LONG WAVES OF KONDRATIEVA - long-term trends in the cyclical development of the economy, including downward and upward phases. The analysis of long waves was the basis of the method of long-term forecasting of reproductive processes in the world economy.

Long waves in the economy began to be analyzed by economists in the middle of the 19th century. In 1847, the English scientist H. Clark noted that 54 years had passed between the two world "economic catastrophes" of 1793 and 1847, and suggested that such an interval was not accidental and that there must be some "physical" reasons for this phenomenon.

Further, the English scientist W. Jevons noticed repeated long periods of growth and fall in the series of prices he analyzed. In the 60s of the same century, the theory of cyclic crises was developed by K. Marx. This theory gave impetus to the study of the phenomenon of long waves by Marxist scientists. In 1901, the Marxist A.I. Gelfand was the first to formulate that the capitalist economy is characterized by long periods of recession and stagnation. He noted that cyclical crises that occur during the period of rise are less pronounced, and during the period of recession, on the contrary, they are deeper and longer.

Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev and his theory of long waves. Currently in the world economics with the name of the famous Soviet economist N.D. Kondratiev is associated with such concepts as “long Kondratiev waves” or “big cycles of the Kondratiev conjuncture”. The concept of large Kondratiev cycles consists of three main parts:

1) empirical proof of the existence of large conjuncture cycles;

2) the establishment of patterns that accompany long-term fluctuations in the market situation;

3) an attempt to explain them theoretically.

Explanations for large cycles must be sought in the features of the functioning economic system, which is never in perfect equilibrium. According to Kondratiev, there are three types of equilibrium:

1) balance between market demand and supply of goods and services;

2) equilibrium associated with a change in demand for equipment, facilities;

3) equilibrium associated with the turnover of "basic capital goods".

Kondratiev saw the material basis of large cycles in the features of the reproduction of that part of fixed capital that has been functioning for many decades.

The Austrian economist J. Schumpeter was one of the first to accept the idea of ​​large cycles of N.D. Kondratiev and apply it in his own way. The innovative theory of long waves is associated with his name. The essence of the main provisions developed by him is as follows:

The reason for the emergence of cyclical movement should be sought in innovations, the life cycle of which is considered by him as a “process of creative destruction”;

Numerous life cycles of individual innovations merge into bundles (“clusters”);

The process of introducing innovations does not proceed evenly, it is characterized by leaps and jerks. The underlying motivation for innovation is psychological factors;

The proposed concept of dynamic equilibrium is associated with different types of innovations.

S.Yu.Glazyev in his works, continuing the very important tradition of the Russian economist Kondratiev, considers the most important models for changing technological and production structures, as well as large, "slow" waves in the economy.

Technological order - a group of technological sets connected with each other by the same type of technological chains and forming reproducible integrity. Glazyev and other economists identify 5 technological modes or, in Western terminology, long industrial cycles. Each such cycle begins when a new set of innovations is available to manufacturers. The beginning of our 5th cycle is associated with the development of new means of communication, digital networks, computer programs and genetic engineering. The beginning of each cycle is characterized by the rise of the economy, while the end is characterized by its decline (the Great American Depression is an excellent example of this).

The main claims to the approach of S.Yu.Glazyev are that these models are explanatory, and not project-activity. They describe how one way of life was replaced by another, after everything has already happened, they consider models of the change of techno-production ways post-factum.

FEDERAL AGENCY FOR EDUCATION AND SCIENCE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

TAMBOV STATE UNIVERSITY

them. G. R. DERZHAVINA

ACADEMY OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT

Course work

on the topic: " Longwave N.D. Kondratiev»

Plan

Introduction

Chapter I Scientific heritageN. D. Kondratiev and modernity

1.1 Economic dynamics in the light of the theory of "big cycles" N.D. Kondratiev

1.2 The scientific essence of N. D. Kondratiev’s “great cycles”

Chapter II The Riddle of N. D. Kondratiev: Unfinished Theory of Dynamics and Methodological Problems of Economic Science

2.1 Theoretical basis origin of the theory of long waves

2.2 Development of the ideas of N. D. Kondratiev in the theories of long waves of innovation

Conclusion

Bibliography

Attachment 1

Annex 2

Introduction

The purpose of this work is to study the scientific heritage of N. D. Kondratiev, in particular his theory of long waves or large conjuncture cycles.

Based on the above goal, the following tasks were predetermined:

The task of the theory of cyclic dynamics, methods of its modeling and measurement.

The task of formation and development of the mechanism of large conjuncture cycles in interaction with medium-term and short-term cycles.

The task of the influence of cycles on human life.

The object of the study is the cyclical fluctuations in the development of the economy, which are characterized by recovery, a long rise, a major crisis, etc.

The subject of the study is the socio-economic conditions of production, state regulation of the economy based on anti-cyclical economic policy, the impact of cycles on human life, on the development of education and culture.

I would like to emphasize that many of the ideas put forward by N. D. Kondratiev have not lost their relevance.

The main provisions put forward by the scientist in his writings have aroused and continue to cause keen interest right up to the present time. Many of the issues raised are still open and widely debated.

It can be stated with confidence that the overwhelming majority of them still remain at the center of scientific discussions.

The concept of large cycles of the Kondratiev conjuncture is analyzed by many researchers. It requires careful further analysis and reflection.

ChapterIScientific heritage of N. D. Kondratiev and modernity

1.1Economic dynamics in the light of the theory of "large cycles" by N. D. Kondratiev

Phases of the economic cycle. A cycle is a wave-like oscillation of various durations around the equilibrium position. There are four phases of the cycle: peak (highest point of economic activity), recession (recession), lowest point of activity, rise (expansion). [see fig. 1.1]

The first phase is the peak of the cycle. The highest employment, full capacity utilization, and the highest level of business activity are observed here. Very high level of prices, wages and interest rates.

The second phase is the decline. In this phase, production and employment are reduced, as a result, supply exceeds demand, inflation and other negative phenomena occur in the economy. A long recession is called a depression. It is characterized by stagnation in production, the presence of free money capital. During a recession, the structure of production changes:

unprofitable enterprises and unpromising industries whose products are not sold.

The third phase is the nadir of the recession. Here, production and employment are the lowest. Enterprises are trying to get out of stagnation, to adapt to low prices by reducing production costs. In this phase, fixed capital is renewed, its demand grows, which stimulates the development of industries that produce means of production, and then the entire economy is revived.

The fourth phase is revitalization. Prices, profits, wages rise, as a result of which the levels of production and employment gradually increase up to full time and full capacity utilization, that is, up to the peak. Then the phases of the cycle are repeated again and again.

The cyclical development of the economy is also characterized by recurring crises preceding the depression. Typically, crises are manifested in the discrepancy between production and consumption. Causes economic crises can be: a mismatch in time between the moments of sales and payment for goods, the insolvency of buyers, a mismatch between the structures of supply and demand. In addition, in recent years there have been oil, energy, food, raw materials, and environmental crises. Not being cyclic, they have a significant impact on the general state of production, changing the duration of the phases of the cycle, exacerbating its contradictions.

The cycle is an interval of time in the development of the economy, during which there is an increase in the production of goods and services, and then a contraction, recession, depression, recovery and, finally, growth again.

Scientific heritage of N. D. Kondratiev and the present. Getting acquainted with the works of N. D. Kondratiev, we find in them questions that concern us today.

It would be wrong to look for ready-made answers to the questions posed by modern life in these works. Time is irreversible, and each period of historical development, distinguished by its originality and uniqueness, requires its own decisions. But the progress of science is the more successful, the deeper their mind penetrated into the intricacies of economic and social processes.

The scientific heritage of N. D. Kondratiev was far from fully appreciated. In the world scientific community, only one, albeit the most important, part of his legacy, the concept of "great cycles", has become known. In the homeland of the scientist, it turned out to be completely forgotten for half a century. Only now, in connection with the reprinting of his works and publications of previously unknown manuscripts, the legacy of the great thinker appears before us in all its volume, diversity and richness.

Life and creation. Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev was born on March 4 (17), 1892 in the center of European Russia - in the village of Galuevskaya, Kineshma district, Kostroma province (now Ivanovo region).

He studied at various schools and colleges, attended courses, then passed external examinations for a matriculation certificate at the Kostroma gymnasium. Since 1910 N. D. Kondratiev - student of the law faculty of St. Petersburg University.

The scientific abilities of N. D. Kondratiev were noticed, and he was left at the university to prepare for a professorship in the department of political economy and statistics. He actively participates in the preparation of the All-Russian Council of Peasants' Deputies, and makes presentations on the food issue.

After the dissolution of the Constituent Assembly in early 1918. N. D. Kondratiev moves to Moscow.

In 1920, N. D. Kondratiev headed the institute for the study of national economic conditions (Conjuncture Institute), which was created at the same time, which soon turned into an authoritative research center.

In 1922 The fundamental work of N. D. Kondratiev “The market for grain and its regulation during the war and revolution” is published in the publishing house “Novaya Derevnya”.

In the same year, his extensive study " world economy and its conjuncture during and after the war”, in which he first mentions the great cycles that later became famous.

Soon, ND Kondratiev's scientific interests were focused on questions of statics and dynamics, conjuncture in the broadest sense.

N. D. Kondratiev, without changing - as a scientist and citizen - his views and convictions, he actively joined the process of updating the Soviet economy.

In 1928, N. D. Kondratiev was fired from the Market Institute. In 1930 N. D. Kondratiev was arrested. While under investigation, he continued his scientific work.

Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev consciously connected his life and fate with the fate of Russia. He was the son of his time, and as a true scientist, he was characterized by quests and doubts, putting forward original, but not fully proven hypotheses. To perceive him as a contemporary, to argue with him as if he were alive - this means recognizing his greatness.

1.2 Scientific essence of N. D. Kondratiev’s “great cycles”

Cycles of Kondratieff. The development of the theory of long waves began in 1887, when the English scientist H. Clark drew attention to the 54-year gap between the crises of 1793 and 1847. he suggested that this gap is not accidental. W. Jevons was the first to involve the statistics of oscillations in the analysis of long waves in order to explain a phenomenon new to science. The original statistical development of materials is contained in the works of Dutch scientists who considered the technical process as a factor of cyclicity.

A special place in the development of the theory of cyclicity belongs to the Russian scientist N. D. Kondratiev. His research covers the development of England, France and the United States over a period of 100-150 years. He summarized material from the end of the 18th century. (1790) on such indicators as the average level of commodity prices, interest on capital, nominal wages, turnover foreign trade, mining and consumption of coal, production of pig iron and lead, i.e., in essence, he carried out a multivariate analysis economic growth. As a result of research, N. D. Kondratiev identified the following large cycles:

I cycle: from 1787 to 1814 - an upward wave, from 1814 to 1851 - a downward wave;

II cycle: from 1844 to 1875 - an upward wave, from 1870 to 1896 - a downward wave;

III cycle: from 1896 to 1920 - upward wave.

Kondratiev connected the beginning of a great rise with the massive introduction of new technologies into production, the involvement of new countries in the world economy, and changes in the volume of gold production. During this period, unemployment decreases, wages and labor productivity increase. These processes affect the entire economy, change the lifestyle of people. In the initial period, local wars can give additional impetus to economic growth. As the cyclical upswing develops, wars become more destructive. Many major social upheavals occur at the end of the "big" upswing, as well as at the bottom of the cycle.

Evidence that the economy is approaching the top of the “big” cycle is emerging against the backdrop of abundance of shortages of individual goods, shifts in the structure of income distribution, rising production costs, slowing down growth in profits, etc.

Each "big" upswing is followed by a fairly short period when the economy is preparing for the coming long downturn. At the same time, the appearance of prosperity remains: people are still full of hope, I borrow easily, but problems are accumulating. The accumulated contradictions inevitably come out: there is an excess of production capacity, there are mass liquidations of enterprises, unemployment is growing, prices are falling. Kondratiev especially emphasized the depressed state of agriculture as one of the main harbingers of a long recession.

The rise of the first large cycle Kondratiev associated with the industrial revolution in England, the second - with the development of railway transport, the third - with the introduction of electricity, telephone and radio.

The greatest scientific merit of N. D. Kondratiev was an attempt to construct a theoretical socio-economic system that itself can generate long-term fluctuations.

The concept of long waves N.D. Kondratieff in the 30s. provoked a heated controversy in Russia. Supporters of the concept of the automatic collapse of capitalism accused him of the fact that, according to his concept, capitalism was recognized as having mechanisms for self-propulsion and a way out of economic structural crises. N. D. Kondratiev turned out to be right!

The hypothesis of “big waves of conjuncture”, put forward by N. D. Kondratiev in 1926, has been in the focus of attention of researchers of cyclicity since the 1970s.

"Long waves" are not fluctuations: crises in a "big wave" do not necessarily reflect an absolute decline in production. This is a change in growth rates around long-term trends (hence the term "wave" instead of the term "cycle"). And the phases of long waves are different: recovery, long rise, big crisis. The lack of statistical materials so far allows us to trace only 2-4 "long waves". Nevertheless, superimpositions of the phases of "long waves" on the phases of other cycles are being studied. I believe, for example, that the Great Depression of 1929-1933. was a coincidence of the crisis of the industrial cycle with the completion ("pit") of the "long wave" in the economies of the Western countries.

The reasons that give rise to "long waves", as well as the material basis of their periodicity, cannot be considered completely clear for the time being. The periodicity of the Kondratiev waves cannot be based on the usual replacements - the renewal of equipment and technologies in the Jouglar cycles. Here we should talk about a whole series of replacements, in the course of which a certain specific technological method of production functions. Apparently, the replacement of one “long wave” by another is a transition from one technological mode of production to another. There are also qualitative changes in the workforce and the equipment system, and fundamental innovations in organizational and economic relations, in the field of management - a whole structural revolution. In the restoration phase, the passive part of the means of labor is also renewed, which, during the transition from one medium-term cycle to another, is mostly preserved.

The need to move to the next "long wave" is correlated with 1980-1990. It is noteworthy that during this period in a number of countries there was a slowdown in growth and even a decrease in labor productivity. This calls for a radical improvement in education and training, updating obsolete infrastructure elements. National economy- dams, power plants, harbors, airports and similar structures that have been serving for decades. Huge investments, especially state ones, are required here.

On the nature of long waves.Despite the fact that long Kondratiev waves (K-waves) are intensively studied by economic science, they are still considered one of the mysterious phenomena of world civilization. Attempts are being made to study K-waves in earlier periods. There is no certainty in relation to the problem of the connection of K-waves with the type of social structure. The well-known thesis that K-waves are inherent, first of all, in the capitalist economy, is in fact extremely vague, since there is no consensus on what capitalism is and how it originated

It is important to note that, unlike ordinary business cycles, which directly affect the behavior of individuals, businesses, etc., K-waves appear as some kind of unreal force that is not directly felt. If business cycles are expressed in fluctuations in the interest rate, inflation rate, production levels and thus affect specific economic interests, then K-waves are associated with long-term trends and the frequency of change (50-60 years) of these indicators and for this reason go beyond economic susceptibility, real economic relations.

The version of N. D. Kondratiev: “... It can be assumed that the material basis of large cycles is the wear, change and expansion of basic capital goods that require a long time and huge funds for their production. The change and expansion of the fund of these goods do not proceed smoothly, but in jolts, another expression of which is the big waves of the conjuncture.

The position of N. Kondratiev raises a natural question: why is the hypothesis initially set that the reproduction of cost-intensive capital goods is carried out in shocks? Why is smooth movement not allowed? In one case, the reproduction of cost-intensive capital goods indicated by N. Kondratyev becomes the material basis for large cycles, in the other (smooth version) it excludes cyclic movement. Thus, this version does not clarify the causes of the emergence of K-waves, although its author was the first in world economic science to provide convincing statistical evidence of their existence.

I adhere to the following position: K-waves represent certain historical excesses caused by various exogenous factors, if we keep in mind the historical period before the industrial revolution. This point of view is confirmed by the results of studies of price dynamics. K-waves did not differ in regularity, their duration in the 16th century. was 30-36 years old, more or less repetitive K-waves arose in the 17th - 18th centuries. However, the situation changed dramatically at the end of the 18th century, when exogenous, largely random K-waves of the past period provoked the appearance of endogenous, regular K-waves of a new type.

It is known that at the end of the XVIII century. in Europe and North America, a depression broke out associated with the action of the last K-wave of an exogenous type, followed by the first industrial K-wave. This depression, like all the others, was accompanied by a fall in prices for factors of production, a decrease in the interest rate, and the bankruptcy of a number of manufacturing industries. But its difference from the previous ones was that the greatest inventions of human civilization had already been made, which led to an unprecedented increase in labor productivity and a decrease in production costs.

This circumstance contributed to the rapid development of factory production. The free capital needed in such a situation arose not so much from its previous accumulation in the form of savings, but due to the fact that super-efficient factories easily defeated the manufacturing workshops in the competition. The ruin of the latter (or their radical reconstruction) was promoted as a redistribution of the flows of raw materials and labor resources in favor of the nascent factories, and the free flow of capital in the same direction.

So, the depression that preceded the first industrial K-wave prepared the material conditions for intensive “pumping” factory fixed capital into the economies of Western Europe and North America. This period lasted approximately 25-30 years and formed the upward part of the first K-wave of the endogenous type.

ChapterIIThe Kondratiev riddle: unfinished theory of dynamics and methodological problems of economics

2.1 Statics, dynamics and large cycles of the conjuncture

Statics, dynamics and large conjuncture cycles. Among the most important and well-known scientific merits of N. D. Kondratiev is the development of the problem of large cycles, or waves of the conjuncture, called "Kondratiev cycles".

The time that has passed since he first made a detailed presentation of his views on this issue has highlighted the depth and originality of his concept.

Interest in certain aspects of the problem of long waves is largely determined by the social conditions that take shape at various historical stages. In the period of the 1970s and 1980s, as noted by a number of researchers, discussions around this problem were due to the development of scientific and technological revolution and were devoted to identifying the connection between the scientific and technical process and long-term fluctuations in economic activity.

At present and in the near future, it seems to me, the problem of long-term cycles will be significantly expanded. It will cover the general problems of socio-economic progress, as well as issues of cyclic development of culture, changes in behavioral stereotypes and generational change, due in large part to the appeal to traditions and the memory of ancestors. We can also expect serious studies of the connection between long-term cycles of the economic situation and cosmic processes, in particular, with periods of solar activity.

Analyzing the views of N. D. Kondratiev on large cycles, one must take into account that they were a logical continuation and completion of his teaching on statics and dynamics.

The very statics and dynamics D. Kondratiev considers reality not as properties of the object under study, but as special methods (“points of view”) of its study. "Under static, - he wrote, - we understand a theory that considers economic phenomena essentially outside the category of change over time. On the contrary, under dynamic we understand the theory that studies economic phenomena in the process of their change in time.

After establishing the differences between statics and dynamics, the next logical step is to analyze the dynamic processes themselves. At the same time, N. D. Kondratiev introduces the “delimitation of dynamic processes into evolutionary (otherwise unique, or irreversible) and undulating (repeatable, or reversible)”, which is of fundamental importance.

Under the economic conjuncture of each this moment he understands "the direction and degree of change in the totality of elements of national economic life in comparison with the previous moment."

In his report "The question of the concepts of economic statics, dynamics and conjuncture" he formulated three main tasks for studying the conjuncture.

The first of them consists of describing and establishing the actual state and changes in the conjuncture. Self-fluctuations of the conjuncture can be both regular and irregular. Regular, in turn, are divided into seasonal and cyclic. At the same time, one should distinguish between small cycles, covering about 7-11 years, and large cycles, covering from 40 to 50 years. [see fig. 2.1]

The second task is to explain the course of the conjuncture and build its theory.

Finally, the third task is the forecast of changes in the conjuncture.

Having determined the tasks of studying the conjuncture, N. D. Kondratiev proceeded directly to the development of the question of its large cycles.

Summing up the results of his analysis, N. D. Kondratiev formulates the final conclusion, emphasizing the probability of the existence of large cycles: “Taking into account the positive arguments that were developed above, we come to the following conclusion: according to the available data, it can be assumed that the existence of large conjuncture cycles is very likely.”

The recognition of the very fact of the existence of large cycles and the understanding that they do not arise by chance required the creation of a theory of large cycles.

According to Kondratiev, the market economy is never in a state of perfect equilibrium, and its dynamics is subject to undulating fluctuations. If we talk about the big cycle, then its upward wave is connected, according to N. D. Kondratiev, with the renewal and expansion of the main capital goods. The enormous predictive and therefore practical potential of the theory of large cycles should be emphasized.

The riddle of N. D. Kondratiev. An example of what It was heard from Kondratiev, certainly serves the concept of long waves. It is not surprising that abroad in economic publications his name is associated almost exclusively with this concept, this topic also prevails in domestic publications of the last fifteen years.

The period in which N. D. Kondratiev’s creative activity peaked was one of the most fruitful in the development of economic science in the 20th century. It is customary to call it the first “years of high theory”. On the one hand, it is inherent in the desire for a strict logic of abstract deductive science, exploring some universal patterns of human behavior in the field of management and pursuing analytical goals. On the other hand, it is characterized by a practical orientation, forcing the economist to deal with empirical facts and data, ideas about the economy as a social phenomenon.

The theory of general economic equilibrium is the pinnacle of the abstract approach and the basis of modern economic theory. She focused on studying the state in which all participants are satisfied with the achieved result, and, therefore, there are no internal reasons for changing it. The abstract nature of this theory opened up considerable possibilities in the field of formal analysis and at the same time made it a target of criticism.

At the same time, the equilibrium theory itself, Kondratiev noted, does not yet provide an explanation for large cycles. “Their main reason lies in the mechanism of accumulation, accumulation and dissipation of capital sufficient to create new basic production forces.”

It was the theory of the cycle that proved to be the arena of the struggle between two opposing methodological positions in the 1920s and 1930s, and it was no coincidence that it was the problem of the cycle that determined the beginning of N. D. Kondratiev’s theoretical studies.

Kondratiev proposed to change not the model of individual behavior, but the analysis tools - to use the statistical and probabilistic principle.

The methodological and theoretical super-task of N. D. Kondratiev can be formulated as follows: the creation of the foundations of the theory of social economy and, on its basis, the theory of socio-economic dynamics, an integral part of which is the theory of cycles, including large ones.

Already in the very first work devoted to cycles - "The World Economy During and After the War" (1922) - Kondratiev defines the fundamental points of his methodological position. From the statistical point of view, in essence, he identifies the theory of conjuncture with the theory of cycles and calls it an integral part of the theory of dynamics.

He identifies the theory of conjuncture with the theory of cycles and calls it an integral part of the theory of dynamics.

In his works on the problems of cycles, Kondratiev advocates the empirical approach in its broad interpretation in the spirit of Mitchell. Defining the area of ​​his research as the theory of dynamics, he believed that its task was to establish patterns between the elements of the economic system in their change in real time that these elements are characterized quantitative indicators that the regularities between them are manifested, first of all, through statistical dependencies. The practical significance of a theory is determined by the possibilities that it opens up for forecasting in the sense that it is presented in his articles "The Problem of Foresight" and "Plan and Foresight".

In works devoted to cycles and conjuncture, Kondratiev spoke as a supporter of not only the inductive-empirical method of creating a theory, but also a pluralistic approach to the analysis of the causes of long-term cyclical fluctuations. When explaining the mechanism of the cycle, he pointed to innovation, the interconnectedness of areas, the specifics of the distribution system, the features of the functioning banking system established relations in agriculture, etc.

Being a supporter of the philosophy of positivism, Kondratiev proceeded from the unity of the sciences, and in the conditions of the rapid development of the natural sciences, he saw in their methods an object for borrowing by the social sciences.

For Kondratiev, the statistical approach is not a simple technical tool for analysis, but a way of seeing reality, which also determines the nature of science. This way of seeing involves the initial combination of theoretical and empirical approaches.

The statistical approach allows Kondratiev to keep the individual as the initial element of the economy and at the same time focus on the analysis of the economy as a social phenomenon. At the same time, “sociality” does not have any class, cultural or ethical connotation, but is solely a consequence of the specifics of the interaction of a large number of subjects. Such an approach assumes that economics studies the social nature of economic activity, and its task is to establish patterns that are the result of the operation of the law of large numbers and which manifest themselves to the extent that this law operates.

Kondratiev, of course, hoped to show that his approach opens up the prospect of analyzing not only statics, but also dynamics.

The origin of the theory of long waves: theoretical foundations.N. Kondratiev formulated the hypothesis of the presence of long waves in economic processes when Marxism had not yet turned into a fully institutionalized theory in academic circles.

Kondratiev's key position about the reversibility of certain economic processes was acceptable only within a limited period of time.

The theory of long waves ran counter to several ideologies developed during the development of Marxism in Russia in the 1930s (for example, “a special kind of depression” and “a general crisis of capitalism”), which were significantly inferior in their depth to the analysis of Western economists dedicated to the Great Depression of 1929 - 1933 gg. the hypothesis of the existence of long waves implicitly assumed the possibility of a new long-term economic recovery, which was incompatible with the idea of ​​intensifying the destructive impact of the crisis, which prevailed in the 1930s and was popular until recently. By its very essence, the theory of long waves was alien to the form and style of economic theory in Soviet conditions.

TDV from the point of view of chronology. Each cycle is a certain period of time in economic life. The selection of different cycles makes sense only on the condition that their functional essence is homogeneous and repetitive.

Once allocated, the loop becomes special kind chronology. Economic time begins to be measured not in years, but in cycles. This raises the question: to what extent is it fair to use such a chronology over ever-increasing periods of time? The 10-year cycle can still be considered as homogeneous, the recurrence of events gives grounds for generalizations (and theorizing). However, long waves are too large, cover entire historical epochs, and raise doubts as to whether it is possible in this case to build theoretical concepts based on the recurrence of events.

Degree of maturity of TDV. For 60 years, the theory of long waves has not managed to reach the stage of stability. TJV is still at the stage where attempts are made to generalize disparate explanations of individual phenomena in the absence of a common methodological framework. The self-existence of long waves is questioned.

Attempts to synthesize TDWs with other directions turned out to be superficial and theoretically groundless. In the theory of business cycles, similar efforts have been made since the 1930s and have attracted it to a more complete incorporation into general economic theory.

Is TDW the theory of cycles? If so, then it must have certain properties characteristic of theories of this class. In fact, many of them are missing.

To what extent is TJV consistent with the main tenets of the classical definition of business cycle theory?

Since the first is a theory of a more general class, it must include all the main elements of the second. As a rule, long waves are non-periodic, multi-variant (covering the total economic activity) and synchronous with a wide variety of processes. At the same time, unlike business cycles, they can consist of shorter cycles. The theory of long waves is mostly non-linear, since it assumes different values ​​of economic parameters in different phases of the cycle. In relation to scientific and technical progress, this means that at the stages of depression and recovery, economic behavior is qualitatively different (it is asymmetric). Thus, TJV emphasizes the importance of the stage of depression as the most fruitful, not only from the point of view of constructing long-term time series, but from the point of view of theory as a whole. Such an approach is not typical for the theory of business cycles, in which non-linear models are used, as a rule, as auxiliary ones.

There are no reference cycles in TDV. In the theory of business cycles, there is a widely accepted division that underlies the dating of cycles. It is very difficult to date the cycles in the TDV, since the positions of experts on this issue differ significantly.

The economic policy implications of TJV and business cycle theory are also incomparable. For the latter, the most important thing is the rationale for economic decisions, the recommendations of the TJV are deliberately general in nature and, as a rule, relate to an area of ​​​​structural policy that is not so important for the current economic activity of governments. .

2.2 Development of the ideas of N. D. Kondratiev in the theories of long waves of innovation

The concept of "innovation". Types of innovations . It should be said that at present there is no generally accepted definition of the concept of "innovation". As in the concept of Kondratiev, the category of "innovation" is considered in the literature in two ways: as a single act and as a process. In the prevailing case, the category "innovation", considered as a process, covers the cycle "introduction - production".

In the classification of innovations special role, as well as the concept of Kondratiev, belongs to the selection of the most significant, "basic" innovations. In addition, the allocation of "improving" innovations has become widespread. In the theories of long waves, such concepts as political, institutional, social innovations are often used. Innovations are also divided into labor-, capital- and material-saving, innovations-products and innovations-processes, innovations in "old" and "new" industries, etc.

Development of the ideas of N. D. Kondratiev . The idea of ​​the existence of large cycles of conjuncture Kondratiev put forward in 1922 in his work "The World Economy and Its Conjuncture During and After the War". The final design of the concept of Kondratiev refers to 1926 - 1928.

The contribution of Kondratiev to the development of the theory of long waves cannot be overestimated. In his works, the factor of time really became an economic category in the full sense of the word.

Kondratiev divided the dynamic processes that characterize the development of the economy into flowing water direction (unique, irreversible) and flowing in waves (repeatable, reversible) processes. On the basis of statistical processing of the dynamics of a number of cost and natural indicators of the economic development of England, France, Germany and the United States for about 140 years (from the end of the 18th century to the beginning of the 20th century), Kondratiev comes to the conclusion that within this period there are two and a half large cycles of the conjuncture with a duration each of them is on average 57 years old.

In accordance with the concept of Kondratiev, the mechanism of a large cycle unfolds as follows. With the accumulation of capital sufficient to update the technical basis of production and form a new level of productive forces, an upward wave of a large cycle begins. It is characterized by the intensification of the competitive struggle for sales markets, the growth of social tension. In such conditions, investment growth rates decrease, the amount of free capital decreases, which affects the pace of economic development and the dynamics of market indicators. A transition to a downward wave of a large cycle is taking place. During this period, in the process of capital accumulation, as the prerequisites for further improvement of engineering and technology are created, the foundations are created for the transition to a new upward wave of a large cycle.

The undoubted merit of Kondratiev was a significant expansion of the empirical base for the study of long-term fluctuations, their analysis from the point of view of equilibrium theory, an indication of the relationship of long waves with the process of capital accumulation and technical progress, as well as with the development of science, the study, within the framework of the concept of long waves, not only economic ones, but also other social historical processes.

Of particular importance were the ideas of Kondratiev for the development of one of the most important areas of the theory of long waves - the theory of long waves of innovations, the founder of which is traditionally considered I. Schumpeter. The work of Kondratiev played a significant role in studying the role of scientific and technological progress in the mechanism of long waves.

The merit of Kondratiev in the development of this issue is as follows: firstly, he considers scientific and technical changes not as a set of random phenomena, but as a pattern (“correctness”), although not as the cause of large cycles. waves with the technical development of production, namely with scientific and technical progress, involving in the analysis data on scientific and technical discoveries and inventions, showing the wave-like nature of the dynamics. Thirdly, he emphasized that "in the question of technical inventions, it is necessary to distinguish between the moment of their appearance and the moment of their application in practice" .

Kondratiev considered scientific and technical changes in the mechanism of long waves in unity with the socio-economic conditions of production under capitalism. He emphasized that the use of inventions and discoveries in practice is associated with the reorganization of industrial relations. Changes in the field of technology, according to Kondratiev, imply two conditions: the presence of scientific and technical discoveries and inventions; availability of economic opportunities for the application of these discoveries and inventions in practice.

“For about two decades before the start of the big cycle upswing, there has been a revival in the field of technical inventions. Before and at the very beginning of the upward wave, there is a widespread use of these inventions in the field of industrial practice ... ".

The main provisions put forward by Kondratiev in connection with the analysis of scientific and technological progress in the concept of large cycles have aroused and continue to arouse keen interest. Many of the questions raised are still open and widely discussed. They have not lost their relevance.

The concept of large cycles of the Kondratiev conjuncture is analyzed by many researchers.

As the most significant provisions characteristic of the current stage of development of the concept of long waves of innovation, in my opinion, the following can be distinguished:

analysis of the causality of long waves;

analysis of the mechanism of the innovation process in the long term;

formulation and in-depth study of the issue of the nature of the dynamics and the role of science in the process of long-term development;

study of the relationship of the innovation process with the socio-economic conditions of production;

Modern representatives of the theory of long waves of innovation pay much attention to the study of the causation of long waves. The following approaches deserve special attention: firstly, the predominant consideration as the cause of the long-wave phenomenon of scientific, technical and technological changes in production, when innovations act as the main cause of long-wave fluctuations in the economy. Secondly, the search for the cause of long waves in the economic mechanism of the transformation of technical changes into long-term economic fluctuations.

The question of the causality of long waves is the subject of independent research.

Concluding a brief review of the main problems posed at the time by Kondratiev and developed in modern concepts of long waves of innovations, I would like to emphasize that many of them remain relevant and require further analysis and reflection.

World significance of Kondratiev's discoveries. The discovery of Kondratiev contributed to the formation of a certain trend in modern economics. N. D. Kondratiev’s version: “By cyclical movement, we mean such a development of the economic system, for example, in the direction of an upswing, in which the forces that cause it accumulate and reinforce each other, but then gradually weaken until at a certain moment they are replaced by forces acting in the opposite direction” and that the reason for the cyclicity and its most terrible phase - the crisis "... depends to a certain extent on the duration of the service life of non-expendable capital property and on the normal growth rates in a given historical period."

It is worth remembering here that 42 Nobel Prize winners in economics received this high award for economic and mathematical models, the task of which, directly or indirectly, is to smooth out the peaks of the undulating movement of small, medium and large economic cycles in order to ensure the rhythm of production in the world economy. Thus, the American economist V. Leontiev proposed an intersectoral balance to combat the cyclical nature of economic dynamics. According to this method, all economic activity of any country is analyzed on the basis of specific statistical data, imbalances and imbalances are weighed on this basis, as well as on the basis of the "government order" or "order" of consumers.

Based on the Kondratiev theory of long cycles, individual economists of the world reflect on the modern future state of economic dynamics. However, it is clear that the main products of the world economy - cars, computers, consumer electronics - are "overripe" products. It is this fact, more than any other, that influences the shift from the mass production paradigm to the mass production to order paradigm. And this can be achieved with the help of "cooperative competition" - the key to achieving economic efficiency while respecting economic ethics in order to increase the well-being of each individual. All this was in tune with the ideas of N. D. Kondratiev, who laid the foundation for the theory of large cycles of economic dynamics.

Conclusion

N. D. Kondratiev made an invaluable contribution to the study of large cycles of the conjuncture, which brought him the greatest fame and were later called long Kondratiev waves. They formed the basis of numerous studies of the problems of cyclicity, carried out in different countries peace. Using the provisions of this theory, the scientist considered the patterns of the emergence of major inventions, innovations, the emergence of social cataclysms, etc.

Many ideas of N. D. Kondratiev sound very modern. They can help in solving the problems of financial forecasting, updating the methodology of statistics, and developing current and future socio-economic policies.

According to Kondratiev, "big cycles" are characterized by four main "correctness":

Before and at the beginning of an upward wave of a large cycle, serious changes take place in the economic life of society (changes in technology, production and exchange, and in money circulation).

The largest number of wars and revolutions falls on the upward wave of a large cycle.

The downward wave of the big cycle is characterized by the depression of agriculture.

An upward wave of a large cycle helps to reduce the duration of depressions in ordinary industrial cycles and increase the intensity of their upswings; with a downward wave, depressions increase, and the intensity of upswings decreases.

N. D. Kondratiev explained the existence of large cycles by different periods of functioning of various economic goods, the production of which requires different time.

Some scientists emphasize in the creative heritage of N. D. Kondratiev that all his enormous talent as an economist manifested itself precisely because he was primarily an extra. The Kondratiev cycles themselves have a statistical basis. The scientist associated statistics with the solution of the problem of "statification of political economy" and the strengthening of the role of quantitative analysis in it.

There is a relationship between the Kondratiev waves and the change of eras in world politics. Now we are at the beginning of a new wave, and the information industry is becoming the leader in technological development.

The role of Kondratiev's theory of long waves is high in terms of predicting the emergence of crisis situations. The development of the theory and methods for predicting cyclical development, its modeling and foreseeing the future based on the theory of large cycles is also high.

Features of the activity of N. D. Kondratiev lies in the fact that in his scientific recommendations he always proceeded from a thorough analysis of reality.

The creative legacy of the scientist retains its relevance for solving current problems; on its basis, it is possible to expand cooperation with foreign scientists. It is very important to contribute to the development and further deepening of the ideas of N. D. Kondratiev in various branches of knowledge and areas of practical activity.

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Attachment 1

Rice. 1.1 Phases of the business cycle

Application2

Rice. 2.1 "Long waves" Kondratiev

1815 1875 1915 1955 2005

1780 1850 1890 1930 19702030

The theory of long waves is a theory of economic cycles, lasting from 40 to 60 years, developed by Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev.

Kondratiev's theory of long waves

At least since the industrial revolution in England, economic development has been significantly affected by large economic cycles, also known as "long Kondratiev waves" - in honor of their largest researcher, Russian economist Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev. N. Kondratiev should have shared this honor with another outstanding economist of the 20th century, J. Schumpeter, the author of the fundamental works "Business Cycles" and "The Theory of Economic Development". Kondratiev and Schumpeter were not pioneers of large cycles.

Their existence was noticed by W. Jevons (1884), K. Wicksell (1898), M. Tugan-Baranovsky (1894) and many others. What is the merit of N. D. Kondratiev? In his analysis, he covered the entire history of capitalism, using the statistics of England, Germany and other countries. Kondratiev singled out two groups of economic processes: undulating (reversible) and evolutionary (irreversible), thereby developing the theory of long waves. It is the latter that determine the general direction of development (trend), while the former are cyclical.

He made a serious attempt to combine cyclical processes into a single system, highlighting:

• seasonal cycles (up to 1 year);
• small (2-4 years);
• commercial and industrial (7-11 years);
• long cycles (50-60 years).

This approach is now widely accepted. Table 2.1 gives a modern understanding of the system of business cycles.

Table 1. Conditional distribution of oscillations by wavelength.

It was the breadth and universality of the approach that predetermined the high appreciation of his work by the outstanding economists of the 20th century J. Keynes, S. Kuznets, W. Mitchell, I. Fischer, J. Schumpeter. Thanks to Kondratiev, the great cycles of the conjuncture were universally recognized.

The next step in the development of the theory of long waves was made by J. Schumpeter, who connected cycles with innovations (innovations) and their unevenness. Thus, we got an explanation of the problem of uneven economic growth rates, the activity of the state and its impact on economic growth rates, and many others.

What are long business cycles? Most economists agree that large cycles are inherent in the industrial system, and therefore the beginning of the first cycle coincides with the beginning of the industrial revolution (about 1790). The peak of the first wave falls approximately on 1813-1815. The second wave covers the period from the end of the 40s of the last century to the 90s (the peak of the second wave is approximately 1870), the third wave covers the period from the end of the 90s of the XIX century to the end of the 30s of the XX (peak - around 1920), the fourth wave lasted from the end of the 30s to the end of the 80s of the XX century; the beginning of the last, fifth wave falls on the 90s of the XX century.

Each new wave is caused by major shifts in the development of productive forces, the use of fundamentally new technologies, which gradually causes the reconstruction of other industries, large structural shifts in the economy, a change in the functions of the state, a change in technological leaders, fluctuations in key performance indicators, etc. In order to visualize large waves more clearly, we present a simplified version of the scheme (Table 2.2) by the English economist X. Freeman.

Table 2. Some characteristics of large economic waves.

Big cycles	Content	Main carrier industries	Countries - technological leaders
I	Early mechanization	Textile industry and textile machinery	Netherlands, UK, Belgium
II	Steam engine and railways	Railways, construction, mechanical engineering	UK, France, Belgium, Germany, USA
III	Electrical engineering and heavy engineering	Electric power industry, mechanical engineering, basic chemistry	Germany, USA, UK, France, etc.
IV	Mass production	Automotive, tractor engineering, production of durable goods, synthetic materials	USA, Germany and other EEC countries, Japan, Sweden, etc.
V	Informatics and telecommunications	Electronics, computers, robotics, information services	Japan, USA, EEC, Taiwan, Korea, etc.

In each wave, two main stages are distinguished: upward and downward (according to N. Kondratiev). What patterns do they have? Before and at the beginning? each wave, there are profound changes in technology and production technologies, the involvement of new countries in world economic relations, and the growth of social upheavals (wars and revolutions). The upward stage is characterized by an acceleration in the rate of economic growth, an increase in the average rate of profit, wages, falling prices. The second (downward) stage of the long cycle is characterized by a slowdown in economic growth, a fall in the average rate of profit, an increase in the average price level, a depression in agriculture, and sharper fluctuations in the industrial (average) cycle. At the end of a big wave, the most significant technical discoveries and inventions fall.

From the point of view of Kondratiev and especially Schumpeter, such changes in dynamics are explained by the fact that the widespread development of new technologies (which implies an increase in entrepreneurial activity) requires a rather significant structural restructuring of the economy, the search for new sources of raw materials and energy resources. The introduction of new technologies initially causes an increase in the return (profitability) of production factors. The productivity of labor and the marginal productivity of labor, capital, and land are growing.

Accordingly, all types of income grow: wages, interest, entrepreneurial income, rent, quasi-rent (profit). Gradually, the possibilities of this generation of technology, developed resources are exhausted, and the law of diminishing returns begins to manifest itself with full force. The aggravation of the problems and contradictions of the economy stimulates the search for new solutions. That is why the discoveries "concentrate" in the down part of the big cycle, and their development gives impetus to a new wave.

N. Kondratiev, who analyzed the 2.5 waves, considering the growth of social upheavals as a regularity of the upward stages of a large cycle, illustrates it with the following historical events. The beginning of the I big cycle: the declaration of independence of the United States, the French bourgeois revolution, the Anglo-French war, the Russian-Turkish war, the Napoleonic wars, etc. The beginning of the II cycle: the revolution of 1848-1849 in France and Germany, in other countries, the Crimean War, the Civil the war in the USA, the Paris Commune, the formation of the German Empire, etc.

The first half of the III large cycle: Spanish-American, Anglo-Boer, Russian-Japanese and other wars, First World War, revolutions in Russia, Germany, Turkey, Hungary, reorganization of the map of Europe according to the Treaty of Versailles. The first half of the IV cycle was accompanied by the Second World War, revolutions in China, a number of Eastern European countries, the collapse of the colonial system and the reorganization of not only the map of Europe, but of the whole world. The beginning of the fifth great cycle of Kondratiev is accompanied by a new reorganization of the map of Europe: the liquidation of the socialist camp, the growth of conflicts on social grounds, and the change in the geopolitical situation in the world.

Thus, economic growth and socio-economic progress, expressed in the growth of well-being, culture, education of members of society, is uneven. It is accompanied by less or more profound fluctuations in the economy. Moreover, these fluctuations themselves initiate economic growth, that is, they are not only a consequence, but also a source of the latter. Social upheaval is not so much a consequence of growth, but the result of people's inability to recognize the need for change and adapt to it.

Introduction. 3

1. Kondratiev's theory of long waves. four

2. Criticism and further development of the theory. 6

Conclusion. 7

List of used sources. eight

Introduction

More than 80 years have passed since the first theoretical substantiation of long cycles (waves) in the economy by Nikolai Kondratiev, but discussions about them have not subsided so far.

The researches of the scientist were not perceived unequivocally. Even during his lifetime, he faced sharp criticism of his theory, among which was both professional and purely ideological. Even the scientist himself did not consider his point of view undeniable: "What I want to state below is only the first attempt, the first hypothesis of explaining these cycles."

The theory of long waves in economics is probably one of the least studied and most controversial issues. Although there is no firm empirical confirmation of the cycles, one can see in the dynamics of the last 200-250 years long-term periods of ups and downs in the situation, acceleration and slowdown in the pace of development. However, there is still no unified theory of long waves that would explain the causes, mechanisms, and logic of cyclic processes. In general, there is no consensus among economists as to whether periods of increased and decreased activity should be seen as manifestations of long cycles, or to provide them with a different explanation.

In addition to theoretical disagreements, low reliability and a small amount of macroeconomic data of individual countries in the XX century. complicates the empirical study of the phenomenon and forces one to resort to a qualitative analysis of the early period of the formation of capitalism.

Despite the rather wide range of opinions regarding the existence of long waves, the current consensus among economists tends to recognize them, if not within the mainstream of economic thought, then at least among the leading alternative concepts.

1. Kondratiev's theory of long waves

The idea of ​​the existence of large cycles was expressed by Kondratiev in 1922 in the book "The World Economy and Its Conjuncture During and After the War". Having processed a huge statistical material, he outlined his theory in the article "Large cycles of the conjuncture" in 1925, and later in the course of a discussion of this problem at the Institute of Economics in 1926.

In his research, Kondratiev empirically discovered cyclical patterns in the dynamics of many economic indicators of Western countries based on the analysis interest rates, prices of capital, wages, foreign trade, production and consumption of iron, lead, coal in England, France, Germany and the USA for a 140-year period from the 80s. XVIII from. until the 20s. XX here. . Based on this statistical analysis, Kondratiev found 2.5 wavelengths with a duration of 48-60 years. Later, the followers of the scientist continued to study long cycles, on the basis of which the 4th and 5th cycles were identified.

In the course of the analysis, Kondratiev discovered four "empirical correctnesses" that were inherent in the cyclical process:

Before the beginning of a new long wave, and sometimes at its very beginning, there are significant changes in the conditions of management in society. They are expressed in profound changes in technology and technology, changes in monetary circulation and the attraction of new countries to the world economy.

The periods of rise of a large wave are characterized by greater social unrest in the life of society than periods of decline.

Waves of decline coincide with periods of prolonged agricultural depression.

Medium cycles are superimposed on the big waves of the conjuncture, which strengthen or weaken them. So, during the periods of the rise of a long wave, the growth phases of the average cycles last longer, and the fall phases are shorter. Conversely, during periods of long-term decline, upswings are short-lived and downswings are usually longer and deeper.

One of the main achievements of Kondratiev was that, unlike others, he did not believe that "correctness" (technological changes, wars, revolutions, the discovery of new territories) were random phenomena. The scientist considered them naturally inherent in capitalist development. As Kondratiev noted, “they indicate that large waves of dynamics generated by random, external conditions and events ... This point of view is quite significant. cause, or sees chance where there is regularity.

The empirically constructed theory of long waves by M. Kondratiev was as follows. Explaining the material basis of long waves, the scientist conditionally divided all goods and benefits in the economy into three categories according to the duration of their performance of their functions, time and material costs for their production. The first category of goods requires predominantly a short time for production and functions for a very short time. These are raw materials, consumer goods, stocks and more. In the second category, Kondratiev attributed the means of production in the form of machine tools, machines, the service life of which lasts longer, and their production requires a lot of resources and time. Finally, the scientist attributed to the third category the main capital goods that have been functioning for decades and require huge costs for their production. These are the largest buildings, railway lines, canals, bridges. Kondratiev also included the training of highly qualified personnel here.

2. Criticism and further development of the theory

Of course, like any theory, there are weaknesses in Kondratiev's theory of long waves. This is due, first of all, to the fact that the conclusions of the scientist are empirical generalizations of those processes, trends and phenomena that he took into account during the study.

Indeed, the methods used by Nikolai Kondratiev to identify cycles do not allow us to state with certainty about their existence. Uncertainty is also added by the absence of at least more or less reliable statistical material at the end of the 18th and at the beginning of the 19th century. However, this does not mean that large cycles or waves do not exist.

The general idea of ​​innovation and technological theories is that long-term cycles in the economy arise against the background of the emergence, development, dissemination and saturation of innovations. Origin new technology occurs in the previous cycle of economic development. A new ascending wave of a long cycle is associated with the massive distribution and investment in new technologies, the emergence of separate new industries and industry complexes in the economies, or as they are also called mega markets. The downward wave is characterized by the fact that, firstly, the limit of the market capacity is reached, and secondly, the limit of the improvement of the new technology. The combination of these two factors leads to a reduction in the pace of economic activity, aggregate demand, price reductions. The economy enters a period of low activity for a long time, from which only a new innovative breakthrough can lead. Thus, the modern periodization of large cycles gravitates towards the periodization of technological waves.

Conclusion

Undoubtedly, the leading role belongs to the formulation of the problem of large cycles in the economy, which remains unresolved to this day. Although Kondratiev discovered long waves empirically, he also offered a theoretical justification for the mechanism of their development.

From today's standpoint, criticism towards the formal mathematical method used by Kondratiev in his research seems to be justified. It can be argued that long cycles in the economy cannot be detected using the methodology of deviations of economic indicators from the trend, because they (long waves) are included in the structure of the trend itself. However, his theory of the development of long waves, which are caused by the processes of accumulation, concentration and dispersion of capital necessary to create new productive forces, certainly has the right to life. In my opinion, it is the theoretical component that is the strength of Kondratiev's research, because in it the author discovered the deep characteristics of cyclicity, which remain relevant today.

The great merit of Kondratiev is that, considering the economy as a system, he considered it unjustified to explain the cyclicity by only one reason, and considered the whole complex of factors that accompanied and caused this phenomenon. Kondratiev himself did not consider his theory complete, but only the first hypothesis for the explanation of cycles. Further development of the theory of long waves followed the path of its simplification, while the real economic life complicated. Although today the technological-innovative direction in the theory of long waves still remains dominant, scientists are beginning to return to the roots and take into account the entire complexity of the economic system and its dynamics.

List of sources used

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2. National policy of economic development in the context of global economic shifts // Bulletin of the International Nobel Economic Forum. - 2008. - No. 1. - P.17-23.

3. Kondratiev cycles of conjuncture. Reports and discussions at the Institute of Economics. - M., 2008. - 117p.

4. Rumyantseva S.Yu. Long Waves in Economics: A Multivariate Analysis. - St. Petersburg: -Petersburg University, 2003. - 311p.

5. Rumyantseva S.Yu. Theories of conjuncture, economic growth and economic development: perspectives on the analysis of economic dynamics and "lost" branches of economic science // National innovation system of Russia: problems of formation and development. Collection of scientific papers. - M., 2006. - 328s.

6. Fomina Kondratiev in the Russian economy: Monograph // International Fund єva. - M., 2005. - 156s.

7. Hansen 3. Economic cycles and national income. - M.: Publishing house of foreign literature, 2009. - 267p.

1.1 Early explorers of long waves

Long waves in the economy or "large cycles of the conjuncture began to be analyzed by economists in the middle of the 19th century. In 1847, the English scientist H. Clark noted that 54 years had passed between the two world "economic catastrophes" of 1793 and 1847 and suggested that such an interval was not accidental and there must be some "physical" reasons for this phenomenon.

Further, the English scientist W. Jevons noticed recurring long periods of growth and fall in the series of prices he analyzed. However, he could not find an explanation for this phenomenon, a cause common to all cases.

In the 60s of the same century, the theory of cyclic crises was developed by K. Marx. This theory gave impetus to the study of the phenomenon of long waves by Marxist scientists.

In 1901, the Russian Marxist AI Gelfand for the first time formulated that the capitalist economy is characterized by long periods of recession and stagnation. He noted that cyclical crises that occur during the period of recovery are less pronounced, and during the period of recession, on the contrary, they are deeper and longer. The reasons for the rise of the market at the beginning of the twentieth century, this scientist considered the opening of new markets, the introduction of electricity and the growth of gold mining.

Further, after A.I. Gelfand, the Dutch economists of the Marxist persuasion J. Van Gelderen and S. De Wolf were engaged in the study of long waves. Van Gelderen in 1913, relying on a variety of statistics, including both long series of prices and shorter series of production, financial indicators, data on international trade, migration, employment, developed a theory of undulating evolutionary movement under capitalism. His work was further continued by his friend De Wolf.

At present, in world economic science, the name of the famous Soviet economist N.D. Kondratiev is associated with such concepts as "long waves of Kondratiev" or "big cycles of the Kondratiev conjuncture".

N.D. Kondratiev lived a short life - 46 years (of which 8 years - in prison), but his scientific legacy is remarkable for the novelty of ideas and diversity of interests. The flourishing of the active creative activity of the scientist falls on the 20s - the golden age of Soviet science and culture. Along with

teaching at the Timiryazev Agricultural Academy, where he headed the department "Teaching about agricultural markets", Kondratiev in October 1920 formed and headed the Market Institute, which soon gained recognition in the country and in the world thanks to the original research work, published in "Conjuncture Issues", "Economic Bulletin of the Market Institute" and other publications. In parallel, Kondratiev developed the problems of theory and practice of planning, forecasting and statistics. His works have been published in the USA, England, Germany.

Kondratiev in our country and abroad is best known as the author of the concept of large cycles of the conjuncture (which became known in the West as the theory of "long waves" in economic dynamics). The idea of ​​the existence of large cycles was expressed by N.D. Kondratiev in 1922 in the book "The World Economy and Its Conjuncture During and After the War". Having processed a large amount of statistical material, he presented this theory in the article "Large cycles of conjuncture" (1925) and at a discussion on this problem, which took place in February 1926 at the Institute of Economics.

Based on the processing of a large statistical material on the dynamics of about 140 years of the average level of commodity prices, interest on capital, wages, foreign trade turnover, mining and consumption of coal, production of iron and lead, N.D. Kondratiev quantitatively proved, measured in time and intensity, depicted graphically the presence of three large cycles of economic conjuncture, upward and downward waves, alternating in about half a century. In essence, he predicted not only the deepest world crisis of the late 1920s and early 1930s, but also the inevitability of a way out of it, a new upward wave.

In the early 1920s, Kondratiev launched a broad discussion on the question of long-term fluctuations under capitalism. At that time, there were still very strong hopes for a speedy revolution in the advanced capitalist countries, and therefore the question of the future of capitalism, of the possibility of its new rise, of reaching a higher stage of development, was extremely topical.

By the beginning of the 20s, world capitalism had experienced, according to Kondratiev's calculations, two and a half long waves "in accordance with Figure 1":

1789-1814

1849-1873

1896-1920

1814-1849

1873-1896

1) At the origins of the upward phase, or at its very beginning, a profound change takes place in the whole life of capitalist society. These changes are preceded by significant scientific and technical inventions and innovations. In the upward phase of the first wave, these were: the development of the textile industry and the production of iron, which changed the economic and social conditions of society. In the upward phase of the second wave: construction railways, which made it possible to develop new territories and transform agriculture. The upward stage of the third wave is caused by the widespread introduction of electricity, radio and telephone. Prospects for a new rise Kondratiev saw in the automotive industry.

2) Upward phases are richer in social upheavals (revolutions, wars) than downward ones.

3) The downward phases have a particularly depressing effect on Agriculture. Low commodity prices during a recession drive up the relative value of gold, which encourages more gold to be mined. The accumulation of gold contributes to the exit of the economy from a protracted crisis.

4) Periodic crises (7-11-year cycle) seem to be strung on the corresponding phases of a long wave and change their dynamics depending on it - during periods of a long rise, more time is spent on "prosperity", and during periods of a long recession, crisis years become more frequent.

Statistical analysis of time series, and the selection of these empirical patterns led Kondratiev to substantiate the theory of the endogenous nature of long waves (the nature of their occurrence inherent in the capitalist economy). According to this theory, none of these "empirical correctnesses" arise by chance. The change in technology is caused by the demands of production, the creation of such conditions under which the application of inventions becomes possible and necessary. Wars and revolutions are the result of the created economic, social and political situation. The need for the development of new territories and the migration of the population is also the result of such circumstances. That is, the above phenomena do not play the role of random shocks that give rise to the next cycle, but are part of the mechanism inherent in capitalism that ensures its wave-like development. Each successive phase is the result of cumulative processes accumulated during the previous phase.

Opponents of the idea of ​​long waves build their objections from the position formulated back in 1923 by L.D. Trotsky. According to this position, deviations from the secular development of capitalism are simply the evolution of a trend under the influence of purely random external processes.

The concept of Kondratiev provoked attacks both from orthodox Marxists, who foreshadowed the imminent collapse of capitalism, and from many scientists abroad, who believed that the mechanism worked out according to the recipes of J.M. Keynes state regulation economic development will make it possible to exclude long-term crisis phases from the dynamics of capitalist society. But both seemingly opposite concepts of the opponents of "long waves" were refuted by the real course of economic development, a long period of growth in the 1950s and 1960s, and the world crisis of the 1970s, which gave a powerful impetus to the study of the patterns of long-term fluctuations in the conjuncture.

N.D. Kondratiev considered the large cycles of the conjuncture not in isolation, but in the general mainstream of the polycyclic nature of the economy. He linked them with medium-term industrial cycles and with short-term fluctuations in the market. This made it possible to get rid of the impersonal, averaged approach to medium-term cycles, to show that in the upward phase of the long-term cycle, crises are less deep, and the upswings are more rapid, and in the downward phase, the trend is reversed. N.D. Kondratiev’s assumptions about the relationship between the dynamics of the cycle and the disruption and restoration of economic equilibrium over a long period of time, the resonant interaction of cycles of different durations and in different areas (in industry and in agricultural sectors) have been confirmed in practice.

N.D. Kondratiev explored the material basis of long-term economic fluctuations. He showed that for about two decades before the beginning of the upward wave of a large cycle, there is a revival in the field of technical inventions, and before the beginning and at the very beginning of the upward wave - the widespread use of these inventions associated with the reorganization of production relations, expanding the orbit of world economic relations.