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The latest forecast for the US dollar to ruble exchange rate for 2018 - a table with currency forecasts by month. Expert opinion on the prospects for the USD/RUB pair exchange rate in Russia.

Fresh dollar exchange rate forecast. Will there be growth?

Here's how he assesses the dollar's prospects for the fall and winter of 2018 Kira Yukhtenko, chief editor of InvestFuture and stock columnist:

Until we see the final version of US sanctions against Russia, it will not be easy for the dollar to firmly gain a foothold below 65 rubles. There is too much uncertainty for investors. We do not know whether the sanctions will affect Russian state-owned banks and whether a ban will be introduced on the ownership of Russian government bonds.

In my opinion, the following scenario is likely: in November the ruble will face increased volatility. After the elections to the US Congress on November 6 and the meeting between Trump and Putin on November 11, the American side will return to discussing sanctions. During this period, the dollar can rise above 70 and even above 75 rubles.

In fact, sanctions may not be as tough as the market fears. And if the price of Brent oil remains at least above $70 per barrel until the end of the year, the ruble will have a chance to strengthen in December.

However, do not let your guard down: economists are warning of a new global crisis already in 2019-2020. If the gloomy forecasts come true, the currencies of all developing countries, including the ruble, will suffer

What will happen to the dollar/ruble exchange rate in 2018?

Dollar/ruble chart (Weekly)

No one can accurately predict the dollar exchange rate - too many factors simultaneously participate in its formation. But, taking into account the high foreign policy risks and structural problems in the Russian economy, experts agree: the ruble exchange rate may continue to decline in the fall and winter of 2018.

At the end of 2018, the dollar to ruble exchange rate may rise to 73-75 rubles. If you want to buy a currency for long-term savings, listen to the advice of economists: any depreciation can be used for purchases

Risk factors for the ruble

• The Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to raise interest rates, which puts long-term pressure on the currencies of all developing countries
• Waiting for the final package of anti-Russian sanctions from the United States in November 2018. Additional sanctions from the EU and UK are also possible.
• Possible decline in oil prices - the United States insists that Russia and Saudi Arabia “bring down” the price by increasing production
• Trade wars around the world - possible slowdown in growth rates of all major economies in the world

Factors supporting the ruble

• The Central Bank of the Russian Federation raised the key rate in September 2018, and also suspended currency purchases for the Ministry of Finance as part of the budget until the end of the year. This decision allowed the exchange rate to stabilize in September.
• Until the fall, the price of oil continued to rise thanks to the OPEC agreement, as a deficit formed in the market.

Economists believe that the positive factors listed above will limit the potential for the ruble to weaken in the coming months. Without them, the Russian currency would be in danger of falling more rapidly.

Dollar forecast for 2018 by month. Table

Based on the forecasts of 11 stock analysts, we compiled average forecasts for the USD/RUB pair by month. The data in the table is given at the end of the month.

Month	Average forecast at the end of the month, rub.
October 2018	67,98
November 2018	70,39
December 2018	68,25

Forecasts for the end of 2018 by month

Dollar forecast for October 2018

The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for October 2018 is 67.98 rubles. October may turn out to be a difficult month for the ruble: we are waiting for details of US sanctions against Russia and fighting panic within the country.

Dollar forecast for November 2018

The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for November 2018 is 70.39 rubles. On November 6, elections to the US Congress will take place, and after this date, Republicans and Democrats can resume discussion of anti-Russian sanctions.

Dollar forecast for December 2018

The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for December 2018 is 68.25 rubles. The market is focusing on the last Fed meeting of the year, which will clarify the central bank’s plans for 2019.

This page collects information from various sources attempting to predict the dollar's exchange rate for the foreseeable future. Take this no more seriously than a horoscope: the only reliable knowledge that can be obtained by delving into such predictions is that it is simply impossible to accurately predict the exchange rate.

Unfortunately, forecasts are not available at this time.

Forecast on the relationship between oil and the ruble exchange rate

There is an opinion that the exchange rate of the dollar or euro (or rather, the exchange rate or strength of the ruble as a currency) is closely related to the price of oil. Some minds look at the oil price chart and try to predict the rise or fall of the national currency based on the corresponding movements in the prices of this energy carrier.

We analyze quotes for both in real time and publish here simple odds that reflect the presence or absence of a linear correlation between them.

Pearson ratio chart for the last 30 days: oil and dollar

Pearson coefficient = -0.9232

There is a correlation.

If the Pearson coefficient in absolute value tends to unity, and the points on the graph above tend to line up in a diagonal line, then we can judge the presence of a linear correlation in the interval under consideration. Below we provide a graph of the monthly history of these odds.

History of fluctuations in the Pearson coefficient over the past year

It can be seen that over time the correlation may appear stronger, or it may disappear or even be reversed. So oil is just one of the factors and not always very significant.

In summary, there is no exact way to predict the dollar exchange rate. On the Internet you can unearth more complex calculations, articles and even books on this topic. Traders in the foreign exchange markets use their models trained using machine learning, a bunch of factors tested in forex battles. But they all work only under certain conditions and for certain purposes. At the layman's level, they are almost useless.

There are also a lot of sites on the Internet with outright trash. I saw a resource with many tables with forecasts for a week, month, year - any period. By all indications, all these tables are simply generated by random numbers. And even in this form, this analysis is still suitable for the average person. Because no one knows the future and everyone makes mistakes.

The official dollar to ruble exchange rate set by the Central Bank of Russia for tomorrow.

62.0315 RUB for 1 USD

Change of course

Latest values

2019-12-29 Sun	62,0315	0,0000	0,00%
2019-12-28 Sat	62,0315	0.2639	0.43%
2019-12-27 Fri	61,7676	0.0512	0.08%
2019-12-26 Thu	61,7164	−0,4509	−0,73%
2019-12-25 Wed	62,1673	−0,0826	−0,13%

Dollar exchange rate in other central banks

National Bank of the Republic of Belarus

1 USD

2.1065 BYN

Ruble to dollar exchange rate for tomorrow

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation determines the official dollar exchange rate for tomorrow based on information on the weighted average dollar exchange rate at trading on the Moscow Currency Exchange, received for the current day at 11:30 am Moscow time. This is enough to get a dollar exchange rate forecast for tomorrow.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation uses the weighted average dollar exchange rate for calculations “for tomorrow” from the opening of the Moscow Exchange until 11:30 (USD/RUB - TOD). The Bank of Russia checks dollar quotes from the exchange and issues an order “On exchange rates foreign currencies", which sets the official dollar exchange rate for tomorrow.

On this page, the Central Bank dollar exchange rate for tomorrow appears immediately after the official publication by the Bank of Russia - every working day after 12 noon.

The new official dollar exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation begins to operate on the next day after the order is signed and becomes official rate USD CBR until the next order appears.

Thus, the Bank of Russia order signed on Friday will determine the dollar exchange rate for the next three days: Saturday, Sunday and Monday. On Monday, the next online dollar trading will take place on the stock exchange and the exchange rate for Tuesday will be determined. Likewise for other days of the week.

During weekends and holidays, the dollar exchange rate does not change.

Currency quotes are of interest not only to financial analysts; ordinary Russians are no less interested in the forecast for the exchange rate of the dollar, euro and ruble. It is difficult for an inexperienced citizen without special education and knowledge to understand how justified this or that forecast published in the press is. Often even knowledgeable analysts interpret the same event in their own way.

The portal has examined the most significant information and, based on it, provides a forecast of the dollar exchange rate for the near future and until the end of 2019.

What will happen to the dollar: expert opinion

Analysts foreign exchange market Russia has noticed a new trend - a decrease in the dependence of the ruble exchange rate on the cost of a barrel. Especially in the short term. At a particular point in time, the national currency shows greater stability than oil. And in other periods it declines much faster than the price of “black gold” changes. This happens due to the so-called " budget rule": when revenues received from the oil sector exceed those budgeted, they are converted into foreign currency and sent to reserve fund.

This strategy reduces the volatility of the Russian ruble, that is, it reduces the limits of currency volatility or the range of its prices over a certain period of time. The more the oil price rises relative to the previous month, the more interventions are directed to the reserve fund. As the indicator decreases, the infusions decrease.

But completely break away from oil and gas industry The Russian currency still cannot. The increase in the dollar exchange rate over the three months of summer from 63 to 67 rubles per unit was due, among other things, to the price of a barrel - from 68 to 57 $. The September strengthening of the ruble is also associated with the price of oil. Brent rose by $5.5 over the summer, from 57.5 to 63.

Therefore, if we ignore short-term changes in the ruble exchange rate, we should evaluate the general prospects for a fall or rise in prices on the oil and gas market in the next 3-4 months.

Barrel: optimistic scenario

Oil production and trade is a global process, involving all developed and developing countries of the world. It is influenced by many political and economic factors. On the main thing economic law the price on the market is set by a balance between supply and demand. But for this product, much more indicators are involved in pricing. In particular, the OPEC+ deal significantly controls the supply of crude oil. In the near future, the established limit of 1.2 million barrels per day will not be revised. Therefore, oil prices will not change dramatically until the end of this year.

In September, the world community received real proof of the market’s dependence on oil production in the Middle East. Terrorist attacks on rigs in Saudi Arabia led to a drop in pumping by 6 million barrels per day, and this is a significant indicator for the global balance. Although the country is striving to neutralize the consequences of the attacks and is carrying out repairs urgently. In the coming days, SA will restore production and will likely increase it to catch up.

The supply is also influenced by the production of “black gold” in the United States of America. Since the beginning of autumn 2019, the indicators have been at historical maximum levels of 12.4 million barrels. per day. But the media persistently announces information about a decrease in drilling activity in the United States. As a result, if the United States reduces production, the demand for imported petroleum raw materials will increase. At the same time, the US Department of Energy forecasts the price per barrel at $65.15 by the end of this year.

This state of affairs in America allows us to make an optimistic forecast about the exchange rate of the Russian currency to the dollar within the range of 64-65 rubles.

But it’s not just oil that dictates prices, so it’s important to take other factors into account.

Declining oil demand The second factor that determines the market price is demand. In this area, the main driving force is trade wars between countries. When there is a surge in economic and political life

world powers and the escalation of conflicts, there is a redistribution of roles between participants and dependent states.

• Analysts and experts rightly draw a parallel between the growing trade conflict between the United States and China and the decreasing demand for oil. The PMI fell below 50 points in China and the Eurozone. And then this figure fell in the United States. A fall below 50 units results in:
• reduction in purchases;
• reduction in the production of goods;
• decrease in exports;

decline in employment in the manufacturing sector.

The most serious macroeconomic factor that had a negative impact on the European Union was that the German economy contracted by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter. If such a low indicator remains in one of the leading EU countries, not only will the euro exchange rate fall, but it will pass the psychological threshold in the Russian Federation of 70 rubles. This has already been observed several times during September trading on the Moscow Exchange. Analysts in medium term portend the euro not only a parity rate with American currency , but also its decline compared to the dollar. Can prevent this domestic politics

The United States, if significant exporters enter the confrontation. Such a rigid strengthening of their own currency is not beneficial for them.

Realistic scenario

1. The decline in business activity in trade and production led to negative consequences in a number of industries:
2. International air travel fell 3.2% year over year at midsummer.
3. Passenger vehicle sales in India, Asia's second-largest market, fell by 30%.

Analyzing demand is many times more difficult than supply. Therefore, the accuracy of the calculations is always approximate. But the International Energy Agency at the end of the summer of 2019 lowered its oil demand forecast for 2019 and 2020. This is not the first decrease in the indicator. Therefore, a second revision of the data is possible before the end of this year or at the beginning of 2020.

Taking into account demand analytics, we can assume the exchange rate of the Russian currency to the dollar at the end of autumn or closer to December at 67 rubles.

Currency returns

All currency pairs are influenced by real interest rates. They are calculated based on the return the investor receives. It depends on investments in financial instruments - shares, bonds, which are issued in different currencies. Real profitability is also determined by the nominal rate, which is regulated by the main bank of the country.

Russia last years kept real rates high in relation to inflation. Even after repeated reductions, the real rate on 10-year federal loan bonds (OFZ) remains at 3%. This situation encourages investors to purchase Russian rubles to purchase reliable financial instruments, and invest, in particular, in OFZs. At the same time, in the United States the real rate is at a negative level of -0.2%.

From September 12, 2019, the EU Central Bank kept the base rate at zero, and reduced the rate on deposits from -0.4 to -0.5%. German bonds yield losses of -0.6%, Italian bonds yield +0.8%, Italian bonds yield +0.15%. At the same time, the EU Central Bank warned about the implementation of an asset purchase program from November 1, 2019. The planned volume is 20 billion euros per month. Such actions against the backdrop of a soft monetary policy inevitably provoke a weakening of the position of the national currency, in this case the euro.

Taking into account all the calculations and after subtracting inflation, the return on currencies can be expressed in the table:

The more real rates in the EU and the US decline, the more favorable the situation will be for strengthening the position of the Russian ruble.

Macroeconomic factors

The introduction of the “fiscal rule” in the Russian Federation led to a stable surplus. For global trends, such a situation is currently very rare. The increase in reserves also strengthened the country's gold and foreign exchange reserves, exceeding the $500 billion mark. This position is second in its class of countries after China. Government debts have been reduced to zero. Russia's focus on exports has led to a positive current account position.

A stable macroeconomic position should maintain national currency RF from significant jumps. Even with short-term fluctuations in the price or demand for oil, geopolitical changes or the introduction of new sanctions, the ruble will not succumb to excessive volatility.

Therefore, foreign exchange market experts do not predict sharp jumps dollar exchange rate at the end of 2019. It is unlikely, under all other conditions, that its level would exceed the figure of 69 rubles. Analysts are inclined to believe that the dollar will cost between 65 and 67 rubles per unit in December. The forecast for the euro exchange rate at the end of the year is in the same range, with a small upper adjustment from 65 to 72 rubles.