Definition 1

Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev(1892 – 1938) - Russian economist; creator of the theory of economic cycles, which are also known as “Large Kondratiev cycles (waves).

short biography

From 1905 he studied at the church-teachers' seminary in the Kostroma province. There he met the future outstanding sociologist P. Sorokin.

Since 1905 - Social Revolutionary. In 1906 he became a member of the Kineshma Committee and took part in the activities of the textile workers’ strike committee. In 1906 he was expelled from the church-teachers' seminary and then arrested.

After his release, in 1907 he began his studies in the city of Uman, at the School of Agriculture and Horticulture. He combined his studies with work as a gardener's assistant.

In 1908 he left for St. Petersburg and entered the Chernyaevsky general education courses.

1911 – beginning of studies at the Faculty of Law of St. Petersburg University. After completing his studies, he remained at the department of political economy and statistics, where he was preparing to receive a professorship.

Both during his studies at the university and after graduation, Nikolai Dmitrievich was actively involved in literary and scientific activities. He worked as the personal secretary of Professor M. M. Kovalevsky, participated in the activities of the scientific circles of M. I. Tugan-Baranovsky and L. I. Petrazhitsky. In addition, he was engaged in teaching, conducting cooperative and agronomic courses. In parallel to this, the scientist was an active participant in the socialist-revolutionary movement.

Due to his active social and political activities, he was under the supervision of the “relevant authorities”, and in 1913 he was arrested. Spent 1 month in custody.

After the February Revolution, Kondratiev worked as A. F. Kerensky’s secretary on issues Agriculture. After the end of the October Revolution, he continued his political activities as part of the Socialist Revolutionary Party.

In 1918 he moved to Moscow, where he began teaching at Shanyavsky University, the Cooperative Institute, and also at the Petrovsky Academy of Agriculture. For some time he worked at the Moscow People's Bank.

Scientific activity and economic views

N. D. Kondratyev is one of the founders and first director of the Market Research Institute under the People's Commissariat of Finance of the USSR. In the early 20s. XX century served as head of the department of agricultural economics and policy at the People's Commissariat of Agriculture of the USSR. Under the leadership of Kondratiev, a long-term plan for the development of forestry and agriculture in the RSFSR was developed, which combined both market and planning principles.

In 1924, he made a scientific trip to Great Britain, the USA, Germany, and Canada in order to study the organization of agricultural production.

Note 1

In 1925, the scientist published his most famous work "Large Cycles of Conjuncture". This scientific work caused heated discussions, since it formulated the theory of cycles in the socio-economic and cultural development of countries with market economies.

The Bolshevik leadership harshly criticized all of Kondratiev's scientific positions. In 1930, the scientist was arrested, in 1932 he was sentenced to 8 years in prison, and in 1938 he was shot.

Note 2

His theory of large cycles (waves) has been considered “classical” for many years. According to it: “... social upheavals arise most easily precisely during the period of rapid onslaught of new economic forces.”

The most significant contribution to the popularization of N. D. Kondratiev’s work was made by the famous Austrian economist J. Schumpeter. It was thanks to the latter that the term “Kondratieff waves” was introduced. In addition, Schumpeter developed the pattern discovered by Kondratieff, along with the 7-11 year cycles of production and employment.

The notorious Kommunarka testing ground became the site of death for many disgraced Soviet scientists. One of them was economist Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev. In the early years of the USSR, he led the country's agrarian planning. The main part of Kondratiev’s theoretical heritage was the book “Great Cycles of Conjuncture.” The scientist also substantiated the NEP policy, which made it possible to restore Soviet economy after the devastating Civil War.

Childhood and youth

Economist Nikolai Kondratyev was born on March 16, 1892 in the village of Galuevskaya. From the age of 13 he went to a church-teacher seminary. During the first Russian revolution, the student became a Socialist Revolutionary and helped the work of the textile workers' strike committee. For this he was expelled from the seminary and even sent to prison.

A year later, Nikolai Kondratiev was released and entered the school of horticulture and agriculture in the Ukrainian city of Uman. In 1908 he left for St. Petersburg. In the capital, Kondratiev shared a room with culturologist and sociologist Pitirim Sorokin, the future founder of the theory of social mobility.

Beginning of scientific activity

In 1911, Nikolai Kondratiev entered St. Petersburg University. After graduation, he chose the department of political economy and statistics and decided to prepare for a professorship.

At this time, Kondratiev was engaged in vigorous literary and scientific activity. He collaborated with Vestnik Evropy, Zavety and other magazines, and also gave numerous lectures. The young intellectual was a member of the scientific circles of Mikhail Tugan-Baranovsky and Lev Petrazhitsky. Professor Maxim Kovalevsky made him his secretary. In 1915, Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratyev published his first monograph on the economy of his native Kostroma province.

Participation in revolutionary events

Even being part of the scientific community of St. Petersburg, Kondratiev remained a member. For a long time, he was under secret surveillance by the secret police. In 1913, when Russia celebrated the 300th anniversary of the Romanov dynasty, Kondratiev spent a month in prison.

The economist's political activity intensified after the sudden events of the February Revolution. The young scientist was a delegate to the III Congress of the Socialist Revolutionary Party, held in Moscow in May - June 1917. There he made a speech in support of the Provisional Government. The economist then became Kerensky's adviser on agricultural issues. Nikolai Kondratiev participated in the creation of the Council of Peasant Deputies and in September was delegated to them at the All-Russian Democratic Conference. The economist was elected to the Provisional Council of the Republic. In addition, he managed to participate in the activities of the Main Land Committee and the League of Agrarian Reforms.

Helping the Kerensky government, Kondratiev worked to overcome the food problem that arose due to the long war against Germany and its allies. The lack of food affected the mood of society. Creating a system of stable supply would smooth out many social contradictions and avoid a political crisis. At that time, Kondratiev was a supporter of the idea of ​​a state grain monopoly. He also pinned his hopes on requisitioning, although in 1917 it did not solve the food problem - the threat of a large-scale famine continued to loom before the Provisional Government.

Retreat from politics

The October Revolution transferred Kondratiev to the opposition camp. He became a deputy of the Constituent Assembly from the Social Revolutionaries. When this body was dispersed, the scientist moved to the Union for the Revival of Russia, which opposed the Bolsheviks. In 1919, the Socialist Revolutionary Party suffered a final defeat. Kondratyev Nikolai Dmitrievich moved away from politics and devoted himself entirely to science.

After the revolution, Kondratiev moved to Moscow. There he began teaching at several higher educational institutions - Shanyavsky University, Cooperative Institute, Petrovsky Agricultural Academy. For some time the location was the Moscow People's Bank. In 1920, Kondratiev was arrested and became a defendant in the case of the Union for the Revival of Russia. The former Socialist Revolutionary was saved by the intercession of the utopian Alexander Chayanov and the prominent Bolshevik Ivan Teodorovich.

Work in the State Planning Committee

Through the efforts of Kondratiev, the Market Research Institute was founded under the People's Commissariat of Finance. The Soviet economist headed it in 1920-1928. He also worked for three years at the People's Commissariat of Agriculture. In the State Planning Committee of the USSR, Kondratiev was part of the agricultural department. The scientist led the development of a strategy for the development of the agricultural industry.

In 1922, Nikolai Kondratiev, whose contribution to the economy of the young Soviet state was already significant, again became a target of repression. He was included in the list of undesirable citizens preparing for deportation from the USSR. Kondratyev was defended by the People's Commissariat of Agriculture. Since the specialist controlled several important processes, his name was crossed off the blacklist.

Abroad

In 1924, Kondratiev went on a scientific trip abroad. He visited Germany, Canada, Great Britain and the USA. The economist had to get acquainted with market mechanisms Western countries. This experience was useful to him when developing the principles of the NEP. It was Nikolai Kondratiev (1892-1938) who was one of the main adherents of the new economic policy, which the Bolsheviks came to after several years of ruinous war communism. Also, the Soviet specialist had to assess the prospects for USSR exports.

Kondratiev’s friend Pitirim Sorokin was already living in the States at that time. He suggested that Nikolai Dmitrievich stay in America, head a university department there and protect himself and his family, who went abroad with him. However, Kondratiev refused to leave his homeland. He was fascinated by the new opportunities that the NEP opened up for him.

Homecoming

It had not yet begun in 1924. No one could even imagine that the horrors that shook the USSR in the 1930s would occur. From Stalin’s declassified correspondence with one of the organizers of the terror, Yakov Agranov, it is known today that while in custody, Kondratyev was tortured on the personal orders of the leader. While in the United States, the economist could hardly have imagined something like this.

Returning from abroad, Kondratiev continued active work in the field of economic planning - he proposed and worked out the so-called agricultural five-year plan of 1923-1928.

Contribution to the economy

In 1925, the most important theoretical work Kondratiev - “Large cycles of market conditions.” It caused a wide discussion both in the USSR and abroad. A new term has appeared, which was proposed by Nikolai Kondratiev - “cycles economic development».

According to the scientist's theory, world economy develops in a spiral. Ups are cyclically followed by downs, and vice versa. The researcher believed that the length of one such period was about 50 years. In the USSR, many did not like the ideas that Kondratiev put forward. “Kondratieff Cycles” were considered the author’s departure from Marxism.

It is interesting that the economist put forward his hypothesis without any theoretical basis. Kondratiev used only his own empirical observations. He analyzed in detail the performance of the economies of the United States and Western Europe from the end of the 18th to the beginning of the 20th century. Having done this work, the scientist built graphs and discovered repeating synchronicity. Kondratiev identified the following phases of development of any economy: growth, peak, decline, depression.

If the bold theory never found application in the Soviet Union, it was appreciated abroad by many world-famous economists. The Kondratiev concept was defended by the Austrian and American scientist Joseph Schumpeter. In Russia, research into the heritage of a compatriot resumed only after Perestroika. Among other things, Kondratiev left behind basic research, devoted to the dynamics of prices of agricultural and industrial goods.

Conflict with the authorities

“Large cycles of economic conditions” aroused rejection among the Soviet leadership. Soon after the publication of the monograph, the magazine persecution of Kondratiev began, the organizer of which was There was no scientific controversy in it. Criticism felt like denunciation. Although the Soviet leadership after Lenin's death consisted of a dozen Bolsheviks squabbling for power, it almost entirely did not tolerate Kondratiev.

The exception was Mikhail Kalinin. Stalin later blackmailed him with his long-standing connections with Kondratiev. Nikolai Bukharin supported the theoretical ideas of the scientist (when Bukharin was also tried and sentenced to capital punishment, the Bolshevik was also accused of having a political alliance with the disgraced economist).

Opal

Although Kondratieff himself, the Kondratiev Cycles and all his other economic initiatives were attacked at the highest level, the scientist was not going to give up his position without a fight. He defended his own innocence both in journals and at meetings. His speech at the Communist Academy, which took place in November 1926, was especially striking. In addition, Kondratiev wrote reports and memos to the Central Committee.

In 1927, another article by Zinoviev appeared in the Bolshevik magazine under the loud title “Manifesto of the Kulak Party”. It was she who set the tone in which the final fatal blows were subsequently dealt to Kondratiev. Accusations of sympathizing with the kulaks and undermining socialism were no longer just threats, they were followed by real actions by the security officers.

Request for help

Nikolai Kondratieff's theoretical proposals and books were based on the idea that the economy should develop gradually. This principle contradicted the Stalinist haste with which the flywheel of Soviet industrialization was spun. Largely for this, in 1928, Kondratiev was removed from the leadership of his brainchild, the Institute of Market Studies, and thrown out of scientific life.

In 1930, Nikolai Dmitrievich wrote a letter to his friend Sorokin, which was illegally delivered to the United States through Finland. In the message, the scientist briefly described the growing horrors of Soviet reality: dispossession in the countryside, pressure on the intelligentsia. Without work, Kondratiev found himself on the brink of starvation. He asked Sorokin for help. He turned to Samuel Harper, a professor at the University of Chicago, who often visited the USSR.

Arrest and imprisonment

During another trip to the Soviet Union, Harper met with Kondratiev several times. One day, the two of them arrived at the apartment agreed upon in advance, where GPU agents were waiting for them. Kondratiev was arrested. The year was 1930.

While in prison, the economist continued his scientific work. While in prison, he wrote several works. Formally, Nikolai Kondratyev, whose biography is connected with the Social Revolutionaries and even Kerensky, was tried in the case of the Labor Peasant Party. In 1932 he was sentenced to eight years in prison. Kondratyev went to the Suzdal political isolation ward. There he continued to write.

Only one work from the Suzdal period, devoted to the macromodel of economic dynamics, has survived to this day. While in prison, the scientist watched as his monographs became world famous and economic forecasts came true. It was all the more bitter for him to experience the forced separation from full-fledged scientific activity.

Execution and rehabilitation

Although the required eight years had passed, Kondratiev did not receive his release. In 1938, at the height of the Great Terror, he was tried by the Military Collegium of the Supreme Court of the USSR. On September 17, the scientist was shot. The place of massacre was the Kommunarka training ground. The repressed person was buried there.

In 1963, after the 20th Congress of the CPSU, Kondratiev was rehabilitated, although this fact was not made public. The economist's scientific heritage remained the object of defamation and criticism of official Soviet science for many years. Kondratiev’s good name was finally restored during Perestroika, in 1987, when he was rehabilitated for the second time (this time together with his murdered colleague Alexander Chayanov).

Until 1928, several works by Kondratiev were published one after another, containing fundamentally new ideas of economic planning and views on the state of world markets. During Kondratiev's lifetime, all of his significant articles were translated and published abroad. He was a member economic societies USA and Great Britain, was personally acquainted or by correspondence with the largest economists of his time.

In his monographs “The grain market and its regulation during war and revolution” (1922) and “Fundamentals of a long-term plan for the development of agriculture and forestry” (1925) the “SR” idea was pursued that for Russia the “leading link” in planning is agriculture and that a balance between the agricultural and industrial sectors is necessary. Kondratiev’s main achievement and contribution to world science was his theory of cycles in the economic, social and cultural development of countries. He published its first sketches back in 1922 and then continued to develop it.

Kondratiev's conclusions were based on an analysis of the dynamics of the main parameters of the economy of the USA, Germany, England, and France over the past 100-150 years. Employees of the Market Research Institute studied price indices, quotes of government debt securities, levels wages, foreign trade turnover, coal mining, gold mining, iron production, etc.

Kondratiev was the first to notice that a number of indicators change with cyclical regularity, and phases of growth and decline alternate. The oscillation period is 50 years with an error of up to 10 years. Consequently, the “great cycle of conjuncture” lasts from 40 to 60 years. Joseph Schumpeter subsequently called them “Kondratieff cycles.”

« ...Wars and revolutions arise on the basis of real, and above all economic conditions... due to the increased pace and tension of the market situation economic life, intensifying economic competition for markets and raw materials... Social upheavals arise most easily precisely during the period of rapid onslaught of new economic forces.”

1924 N.D. Kondratiev with his wife E.D. Kondratieva during his business trip to the USA

In 1924, Kondratiev and his wife went on a year-long scientific trip to the USA, Canada, England and Germany - with instructions to find out ways to strengthen the economic positions of the USSR. In the USA they met Pitirim Sorokin, who was expelled from Russia in 1922. Sorokin invited Kondratiev to stay in the USA, but Kondratiev was captured by the prospects that opened up for him in his homeland.

Upon returning home, he actively participated in the development of the first long-term plan for agricultural development. During the “Kondratiev Five-Year Plan” (1924-1928), the Russian village was able to recover after the Civil War.

Commemorative medal in honor of Nikolai Kondratiev

Kondratiev advocated the proportional development of industry and agriculture and against taxes and fees that were unaffordable for peasants for the construction of factories and factories. This caused rejection by the ideologists of industrialization: Zinoviev called his concept a “manifesto of the kulak party”; at the instigation of Stalin, the term “Kondratievism” became a symbol of sabotage.

In 1928, the Market Research Institute under the Narkomfin was closed, and in 1930 Nikolai Kondratiev was arrested, accused of sabotage in agriculture, “bringing through bourgeois planning methods” and belonging to the mythical “Labor Peasant Party”. Chayanov could no longer help him out, since he himself was arrested on the same charges. In August 1930, Stalin wrote to Molotov: “Vyacheslav! I think that the investigation into the case of Kondratyev, Groman, Sadyrin should be conducted with all thoroughness, without rushing. This matter is very important... Kondratiev, Groman and a couple of scoundrels must definitely be shot.”

While awaiting trial in Butyrka prison, Kondratiev wrote the work “Main Problems of Economic Statics and Dynamics” (published only in 1991). At a closed trial in 1932, Kondratyev was sentenced to 8 years and sent to a political prison. There the scientist continued to work on his theory of large cycles and improved its mathematical apparatus.

The scientist had a poetic gift: in prison, Kondratyev wrote for his daughter a fairy tale in verse with drawings, “The Extraordinary Adventures of Shammi”:

“In the bliss of a warm, languid night

The soul is full of new strength:

There beyond the distance of the dark sea

A wonderful country awaits them.”

Nikolai Kondratyev with his daughter Elena

In prison, Kondratyev grew weaker, lost his sight and hearing, and had difficulty moving. Scientific work, which constituted the meaning of his life, ceased.

On September 17, 1938, the Military Collegium of the Supreme Court of the USSR sentenced Nikolai Kondratyev to capital punishment, and on the same day he was shot. He was only 46 years old. The ashes of the outstanding economist were buried in a common grave at the notorious “Kommunarka” - the NKVD execution range.

KONDRATIEV, NIKOLAY DMITRIEVICH(18921938) Soviet economist, creator of the concept of long waves of economic conditions (“Kondratieff cycles”).

N.D. Kondratyev was born into a peasant family in the village of Galuevskaya, Kostroma province. While a student at the Church Teachers' Seminary, he joined the Socialist Revolutionary Party in 1905. For his revolutionary activities he was expelled from the seminary and spent several months in prison. In 1911, having passed the matriculation exams as an external student, he entered the economics department of the Faculty of Law of St. Petersburg University. Among his teachers was M.I. Tugan-Baranovsky, who passed on to his student an interest in the problems of economic development. During his studies, Kondratiev continued to participate in the revolutionary movement; in 1913 he was arrested again and spent a month in prison. After graduating from the university in 1915, he remained at the university in the department of political economy to prepare for a professorship.

In 1917 Kondratiev actively participated in political life worked as A.F. Kerensky’s secretary for agricultural affairs, was a member of the last Provisional Government as Deputy Minister of Food. After the Bolsheviks came to power, he first sought to fight them, but then began to cooperate with the new authorities, believing that an honest and qualified economist could serve his country under any regime. In 1919, Kondratiev left the Socialist Revolutionary Party, completely abandoned politics and focused on purely scientific activities.

In 1920, Professor Kondratiev became director of the Moscow Market Research Institute under the People's Commissariat of Finance. At the same time, he taught at the Timiryazev Agricultural Academy, and also worked at the People's Commissariat of Agriculture as head of the department of economics and agricultural planning. The years of the NEP saw the heyday of his scientific activity. In 1925 Kondratiev published his work Large market cycles, which immediately sparked discussions, first in the USSR and then abroad.

The works of the Institute of Market Studies, which he headed, quickly gained worldwide fame. He was elected a member of many foreign economic and statistical societies, he was personally acquainted or corresponded with the greatest economists of his time - W. Mitchell, A. S. Kuznets, I. Fisher, J. M. Keynes.

In 1920 and 1922, Kondratiev was arrested twice on political charges. With the end of the NEP, the “peaceful coexistence” of non-Marxist economists with the Soviet regime also ended. In 1928, “Kondratievism” was declared the ideology of the restoration of capitalism. In 1929, Kondratiev was fired from the Market Research Institute, and in 1930 he was arrested, declaring him the head of the non-existent underground “Labor Peasant Party”. In 1931 he was sentenced to 8 years in prison, his last scientific works he wrote in the Butyrka prison and the Suzdal political isolation ward. In 1938, when his term of imprisonment was ending, a new trial was organized over the seriously ill scientist, which ended in a sentence of death. Only in 1987 was he posthumously rehabilitated.

In world economic science, he is known primarily as the author of the concept of “long waves,” in which he developed the idea of ​​a plurality of economic cycles.

IN market economy, Kondratiev believed, in addition to the well-known medium-term cycles (812 years), there are also long-term cycles (5055 years) “big waves of the market.” He processed statistical materials (price dynamics, loan interest, wages, indicators foreign trade, production volumes of main types industrial products) for the 1780-1920s for countries such as England, France, Germany, the USA, as well as for the world economy in general. During the analyzed period of time, Kondratiev identified two complete large cycles (from the 1780s to the 1840s and from the 1850s to the 1890s) and the beginning of the third (from the 1900s). Since each cycle consisted of boom and bust phases, he was able to essentially predict the Great Depression of 1929-1933 several years before it began.

The concept of “long waves” became especially popular in the second half of the 20th century, when economists began to pay special attention to global and long-term trends economic life. The half-century cycles he studied in modern science are called “Kondratieff”.

Kondratiev's works on problems Soviet economy Much less of his research on “long waves” is known these days, although their scientific significance is also very great.

According to Kondratiev, the state can and should influence the national economy through planning. Kondratiev should be considered the founder of the theory and practice of indicative (recommendatory) planning, introduced in the post-war decades at the insistence of the Keynesians in almost all developed countries West.

Under his leadership, a long-term plan for the development of agriculture and forestry in the RSFSR for 1923–1928 (“Kondratieff’s agricultural five-year plan”) was developed, based on the principle of combining planned and market principles. Kondratiev believed that effective agricultural sector capable of ensuring the recovery of the entire economy, including industry. Therefore, the planning concept he proposed assumed a balanced and simultaneous rise in both the industrial and agricultural sectors.

Kondratiev criticized directive (command-order) planning, which was advocated not only by “Marxist-orthodox” Soviet economists, but also by the top party leadership. His critical forecasts were justified: the first five-year plan became a policy of plundering agriculture for the sake of the rise of heavy industry, but the original plans were never fully implemented. It was the criticism of directive planning that became the pretext for political reprisals against Kondratiev.

Kondratiev is deservedly considered the most outstanding Russian economist of the Soviet period. By decision of UNESCO, 1992 was celebrated throughout the world as the year of his memory.

Proceedings: Problems of economic dynamics. M.: Economics, 1989; Basic problems of economic statics and dynamics: Preliminary sketch. M.: Nauka, 1991; The grain market and its regulation during war and revolution. M.: Nauka, 1991; Selected Works. M.: Economics, 1993; Dissenting opinion: Selected works in 2 books. M.: Nauka, 1993.

Materials on the Internet: http://russcience.euro.ru/papers/mak89nk.htm;

http://www.marketing.cfin.ru/read/article/a45.htm.

— Nikolay Kondratyev
— The theory of Nikolai Kondratiev
— Kondratieff waves
— The relationship between Kondratieff waves and technological structures
— Limitations of the Kondratieff model
— Where we are and what to expect in the future
- Conclusion

Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev- Russian economist. Founder of the theory of economic cycles, known as “Kondratiev Cycles”.

Theoretically substantiated the “new economic policy" in USSR. Born on March 4 (16), 1892 in the village of Galuevskaya, Kineshma district, Kostroma province. On June 19, 1930, he was arrested by the OGPU on false charges.

On September 17, 1938, the Military Collegium of the Supreme Court of the USSR sentenced him to death and was executed on the same day. Twice posthumously rehabilitated - in 1963 and 1987.

Nikolai Kondratiev's theory

The theory is that along with short- and medium-term economic cycles, there are economic cycles lasting about 45-55 years. The concept of large economic cycles indicates periods:

I cycle – from the beginning of the 90s. XVIII century until 1844-1951;
II cycle – from the beginning of 1844-1951. until 1890-1896;
III cycle – from 1890-1896. until 1914-1920

N.D. Kondratiev explained the existence of large economic cycles by the fact that the duration of functioning of various created economic goods is not the same. Equally, their creation requires different times and different means. As a rule, bridges, roads, buildings and other infrastructure have the longest period of operation.

They also require the most time and the most accumulated capital to create them. Hence it is necessary to introduce the concept of various types equilibrium in relation to different periods of time. Large cycles can be viewed as disruption and restoration of economic equilibrium over a long period.

Their main reason lies in the mechanism of accumulation, accumulation and dispersion of capital sufficient to create new elements of infrastructure. However, the effect of this main cause is enhanced by the action of secondary factors. The beginning of the rise (“upward wave”) coincides with the moment when accumulation reaches a state in which it becomes possible to profitably invest capital to create new fixed assets.

The rise is accompanied by complications caused by the industrial crisis of the medium-term cycle. A decrease in the pace of economic life (“downward wave”) caused by an accumulating aggregate economic factors negative nature, in turn, determines the intensification of searches in the field of creating advanced technology and the concentration of capital in the hands of industrial and financial groups.

All this creates the preconditions for a new upsurge, and it is repeated again, albeit at a new stage in the development of productive forces. In accordance with the theory of N.D. Kondratiev, the beginning of the rise in the new large economic cycle occurred in the mid-40s, and the next one will occur in the mid-90s.

Kondratieff waves

Kondratiev waves are the most long waves economic cycle after the Kitchin, Juglar and Kuznets waves, their duration is 40–60 years.

Kondratiev’s theory was developed empirically based on the analysis of statistical data from the US and European economies from the beginning of the 19th century and still does not have a strict scientific justification. There are different points of view among the explanations for wave development. According to a number of scientists, it takes 40–60 years from a significant scientific discovery to real innovation in production.

There is also no single view on the periods of Kondratieff waves. The most widespread definition is: the first cycle - 1803-1847, the second - 1847-1891, the third - 1891-1934, the fourth - 1934-1978. The fifth cycle is now ongoing, which began approximately in 1978 and is projected to end in 2022.

It is customary to distinguish the following phases of the Kondratiev cycle.

First phase – the economic growth , implementation of inventions and discoveries made at the previous stage. This phase is characterized by high levels of inflation and interest rates.

Second phase – peak, maximum growth, high level of liberalism in the economy. In addition, historically, the second phase was associated with world wars and disasters, and therefore with a certain number of government orders and a reduction in consumption in the non-productive sphere. From a technological point of view, this period is characterized by a large number of not major discoveries, but improvements.

Third phase – decline. There may still be some growth in the early stages, driven by cost cutting. But after some time, the trend reverses. The economy is overheated and the market is saturated. Competition is intensifying, resulting in numerous administrative barriers, including customs ones. Interest rates decrease and inflation may become negative, meaning prices decrease.

Fourth and final phase – depression. There is a significant slowdown or even a complete stop GDP growth. Interest rates are low, but demand for credit is at a minimum. Inflation is at its lowest level, but demand for goods and services is also low. This is the worst phase of the economic cycle, but it is during this period, according to experts, that the most important scientific and technological discoveries are made, which should become an incentive to move forward and start a new cycle.

From the point of view of the theory of Kondratieff waves, today the world is in the fourth phase. This phase is accompanied by global financial crises. Authorities responsible for monetary policy, are reduced to almost zero levels interest rates, as is happening, for example, in the USA and Japan at the end of 2011 - beginning of 2012.

The relationship between Kondratieff waves and technological structures

1st cycle— textile factories, industrial use of coal.

2nd cycle— coal mining and ferrous metallurgy, railway construction, steam engine.

3rd cycle— heavy engineering, electric power, inorganic chemistry, steel and electric motors.

4th cycle- production of cars and other machines, chemical industry, oil refining and internal combustion engines, mass production.

5th cycle— development of electronics, robotics, computing, laser and telecommunications technology.

6th cycle— perhaps NBIC-convergence (convergence of nano-, bio-, information and cognitive technologies).

Based on his research, N.D. Kondratiev made a number of conclusions:

Before the start of the upward wave of each major cycle, significant transformations occur in the social economic processes, which are expressed in the emergence of significant scientific discoveries, technical inventions, changes in the sphere of production and exchange.

Periods of rising cycles of market waves are, as a rule, accompanied by major social upheavals (revolutions, wars).

The downward waves of these cycles are associated with long-term depression in agriculture.

“...wars and revolutions arise on the basis of real, and above all economic conditions... on the basis of an increase in the pace and tension of economic life, intensification of economic competition for markets and raw materials... Social upheavals arise most easily precisely during the period of rapid onslaught of new economic forces"

N.D.Kondratiev

Limitations of the Kondratiev Model

It should be noted that, despite the importance of the cyclical development of society revealed by N. D. Kondratiev for forecasting problems, his model (like any stochastic model) only studies the behavior of the system in a fixed (closed) environment. Such models do not always answer questions related to the nature of the system itself, the behavior of which is being studied.

It is well known that the behavior of a system is an important aspect in its study. However, no less important, and perhaps even the most important, are aspects of the system associated with its genesis, structural (gestalt) aspects, aspects of the complementarity of the logic of the system with its subject, etc. They allow us to correctly pose the question of the reasons for this or that type of behavior system depending, for example, on the external environment in which it operates.

Kondratiev cycles in this sense are just a consequence (result) of the system’s reaction to the current external environment. The question of revealing the nature of the process of such a reaction today and revealing the factors that influence the behavior of systems is relevant. Especially when many, based on the results of N.D. Kondratiev and S.P. Kapitsa on the compression of time, predict a more or less rapid transition of society to a period of permanent crisis.

Where are we and what to expect in the future

Many reputable economists agree that the winter cycle really began in 2000 (at least, all events point to exactly this scenario), which means only one thing - today we are on the threshold of a new long Kondratieff cycle. This point of view is indirectly confirmed by the following events:

After the rapid collapse (2014 and 2015), commodity prices have stabilized;

In developed countries, after prolonged deflation, consumer prices began to rise;

The Fed began to gradually raise rates;

Demand for “paper” gold is declining;

After a long winter, the financial sector recovered.

In addition, a new Kondratieff cycle is always accompanied by the emergence of new technologies, i.e. at the end of autumn, these developments are of a “piecemeal” nature, are expensive and are a tool for speculation; in the winter they become much cheaper (thanks to new discoveries) and by spring they are ready for mass implementation.

Today, biological and medical technologies (cloning, growing artificial organs, etc.), alternative energy, and new materials are claiming this role (for example, at the end of 2016, scientists managed to obtain metallic hydrogen for the first time). Plus, the rapid development of the space industry cannot be ignored.

In addition, social sentiment also points to spring; in particular, Donald Trump won the US elections, whose election program included items related to infrastructure modernization. It is unknown how exactly such promises will be fulfilled, but something else is important here - in American society there has been a demand for the implementation of appropriate programs.

Conclusion

From all of the above, according to Kondratieff’s theory, we can conclude that, in the period 2018-2025. a new Kondratieff cycle is expected. If this forecast comes true, investors will soon begin to invest their capital in the real sector. It is difficult to imagine how these events will affect specific currency pairs, but we can say with confidence that strong trends will form much more often on Forex.

The material was prepared by Dilyara specifically for the site