In the works of academic economists there is no single point of view on crises in the development of various systems. In Russia, the dominant point of view was that crises are characteristic only of the capitalist mode of production and cannot arise under the socialist one, which is characterized only by “difficulties of growth.” Other economists believe that the concept of “crisis” is applicable only to the macroeconomic level, and that less acute problems caused by ineffective production and management systems are more suitable for the microlevel. These problems are supposedly not a consequence of the development crisis and are not caused by objective trends. If we consider the development of a company in this way, then there is no need to predict the possibility of a crisis.

Crises are not necessarily destructive, they can also have positive consequences; they can be caused by controllable and uncontrollable factors, the nature of the development of the socio-economic system. Crises can also arise in functioning processes. These are contradictions between the level of technology and the qualifications of personnel, between technologies and the conditions of their use (climate, premises, production process, compatibility, etc.) Thus, a crisis is the maximum aggravation of contradictions in an organization, threatening its stable functioning.

In the economy, the crisis destroys many of the weakest and least expediently organized enterprises, discarding outdated methods of production and forms of organization of enterprises in favor of more modern ones. The general collapse also involves many leading enterprises.

Summarizing existing ideas about crises, we can draw the following conclusions:

• crises are inevitable; These are regular, naturally repeating stages of the cyclic development of any system. Crises can also arise as an accidental result of a natural disaster or a major mistake;
• crises begin when the potential for progress of the main elements of the system is basically exhausted and the elements of the new system, representing the future cycle, have already been born and begin to fight;
• there are phases of the economic cycle; For example, we can consider the following five-phase cycle diagram:

a) stable development ending in crisis;

b) a fall in production and a deterioration in economic indicators - this is a period of collapse, a rapid aggravation of all contradictions, a sharp deterioration in many economic indicators. The destruction or transformation of outdated elements of the system occurs, the elements of the next system, representing the future, gain strength and enter into battle;

According to the classification, general and local crises arise. General crises cover the entire socio-economic system, local crises cover one or more subsystems.

On the issues of the crisis, macro- and microcrises should be indicated. The macrocrisis covers the entire national economic system. A microcrisis extends to a single problem or group of problems. But a crisis, being minimal, can, like the “domino” principle, involve the entire system or the entire development process in contradictions, since all elements are interconnected and interact in the system, problems are solved comprehensively. A crisis covers all elements when there is no management of crisis situations, no measures to localize and reduce its severity, or vice versa, when there is a deliberate motivation for the development of the crisis.

Crises can also be predictable (natural) or given (random). Predictable crises can be predicted and arise under the influence of objective development factors - the need to modernize production, business processes, macroeconomic factors. Unexpected crises arise as a result of errors in management, the action of natural forces, and the intensification of socio-economic processes. There are also crises are obvious e and latent (hidden). The first ones occur noticeably and are easily recognized. The second ones are hidden, develop unnoticed and are extremely dangerous.

Crises are also divided into mild and deep. Deep crises can destabilize parts or the entire socio-economic system. Light, mild crises occur more consistently and painlessly.

The totality of possible crises is also divided into short-term and protracted. The time factor is extremely important in a crisis situation; the longer the crisis, the more painful it is. Prolonged ones are painful and difficult. They are usually associated with a lack of skills to manage critical situations, a lack of understanding of the essence and parameters of the crisis, its causes and possible consequences.

Crises can be regular (cyclical or periodic), which repeat with a certain pattern, and irregular. Regular crises of overproduction give rise to a new cycle, during which the economy sequentially goes through four phases and prepares the basis for the next crisis. They are characterized by the fact that they cover all spheres of the economy, reaching great depth and duration. Irregular economic crises include intermediate, partial, sectoral and structural.

Intermediate The crisis does not give rise to a new cycle, but interrupts for some time the course of the recovery or revival phase. It is less deep and shorter in duration compared to periodic ones and, as a rule, is local in nature. Similar crises took place in capitalist countries in 1924 and 1927, and in 1953 - 1954. and 1960 - 1961 such crises only affected the United States and Canada.

Partial a crisis, unlike an intermediate crisis, does not cover the entire economy, but some sphere of social reproduction. A typical example is the German banking crisis of 1932.

Industry the crisis is affecting one of the sectors of the national economy. The reason for it may be imbalances in the development of the industry, structural restructuring, overproduction, etc. Such crises can be national or international. The latter include the world shipping crisis of 1958 - 1962. and the crisis in the textile industry in 1977

Structural the crisis is a consequence of a violation of the law of proportional development of social production. This is manifested in significant disproportions between industries, on the one hand, and the output of the most important types of products in physical terms, necessary for the balanced development of the economy, on the other. In the 70s The Western economy was paralyzed by energy, raw materials, and food crises.

Before the onset of the next periodic crisis, production reaches its highest level, behind which overproduction and an increase in supply are already hidden.

The classification criteria of a crisis can also be assessed as its features that “suggest” or determine the assessment of the situation, the development and selection of successful management decisions. The danger of a crisis always exists, so it is important to see the prerequisites for the occurrence of crises and determine the harmful consequences of crises.

There are very contradictory points of view on the causes of economic crises. And there are many objective prerequisites for this. The fact is that the impact on the cyclical reproduction of the same factors in different periods is very different and, moreover, their manifestation in individual states has its own characteristics. Many economists associate the duration of the cycle with scientific and technological progress (STP). The active part of fixed capital became obsolete within 10-12 years. This required its renewal, which served as a stimulus for economic revival. Since the initial impetus is the replacement of equipment and technology, the renewal of fixed capital is called the material basis of the economic cycle.

K. Marx had his own system of views not only on the reasons that determine the duration of cycles, but also on the very nature of cyclicity. The fundamental difference between K. Marx’s point of view on this problem is that he saw the reasons for the cyclical nature of capitalist reproduction in the very nature of capitalism, directly in the contradiction between the social nature of production and the private nature of the appropriation of its results.

Representatives of the neoclassical and liberal schools put forward various causes of economic crises, without connecting them with the nature of capitalism. Many of them consider the cause of crises to be underconsumption of the population, causing overproduction.

Closer to the Marxist position are economists who believe that disproportionality, or “disequilibrium,” is the cause of crises. Crises are caused by the lack of correct proportions between industries and spontaneous actions of entrepreneurs. The theory of disequilibrium is combined with another common view of crises as a product of external conditions - political, demographic, natural.

Economic science has now developed a number of different theories that explain the causes of economic cycles and crises. P. Samuelson, for example, notes the following as the most famous theories of cycles and crises in his book “Economics”: monetary theory, which explains the cycle by the expansion (contraction) of bank credit (Hawtry et al.); the theory of innovation, which explains the cycle by the use of important innovations in production (Schumpeter, Hansen); a psychological theory that interprets the cycle as a consequence of waves of pessimistic and optimistic mood sweeping the population (Pigou, Bagehot, etc.); the theory of underconsumption, which sees the cause of the cycle in too large a share of income going to rich and thrifty people, compared to what can be invested (Hobson, Foster, Catchings, etc.); the theory of overinvestment, whose proponents believe that the cause of a recession is, rather, excessive rather than insufficient investment (Hayek, Mises, etc.); theory of sunspots - weather - crops (Jevons, Moore).

In addition, the causes of the crisis can be divided into objective, related to the cyclical needs of restructuring, modernization, and subjective, due to errors in management, natural (climate, subsoil, water environment, etc.)

There are also external and internal reasons. The former are associated with the action of macro- or external economic factors, the latter - with internal factors, with a risky marketing strategy, imperfect production and management, limited innovation and investment policies, and ineffective personnel management.

If we agree that a crisis can arise as a result of a variety of external and internal factors, we can conclude that the danger of a crisis exists constantly, it must be foreseen and predicted.

To effectively manage a crisis, it is necessary to examine not only its causes, but also its consequences. For example, as a result of a crisis, it is possible for an organization to be renewed or liquidated, to improve or worsen the situation. A crisis can have both positive and extremely negative consequences. They can also develop according to the “domino principle”. It is possible to preserve crisis situations for quite a long time (for example, political). The consequences of a crisis can be reduced to drastic changes or a soft exit. And post-crisis consequences in a company can be long-term or short-term, reversible and irreversible, quantitative and qualitative.

The consequences of a crisis are determined not only by its nature and parameters, but also by the effectiveness of crisis management. The latter depends on professionalism, a motivation system, forecasting causes and consequences, the art of management, and effective methodology. The different consequences of a crisis are determined not only by its nature, but also by the method of crisis management, which can mitigate or aggravate the crisis. Management capabilities in this regard depend on the goal, professionalism, art of management, the nature of motivation, understanding of causes and consequences, and responsibility.

The socio-economic system is a self-regulating system, that is, in its existence there are mechanisms for restoring balance.

And the management system exists in order to ensure less painful and more consistent development of the socio-economic system. Overcoming crises is a controlled process.

Management success depends on timely recognition of the symptoms of a crisis. Signs of a crisis are differentiated primarily by typology: scale, severity, problems, causes, area of ​​development, phase of manifestation, possible consequences.

In recognizing a crisis, assessing the interconnection of problems is of great importance. Also in the management of the socio-economic system, the so-called monitoring of anti-crisis development should function. But such a prediction requires a clear set of signs and indicators of crisis development, a methodology for their calculation and use in analysis. Prediction of crises is possible by analyzing the factors and process of crisis development.

To recognize crises, it is necessary to use the entire system of indicators for assessing the state of the socio-economic system. Therefore, it is necessary to develop new, synthetic indicators in order to more accurately and timely determine the likelihood and moment of crisis situations.

Of great importance is not only the system of indicators reflecting the main signs of the crisis, but also the methodology for their practical use. The organization of this work is closely related to the methodology for recognizing a crisis, which presupposes the presence of specialists, the functions of their activities, interaction in the management system, and the status of recommendations or decisions. Diagnosis and forecasting of crises should be placed on a professional basis.

There are two stages of diagnosing a crisis:

• establishing that an object belongs to a specific class or group of objects;
• identifying differences between the diagnosed object and objects of its class by comparing its actual parameters with the basic ones.

The first stage is called the stage of qualitative identification of an object and involves determining the object’s parameters that are common to a certain set of objects. For example, to diagnose a macroeconomic crisis, it is necessary to determine which group according to the type of national economy the state we are interested in belongs to, namely, industrialized countries, developing countries, or countries with economies in transition.

To diagnose a crisis in a specific system, it is necessary to determine what form of ownership this system is: state, private, joint stock, etc.

At the second stage, quantitative identification of the object is carried out. For this purpose, basic diagnostic parameters are used, defined as deviations of the actual ones from the basic ones.

The way out of crisis situations depends on the methods of analyzing significant contradictions and the availability of specialists in the field of crisis management. A crisis is an objective phenomenon in a socio-economic system. This idea is consistent with the understanding that the basis for the functioning and development of a socio-economic system is the activity of a person who seeks to manage his activities and expand the scope of management, i.e., reduce the share of uncontrollable processes. To a certain extent, he succeeds. It can be assumed that in the future people will generally exclude crises from the development trends of socio-economic systems, and current crises characterize only the level of human development, lack of knowledge, and imperfect management.

This statement seems logical. But the entire practice of the development of society and the economy in all historical periods indicates the opposite. Despite the “human nature” of crises, they cannot be avoided. Moreover, in many cases it is the “human nature” of the crisis that is its cause and source.

Human activity is based on satisfying his interests, which change unevenly and disproportionately. Interests are in constant conflict not only among an individual, but also among entire social groups or classes of society. Contradictions of interests and the objective unevenness of their changes determine both the possibility and necessity of crises. This is precisely the basis of all crises in the socio-economic system - even crises associated with natural conditions.

As the socio-economic system develops, there is an increase in the role of the human factor in its anti-crisis development, which means not the exclusion of a crisis, not thoughtless opposition to it, but foresight and a confident, timely and, if possible, painless resolution.

Anti-crisis development is not the absolute absence of a crisis, but the presence of crises that are an impulse for successful (from the standpoint of human interests) development.

Only a person can have goals and interests. They are the basis for recognizing and overcoming crises.

The human factor in crisis situations manifests itself not only in a person’s attitude to the crisis, but also in crisis management at different stages of its manifestation, occurrence and course.

Management is a human activity, which is determined by his qualities: experience, education, attitude to reality and people, methodological approaches, etc.

Being an objective phenomenon, a crisis always carries within itself factors of human nature - mentality, culture, interests, social consciousness, level of education, worldview.

Thus, the crisis is the most important element of the self-regulation mechanism of a market economy. With the onset of a new crisis, one period of development ends and a new one begins. The economic crisis reveals not only a limit, but also an impulse in the development of the economy, performing a stimulating function. During a crisis, incentives arise to reduce production costs, increase profits, and competition intensifies.

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B - 11 Systematic approach to the formation of economic indicators as the basis for a comprehensive analysis

B. Social policy and its consequences. Results of economic transformations

Crises can be regular (cyclical), or periodic, and irregular (see Fig. 2.1).

Figure 2.1 – Types of economic crises

Regular crises repeat with a certain pattern and “give rise to a new Cycle, during which the economy sequentially goes through four phases and prepares the basis for the subsequent crisis. They are characterized by the fact that they cover all spheres of the economy, reaching great depth and duration.”

Regular crises include:

1) Crisis of overproduction of goods– release of excess units of product and, as a result, a decrease, and sometimes even the disappearance of demand for it;

2) Crisis of underproduction of goods– an acute shortage of goods in conditions of high demand for them. By the way, in this case, enterprises producing products that are currently in short supply can agree to simultaneously increase prices for them, which is an illegal act;

3) Crisis of loss of competitive advantage– switching consumer demand to another type of product. Such a crisis can be disastrous, therefore, it is necessary to limit the pace of production or introduce new technologies and innovative structures;

4) Reputation crisis– decline in the reputation of the company (enterprise, organization) in society. This is a rather dangerous type of crisis, since it can cause a complete decline in activity for several reasons: the release of low-quality products, for example, the detection of fraud, fraudulent actions on the part of competitors, violations of the terms of transactions, etc.;

5) Bankruptcy crisis– failure of the system.

Irregular crises are not cyclical and do not have a certain pattern in their manifestations.

Irregular crises include:

1) Intermediate– does not start a new cycle, but suspends the stage of revival or rise for a certain time. It is less deep and shorter in duration compared to periodic and, as a rule, is local in nature;

2) Partial– covers not the entire economy, but some sphere of social reproduction. It includes the following types:

monetary;

financial – deep difficulties of public finances, manifested mainly in budget deficits. The critical point is the state's insolvency on foreign loans;

foreign exchange – currency depreciation on the world market, falling exchange rates, depletion of foreign exchange reserves in banks;

stock exchange – a sharp decline in securities prices and a reduction in their issue;

3) Industry– covers one of the sectors of the national economy. The reason for it can be a variety of reasons, for example: imbalances in the development of the industry, structural restructuring, overproduction. There are such crises:

national;

international;

4) Structural– is a violation of the law of proportional development of social production, which is manifested in serious disproportions between the development of individual spheres and industries. This is, as a rule, a long, protracted crisis that is not essentially cyclical in nature. This may include, for example:

agrarian crisis – a sharp drop in prices for agricultural products, a general deterioration in the state of the economy;

industrial crisis - acute difficulties in the industrial sector, associated primarily with the lack of demand for domestic products and deterioration of technical resources.

Each economic crisis (as an economic disease) is always individually specific. At the same time, all economic crises contain more or less common, typical features.

Most common, typical feature all kinds of economic crises at all levels of management is lack of all resources(not only natural, logistical, human and information, but also organizational and managerial) for the effective implementation of target functions an enterprise, a corporation, a national economic complex, the national economy of a country or the world as a whole.

If organizational and managerial activities that make it possible to effectively combine all types of resources are not included among economic resources, then the general cause of any economic crisis should be formulated as a lack of a particular resource or shortcomings in organizational and managerial activities for combining and using available resources.

In accordance with this definition of the general cause of any economic crisis, we can distinguish main features of crises in the economy.

Type A – the existing set of real resources is insufficient to achieve the target setting. Depending on the nature and level of the goal set, the criterion for lack of resources changes. It is one thing to have internal resources to provide food to the country’s population at the level of minimum physiological needs, and quite another to provide it according to the standards of rational nutrition, and the third is to fully satisfy mass market demand with a high level of solvency when purchasing various kinds of delicacies.

Type B – financial sources are insufficient to carry out certain functions necessary to achieve certain goals.

Type B – revenues are insufficient to finance necessary production costs and pay debts.

Type G– the return from a set of real resources is equal to their narrowest link; all resources used beyond this in their given specific set represent their useless waste. For example, in Soviet times, if one third of the agricultural yield was lost during storage and transportation, then the useful output in the country's agriculture was only two thirds. If there were no these losses and production would have fallen by one third, then the final result for the consumption of agricultural products would have been the same.

Type D – imbalance of income and expenses over time. For example, an enterprise often has enough income in principle to cover its costs and pay debts, but in time it has to make financial expenses and pay debts much earlier than the corresponding income can arrive. If the company receives a loan at an acceptable interest rate or if its debts are restructured (or both), it will overcome the crisis. But if this fails, then the crisis situation may worsen.

Since the enterprise is the main link of the national economy (in the sense of creating real values ​​- the production of goods and the provision of services), crisis phenomena in the economy manifest themselves, first of all, at the enterprise.

However, the role of the meso-, macro-, and world levels of the economy, which act in relation to an individual enterprise in the form of its external relations with its surrounding economic environment, is predetermining relative to an individual enterprise.

Indeed, if you look from the “input” side of the production process at a separate enterprise, you can see that all factors of production (machines, machinery, equipment, raw materials and supplies, R&D results, labor, etc.), with a few exceptions , were created outside the enterprise, i.e. turned out to be formed at other levels of the economy. If you look at the “exit” of an enterprise’s production, which is represented by effective market demand for its products, then this demand is also predetermined mainly at higher levels of the economy. Of course, all values ​​are created directly only at enterprises, but not just at each of them, but at enterprises interacting with each other and forming, on the basis of such interaction, various structures at the meso-, macro-, and global levels of the economy. Accordingly, these higher levels of the economy in relation to an individual enterprise act as not just higher structures, but as a set of enterprises structured in various types of structures at the meso-, macro-, and global levels of the economy.

Speaking about the leading role of the meso-, macro-, world level of the economy relative to an individual enterprise, one must keep in mind that these higher levels of the economy relative to the target setting can be oriented in two ways:

a) on real processes in the production and consumption of products (healthy orientation);

b) to increase money capital (a sick orientation that always ultimately leads to a crisis).

Many individual businesses may be profit-oriented, but not all (for example, a defense company or an organization conducting basic scientific research).

However, if higher levels of the economy are focused on profit and the increase in money capital as the main goal, then an acute economic crisis is inevitable. For example, the profit-oriented market capitalist economy was unable to recover from increasingly devastating crises until the state began to redistribute approximately half of national income through taxes based on non-market targets.

Despite the importance of higher economic levels, crisis management, as a system of organizational and managerial measures aimed at neutralizing crisis phenomena in the economy, should be centered, first of all, on the enterprise, where the following are often observed:

a) financial difficulties:

b) delay in payments;

c) insolvency for a certain period;

d) actual monetary (financial) insolvency, which has not yet been subject to the initiation of a bankruptcy case, with all subsequent legal procedures;

e) bankruptcy (actual financial insolvency, recorded legally).

Crisis phenomena can be most clearly seen in the finances of an enterprise.

Questions for self-control

1. Name the essential features of state power.

2. List the main causes and consequences of public administration crises and its essential features.

3. Name and characterize the main stages of manifestation of the crisis of public administration and ways to overcome it.

4. What are the features of the crisis of public administration in Russia?

5. When and why did the possibility of economic crises arise?

6. Name the main causes of economic crises.

7. List the features of economic cycles and their types. Briefly describe their essence.

8. Describe the basic concepts of business cycles and indicate their differences.

9. What are the current trends in the dynamics of economic crises?

Features of crises:

v crises are inevitable these are regular, naturally repeating stages of the cyclical development of any system (there are also economic cycle phases);

v crises begin when the main elements of the system the potential for progress has largely been exhausted, and the elements of the new system, representing the future cycle, have already been born and are beginning to fight;

v crises can arise and how random result natural disaster or major error;

v crises are progressive for all their pain, since the crisis fulfills three most important system functions:

§ sharp weakening and elimination of outdated (non-viable) elements of the dominant system, which has already exhausted its potential;

§ clearing space for the approval of elements (initially weak) of the new system, the future cycle;

§ testing for strength and inheritance of those elements of the system that accumulate and pass into the future.

v crises are finite they can precede either a new stage in the development of the system, or its death and disintegration;

v since crises are unique, the causes and factors that cause them are varied, each time the way out of the crisis requires specific measures.

Types of economic crises:

v regular(cyclic, periodic); repeat with a certain periodicity (pattern), giving rise to a new cycle; characterized by the fact that they cover all spheres of the economy, reaching great depth and duration;

v irregular:

§ intermediate – does not start a new cycle, but interrupts the recovery or revival phase for a certain time; is less deep and shorter in duration compared to periodic and, as a rule, is local in nature;

§ partial – does not cover the entire economy, but only some sphere of social reproduction;

§ sectoral – covers one of the sectors of the national economy; the reasons can be very different (from structural adjustment to overproduction); such crises may be national or international;

§ structural – is a violation of the law of proportional development of social production.

Classification of crises

The classification prompts and determines the assessment of the situation, the development and selection of positive management decisions. The danger of a crisis always exists, even when there is none, so it is very important to know the signs of crisis situations and assess the possibilities of resolving them.

Crises are classified according to different criteria.

1. By scale of manifestation:

§ general – cover the entire socio-economic system;

§ local – cover only part of the socio-economic system.

2. On the issues of the crisis:

§ macrocrises – quite large volumes and scales of problems;

§ microcrises – cover only individual problems or a group of problems.

3. According to the structure of relations in the socio-economic system:

§ economic– reflect acute contradictions in the country’s economy or the economic state of an enterprise, firm, region, industry, etc. (crises in production and sales of goods; crises of non-payments; loss of competitive advantages, etc.);

§ financial– characterize contradictions in the state of the financial system or the financial capabilities of the company; crises in the monetary expression of economic processes (for example, bankruptcy);

§ social– arise when contradictions escalate or interests clash between different social groups (for example, employee and employer, trade union and entrepreneur); very often social crises are a continuation and addition of economic crises, but they can also arise on their own, although extremely rarely (for example, ethnic, national conflicts; dissatisfaction with working conditions);

§ political– in the political structure of society (“crisis of power”), crises in the implementation of the interests of various groups; such crises, as a rule, affect all aspects of society and turn into economic crises;

§ organizational– manifest themselves as crises of division of activities, distribution of functions and implementation of activities of individual units (crises of distribution of powers), they also mean aggravation of organizational relations (business conflicts); very often the result of such a crisis is excessive bureaucratization, organizational activity is paralyzed;

§ psychological– crises of a person’s psychological state manifest themselves in the form of feelings of uncertainty and fear; dissatisfaction with work, social status; stress;

§ technological– crises of new technological ideas, when there is a clear need for new technologies (crises of scientific and technical progress, the problem of using nuclear energy);

4. For the immediate reasons of occurrence:

§ natural – caused by natural conditions of human life and activity;

§ public - crises of social relations;

§ environmental – crises that arise when natural conditions change caused by human activity;

5. By the nature of the manifestation:

§ predictable (natural) – arise as the next stage of development, they can be predicted and are caused by objective reasons;

§ unexpected (random) – the results of management errors arising as a result of natural phenomena;

§ obvious – they occur noticeably and are easily detected;

§ hidden (latent) – a more dangerous type of crisis;

§ deep – they occur in a complex and uneven manner and often destroy the structure of the socio-economic system;

§ lungs - proceed more consistently and painlessly, they can be predicted and are easy to manage;

6. According to the time factor:

§ protracted – often the result of inability to manage a crisis, lack of understanding of the essence and nature of the crisis, its causes and possible consequences;

§ short-term.

The classification of crises is very important in their recognition, and, consequently, in their successful management.

Causes of the crisis

1. Objective (cyclicality) 2. Subjective (control errors) 3. Natural		1. Random 2. Regular
1. External socio-economic (increased inflation, instability of the tax system, imperfect legislation, increased unemployment, decreased income levels); market (decrease in the capacity of the domestic market, increased monopoly, instability of the foreign exchange market); others (political instability, crime). 2. Internal managerial (insufficient knowledge of market conditions, poor management of production costs, decreased flexibility in management, ineffective financial management); production (wear and tear and obsolescence of fixed assets, decreased labor productivity, high energy costs, overload with social facilities); market (reduced competitiveness of products, dependence on a limited circle of suppliers and buyers).

Crisis indicators

When identifying an economic crisis at an enterprise, they help crisis indicators:

Sources of information to support this work– management, financial, production accounting data

Phases of crisis

Phases of crisis, differing in content, consequences and necessary measures to eliminate them:

1. Decrease in profitability and profit volumes The consequence of this is a deterioration in the financial position of the enterprise, a reduction in sources and reserves for development. The solution to the problem can lie both in the field of strategic management (revision of strategy, restructuring of the enterprise) and tactical management (reducing costs, increasing productivity).

2. Unprofitability of production The consequence is a decrease in the reserve funds of the enterprise (if any - otherwise the third phase immediately begins). The solution to the problem lies in the area of ​​strategic management and is implemented, as a rule, through enterprise restructuring.

3. Depletion or absence of reserve funds The enterprise uses part of its working capital to pay off losses and thereby switches to a reduced reproduction mode. Restructuring can no longer be used to solve the problem, since there are no funds to carry it out. We need prompt measures to stabilize the financial position of the enterprise and raise funds for restructuring. If such measures are not taken or fail, the crisis moves into the fourth phase.

4. Insolvency The enterprise has reached that critical threshold when there are no means to finance even reduced reproduction and (or) pay for previous obligations. There is a threat of production stoppage and (or) bankruptcy. Emergency measures are needed to restore the solvency of the enterprise and maintain the production process.

Parameters and consequences of the crisis

Crisis parameters:

§ problems of crisis;

§ the scale of the crisis;

§ area of ​​development (coverage);

§ stage (phase) of manifestation of the crisis;

§ causes of the crisis;

§ possible consequences of the crisis;

§ severity of the crisis.

A crisis- this is an extreme aggravation of contradictions in the socio-economic system, threatening its viability in the environment.

Types of crises

Exist are common And local crises. General ones cover the entire socio-economic system, local ones - only part of it. This is a division of crises according to the scale of manifestation.

On the issues of the crisis we can distinguish macro- And microcrises. The macrocrisis is characterized by rather large volumes and scales of problems. A microcrisis covers only a single problem or group of problems.

The main feature of a crisis is that, even being a local or micro-crisis, like a chain reaction, it can spread to the entire system or the entire development problem. Because in the system there is an organic interaction of all elements and problems cannot be solved separately. But this occurs when there is no management of crisis situations, or vice versa, when there is deliberate motivation for the development of a crisis. Pseudo-crisis- this is a manifestation of crisis symptoms in a “healthy” economic system. A pseudo-crisis can be provoked, for example, with the aim of ousting competitors from the market, as well as veiling certain actions of business participants.

According to the structure of relations in the socio-economic system, according to the differentiation of the problems of its development, we can distinguish separate economic groups, social, organizational,technological, psychological crises. Economic crises reflect acute contradictions in the country's economy or the economic state of an individual enterprise or firm. Social crises arise when the interests of various social groups or entities collide: workers and employers, trade unions and entrepreneurs, etc. Organizational crises manifest themselves as crises of separation and integration of the activities of individual units, as separation of administrative units, regions, branches or subsidiaries. A technological crisis arises as a crisis of new technological ideas in conditions of a clearly expressed need for new technologies. Psychological crises manifest themselves in the form of stress, fears, uncertainty, dissatisfaction, etc. These are crises in the socio-psychological climate of a society, team or individual group.

Based on the immediate causes of their occurrence, crises are divided into natural, public, environmental. The former are caused by the natural conditions of human life and activity, the latter by social relations in all their forms. Environmental crises occur when natural conditions change due to human activity.

Moreover, crises can be predictable And unexpected, obvious And latent, deep And light.

There are two stages of diagnosing a crisis:

• - establishing that an object belongs to a specific class or group of objects;
• - identifying differences between the diagnosed object and objects of its class by comparing its actual parameters with the basic ones.

The first stage is called the stage of qualitative identification of an object and involves determining the object’s parameters that are common to a certain set of objects. For example, to diagnose a macroeconomic crisis, it is necessary to determine which group according to the type of national economy the state we are interested in belongs to, namely, industrialized countries, developing countries, or countries with economies in transition.

To diagnose a crisis in a specific system, it is necessary to determine what form of ownership this system is: state, private, joint stock, etc.

At the second stage, quantitative identification of the object is carried out. For this purpose, basic diagnostic parameters are used, defined as deviations of the actual ones from the basic ones.

An economic crisis is a sharp deterioration in the economic condition of the country, manifested in a significant decline in production, disruption of existing production relations, bankruptcy of enterprises, and rising unemployment.

The result of the economic crisis is a decline in the living standards of the population and a decrease in the real gross national product.

Depending on the nature of economic downturns and their coverage of various spheres or sectors of the national economy, the following types of economic crises are distinguished:

• 1. Cyclical crises are periodically recurring declines in social production, causing paralysis of business activity in all spheres of the national economy and giving rise to a new cycle of economic activity.
• 2. Intermediate crises are declines in social production that temporarily interrupt the stages of revival and recovery of the national economy. They do not give rise to a new cycle, are local in nature, and do not last long.
• 3. Structural crises are associated with a gradual and long-term increase in intersectoral imbalances in social production and are characterized by the inconsistency of the existing structure of social production with the changed conditions for the efficient use of resources. They cause long-term shocks and require a long period of adaptation to new conditions to be resolved (the energy crisis of the 70s of the 20th century increased prices by 4-5 times and forced the transition to energy-saving technologies).
• 4. Partial crises are associated with a decline in economic activity within large areas of activity. We are talking about money circulation and loans, the banking system, stock and foreign exchange markets (the global currency crisis of the 70s of the 20th century and the transition to a floating exchange rate system).
• 5. Industry crises are characterized by declines in production and curtailment of activities in one of the industries (for example, in the coal, steel, textile industries).
• 6. Seasonal crises are caused by the influence of natural and climatic factors that disrupt the accepted rhythm of economic activity (late spring for agriculture and public utilities, lack of fuel).
• 7. World crises are determined by the coverage of both individual industries on a global scale and the entire world economy.

There are general and local crises. General ones cover the entire socio-economic system, local ones - only part of it. This is a division of crises according to the scale of manifestation.

According to the problems of the crisis, macro- and micro-crises can be distinguished. The macrocrisis is characterized by rather large volumes and scales of problems. A microcrisis covers only a single problem or group of problems.

The main feature of a crisis is that, even being a local or micro-crisis, like a chain reaction, it can spread to the entire system or the entire development problem. Because there is an organic interaction of all elements in the system, and problems cannot be solved separately. But this occurs when there is no management of crisis situations, or vice versa, when there is deliberate motivation for the development of a crisis. A pseudo-crisis is a manifestation of crisis symptoms in a “healthy” economic system. A pseudo-crisis can be provoked, for example, with the aim of ousting competitors from the market, as well as veiling certain actions of business participants.

According to the structure of relations in the socio-economic system, according to the differentiation of the problems of its development, separate groups of economic, social, organizational, technological, and psychological crises can be distinguished. Economic crises reflect acute contradictions in the country's economy or the economic state of an individual enterprise or firm. Social crises arise when the interests of various social groups or entities collide: workers and employers, trade unions and entrepreneurs, etc. Organizational crises manifest themselves as crises of separation and integration of the activities of individual units, as separation of administrative units, regions, branches or subsidiaries. A technological crisis arises as a crisis of new technological ideas in conditions of a clearly expressed need for new technologies. Psychological crises manifest themselves in the form of stress, fears, uncertainty, dissatisfaction, etc. These are crises in the socio-psychological climate of a society, team or individual group.