The Russian currency was able to “go positive” against its world counterparts in the post-operation hours on Tuesday. Result of the day in dollars - ₽56.09, in euros - ₽59.84. “Acquisitions” of the ruble amounted to 2.5 kopecks. and 1.0 kop. respectively. Push to Strengthen monetary unit The Russian Federation published a publication by the American Petroleum Institute on raw material reserves in the United States. According to information released last night, the contents of American oil reservoirs decreased by 1.83 million barrels over the week. Prior to this, API specialists recorded an increase in inventories for 6 weeks in a row. Inspired by the report, oil bulls hastened to increase prices. The results of the last session for the Brent mixture were $54.17. This morning the barrel continued its upward movement, reaching $54.53 by 08:46 Moscow time. The rise in price of the main “guide” of the Russian currency creates the preconditions for the growth of the ruble in the first minutes of the upcoming trading and during the second quarter as a whole. Over a longer term horizon, the Russian currency will begin to weaken, say experts interviewed the day before.

“The ruble will continue to strengthen in the second trimester,” predicts Alexander Razuvaev from the Alpari investment group.

The growth rate will be more moderate.

— Global investment banks still consider the ruble one of the most promising currencies on the planet. As long as the opportunity to earn money from the difference in interest rates remains, that is, to work in the carry trade segment, the ruble, in my opinion, will rise in price,” the expert continued.

In the third quarter, risks for the Russian currency will increase.

— The second half of the year for the domestic currency is always worse than the first. Currently, emerging markets are not so dependent on Fed rates, but the interest of the authorities, who need a weak ruble to fill the budget, will help reduce prices national currency in the third quarter,” warned the Alpari analyst.

Razuvaev’s forecast for the next trimester suggests a “sliding” of the ruble to the area of ​​₽62.00−67.00 against the dollar.

Independent analyst Igor Dmitriev also spoke about the risks of the national currency becoming cheaper.

— Now the ruble’s position looks quite strong, but the cycle of its strengthening is coming to an end. The reverse process can begin at any time. The government, which fills the budget from foreign currency sources, does not need a strong ruble. Therefore, there is no need to expect further strengthening: the ruble, in best case scenario, will remain on current levels,” the expert shared his thoughts.

Experts interviewed by Reuters also expect a weakening of the Russian currency. About a dozen specialists interviewed by the agency predict a shift in the RUR/USD pair to ₽60.50 at the end of the third quarter and to ₽61.00 at the end of 2017.

The Russian authorities, for their part, allow oil prices to fall by 20% from current values. The possibility of a barrel falling to the $40 mark, in particular, was mentioned on March 23 by the head of the revenue department of the Ministry of Finance, Elena Lebedinskaya.

website 07/04: The new head of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Maxim Oreshkin recommends that the population purchase foreign currency. According to the official, at the moment the dollar and euro exchange rates look very attractive for purchase. At current rates, the Bank of Russia will more actively reduce the key rate, which will support the fall in the ruble exchange rate.

Forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development: the ruble exchange rate will fall

The Ministry of Economic Development has radically revised its forecasts for the country's economy. According to the department in 2017:

• the average oil price will be $45.6 per barrel (versus $40 per barrel previously);
• ruble exchange rate: 68 rubles per dollar by the end of the year (with an oil price of $40 per barrel);
• at current prices for oil, the ruble exchange rate will drop to 63-64 rubles per dollar by summer;
• average dollar to ruble exchange rate: 64.2;
• inflation will drop to 3.8% even if the ruble exchange rate falls;
• Russian GDP: +2%;
• unemployment rate: 5.2%;
• Budget deficit: 2% of GDP.

Among the main risks is slowdown economic growth China, as a result of which the volume of exports to this country will decrease. The Ministry of Economic Development notes the low probability of deflationary risks. Also, until now, no decision has been made on dividends from state-owned companies.

As for the payment of dividends, they will traditionally have an impact on. We remind you that payments are made in rubles, so many exporters will have to convert part foreign exchange earnings. However, many shareholders are non-residents and part of the dividends received will be converted back into foreign currency.

Online forecasts of the ruble exchange rate

About the ruble exchange rate

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2018 will be a turning point in the crisis for the Russian currency. In the coming months, foreign capital flows will provide the ruble with very significant support in the conditions economic sanctions and will run out. And next year their flight will begin. This is precisely the opinion reached by economists from the world's leading investment banks surveyed by Bloomberg.

The ruble may lose its investment attractiveness

According to survey results, foreign funds that have invested about $15 billion in Russian OFZs will lose interest in ruble assets in 2018 and will begin to close their investments, selling off Russian currency and curtailing carry-trade operations.

The main reasons for possible capital flight from Russia are the low price of oil, the expansion of economic sanctions and an increase in the Fed interest rate.

Let us remember that thanks to the tough policy of the Bank of Russia, the ruble has become the favorite currency of speculators. Receiving loans in dollars and euros under interest rate at approximately 1% per annum, banks and funds buy, the yield of which is 7.5% and higher. At the same time, a stable or even strengthening ruble makes it possible to withdraw them back after some time, receiving a very high foreign exchange profit by world standards.

However, as the Central Bank of the Russian Federation lowers the interest rate, and the Federal Reserve, on the contrary, increases it, it decreases, making investments in ruble assets less attractive.

Following the September meeting, the Fed clearly indicated that it would increase the cost of borrowing in dollars in December and predicted a threefold tightening monetary policy in 2018. In addition, the Federal Reserve has begun to shrink its balance sheet, reducing the excess dollar liquidity that flooded the markets after the crisis in 2008. Along with this, the Bank of Russia reduced the key rate to 8.5% per annum, which is the minimum for three years, and also stated that another rate reduction is possible in the coming quarters.

Arithmetic of the ruble carry trade for dummies

Meanwhile, pressure on the assets and securities of emerging economies is beginning to increase. The largest US exchange-traded fund investing in EM debt and currencies has seen a steady outflow of funds since July. During this time, clients demanded back $1.2 billion, forcing the fund to close positions.

It is very likely that demand will continue to fall due to the gradual withdrawal of global players from EM securities and geopolitical negativity towards Russia. This means that the ruble may soon lose its attractiveness for carry trades.

The real interest rate in Russia is one of the highest in the world. It is 5.3% per annum - this is exactly how much the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation exceeds the inflation rate. The Federal Reserve's interest rate is slightly lower than the rate of price growth, so in the United States the real interest rate is negative.

On this moment the difference between the real interest rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the US Federal Reserve is 5.85 percentage points. If this difference decreases to 3.5 percentage points, investment in Russian assets will lose their attractiveness.

In other words, for carry speculators to leave the ruble, the Bank of Russia does not even have to lower its rate. It is enough for the Fed to increase its interest rate five times, and inflation in Russia accelerates to 4.4%.

Currency risks for the ruble remain

At the same time, the risks of investing in the ruble have not disappeared. Dollar income in Russia depends on the dynamics of oil prices by approximately 60%. This is already enough to make the assets of some countries in Central and South-Eastern Europe look more attractive. The smaller interest rate difference, within 1-2%, is compensated by much lower currency risks.

For the ruble, one of the key risk factors remains the possibility of new economic sanctions from the United States, which completely prohibit investing in the Russian debt market.

The US Department of the Treasury has already received instructions to prepare the appropriate regulatory framework. Need I say that if such sanctions come into force, they will be immediately stopped and a powerful outflow of capital will begin?

Risks for the ruble are not limited to sanctions alone. In addition to them and the fall in oil prices, risk factors are the situation with North Korea, Ukraine, as well as the future presidential elections in Russia.

conclusions

Some may find our calculations too gloomy. In this case, we advise you to pay attention to the Russian Ministry of Finance long term forecast parameters federal budget. It is based on the chronic depreciation of the ruble.

According to the forecast of the financial department, the depreciation of the ruble will begin in 2018. The basic forecast assumes a depreciation of the ruble by an average of 10% every 5 years, but the dollar could overcome the mark of 70 and even 80 rubles much faster if the United States strengthens sanctions against Russia and extends them to investments in Russian government debt.

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On the weekend and Monday, it increased to 59.28 rubles. The euro exchange rate has also increased: the European currency is trading at 68.97 rubles. The cost of the bi-currency basket, calculated according to official courses for the weekend and Monday, increased by 10.21 kopecks compared to Friday, amounting to 63.64 rubles.

Lately, the Russian currency has been shaking from side to side: the ruble has been strengthening, fueled by rising oil prices against the backdrop of the arrests of princes in Saudi Arabia, then the next day it falls along with the prices of “black gold”. On some days, the ruble and oil move in different directions: oil prices rise, and the ruble falls.

Experts' forecasts are also contradictory: some, having seen that the price of oil has broken through another psychologically important mark of $64 per barrel, say that the ruble should rise, others think exactly the opposite.

Judging by public surveys, Russians are preparing for a weakening of the ruble. As follows from a recent study, our fellow citizens believe the ruble exchange rate is overvalued.

Thus, about 60% of respondents do not rule out that in three months the value of the dollar will increase to 63 rubles, and 49% of respondents believe that in a year it will be about 64 rubles.

Experts interviewed by Gazeta.Ru also believe that the ruble will fall in the near future, and if at some point the dollar or euro falls for a short time, then it is worth stocking up on foreign currency as soon as possible before the New Year holidays.

At the end of the year, the dollar may cross the 60 ruble mark, analysts say. At the same time, the Russian currency may sink even more. According to financial analyst FxPro Alexander, the dollar can cost more than 65 rubles.

The exchange rate of the Russian currency is influenced by a number of factors. Firstly, this is with your currency purchases on domestic market. From November 8, the ministry increased the daily purchase of foreign currency from 3.5 to 5.8 billion rubles. in a day. The department will work in such volumes until December 6 of this year. “This distorts the balance of supply and demand in the market,” says Timur, financial analyst at Otkritie Broker.

When the Ministry of Finance first entered the market, the volume of purchases was not so large and had almost no effect on the ruble exchange rate, but now they have become large-scale, experts admit. The ruble no longer manages to brush them aside, as it did in the first months of the year, and the very thought of the presence of such a seller affects the course of trading on stock exchange .

Thus, in the third quarter of this year, the Ministry of Finance bought about $2 billion worth of currencies, and in just one year the volume of purchases could exceed $12 billion, experts from the Development Center write in Comments on the State and Business.

“This practice of the department prevents the ruble from growing stronger than it could be at current oil prices,” says Kuptsikevich.

This week, the price of Brent oil broke through the psychologically important mark of $64 per barrel. This was the highest since June 2015. This rise in prices for “black gold” occurred against the backdrop of an anti-corruption scandal in Saudi Arabia. This was followed by a pullback in oil prices.

Experts say further weakening of the ruble is also possible due to the ongoing rollback in oil prices. There is no clarity on this issue: the oil market now needs a break to assess the current balance of supply and demand. As of 14.24 Moscow time, January futures for Brent oil reached $63.97.

“November and December are traditionally weak months for the ruble. If you look at the history of the last 15 years, there were only a couple of years when the ruble strengthened against the downward trend at the end of the year.

At the same time, it didn’t matter at all whether oil was growing or not,” states Vladimir, leading analyst management company"Horizon".

As Nigmatullin notes, at the end of the year quotes The ruble is usually pressured by the fact that companies are paying off external debts. As a rule, external debts are denominated in dollars, and companies have to sell rubles and buy American currency on the stock exchange to service its external debt.

According to macroeconomic statistics in the fourth quarter of 2017 - the first quarter of 2018, the amount of payments for external debt non-financial organizations, including principal and interest, is $25 and $28.6 billion, respectively. Traditionally, significant volumes of payments, according to macrostatistics, occur in December ($15 billion). A comparable volume of payments ($16 billion) falls on January 2018.

However, the Bank of Russia notes that, as historical experience shows, a significant part of these payments is usually extended or refinanced. If intragroup payments are excluded, net payments could reach up to $23.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2017 and $15.9 billion in the first quarter of 2018.

In addition, according to the leading analyst of Teletrade Group, strong factors are acting against the ruble. “This is a general rise in the dollar around the world due to the prospects of the US President's tax reform and policy changes. In addition, this is also the possible adoption of new sanctions against Russia before the end of the year. This is already stopping investors, as was evident during the latest OFZ placement on November 8th. Then from a tranche of 15 billion rubles. only 12.5 billion rubles were sold, and at an increased rate,” says the expert.

But at the beginning of next year, the ruble will still get a break, experts say. “Company managers will come back from vacation, see that they need to make mandatory payments, and they will need rubles. In a situation where there is a shortage of rubles, since many companies are leaving for new year holidays in the currency, considering it more stable, they will, on the contrary, convert the currency into rubles, and from mid-January the demand for rubles will begin to grow,” Rozhankovsky sums up.

Mark Goikhman, leading analyst at TeleTrade Group:

The ruble exchange rate has ceased to show miracles of strengthening. Until recently, it was supported by stable oil prices, lower inflation, high stakes, the influx of money from foreign investors into Russian stocks and bonds as part of the carry trade.

Now all this is changing. To summarize, we get the following.

1. Oil prices fell below $48 per barrel in Brent due to large reserves and increased production in the USA, Canada, Brazil, and Libya.

2. The Fed raises interest rates for banks and financial markets. Since December, it has increased from 0.5% to 1.25% and will gradually increase further. And our Central Bank, on the contrary, is reducing its rate to facilitate lending in the economy and due to a reduction in inflation from 5.4% in 2016 to 4.1% in May 2017. Key rate The Central Bank of the Russian Federation decreased over six months from 10% to 9% and by the end of the year it will probably reach 8%.

3. For investors, all this reduces the profitability of investing in ruble assets compared, for example, with dollar assets, which reduces the demand for the ruble and its exchange rate.

4. An additional negative for him is the investigation in the United States around the hypothetical influence of Russia on their elections, accusations against D. Trump. They create risks associated with Russia, which limits investments in rubles. This is also facilitated by the possible introduction of new US financial sanctions, which would be very negative for the country.

And now the question is - what next? The above factors continue to operate, and the ruble will gradually become cheaper. Right now it remains too expensive. The price of a barrel of oil in rubles is less than 2,800 rubles. And for the budget you need at least 3000-3100 rubles/barrel.

The increase, obviously, will then tend to the level of 63-67 rubles/dollar. in the coming months.

But at the same time there will be no collapse of our currency. Currently, the resistance of the USD/RUB pair on Forex is the level of 58.6 rubles/dollar. If it is broken, the smooth growth will continue until the next most important technical and psychological resistance of 60 rubles/dollar. The increase, obviously, will then tend to the level of 63-67 rubles/dollar. in the coming months. But hardly higher. The limiting factors are as follows. For oil, a gradual increase in prices is likely until the end of the year in the range of 50-55 dollars per barrel. After all, a reduction in production by 1.8 million barrels. per day in OPEC+ countries, extended until the 1st quarter of 2018, is still faster than its growth in other countries. Reserves and supply of “black gold” will decrease, and demand will rise, especially at low prices.

Most likely, the correction range is up to 67 rubles/dollar. will continue for the coming six months.

Interest rates on ruble assets, despite their “countermovement” with dollar assets, remain much higher than the world average. Russian ten-year OFZs, although they have dropped from the previous 8.5%, remain at a high level of 7.9%. The gradual cessation of the decline of our country’s economy in 2017 will also prevent the ruble from falling much. So most likely the correction range is up to 67 rubles/dollar. will continue for the coming six months. The classic correction level of 38.2% of the decline since the beginning of 2016 is located at 67.2 rubles/dollar.