor productivity (this is the second factor of growth), the natural growth rate. Harrod considers the size of accumulated capital to be the third growth factor.

"See: Classics of Keynesianism. In 2 vols. M., 1997. Vol. 1.

Harrod's notation is specific. With a steady growth rate of GH production, the capital investment requirements will be expressed by GniGr, where Gr is the “required capital ratio”, which is the increase in fixed and working capital necessary to provide a unit of production increase; it can fluctuate during the cycle due mainly to the size of working capital. From the point of view of the long term, Gr is a constant value at a constant rate of interest, for technical progress, according to Harrod, under these conditions is neutral in nature, labor-saving inventions are allegedly balanced by capital-saving inventions. As regards the movement of the rate of interest and its effect on Cr, its prolonged decrease causes an increase in Cr, and its increase entails a reduction in Cr.
Harrod's equation, which expresses the equilibrium conditions at a natural growth rate, has the form:
GniCr = or = S

It means that in order to ensure a sustainable rate of production growth with full time the invested share of income Gni Cr should be equal to its saved share S. In essence, this is a modification of the Keynes equation: I = S, where I is the amount of investment. The difference is that, according to Keynes, the size of investment I is determined by the marginal efficiency of capital (rate of profit) and the rate of interest, while Harrod relates these sizes to population growth, technological progress, and the "required ratio of capital." The size of savings S in both cases is determined by a psychological factor - people's propensity to save, Harrod emphasizes. the kind that would take place if there were no chronic unemployment, underutilization of capacities and economic crises.
Proving that the gap between the actual growth rate G and the natural growth rate Gn can be closed, Harrod introduces new category— "guaranteed" growth rate Gw. Guaranteed, according to Harrod, is a pace that satisfies entrepreneurs who are ready to support it in the future. According to Harrod's equation

GiCr =S = GwiCr (21.8)

those. for sustainable growth, the actual need for capital must be equal to its need at a guaranteed growth rate. Harrod recognizes the inability of the market economy to self-regulate and justifies the need state regulation economy.
The growth model developed by Harrod was supposed to provide a dynamic balance of the main national economic values. The rate of economic growth in this model ultimately depends on the share of accumulation in national income and the capital intensity of production. The abstract nature of the model should be noted, since it reflects only the most common dependencies the process of social production: between accumulation, consumption and the growth rate of national income under given and unchanged technical and economic conditions. In fact, an extensive type of growth is considered.
Questions of the cyclical development of a market economy from booms to busts were developed in the dynamic theory of the cycle, the most prominent representative of which is the American economist E. Hansen. Hansen's main recommendation is to expand demand through state budget, which inevitably unleashes inflation and ultimately nullifies attempts to overcome the contradiction between production and consumption, since financing would be carried out at the expense of public debt.
The economic crisis of 1973-1975 contributed to the formation of a new trend - post-Keynesianism, the recognized leader of which is the representative of the English Cambridge school J. Robinson. The originality of post-Keynesianism as an independent trend was most clearly manifested in the development of the theory of economic growth and product distribution, which is based on the idea that the growth rate of the social product depends on the distribution of national income, which, in turn, is a function of capital accumulation. It is the rate of capital accumulation that determines the rate of profit, and hence the share of profit in the national income. The share of wages is defined as a residual value. The real significance of post-Keynesian theory is that it attempts to link the proportions of distribution with the proportions of reproduction.
Structural crisis and accompanying prolonged depression that engulfed world economy since the mid-1970s, have caused an intensification of research on macroeconomic dynamics. The forgotten idea of ​​J. Schumpeter about the uneven nature of economic growth and innovations as a factor of this unevenness turned out to be in the center of attention. According to this theory, innovation disrupts economic equilibrium, which is then restored under the influence of economic competition. Neoclassical theory could not explain the periodic fluctuations in economic activity. A theory of long-term technical and economic development is being developed. In Russia, it was reflected in the works of S.Yu. Glazyev, who focuses his attention on the macrotechnological dynamics, content, mechanism and geography of the change in technological patterns.
At present, the concept of "economic development without growth" has become widespread in Western countries. This is due, on the one hand, to the fact that, on the basis of the scientific and technological revolution, a high level of per capita production has already been achieved, and, on the other hand, the population growth rate has significantly decreased. In addition, supporters of this concept believe that economic growth leads to a violation of the biosphere of human life and is limited due to the lack of raw materials and fuel resources of the planet.

State regulation of economic growth

The state strategy for stimulating economic growth in developed countries at different stages had its own specifics and adopted various concepts, skillfully combining the recipes of neoclassical, Keynesian and neo-Keynesian trends.
Established in the United States after the "Great Depression" of 1929-1933. the system of state regulation was focused primarily on the management of demand factors or aggregate demand, mainly monetary instruments. Thus, the stimulation of the expansion of capital investments took place on the basis of low interest rates, limitation - by increasing them.
In the 80s. In the United States, a new economic policy was proclaimed, the essence of which was the transition from an economy of stimulating aggregate demand to a supply-side economy based on stimulating investment in machinery and equipment, advanced technologies.
Proponents of supply-side economics have focused on factors that increase the productive potential of an economic system. There are three directions of state influence on economic growth:
. stimulation of scientific and technical progress and development of scientific research;
. increase in spending on education, training and retraining of qualified personnel on a national scale;
. deep restructuring of the tax system.
The main goal of this policy was high growth rates of production, solution social problems A: employment, unemployment, poverty, rising income levels.
In the 90s. there is a significant increase public spending on social security, health care, education, which is largely due to the growing role of " human capital”, creative, innovative human activity as the most important factor in economic growth and the accumulation of national wealth. This is typical not only for developed countries, but also for developing countries.
Other direction public policy stimulating economic growth — maintaining competitiveness and an optimal structure of production through legislative regulation of tax and other preferences, direct or indirect subsidizing of certain industries and regions from the state budget. This is especially true for transport and communication infrastructure. Great importance is still attached to state support for fundamental and applied research and design development.

4. Cyclical fluctuations in economic growth. Theories of business cycles

The condition for sustainability and stable economic development is balance, a balance between social production and consumption, aggregate demand and aggregate supply. However, in a market economy, the state of equilibrium is periodically disturbed. There is a certain cyclicality, recurrence in the functioning of the national economy, when periods of economic recovery are replaced by periods of recession and stagnation. Cyclicity can be defined as the movement of the national economy from one macroeconomic equilibrium to another.
The economic cycle includes a number of phases of economic activity successively replacing each other, expressing the uneven development of national economies and the economic process as a whole. Ultimately, economic growth manifests itself through cyclicity, because the movement does not occur in a circle, but in a spiral, reflecting both long-term and medium-term fluctuations in the situation.
Economic theory distinguishes a number of cycles of economic development (growth): long-wave cycles that express long-term fluctuations in economic activity with a period of about 50 years and are called "Kondratiev cycles" (after the Russian economist); normal, or so-called large, industrial cycles with a period of 8 to 12 years and small cycles, or "Kitchin cycles" (after the American economist who discovered them), lasting 3-4 years. This is the period that is necessary for the mass renewal of fixed assets.

industrial economic cycle

In the classical version, the industrial economic cycle consists of four phases: the crisis of overproduction, depression, recovery and recovery. The final and initial phase in the development of the cycle is overproduction, which expresses a strong imbalance in the reproduction process, the overaccumulation of capital in all its forms (monetary, productive, commodity) in comparison with the capacity of the market.
This overaccumulation of capital manifests itself primarily in the sphere of circulation, as evidenced by the accumulation of commodity stocks, the slowdown in the turnover of capital, and the disruption of acts of purchase and sale. As a result - a drop in growth rates, a reduction in output, a decrease in wages, a decrease in prices.
During an economic crisis, as a rule, credit relations are disrupted and the crisis covers the financial market.
In the phase of depression, the decline in production stops, the fall in prices stops. The unemployment rate is still high. The decrease in the rate of loan interest stimulates the demand for loan capital. This creates the prerequisites for a certain accumulation of capital and contributes to the revival of production. Then comes a new phase in the movement of the cycle - revival. Unemployment is declining, consumer demand is growing, there is an increase in prices, the rate of profit, the demand for capital increases, and, consequently, the interest rate increases. The revival gradually embraces new industries in a spiral. The lifting phase begins.
Modern Western economists, in contrast to the traditional approach, consider the structure of the economic cycle in a slightly different way, highlighting the following phases: boom and boom (peak), contraction and recession, where the boom is the peak of the rise in production, and the recession is the lowest point of its decline (Fig. 21.2).

Rice. 21.2. Business Cycle Model

The phase of an economic downturn between the highest and lowest points of the cycle is called a recession. If the recession is extremely deep, as in the period from 1929 to 1933, this phase is called a depression."

"See: SaksJ.D., Larren F.B. Macroeconomics. Global approach / Translated from English. M., 1996.

Evolution of business cycles

Industrial cycles clearly manifested themselves already at the beginning of the 19th century. In 1825, in England, which at that time was the economic leader, the first economic crisis. In the future, economic crises recurred periodically in 8-12 years, gradually assuming a global character.
The economic cycles of the era of free competition and the modern regulated market economy differ significantly from each other both in duration as a whole and in manifestations of imbalance, the depth and scale of the decline in production and standard of living population.
Crises of the 19th century characterized by significant synchrony, almost simultaneously covering all industrialized countries. Their duration was for the most part from one to two years, the depth of the decline in production was from 5 to 10%.
In the first half of the XX century. The world crisis of 1929-1933 was the longest and deepest. The decline in production reached more than 40% in some countries. Since that time, there has been a chronic surplus of fixed capital, constant underutilization of production capacities and chronic unemployment.
The Second World War and the post-war restoration of production disrupted the synchronism of the cycles. In the USA, the post-war crisis was observed in 1948-1949, in England and France - in 1951-1952, in Japan - in 1953-1954. and in Germany - in 1957-1958.
The post-war economic cycles were greatly influenced by the scientific and technological revolution and state regulation of the economy in order to smooth out cyclical fluctuations and the severity of crises. The nature of cyclic development undergoes certain changes. The depth and duration of crises, the main phases and parameters of the cycle are changing.
Crises of overproduction are accompanied by intermediate recessions that disrupt the overall picture and the mechanism of the cycle. The deepest decline in production was observed during the crises of 1957-1958, 1966-1967, 1973-1975. and 1979-1981
Crisis of 1973-1975 restored the synchronism of the next cycle, but already in 1990-1991. asynchrony reappeared. While the United States saw a decline in production, Japan continued its growth, and France stagnated. In the future, the United States enters a record economic recovery in terms of duration (Table 21.1), there is a gradual improvement in the conjuncture in Europe and serious financial difficulties in Japan. All this indicates that each economic cycle has its own specifics and unfolds under the influence of many factors. In the 90s. in developed countries, there are undulating fluctuations in the production process without a deep decline in production, the severity of crisis manifestations has decreased, and factors that counteract the decline in production have intensified.

Table 21.1. GDP growth rates and industrial production in the USA, %

Indicators
industrial production

Causes of average cyclic fluctuations

The cyclicity in the development of a market economy is explained primarily by the action internal factors inherent in the system itself. The mechanism of the "invisible hand" of the market based on economic laws(laws of supply and demand, competition, capitalist accumulation) spontaneously regulates macroeconomic balance. At the same time, the desire of economic agents to maximize profits, expand the scale of production, and increase investment as an incentive for economic development leads to a state where the aggregate supply goes beyond market demand. Most theoretical economists believe that crises of overproduction are due to a serious violation of the relationship between aggregate demand and aggregate supply. At the same time, through the economic crisis and the measures taken to overcome it, the balance is being restored. There is a massive renewal of fixed capital, the sectoral structure of the economic system is being improved. E. Hansen connects the causes of economic downturns and upswings with the influence of the capital investment cycle.
In studies of the causes of economic cycles, an approach is now widely used, according to which cycles are the result of random effects on the economic system, the so-called impulses, or shocks that upset the economic equilibrium and cause response fluctuations.
These ideas were first expressed by the Soviet economist Yevgeny Slutsky in 1927. A similar study was carried out by the Norwegian scientist Ragnar Frisch and was reflected in his work “Problems of the propagation of impulses in the economy”, published in London in 1933. There are several types of impulses:
. shocks and offers affecting production. These include technological shifts, climate change, the discovery of new sources of raw materials, fluctuations in world prices for raw materials, etc.;
. S h o c o c s R e s o n d e d e s s i n g o n e s t and at the macro level and affecting mainly demand. These are fiscal and monetary policy, exchange rate fluctuations, loan interest rates;
. shocks in the private sector, such as changes in investment and consumer spending in this sector of the economy.
These shocks occur within the country and affect the development of the economy through international trade and financial ties.
Keynes considered the main source of impulses that cause economic fluctuations to be investment spending, which, due to a certain "entrepreneurial sense" for risk, is characterized by instability. As a result, there are shifts in aggregate demand, and hence in aggregate supply.
In the theory of investment, Western economists widely use the multiplier-accelerator model, which explains the dynamics of investment by the action of the accelerator mechanism, i.e. Investments are not affected by the volume of output itself, but by its fluctuations.
Nobel Prize winner English economist J. Hicks believes that the main reason for fluctuations should be sought in the impact that changes in output (or income) have on investment, which, in fact, is the acceleration effect. In his opinion, a commercial and industrial boom is nothing but a period of intensive accumulation of capital, and a recession is simply a suspension of accumulation.1

1 See: Hicks J.R. Cost and capital / Per. from English. M., 1993. P.433,436.

Big conjuncture cycles

According to the concept of "great cycles of conjuncture" developed by the Russian scientist N.D. Kondratiev (1892-1938), the development of the economy, along with medium and short cycles, is characterized by long-term long-wave fluctuations covering a period from 45 to 60 years. To this conclusion, N.D. Kondratiev came on the basis of an analysis of statistical data (dynamics of prices, wages, foreign trade turnover, coal mining, gold, iron, steel production, etc.) of the economic development of England, the USA, France for 100-150 years. He noted that the cycles of the dynamics of these indicators coincide quite closely in time and are interrelated to a certain extent. Thus, the dynamics of prices reflects the processes of reimbursement of fixed capital, the cyclical nature of investments.
As a result of N.D. Kondratiev singled out the following large cycles of conjuncture:

Climb
1789-1814 1849-1873 1896-1920	1814-1849 1873-1896

Kondratiev considered large cycles as a violation and restoration of economic equilibrium for a long period and believed that "the main reason lies in the mechanism of accumulation, accumulation and dispersion of capital sufficient to create new basic productive forces."

"Kondratiev N.D. Problems of economic dynamics. M., 1989. S. 226.

He identified a number of patterns in the development of large cycles:
. before and at the beginning of the upward wave of each large cycle, profound changes are observed in technology (which is preceded, in turn, by significant technical discoveries and inventions), in the involvement of new countries in world economic relations, in changes in gold mining and monetary circulation;
. during the periods of the upward wave of each major cycle, there are the largest number social upheavals (wars and revolutions);
. periods of an upward wave of each major cycle are accompanied by a prolonged and especially pronounced depression in agriculture;
. during the period of an upward wave of large cycles, average capitalist cycles are characterized by the shortness of depressions and the intensity of upswings;
. during the period of the downward wave of large cycles, the reverse picture is observed. 2

"Kondratiev N.D. Problems of economic dynamics. M., 1989. S. 225.
2 Ibid. S. 225

Kondratiev's conclusions were also confirmed in the further development of the economic situation. Prolonged and deep crisis of 1929-1933. unfolded during the period of a downward wave of a large cycle that began at the end of the 19th century. About fifty years later, in 1973-1975. again, against the backdrop of a downward wave, there was the deepest and most destructive decline in production in recent decades.
Economic growth in the 80-90s. in developed countries took place in the context of the unfolding fifth technological order (the current stage of the scientific and technological revolution), which determined the beginning of a new upward wave of a large cycle.
After N.D. Kondratiev, such well-known scientists as J. Schumpeter, S. Kuznets, K. Clark, W. Mitchell and others were engaged in the study of the long-wave cycle. Among modern Russian economists, it should be noted Yu. Yakovets, L. Klimenko, S. Menshikov, S. Glazyev. It was confirmed that the transitions from one phase of a large cycle to another are associated with technological upheavals and structural transformations in the economy. However, the theory of long waves is not universal. It has been critically reviewed on numerous occasions. As you know, life introduces numerous amendments to various concepts of social development. At the same time, the theory of long-wave cycles helps to study and predict the general patterns of socio-economic development.

Structural changes in economic development

Essence of economic structure

National economy is a complex system consisting of many macroeconomic elements that are closely related to each other. The relationship between these elements is economic structure.
The economic structure is of great importance for the balance of the national economy, its effective and sustainable growth. Thus, the success in economic growth of most Western countries is largely due to deep structural changes that ensured the overall dynamism of production and other positive qualitative changes. The rapid growth of production in a number of newly industrialized countries of Southeast Asia occurred primarily due to the acceleration of the development of non-traditional industries for these countries, i.e. as a result of a sharp change in the structure of the economy.
The theory of structure occupies a rather honorable place in economics. Much attention was paid to these problems, in particular, by the Nobel Prize winners L. Kantorovich, S. Kuznets, V. Leontiev and others.
The structure of the economy is a multifaceted concept; it can be viewed from different points of view, reflecting the ratio of various elements of the economic system. Usually allocate branch, reproduction, regional and foreign trade structures.

Industry structure

Industry structure represents the ratio of various sectors and sub-sectors in the system of the national economy. It is complex, dynamic and subject to quantitative and qualitative changes under the influence of scientific and technological progress, the cyclical development of the economy and a number of other factors. a sectoral structure is formed on the basis of the social division of labor.
The division of the national economy into the main sectors of the economy (agriculture and forestry, industry and construction, transport, trade and other service sectors) expresses the general division of labor. In turn, the private division of labor implies the presence in each of these areas of a number of industries. Thus, in industry there are mining and manufacturing industries, in the manufacturing industries - light and food industries, machine building. In mechanical engineering, machine tool building, instrument making, etc. stand out. Finally, in many industries there are sub-sectors that reflect the intra-industry division of labor.
In the process of social reproduction, close relationships are formed between industries, the study of which is necessary to predict the development of the economy. The analysis of these relationships was carried out in the intersectoral balance model developed in the 1930s. American scientist of Russian origin Wassily Leontiev (1906-1999), who received the title of Nobel Prize in Economics for this. This model is called “input-output”, since it considers the quantitative relationship between the input of resources and the output of each industry and shows the movement of goods and services from one sector of the national economy to all others.
Throughout the twentieth century. the sectoral structure of the economy has repeatedly changed. At the beginning of the century, the creation of the social product of the Western countries was dominated by nature exploiting industries (primary processing of natural raw materials), agriculture; mechanical engineering began to develop. By the middle of the century, there is a rapid reduction in the production of GDP in the share of primary industries and agriculture, and the share of the service sector is growing sharply.
Transition to post-industrial society at the end of the twentieth century. accompanied by fundamental changes in the industrial structure of developed countries, which is expressed in the following:
. in the creation of GDP, a steady decline in the share of agriculture and forestry, extractive industries, and heavy industry continues;
. at the same time, there is an outstripping growth in science-intensive branches of material production, such as electronic engineering, rocket and space technology, control and measuring and analytical instruments, etc.;
. the share of the service sector is growing, primarily in its sectors such as health care, science, education, social security, etc. Structural changes in the economy have caused similar trends in the structure of employment.

Reproductive structure

This is a cut of the economic system, which reflects the possibilities of economic growth and its efficiency. The most important is the relationship between consumption and accumulation, since it is the main, determining condition for expanded reproduction. In principle, the higher the share of gross capital formation, the higher the growth rate of the economy. The former Soviet Union was characterized by a gross capital formation rate of approximately 30-40% of GDP. Subsequently, this rate decreased and in 1990 in Russia it was at the level of 20.7%. Structural restructuring of the economy is carried out in conditions of limited investment resources.
By reducing investment, it is possible to temporarily expand consumption, especially if the efficiency of investment can be improved. However, in the future, curtailment of investment programs may adversely affect the overall dynamics of the national economy.
In developed countries, there are quite varied and unstable proportions between accumulation and consumption. Much depends on the cyclical conjuncture. Most often accumulation fluctuates within the limits of 15-20% of the national income. However, for example, in Japan in some years the rate of accumulation was more than 30%.

Structural crises

Abrupt changes in the structure can lead to profound and rather acute consequences, covering both national and international economic relations.
Unlike cyclical crises of overproduction, structural crises manifest themselves in changes not in the general economic situation, but in some individual sectors or sectors of the economy. Structural crises often affect many sectors of the economy and even many areas of the world economy.
Under certain conditions, structural crises can have a profound impact on economic development for quite some time. For example, the energy crisis, which began with a sharp rise in world oil prices in 1973, had a lasting impact on the economies of most countries of the world. Economic history also knows agrarian, currency, financial and other types of structural crises. Currency crises are expressed in sharp volatility exchange rates a number of countries. Agrarian crises are manifested in periodic difficulties in the sale of agricultural products in national or world markets.

Methods of influencing the economic structure

The economic structure does not remain once and for all given. It is subject to change, and the faster these changes occur, the more elastic the structure is adjusted to the requirements of the time, the more successfully the economy develops. Structural changes after the Second World War covered almost all countries, and although their paths were not the same, two main ones can be distinguished from them.
In one, elemental forces, generated purely market relations. The structure changes as a result of changes in the rate of profit. The owners of enterprises that have ceased to be promising are ruined or satisfied with a lower profitability. Capital, labor force, entrepreneurial energy rush to where it has become more profitable today.
Another way is the widespread use of state levers to accelerate progressive structural changes. Here, the necessary predictive estimates are usually used, which help to determine in advance which elements of the structure should be reduced, and which it is advisable to provide assistance.
The first path, with a certain degree of conventionality, can be called American. According to him in the 80s. Great Britain followed. Here, the element of the market served mainly as a support with passive state intervention. This path turned out to be long, with significant social costs, and was accompanied by a slow growth in production efficiency.
The second path is the Japanese one (on which South Korea has been following Japan for more than 40 years), based on centralized regulatory levers, state planning, and accelerated intersectoral transfer of resources. This path is faster, with lower social costs and significant productivity growth.

conclusions

1. The economic development of society is a multifaceted process covering all spheres of economic activity. Indicators of the dynamics of economic development are numerous, the main one being GDP per capita.
2. Due to the difficulties in measuring the process of economic development in macroeconomics, economic growth is most often analyzed, i.e. change in the volume of goods and services produced in the country, although this is only one of the criteria for economic development. Economic growth can be measured in physical and monetary terms.
3. The leading factor in economic growth at present is scientific and technological progress. With the development and mastering of the achievements of scientific and technical progress, intensive factors become predominant.
4. Modern theories of economic growth are developing within the framework of neoclassical, Keynesian, neo-Keynesian and post-Keynesian directions, which is reflected in state strategy economic development of society, methods and forms of state regulation of economic growth.
5. The economic development of society is uneven, includes periods of growth and decline, reflects positive and negative trends.
6. Economic theory distinguishes a number of cycles of economic development, including long-wave cycles covering a period of 45 to 60 years, and industrial economic cycles with a period of 8 to 12 years. Each of them has its own specifics.
7. The national economy is a complex system consisting of many macroeconomic elements that are closely related to each other. The ratio between these elements is the economic structure. Usually, social, sectoral, reproductive, regional and foreign trade structures are distinguished.
8. Sectoral structure characterizes the relationship between different industries and within industries.
9. The main parameter of the reproductive structure is the ratio between consumption and accumulation.
10. The economic structure is subject to change. There are two main ways to change it: spontaneous and state-regulated.

Terms and concepts

Economic development
The economic growth
Business cycle
Economic structure
Structural crises
Industry structure
Reproductive structure

Questions for self-examination

1. What is common and what are the differences between the content of the concepts of "economic development" and "economic growth"?
2. How is the level of economic development determined?
3. What is typical for the economic development of Russia in the 90s: a) GDP growth;
b) the evolution of forms of ownership; c) decline in production; d) structural shifts in the economy; e) the formation of market institutions?
4. What are the main differences between neoclassical and Keynesian concepts of economic growth?
5. What role does R. Solow assign to scientific and technological progress in the process of economic growth? What does the so-called Solow remainder express?
6, What is the specificity of state regulation of economic growth in modern conditions?
7. What underlies the development of the sectoral structure of the economy?
8. Why is the proportion between accumulation and consumption the main one in characterizing the reproductive structure of the economy?
9. What explains the cyclical development of a market economy?

10. What is the difference between long-wave cycles of economic development and industrial economic cycles?

Detailed solution Paragraph § 3 on social science for students in grade 11, authors L.N. Bogolyubov, N.I. Gorodetskaya, L.F. Ivanova 2014

Question 1. How does economic growth affect the development of society and man? How is economic growth different from economic development? Why does the economy develop in cycles?

Economic growth is an increase in the volume of production in the national economy over a certain period of time (usually a year).

The amount of fixed capital;

New technologies.

Economic growth is driven by investment in production. An important feature of investments should be noted: at the time of their implementation, they increase aggregate demand, and in subsequent periods - aggregate supply, as they increase the volume of production capacity.

For economic growth, scientific and technological progress is an important factor, as it allows the use of available resources more efficiently and contributes to an increase in labor productivity.

Economic development - expanded reproduction and gradual qualitative and structural positive changes in the economy, productive forces, education, science, culture, the level and quality of life of the population, human capital. Economic development includes the development of social relations, therefore it proceeds differently in the specific historical conditions of the technological structures of the economy and the distribution of material wealth. It is a quality improvement process for all human lives and opportunities to improve living standards, self-respect and freedom.

Economic cycles are fluctuations in economic activity (economic conditions), consisting in repeated contraction (economic recession, recession, depression) and expansion of the economy (economic recovery). The cycles are periodic, but usually irregular. Usually (within the framework of the neoclassical synthesis) they are interpreted as fluctuations around long-term trend economic development.

The theory of real economic cycles explains recessions and rises by the influence of real factors. In industrialized countries, this may be the emergence of new technologies, changes in prices for raw materials. In agricultural countries - harvest or crop failure. Also, force majeure situations (war, revolution, natural disasters) can become an impetus for change. Anticipating a change in the economic environment for the worse or better, households and firms massively start saving or spending more. As a result, aggregate demand decreases or increases, retail trade turnover decreases or increases. Firms receive fewer or more orders for the manufacture of products, respectively, the volume of production, employment changes. Business activity is changing: firms begin to reduce the range of products or, on the contrary, launch new projects, take loans for their implementation. That is, the entire economy fluctuates, trying to come to equilibrium.

Questions and tasks for the document

Question 1. What characterizes economic growth?

The factors of economic growth are:

Quantity and quality of natural resources;

Quantity and quality labor resources- labor productivity, education and training;

The amount of fixed capital;

New technologies.

These factors contribute to the physical growth of production, but it is also necessary that there be use, or consumption, of increased GDP. Therefore, growth also depends on demand factors (increase in the level of aggregate spending) and distributional factors (efficient use of scarce resources in various industries).

Economic growth is driven by investment in production.

Question 2: Does economic growth increase tax revenues? Due to what?

By itself, economic growth increases tax revenues and reduces the need for social spending such as unemployment benefits.

Question 3. How does economic growth reduce the need for social spending?

Due to the fact that new jobs are created, unemployment is reduced.

SELF-CHECK QUESTIONS

Question 1. What is meant by the economic growth of the country and how is it measured?

Economic growth is the quantitative side of the development of the economic system, characterized by the expansion of its (system) scale. Economic growth is defined as a long-term upward trend in real per capita output. At the same time, equilibrium balanced growth is emphasized, i.e. such economic growth, in which the rates of development of industries or sectors of the economy are internally coordinated.

The most common measure of economic growth is the rate of change in gross national product (GNP) or gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (adjusted for price changes). An increase in GNP due to higher prices in the current period, i.e., a change in nominal (in price terms) GNP, cannot be regarded as economic growth.

Economic growth is usually measured both in absolute terms and in relative terms (as a percentage or coefficient of the value of the previous period).

Absolute growth shows how much the level of the current period is higher or lower than the base one. It can have a positive or negative sign. For example, if in a given year real GNP amounted to 120 million rubles, and in the previous year it was 100 million, then the absolute increase as the difference between the subsequent and previous levels of the dynamics series will be 20 million rubles.

The growth rate is the ratio of the next level to the previous one or some other level taken as the basis for comparison. The growth rate is always positive.

At growth rates less than 100%, or one, negative growth rates are obtained. For our example, the growth rate is 120%, or 1.2 times, and the growth rate is 20%, or 0.2 times.

Question 2. Name the factors of extensive and intensive growth.

Distinguish between extensive and intensive types of economic growth. With extensive growth is achieved through a quantitative increase in the resource. The growth of the final product of society is accompanied by the same and even greater growth of the resources expended.

Extensive Path:

Increasing the number of employed workers

Increasing the volume of investments (investments) with the use of unchanged equipment and technologies

Increase in consumption of raw materials, materials, fuel, energy and other resources

Intensive way:

Use of the latest technologies and fundamentally new equipment

Increasing the level of education and qualifications of employees

Improving the efficiency of the use of labor, capital, all economic resources

Improving the organization of labor and production

Elimination of waste of resources (working time, etc.)

Extensive factors of growth include an increase in land, capital and labor inputs. These factors are not connected with innovations, with new production and management technologies, with the growth of the quality of human capital.

With an intensive type, growth is achieved through the development and mastering of modern achievements in science and technology, an increase in labor productivity, the return of fixed assets, and an improvement in the use of raw materials and materials (usually with a combination of all these factors). Intensive growth factors are becoming predominant.

In real life, extensive and intensive types of growth do not exist in their pure form. Their interweaving and interaction takes place. For example, there may be both an increase in the quantity of the labor force and an increase in its quality, or an expansion of the field of production and an improvement in the technical base of the production process. Depending on which method prevails, one speaks of a predominantly extensive or predominantly intensive type of economic growth.

Question 3. What is the difference between economic growth and economic development?

The concept of "economic growth" is close to the concept of "economic development", but is not identical to it. Growth is a component of economic development, which is understood as a process that includes periods of growth and decline, quantitative and qualitative changes in the economy. Growth is the positive dynamics of the economy. Recession is the negative dynamics of both the economy as a whole and its individual phases, spheres, sectors, factors and elements.

The economic development of society is a multifaceted process that includes economic growth, structural changes in the economy, improvement of conditions and improvement of the quality of life of the population.

Question 4. What is the system of indicators of the country's economic development?

Various models of economic development are known. But with all the diversity and national characteristics, there are common patterns and parameters that characterize this process.

The variety of historical and geographical conditions for the existence and development of various countries, the combination of material and financial resources that they have, do not allow us to assess the level of their economic development with any one indicator. To do this, there is a whole system of indicators, among which the following stand out primarily:

Total real GDP;

GDP/GNP per capita;

Sectoral structure of the economy;

Production of main products per capita;

Level and quality of life of the population;

Indicators of economic efficiency.

If the volume of real GDP (GNP) characterizes mainly the economic potential of the country, then the production of GDP (GNP) per capita is the leading indicator of the level of economic development.

The level of economic development of the country is a historical concept. Each stage of the development of the national economy and the world community in business introduces certain changes in the composition of its main indicators.

Within the framework of the UN Development Program, to characterize the level of human development, special calculations are carried out using the so-called Human Development Index (HDI).

HDI (10) is integral indicator, calculated as the average value of the following three generalized indicators:

index IX - life expectancy (longevity), defined as the life expectancy at birth;

index 12 - the achieved level of education, measured as the aggregate index of adult literacy and the aggregate share of students enrolled in educational institutions of the first, second and third levels;

index 13 - standard of living, defined as adjusted real GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP in dollars).

The HDI is the average of the sum of all indices divided by three. The main purpose of this indicator is to show the direction in which development is carried out in a particular country (region) and how countries (regions) differ in the accumulation and development of human potential.

Question 5. What characterized the crises of the XIX century?

The crises were characterized by a sharp drop in production, rising unemployment, bankruptcies of many enterprises, and a decline in the purchasing power of the population.

Question 6. How can the state influence the business cycle?

There are 2 methods of counter-cyclical regulation.

In the first case, budget policy plays a huge role, here they manipulate spending and taxes (if everything is bad, then taxes go down, and government spending increases, if everything is good, then vice versa).

In the second case, monetary policy is considered, that is, interest rates for a loan and the amount of money in the country's circulation change.

Methods of fiscal and monetary policy.

Fiscal policy is the government's policy of regulating, first of all, aggregate demand. The regulation of the economy in this case occurs through the impact on the amount of total costs.

Monetary regulation is a set of specific measures central bank, aimed at changing the amount of money in circulation, the volume of loans, the level of interest rates and other indicators of money circulation and the loan capital market.

TASKS

Question 1. In the table below you will find indices that characterize the standard of living of the population of the subjects Russian Federation(2008). Calculate the human development index of these subjects and compare with the indicators for Russia as a whole.

Russia - 0.825; Moscow - (0.797+0.999+0.991)/3=0.929; St. Petersburg - (0.758+0.999+0.875)/3=0.877; Tula region – (0.674+0.892+0.787)/3=0.784; Republic of Altai - (0.669+0.884+0.690)/3=0.747; Republic of Tuva - (0.591+0.888+0.671)/3=0.717

Question 2. Choose the correct judgment. Economic growth is measured as:

a) an increase in the real volume of national production over a certain period of time.

Question 3. Describe the factors and indicators of economic growth.

The factors of economic growth are:

Quantity and quality of natural resources;

Quantity and quality of labor resources - labor productivity, education and training;

The amount of fixed capital;

New technologies.

Distinguish between intensive and extensive factors of economic growth:

An extensive growth factor is realized through a quantitative increase in the resource (for example, through an increase in the number of employees). At the same time, the average labor productivity does not change significantly. Extensive growth factors are characterized by the law of decreasing returns with an excessive increase in the resource. For example, an unjustified increase in the size of the organization can lead to an excess of labor and a decrease in labor productivity. Extensive growth factors also include an increase in land, capital and labor costs. These factors are not connected with innovations, with new production and management technologies, with the growth of the quality of human capital.

Intensive factors of economic growth are determined by the improvement and improvement of the quality of management systems, technologies, the use of innovations, the modernization of production facilities and the improvement of the quality of human capital. The main intensive factor of growth and development modern economy both industrial and innovative is high-quality human capital.

A diverse combination of production factors and development conditions in different countries does not allow us to assess the level of economic development from any one point of view. To do this, use a number of key indicators.

Indicators of the level of economic development of the country:

1. GDP/GNP per capita.

This is the leading indicator in the analysis of the level of economic development. It is the basis of international classifications that divide countries into developed and developing countries. In some developing countries (for example, in Saudi Arabia), the per capita GDP indicator is at a high level, corresponding to developed industrial countries, however, according to the totality of other indicators (sectoral structure of the economy, production of basic types of products per capita, etc.), such countries cannot be classified as developed.

In the group of developed countries, this figure averages $25,000, for developing countries and countries with economies in transition it was $1,250 (including Russia - $4,000).

2. Sectoral structure of the national economy.

Its analysis is based on GDP indicator calculated by industry. First of all, the ratio between the large national economic sectors of material and non-material production is taken into account. In developed countries, the service sector dominates, accounting for more than 60% of GDP. In developing countries, the largest share is occupied by agriculture and the mining industry. AT transitional economies the share of the service sector is growing and the share of industry and agriculture is decreasing.

The study of the structure of individual industries is also important. Thus, a sectoral analysis of the manufacturing industry shows what proportion it is occupied by mechanical engineering and chemistry, i.e. industries providing scientific and technological progress. The diversification of leading industries is great. For example, the number of machine-building industries and industries in the industrialized countries of the world reaches 150-200 or more, and only 10-15 in countries with a relatively low level of economic development.

3. Production of main types of products per capita (the level of development of individual industries).

The indicators of production of some basic types of products, which are basic for the development of the national economy, are considered; they make it possible to judge the possibilities of meeting the needs of the country in these basic types of products.

Electricity production per capita.

The electric power industry underlies the development of all types of industries, and, therefore, this indicator hides the possibilities of technical progress, the achieved level of production, the quality of goods, the level of services, etc. The ratio of this indicator between developed countries and least developed countries is currently 500:1, and sometimes more.

Steel smelting and production of rolled products, machine tools, automobiles, mineral fertilizers, chemical fibers, paper and a number of other goods.

Steel production in Russia is 408 kg per capita (in the USA - 366 kg; in Japan - 839 kg; in Germany - 566 kg; in Poland - 272 kg), the production of chemical fibers - 1.1 kg (in the USA - 17, 1 kg; in Japan - 14.3 kg; in Germany - 13 kg; Poland - 2.5 kg), the production of cars per 1000 people is 7.1 units. (in the USA - 20.7 units; in Japan - 65.9 units; in Germany - 66.7 units; in Poland - 13.8 units). In terms of steel and iron smelting, Russia ranks 4th in the world, in the production of cars - 11th, paper and cardboard - 14th.

Production in the country per capita of the main types of food products: grain, milk, meat, sugar, potatoes, etc.

Comparison of this indicator, for example, with the rational norms for the consumption of these food products, developed by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization - FAO or national institutions, makes it possible to judge the degree of satisfaction of the population's needs for food of their own production, the quality of the diet, etc.

Grain production per capita in Russia is 590 kg (in the USA - 1254 kg; in Japan - 102 kg; in Germany - 559 kg; Poland - 586 kg), potatoes - 242 kg (in the USA - 163 kg; in Japan - 23 kg; in Germany - 161 kg; Poland - 627 kg), meat - 31 kg (in the USA - 113 kg; in Japan - 24 kg; in Germany - 74 kg; Poland - 77 kg). In terms of grain production, Russia ranks 5th in the world, meat - 8, potatoes - 2.

Production per capita of non-food products: fabrics, clothing, footwear, knitwear, etc.

The production of shoes per capita in our country is 0.3 pairs (in the USA - 0.4 pairs; in Japan - 0.3 pairs; in Germany - 0.4 pairs; in Poland - 1.3 pairs), production of woolen fabrics - 0.4 m 2, cotton - 14.5 m 2 (in the USA - 0.2 and 13.5 m 2; in Japan - 1.6 and 6.1 m 2; in Germany - 1.0 and 5, 8 m 2; in Poland - 0.8 and 5.1 m 2).

Production in the country per 1000 population or per average family of a number of durable goods: (refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, cars, video equipment, personal computers, etc.).

Russia is significantly inferior in these indicators to developed countries. For example, in terms of the number of televisions per 100 households (1.7 times behind the United States, and 1.2 times behind Germany). In Russia, there are 126 TVs per 100 families (in the USA - 240, Japan - 222, Germany - 140, Poland - 133), 113 refrigerators (in the USA - 124, Japan - 127, Germany - 130, Poland - 124), 27 cars cars (in the USA - 85, Japan - 130, Germany - 97, Poland - 33).

4. The level and quality of life of the population.

The standard of living of the population of the country is largely characterized by the following indicators:

Structure of GDP by use.

Particularly important is the analysis of the structure of private final consumption (personal consumer spending). A large share in the consumption of durable goods and services indicates a higher standard of living of the population and, consequently, a higher overall level of economic development of the country. An estimated 60% of Russians spend more than 50% of their income on food. For comparison, the population of Japan spends an average of 15.5% on food, Germany - 12.4%, Sweden - 11.8%, USA - 8.7%.

The state of the labor force: average life expectancy, the level of education of the population, per capita consumption of basic food products, the level of qualification of the labor force, the share of expenditures on education in GDP, etc.

The life expectancy of Russians reached its lowest value in 1994 - 64 years, in 1997 it increased to 66.9 years, in 2001 it decreased to 65 years. In third world countries this indicator is 62 years, in developed countries it is 75 years. The life expectancy of men in Russia is 12 years lower than the life expectancy of women. According to the UN, there is no such big difference in any of the developed countries (in Japan it is 6 years, in the USA and Spain - 7, in Great Britain, Sweden, Greece - only 5 years).

The adult literacy rate in Russia is 99.6% and is the highest in the world; 95% of the population has a secondary education. For comparison: this figure in Germany - the country with the highest level of education in the EU - 78%, in the UK - 76%, in Spain - 30%, in Portugal - less than 20%. The general indicator of the level of culture in the world community is considered to be the average number of years of education of the population. In North America and Western Europe, this figure exceeds 11-12 years, i.e. about 1/3 higher than in Russia.

Consumption of basic foodstuffs per capita is also one of the most important indicators characterizing the standard of living of the population. For example, the consumption of meat and meat products in Russia is 43 kg per year per capita (USA - 120 kg, Japan - 44 kg, Germany - 88 kg, Poland - 61 kg); fish and fish products - 11 kg (USA - 11 kg, Japan - 58 kg, Germany - 14 kg, Poland - 10 kg); fruits and berries - 37 kg (USA - 106 kg, Japan - 60 kg, Germany - 79 kg, Poland - 119 kg); potatoes - 122 kg (USA - 59 kg, Japan - 102 kg, Germany - 73 kg, Poland - 132 kg).

Development of the service sector: population per 1 doctor; population per 1 hospital bed; providing the population with housing, household appliances, etc.

In Russia, there are 212 people per doctor. (in the USA - 382 people, Japan - 530 people, Germany - 286 people, Poland - 442 people); for 1 hospital bed - 87 people. (in the USA - 278 people, Japan - 68 people, Germany - 120 people, Poland - 195 people).

Combined indexes.

Combined indices make it possible to present the level of quality of life as a general indicator. For the purposes of international comparisons, the so-called Human Development Index (HDI), or the Human Development Index (HDI) for short, is used. The human development index contains four problems and is measured by three indicators.

Among the main indicators that determine the human development index, life expectancy, the level of education, and the real gross national product per capita are singled out. The index value ranges from 0 to 1. It is considered that countries with HDI below 0.5 have a low level of human development, if the indicator fluctuates between 0.5 and 0.8 - an average level, if it exceeds 0.8 - a high level.

The Human Development Report published by UNDP in 2002 provides human development indices in 173 countries of the world, calculated for 2000. Norway occupies the leading position (HDI is 0.942), the second place in the ranking belongs to Sweden (0.941), the third to Canada (0.940); in sixth place is the United States (0.939). Sierra Lyon has the lowest HDI (0.275). Russia, according to UNDP data, was in 2000 in the group of countries with an average HDI and ranked 60th in the list (0.781). According to this indicator, our country is ahead of Panama (0.787), Belarus (0.788), Mexico (0.796), Uruguay (0.831)

5. Indicators of economic efficiency.

This group of indicators to the greatest extent characterizes the level of economic development, as it shows - directly or indirectly - the quality, condition and level of use of the country's capital, labor resources.

The main indicators of economic efficiency are:

Labor productivity (in general, for industry and agriculture, for individual sectors and types of production).

Labor productivity shows the output (GDP) of one worker and is calculated as the ratio of the total product (GDP) and the number of employees. Hourly labor productivity in Russia is 4 times lower than in Italy, 3.8 times in France, 3.6 times in the USA, 2.8 times in Japan and Germany.

The capital intensity of a unit of GDP or a particular type of product.

Capital intensity shows how much capital resources are spent on 1 den. units final product and is calculated as the ratio of the amount of capital expended to the total product (GDP).

Return on assets of a unit of fixed assets.

Return on assets shows how many rubles of production received from 1 den. units fixed assets and is calculated as the ratio of the value of goods produced per year (GDP) to the value of fixed production assets.

Material consumption per unit of GDP or specific types of products.

Material consumption shows how much raw materials and materials are spent on 1 den. units final product and is calculated as the ratio of the cost of raw materials and materials to the total product (GDP).

It should be emphasized that the level of economic development of the country is a historical concept. Each stage of development of the national economy and the entire world community as a whole introduces certain changes in the composition of its main indicators. Despite all attempts to formulate an aggregate indicator of the effectiveness of the functioning of the national economy, which would also reflect the level of economic development of the country, such an indicator has not been created due to the numerous difficulties in bringing together cost and natural values, the costs of skilled and unskilled labor, etc.

Indicators of the level of economic development of the country:

1. GDP/GNP per capita.

This is the leading indicator in the analysis of the level of economic development. It is the basis of international classifications that divide countries into developed and developing countries. In some developing countries (for example, in Saudi Arabia), the per capita GDP indicator is at a high level, corresponding to developed industrial countries, however, according to the totality of other indicators (sectoral structure of the economy, production of basic types of products per capita, etc.), such countries cannot be classified as developed.

2. Sectoral structure of the national economy.

Its analysis is carried out on the basis of GDP calculated by industry. First of all, the ratio between the large national economic sectors of material and non-material production is taken into account. In developed countries, the service sector dominates, accounting for more than 60% of GDP. In developing countries, the largest share is occupied by agriculture and the mining industry. In transition economies, the share of the service sector is growing and the share of industry and agriculture is declining.

The study of the structure of individual industries is also important. Thus, a sectoral analysis of the manufacturing industry shows what proportion it is occupied by mechanical engineering and chemistry, i.e. industries providing scientific and technological progress. The diversification of leading industries is great. For example, the number of machine-building industries and industries in the industrialized countries of the world reaches 150-200 or more, and only 10-15 in countries with a relatively low level of economic development.

3. Production of main types of products per capita (the level of development of individual industries).

The indicators of production of some basic types of products, which are basic for the development of the national economy, are considered; they make it possible to judge the possibilities of meeting the needs of the country in these basic types of products.

Electricity production per capita.

Steel smelting and production of rolled products, machine tools, automobiles, mineral fertilizers, chemical fibers, paper and a number of other goods.

Production in the country per capita of the main types of food products: grain, milk, meat, sugar, potatoes, etc.

Production per capita of non-food products: fabrics, clothing, footwear, knitwear, etc.

4. The level and quality of life of the population.

The standard of living of the population of the country is largely characterized by the following indicators:

Structure of GDP by use.

Particularly important is the analysis of the structure of private final consumption (personal consumer spending). A large share in the consumption of durable goods and services indicates a higher standard of living of the population and, consequently, a higher overall level of economic development of the country.

The state of the labor force: average life expectancy, the level of education of the population, per capita consumption of basic food products, the level of qualification of the labor force, the share of expenditures on education in GDP, etc.

Consumption of basic foodstuffs per capita is also one of the most important indicators characterizing the standard of living of the population.

Development of the service sector: population per 1 doctor; population per 1 hospital bed; providing the population with housing, household appliances, etc.

Combined indexes.

Combined indices make it possible to present the level of quality of life as a general indicator. For the purposes of international comparisons, the so-called Human Development Index (HDI), or the Human Development Index (HDI) for short, is used. The human development index contains four problems and is measured by three indicators.