Actual unemployment rate formula example. Unemployment. Types of unemployment. How is the Unemployment rate and GDP level related?

To the unemployed includes persons of the age established for measuring the economic activity of the population, who, during the period under review, simultaneously met the following criteria:

did not have a job (profitable occupation);

engaged in job search, i.e. applied to the state or commercial employment service, used or placed advertisements in the press, directly addressed the administration of the organization (employer), used personal connections, etc. or took steps to start their own business;

were ready to start work during the survey week.

Schoolchildren, students, pensioners and the disabled are counted as unemployed if they were looking for work and were ready to start it.

The unemployed registered with state institutions of the employment service include able-bodied citizens who do not have a job and earnings (labor income), living in the territory of the Russian Federation, registered with the employment service at their place of residence in order to find a suitable job, looking for a job and ready to start her.

Unemployment rate- the ratio of the number of unemployed of a certain age group to the number of economically active population corresponding age group, %.

Unemployment rate formula

Unemployment rate is the share of the unemployed in the total labor force.

It is measured as a percentage and is calculated using the formula:

31. Types of unemployment

1. Frictional - the unemployed who are between jobs and it is customary to refer to this category: seasonal workers, people who change jobs, people who are looking for work 1 time. Objective unemployment.

2. Structural unemployment - workers who lost their jobs due to the obsolescence of their profession or liquidation: associated with the renewal of production technology and require retraining or advanced training; objective unemployment.

The sum of the two types of unemployment is the natural rate of unemployment.

3. Cyclical unemployment - occurs in the economy at the time of the onset of an economic crisis or a decline in production; The crisis starts if General Unemployment Level > Natural Unemployment Level. Periodically appears and disappears. Ur.cycle.bezr \u003d Ur.vol. - Ur eats.

4. Hidden unemployment - the employed population who does not work and receives no wages. Identify species that cannot be counted.

1. Employed who are not full time or weekly.

Employees on forced leave without pay.

2. Hidden unemployed who are officially employed, but at the same time perform types of work with a skill level lower than the qualification that they performed.

FULL EMPLOYMENT - the presence of a sufficient number of jobs to satisfy the demands for work of the entire working-age population of the country, the practical absence of long-term unemployment, the ability to provide those who wish to work with jobs that correspond to their professional orientation, education, and work experience.

32. The main negative factor of unemployment This is an unreleased product. When the economy fails to create enough jobs for all who are willing and able to work, the potential production of goods and services is lost forever.

Unequal burden. Behind the general figures lies the fact that the costs of unemployment are distributed unequally; With an increase in unemployment, the working day and wages of various categories of workers change disproportionately.

First, the unemployment rate among women is higher than among men;

Secondly, the unemployment rate among young people (graduates of schools and universities) is much higher than among adults;

Thirdly, at present in Russia the demand for workers in the age group over 45-50 years is very limited. This means that people in the older age groups are the highest affected by unemployment more than other categories of workers.

Non-economic costs of unemployment. History convincingly shows that mass unemployment leads to rapid, sometimes very turbulent, social and political change. Examples of such changes are Hitler's rise to power amid widespread unemployment and President Roosevelt's New Deal during the Great Depression of the 1930s. For Russia, social tension is especially pronounced in labor-surplus regions, primarily in the Caucasian republics. Crime is growing especially rapidly in conditions of unemployment, the number of suicides, cardiovascular and mental diseases is growing intensively, the number of alcoholics and drug addicts is growing.

A. Oken mathematically expressed the relationship between the unemployment rate and the lag in the volume of GNP. This dependency, known as Okun's law , shows that if the actual unemployment rate exceeds the natural rate by 1%, then the lag in GDP is 2.5%. For example, during the recession (2011) in the United States, the unemployment rate reached 9.5%, or 3.5% above the natural rate, i.e. 6%. Multiplying these 3.5% by the Okun coefficient (2.5), we get that in 2011 the gap in GDP was 8.75%.

It should be noted that the dependence derived by A. Oken is empirical, so it can be used with some caution, since the error for different countries and time periods may be too large.

Okun's law: other things being equal, the excess of the general unemployment rate over its natural rate by 1% leads to a reduction in GDP by 2.5%.

33. Fighting unemployment- a set of measures to reduce unemployment. Methods of combating unemployment are determined by the authorities of a particular country. For the effective implementation of these methods, it is required to identify the factors that determine the ratio of demand and supply of labor. It is obvious that only a factor-oriented policy of influencing the labor market can bring results. Reducing unemployment is an extremely difficult task, as there are many types of it. Therefore, it is impossible to work out a single way to deal with unemployment, and any state has to use different methods to solve this problem. The measures described below are considered in relation to market economy, but some can be applied within the framework of a command economy or only in it, as will be specially noted.

Find out the number of unemployed people."Unemployed" people are defined by the federal government as people who are able to work and who have been actively looking for work in the last four weeks.

Find out the number of employed people. The employed population includes people who work full time. The same number includes people who are self-employed if they have a part-time job or if they are in the family business for more than 15 hours a week, even if this work is unpaid. People who are on maternity leave, sabbatical or regular leave are also considered the working population as they have a job to which they can return.

Do not take into account people who are not regarded as a labor force. People not considered in the labor force are those who are not actively looking for work and those who have other types of employment, such as students, housewives or the disabled. The non-labor population also includes young people under 16 years of age and people in institutions such as a prison or nursing home for the elderly and disabled, people serving in the armed forces, retirees, students, and the disabled.

• It is important to know exactly who is included in the labor force, so as not to mistakenly take into account extra people in order not to distort the data in this way.

Often on TV we hear news about an increase or decrease in unemployment in a particular country or city. But does each of us understand what is meant? After all, the real state of affairs can be understood only by correctly realizing the significance of such an indicator as the calculation formula given below will contribute to a better understanding of the issue.

Causes of unemployment

Like it or not, but in any state there is a certain percentage of people who do not have a job at the moment. Even in the richest countries there is unemployment. There are a number of reasons for this.

Any most developed country and economy of the world finds a place for unemployment. Perhaps, only with the idea of ​​​​capitalism did the Soviet people believe that in the near future everyone would have a job and goods in stores would no longer be sold for money.

Unemployment can be due to a number of reasons. They can be divided into several groups:

Economic;

political;

Social;

Personal.

The economic group of reasons can include those that are associated with the specifics of the development of the economy of a particular region (country). If the state's production capacity is at zero, the economy collapses, enterprises stop, then it is natural that about full time population is out of the question. In this case, people simply have nowhere to work.

Political reasons are based on any government measures to regulate a particular sector of the economy. Sometimes politicians, when solving international issues, forget that they influence the lives of citizens within the country. Someone gets a job because of this, and someone loses.

The social group includes the causes of unemployment, independent of the economic or political vector of development. They are more influenced by prestige and fashion. For example, there may be 1,000 vacancies for the position of a cleaner, but because of their beliefs about the possibility of finding a more prestigious and better job, people remain unemployed at the moment.

The personal group of causes includes those that are associated with the individual qualities of people. After all, there are those who do not want to work at all, live on welfare, use alcoholic beverages and drugs, and it is simply impossible to force them to do anything for society in the existing legal field.

To calculate the correct statistics for unemployed people, a special unemployment formula is used. The unemployment rate, which can be calculated using it, determines the degree of unemployment of the economically active population. We will consider it further.

The following should also be noted. You can calculate the unemployment rate in different ways. The calculation formula in each method will be different. But mostly in statistics they use the unemployment rate

It is determined by the ratio of the total number of unemployed to the number of economically active population.

The unemployed are part of the labor force that can be employed in the production of goods or services, but for some reason are not involved in these processes.

Structural.

Friction.

Seasonal.

Structural unemployment

Its calculation formula is as follows:

Be \u003d Bstr + Bfr.

natural unemployment. What does the indicator say?

What does this indicator say? It is calculated when they want to know what the overall unemployment rate will be if the condition of full employment is met.



That is, if everyone who wanted could find a job. Accordingly, it can be seen that the formula of which is given above assumes the presence in the economy of only structural and frictional types of unemployment.

We can say that this indicator shows the situation that has developed in the labor market under ideal conditions, when the entire economically active population is employed in the production of goods or services.

Actual unemployment

Another main indicator is actual unemployment. It is calculated as the sum of all types of unemployment listed above, with the exception of natural. That is, the sum of structural, frictional, seasonal and cyclic - this will be the actual unemployment. The formula looks like this:

Bf \u003d Bstr + Bfr + Bs + Bts.

Actual unemployment essentially reflects the real state of affairs in the labor market. It can be greater than, equal to, or less than the natural rate of unemployment. The calculation formula shows that this indicator affects absolutely all types of unemployment, which means:

The actual level will be higher than natural unemployment if the economy is experiencing a slowdown in development.

The situation will be inversely proportional to the first if the economy picks up pace and jobs appear faster than people are being fired from their old jobs.

In fact, with a full understanding of the causes, types and factors, the unemployment calculation formula helps to give a real assessment of the employment of the population and the work of the government to provide decent jobs.



The unemployment rate has always characterized the state of the economy, and thanks to this indicator, one can draw a conclusion about where to strive further and what needs to be corrected in the economic vector of development.

One of the most acute and negative socio-economic phenomena - unemployment. A situation in which a significant part of the working-age population is looking for, but cannot find, a job is fraught with a number of serious consequences. In political and social terms, this is a great stress for society, leading to an increase in popular discontent. From the point of view of the economy, unemployment speaks of inefficient and incomplete use of labor and production resources. But with all this, it is impossible to completely get rid of unemployment, some natural level of unemployment will always remain.

Concept of unemployment and economically active population

(unemployment) - the presence in the country of a part of the economically active population that is willing and able to work, but cannot find work.

Economically active population- residents of the country who have an independent source of livelihood, or desire and potentially can have it.

• employed (employees, entrepreneurs);
• unemployed.

Synonymous with the concept of the economically active population is the term - work force (labor power).

Unemployed- a person aged 10-72 years, according to the ILO definition (in Russia, aged 15-72 years according to the methodology of Rosstat), who, as of the date of the study:

• had no job;
• but he was looking for her;
• and was ready to get started.

Indicators of the unemployment rate and its duration

One of the most important indicators characterizing the phenomenon of unemployment is its level and duration.

Unemployment rate- the share of unemployed in the total number of economically active population of a certain age group.



where: u – unemployment rate;

U is the number of unemployed;

L is the economically active population.

An important concept is the natural rate of unemployment, "natural" because even under the most favorable economic conditions there will be a small, but some percentage of the unemployed. These are people who can, but do not want to work (for example, they have profitable investment and they live on interest, how early).

Natural rate of unemployment- the unemployment rate at full employment of the labor force.

That is, this is the percentage of unemployed in a situation where everyone who wants to work can find a job. This can be achieved under the condition of the most rational and efficient use of labor.

Full employment of the economically active population implies the existence of only structural and frictional unemployment in the country. Therefore, the natural rate of unemployment can be calculated as their sum:



where: u * – natural unemployment rate;

u Fritz. – the level of frictional unemployment;

u struct. – the level of structural unemployment;

U Fritz – the number of frictional unemployed;

U struct. – the number of structural unemployed;

L is the labor force (economically active population).

Duration of unemployment- the period during which a person is looking for and cannot find a job (that is, he is unemployed).

Frictional, structural, cyclical and other forms of unemployment

The following are the most important forms of unemployment :

1. Friction- Unemployment due to the voluntary search for a new better job by an employee.

In this case, the employee deliberately quits his previous job and looks for another, with more attractive working conditions for him.

2. Structural- Unemployment caused by changes in the structure of demand for labor, as a result of which there is a discrepancy between the requirements for applicants for vacant jobs and the qualifications of the unemployed.

The causes of structural unemployment can be: the elimination of obsolete professions, changes in production technology, a large-scale restructuring of the entire economic system states.

There are two types of structural unemployment:

• destructive- with negative consequences;
• stimulating- encouraging employees to improve their skills, retrain for more modern and popular professions, etc.

3. Cyclic- unemployment caused by a decline in production during the corresponding

In addition, there are other types of unemployment :

a) voluntary- caused by the unwillingness of people to work, for example, with a decrease in the level wages.

Voluntary unemployment is especially high during the phase of the economic peak or boom. When the economy is in recession, its level decreases.

b) forced(waiting unemployment) - occurs when people are able and willing to work with given level wages, but they cannot find work.

The reason for involuntary unemployment, for example, may be the inflexibility of the labor market in relation to wages (the struggle of trade unions for high wages, the establishment of a minimum wage by the state). Some workers are ready to work for a small salary, but the employer simply cannot arrange them under such conditions. Therefore, he will hire fewer workers, more skilled and at higher wages.

c) seasonal- unemployment characteristic of some sectors of the economy, where the need for labor depends on the time of year (season).

For example, in the agricultural industry during sowing or harvesting.

d) technological- Unemployment caused by mechanization and automation of production, as a result of which the productivity of the ore increases dramatically and fewer jobs with a higher level of qualification are required.

e) registered- Unemployment characterizing the unemployed economically active population, officially registered in this capacity.

e) hidden- Unemployment, actually existing, but not officially recognized.

An example of hidden unemployment can be the presence of persons who are formally employed, but actually not working (during a recession, many production facilities are idle and the labor force is not fully utilized). Or it can be people who want to work, but are not registered at the labor exchange.

g) marginal- Unemployment of poorly protected social strata (women, youth, disabled people).

h) unstable temporary unemployment.

For example, layoffs in seasonal sectors of the economy after the end of the “hot” season, or people voluntarily changing their jobs.

i) institutional- Unemployment provoked by the intervention of trade unions or the state in the establishment of wages, which as a result becomes different from what could be formed in a natural way.

Causes and consequences of unemployment

There are many factors that can trigger an increase in unemployment. The following main causes of unemployment:

1. Structural improvements in the economy- the emergence and introduction of new technologies and equipment can lead to a reduction in jobs (machines "force out" a person).

2. Seasonal fluctuations- temporary changes in the level of production and provision of services (and, accordingly, the number of jobs) in certain industries.

3. Cyclical economy- during a recession or crisis, the need for resources, including labor, decreases.

4. Demographic change- in particular, the growth of the working-age population can lead to the fact that the demand for jobs will grow faster than their supply, which will lead to unemployment.

5. Wage policy– measures of the state, trade unions or company management to increase minimum size wages can lead to an increase in production costs and a decrease in the need for labor.

The situation where the working-age population cannot find work is not harmless, and there may be serious consequences of unemployment

1. Economic impact:

• reduction in federal budget revenues - the higher unemployment, the lower tax revenues (in particular from);
• an increase in the costs of society - the burden of supporting the unemployed falls on society, represented by the state: the payment of benefits, financing the professional retraining of the unemployed, etc.;
• declining living standards - people who become unemployed and their families lose personal income, and their quality of life is reduced;
• under-received output - as a result of incomplete use of the labor force, there may be a lag in actual GDP from potential.

Okun's law Show

Okun's law (Okun's law) is named after the American economist Arthur Melvin Okun.

It says: the excess of the unemployment rate over the natural unemployment rate by 1% causes a decrease in real GDP relative to the level of potential GDP by 2.5% (derived for the United States in the 1960s; today, numerical values ​​​​may be different for other countries).



where: Y - actual GDP;

Y * - potential GDP,

u cycle. - the level of cyclical unemployment;

β is an empirical sensitivity factor (usually 2.5 is taken). Each economy (country), depending on the period, will have its own value of the coefficient β.

2. Non-economic consequences:

• aggravation of the crime situation - more thefts, robberies, etc.;
• stressful load on society - job loss is a great personal tragedy for a person, severe psychological stress;
• political and social unrest - mass unemployment can cause an acute social reaction (rallies, strikes, pogroms) and lead to violent political changes.

Galyautdinov R.R.




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Population= Labor force + Not labor force
Not labor force: children under 16; persons serving sentences in prisons; people in psychiatric hospitals and people with disabilities, people who do not want or cannot work and are not looking for work, full-time students; retired; housewives; vagabonds; people who have stopped looking for work Labor force = Employed + Unemployed
L=E+U

Cyclical unemployment associated with the rise and fall of production.

Structural unemployment caused by a mismatch between the structure of demand and supply of labor.

frictional unemployment associated with the voluntary transfer of workers from one job to another.
The frictional unemployed include:
1) dismissed from work by order of the administration;
2) resigned of their own free will;
3) awaiting reinstatement in their previous jobs;
4) those who have found a job, but have not yet started it;
5) seasonal workers (out of season);
6) people who first appeared on the labor market and have the level of professional training and qualifications required in the economy.
Actual unemployment rate
Frictional Unemployment Rate = FB / L
Structural Unemployment Rate = SAT/L
Natural Unemployment Rate = FB + SSB

Unemployment rate

Natural Unemployment Rate = Frictional Unemployment Rate + Structural Unemployment Rate

There are 146,000 unemployed in country A. The employment rate is 90%. This month, 50,000 people were fired, of which 10,000 decided not to look for work yet. In the same month, 100 thousand people were demobilized from the ranks of the country's Armed Forces. conscripts. Of these, 30 thousand decided to enter higher educational institutions, 40 thousand decided to find a job, and the rest decided to take a break and think about the future. How and how much has the unemployment rate changed in a given month?
Unemployment rate 10% (100 - 90).
The level of the working-age population: L = 146 / 0.1 = 1460 thousand people
The unemployed are people who are not working but looking for a job.
U1 = 50 - 10 = 40 (structural unemployment)
U2 = 40 - from among the military who decided to look for a job (frictional unemployment)
U = 40 + 40 = 80 thousand

Unemployment rate in Russia

Year	Unemployed, thousand people	Number of economically active population, thousand people	Unemployment rate, %
2000	7699.5	72770.0	10.6
2001	6423.7	71546.6	9.0
2002	5698.3	72357.1	7.9
2003	5933.5	72273.0	8.2
2004	5666.0	72984.7	7.8
2005	5242.0	73581.0	7.1
2006	5250.2	74418.9	7.1
2007	4518.6	75288.9	6.0
2008	4697.0	75700.1	6.2
2009	6283.7	75694.2	8.3
2010	5544.2	75477.9	7.3
2011	4922.4	75779.0	6.5
2012	4130.7	75676.1	5.5
2013	4137.4	75528.9	5.5
2014	3889.4	75428.4	5.2
2015	4100	75500	5.8
2016	4200	76600	5.5
2017	4000	72100	5.2
2018

* Data for 2003-2011 recalculated taking into account the results of the 2010 All-Russian Population Census.

State measures to combat unemployment

1. Internship (graduates of schools, colleges and universities);
2. Retraining (training);
3. Vocational training (change of type of activity);
4. Creating your own business (self-employment);
5. Public and temporary works;
6. Moving to another area for the purpose of temporary employment.

Unemployment and potential GDP

American economist Arthur Okun formulated the law: the excess of the actual unemployment rate by 1% of its natural level leads to a lag in the volume of actual GNP from the potential (at full employment) GNP - by 2.5% (Oaken's coefficient).
GNP deficit= Real unemployment rate - natural unemployment rate
GNP Deficit = Actual Unemployment - Natural Unemployment

The real GNP in this year was V. The potential GNP was V. The actual unemployment rate was u%. Find the approximate value of the natural unemployment rate if the Okun coefficient is equal to k = 2.5.
Okun's law:(V-V")/V = -k(u-u")
where
V* - potential GNP;
V - real GNP;
u* - natural unemployment;
u - actual unemployment;
k - Okun's coefficient.

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