Fifth anniversary of WTO membership. WTO (World Trade Organization) When can Belarus join the WTO

27.11.2023

(WTO) is an international organization created with the aim of liberalizing international trade and regulating trade and political relations of member states. The WTO is the successor to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which has been in force since 1947.

Established on January 1, 1995 on the basis of a system of mutual agreements (the so-called Uruguay Round) between GATT member countries.

More than 20 states and more than 60 international organizations, including the UN, IMF and World Bank, regional groupings, product associations.

Among the observer countries are Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iran, Iraq, Serbia, Uzbekistan, etc. The vast majority of observer countries are at various stages of joining the WTO.

The procedure for joining the WTO consists of several stages. This process takes on average 5-7 years.

At the first stage, within the framework of special Working Groups, a detailed consideration takes place at the multilateral level economic mechanism and the trade and political regime of the acceding country for their compliance with the norms and rules of the WTO. After this, consultations and negotiations begin on the terms of membership of the applicant country in this organization. These consultations and negotiations are usually carried out at the bilateral level with all interested member countries of the Working Group.

First of all, the negotiations concern the “commercially significant” concessions that the acceding country will be willing to provide to WTO members on access to its markets.

In turn, the acceding country, as a rule, receives the rights that all other WTO members have, which will practically mean the end of its discrimination in foreign markets.

In accordance with the established procedure, the results of all negotiations on liberalization of market access and accession conditions are formalized as follows official documents:

- report of the Working Group, which sets out the entire package of rights and obligations that the applicant country will assume as a result of the negotiations;

- a list of obligations on tariff concessions in the field of goods and on the level of support for agriculture;

- a list of specific obligations for services and a List of exceptions from the MFN (most favored nation treatment);

- protocol of accession, legally formalizing the agreements reached at the bilateral and multilateral levels.

One of the main conditions for new countries to join the WTO is to bring their national legislation and practice of regulating foreign economic activity in accordance with the provisions of the package of agreements of the Uruguay Round.

At the final stage of accession, the national legislative body of the candidate country ratifies the entire package of documents agreed upon within the Working Group and approved by the General Council. After this, these obligations become part of the legal package of WTO documents and national legislation, and the candidate country itself receives the status of a WTO member.

The highest body is the Ministerial Conference, which brings together representatives of all WTO member countries. Sessions meet every two years. In the period between sessions, its functions are carried out by the General Council (GC), which also consists of representatives of all WTO members. In addition, the GC serves as a Dispute Settlement Body and a Trade Policy Review Body. The Council for Trade in Goods, the Council for Trade in Services and the Council for Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights operate under the leadership of the GC.

The Ministerial Conference establishes a Committee on Trade and Development, a Committee on Balance of Payments Restrictions, and a Committee on Budget, Finance and administrative issues. Membership on boards and committees is open to all WTO member countries.
The Ministerial Conference appoints the Director General of the WTO.

The Director General appoints the staff of the WTO Secretariat, determines their duties and conditions of service in accordance with the provisions adopted by the Ministerial Conference.

The WTO has working and expert groups and specialized committees whose functions include establishing and monitoring compliance with competition rules, monitoring the operation of regional trade agreements and the investment climate in member countries, and admitting new members.

The terms of two of the three remaining World Trade Organization (WTO) Court of Appeal judges expire in 2019. The Americans may interfere with the appointment of new ones: Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to withdraw the United States from the WTO if it does not dance to his tune. Other countries, including those from the EU, do not support the American president. What awaits the main international trade association and how this will affect Russia - in the material of RIA Novosti.

What they fought for

The WTO, which emerged in 1995 on the basis of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), concluded in 1947, is essentially an analogue of the UN, designed to regulate international trade and promote the development of trade relations throughout the world.

Russia spent 18 years negotiating entry into the organization. For a country destined to take a leading position in the world's export of goods and services, bringing tariffs and trade rules into line with all international standards was vital.

“During the difficult and lengthy negotiation process, we agreed and brought hundreds of our tariff lines and domestic legislation into line with WTO rules. We have actually used WTO norms and standards for quite a long time. And the fact that all WTO members approved Russia’s joining the organization , is a recognition of the full readiness of the Russian economy for new conditions,” noted Vladimir Putin in an interview with RIA Novosti in 2013.

However, in reality it turned out that the WTO itself was not ready for the new economic realities. In particular, it turned out that the key problem of the main world platform intended for discussing and resolving the contradictions that have accumulated between its participants is the lack of real tools for resolving disputes.

In addition, the WTO is extremely slow in making specific decisions. The organization is clearly in urgent need of reform.

In late November, joint proposals for changes to the WTO Court of Appeal were made by China, India, the EU, Norway, Canada, Switzerland, Australia, New Zealand, Iceland, Mexico and Singapore.

Trump against

Currently, this body of the World Trade Organization has only three judges out of seven. Over the past year, the court made only three decisions - the remaining eleven, in fact, were frozen.

This suits Donald Trump quite well: because of the trade war he unleashed against the whole world, many countries affected by US protectionist policies, including China, Russia and even US allies in NAFTA - Canada and Mexico, turned to the WTO.

American politicians are accustomed to using international organizations exclusively as puppets to push their own interests. Therefore, the current US president simply does not need a strong WTO, capable of calling to account for actions aimed at slowing down global trade, and as a result, economic growth.

Back in July, the Trump administration prepared a bill that would allow WTO decisions to be ignored if they do not comply with state interests. The owner of the White House himself, in an interview with Bloomberg, said that the United States is ready to leave the organization if it “does not improve its work.”

It is significant that even when the European Union does not admit defeat in the dispute regarding the pork embargo (the EU wrongfully demands compensation of 1.39 billion euros annually for Russia’s ban on the import of European pork), Moscow prefers to resolve all issues according to the rules of the organization and is committed to dialogue with Brussels.

Alexander Lesnykh.

Established on January 1, 1995 on the basis of a system of mutual agreements (the so-called Uruguay Round) between GATT member countries.

More than 20 states and more than 60 international organizations, including the UN, IMF and World Bank, regional groupings, and commodity associations have observer status in the WTO.

The procedure for joining the WTO consists of several stages. This process takes on average 5-7 years.

At the first stage, within the framework of special Working Groups, a detailed consideration at the multilateral level of the economic mechanism and trade and political regime of the acceding country takes place for their compliance with the norms and rules of the WTO. After this, consultations and negotiations begin on the terms of membership of the applicant country in this organization. These consultations and negotiations are usually carried out at the bilateral level with all interested member countries of the Working Group.

First of all, the negotiations concern the “commercially significant” concessions that the acceding country will be willing to provide to WTO members on access to its markets.

In turn, the acceding country, as a rule, receives the rights that all other WTO members have, which will practically mean the end of its discrimination in foreign markets.

In accordance with the established procedure, the results of all negotiations on liberalization of market access and accession conditions are formalized in the following official documents:

- report of the Working Group, which sets out the entire package of rights and obligations that the applicant country will assume as a result of the negotiations;

- a list of obligations on tariff concessions in the field of goods and on the level of support for agriculture;

- a list of specific obligations for services and a List of exceptions from the MFN (most favored nation treatment);

- protocol of accession, legally formalizing the agreements reached at the bilateral and multilateral levels.

The Ministerial Conference creates the Committee on Trade and Development, the Committee on Balance of Payments Restrictions, and the Committee on Budget, Finance and Administration. Membership on boards and committees is open to all WTO member countries.
The Ministerial Conference appoints the Director General of the WTO.

The Director General appoints the staff of the WTO Secretariat, determines their duties and conditions of service in accordance with the provisions adopted by the Ministerial Conference.

The WTO has been operating since January 1, 1995, the decision to create it was made at the end of many years of negotiations within the framework of the Uruguay Round of GATT, which ended in December 1993. The WTO was officially formed at a conference in Marrakesh in April 1994, therefore the Agreement establishing the WTO is also called the Marrakesh Agreement.

While the GATT was concerned with regulating only trade in goods, the scope of the WTO is broader: in addition to trade in goods, it also regulates trade in services and trade-related aspects of intellectual property rights. The WTO has the legal status of a specialized agency of the UN system.

Initially, 77 countries joined the WTO, but by mid-2003, 146 countries – developed, developing and post-socialist – were already members. The “variegated” composition of the WTO member states is reflected in the very emblem of this organization.

Some ex-Soviet countries also joined the WTO: Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan. An important event was the entry into the WTO in December 2001 of China, considered one of the most promising participants in world trade. The WTO member countries account for approximately 95% of world trade turnover - in essence, almost the entire world market without Russia. A number of other countries have officially expressed their desire to join this organization and have the status of observer states. In 2003 there were 29 such countries, including the Russian Federation and some other post-Soviet states (Ukraine, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan).

Tasks of the WTO.

The main task of the WTO is to promote smooth international trade. Developed countries, on whose initiative the WTO was created, believe that it is economic freedom in international trade that contributes to economic growth and improving people's economic well-being.

It is currently believed that the world trading system must comply with the following five principles.

1). No discrimination in trade.

No state should disadvantage any other country by imposing restrictions on the export and import of goods. Ideally, on domestic market In any country there should be no differences in terms of sale between foreign products and national ones.

2). Reducing trade (protectionist) barriers.

Trade barriers are factors that reduce the possibility of foreign goods entering the domestic market of a country. These include, first of all, customs duties and import quotas (quantitative restrictions on imports). International trade is also affected by administrative barriers and foreign exchange rate policies.

3). Stability and predictability of trading conditions.

Foreign companies, investors and governments must be confident that trade conditions (tariff and non-tariff barriers) will not be changed suddenly and arbitrarily.

4). Stimulating competition in international trade.

For equal competition among firms different countries it is necessary to stop “unfair” methods of competition - such as export subsidies (state assistance to exporting firms), the use of dumping (deliberately low) prices to capture new markets.

5). Benefits in international trade for less developed countries.

This principle partly contradicts the previous ones, but it is necessary for being drawn into world economy underdeveloped countries of the periphery, which obviously cannot compete with developed countries on equal terms at first. Therefore, it is considered “fair” to give special privileges to underdeveloped countries.

In general, the WTO promotes the ideas of free trade (free trade), fighting for the elimination of protectionist barriers.

Practical principles of the WTO.

The activities of the WTO are based on three international agreements signed by the majority of states actively participating in world economic relations: the General Agreement on Trade in Goods (GATT) as amended in 1994, the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) and the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) . The main purpose of these agreements is to provide assistance to firms from all countries engaged in export-import transactions.

Implementation of WTO agreements, as a rule, brings not only long-term benefits, but also short-term difficulties. For example, reducing protective customs tariffs makes it easier for buyers to purchase cheaper foreign goods, but can lead to the ruin of domestic producers if they produce goods at high costs. Therefore, according to WTO rules, member states are allowed to carry out the envisaged changes not instantly, but gradually, according to the principle of “progressive liberalization”. However, developing countries are usually given a longer period to fully implement their obligations.

Free Trade Commitments , accepted by all WTO members constitute the “multilateral trading” system. Most countries on the planet, including all major importing and exporting countries, are members of this system. However, a number of states are not included in it, which is why the system is called “multilateral” (and not “worldwide”). In the future, as the number of WTO participants expands, the “multilateral trade” system should turn into truly “world trade”.

Main functions of the WTO:

– control over compliance with the requirements of the basic WTO agreements;

– creating conditions for negotiations between WTO member countries regarding foreign economic relations;

– settlement of disputes between states on issues of foreign economic trade policy;

– control over the policies of WTO member states in the field of international trade;

– providing assistance to developing countries;

– cooperation with other international organizations.

Since the texts of agreements are drawn up and signed by a large number of countries involved in foreign trade relations, they often give rise to debates and disputes. Often, parties entering into negotiations have different goals. In addition, agreements and contracts (including those concluded after lengthy negotiations mediated by the WTO) often require further interpretation. Therefore, one of the main tasks of the WTO is precisely to serve as a kind of mediator in trade negotiations and to facilitate the settlement of disputes.

The practice of international economic conflicts has shown that controversial issues are best resolved in the manner established by the WTO, based on a mutually agreed upon legal basis and providing parties with equal rights and opportunities. It is for this purpose that the texts of agreements signed within the WTO necessarily include a clause on the rules for settling disputes. As the text of the agreement on rules and procedures for dispute settlement states, “the WTO dispute settlement system is a key element in ensuring the security and predictability of the global trading system.”

WTO members undertake not to take unilateral action against possible violations of trade rules. Moreover, they undertake to resolve disputes within the framework of the multilateral dispute settlement system and to comply with its rules and decisions. Decisions on controversial issues are made by all member states usually by consensus, which is an additional incentive to strengthen harmony within the WTO.

Organizational structure of the WTO.

The governing bodies of the WTO have three hierarchical levels (Fig. 1).

Strategic decisions at the highest level in the WTO are made by the Ministerial Conference, which meets at least once every two years.

Subordinate to the Ministerial Conference is the General Council, which is responsible for the implementation current work and meets several times a year at its headquarters in Geneva, composed of representatives of WTO member countries (usually ambassadors and heads of delegations of member countries). The General Council has two special bodies - for the analysis of trade policy and for the resolution of disputes. In addition, special committees report to the General Council: on trade and development; on restrictions related to the trade balance; on budget, finance and administrative issues.

The WTO General Council acts as a dispute resolution body to resolve conflicts arising in connection with the implementation of basic agreements. It has the exclusive power to establish panels to consider specific disputes, approve reports submitted by such panels as well as the appellate body, monitor the implementation of decisions and recommendations, and authorize retaliatory measures in the event of non-compliance with recommendations.

The General Council partially delegates its functions to three councils located at the next level of the WTO hierarchy - the Council for Trade in Goods, the Council for Trade in Services and the Council for Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights.

The Council for Trade in Goods, in turn, manages the activities of specialized committees that monitor compliance with WTO principles and the implementation of GATT 1994 agreements in the field of trade in goods.

The Council for Trade in Services monitors the implementation of the GATS agreement. It includes the Trade Committee financial services and the Professional Services Working Group.

The Council on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights, in addition to monitoring implementation of the TRIPS agreement, also addresses issues related to the international trade in counterfeit goods.

The WTO Secretariat, which is based in Geneva, has about 500 full-time employees; it is headed by the Director General of the WTO (since 2002 - Supachai Panitchpakdi). The WTO Secretariat, unlike similar bodies of other international organizations, does not make independent decisions, since this function is assigned to the member countries themselves. The main responsibilities of the Secretariat are to ensure technical support various WTO councils and committees, as well as the Ministerial Conference, provide technical assistance to developing countries, conduct analysis of world trade and explain WTO provisions to the public and the media. The Secretariat also provides some forms of legal assistance in the dispute resolution process and advises governments of countries wishing to become members of the WTO.

Contradictions between WTO member countries.

Although the WTO charter declares the equality of all member countries, within this organization there are strong objective contradictions between developed and developing countries.

Developing countries have cheap but not very skilled labor. Therefore, Third World states can import mainly traditional goods - primarily fabrics and clothing, and agricultural products. Developed countries, while protecting their textile industries and agribusinesses, limit imports from developing countries by imposing high customs duties on imported goods. They usually justify their protectionist measures by claiming that developing countries are using a dumping policy. In turn, developed countries are leaders in the markets for high-tech goods, and now developing countries are using protectionist measures against them.

Thus, almost all countries resort to protectionist protection to one degree or another. Therefore, mutual reduction of protectionist barriers becomes a rather difficult process.

Liberalization of world trade is also complicated by the fact that developed and developing countries differ greatly in economic strength. Therefore, the countries of the “poor South” constantly (and not without reason) suspect the countries of the “rich North” that they want to impose on them a system of world economic relations that is more beneficial to developed than developing countries. In turn, developed countries rightly note that many states openly speculate on their underdevelopment, trying to beg for concessions and benefits in international trade relations instead of carrying out economic modernization.

The asymmetry of relations between developed and developing countries is most clearly visible in the issue of protection intellectual rights property. It's about, first of all, about the fight against counterfeiting - mainly in third world countries - of trademarks of well-known companies in developed countries. Naturally, the countries of the “rich North” are much more interested in this struggle than the states of the “poor South”.

Liberalization of world trade is still objectively beneficial for both developed and developing countries. It is known, for example, that the accession of developing countries to the WTO sharply increases the influx of foreign investment. Therefore, WTO member countries seek and find compromise solutions to difficult problems.

The development strategy of the WTO was the gradual attraction of more and more countries to it, but the less developed a country’s economy is, the longer the period it has to fully implement the principles of free trade.

Benefits for new participating countries are clearly visible, first of all, in the level of tariffs on imported goods. If we compare the average level of tariffs of WTO member countries (Table 1) with the conditions under which some countries entered the WTO (Table 2), then the privileged position of the new members is noticeable. They are often allowed to apply higher import tariffs than the WTO average; Moreover, they are introducing these tariffs after a many-year transition period. Thus, new WTO participants can immediately benefit from lower tariffs on exports of their goods abroad, and the difficulties of reducing protectionist protection are eased.

Table 2. IMPORT TARIFF REQUIREMENTS FOR SOME WTO ACCESSED COUNTRIES
Country	Year of accession to the WTO	Tariffs on agricultural goods	Tariffs for other goods
Ecuador	1996	25.8%, transition period 5 years, application of special protective measures for some goods	20,1%
Panama	1997	26.1%, transition period up to 14 years, application of special protective measures for some goods	11.5%, transition period up to 14 years
Latvia	1999	33.6%; transition period 9 years	9.3%, transition period 9 years
Estonia	1999	17.7%, transition period 5 years	6.6%, transition period 6 years
Jordan	2000		25%, transition period 10 years
Oman	2000	30.5%, transition period 4 years	11%, transition period 4 years
Lithuania	2001	generally from 15 to 35% (maximum 50%), transition period 8 years	generally from 10 to 20% (maximum 30%), transition period 4 years
Compiled according to the Russia and WTO website: www.wto.ru

Struggling against restrictions imposed by developed countries on imports from the Third World, developing countries resort to WTO arbitration and seek the abolition of “anti-dumping” measures. So, in the first years of the 21st century. India appealed to the WTO to protest against the US and EU, which were imposing restrictions on the import of textiles and clothing made in India; After lengthy proceedings, the WTO ordered the defendants to cancel protectionist measures. However, conflicts of this kind often arise not only between developed and developing countries, but also between different developing countries. For example, in the second half of 2001, India initiated 51 anti-dumping proceedings at the WTO, of which 9 were against China, 7 against Singapore, 3 against Thailand.

Russia and the WTO.

As the Russian economy is increasingly integrated into world trade, there is an urgent need for our country to join the work of international economic organizations. Even during the existence of the USSR, contacts were established with the GATT. Since 1995, negotiations have been ongoing on Russia's accession to the WTO.

By joining the WTO, Russia will have the opportunity to use this entire mechanism to protect its foreign trade interests. The need for it for Russian entrepreneurs grew when, in response to a significant increase in the openness of its domestic market, Russia did not see reciprocal steps from Western countries. Instead, it was faced with trade barriers precisely for those goods where Russia has a comparative advantage in international trade, and with unfair competition from a number of foreign firms in foreign markets, as well as in the Russian domestic market.

Russia's accession to the WTO can help strengthen the stability, predictability and openness of the country's foreign trade regime, the shortcomings of which are the subject of complaints not only from foreign trade partners Russian Federation, but also exporters and importers in Russia itself.

By joining the WTO, Russia will have to assume a number of obligations contained in the WTO agreements. Along with its obligations, Russia will also receive rights that will allow it to better protect its foreign trade interests and accelerate its integration into the world economy.

The main prerequisite for successfully overcoming difficulties in the field of transformation of legislation and using its advantages within the WTO is the effective continuation of the process of improving legislation within the framework of liberal economic reforms, because this process almost completely coincides with the adaptation of legislation to the norms and rules of the WTO. We are talking, first of all, about eliminating unnecessary administrative pressure on enterprises and increasing the degree of transparency of all legislation.

From liberalization and unification Russian system government regulation The following benefits are expected:

– simplification and rationalization of procedures for confirming the conformity of manufactured products international standards, and hence – acceleration of the turnover of funds;

– increasing the competitiveness of products of Russian companies through a more flexible system of technical requirements and harmonization of national and international requirements;

– increase investment attractiveness Russian economy;

– reducing costs and eliminating duplication in oversight and compliance;

– reducing the number of documents and increasing the transparency of the regulatory system.

But liberalization of foreign economic relations will inevitably lead to significant negative consequences. This process will affect all spheres of the country’s life – political, social, industrial, financial and economic.

In the political sphere, accepting the obligations imposed by agreements with WTO member countries will lead to the inevitable weakening of national sovereignty. The restrictions will affect all branches of government - the executive (it will constantly be required to fulfill international obligations, even to the detriment of national interests), the legislative (it will have to be brought regulations in accordance with WTO requirements), judicial (legal disputes for possible violations will be considered in international courts).

In the field of social relations, accession to the WTO is also fraught negative consequences: many enterprises, and perhaps entire industries, will not be able to withstand competition with the influx of foreign goods and services. It is not yet clear what the scale of job cuts may be, but it is likely that we will be talking about hundreds of thousands of unemployed people (primarily in the light and food industries). This will require large expenses for social support, retraining, creation of new jobs, etc. This requires enormous funds, which, however, can partially be obtained from WTO partners.

Since Russian producers will have to compete with foreign ones both on the foreign and domestic markets for all product groups under very tough conditions, in the economic sphere itself, crisis phenomena can develop in two main directions.

On the one hand, foreign companies will certainly make – and on completely legal grounds – claims regarding dumping allegedly used by Russian exporters. The fact is that the cost structure of our competitive goods is very different from the world one (primarily due to savings on wages, on energy and on ecology). Therefore, Russia will be required, for example, to increase domestic energy prices, bringing them into line with world prices.

On the other hand, competition with cheaper and higher-quality goods from foreign companies will sharply intensify in the domestic market. According to some expert estimates, only 25% of domestic enterprises will be able to compete with foreign manufacturers in the domestic market. When Russia joins the WTO, the following industries will suffer: agriculture, light industry, agricultural machinery and the automotive industry, in particular the production of trucks. For others, reducing customs barriers is unprofitable, since it can lead to ruin. Therefore, as a condition for joining the WTO, Russia insists on maintaining high customs duties to protect the domestic market from subsidized products from Europe, Asia and other countries.

In this regard, so-called adaptation measures are envisaged, in particular, it is planned to adopt a law on extending the exemption of agricultural enterprises from income tax until 2016 and minimizing VAT.

Since immediate and full fulfillment of the conditions for joining the WTO seems impossible for Russia, there have been heated debates in our country regarding the advisability of this accession.

In June 2012, deputies from opposition parties submitted a request to the Constitutional Court to verify the compliance of the international treaty on Russia’s accession to the WTO with the Basic Law of the Russian Federation. On July 9, 2012, the Constitutional Court recognized that agreements with the WTO are legal.

The Russian economy will inevitably suffer major losses after joining the WTO.

Dmitry Preobrazhensky, Yuri Latov

Literature:

Afontsev S . Accession to the WTO: economic and political prospects.– Pro et contra. T. 7., 2002
Gorban M., Guriev S., Yudaeva K. Russia in the WTO: myths and reality. – Economic issues. 2002, no. 2
Maksimova M. Accession to the WTO: will we win or lose?- Man and work. 2002, No. 4
Dumoulin I.I. World Trade Organization. M., ZAO Publishing House "Economy", 2002, 2003
Internet resources: WTO website (Official website of the WTO) – http://www.wto.org/
Russia and the World Trade Organization (Russian WTO website) – http://www.wto.ru/
World Trade Organization: the future of successful trade begins today – http://www.aris.ru/VTO/VTO_BOOK

Russia celebrated the fifth anniversary of its dubious WTO membership in August of this year. The answer to the question of how much Russia needed to become a member of the World Trade Organization was obvious back in 1994, when the application was submitted. He left no doubt in 2012 when we were accepted. And there are absolutely no illusions about the feasibility of WTO membership in five years.

WAS IT NECESSARY?

From 1994 to 2011, Russia waited for the world to take pity and for the WTO to embrace it. In 2012, we became full members of this organization. Putin, discussing the feasibility of this decision, then said that Russia has more advantages than disadvantages from joining the WTO. Recognizing that there were disadvantages, he strived with all his might to join the WTO, membership in which, in his opinion, brought a number of positive aspects:

It was supposed to help create a favorable investment climate: “it is very important for a foreign potential investor to know whether a country is a member of the WTO or not”;

Non-application of non-market methods of regulation and restriction of activities in the market of third countries to Russian exporters. Russia received legal protection instruments. To put it into simple language, the WTO was supposed to change the state of export industries, that is, the oil and gas sector, for the better.

At this point, according to the president, the pros ended and the cons began, of which there were quite a few, and they were also connected with the domestic manufacturing industry, which, against the backdrop of lower customs duties, had to face increased competition: “there are not so many of them, but they exist. This is, for example, the automotive industry, where our level of customs protection is rapidly decreasing, including in the production of passenger cars,” shoe production, agricultural machinery, etc. He also pointed out that after joining the WTO, livestock farming, mechanical engineering, food and light industries will be in the most risky position. At the same time, the president admitted that joining the WTO was a serious challenge. The almost verbatim quote is: “whether the WTO will benefit or harm Russia is fifty-fifty.” In other words, having assessed the probability of causing harm to the country at 50%, Putin went for it. I wonder if he would fly on a plane if he was told there was a 50% chance of an accident?

Would they let their daughter into the park late at night if they knew that there was a 50% chance of a maniac there? Of course, this story is less about villainy than about complete professional incompetence.

He then took this step, despite the fact that export industries did not need protection even without the WTO, unlike domestic production. It is symbolic that, while discussing WTO membership, Putin misspoke and, instead of defending national interests, said “we have lagged behind and will continue to lag behind.” It’s hard to disagree with this as long as Putin and his team are at the head of the state. He knows exactly what Russia will be like under him.

However, Russia did not see any protection measures through the WTO institutions. As a result, in 2015, Putin admitted that “we were deceived” with the WTO; the structure was politicized: “The restrictions imposed on us are a rejection of the basic principles of the WTO, the principle of equal conditions of access to markets for goods and services is violated, and the principle of free competition is ignored. This is being done in a politicized way.” Did it really take 18 years of preparation for the WTO and another 5 years of membership to realize such an obvious truth?

FIFTH YEARS OF WTO MEMBERSHIP

Russia is still in a transition period and is gradually moving towards fulfilling all its obligations. But even now it can be stated that WTO membership has made its own adjustments to the state of the domestic economy.

INVESTORS

Contrary to the Kremlin's aspirations, Russia's membership in the WTO has not brought the desired influx of foreign investment. And it's not even about sanctions. The balance of foreign investment, including direct investment, was negative already in 2013, which indicates systemic problems in the economy, in which, even as a WTO member country, Russia was not very attractive to foreign investors (Fig. 1).

Rice. 1. Direct investments of the Russian Federation (balance of payments), according to the Central Bank

Sanctions of 2014 and restrictions on investment in Russian economy only accelerated the trend of foreign investors leaving the country. The main reason for the “fear” of a foreign investor lies in the unpredictable rules of the game, when the security forces can simply squeeze out a business. Or, for example, not the security forces, but the state itself will reconsider the results of the privatization deal and then give the returned asset for privatization to a company close to the president, as was the case with Yevtushenkov and his asset Bashneft. Or Putin’s Russia will start fighting, and as a warring country it is certainly not an object for investment.

Attracting foreign investment to Russia was the main argument of supporters of WTO membership. Five years have passed, and we can safely say that this advantage was only hypothetical. And the failure of the liberals’ plans is a reality.

IMPORT DUTIES

According to the obligations taken upon joining the WTO, Russia was supposed to reduce import duty rates during the transition period, which in turn gave preferences to foreign producers. The formula was simple and obvious: we will turn Russia into a sales market for the countries of the world, especially the West. Transition period the average was three years, but for the most sensitive goods - cars, helicopters, civil aircraft, as well as some food products, including fish and pork, this period was set at five to seven years.

The reduction in duties was expected to average 5–10%. For example, for the import of passenger goods they should decrease from 25% to 15%, for household electrical appliances and electronics from 15% to 7–9%.

The WTO limits Russia's ability to protect domestic producers through import duties and other instruments that are recognized as discriminatory within the WTO. This already hit some industries in 2013, when duties began to decline. But since 2014, the gradual reduction in import duties has been offset by the devaluation of the ruble, which is why imported goods have become more expensive, even despite the reduction in duties. As a result, by 2017, imports decreased by 43% compared to 2012 levels. Thus, the effect of WTO membership in terms of reducing import duties will be noticeable later. When the market adapts to the new course, the effect of reducing duties will manifest itself in a decrease in the competitiveness of domestic products.

EXPORT ISSUES

Russia has reduced export duties on a number of goods, but the playing field for the oil and gas sector has remained unchanged. The export duty on gas remained at 30%, and for oil and petroleum products the mechanism for determining the duty by the government on the basis of average price for Urals oil on world markets. It was expected that the WTO would play in favor of export industries, since according to the rules of the organization, export duties were also reduced, which opened up more opportunities for domestic producers abroad. But was it really impossible to reduce export duties without the WTO? Did this really require instructions from some organization?

Since 2012, Russia has really increased its supplies of food and engineering products. Let's analyze several commodity items that a number of experts put forward as an example of increasing exports thanks to WTO instruments (Table 1).

Table 1. Physical volume of exports, according to the Federal Customs Service

As can be seen from Table 1, the export of tractors and cars to non-CIS countries more than doubled from 2014 to 2015.

The growth in exports was due to the ruble’s own devaluation, which began in 2014 and had nothing to do with the WTO. Pork exports also increased 10-fold at the time of devaluation, increasing 4-fold the following year. Although the export of poultry and pork increased immediately after joining the WTO, it was not to the same extent as during the devaluation. It is impossible to say that the WTO helped domestic producers develop new markets, since the main determining factor was the decrease in the cost of exported goods from Russia against the backdrop of devaluation. It was necessary to sell everything possible to bring foreign currency into Russia. Effect type recent years Gorbachev's USSR. Because no serious import substitution with gross savings of less than 15% of GDP could and did not happen.

AGRICULTURE

As part of Russia's commitments by 2018, the allowable amount of subsidies to rural areas for 2018 should be 4.4 billion US dollars. When the government approved this decision, it meant a significant reduction in even those unacceptably low subsidies for agriculture. For example, in 2012 they amounted to $9.1 billion. However, after the devaluation, when the ruble depreciated almost twice, the volume of state support for agriculture almost fit into this “Procrustean bed” of WTO obligations (Fig. 2).

Rice. 2. Government spending on agriculture, according to Rosstat

In 2016, total spending on agriculture amounted to about 5.4 billion US dollars, although at the exchange rate of 2012 they would have been equal to 10.9 billion. Next year, either Russia will be forced to reduce spending on agriculture, or once again devalue ruble. In any case, agriculture will be hit, since in the future the volume of support to farmers will be determined by the obligation to the WTO, and not by the needs of the industry and the country. And this commitment provides for next year a reduction in financial support for the sector, which should be a priority in the import substitution program. Well what can I say!

TRADE DISPUTES

When Russia joined the WTO, the Kremlin argued that membership would help us defend our interests in court, which, by the way, we note, is a costly procedure. To date, Russia is a party to four lawsuits against the EU and Ukraine:

In connection with the EU’s use of the “energy adjustment” methodology in anti-dumping investigations against Russian goods;

In connection with the European Third Energy Package, which obliges companies to separate the business of extracting and transporting energy resources, which does not suit Gazprom;

Due to a significant increase in the duty on the import of ammonium nitrate into the European Union and Ukraine from the Russian Federation;

In connection with the abolition of duties by the European Commission on the import of Ukrainian welded pipes and the introduction of duties for manufacturers from Russia, China and Belarus.

However, Russia itself became a defendant in four cases:

Lawsuit by the EU and Japan in response to the Russian recycling tax on cars introduced federal law September 1, 2012;

EU lawsuit over import duties on commercial vehicles introduced by the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) on May 14, 2013;

Claim by Ukraine in connection with restrictions on the supply of Ukrainian cars and switches.

Time will tell how the lawsuits will end, but at the moment Russia has already lost several cases in the framework of WTO trade disputes. In 2016, the WTO court recognized that Russia’s duties on the import of paper, refrigerators and palm oil do not implement its WTO obligations. As a result, Russia fully brought duties on some of these goods in accordance with its obligations.

The second loss was in relation to the EU lawsuit dated April 8, 2014, in which Russia was required to lift the ban on the import of pork, introduced in January 2014 by Rosselkhoznadzor due to the epidemic of African swine fever (ASF) discovered in Lithuania and other European countries. . The court found the ban to be inconsistent with WTO agreements.

Russian legislative law on the WTO is still very young. Russia does not have specialists of such a level to win disputes in the WTO. And no highly professional lawyer can overcome the moment of politicization of the structure. Therefore, in terms of trade disputes, the WTO for Russia is an institution of voluntary renunciation of its national interests without the opportunity to actually defend them.

RUSSIA AND SANCTIONS

Contrary to the Kremlin's hopes, the WTO did not protect the country from sanctions. The organization did not recognize these actions as illegal and did not impose restrictions on the EU. On the contrary, there was an attempt to consider the Russian food self-embargo as violating WTO norms. Thus, it did not receive the protection that Putin’s Russia had hoped for.

CONCLUSIONS

Has WTO membership harmed Russia over the past five years? It could have caused even more harm if devaluation and sanctions had not intervened, which dealt a blow to the domestic industrial sector under the WTO. However, already in 2018, agriculture will experience all the consequences of sabotage and accession to the WTO, when the state, within the framework of its obligations, will reduce assistance to farmers. Later, when the market gets used to the ruble exchange rate, and when all duties are brought to their fixed values, the domestic industry will experience increased external competition, especially against the background high stakes on loans. But if there were not as many disadvantages as there could have been, and only because decisions were made that were even more damaging to the economy, then have we achieved the advantages that the president, his team and experts spoke about?

Firstly, Russia has never defended its case in the WTO court, that is, protecting the national manufacturer through the courts has so far failed.

Secondly, the foreign investor did not come to Russia, but on the contrary, against the backdrop of sanctions and deterioration economic situation chose to reduce investments.

Thirdly, our product has really become more competitive. But this happened against the background of the devaluation of the ruble, which reduced its cost for a foreign buyer, but hit the population and critical import-dependent industries, including defense.

Fourthly, the promised increase in competition in financial market didn't happen. Lending rates, as experts predicted, have not decreased. On the contrary, the Central Bank increased interest rate, and now it is higher(!) than the level when Russia joined the WTO. Not to mention the fact that access to foreign lending has been closed for Russia over the past five years.

Fifthly, the WTO did not save Russia from restrictive measures. If in November 2012, 18 countries applied protective measures against Russian goods, and a total of 73 measures were in force, then as of August 1, 2015, the number of countries using restrictive measures against Russian goods increased to 27, and the number of measures taken - to 112 The number of ongoing investigations increased from 5 to 22.

Sixth, for Russians, imported products did not become cheaper due to the reduction in import duties, but on the contrary, they became more expensive due to devaluation. But, according to analysts, it was accession to the WTO that provoked an increase in domestic gas prices.

Seventh, with WTO membership the government has made life much more difficult, now trying to circumvent its obligations. For example, in order to limit imports in the automotive industry, the country's Ministry of Industry and Trade established rates recycling fee; for protection agricultural sector a ban was introduced on the import of live cattle and small ruminants from Europe; protective measures are applied against unscrupulous competitors and technical regulation measures in the chemical industry.

Eighth, the WTO did not ensure positive dynamics in export-import transactions (Fig. 3). However, this is the fault of devaluation and falling energy prices.

Rice. 3. Volumes of exports and imports of Russia, according to Rosstat

If membership in the WTO has not brought us any advantages, why continue to fulfill obligations to the organization and at the same time pay contributions in the amount of 4.6 million US dollars per year? But the primary question, of course, is why did we even need to move to the WTO with a resource-based economy? What were they counting on in the Kremlin? Did you count at all? And, in principle, are they able to calculate the consequences of their rule?

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