The social portrait of the unemployed by means of statistics is obtained by analyzing data from employment services according to the annex to the form No. 1-T (employment) "Report on employment and employment of the population" for the year. It contains information on the qualitative composition of the unemployed (their distribution by sex, age, level of education, reasons for dismissal, presence of children, profession, specialty). The study of the qualitative composition of the unemployed contributes to the development of a more effective employment policy (subsidies for the expansion of jobs, a system for training and retraining the workforce, encouraging entrepreneurial activity and etc.).

In order to correctly assess the situation on the labor market, it is necessary to analyze the reasons that led citizens to the status of unemployed. Among the reasons for dismissals are the release of workers, their dismissal in connection with the reduction of staff, the liquidation of the enterprise, their own business. Among the reasons for the loss of work, a significant role is played not only by the release of workers in connection with the reorganization of production, but also by their dismissal of their own free will, which often hides not only dissatisfaction with the content and working conditions, its payment, but also structural changes in production.

Among the unemployed registered with the employment service, women predominate, while in the total number of the childless, calculated according to the ILO methodology, men dominate (53.9% in October 1995; 54.2% in October 1997; 59.4% in October 1998; 52.4% in November 1999). For reasons of unemployment among men, dismissal of their own free will is more common: for 1995-1999. the proportion of people who found themselves unemployed for this reason fluctuated within the following limits: 43.9% in October 1995. and 24.2% in August 1999, and among women 34.1% in October 1995 and 15.4% in August 1999.

The severity of the employment problem largely depends on structural changes in the economy. The release of workers is often associated with technical progress, and with a decrease in production volumes, and with its reorganization, and with the conversion of the military-industrial complex. Various reasons for the reduction of jobs determine the appropriate system of measures for the social protection of the unemployed. At the same time, unequal real opportunities for assistance in finding employment, with significant differences in situations on the labor market, lead to a strong differentiation of regions in terms of the level of officially registered unemployment.

Table 3 Composition of the unemployed registered with the authorities

employment services of Primorsky Krai (in %)

Number of unemployed - total
of them:
resigned of their own accord		41,3	47,2
redundant workers	36,8	27,4	19,5	18,5
general education graduates schools		2,3		1,9
graduates of universities and colleges	2,6	2,7	2,8	2,3
vocational school graduates		1,9	1,9	1,7
Among the unemployed have education:
higher professional	9,5	9,2	9,9	10,4
secondary vocational	21,5	21,8	19,8	19,9
initial vocational	16,1		15,2	14,9
average general	32,4	32,9	32,7	32,2
do not have a complete secondary education	20,5	21,2		21,6

The educational level of the unemployed in Russia is one of the highest in the world: at the end of 2001, in Primorsky Krai, 30% of the unemployed had higher and secondary specialized education, and in Vladivostok this figure is much higher - 59.7% (as of January 1, 2002 .). Unemployed women, as a rule, have a higher level of education than men: for example, in Primorsky Krai by the end of 2001, 34% of unemployed women had higher and secondary specialized education, while 23% of men had.

At present, education in Russia does not act as a factor of social protection against unemployment. In the future, we can expect an increase in the stability of the position of a worker in production with an increase in his educational level. This trend can be observed today in Western countries

From the standpoint of the professional orientation of the unemployed, it is necessary to study their age composition. The bulk of the unemployed in Primorsky Krai are people of mature age. The distribution of the unemployed in the PC by age in 2001, if we take their number as 100%, is as follows:

age	%
up to 20	6,4
20-24	13,2
25-29	15,8
30-49	53,4
50-54	7,2
55-59	1,9
60-72	2,1

The average age of the unemployed was 35 years. ()

Age can also be taken into account when developing specific measures to help the unemployed. For example, in France, after the expiration of the period for paying unemployment benefits (65 months), unemployment assistance is allocated, the amount of which depends on the age of the unemployed: from 65 to 130 francs per person per day.

Youth unemployment is of particular social importance. In 2001, 35.5% of the unemployed in PC were under the age of 30. In a number of regions of the country, young people are employed along with state employment services by youth labor exchanges, as well as the Interregional Employment Center.

An important role in statistics is played by information on the duration of unemployment of the disabled as one of the socially unprotected segment of the population, requiring special care from the state. The average period of unemployment for persons with disabilities is longer than for the entire population of the unemployed as a whole. In the Primorsky Territory, the number of unemployed people with disabilities has increased by 2.7 times over 4 years.

In order to provide real assistance to people with disabilities in finding employment, in many countries, enterprises are required to provide a certain part of the jobs to people with disabilities or to deduct the appropriate amount to the fund for helping people with disabilities. At present, in Russia, enterprises in which people with disabilities account for at least 50% have some tax benefits.

Table 4. Occupational rehabilitation of persons with disabilities by the state employment service PC (persons)

In world practice, a lot of experience has been accumulated in studying unemployment, and in Russia it is a fundamentally new phenomenon in the life of society that arose in the early 1990s. Families that include unemployed people have become one of the new risk groups, the least protected part of the population.

Unemployment has serious economic and social consequences. The first of these include the following:

• underproduction, underutilization of the productive capacity of society. The relationship between the unemployment rate and the lag in gross national product (GNP) is reflected in Okun's law: 1% excess actual level unemployment over natural leads to a lag in the actual volume of GNP by 2.5% of the potential;
• a significant decline in the standard of living of people who find themselves unemployed, since work is their main source of livelihood;
• deceleration of level growth wages employed as a result of emerging competition in the labor market;
• an increase in the tax burden on the employed due to the need for social support for the unemployed: payments of benefits and compensations, etc.

In addition to economic consequences, unemployment has serious social and psychological consequences, often less obvious, but even more significant than economic ones. The main ones include the following:

• increased political instability and social tension in society;
• aggravation of the criminogenic situation, the growth of crime;
• an increase in the number of suicides, mental and cardiovascular diseases, and deaths from alcoholism;
• loss of qualifications and practical skills by the unemployed; exacerbation of family relations and an increase in divorces; reduction of external social ties of the unemployed.

To unemployed in accordance with the definition given by the ILO, includes persons of the age established for measuring economic activity, which in the period under review can be simultaneously characterized by the following criteria:

• a) did not have a job (profitable occupation);
• b) searched for a job during the four weeks preceding the surveyed week, i.e. applied to the state or commercial employment service or directly to the administration of the enterprise (employer), used or placed advertisements in the press, tried to use personal connections, etc. or took steps to start their own business;
• c) were ready to start work during the surveyed week.

When conducting a survey of the population on employment and measuring unemployment, the criterion for being unemployed refers to the surveyed week; the job search criterion extends to the four weeks preceding the surveyed week; the criterion of readiness to start work is two weeks after the surveyed week. Although each criterion has its own time limits, the unemployment rate refers to the surveyed week. Pupils, students, disabled people and pensioners are counted as unemployed if they were looking for work and were ready to start it. Occupations and activities of the unemployed, as noted above, are determined by the last place of work.

Employment surveys provide comparable information on the number and composition of the unemployed according to the following characteristics:

• sex (with the allocation of the least protected in social terms of the unemployed - women);
• age (with emphasis on youth unemployment);
• place of residence (with the allocation of urban and rural population);
• level of education;
• marital status;
• reasons for dismissal;
• duration and methods of job search;
• work experience;
• types of activities.

In addition to the number of unemployed, determined in the process of surveys according to the methodology of the ILO, it is also determined number of officially registered unemployed in the employment offices. In accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation, this category includes able-bodied citizens who do not have a job and earnings (labor income), living in the territory of the Russian Federation, registered at the employment center at their place of residence in order to find a suitable job, looking for a job and ready to start it. According to the legislation of the Russian Federation, citizens cannot be recognized as unemployed:

• 1) those who have not reached the age of 16, as well as citizens who, in accordance with the pension legislation, have been assigned a pension by age (but old age), for long service;
• 2) within 10 days from the date of applying to the employment service from two options for a suitable job, including temporary work, and for the first time looking for a job without a profession (specialty), - in case of two refusals to receive vocational training or from the proposed paid job including temporary work;
• 3) who, without a valid reason, did not appear within 10 days from the date of registration in order to search for a suitable job at the employment service bodies to offer them a suitable job, as well as those who did not come within the time period set by them for registration as unemployed.

The number of unemployed, which is determined according to the ILO methodology based on the results of a survey of the population on employment problems, differs significantly from the number of officially registered unemployed (three times on average). If, according to the survey data, at the end of November 2005 the number of unemployed was 5.2 million people, then according to Rosstat, the number of unemployed registered with state employment services on the same date was 1.8 million people.

At statistical study Unemployment is seen as a violation of the equilibrium in the labor market. In this regard, the following types of unemployment are distinguished in international practice: frictional (current), seasonal, opportunistic, and structural. A brief description of each type of unemployment is presented in Table. 3.14.

Table 3.14

Characteristics of the types of unemployment

Type of unemployment	Characteristic			Groups of persons
Friction (current)	Availability is enough a large number vacancies. Short duration of unemployment. Low unemployment rate		Job change for personal reasons. Entry into the labor market. Change of job due to changes in the situation on the labor market	beginners in this profession. Women after the "family phase". Persons changing jobs
Seasonal	Regular annual fluctuations in unemployment. Short duration of unemployment. High proportion of unemployed in professions and industries influenced by seasonal factors		Seasonal fluctuations in demand for labor resources. Institutional terms (terms of layoffs, graduation). Seasonal nature of activities in certain industries	Working on seasonal jobs (agriculture, construction). Graduates
opportunistic	A high proportion of unemployed in industries that depend on the labor market.		Decline in production and demand for products, decline in business activity	Workers. Persons with low qualifications. Employees of older age groups
		Sharp increase in the share of the unemployed during periods of economic downturns		Young workers who are not fully protected from possible dismissal
Structural		High proportion of unemployed. Long duration of unemployment. Coexistence of unemployment and labor demand	Too little economic growth. Transition to new generations of equipment and technology. International competition. Insufficient mobility of labor and capital	Senior workers. Low skilled workers. workers in certain professions. Beginners in this profession. Regional unemployment

The most serious problem in modern conditions is structural unemployment, which exists even during periods of economic recovery. At present, the concept structural unemployment is interpreted as follows:

• 1) in a narrow sense, structural unemployment is stable unemployment: there is a sufficient number of vacancies, which, however, do not correspond to the qualifications of the unemployed. Its prerequisite is the presence, at least in certain areas of the labor market in certain regions, professions and qualifications, of a lack of labor force;
• 2) structural unemployment manifests itself in situations characterized by a persistent shortage of jobs due to insufficient economic growth;
• 3) in a broader sense, structural unemployment is either temporary or long-term underemployment due to changes in the structure of the economy.

The number of unemployed in Russia reached its highest level in 1999; in subsequent years, there is a clear downward trend in the number of unemployed. The difference between the number of officially registered unemployed and the total number of unemployed, calculated according to the ILO methodology, is to a certain extent explained by the lack of incentive to register the unemployed with the employment service due to the complexity of this process and the low levels of unemployment benefits. Starting from the second half of 1999, there has been a decrease in the total number of unemployed, determined according to the ILO methodology, but the number of officially registered unemployed after 2000 increased: in 2005, compared with 2000, its growth rate was 78.14%. The number of unemployed women decreased over this period by 21.2%, the rate of decline in the total number of unemployed slowed down significantly: if in 2000 compared to 1999 it decreased by 22.8%, then in 2005 compared to 2004 city ​​- by 8.87%.

At the end of January 2007, in accordance with the methodology of the ILO, the number of unemployed was 5.3 million people, or 7.1% of the economy. active population. 1.7 million people were registered with the state employment service.

Table 3.15

Unemployment rates in Russia

Indicators
1. Total number of unemployed, thousand people
Of which women: thousand people
2. The number of unemployed registered with the state employment service, thousand people
3. Share of women in the number of officially registered unemployed, %
4. Unemployment rate, %: total
5. Registered unemployment rate, %

Published in Table. 3.15, it is obvious that women predominate in the structure of officially registered unemployment. Women's unemployment is often the result of a variety of discriminatory processes in employment policy: selection based on sex, priority in firing workers, and so on. For the period 2000–2005 the proportion of women in the officially registered unemployed was more than 2/3. The share of women in the number of unemployed, determined according to the methodology of the ILO, is significantly lower. These differences are primarily due to the fact that the least active and competitive part of the population, which women traditionally belong to, applies to the employment service (according to surveys, most men consider it unworthy to apply to the employment service, as this may indicate their inability to independently solve a job issue).

According to the data given in table. 3.15, the unemployment rate, calculated according to the ILO methodology, is declining, including for women and men.

One of the most important areas of analysis of unemployment is the study of its duration. According to population surveys on employment issues, the distribution of the unemployed by the duration of the job search is considered, with the allocation of data to the urban and rural population, sex and age. In addition to characterizing the structure of the unemployed by the duration of the job search, average job search time defined as follows:

where is the job search time in i-th group; - the number of unemployed in i-th group.

Russia is characterized by a high average duration of job search in comparison with developed countries. Let us consider the results of the distribution of the unemployed in Russia by the duration of the job search for 2004 and 2005. The initial information is presented in table. 3.16.

For comparison, we present the values ​​of the share of those who were looking for a job for 12 months. and more in 1999. In general, for all the unemployed, it was 47.2%, for men - 39.4%, for women - 51.5%. The average duration of a job search in the same year was 9.7 months, including 9.2 months for men. and in women - 10.2 months.

Table 3.16

The structure of the unemployed by the duration of the job search (on average for February - November 2007 and 2008), %

Unemployed	Duration of job search, months						Average job search time, months
						12 or more

According to the results of the analysis of the data in Table. 3.16 we can draw the following conclusions:

• in comparison with 1999, in 2008 the average duration of job search decreases (for all unemployed by 17.5%, for women by 17.6%);
• share of the unemployed with a job search duration of 12 months. and more decreases, and this pattern can be traced for both men and women, but the proportion of women in this group of unemployed is much higher. Moreover, with a decrease in this share to the greatest extent in women, in men it decreased by 1.6 p.p. in 2008 compared to 1999;
• all distributions are characterized by a significant left-sided asymmetry, since about 40% of the unemployed have been looking for work for a year or more;
• the average duration of a job search for women in Russia is longer than for men, but for both men and women it is decreasing;
• In 2008, compared to 2007, the proportion of unemployed increased in three groups: those seeking work for less than 1 month. (by 2 p.p.), from 1 to 6 months. (by 2.7 p.p.) and from 3 to 6 months. (by 1.3 p.p.);
• The populations of the unemployed are heterogeneous in terms of the duration of the job search, as evidenced by the high values ​​of the coefficients of variation (about 60%).

The study of the distribution of the unemployed of different ages by the duration of the job search suggests a relationship between the age of the unemployed and the duration of the job search.

For young people aged 20 to 24, the average time to find a job in February-November 2008 was 6.6 months; for unemployed people aged 25-29, this average was 8.0 months; the average time to find a job increased sharply at the age of 45–49 years - 9.3 months. and at the age of 55 to 59 years - 9.5 months.

Let us consider the composition of the unemployed by level of education and find out whether there are differences in the professional education of the unemployed in urban settlements and rural areas (Table 3.17).

Table 3.17

Unemployed by level of education (average for February - November 2008)

The level of education	Total unemployed		Including
	thousand people		urban population		rural population
			thousand people		thousand people
unemployed, total
They are educated in:
higher professional
incomplete higher professional
secondary vocational
initial vocational
average (full) general
basic general
do not have a basic common

According to survey data for 2008, higher and incomplete higher professional education had 14.7% of the unemployed, for the employed population, this proportion was 28.7%. In urban settlements, the proportion of unemployed with higher education and incomplete higher education is almost 2 times higher than this proportion in rural areas. The unemployed with a secondary (complete) general education make up the largest share - 33.3%, including in cities - 29.8%, in rural areas - 39.0%.

In this regard, the question arises about the degree of efficiency in the use of the educational potential of the workforce in Russian Federation.

If the given data is supplemented with a characteristic of the unemployment rate among specialists of various specialties, then we will obtain certain information for analyzing the current need for specialists of a certain qualification.

Thus, in November 2004, among young people aged 20–29 who received higher and secondary economic education, approximately 182,000 people were unemployed. For groups of construction specialties, the unemployment rate in the same age group with the same level of education was 8.4%. The unemployment rate is even higher among people aged 20-29 who have received higher and secondary vocational education in agricultural professions - 14.9%.

If we take into account that in 2005, on average, persons with higher professional education spent 8.1 months searching for a job, and 8.5 months for those with secondary education, a high degree of underutilization of specialists with a high level of professional education becomes apparent.

Unemployment in market economy in a certain amount is considered inevitable, and its natural level in economically developed countries it is estimated at 7%.

The most common measure of unemployment is unemployment rate:

If we compare the unemployment rate in the Russian Federation with developed countries, then our country will be in the middle group. Thus, in 2008 the proportion of the number of unemployed in the economically active population in Russia was 7.0%, while in Japan it was 4.0%, in Great Britain 5.3%, and in the USA 5.8%.

However, if we consider the level of unemployment in the regions, then the situation will not be so favorable. On average for February - November 2008 in the Southern, Siberian and Far Eastern federal districts the unemployment rate exceeds the national average – 6.3% (Table 3.18).

The proportion of the unemployed in the economically active population in rural areas is significantly higher: with an average level of unemployment in the Russian Federation of 9.6%, in the Southern Federal District it is 13.1%, in the Siberian Federal District - 12.1%. The least favorable situation with unemployment is in the Southern Federal District. More detailed data by region federal districts are contained in the table. 3.19.

Table 3.18

Unemployment rate in federal districts (average for February - November 2005), %

Table 3.13

The main parameters of the unemployment rate by regions of federal districts (for February - November 2005)

federal district	Number of regions	Unemployment rate, %					Asymmetry
		minimum	maximum	range of variation	mean
Central							left-sided
Northwestern							left-sided
							right hand
Volga							left-sided
Ural							left-sided
Siberian							right hand
Far Eastern							left-sided
In general for the Russian Federation							left-sided

The lowest unemployment rate during this period was in Moscow - 0.9%, and the highest - 55.0% - in the Republic of Ingushetia. Ranking all regions of the Russian Federation by unemployment rate, we determine the first quartile ( Q 1 = 5.3%), median (Me= 7.3%) and the third quartile ( Q 3 = 8.5%). This gives grounds to conclude that in 25% of the regions of the Russian Federation the unemployment rate was below 5.3%, in half of the regions it was below 7.3%, and in 25% of the regions it was above 8.5%. The quarterly deviation was 1.6. In most federal districts (except for the Southern and Urals), the unemployment rate for men exceeded the unemployment rate for women, and on average in the Russian Federation this excess amounted to 0.5 percentage points. The unemployment rate in rural areas is 1.8 times higher than in urban areas.

When analyzing the dynamics of unemployment for a set of federal districts, an index of variable composition is calculated:

where and - the average unemployment rate in the country, respectively, in the reporting and base periods; and - the number of economically active population of the /-th federal district, respectively, in the reporting and base periods; and is the unemployment rate in j th federal district, respectively, in the reporting and base period; – specific gravity j th federal body in the economically active population of the country.

The value of the variable unemployment index is formed under the influence of changes in two factors:

• 1) the level of unemployment in individual federal districts;
• 2) distribution of the economically active population by federal districts.

The influence of the first factor is assessed using the index of the unemployment rate of a fixed composition

To measure the impact of changes in the distribution of the economically active population by federal districts on the dynamics of the unemployment rate in the country, the index of the impact of structural changes is calculated:

Factor analysis makes it possible to explain the change in the number of unemployed under the influence of changes in the unemployment rate in federal districts, changes in the distribution of the number of economically active settlements across federal districts, and changes in the total number of economically active population in the country.

Let us represent the change in the number of unemployed (ΔBW) as follows:

The second term can be presented in a slightly different form, which will allow us to supplement the analysis with an assessment of the influence of the structural factor on the change in the number of unemployed.

Data for the analysis of the dynamics of the unemployment rate for 2003 and 2005 are given in table. 3.20.

Table 3.20

Unemployment rate by federal districts for 2003 and 2005

The most significant decrease in the unemployment rate took place in four federal districts: Central, Southern, Siberian and Urals.

The variable unemployment index equal to 0.733 indicates that in 2008, compared to 2003, unemployment in the Russian Federation decreased by 26.7% (6.3:8.6).

The decrease in the average unemployment rate in Russia, due to its decrease in all federal districts, amounted to 25.0%.

Thus, due to changes in the distribution of the economically active population by federal districts, the average unemployment rate in the Russian Federation increased by 5.9% in 2008 compared to the value of this indicator in 2003.

Particular attention is currently being paid to the analysis of employment and unemployment among young people.

In the UN Millennium Declaration, approved in September 2000, among other relevant goals to combat poverty, disease, illiteracy, pollution environment and discrimination against women, the objective was to "develop and implement policies for decent and productive work for young people". As an indicator for monitoring the implementation of this task, the indicator is included in the UN system of indicators unemployment rate in the age group from 15 to 24 years, which is determined by the ratio of the number of unemployed in this age group to the number of economically active population in this group.

According to the November 2005 Employment Population Survey, 1,481,000 young people aged 15-24 were classified as unemployed, and the unemployment rate was 15.64% for this age group as a whole. At the same time, the unemployment rate in the group of 15-20 years old was 29.16%, and in the group of 20-24 years old - 12.29%. In the total number of unemployed, the share of young people under the age of 20 is 10.5%, those aged 20-24 years - 17.9%. From 2000 to 2005, the share of young people under the age of 20 and 20-24 in the total number of unemployed increased by 1.9 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively. The average age of the unemployed has also fallen. So, but according to the November population surveys on employment problems, the average age of the unemployed was 34.9 years in 2004, 34.8 years in 2005, and 34.3 years in 2006.

In table. 3.21 shows data on the unemployment rate among young people by age group for 1998–2008. (at the end of November). The unemployment rate at the age of 20–24 tends to decrease (it decreased by 42.9% compared to 1998), as does the unemployment rate of young people under the age of 20, which decreased by 31.6% during the study period. %. Finally, the youth unemployment rate is very much higher than the average surveyed unemployment rate. It should be noted that such a high level of unemployment among young people is determined not only by the large number of job seekers, but also by a significant proportion of the economically inactive population, since at the age of 15–24 a significant part of young people are full-time students. Thus, in 2004, 79% of young people aged 15–20 studied at daytime departments of educational institutions, and at the age of 20–24, the share of students was about 26%. And this means that the number of economically active population in the indicated age groups is decreasing and, as a result, the unemployment rate is growing, which is calculated by the ratio of the number of unemployed to the number of economically active population.

Table 3.21

The unemployment rate of the population of Russia in various age groups,%

Groups by age
All population aged 15-72
Of them aged: up to 20 20-24

In 2008, compared with 2000, the number of employed young people under the age of 20 decreased by 314 thousand people, or by 19.7%; at the age of 20–24, the number of employed persons increased by 1,123 thousand people, or by 18, 0%. The structure of jobs of employed youth is characterized by a higher share of those employed in the informal sector, which is especially typical for young people in rural areas, where the share of people aged 15–19 in the informal sector reaches 40%.

At the same time, as a positive fact, it should be noted that the share of young people under the age of 30 in 2005 in the composition of managers at all levels was 12.6%.

• labor market statistics. T. 8. German Federal Statistical Office. - 1999. - S. 27, 28.

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Ministry Agriculture Russian Federation

Orenburg State Agrarian University

Department of Statistics and Economic Analysis

COURSE WORK

Analysis of the composition and structure of the unemployed population in the Russian Federation

Completed: student 34 gr. specialty

Economics and Management

Atamanova A.P.

Checked by: Candidate of Economics, Associate Professor Khabarova S.V.

Orenburg-2010Contents

Introduction

1.1 Concepts and types of unemployment

3.2 Correlation-regression analysis

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

Currently, unemployment is becoming an integral element of the life of Russia, which has a significant impact not only on the socio-economic, but also on the political situation in the country, which is the relevance of the research topic.

Unemployment is becoming an integral attribute of the market economy system, seriously affecting the performance economic activity subjects market economy, economic and social life the whole society. Unemployment is a macroeconomic problem that has the most direct and strongest impact on every individual. Therefore, unemployment cannot be viewed only as economic phenomenon. It is necessary to take into account its social aspects. Losing a job for most people means a decline in living standards and causes serious psychological trauma. Therefore, it is not surprising that the problem of unemployment is often the subject of political debate.

The most threatening factor in the growth of unemployment and the mass release of people from production was the destruction of ties between industries and, for this reason, the curtailment of production at large and super-large enterprises. The rupture of horizontal economic ties, violation of contractual obligations for the supply of products led to a decrease in production volumes, a reduction in the number of jobs and workers.

The economically active population could not meet the requirements new economy which needed active workers who were able to learn independently, to act actively, not being afraid to take responsibility. The negative attitude towards small business that existed at that time prevented the creation of new jobs, thereby contributing to unemployment.

The labor market has changed dynamically over the past decade. High technologies are being introduced into an increasing number of spheres of life. Therefore, the importance of highly skilled labor is increasing. The end of the 20th century was marked by a boom in higher education, which resulted in a significant increase in the number of school graduates continuing their education at the university. At the same time, the socio-economic transformation of Russia has remained in the recent past, signs of which have become a crisis situation in the labor market and a brain drain.

The purpose of this course work is to study unemployment as an economic category, its theoretical aspects and manifestations in the practice of economic activity. In accordance with this goal, the following tasks are defined in the work:

Define the concept and essence of unemployment, the causes of its occurrence, as well as economic and social consequences;

Consider the classification of types of unemployment, identify their specifics;

Make a statistical analysis of the structure and dynamics of unemployment in the Russian Federation;

Determine ways and methods to prevent unemployment, consider anti-crisis policy measures in the field of employment.

The subject of the study is the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the unemployed, as well as changes in the economic activity of society that accompany unemployment.

The object of the study is the unemployed of the Russian Federation.

Problems in the labor market were considered in the works of many authors: A.D. Popova, S.V. Kurysheva, F.T. Prokopova, A.E. Lapina, V.V. Skobeeva, I.I. Egorova V.D. Areshchenko and others. Scientists have studied in detail unemployment, its structure and dynamics. This work is devoted to the analysis of unemployment based on existing research.

1. Theoretical basis study of unemployment

1.1 The concept and types of unemployment

Unemployment for all countries of the world is a social evil. However, if in countries with a developed market economy, with a more or less significant level of unemployment, the economy and the population have been successfully existing for decades, then the Russian labor market and the corresponding unemployment have no analogues in the world due to the relatively low material well-being of our population and the unemployed in features, higher social tension in society, capable of causing significant social upheavals in Russia.

Unemployment- this is a socio-economic phenomenon in which part of the labor force (economically active population) is not employed in the production of goods and services. The unemployed, along with the employed, form the country's labor force. In real economic life Unemployment is the excess of the supply of labor over the demand for it.

The entire population of the country of working age, able to work (i.e. minus the disabled, the mentally ill and prisoners) is divided into 2 categories:

economically active;

economically inactive.

The economically active population, or labor force, consists of the employed and the unemployed:

where LF is the economically active population or labor force;

E - employed;

U - unemployed.

The unemployed are persons of working age who during the period under review:

Did not have a job (profitable occupation);

They were looking for work - they turned to the state or commercial employment services, used or placed advertisements in the press, directly turned to the administration of the enterprise or the employer, used personal contacts, etc. or took steps to start their own business;

Were ready to start work.

The unemployed also include persons who, during the period under review:

Did not have a job, but agreed on a start date for work (within two weeks after the period under review) and did not continue to search for it;

They did not have a job, they were ready to start, but they did not look for a job, as they were waiting for a response from the administration or the employer to their earlier appeal. In this case, the waiting period for a response should not exceed one month.

Pupils, students, pensioners and the disabled are counted as unemployed if they were looking for work and were ready to start it.

Unemployment should be distinguished as an economic category from its accounting and statistical measurement. The essence of unemployment as an economic category consists in the fact that part of the economically active population of the country cannot use its labor force (ability to work), becomes a "surplus population", deprived of the opportunity to work for various periods of time, receive labor income and are threatened with loss of qualifications, profession, social status , declining living standards. Accounting and statistical measurement of unemployment carries an element of convention, depending on the criteria for classifying certain persons as unemployed and the base against which their number is compared (able-bodied population, employed population, economically active population, etc.). Currently, the indicator characterizing the unemployment rate is calculated as the ratio of the number of unemployed to the economically active population, i.e., to the total number of employed and unemployed, including the unemployed.

Russia has come into close contact with unemployment since 1992, when, after the adoption in 1991 of the Law of the Russian Federation on Employment of the Population, employment services began to officially assign the status of unemployed to people looking for work. unemployment anti-crisis policy

"Unemployment violates one of the fundamental human rights - the right to work" - says the Declaration of Human Rights. The Law of the Russian Federation "On Employment of the Population" (Article 5, Chapter 1) states: "The state ensures the implementation of a policy to promote the realization of citizens' rights to full, productive and freely chosen employment."

In Russia, obtaining the status of unemployed is more rigid than in international documents. In Art. 3 Chapter 1 states that the status of the unemployed is assigned to able-bodied citizens who do not have work and earnings, are registered with the employment service in order to find a suitable job and are ready to start it.

According to ILO Convention No. 168 of 1988 "On the Promotion of Employment and Protection against Unemployment", total unemployment is understood "as the loss of earnings due to the inability to obtain suitable work in relation to a person who is able to work, willing to work and really looking for work."

Thus, if the state of unemployment in Russia is based on five criteria, then in the ILO Convention - only on three, related mainly to human activity for a specific period of time and not dependent on legal norms, due to the registration of the unemployed in the employment service and the payment of unemployment benefits as it is practiced in Russia.

There are several types of unemployment:

1. By time (duration): short-term (up to 6 months); long-term (chronic) (from 6 to 18 months); stagnant (over 18 months), associated with the destruction of skills for work, and often with the collapse of the socio-psychological foundations of the individual.

2. For reasons : frictional, voluntary, forced, structural, technological, hidden, cyclical, seasonal. institutional.

Frictional unemployment (fluid) associated with the short-term period necessary to look for a new job in connection with education, change of residence, etc. Unemployment of this type in a market economy can be reduced, but not eliminated.

Frictional unemployment is unemployment associated with the short-term period necessary to find a new job, in connection with education, exit from maternity leave, relocation. As wealth increases, frictional unemployment can increase, and it can be reduced as methods of collecting information about jobs improve, which, however, requires an increase in costs.

Economists use the term frictional unemployment (associated with looking for or waiting for a job) to refer to workers who are looking for a job or waiting to get a job in the near future. The definition of "frictional" accurately reflects the essence of the phenomenon: the labor market functions clumsily, with a creak, not bringing the number of jobs and jobs into line.

In essence, frictional unemployment is voluntary, and the resulting temporary unemployment of a citizen is not of a forced nature. In industrialized countries, frictional unemployment covers 2-3% of the economically active population.

The combination of structural and frictional unemployment determines, according to most economists, the level of natural unemployment. Frictional unemployment is the result of the dynamism of the labor market, while structural unemployment arises from a territorial or professional mismatch between supply and demand in the labor market. Thus, the level of natural unemployment is that social minimum level below which it is impossible to fall and which corresponds to the concept of full employment. Wherein full-time is understood not as total, but as employment, not excluding a certain natural level of unemployment.

Voluntary unemployment , arising from the dismissal of employees at their own request. The less likely workers are to find new job with the best conditions hiring, the less often he quits, the smaller the size of voluntary unemployment.

Involuntary unemployment occurs when the market is in such a state that the supply of labor exceeds the demand for it. Involuntary unemployment especially increases during a decline in production, when employers (entrepreneurs) are forced to reduce the size of production due to unfavorable business conditions.

Structural unemployment usually occurs on the basis of scientific and technological shifts, as a result of which the labor force, in terms of its professional and qualification characteristics, ceases to meet the requirements of the economy and therefore cannot be used. A particular example of such a situation is the conversion of the military economy, the conversion of enterprises to the production of civilian products, and the resulting changes in the structure of personnel.

Over time, important changes occur in the structure of consumer demand and in technology, which, in turn, change the structure of the overall demand for labor. Due to such changes, the demand for some types of professions is reduced or even stops. The demand for other professions, including new ones that did not exist before, is increasing. Unemployment occurs because the labor force reacts slowly and its structure does not fully correspond to the new structure of jobs. As a result, it turns out that some workers do not have skills that can be quickly sold; their skills and experience have become obsolete and unnecessary due to changes in technology and the nature of consumer demand.

Structural unemployment is unemployment associated with the period of job search by those workers whose specialty or qualifications do not allow them to find the necessary work. Structural unemployment is thus associated with a mismatch between supply and demand for labor. Such a discrepancy may exist not only within the scope of work, but also between regions of the country.

Structural unemployment is associated with changes in technology, as well as the fact that the market for goods and services is constantly changing: new products appear that displace old ones that are not in demand. In this regard, enterprises are reconsidering the structure of their resources and, in particular, labor resources. As a rule, the introduction of new technologies leads either to the dismissal of part of the workforce or to retraining of personnel.

Technological unemployment is a type of structural unemployment caused by a mismatch between the demand for labor and its supply in terms of professional and qualification composition as a result of changes in technology and technology.

Hidden unemployment is the concentration of surplus labor in production, which does not participate in the production of material goods and is not taken into account by statistics. Hidden unemployed include workers employed in production, but in reality are "superfluous".

In accordance with the methodology Federal Service employment in Russia, prepared taking into account international standards, the unemployment rate is defined as the ratio of the unemployed officially registered in the state employment service to the economically active population, expressed in%. In this case, the numerator is determined by the employment service for a certain period (month, quarter, half year and year), the denominator is an indicator that the authorities represent State Committee according to Russian statistics.

Cyclical unemployment - a type of unemployment that is constantly changing in scale, duration and composition of the unemployed, associated with the business cycle. The scale and duration of cyclical unemployment reaches a peak during a recession (crisis) of the economy and a minimum - during an economic recovery.

Cyclical unemployment is associated with insufficient aggregate demand on goods and services, which causes an increase in unemployment in the industries where these goods are produced.

Seasonal unemployment is associated with the seasonal nature of wage labor, more often in agricultural production, fishing, construction and other industries. Another type of unemployment is seasonal unemployment, which is generated by the temporary nature of the performance of certain types of activities and the functioning of sectors of the economy.

Seasonal unemployment is associated with unequal production volumes performed by some industries in different periods of time, that is, in some months the demand for labor in these industries increases (and, consequently, unemployment decreases), in others it decreases (and unemployment increases)

One of the varieties of unemployment is partial unemployment, which occurs as a result of a decrease in demand for the company's products. In this case, two options for the behavior of the entrepreneur are possible: either he retains the opportunity to work for part of the staff in full work time, and dismisses the other part, or without dismissal, makes it possible for everyone to work part-time, which leads to the emergence of part-time employment.

Institutional unemployment - generated legal regulations, the structure of the labor market. For example, excessive social payments cause a decrease in the supply of labor, contribute to an increase in the unemployment rate.

By socio-demographic groups of the population. The specificity of these population groups predetermines the characteristics of the corresponding types of unemployment. In this sense, one can speak of youth unemployment, female unemployment, and so on.

1.2 Causes of unemployment and its consequences

In a market economy, unemployment appears as a result of the interaction between the demand for labor and its supply. In countries with a developed market economy, unemployment can, as a rule, be the result of an increase in the efficiency of production and its restructuring as a result of scientific and technological progress, a reduction in the production of any product due to its uncompetitiveness, which leads to a reduction in employment. Russian unemployment is fundamentally different in its prerequisites from similar phenomena in Western countries.

The main factor contributing to the emergence and growth of unemployment in the country was the release of the labor force against the backdrop of a nationwide decline in production due to the crisis of the socio-economic and political system of society, which led to the collapse of economic ties, the closure of enterprises, and significant reductions in centralized investments. Analysis of release processes in transition period showed that the fall in output and the rise in unemployment are extremely weakly correlated. Specificity Russian unemployment is also determined by the fact that, in contrast to countries with developed market economies with their overproduction of goods and the limited market, in Russia there are no insurmountable obstacles to the creation of new jobs for the unemployed, since the capacity Russian market for the production of goods and services is far from exhausted.

In addition, the ratio of demand and supply of goods and services, as well as their volumes in developed countries, fully satisfy the effective demand of the population, and are also very close to rational consumption rates per capita. In addition, the level of wages in these countries is determined by the cost of labor, which fully ensures the purchasing power of the population. As you know, in Russia the level of wages (the price of labor) is several times lower than its cost, which does not provide purchasing power population.

The causes of unemployment are extremely diverse and there are a huge number of them. In general, they are:

Structural shifts in the economy, expressed in the fact that the introduction of new technologies and equipment leads to a reduction in excess labor;

An economic recession or depression that forces employers to reduce the need for all resources, including labor;

Government and trade union wage policy: increase minimum size wage increases production costs and thus reduces the demand for labor;

Seasonal changes in the level of production in certain sectors of the economy;

Changes in the demographic structure of the population, in particular the growth of the working-age population, increases the demand for labor and increases the likelihood of unemployment.

Among the many problems facing any country in its transition to a market economy, one of the most acute is the threat of mass unemployment. 2008 was the year of the beginning of the global economic crisis, which has already affected the economies of all countries of the world, Russia, unfortunately, is no exception. Any economic crisis regardless of the reasons for its occurrence, it is always accompanied by a decline in production associated with a decrease in demand from potential buyers, as well as a shortage among enterprises Money for the implementation of projects. Manufacturers are forced to save and reduce production. One of the most common ways to save money is to reduce the workforce. With the reduction of people en masse, the unemployment rate increases. In October 2008, a wave of layoffs began across Russia. The weakest links were construction, metallurgy, the auto industry, as well as credit and banking institutions.

The consequences of unemployment are undoubtedly a serious problem. The socio-economic consequences of unemployment are considered, along with the problems of poverty and social instability, as one of the most acute global and national problems.

Very often, only the economic effect of unemployment is assessed in the form of the number of laid-off workers and the amount of benefits paid, while the social consequences, which are difficult to distinguish and are cumulative, are practically not assessed. However, the degree negative impact unemployment on the situation in the country depends on the specific parameters of the social situation. Thus, due to the low material well-being of Russians and the unemployed in particular, and also due to the incomparably higher social tension in society, the unemployment rate, which can cause social upheavals, is much lower in Russia than in the West. In this regard, there is a need for a detailed consideration of precisely the economic and social consequences of unemployment, as well as critical analysis and further adaptation to specific Russian conditions methods used abroad to study and assess the consequences of unemployment.

It is possible to offer a detailed classification of the most significant social (Table 1.1.) and economic (Table 1.2.) consequences of unemployment, considered from the point of view of negative and positive impact on the system.

Table 1.1 Social consequences of unemployment

Unemployment is a dangerous and political phenomenon. On the wave of mass unemployment, the most reactionary political regimes in the history of mankind arose (an example is the rise to power of Hitler in Germany and Pinochet in Chile).

The severity of the economic, social and political consequences of unemployment is the basis for including among the main macroeconomic functions of the state the policy of regulating the labor market and stabilizing employment.

1.3 The system of indicators characterizing unemployment

The main indicators of unemployment are: the overall unemployment rate, the registered unemployment rate and the duration of unemployment.

The unemployment rate is defined as the ratio of the number of unemployed to the number of employed and unemployed (as a percentage) according to the following formula (1):

UB \u003d B / (G + B) H 100% (1)

where UB is the unemployment rate;

Z - the number of employees;

B is the number of unemployed.

The level of registered unemployment, determined by the ratio of the number of unemployed registered with the employment service, to the number of economically active population:

U rb \u003d Ch rb / Ch zan x 100% (2)

Where U rb - the level of registered unemployment;

Ch rb - the number of registered unemployed;

Ch ean - number of economically active population;

This indicator is of an administrative nature. If a person came to the employment service, he was registered and registered. He comes to the employment service, it is noted that he is paid benefits. Such people are considered unemployed within the administrative system.

The duration of unemployment is characterized by the time spent without work and is defined as the average duration of being unemployed by all the unemployed or their individual categories or unemployed in certain territories, etc. When the duration of the job search period exceeds a calendar year, unemployment is considered dangerous, "stagnant".

According to the personal records of those who applied for help in finding employment, the total duration of the employment of citizens (man-days) can be determined. The duration of employment is calculated for all citizens employed in the reporting year, based on the data on the date of deregistration due to employment and on the day of registration of the applicant for employment. Based on this indicator, it is possible to determine the average duration of employment of citizens per year, using formula (3):

Similarly, for all unemployed employed in the reporting year, the total duration of employment of the unemployed (man-days) is calculated. At the same time, the duration of each person's job search is considered from the day a person is registered as "unemployed" until deregistration due to his employment.

Further, this indicator can be used to calculate the average duration of employment of the unemployed in days (by dividing it by the total number of unemployed employed in the reporting year). For predictive calculations of the number of unemployed, the level of appeal of the population to the employment service bodies is analyzed. The intensity of the demand for labor force can be estimated through the number of requests for employment per 1000 working-age population of working age.

The level of general unemployment, which is defined as the share of the unemployed in the economically active population (EAP) at the beginning (end) of the period or on average per year:

Quite often, the unemployment rate is defined as the proportion of the unemployed in the total labor force. The unemployment rate found in this way is lower in magnitude than that considered earlier (in % of EAN). Between them there is approximately the following relationship:

Unemployment rate in workforce= unemployment rate in % of EAN*

*share of EAN in labor resources (6)

The given interrelation of indicators is valid only in general. In some cases, their violations are possible if the unemployed include a large proportion of people of incapacitated age (for example, pensioners who are looking for work and ready to start it), because the age limits for the categories of labor resources and the economically active population do not coincide. However, in most cases the given equalities hold.

The sum of indicators of the levels of employment and unemployment in the labor force gives the share of the economically active population in the labor force. Missing to 100 percent - economically inactive population, which is not part of the labor force. Since the number of economically active population, the number of employed and unemployed are related additively, the dynamics of these indicators is characterized as follows:

where K e is the growth rate of the economically active population;

K s and K b - coefficients of growth in the number of employed and unemployed;

Y s 0 and Y b 0 are the levels of employment and unemployment in the base period.

The rate of dynamics of the total number of unemployed is determined by the indicators of growth rates. Changes in the unemployment rate, although they can be measured by growth rates, it is better to characterize them in the form of absolute increases expressed in percentage points. The change in points of the unemployment rate can be determined based on the model of the dynamics of the economically active population:

where DU b is the absolute change in the unemployment rate, expressed in percentage points.

As a rule, the unemployment rate calculated according to the methodology of the ILO on the basis of sample surveys is 3-6 times higher than the level registered with the State Employment Service of the Russian Federation. The differences between these indicators are even more noticeable if we take into account the composition of the unemployed by gender. An assessment of the significance of such a difference can be given using the Fisher F-test, if we consider the sample materials before spreading them to the general population:

F = D fact / D rest (9)

where D fact and D residual are the factor and residual variances per one degree of freedom.

To determine these variances, the following formulas (10.11) can be used, taking into account the rule for adding variances of an alternative feature:

where k is the number of population groups by sex,

p j - the share of the unemployed who applied to the employment service in the total number of unemployed (separately among men and among women);

p is the average share of the unemployed who applied to the employment service as a whole for the survey;

n j - the number of unemployed - separately for men and women;

n is the total number of unemployed.

The factor dispersion characterizes the gender differences in the level of unemployed people applying to the employment service. The residual variance estimates the variation in the proportion of unemployed who applied to the employment service, regardless of the gender of citizens. So, if F - the actual criterion exceeds the table value, then the composition of the unemployed by sex causes significant differences in the level of unemployment officially registered in the employment services.

Data from the current statistics of employment services on the employment of the population are used to estimate the total number of unemployed in the periods between surveys of the population on employment problems. To calculate the number of unemployed in the months between two surveys, an interpolation of the ratio of the number of unemployed obtained from the survey data and the number of unemployed population recorded in the employment service on the corresponding date is used. The method of such calculations may be different depending on the accepted concept of interpolation.

First, it is determined how the ratio of the total number of unemployed, obtained according to the survey data, and the number of unemployed population registered with the employment service has changed over the period between the last two surveys.

C n \u003d x n / y n; C 0 = x 0 / y 0 ; ? \u003d C n -C 0; ?=?/t,

where x n and x 0 - the total number of unemployed according to the last two surveys;

y n and y 0 - the number of unemployed population registered with the employment service;

C n and C 0 - the ratio of the total number of unemployed;

Change in these ratios between the last two surveys;

Change in the ratio between two surveys on average per month;

t is the number of months between two adjacent surveys.

If we assume that this ratio increases by the same amount every month, then the total number of unemployed at the end of the month under consideration is determined as:

where t is the serial number of the month after the date of the previous survey;

Y t is the number of the unemployed population not registered with the employment service at the end of the month t under consideration.

Another method of interpolating the number of unemployed between two survey dates is also possible, assuming that the monthly ratio of the two sources of information on the number of unemployed changes not in arithmetic, but in geometric progression (by the same number of times). To this end, we determine the overall growth factor of this ratio:

k 0 \u003d C n / C 0 (13)

those. growth rate of data ratio for the period between two adjacent surveys.

The average monthly growth rate of this ratio can be found as:

Then, assuming that this ratio changes monthly by the same number of times - k, the number of unemployed in month t can be estimated using formula (15):

Theoretically, both variants of interpolation are equal, although in practice the first method is preferred as a simpler one.

Statistics studies the composition of the population looking for work and applied to the employment service by sex, age and education. As a result of the activities of the employment service, the number of citizens employed by its bodies in the total number of applicants is determined. The largest share among the employed is made up of unemployed citizens as the persons most in need of support.

For all unemployed employed in the reporting year, the total duration of employment of the unemployed (man-days) is calculated. At the same time, the duration of the job search for each person is considered from the day a person is registered as unemployed until deregistration due to his employment. Further, this indicator can be used to calculate the average duration of employment of the unemployed in days (by dividing it by the total number of unemployed employed in the reporting year).

For predictive calculations of the number of unemployed, the level of appeal of the population to the employment service bodies is analyzed. The intensity of the demand for labor can be estimated through the number of requests for employment per 1000 working-age people of working age, i.e.

The effectiveness of the work of the employment service bodies for the employment of the population largely depends on the reliability and timeliness of information from enterprises about the need for labor, about job vacancies. Currently, the load of the unemployed population per one vacancy is determined by the regions of Russia. This indicator captures the scale of tension in the labor market.

By means of statistics in data analysis sample survey on employment issues and from the employment service bodies according to the annex to the form No. 1-T "Report on employment and employment of the population" receive the social composition of the unemployed. The report contains information on the qualitative composition of the unemployed (their distribution by sex, age, level of education, reasons for dismissal, presence of children, profession, specialty). The study of the qualitative composition of the unemployed contributes to the development of a more effective employment policy (subsidies for expanding jobs, a system for training and retraining the workforce, encouraging entrepreneurial activity, etc.)

The educational composition of the unemployed can be compared with that of the employed. From the standpoint of the professional orientation of the unemployed, it is necessary to study their age composition.

To predict employment and unemployment, information on the duration of unemployment is needed. Based on the distribution of the unemployed, it is possible to approximately determine the average duration of unemployment as a weighted arithmetic average:

where T i - the time of absence of work in the i-th group;

N i - the number of unemployed in the i-th group.

The median duration of unemployment is determined by the formula (17):

Me \u003d x 0 + i * (N Me -S Me-1) / f Me (17)

where x 0 is the lower limit of the median interval, i.e. the first interval with an accumulated frequency of 50% or more;

i - the value of the median interval;

N Me - serial number of the median;

S Me -1 - accumulated frequency premedian interval;

f Me - local frequency of the median interval.

This indicator characterizes the fact that about half of the unemployed are looking for work more than the median found.

Job search time is quite closely related to the age of the unemployed and differs significantly by gender. The coefficients of correlation and determination are calculated. The significance of these differences is confirmed by the value of Fisher's F-test, which should be higher than the tabular value. The calculation of the F-criterion is carried out according to the formula (18):

F= r 2 / (1-r 2)* (n-2) (18)

where n is the number of age groups.

In order to correctly assess the situation on the labor market, it is necessary to analyze the reasons that led citizens to the status of unemployed (in connection with the release due to staff reduction, liquidation of the organization, own business, with dismissal of their own free will). Various reasons for the reduction of jobs determine the appropriate system of measures for the social protection of the unemployed. At the same time, unequal real opportunities for assistance in finding employment, with significant differences in situations on the labor market, lead to a strong differentiation of regions in terms of the level of officially registered unemployment.

2. Analysis of the composition and structure of the unemployed population in the Russian Federation

Unemployment has become commonplace for some categories of the population. In 2009, 67.7 million people in the economically active population were classified as employed economic activity and 7.1 million unemployed are people who are unemployed or gainful employment, looking for work and ready to start it, and in accordance with the criteria of the International Labor Organization (ILO) are classified as unemployed. February 2009 the economically active population was lower than in November 2008 by 1.1 million people, or by 1.5%. This reduction is completely determined by the decrease in the employed population. The number of unemployed, in accordance with the methodology of the ILO, in February 2009 was 1.8 million people, or a third higher than in November 2008. and February 2008. Unemployment rate, calculated as the ratio of the number of unemployed to the number of economically active population, in February 2009. amounted to 9.5% and was 2.5-2.4 percentage points higher than in November 2008. and February 2008 (Table 2.1.)

Table 2.1 Number of economically active population.

	average	According to quarterly surveys (not seasonally adjusted)	February 2009 increase, decrease (-) compared to
		February 2008	November 2008	February 2009	February 2008	November 2008
Thousand people
Economically active population aged 15-72 (labor force)
unemployed
In percentages
Level of economic activity
Employment rate (employed to population aged 15-72)
Unemployment rate (unemployed to the number of economically active population)

Number of unemployed and unemployment rate in February 2009 were on average one third lower than in February 1999, when their maximum value was noted.

Since 1995, the annual share of the unemployed in the economy of the active population has been in the range of 5-13%. Let's start with an analysis of their age composition, according to Table 2.2. and figure 2.1., clearly showing us the structure of the distribution of the unemployed by age groups.

Table 2.2 Distribution of the unemployed by age groups

	Total thousand people	Including by age groups, in % of the total number
		the youth	Including			Pre-retirement	pension

Figure 2.1 Structure of the unemployed by age groups

Attention is drawn to the fact that throughout the past years, the leading age group in the composition of the unemployed, according to the data of annual surveys, was young people. It occupied 37-49% of the total number of unemployed, while 30-39-year-olds accounted for 19-28%, and 40-49 (54)-year-olds - 15-28%. Although compared to 1998. Among these three groups, the number of unemployed youth decreased the most by (1.8 million people) in 2008, it amounted to 1.7 million people and was respectively 1.9 and 1.5 times more than in groups of 30- 39 and 40-40 (54) - year olds.

Consider the distribution of the number of unemployed by level of education, according to the data in Table 2.3.

Table 2.3 Distribution of the number of unemployed by level of education.

	Unemployed - total	including education
		higher professional	secondary vocational	initial vocational	average (full) general	basic general	do not have basic general education

In accordance with the data in Table 2.3, we see that among the unemployed who do not have a vocational education, persons with a secondary general education significantly predominate. Their annual share in the composition of persons without vocational education ranged from 64.8 - 71.7%, and in the composition of the total number of unemployed - within 33.1 - 37%. There is a noticeable influx of unemployed with higher professional education, if in 2004 the percentage of unemployed with higher education was 11%, then in 2009 it was already equal to 14.9%.

The distribution of the number of unemployed may also depend on the duration of the job search.

Table 2.4 Distribution of the unemployed by duration of job search in the Russian Federation, %

	Unemployed - total	including looking for a job	Average job search time, months
		up to 3 months	3 to 6 months	6 to 12 months	over a year

Figure 2.2 The structure of the unemployed by the duration of the job search.

Looking at Table 2.4 and Figure 2.2, one can see that the majority of unemployed citizens have been looking for work for more than 1 year. But there are significant changes here. In the period from 2004 to 2009, the percentage of the population that has been looking for work for more than 1 year has been constantly changing. From 2004 to 2006, the percentage of citizens in this category increased and, reaching a maximum of 40.2%, began to decline, and by 2009, the level of unemployed people employed in search of work for more than one year was equal to 28.7%.

Among citizens who have been looking for work for less than three months, the percentage of unemployed reaches a maximum in 2008 and is equal to 34.8%, from 3 to 6 months - in 1995 26.3%, from 6 to 12 months - in 2005 20.0 %.

The noted differences are largely due to the specifics of the work of the employment service, aimed primarily and mainly at assisting the unemployed who turn to its services in their employment. At the same time, a significant role is played by the need for the unemployed to observe the established procedure for their communication with employees of the service and their reaction to proposals from this service. It is also important that you can be registered with the status of an unemployed person for no more than 18 months, and the period for paying unemployment benefits is limited for this period to a total of 12 months.

3. Statistical study of unemployment in Russia

3.1 Analysis of the dynamics of the unemployment rate

The process of development in statistics is called dynamics, and the system of indicators characterizing this process over time is called a series of dynamics.

Time series are the values ​​of statistical indicators that are presented in a certain chronological sequence. Each time series contains two components:

1) indicators of time periods (years, quarters, months, days or dates);

2) indicators characterizing the object under study for time periods or on the corresponding dates, which are called the levels of the series.

To identify patterns or trends in the development of unemployment, the following methods of processing time series are used:

1. Method of smoothing by means of enlargement of intervals in time.

2. Alignment of the time series using the moving average method.

3. Method of analytical alignment.

Coarse intervals - the easiest way. It consists in converting the initial series of dynamics into larger time periods, which makes it possible to more clearly identify the effect of the main trend (main factors) of changing levels.

Calculations of indicators of unemployment dynamics in the Russian Federation are presented in Table 3.1.

Table 3.1 Indicators of the dynamics of the level of the unemployed in the Russian Federation.

	Number of unemployed, thousand people	Absolute growth	Growth rate, %	Growth rate, %	Absolute content 1% increase
			Basic		Basic		Basic

To express the absolute rate of growth (decrease) in the level of a series of dynamics, a statistical indicator is calculated - an absolute increase (

Absolute growth (chain):

where is the level of the i-th period,

the level of the previous period.

Absolute growth (basic):

where is the level of the i-th period,

base period level.

The intensity of changes in the levels of a series of dynamics is estimated by the ratio of the current series to the previous or basic one, which is always a positive number. This indicator is called

growth rate. It is expressed as a percentage, i.e.

The growth rate can also be expressed as a coefficient:

In this case, it shows how many times the given level of the series is greater than the level of the base year, or what part of it it is.

To express the change in the magnitude of the absolute increase in the levels of a series of dynamics in relative terms, the growth rate is determined, which is calculated as the ratio of the absolute increase to the previous or base level.

The absolute value of one percent growth is defined as the result of dividing absolute growth by the corresponding growth rate, expressed as a percentage. Or

The calculation of this indicator makes sense only on a chain basis.

Judging by the calculated data, we can say that the absolute value of 1% increase in unemployment in the Russian Federation for the period from 2000 to 2008 was declining, and since 2009 there has been an increase in the indicator.

Particular attention should be paid to the methods for calculating the average indicators of the time series, which are a generalizing characteristic of its absolute levels, the absolute speed and intensity of changes in the levels of the time series.

Calculate average annual level number of unemployed:

means for the period 2000-2009. the annual number of unemployed amounted to 5778.97 thousand people.

Unemployment for 2000-2009 decreased annually by an average of 3.8%.

The elimination of random fluctuations in the values ​​of the levels of the series is carried out by finding "averaged" values. Ways to eliminate random factors are divided into two more groups:

1) Methods of "mechanical" smoothing of fluctuations by averaging the values ​​of the series relative to other, adjacent, levels of the series.

2) Methods of "analytical" alignment, i.e., determining first the functional expression of the trend of the series, and then the new, calculated values ​​of the series.

The methods of "mechanical" smoothing include:

· Method of averaging over two halves of a series, when the series is divided into two parts. Then, two values ​​of the average levels of the series are calculated, according to which the trend of the series is graphically determined. It is obvious that such a trend does not fully reflect the main regularity of the development of the phenomenon.

· The method of enlargement of intervals, in which the length of time intervals is increased, and new values ​​of the levels of the series are calculated.

· Moving average method. This method is used to characterize the development trend of the studied statistical population and is based on the calculation of the average levels of the series for a certain period.

To identify the trend, we will enlarge the intervals up to 3 years and calculate the total and average number of unemployed using the arithmetic mean:

Table 3.2 Enlarged series of dynamics

Using the interval enlargement method, we obtained the following data presented in Figure 3.1.

Figure 3.1 Dynamics of the unemployed population for certain periods of time

Calculate the average annual number of unemployed:

In this series, one can observe a decrease in the number of unemployed citizens in the Russian Federation over the past three years by 2204.9 thousand people.

Another technique is the moving average method. The essence of this method is to replace absolute data with arithmetic averages for certain periods. Averages are calculated using the sliding method, i.e., by gradually excluding the first level from the accepted sliding period and including the next one.

For a clear manifestation of the trend in the number of unemployed in the Russian Federation, it is necessary to calculate the moving average with an interval of 3 years. Data in Table 3.3

Table 3.3 Series of dynamics

	Total unemployed, thousand people	moving average

Using the moving average method, we obtained the data presented in Figure 3.2

Figure 3.2 Dynamics of the average unemployment rate.

According to the obtained series of dynamics, one can also trace the decrease in unemployment in the Russian Federation.

The drawback of the method of smoothing by moving averages lies in the conventionality of determining smoothed levels for points at the beginning and end of the series. They are obtained by special methods - the calculation of the arithmetic weighted average.

Based on the data obtained with the moving average method, we can apply the following method - analytical alignment. The essence of which is to find an equation that expresses the pattern of change in a phenomenon as a function of time.

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It amounted to 43.9 thousand people (an increase of 0.2 thousand people since the beginning of the year, as of 01.01.2010 - 43.7 thousand people, as of 01.04.2009 - 50.5 thousand people).

GENDER AND AGE COMPOSITION

The number of unemployed citizens is dominated by women 53.5% or 23.5 thousand people. Compared with the beginning of the year, the share of the unemployed decreased by 2.0 percentage points, the number - by 0.7 thousand people (as of 01.01.2010 - 55.5% or 24.2 thousand people, as of 01.04.2009 - 54.9% or 27.7 thousand people, as of 01.01.2009 - 62.5% or 22.6 thousand people).

The proportion of women among the unemployed is declining.

As of April 1, 2010, 20.4 thousand men were registered with the employment service, a significant part of whom are not competitive in the labor market: 8.7% of men (1.8 thousand people) are disabled, 4.9% (1.0 thousand people) are near retirement age (2 years before retirement), 7.3% (1.5 thousand people) have no work experience, 4.3% (0.8 thousand people) are under the age of 20 years, 1.5% (0.3 thousand people - released from institutions that carry out punishment in the form of deprivation of liberty.

Among the unemployed, 30.7% (13.5 thousand people) are young people aged 16-29. Compared to the beginning of the year, the share of the unemployed decreased by 0.6 percentage points, the number - by 0.2 thousand people (as of 01.01.2010 - 31.3% or 13.7 thousand people, as of 01.04.2009 - 34.3% or 17.3 thousand people).

Most of the unemployed youth (7.9 thousand people - 58.7% of the unemployed youth or 18.0% of the total number of unemployed) belong to the age group of 16-24 years (most of them do not have professional education or work experience) . The share of young people aged 16-24 in the total number of unemployed is decreasing (as of 01.01.2010 - 18.6%, as of 01.04.2009 - 21.4%).

The proportion of young people among the unemployed is declining.

faces pre-retirement age(2 years before retirement) make up 6.0% (2.7 thousand people) (Compared to the beginning of the year, the share of the unemployed decreased by 0.2 percentage points, 6.2% or 2.7 thousand people, as of 01.04.2009 - 5.9% or 3.0 thousand people, as of 01.01.2009 - 6.8% or 2.5 thousand people).

The share of people of pre-retirement age among the unemployed is declining)

HEALTH DISTRIBUTION

Among the unemployed, a considerable part is occupied by citizens with limited ability to work. As of April 1, 2010, the number of unemployed disabled people was 2.9 thousand people, or 6.7% of all unemployed citizens registered with the employment service. Compared with the beginning of the year, the share of the unemployed decreased by 0.2 percentage points, the number - by 59 people (as of 01.01.2010 - 6.9% or 3.0 thousand people, as of 01.04.2009 - 6.7% or 3.4 thousand people, as of 01.01.2009 - 8.5% or 3.1 thousand people).

The share of disabled people in the number of unemployed citizens is declining.

DISTRIBUTION BY RESIDENCE

As of 04/01/2010 in the countryside the region is home to 16.8 thousand people registered as unemployed (38.2% of the unemployed in the region). Compared with the beginning of the year, the proportion of rural residents among the unemployed increased by 0.6 percentage points, the number - by 0.4 thousand people (as of 01.01.2010 - 37.6% or 16.4 thousand people, as of 01.04. 2009 - 37.3% or 18.8 thousand people, as of 01.01.2009 - 42.5% or 15.4 thousand people).

The share of villagers in the number of unemployed citizens has increased since the beginning of the year.

EDUCATIONAL COMPOSITION

Those with a higher professional education amounted to 13.1% or 5.8 thousand people. Compared to the beginning of the year, their share has decreased compared to the same period 2009 - increased (as of 01.01.2010 - 14.5%, as of 01.04.2009 - 11.7%);

having a secondary vocational education amounted to 20.1% or 8.8 thousand people. Compared to the beginning of the year, their share decreased, compared to the same period in 2009 - increased (as of 01.01.2010 - 20.4%, as of 01.04.2009 - 18.6%);

having an initial vocational education amounted to 18.5% or 8.1 thousand people. Compared to the beginning of the year, their share increased, compared to the same period in 2009 - decreased (as of 01.01.2010 - 18.1%, as of 01.04.2009 - 18.9%).

The share of persons with vocational education (51.7%) decreased since the beginning of the year (by 01.01.2.9%), compared to the same period in 2009 increased (by 01.04.2.2%).

Among the unemployed, the share of graduates of vocational education institutions (within a year after graduation)(2.0% or 0.9 thousand people) decreased by 1.0 percentage points since the beginning of the year (as of 01.01.2010 - 3.0%), compared to the same period in 2009 - by 0.3 percentage points ( as of 01.04.2009 - 2.3%).

The share of graduates of vocational education institutions among the unemployed is decreasing.

Having an average (full) general education amounted to 29.1% or 12.8 thousand people. Compared to the beginning of the year, their share increased, compared to the same period in 2009, it decreased (as of 01.01.2010 - 28.9%, as of 01.04.2009 - 30.3%);

having no average education amounted to 19.2% or 8.4 thousand people (as of 01.01.2010 - 18.2%).

Bywork experience and qualifications

Of the unemployed (as of 01.04.2010), 24.5% (10.8 thousand people) apply for positions of employees, 65.6% (28.8 thousand people) are looking for work in the working profession. At the same time, among the unemployed with working professions, 38.0% were unskilled workers.

8.0% of the unemployed have no work experience (they are looking for work for the first time) (3.5 thousand people, as of 01.01. 0% unemployed (1.7 thousand people).

The share of previously unemployed citizens among the unemployed is decreasing.

Since the beginning of the year, the number of unemployed has increased the share of those who, by the time they applied to the employment service, had a long (more than a year) break from work (from 25.7% (11.2 thousand people) as of 01.01.2010 to 26.6% (11.7 thousand people) as of 01.04.2010). During 2009, there was a decrease in the share of this category of citizens (36.4% as of 01.01.2009).

Unemployment in its general mass is of great interest and the need for action on the part of the state. However, the unemployed themselves deserve no less attention. Who are they and who can we rightfully consider unemployed?

Let us give the interpretation of the unemployed given by M.G. Nazarov in the textbook "Course of socio-economic statistics". This author says that the unemployed are persons who have reached a certain age, adopted in the national legislation as the lower limit of working age, who during the period under review did not have a job (profitable occupation), but were looking for it and were ready to start work immediately or within a period determined by national law. Note that the authors of other sources are in full agreement with M.G. Nazarov on the issue of determining the unemployed.

Speaking of looking for a job, I mean actively looking for it. That is, the unemployed must apply to public or private employment services or directly to the administration of enterprises and organizations, place advertisements in the press, use personal connections or make attempts to organize their own business.

In addition, the unemployed include persons studying in the direction of employment services. Pupils and students, the disabled and pensioners are counted as unemployed if they are actively looking for work and are ready to start it.

The criteria described above for classifying as unemployed correspond to the methodology for determining the number of unemployed proposed by international organization labor (ILO). The calculation of the unemployed according to the ILO method can be carried out only on the basis of periodic sample surveys (population surveys) on employment problems organized by the State Statistics Committee.

But also among the unemployed are persons who are not employed, registered with the employment service as job seekers, and also recognized as unemployed.

The Ministry of Labor and Social Development keeps records of the unemployed through the public employment services. In accordance with the law of the Russian Federation “On Employment in the Russian Federation” dated April 19, 1991, the unemployed are able-bodied citizens who do not have a job, are looking for work, are ready to start it and are duly registered with the employment service. This is how the number of officially unemployed is determined.

Speaking of unemployment, it is impossible not to note the composition of the unemployed themselves. The social composition of the unemployed by means of statistics is obtained by analyzing the data of a sample survey on employment problems and from the employment service bodies according to the annex to form No. 1-T (employment) “Report on employment and employment of the population” for the year. The report contains information on the qualitative composition of the unemployed (their distribution by sex, age, level of education, reasons for dismissal, presence of children, profession, specialty). The study of the qualitative composition of the unemployed contributes to the development of a more effective employment policy (subsidies for expanding jobs, a system for training and retraining the workforce, encouraging entrepreneurial activity, etc.).

In order to correctly assess the situation on the labor market, it is necessary to analyze the reasons that led citizens to the status of unemployed.

An analysis of the distribution of the unemployed by gender refutes the very common thesis that unemployment has a “feminine” face. In the total number of unemployed, the share of men has always exceeded the share of women; in 2000, the share of unemployed men was 54.3%. However, women prevailed among the official unemployed - 69.7% See: Statistics: textbook / I.I. Eliseeva, I.I. Egorova and others; under. ed. Prof. I.I. Eliseeva. - M.: TK Velby, Publishing House Prospekt, 2004. - p. 306. This indicates that women experience more difficulties in solving the problem of employment, and unemployed men more often try to find a job on their own.

The unequal position of men and women in the labor market is also evidenced by the fact that, despite a higher level of education, the work of unemployed women remains unclaimed. According to a November 2000 survey, 18.5% of unemployed women and 12.4% of unemployed men had higher and incomplete higher education, 26.2% and 19.3%, respectively, had secondary vocational education.

The age composition of the unemployed reflects the problems of youth employment, which is of particular social significance. The average age of the unemployed is 35.1 years. The share of young people under 30 years of age is 37.7% of the total number of unemployed, while their share in the total number of employed is 23.6%. The share of older unemployed (over 50) is much lower than their share in the number of employed (12.2% and 17.9%, respectively). Therefore, the presence of work experience is one of the factors that increase the likelihood of employment. At the same time, in 2000, 18.1% of the unemployed had no work experience.

The situation on the labor market is characterized by an increase in the number of long-term unemployed people and their share in the total number of unemployed. Under the duration of unemployment, V.N.Salin, together with E.P. Shpakovskaya in the textbook "Socio-economic statistics" understand the duration of the period during which the unemployed is looking for work. Distinguish between the duration of incomplete unemployment - the time from the start of the job search to the period under consideration (the moment of the survey), and the duration of completed unemployment - the time from the start of the job search to the moment of employment. Long-term unemployment refers to unemployment for 12 months or more. Specific gravity long-term unemployed is constantly growing.

Along with information about the unemployed, employment services collect information about the needs of enterprises and organizations in the labor force. In particular, the need for employees declared by enterprises and organizations is determined - the number of vacancies (vacancies). Based on these data, the demand for labor is calculated - the total number of jobs equal to the sum of the actual number of employees and the number of vacancies.

It should be noted that in the existing system of information support of the labor market (not only in Russia, but also in almost all CIS countries), the weakest link is the statistics of demand for work. At present, the analysis of the balance of labor supply and demand is usually based on data from employment services, although it is known that information about vacancies reported by enterprises to these services (i.e., applications for labor) is clearly underestimated. It is advisable to build the study of demand statistics on the basis of information collected directly by the authorities state statistics from enterprises and organizations, while achieving the reliability of information on the basis of checks, questionnaire surveys, etc.

The labor market is balanced if the number of vacancies in it approximately coincides with the number of unemployed. Such a state does not yet mean the achievement of professional and qualification compliance, but only indicates a quantitative coincidence of supply and demand, to assess which the coefficient of tension in the labor market is calculated - the ratio of the number of unemployed to the number of declared vacancies.

In the context of sectoral restructuring, the formation of a mixed economy, and technological progress, one of the prerequisites for the effective functioning of the labor market and the economy as a whole is labor mobility. The category of mobility reflects the totality of different types of labor movement in the labor market: professional, qualification movement, movement of labor between enterprises, industries, regions. The guarantee of mobility is the polyvalence of the worker. A polyvalent worker has professional training corresponding to the stage of development of production, is able to work not only in his own, but also in related specialties, quickly adapt to changing production conditions, master new skills and technologies, quickly respond to changes in demand for labor, its price, etc. .

The combination of the worker's polyvalence, mobility and good health is responsible modern requirements to the labor force and is the main criterion for the competitiveness of an employee in the labor market.

Since 2001, the Ministry of Labor and Social Development of the Russian Federation has introduced the practice of identifying subjects of the Russian Federation that belong to territories with a tense situation on the labor market. The procedure for identifying such territories is provided for by the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated November 2, 2000 No. 875 “On the rules for classifying territories as territories with a tense situation on the labor market”.

Goskomstat annually until March 15 presents data for the Russian Federation as a whole and for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for 2 recent years according to six indicators:

employment rate in % of the total population aged 15-72;

the level of general unemployment (unemployment according to the ILO);

the level of registered unemployment;

share of the unemployed who have been looking for work for 12 months or more in the total number of unemployed;

the share of part-time workers and those on leave at the initiative of the administration in the total number of employees (for large and medium-sized organizations);

Coefficient of tension in the labor market.

The regions of the Russian Federation are ranked according to the values ​​of the indicators, i.e. they are assigned a number that is in a certain dependence on the value of the indicator: the larger the value of the indicator, the greater the serial number. Only indicators of the level of employment are ranked in inverse proportion to the magnitude. If the value of one indicator is equal in different territories, they are assigned the same serial number. For each subject of the Russian Federation and for the Russian Federation as a whole, according to the arithmetic mean simple formula, the average serial number (general indicator) is calculated.

The level of tension in the labor market is determined by dividing the average serial number (average rank) for a given territory by a similar general indicator for the Russian Federation as a whole. If the average serial number for the territory exceeds the general indicator for the Russian Federation by more than 1.5 times, then this subject of the Federation is considered a territory with a tense situation on the labor market.

The introduced settlement procedure is intended to contribute to the development of practical measures, a targeted, targeted policy to stabilize the situation on the labor market of specific territories, taking into account regional characteristics and interests.

When calculating the unemployed, one should pay attention to the problem that has appeared in Russia and a number of other countries and which needs to be solved. We are talking about employees of enterprises sent on the so-called administrative leave, which can be either with partial pay or without pay. At the same time, the duration of this vacation is quite significant. In this case, although these individuals have formal ties to the employer, many of them are looking for another job and are ready to start it.

An analysis of foreign experience shows that in other countries there are also people who are in a similar situation. But at the same time, the duration of administrative leave does not exceed 2-3 weeks, a maximum of one month. After that, persons are counted in the category of unemployed.

Considering that persons on administrative leave are often in a more difficult situation than those who are officially recognized as unemployed and are entitled to unemployment benefits, appropriate adjustments should be made to the definition of unemployment, which would also allow persons with formal ties with employers, since they are on administrative leave, after a certain period (for example, a month) are counted as unemployed.

Based on the foregoing, we see that the composition of the unemployed is diverse, and it can be viewed through the prism of various categories, and the number of unemployed may vary depending on the method of calculating the unemployed. So, for example, the number of officially unemployed is usually much lower than the number of unemployed, determined by the methodology of the ILO. And as noted by domestic and foreign scientists, the adopted system of accounting for unemployment in our country does not reflect the actual trends in the development of the Russian labor market, since the majority of the unemployed are not registered at labor exchanges, preferring to look for work on their own or resorting to the services of non-state intermediary structures (recruitment agencies, etc.). .). In addition, the labor market in the Russian Federation is not balanced and, in the conditions of the global crisis, it is not yet possible to count on an equal number of unemployed and vacancies. We can assume that at present Russia has a significant number of territories with a tense situation in the labor market. And the problem of increasing the number of administrative unpaid leaves today is becoming more acute.