Population is a collection of people living within a certain territory: part of a country, an entire country, a group of countries, the entire globe.

Population characterized by absolute moment levels and period averages. As a result of population censuses, information about the population on a certain date is obtained. In the intervals between censuses, the population size is determined by calculation based on data on the natural and mechanical movement of the population.

Population as an object of study: scientific disciplines

The body of knowledge about the population is characterized by a system of concepts, categories, and laws. Population, its development and other characteristics are studied by the sciences of population, which primarily include: demographic statistics or population statistics - deals with the collection of empirical (primary) data on the population. demography, which is also often called “the science of population” or “the science of population reproduction”, deals with the analysis of these data, interpretation (explanation), construction of both mathematical and descriptive models and theories, both about the dynamics of the population as a whole, and and about its individual components and aspects. economics- in collaboration with economic demography, geography often studies the “labor potential of the population” - it studies the distribution of the population in the territory and certain aspects of its movement (migration), ethnography, as well as ethnology - together with ethnodemography, it studies the ethnic composition (structure) of the population. sociology - at the intersection with social demography, they study the social structure (or structures) of the population. medicine, as well as such branches as municipal and social hygiene - study the state of public health

Types and models of population: In demography, the following categories of population are distinguished:

Permanent population - ordinary population, the main category that unites the totality of people for whom a given territory is a place of usual residence in given time

Stable population is a theoretical model of a population with intensities of fertility, mortality and age structure that are constant over time.

Stationary population - theoretical population, special case stable population at true rate natural increase r = 0 and constant population size P(t) = P(0).

In population statistics (demostatistics), which collects empirical data and records the population, the following categories are also distinguished:

Current population is the part of the population that is located in a given locality at the time of registration, regardless of place of permanent residence.

Resident population is the part of the population that permanently resides in a given locality, regardless of its actual location at the time of registration.

Temporarily absent - persons who, at the time of registration, were temporarily absent from their place of permanent residence (for a period of no more than 6 months).

Temporarily present - persons who were temporarily in a given locality at the time of registration (for a period of no more than 6 months).

Indicators characterizing the population: numbers and dynamics. intensity of demographic processes: birth rate, mortality, natural increase, marriage rate, settlement, density, urbanization, migration, age-sex composition and family status, level of education, racial, linguistic, ethnic and religious composition, level of socio-economic development, standard of living.

Demographic explosion - ultra-high rates of population growth in a certain territory.

Features of the modern demographic explosion: developing countries are experiencing rapid population growth, significantly outpacing their socio-economic development, exacerbating the already complex problems of employment, social sphere, food supply, economy, etc.; power is significantly less than in the last century; a large-scale phenomenon.

The modern population explosion not only occurs in a large number of countries, directly affecting a significant part of the world population, but in essence, directly or indirectly affects everything global community, turning a local demographic problem into one of the global problems of our time.

DEMOGRAPHIC WINTER: a term used by scientists to refer to a period of population depopulation in some countries at the end of the 20th century. due to a sharp decline in the birth rate of people.

The implementation of a competent demographic policy in Belarus allows us to count on the fact that by 2015 it will be possible to ensure population growth in the country. This opinion was expressed to a BELTA correspondent by the Deputy Chairman of the Standing Committee of the House of Representatives on Health, Physical Culture, Family and Youth Affairs Svetlana Shilova, commenting on the main provisions of the draft program for the socio-economic development of Belarus for 2011-2015.

The deputy positively assessed the set of measures aimed at improving the demographic situation in the country, namely increasing the birth rate and average life expectancy and reducing mortality. She especially noted the fact that the Belarusian state pays great attention to issues of demographic security, rightly believing that the key to the successful development of any country are people - physically and morally healthy, intelligent, and proactive.

Among its goals for the future, Belarus sets itself the stabilization of the population at the level of 9.4 million people by 2015. However, according to the deputy, we should be more ambitious and strive for more: not only to stabilize the number, but also to increase it. The set of measures that the state is taking to improve the demographic situation suggests that the country is capable of “taking a higher bar,” the parliamentarian is sure.

Svetlana Shilova considers one of the key tasks in the country’s demographic policy to be increasing the authority of the family and providing all possible support for this social institution. Much has already been done in this direction. One of the latest examples is the exclusion of those who are divorced from the queue of those in need of housing. At the same time, when starting a family, they provide benefits and state assistance for the purchase of housing. The deputy emphasized that a person’s lifestyle and health directly depend on family upbringing.

Recently, much attention in Belarus has been paid to pediatric care and support for motherhood and childhood. This has borne fruit: it has been possible to achieve European maternal and infant mortality rates. Now it's time to concentrate on other areas of medicine.

Number and reproduction population

Lesson plan:

• Current state of numbers
• Features of population reproduction
• Population policy
• Population quality

Related concepts:

8th, 9th grade With

Grade 10

Demography

Mortality

Fertility

Natural increase

Depopulation

Population reproduction

Type of reproduction

Population explosion"

Demographic “spring”

Demographic “winter”

"The Aging of a Nation"

Population policy

Phases of demographic transition

Increase in number by 1 billion

Year

Population, billion people

Time to achieve billions of growth (years)

All previous history

World population growth 1950-2000:

Population,

million people

Annual growth, million people

Exercise.

Analysis of table 2 in the textbook (unit 4, p. 56)

Which regions have growth rates higher than the world average?

Share of developed and developing countries in the world population

Conclusion. 90% of all world population growth occurs in developing countries and their share of the world population continues to increase.

Average annual population growth

• 1970s (average annual growth - 2%, or 20 people per 1000 inhabitants),
• in 1980 it was 1.8%;
• in 1985-1990 - 1.7%;
• in the first half of the 1990s - 1.6%;
• in 1995 - 1.5%.

World population (2007)

A country

China

Population

(thousand people)

1 321 851,9

India

Part of the world

Asia

1 129 866,2

Indonesia

Asia

301 139,9

North America

Brazil

234 694,0

Asia

190 010,6

Pakistan

South America

Bangladesh

164 741,9

Russian Federation

Asia

150 448,3

Asia

Nigeria

141 377,8

Japan

135 031,2

Europe

Africa

127 433,5

Asia

Leader change forecast countries by population by 2050:

1. India – 1,572,055,000.

2. China – 1,462,058,000.

3. USA – 397,063,000.

4. Pakistan – 344,170,000.

5. Indonesia - 311,335,000.

6. Nigeria - 278,788,000.

7. Bangladesh - 265,432,000.

8. Brazil - 247,244,000.

9. Congo - 203,527,000.

10. Ethiopia – 186,452.

Reproduction

Fertility

Mortality

Natural increase

Positive

Negative

Demographic situation

Factors affecting fertility

Natural-biological

Demographic

Socio-economic

1 Marriage rate, divorce rate, marital status;

2. Different times of reaching puberty in countries with hot and cold climates;

3. Infant mortality rate;

4. Sex structure of the population;

5. Level of urbanization;

6. Age structure;

7. General level of well-being;

8. Level of education.

Factors influencing fertility

Natural-biological

Demographic

Socio-economic

1, 3 , 5, 7, 8

… and minimum fertility rates

… and minimum mortality rates

Population reproduction

EXERCISE. List 5 countries with the highest and lowest rates of natural population growth

Parents Type I Type I Type II Type “Aging of the Nation” “Rejuvenation of the Nation” Depopulation Demographic Explosion “Demographic Winter” “Demographic Spring” " width="640"

Types of reproduction

Narrowed Simple Advanced

Children Parents Children = Parents Children Parents

I type I type II type

"The Aging of a Nation" "Rejuvenation of the Nation"

Depopulation Population explosion

"Demographic winter" "Demographic spring"

Comparison

types of population reproduction

Comparable Traits

First type

reproduction

1. Birth rate

Second type

reproduction

2. Mortality rate

3 Level of natural increase

4. “Formula for reproduction” of the population

5. In which countries are they distributed?

5. Share of children

7. Proportion of elderly people

8. What is demographic policy aimed at?

Demographic policy –

This is a system of administrative, economic, propaganda and other activities with the help of which the state influences the natural movement of the population (primarily the birth rate) in the direction it desires.

Population policy aimed at:

Demographic policy in countries of the first type of reproduction is aimed at increasing the birth rate.

Examples of countries conducting active demographic policy, can serve as France or Japan, which have developed such stimulating economic measures as:

a) one-time loans to newlyweds;

b) benefits at the birth of each child;

V) monthly benefits for children,

d) paid holidays, etc.

Demographic policy in countries of the second type of reproduction is aimed at reducing the birth rate.

Examples of countries include China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Latin America and North Africa.

Family planning programs,

legislative increase in the age of marriage,

promoting the benefits of a small family, stimulating small families through various economic and administrative measures.

Population policy Example 1.

In France a broad system was introduced cash payments families, aimed at encouraging the birth of the first, second and especially third child.

The birth of a third and fourth child is actively encouraged here, one-time benefits for the birth of a child are provided in the amount of 260% of the basic salary for the first and 717% for each subsequent child, maternity leave is paid in the amount of 90% of the salary. Loans for starting a household and housing benefits are provided, 90% of which are repaid upon the birth of the fourth child. The socio-demographic policy of France has become a kind of standard in the Western world. The governments of Great Britain, Austria, Italy, Sweden and other European countries are following this path.

Population policy Example 2.

In China:

a) a birth planning committee has been created;

b) a late age for marriage has been established: men - 22 years, women - 20 years;

c) the state pays extra monthly for one child in the family;

d) political motto: “One family - one child”

Demographic transition

• Stage 1: high birth and death rates
• Stage 2: high birth rate and reduction in mortality (demographic explosion)
• Stage 3: low birth rate and low death rate
• 4 stage: mortality exceeds birth rate (depopulation)

Countries - leaders and outsiders

by life expectancy

A country

Maximum

indicators

Andorra

San Marino

A country

Sierra Leone

Minimum

indicators

Japan

Australia

Guinea-Bissau

Sweden, Switzerland

Rwanda

Uganda

Canada, Iceland

Malawi

Afghanistan, Guinea

How do you think…

• 1. What is the reason for the stabilization of the population in developed countries ah Europe?
• What is “zero population growth”?
• Do you think demographic policy leads to the infringement of human rights?

Homework:

• With. 51-60 textbook

Conduct a sociological study in your families, find out how many children your grandmother, great-grandmother, great-great-grandmother had.

Construct a graph illustrating the change in the number of children in a family.

Analyze it and draw conclusions.

Identify the reasons for the change in the number of children in the family.

On September 2, 2014, Masha Gessen, an advocate for the rights of sexual minorities, published an article in the reference publication New York Review of Books (NYR) with the provocative title “The Dying Russians”, illustrated with a gloomy winter photograph taken in 1997 at the train station of a small a town southwest of Moscow, Aprelevka, where the backs of people bending over the rails are visible. Apart from this very negatively oriented photo, the reasoning in the article is so monstrously biased in an effort to denigrate Putin's policies that it demonstrates how liberal opponents of the current Russian authorities there is a lack of arguments and ideas. In an attempt to counter Russia's resurgence, some Western demographic experts are forced to simply lie.

Demographic decline of the 90s

In the period from 1991 to 1999, the birth rate in Russia decreased, while at the same time the mortality rate increased sharply, which led to a significant decrease in the country's population, by almost 1 million people per year. Russia was then in the hands of elites who decided to lead the country to collapse, which was presented as an economic transition period, which no one controlled, at least within Russia. During this period, there was an unprecedented decline in population, surpassing even that of the country during the war. This demographic collapse looked hopeless, and Russia seemed doomed to extinction.

In 2000, after Putin came to power, the birth rate began to rise, after falling to a very low level of 8.3 per thousand in 1999. Since then, the birth rate has not stopped growing.

Table of Russian demographic indicators from 1990 to 2013
	Born			Fertility rate (1)	Total fertility rate (2)
Source: Rosstat
(1) Fertility rate - the number of births per year per 1,000 inhabitants.
(2) Fertility rate - the ratio between the number of live births during the year and the number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years).

Since 2005, the demographic situation in Russia has begun to improve. After five years of the new government, the increase in living standards becomes noticeable. The return of the authority of the state allows government agencies work better, especially in the field of medicine, which suffered in the 90s, which led to a stabilization of the total number of deaths. All this helps restore trust Russian families. Also in 2005, demographic government measures came into force aimed at financial support for families, in particular, with the help of maternity capital, which families could use three years after the birth of their second child, that is, since 2008.

In 2008 it broke out financial crisis on a global scale, but it had no impact on Russian demographics, as parents began receiving maternal capital. In addition, the number of women aged 18-29 reached its historical peak at that time. They produce three quarters of babies. In general, the birth rate continues to rise, while the death rate begins to decline sharply. World economic crisis, therefore, did not become an obstacle to the continued growth of the birth rate in Russia, which confirmed the positive trends in the country.

In 2012, for the first time since 1991, there was zero population growth, a symbol of population stability. And in 2013 the population grew by about 23,000 people.

After bottoming out at less than 1.2 in the late 1990s, the Russian fertility rate rose to 1.7 in 2012, which remains low but still above the EU average of 1.6, about the same as in Denmark or Holland. The claim that the Russian coefficient is “one of the lowest in the world,” as Masha Gessen makes in her article, is a fiction. This sad privilege is reserved, alas, for countries such as Singapore (0.8), Taiwan (1.1), South Korea, Bosnia, Ukraine, Poland, Slovenia (1.3) or Germany (1.4).

Since the beginning of 2014, this positive trend has continued and even intensified. Thus, during the first seven months of 2014, Russian women gave birth to 18,729 more children than during the same period in 2013: a total of 1,120,000 births against 1,100,000 births a year earlier, that is, 1.7% more. At the same time, the country registered 8,890 fewer deaths, 1.2 million compared to 1.13 million in 2013, that is, 0.8% less. The demographic balance improved by 27,619 in seven months. In 2014, natural population growth should be about 40,000 people.

What is the population in Russia in 2030?

Certainly, demographic crisis in Russia has not been resolved: the decline in fertility in 1995-2005 will inevitably be felt when these age groups reach reproductive age. Since, on average, a Russian woman gives birth to her first child at about 30 years of age, we should expect to see a decline in the birth rate between 2025 and 2035.

This logical decline in fertility over the next ten years should, however, be accompanied by a reduction in mortality, as life expectancy has increased significantly (to 64 years in 2003 and to 71 in 2013). Thus, the population should naturally stabilize and age.

For Russia, the solution is migration: it is the key to economic development the country, therefore, to its survival. Over the past ten years, migration has remained low, between 250,000 and 300,000 new residents annually. According to the most panicky Russian experts, to successfully solve the problem of labor shortage, 600,000 people are needed annually for twenty years.

150 million Russians in 2030?

For ten years, forecasters, including specialists from Rosstat, have been very pessimistic about the evolution of the Russian population. Thus, between 2006 and 2008, three institutions made their forecasts: Rosstat, HSE and the UN. The two most optimistic, Rosstat and HSE, envisaged a population reduction of 500,000 in 2013, and the most pessimistic, the United Nations, to -750,000 people. But in the end, the balance turned out to be zero.

Another example of widespread pessimism: in the medium-term forecast of Rosstat, published in 2011 (based on the results of 2010), the pessimistic scenario predicted 128 million population in 2030, and the optimistic one 150 million. And for this optimistic scenario to be realized, the population of Russia had to reach 143 million by the beginning of 2015. However, today, in 2014, we note that the 143 million population threshold was reached back in January 2012, three years before the target date.

The population decline that would theoretically occur in Russia over the next decade may be much lower than expected. It can even be assumed that the population of Russia will increase significantly by 2030. This suggests that Russia's demographic future is much calmer than the NyBooks article suggests, and makes plausible estimates that the Russian population will reach the symbolic threshold of 150 million people by 2030.

The demographics of Russia's western neighbors are in decline

To conclude this brief overview of Russian demography, it is interesting to compare it with the demography of its closest neighbors to the west, former members Soviet bloc: Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Ukraine. We see Russia recovering while others continue to decline, especially Latvia and Lithuania.

(Too) well-trained propaganda of neoliberal activists

In words and writings, Western pundits (the same ones in much of the media mainstream) constantly return to the idea of ​​a Russian demographic catastrophe, which could indicate a failure of the Kremlin. It became an obsessive obsession, with a complete denial of what happened after 1999, when Putin came to power. The media made its first salvo in the summer of 2011, constantly repeating that “every fifth Russian would like to leave Russia (...) That according to official data from 2008 to 2011, about 1.2 million people left Russia (...) And that these results prove the inconsistency of the Kremlin’s patriotic slogans and ambitious projects.” But because the manipulation was so obvious and the claims were based on false figures, this media attack ended in failure.

And now, three years later, Masha Gessen pulls out of the closet the worn-out myth about the dying Russian people in order to hammer it even more into the heads of a Western audience that is already fairly misinformed. The journalist states that Russia allegedly suffers from low birth rates, as is the case in the West, and high mortality, as in African countries. However, one only has to dive into the numbers, as we just did, to see a striking Russian demographic renewal since the early 2000s that contradicts the claims of Masha Gessen and most Western demographers.

It's hard not to link this demographic growth to financial support measures put in place by President Vladimir Putin to encourage families to have more children. This effective and conscious policy aimed at supporting the traditional family and fertility gave the Russian population the desire, courage, but also, and especially, the means to have children.

Alexander Latsa for vineyardsaker.fr

Notes:
Maria Aleksandrovna Gessen, known under the name "Masha Gessen", is a journalist and writer with Russian and American citizenship. She defends the rights of sexual minorities, fights against the law prohibiting the propaganda of homosexuality among minors and, in general, against the current Russian political situation.
Article by Masha Gessen The Dying Russians, (nybooks.com, in English, 09/02/2014).
Le défi démographique russe, (geoconfluences.ens-lyon.fr, in French, 27-09-2007).
Taux de fertilité comparée des différents pays, (cia.gov, in English).
Demography, Russian demographic statistics (gks.ru, in Russian, 2014).
La Russie aura besoin de 12 millions d’immigrés sur 20 ans, fr.ria.ru, in French, 03/24/2010).
CHANGES IN POPULATION ACCORDING TO FORECAST OPTIONS for 2015 – 2031, (gks.ru, in Russian, 08/26/2014).
.

Accommodation

The population of any country and the planet as a whole act as the leading productive force and the main final consumer of economic products.

Population is the most important independent object of study of socio-economic geography. The main aspects are:

population size and distribution;

national and religious composition;

natural population movement;

mechanical movement of the population;

labor resources.

At the same time, all of the above aspects of population study are one of the main factors in the location of the world economy.

In 1999, the UN solemnly celebrated the birth of the planet's six billionth inhabitant. Symbolically, he chose a child in the hot spot of the planet, the capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina - Sarajevo. Considering that the annual absolute increase Since the Earth's population at the beginning of the 21st century approached the hundred million mark, in 2005 there were about 6.5 billion people living on our planet. Figure 23 graphically shows the dynamics of global population growth over the last century, presented in Table 12.

Table 12.

Year	Population size, In million	Absolute natural increase in 10 years, In million	Relative natural increase over 10 years, in%
1900	1656
1910	1726
1920	1811
1930	2000		10,4
1940	2230		11,5
1950	2530		13,4
1960	3060		20,9
1970	3700		20,9
1980	4420		19,8
1990	5290		19,7
2000	6100		15,3
2010	6800		11,4
	(forecast)

Rice. 23. Dynamics of growth of the Earth's population in the twentieth century.

It can be seen that the doubling of the population in the second half of the twentieth century occurred in 40 years. Although the world's relative population growth rates are falling, absolute growth remains very high.

When analyzing the distribution of the population on the territory of the ecumene (inhabited land), it is customary to use the concept population density , which is expressed as the number of inhabitants per 1 km². The average population density of the Earth is now about 50 people per 1 km².

V.G. Glushkova cites calculations by ecologist Yu. Odum that for comfortable living, each person on average requires 2 hectares of territory, including 0.2 hectares for living, 0.6 hectares for agricultural land, 1.2 hectares for recreational purposes and to maintain the ecological balance of the biosphere. Thus, the current population of the planet is close to its optimum. Of course, these numbers cannot be taken absolutely, but there is something to think about! In fact, the population density on the planet depends on many factors, both natural and socio-economic. Among natural things, this is, first of all, comfort natural conditions for living and the availability of natural resources. Initially, during the period of gathering and hunting, each person should have had at least several square kilometers. And now the areas of the world where the population is predominantly engaged in this type of activity have a very low population density, both in the absence of modern means of hunting (Amazonia, Equatorial Africa) and in their presence (taiga and tundra of the northern hemisphere). With this kind of farming, dispersed settlement with temporary settlements and a nomadic way of life is most optimal. The population of the Earth may amount to only millions or tens of millions of people. With extensive management Agriculture, when workers could practically feed only themselves and their families, the maximum population density should be 20-30 people per 1 km² on agricultural land. As agricultural intensification increased, so did population density, mainly on artificially irrigated lands. That is why such areas of the world are still among the most densely populated: about. Java, the valleys of the Nile, Yangtze, Brahmaputra, Ganges, here the population density can exceed 1000 people/km². Increased industrialization, along with increased rural productivity, led to intensive urbanization. Urbanized areas have the highest population density (up to tens of thousands per 1 km²), but most often population density is associated with the territory of the country. There are also very large contrasts here (see Table 13).

In Russia, there are two zones of settlement - continuous and focal. Solid zone , or the main settlement zone, occupies 1/3 of the territory, and more than 93% of the Russian population lives here. It occupies about 2/3 of the European part of the state and a narrow southern strip of Siberia and the Far East, stretching along the Trans-Siberian Railway. The settled population of agrarian Russia during the formation of the Russian state concentrated in territories with relatively favorable agroclimatic and soil resources for farming.

Table 13.

Indicators of population density and reproduction

in the ten largest countries by population in the world in 2004

A country	Population, in million people	Territo- riya, in thousand km²	Average density population	Per 1000 people		Natural growth	Life expectancy
				Fertility	Mortality		husband.	wives
China	1354	9561
India	1106	3288
USA		9364
Indonesia		1919
Brazil		8512
Pakistan
Russia	12,8	17075		10,2	16,4
Nigeria
Bangla Desh
Japan
The world at large	6500

Therefore, the northern border of the strip continuous settlement almost exactly coincides with the distribution of soddy-podzolic soils of mixed forests. To the north of this border, centers of settlement arose along rivers, along the shores of seas, and near large mineral deposits. Examples include Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Apatity, Kotlas, Vorkuta, Norilsk, etc. These are hotbeds for the use of forest, marine and mineral resources. With the background population density of these territories being less than 1 person. per 1 km², average density, thanks to such outbreaks, is higher than this figure. For example:

Arkhangelsk region – 2.6 people/km²;

Komi Republic – 2.9 people/km²;

Tyumen region– 2.2 people/km²;

Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug – 2.5 people/km².

The minimum population density in Russia is in the Evenki Autonomous Okrug, where 20 thousand people live on an area of ​​768 thousand km², i.e. the average density is approximately 0.03 people/km².

In the main settlement zone, the highest density is in the Moscow region - 325 people/km².

National and religious composition of the population

There are several thousand nationalities in the world, and an accurate count of them is almost impossible. Large nationalities can number more than 100 million people, while there are also very small ones (less than 1 thousand).

The basis for systematizing nationalities (ethnicities) is language. Similarity of language indicates commonality"proto-language"

, i.e. ancient language. For example, the languages ​​of the Romance peoples (French, Spanish, Italians) are based on the language of the Roman Empire - Latin. The largest associations of ethnic groups are language families, which are divided into language groups. Belonging to the same language family can often only be determined by specialists based on careful analysis, for example, the commonality of Hindi, Russian and Portuguese. The commonality of languages ​​of one language group is often striking even to a non-specialist, for example: Russian, Belarusian, Polish, Ukrainian. There are several large language families in the world whose languages ​​are spoken by the majority of the population of our planet:

Indo-European family (almost half of the world's population), groups: Romanesque (Italians, Spaniards, Portuguese, French, Romanians, etc.), Germanic (Germans, English, Swedes, etc.), Slavic (Russians, Ukrainians, Poles, Serbs, Bulgarians, Czechs, etc.), Indo-Aryan (peoples of India), Iranian (Tajiks, Iranians, Kurds, etc.) and smaller groups. Among the largest families are: Tibetan-Chinese (peoples of China), Semitic-Hamitic (black Africa), Altai (Turks, Uzbeks, Turkmens, etc.).

Russia is a multinational country and, although more than 80% of the population is Russian, dozens of peoples who are the indigenous population of Russian territory live in our state.

Indo-European family

Slavic group

(Russians, Ukrainians, Belarusians)

Iranian group

(Ossetians, Tajiks)

German group

Armenian group

Roman group

(Moldavians)

Altai family

Turkic group

(Tatars, Chuvashs, Bashkirs, Kazakhs, Karachais,

Balkars, Altaians, Tuvans, Yakuts,

Nogais, Kumyks, etc.)

Mongolian group

(Buryats, Kalmyks)

Tungus-Manchu group

(Evenks, Evens, Nanais, Udeges, etc.)

Ural family

Finno-Ugric group

(Mordovians, Mari, Udmurts, Komi,

Karelians, Estonians, Khanty, Mansi, etc.)

Samoyed group

(Nenets, Selkups, etc.)

North Caucasian family

Adygo-Abkhaz group

(Adygs, Kabardians, Circassians)

Nakh group

(Chechens, Ingush)

Dagestan group

(Lezgins, Avars, Dargins, etc.)

In addition to these relatively large language families, there are many small nations whose language is difficult to attribute to any group or family, i.e.

one language is itself an isolated language family.

There are 3 world religions in the world that have many adherents among many countries and peoples. World religions are heterogeneous, have gone through a long period of development, and various directions and currents have historically emerged in them. The religious composition of the world's population has some correlation with the national composition, and in the political life of society, belonging to a particular confession (religion) often plays a more significant role than nationality. A striking example of this was given by the former Yugoslavia, where a hot spot in relations between Croats (Catholics), Serbs (Orthodox) and Bosnians (Muslims) is still smoldering, although formally all can be considered one people speaking the same language. Christianity

is the largest world religion in terms of number of believers. - a monocentric direction of Christianity led by the Pope. Covers mainly countries where the population speaks Romance languages, i.e. The main distribution area is southern Europe and Latin America, although there are many Catholics in other areas of the world. The largest Catholic country is Brazil.

Protestantism itself has many movements (Calvinism, Lutheranism, Baptistism, Anglicanism, etc.) and is widespread among peoples speaking languages ​​of the Germanic group. The main area of ​​Protestantism is Northern Europe and North America, with the largest number of Protestants in the United States.

Orthodoxy distributed mainly among the peoples of the Slavic group (Russians, Ukrainians, Bulgarians, Serbs, etc.). There is no complete correlation between the national and religious composition, for example, the Slavic Poles are Catholics, and the representatives of the Romance peoples, the Romanians, are Orthodox.

The largest Orthodox country is Russia. The second world religion is Islam , which arose in the 7th century among the Arabs. The main area of ​​spread of Islam is southern and western foreign Asia and North Africa. Largest countries Islam are Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh. The two largest directions of Islam are represented by Sunni Muslims and Shiite Muslims; in most countries Sunnis predominate, however, in some (Iran, Iraq) the majority are Shiites, there are other relatively few movements, in particular Wahhabism

, which can be extremely radical. The third world religion is Buddhism

, which arose in the 6th century BC. in India, but most widespread in Southeast Asia (Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos, etc.). There are many followers of Buddhism in China and Japan. In addition to the three world religions, there are major national religions, whose adherents are widespread in one country or among one nationality. The most representative of them: Hinduism(India), Confucianism And Taoism(China), Shintoism(Japan),

Judaism

(among Jews). Among the tribes of Africa, America, the Pacific Islands, and the far north of Russia, local pagan religions (totemism, fetishism, shamanism, etc.) are widespread.

Demographic situation

Term "demography" literally translates as folk description and is the name of a science that studies the natural and mechanical movement of the population, its age and sex composition. Demographic situation - this is the ratio of birth rate, death rate and migration mobility that has developed in a given area, creating at a given time a certain age-sex structure of the population and the dynamics of its number. The basic demographic formula is the population reproduction formula:

Fertility - mortality = natural increase

The units of measurement in this formula are ppm per year, i.e. birth rate is the number of live births per year per 1000 population, mortality is the number of deaths per 1000 population. Population reproduction can be simple, i.e. the number remains at the same level, and, accordingly, narrowed or expanded. Natural increase with a minus sign is called .

natural decline

However, this formula alone does not give a complete picture of the natural movement of the population, since the actual picture is distorted due to the age composition of the population. Increasing the age of average life expectancy leads to a reduction in mortality. Infant mortality, celibacy, absence of children, etc. are the reason that for simple reproduction, one hundred pairs of parents must have 260 children. In this case, important calculation coefficients are total fertility rate – the average number of children one woman has during her life and net replacement rate – the average number of girls born from one woman and surviving to reproductive (fertile) age. The values ​​of these coefficients 2.1 and 1.1 mean simple reproduction of the population. Almost all highly developed countries, often having even a small natural increase, currently have a narrowed reproduction of generations. Behind last years

this is typical even for countries in Southern Europe that have strong Catholic traditions.

In the world as a whole, the total fertility rate is about 3.3, and the net replacement rate is approximately 1.6.

With an average life expectancy of 65 years and long-term stabilization of the demographic situation, the birth and death rates should be approximately 15.5 ‰ per year. A decrease in the population of any territory due to a set of reasons in general (not necessarily related to natural decline) is called .

There are two types of population reproduction:

Type I – demographic winter - typical for economically highly developed countries in general, as well as for the post-Soviet space.

It is characterized by low birth and death rates, close to 0 natural increase, and for some countries, natural population decline. Type II reproduction is called. demographic spring

It is characteristic of Africa, Asia and Latin America, and is characterized by high birth rates and relatively low mortality rates. Relatively low mortality is now characteristic of almost the entire world, and this is due, first of all, to the great successes of medicine in the fight against epidemics and child mortality. The high birth rate in developing countries is largely due to national and religious traditions and the lack of family planning opportunities. The birth of children here occurs according to the principle “as much as God gives, so many are born.” In general, for states with a demographic winter

average formula population reproduction is 13 – 10 = 3, and the maximum values ​​of natural increase are below 12 ppm per year. For states with a demographic spring, the average formula is 28 – 9 = 19; and minimum values ​​exceed 12 ppm per year. For many countries of the second type of reproduction, the birth rate and natural increase are so high that they are called

"population explosion"

. To the greatest extent, the “demographic explosion” is now characteristic of Africa, where several countries have a birth rate of more than 50 ppm per year: Tanzania, Mali, Uganda, Burkina Faso, Niger, etc. For Niger, for example, the reproduction formula is 58 – 23 = 35, those. the population doubles every 16-17 years.

The sex and age composition of the population of any country is well illustrated by sex and age pyramids (Fig. 24, 25).

Fig.24. Sex and age pyramid in Russia, according to the 2002 population census. Fig.25. Typical sex and age pyramids:

a – for countries I type of reproduction;

In general, it is natural for humanity that several percent more boys are born than girls, but by the age of 25-30 their number equalizes and then women predominate in all age groups, the average life expectancy among women is usually higher than that of men by 6 -7 years. Omitting the reasons for this phenomenon, we note that for some countries this pattern is violated. This usually indicates the inequality of women in society (see table 13). By the way, the figures given for Russia also require very close attention.

For age pyramid Developed countries with type I reproduction are characterized by a slow decrease in the number of population in age groups with increasing age. Type II reproduction is characterized by a rapid decrease in the population size in age groups with increasing age. Rice. 24.

In practice, in the vast majority of countries, for one reason or another, the demographic situation is not optimal. To correct it, states are pursuing a certain demographic policy. Population policy is a system of government measures aimed at changing natural growth. Measures can be very different: administrative, economic, propaganda, etc.

Typically, demographic policy is aimed at changing the birth rate, although history knows other examples. An example of the effectiveness of demographic policy

Table 14. Age composition of the world population for countries with different types

reproduction	Countries
	Share in % of the total population	Children under 14 years old	Adults 15-59 years old Elderly
over 60 years old Countries with I
type of reproduction (“demographic winter”) Countries from II
The world at large

type of reproduction (“demographic spring”) serves as a change in the demographic situation in China at the end of the twentieth century, when the slogan “one family - one child,” supported by economic and other measures, led to the fact that China has a natural increase below the world average. .

Unfortunately, there are few such examples, and the rapid growth of the planet's population has led to a situation called

"global demographic problem"

The solution to the demographic problem is associated with the implementation of an active demographic policy, which should be associated, first of all, with economic measures to influence changes in the birth rate. This is practically impossible in poor, backward countries. Many demographers link the solution to the demographic problem with general socio-economic development in poor countries, which is reflected in theories of demographic transition . According to this theory, fertility and mortality are largely a function of the socio-economic status of the population in the country. An improvement in the socio-economic situation leads to a reduction in both mortality and fertility and leads to a gradual transition of the country from "demographic spring" To "demographic winter". The theory is well illustrated in Fig. 26.

Fig.26. Chart of demographic transition.

I period historical time covers the entire period of human development almost until the end of the medieval period and in the most developed countries ended by the 17th - 18th centuries, while for some tribes of the Amazon or New Guinea it continues today. The birth rate during this period is high and is limited only by the physiological capabilities of the mother. Mortality is also very high, especially among children. Life expectancy is low, often just over 20 years. There is a very slow growth in the world population as a whole, because... a high birth rate is still somewhat higher than a high death rate, although there may be exceptions.

II period associated mainly with advances in medicine, hygiene and sanitation, which leads to a decrease in mortality and an increase in life expectancy. The decisive fight against epidemics of plague, smallpox, cholera, etc., the possibility of performing surgical operations for diseases that previously led to death (for example, appendicitis), led to rapid population growth due to an increase in natural growth. After all, the birth rate at the second stage remains high, since the formula “as many children as God gives, so many are born” still applies.

III period characterized by a stabilization of mortality at a relatively low level, an increase in average life expectancy and a fall in the birth rate. Natural growth tends to decrease. The decline in the birth rate is due to a number of reasons, the main ones being:

The growth of a woman’s social status, when she turns from almost exclusively a wife and mother into an active participant public life. The right to vote, the opportunity to receive an education, to occupy previously unavailable positions, to serve in the army, etc. lead to an increase in the age of marriage, economic independence, etc., which, in turn, affects the birth rate.

Improving the social status of the elderly, who become economically independent from children, but in the first two stages children meant a relatively prosperous old age.

Urbanization, or the growth of the urban population, where children, with rare exceptions, are completely dependent on their parents, while in the village there is a lot of work that children are able to do.

The most important reason is the possibility of family planning. Advances in medicine and pharmacology have led to the fact that the old principle “as many children as God gives, so many are born” has become a thing of the past and the number of children in a family is regulated by parents.

IV stage The demographic transition is characterized by a “demographic winter”, when the birth rate and mortality rate stabilize at a low level, up to a state of natural population decline.

Almost all economically highly developed countries, many countries with a transition type of economy are in the fourth stage of the demographic transition, while the world as a whole, due to the majority of developing countries, is at the beginning of the third period. This is well illustrated in Fig. 23, which shows that the peak of natural increase occurred in the eighties and nineties of the twentieth century. This, by the way, was supported by the achievements of agriculture; it was during these years that the peak of grain production per capita in the world fell, which is discussed in the corresponding section.

Of course, the fertility and mortality graphs in Fig. 26 schematically reflect only the fundamental aspects of the theory of demographic transition. Real graphs are far from this scheme, but in general experimentally confirm the fundamental aspects of the theory. This is especially clearly seen in the example of relatively isolated states, where migrations did not have a significant impact on the dynamics of demographic processes. These are island or peninsular single-national countries that have gone through all stages of demographic transition, such as Japan, England, Iceland, Sweden, Denmark, etc.

Experts' forecasts agree that the world as a whole will approach the fourth stage of the demographic transition in the second half of the new century, when most developing countries will approach the current state of highly developed countries in their socio-economic development. The world population will stabilize at 10-13 billion people.

The demographic situation in Russia can be called catastrophic. It is urgently necessary to pursue an active demographic policy, first of all, explanatory and economic plan

aimed at increasing the birth rate, reducing mortality and overcoming the state of natural population decline.

Population migrations and urbanization Migrations

is the movement of population across a territory. They can be between individual settlements (for example, a village - a city), between territories within a state and between states. Migrations can be temporary (for example, a trip to seasonal work, on vacation) or permanent. There are internal migrations (within the country) and external ones.

Among external migrations, a distinction is made between immigration (entering the country) and emigration (leaving the country). Immigration and emigration do not include tourist trips. Any migration of the population occurs for a number of reasons: economic, social, environmental, political, etc. Currently, the incentives for migration are supported through the UN by the human right to choose the territory of residence. Migration has a long history and was associated with the development of land, military seizures of territories, acquisition of colonies, etc. Currently, labor migration is most widespread for economic reasons. Migration is facilitated by differences in wages, unemployment and labor shortages. If in the recent past the bulk of migrants were people of working professions, and it was called "labor drain". Migration activity is usually carried out by the most energetic part of the working age population. Migration flows have a huge impact on the state of the labor market both in donor countries and in countries receiving migrants, therefore, migration legislation in them pays great attention. Laws either promote or restrict migration, resulting in legal and illegal migrants.

The ratio of immigration and emigration is called balance of migrations , it will be positive if the entry exceeds the exit, and negative if the exit exceeds the entry.

At different historical times, countries and regions were characterized by a certain balance of migration. Currently, there are areas in the world with relatively stable types of migration balances. Thus, positive migration balances are typical for the countries of Northern Europe, the USA, countries of settler capitalism, many oil-producing countries, and in South America for Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela. Most developing countries, and among them all the most backward countries, are characterized by negative migration balances. Recently, synonyms for these concepts have been found in the literature: countries of “net immigration” and countries of “net emigration”. In the last 10-15 years, Russia and the countries of Southern Europe have become stable countries of “net immigration”: Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece.

Apart from purely economic reasons, under the influence of historical, linguistic, religious and other factors, interstate migration flows were formed. Thus, many former metropolitan countries receive the bulk of emigrants from their former colonies:

Great Britain - India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, etc.;

France - Algeria, Senegal, Morocco, etc.;

Netherlands - Indonesia, Suriname, etc.;

Portugal – Mozambique, Angola;

Belgium - Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Latin American migrant flows are usually limited to their region, the United States and Canada. In Arab oil-producing countries, the bulk of migrants are residents of Asian and African Islamic countries.

The main flows of migrants to Russia are sent from the former republics of the USSR. Interstate population migrations have a number of both positive and negative aspects for both donor countries and countries receiving migrants, but still the countries clearly benefit greatly:

"net immigration"

it becomes possible to fill jobs that are not popular (hard manual labor, etc.);

taxes and other income from immigrants are spent on the needs of the resident population.

The profit received from the use of foreign labor and the influx of specialists in highly developed countries is measured in tens of billions of dollars and more than covers the volume of assistance to developing countries by many times. At the same time, there are also negative positions for host countries, which mainly consist of the import of crime, terrorism, and increased social tension in society.

There are also positive aspects for migration donor countries:

foreign exchange earnings in the form money transfers emigrants;

those who return to their country often have savings for entrepreneurial activity;

returning migrants have improved their skills and mastered new technologies.

But all this, of course, does not compensate for the damage to the scientific, technical and intellectual potential of countries "net emigration".

In addition to the economic aspects of life, migrants in some cases have a very large impact on the demographic situation. Thus, in the nineties in Russia, the natural population decline was largely compensated by immigration. In countries of settler capitalism, the bulk of the population are descendants of immigrants and immigrants. In the oil-producing countries of the Persian Gulf, more than half, and sometimes up to 90%, of economic active population are made up of immigrants.

At the same time, a number of countries (Ireland, Greece, Portugal) during certain historical periods underwent depopulation due to very high emigration from the country. Emigration was the reason for the emergence of large national groups outside the country, often preserving their language, traditions, and culture. Such national groups are called diaspora .

Many diasporas have a very large weight in the political and economic life of their host countries and have a strong influence on the domestic and foreign policy of the state, often with a protectionist bias for their former homeland. So strong are the positions of the Chinese and Japanese diasporas in the countries of Southeast Asia, and the Jewish diaspora in the USA and Western European countries. The reasonable activities of the leaders of such diasporas contribute to the strengthening of political, economic, cultural and other ties between countries. For a country like Russia, these problems are quite acute, since, on the one hand, in many countries of the world there are diasporas of immigrants from Russia, on the other hand, the Armenian, Jewish, German, Turkish, Finnish, Moldavian communities are quite strong in Russia. and other diasporas. Urbanization

is the growth of urban population, accompanied by the growth of cities and urban lifestyles. The level of urbanization is expressed as a percentage of the urban population to the total population. How to calculate urban population ? These are city dwellers. There is no common understanding of the concept in the world"city"

, however, in the vast majority of countries, settlements with non-agricultural functions acquire city status, i.e. The majority of the population has incomes not related to agriculture.

On average, global urbanization was expected to cross the 50% mark in the early years of the 21st century. The rate of urbanization is highest in developing countries, although they have the lowest levels of urbanization. In general, the level of urbanization of less than 50% is typical for most countries in Africa and foreign Asia; in other regions of the world it is more than 50%.

• Level of urbanization of some countries of the world

  Japan - 77%

  UK – 92%

  Sweden – 88%

  Australia - 86%

  Mexico – 70%

  India – 26%

  Nigeria – 35%

  Indonesia – 29%

  Algeria – 44%<20 %

  Afghanistan

• Ethiopia – 16%<20 %

  Niger<20 %

Somalia

The rate of urbanization in the world is faster than population growth, so the level of urbanization in the world is continuously increasing.

Table 15.

World population growth rate in percentage for 1990-94.	Regions Urban	population Urban	Rural Urban
All
Europe
CIS countries
North America	14,4		10,0
Asia	23,2
Africa	28,0	10,1	16,3
Latin America
Australia and Oceania	16,2

The growth of the urban population is mainly due to migration from rural areas to the city. To a lesser extent, this occurs due to the natural increase in the urban population itself and due to the granting of city status to some rural settlements. Cities, especially large ones, are the focus of the economic, political and cultural life of peoples and territories.

There are many real and perceived advantages of living in a city compared to rural areas, which attracts people to cities. Due to the increase in power supply and mechanization in agriculture, labor productivity is increasing. In economically highly developed countries, agricultural production is provided by 2-6% of the economically active population. Agricultural work is often seasonal. All this frees up workers who are looking for employment in the city.

The growth of the urban population is accompanied by the growth of the cities themselves and the urban lifestyle, which is associated with an ever-increasing expansion of the service sector, requiring additional labor. Cities serve a function "central places", where shopping centers, hospitals, universities, administrative institutions, etc. are located, providing the surrounding areas "central" goods and services. Most cities combine industrial, commercial, cultural, transport and other functions. Quite often there are cities with a clear predominance of one function, examples are: political and administrative centers - Brasilia, Canberra; industrial centers - Nizhny Tagil, Toronto, Detroit; transport hubs - Durban, Tubaran, Nakhodka; resorts - Sochi, Nice, Karlovy Vary; religious centers - Sergiev Posad, Mecca, Lhasa;

tourist centers - San Marino, Suzdal, Venice; financial centers - Zurich, Frankfurt am Main, etc. The growth of cities leads to the emergence of urban agglomerations and megacities. Urban agglomeration is a city or group of cities with adjacent settlements, forming a single territorial socio-economic system with a single infrastructure. Agglomeration can be monocentric , if it is grouped around one center (London, Moscow), or when several large cities merge, for example, the Ruhr region (Essen, Cologne, Dusseldorf). An urban agglomeration, therefore, is a city that has grown beyond the city limits and has actually absorbed adjacent settlements. The Yelets urban agglomeration includes the settlements of Key of Life and Solidarity, although they are located outside the city limits, they are united with the city both territorially and by social infrastructure (communications, urban transport, etc.).

Megapolis is the connection of a number of urban agglomerations into a single large urbanized area with a population of tens of millions: Boswash: Washington - Philadelphia - New York - Boston (in the USA), Tokaido: Tokyo - Osaka - Nagoya (in Japan).

The largest urban agglomerations in the world are:

America -	Mexico City, Sao Paulo, New York, Buenos Aires, Los Angeles, Rio de Janeiro
Africa -	Cairo, Lagos
Asia -	Tokyo, Bombay, Calcutta, Shanghai, Seoul, Jakarta, Beijing
Europe	Moscow, London, Paris

The largest urban agglomeration to have crossed the 30 million population mark is Mexico City.

In addition to the obvious and implicit benefits from the concentration of industry, culture, education, science, etc., urbanization brings many problems that require close attention and study. These problems include a group of social problems. Examples are the growth of unemployment, crime, the construction of slums on the outskirts, etc. Another important group of problems is related to the functioning of urban infrastructure (the transport problem is worsening, difficulties with water supply, sewerage, etc. are increasing). Environmental problems associated with air pollution, noise, stress from the urbanized urban landscape, overcrowding, etc. are becoming increasingly acute. New problems are arising, in particular, cities are now the main potential targets of terrorists, of which there are many examples both in our country and abroad.

Suburbanization - This is the relocation of the urban population and the transfer of enterprises from city centers to their suburbs. This process was observed especially strongly from the 60-80s of the twentieth century in Europe. Despite the slowdown, it continues today, which contributes to the growth of urban agglomerations and the emergence of satellite cities. The process of suburbanization can be illustrated using the example of Moscow. Inside the Garden Ring, the population density in 1940 was 51 thousand people per 1 km², in the mid-80s of the 20th century - 15-16 thousand per 1 km², at the beginning of the 21st century - less than 10 thousand per 1 km². During this time, Moscow expanded to the Moscow Ring Road, and Lyubertsy, Balashikha, Reutov and other cities joined the urban agglomeration, and satellite cities appeared (Zelenograd, Chernogolovka, etc.).

Deurbanization (deurbanization, urbanization) is a reduction in the population of cities. The process of deurbanization is typical for highly developed countries and is caused by the desire to live in better environmental conditions, in their own homes in rural areas. Deurbanization leads to the emergence "sleeping" cities and towns, and the large urban agglomeration itself remains only a place of work.

Labor market

The sex and age structure of the population are the basis from which the concepts of "labor resources", "work force", . In different countries, and even in our own country, there are different approaches to the definition and calculation of these concepts. Let us give an example to determine these categories in Russia.

Labor resources - this is the total working-age population, minus the disabled, plus the working population of non-working age. In international statistics, working age is considered to be between 15 and 65 years of age. In Russia, the female population aged 16-54 years and the male population aged 16-59 are considered legally able to work. Labor resources objectively take into account the labor potential of the world and individual countries and are quite easily calculated. In reality, a significant part of the workforce does not work for one reason or another. These, in addition to the unemployed, include students, housewives, the pseudo-working population (criminals, rentiers, beggars, prostitutes, etc.) and dependents who simply do not want to work. Labor resources were the main category for calculating labor potential in the USSR, where labor was legally required. Currently, other categories are more often used in practice: "economically active population"(EAN), meaning all workers in the national economy, and "work force"- the sum of EAN and those actively looking for work (registered unemployed). (See diagram).

Labor market – this is the ratio of demand (from employers) and supply (from the population) of labor. In the classical version, demand less than supply determines the state of unemployment in the labor market; demand greater than supply determines the labor shortage. However, in reality everything is much more complicated, since the labor market must take into account: qualifications

Table 16.

Age composition of the Russian population

	1993		2000
Below working age (up to 16 years)	36 million		30.2 million 20,7 %
able-bodied age women 16-55 men 16-60	disabled people	working population	disabled people	working population
	3 million	81 million	4 million	82.6 million
Adults 15-59 years old women over 55 men over 60	28 million		29.2 million 20 %
Whole population	148 million 100 %		146 million 100 %

workforce, working conditions, wages, relationships between employers and trade unions and much more.

The state of the labor market and unemployment rates vary greatly across the world. In general, unemployment is higher in developing countries compared to economically highly developed ones. But in each group of countries there are large differences in economic development. In Japan, for example, unemployment ranges from 1-4% of the labor force, and in the United States - 5-15%, depending on economic conditions.

An important factor in the state of the labor market, acting both as a consequence and as a cause, is labor migration between countries.

In addition to the quantitative calculation of labor potential, its quality is of great importance. The main indicators of the quality of labor resources are the level of literacy, secondary, vocational and higher education. By the end of the twentieth century, 25% of the adult population of the Earth were illiterate, and for some developing countries this proportion is much higher (Burkina Faso - 80%, India - 50%), in general, 1/3 of the adult population of developing countries is illiterate. For developed countries, illiteracy is about 2%. Increasing the educational qualifications of the population is the most important task for economic development for all countries during the period of the scientific and technological revolution.

There is a direct dependence of the increase in gross domestic product (GDP) both in general and per capita on the increase in educational qualifications, therefore, government investments in education have great economic feasibility. In economically highly developed countries, the average education time for one person already in the eighties of the twentieth century exceeded 13 years, while for foreign Asia it did not reach 5 years. The EU countries are implementing a program according to which by 2010 at least 80% of the workforce will have higher and secondary specialized education.

Along with educational qualifications and the level of professional qualifications, the quality of the labor force is also assessed by the physical condition of the population.

To solve the problem of improving physical condition, nutrition, medical care, and the development of physical culture and sports play an important role. It is clear that in countries where diseases such as malaria, tuberculosis, and AIDS are widespread, the labor productivity of the workforce is significantly reduced.

“We are at a crossroads, either we do something or it will be too late.” Demographic winter is enveloping the earth... Having reigned in some countries, it has come very close to others. How many years are left until its complete domination on Earth? Over the past 50 years, the world has seen

Who will work in the factories, who will cultivate the land, who will guard the borders? We are already looking into the eyes of a global catastrophe, according to demographers from different countries, there is very little time left before an absolute tragedy.

The birth rate has fallen so low that even immigrants cannot replenish rapidly disappearing nations. Migration can only undermine developing countries, where birth rates are also falling rapidly. " This has not escaped either poor or rich countries in the Western and Eastern Hemispheres; birth rates are falling all over the world.“, reminds Philip Longman, author of the film “Demographic Winter”.

The decline in the birth rate is not yet so noticeable to the naked eye for one reason - people have stopped dying out like flies, the authors of the film remind.

With a decrease in “human capital”, the decline in the global economy will intensify, believes Nobel laureate Gary Becker 1992 in economics. The economic engine will be deformed, because today's company employees will not have shifts, and the aging population will need to be supported and provided for. The young working population will simply be overwhelmed by the need to provide for the older generation. This means that either only those who work today in the hope of not being left without a piece of bread in retirement will be thrown overboard, or the entire modern economic system will go off the rails.

« Human capital is expressed in knowledge and skills, and economic development directly depends on progress in the field of technical and scientific knowledge, development directly depends on the accumulation of human capital", says Gary Becker.

Attempts at modernization using social engineering services have led to children growing up in single-parent, broken families, where parents are not at home, and where parents do not intend to have many children. Who should live in the terrible era of demographic winter? To our children and grandchildren.

« Alas, many Western elites do not seem to notice the scientific data indicating that culture of a strong and healthy family necessary for the social, economic and psychological health of the most defenseless family members - children" says W. Bradford Wilcox, Ph.D., assistant professor of sociology at the University of Virginia and lead author of Why Marriage Matters? .

When will the point of no return come? Experts find it difficult to answer; no one knows how much longer we can remain deaf to what is happening. How long will we continue to slide down an inclined plane without realizing it.

The authors of the “Demographic Winter” project are confident that it is necessary to start with the revival of the traditional family. Today it is not politically correct to talk about a traditional family. Young people have no incentive to create a traditional, legal, strong family.

In a modern society of tolerance, it is believed that all forms of cohabitation, unnatural homosexual cohabitation, unregistered marriages must be respected, valued and equated with the traditional family. If this continues, we will not be able to avoid the most terrible end of civilization.

But the point is not even in unnatural forms of cohabitation - in Europe, young people are getting married later and later, living with their parents longer and longer, and as a result they are becoming more and more infantile. “Children-men” playing computer games, reading empty magazines, watching cartoons—that’s what the film’s authors call them. They put off taking responsibility for the family and put off having children.

« The old practice led to the destruction of the family and the entire social order. Instead of building a developed society, we have practically lost the only effective means of development - the family“says Christina de Volmer, president of the Latin American Family Alliance.

According to UN estimates, the continuation of current trends will lead to the fact that by 2050 there will be 248 million fewer children under 5 years of age than today.

In more than 59 countries around the world there is population decline.

Russia's population is declining by 700,000 people a year. If current trends continue, it is believed that in 43 years Russia will lose half its population.

To replenish the current population, there must be 2.1 children per family, the birth rate in Europe is 1.3.

Due to lack of children in Germany in 2006 more than 230 schools have been closed.

To provide pensions for the baby boom generation, the United States will have to double taxes.

A shortage of babies in Japan has led to economic recession, causing their stock and real estate markets to lose more than 60% of their value in just 14 years.

China's one-child program has led to 78 million men will not be able to start a family– There are not enough women in China.

Many of these trends cannot be stopped. But we can still do our best to prevent disaster.

Hundreds of professors, researchers, sociologists, and demographers from all over the world take part in the “Demographic Winter” project. They are not just worried, they are sounding the alarm. The key ideas of the project can be briefly formulated as follows:

— The world is on the verge of extinction.

“If the birth rate does not begin to increase today, then in a few decades our children will not be able to provide for a colossal number of pensioners.

— It is necessary to revive the traditional family - in cohabitation without marriage registration, people, as a rule, do not give birth to several children.

— The institution of family has been largely destroyed by all the numerous programs of recent years.

— Material incentives do not lead to an increase in the birth rate. As an example, the authors of the project cite Russia, where maternity capital is 10 times higher than the average good salary. For our part, we can recall Europe, where child benefits make it possible to fully support him, but the birth rate is falling just as rapidly. The main incentive for having children is personal and religious.

— The most terrible situation today is in Russia, only in our country half of the population may soon disappear.

The time for talking is over, we have one last chance to act so that the weight of the whole world does not fall on the shoulders of our children.

We will continue to introduce readers to the “Demographic Winter” project in subsequent materials.