According to many experts and analysts, coming year will be quite difficult and difficult for the country’s economy. That is why most of the population is concerned about the forecast for the dollar exchange rate for 2018, Kazakhstan, and, more precisely, how and how this situation will develop.

It’s worth saying right away that experts are inclined to believe that due to the situation in oil prices, the exchange rate of the national currency against the dollar will most likely be established and consolidated at around 280 to 270 tenge.

But, you must admit, the situation is quite difficult, difficult and controversial, and, therefore, it is necessary to understand it in more detail and in more detail.

Throughout the country, in the coming 2018, rather unfavorable trends should be established, which began to develop and take shape in Kazakhstan back in 2015. It was against the backdrop of those long-standing events and incidents that a vector of negative development was formed for the entire country’s economy.

Analysts' opinions.

In order to understand as accurately and in detail as possible all the features of the current situation, various opinions of experts and analysts come to the aid of the common person, each of which has its own evidence and can quite easily move from a forecast to reality. Which of the existing opinions should be noted first.

1. World currency exchange rate quotes.
2. Energy prices.
3. Economic situation in Russia.

Fourthly, Hardy. In his opinion, the tenge exchange rate indicators directly depend on the cost of oil, although not fully, but
partially. After carefully studying the situation with market development in many countries of the world, Hardy came to the conclusion that the tenge could be slightly stabilized this year, but this will be possible only if the pricing policy for energy resources is normalized. That is why, according to his forecasts, the value of the dollar this year will be 350 tenge.

Fifthly, experts from the Economic Forecasting Agency. According to the tables they compiled, the cost of the tenge at the beginning of this year will fluctuate between 500 and 560 tenge per dollar.

Despite the not very rosy forecasts and prospects, residents of Kazakhstan still hope that in the coming 2018 the economy will gradually begin to improve, since all the prerequisites for this exist.

It’s probably not worth reminding readers of that ill-fated year 2014, when world economy, unable to cope with the burden of accumulated problems (a sharp decline in the cost of oil), experienced another crisis. Some countries managed to quickly cope with the difficulties that befell them and live a normal life again, while the rest are “sorting out” the problems of the announced root cause to this day. One of the countries that was not affected by economic instability in the best way was Kazakhstan. And in order to understand exactly how the situation within the mentioned state will develop in the near future, it is worth announcing the opinions of experts regarding the issue raised.

According to most analysts, the coming year will not be one of the most pleasant for economic development powers. Perhaps this is why most local residents want to know exactly how the exchange rate of the American currency should change in 2018.

It should be noted that according to preliminary forecasts, based on the ratio of the tenge to the dollar and the situation with the cost of oil, the exchange rate of the American currency will reach 270-280:1. It is clear that the current situation in the country is considered very difficult and controversial, therefore, in some aspects it is still necessary to understand it in more detail.

So, with the advent of 2018, nothing will change fundamentally in Kazakhstan (for the better), therefore the current unfavorable trends will continue their further “development”. Some of them started back in 2015. By the way, it is precisely because of such long-standing incidents that the current vector of negative development of the economic sphere of the state was formed.

Expert opinions

To understand in more detail the features of the post-crisis situation, to an ordinary person you just need to take advantage of the expert forecasts of economic analysts. Each of them has a number of its own undeniable advantages or evidence on which a particular opinion is based. Therefore, in order to see the big picture as a whole, it is worth understanding all these visions “from the outside.”

1. Saxo Bank. According to local investment expert John Hardy, almost all European countries will closely monitor the state of the oil sector in Kazakhstan throughout 2018. Is it worth reminding that for the mentioned power the mentioned sphere of activity is considered a priority? Some probably don't even know why. In fact, everything is simple: for Kazakhstan, the export of black gold is the only source of income. This means that we should talk about the prices of this “product” in the specified time period. Most likely, with the advent of next year, oil prices will reach $60 per barrel. Despite the slight increase in the cost of hydrocarbons, the country's economy will be able to feel significantly better. But there is a possibility that the situation will go in a different direction. For example, the local government will choose a course towards privatization and an attempt to attract foreign capital to its own territories.

2. Forex Club. Analyst Valery Polkhovsky is confident that the price of Kazakh oil in 2018 will not differ much from its current position - $40-50 per barrel. As a result, the pace GDP growth will consolidate at around 1%, which is also not bad (at least there is no decline). If the economy continues to fall, the value of the tenge will even decline, increasingly approaching the baseboard. Even a default is possible, the development of which may be affected by the devaluation of the local currency. Most likely, the expected inflation will set in, after which the current one will become more severe. money-credit policy. As a result, GDP will decrease by 1%, and the exchange rate will be set at 330 tenge.

3. Maxim Likhachev also decided to express his position. According to him, the current situation in the state directly depends on what happened with the Russian ruble in 2016. As a result, we can draw a completely logical conclusion: since by now the tenge has already experienced a rapid decline and is now gradually trying to gain a foothold at one stable level, then only improvements in its condition will be observed. True, you should not hope for a lightning-fast happy ending, because so far nothing like this has been observed with the Kazakh currency. By and large, in the economy of any state there are a number of factors that influence the state of the local currency. Here we are talking about energy prices, world currency exchange rates and the economic situation in the country.

4. Hardy. According to another well-known analyst, the tenge exchange rate directly depends on the oil price. Although, to be honest, this dependence is partial. After carefully studying similar situations in other markets around the world, Hardy came to the following conclusion: the tenge will indeed stabilize in 2018, but to achieve a similar goal, existing energy pricing policies will have to be normalized. That is why the cost of the American currency will reach 350 tenge.

5. Economic Forecasting Agency. Representatives of one of Russian departments We have compiled some tables showing the situation in Kazakhstan in the next 12 months. According to the information provided in them, starting from 2018, the dollar exchange rate will fluctuate at the level of 500-560 tenge. I don’t even want to think about such a future, to be honest.

Despite all the described prospects, according to the scenario of which the future may unfold, the residents of Kazakhstan do not stop believing in the best. As for the economy, the situation simply must improve, since all the necessary prerequisites for this are already visible.

The people are waiting for the fall, experts are planning a smooth decline, and the Russians are reassuring: everything will be fine! Details:

In the near future, emerging market currencies will rise relative to American dollar and the euro, says Russian analyst Oleg Bogdanov. Among these currencies he includes

• Australian dollar,
• canadian dollar,
• as well as ruble and tenge.

According to him, in 2017 there were no strong failures of these currencies, and this is a good sign.

Oleg Bogdanov

Weak economy leads to containment

Kazakh experts are less optimistic about the tenge. Economist Magbat Spanov, for example, believes that

its real exchange rate is 350-360 tenge per dollar

— The tenge will be subject to great volatility. Yes, the situation with oil prices is improving, but costs in our country are also increasing. So our economy is not directly dependent on rising oil prices now, because we have a functioning administrative system economy. And accordingly, the formation of the tenge exchange rate will occur at the expense of the will of the National Bank. On how much he can maintain the course that is on this moment formed.

Now the National Bank is making direct injections of funds to curb the exchange rate so as not to accelerate inflation in the country. And she has long gone beyond the corridor that was voiced by the chairman of the board of the National Bank, says Spanov.

Only a significant rise in oil will affect

Spanov is convinced that if the tenge had not been contained, it would have fallen long ago. And after the new year they will continue to hold the tenge.

Magbat Spanov

Economist Rustem Zhanseitov doubts Oleg Bogdanov’s forecast. According to his observations,

the tenge today is constantly under the influence external factors, which are difficult for the National Bank to cope with

“Especially now, during the period of our neighbor’s “sanctions war” with leading Western countries, we are experiencing negative indirect pressure. So geopolitics may interfere with the strengthening of the tenge. Without this influence, the situation regarding the exchange rate and economic development would be more confident, the economist believes.

Thus, in his opinion, even rising oil prices may not particularly help strengthen the tenge:

with a significant increase in oil prices, the tenge will undoubtedly strengthen, but it will not be allowed to be revalued

It’s a pity, since the population’s trust in the tenge is quite low, strengthen in short time only extraordinary measures can achieve it.

In the short term for several months, the tenge will fluctuate in the range of 310-340,

with slowly growing oil prices,” predicts Zhanseitov.

The influx of investment is a positive factor

Economist Erlan Ibrahim does not deny the short-term slight strengthening of the tenge at the beginning of 2018. But there can be no talk of stable, smooth strengthening throughout the year.

— In general, in 2018 the tenge will weaken against the dollar. In March it will certainly not be around 330 per dollar

Our economy today is in a difficult situation - this can even be understood from the situation with banks. Although, on the other hand, our president, in his recent speech, demanded that businesses and national companies return money to Kazakhstan. Such measures could be a positive impetus for the tenge. After all if these requirements are met, there will be a significant influx of currency. But in practice it may happen differently, he notes.

The ruble is more viable

For the tenge to strengthen, oil needs to rise day after day. Then this will compensate for the weak state of the economy. According to him, today

The ruble demonstrates a higher indicator of stability than the tenge. And this despite the sanctions

Erlan Ibrahim

— The reason for this is the more balanced work of the Central Bank of Russia. It seems to me that in Russia the intervention of the first person of the state is not as obvious as in our country.

U Russian bankers there is an understanding that the foreign exchange market is not a “kitchen with borscht”, where what you wanted, you did

The economy operates according to certain laws: if you change something, there will definitely be some consequences. If you look at the curve of changes in the ruble/dollar exchange rate, you can see that it is quite smooth and more dependent on oil prices. A

if you look at this curve of tenge and oil, you can see continuous “steps”

Before last course artificially retained. Then, when you can no longer hold it, another devaluation occurs. Then comes the period of formation relative to the market rate. And then the accumulated imbalance leads to another collapse,” Ibrahim shares his observations.

An unusual futures transaction was carried out on KASE: in it, the value of the tenge for March was set at 352.55 per dollar. Does this mean that in the spring the tenge exchange rate will move to 380-400?

The Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) reported that from September 18 to September 22, 2017, one transaction was concluded on the derivatives market with futures on the US dollar/tenge exchange rate with execution in March 2018. The price was set at 352.55 tenge per US dollar. The trading volume amounted to 1.8 billion tenge. Number open positions– 5,000. According to the specification of the futures on the US dollar/tenge exchange rate, the last day of trading for the specified instrument is March 14, 2018.

The market is developing

According to economist Almas Chukin, previously, futures transactions on currencies either did not exist at all or were very rare. And if such deals happen now, it will be great.

— The conclusion of this transaction only means that two market participants have agreed with each other. They want to insure themselves against risk. And when both parties agree on terms that are favorable to them, this is the normal process of a futures transaction. And they assume that the exchange rate will be around 350 tenge per dollar,” says Chukin.

Almas Chukin

As an example, the economist cites the situation with an exporter who, relatively speaking, needs to pay taxes for 2017 in March.

- For this he will need tenge. So he thinks:

• should he convert his dollars into tenge at today’s high rate and wait,
• or the course will go even further.

Another market participant needs dollars in March, but on the contrary, by this time he will have enough tenge. And he also sits and ponders at what rate he will have to buy them. Here

these two market participants decide to make a deal, choosing the optimal price for both. And a certain rate within the framework of the transaction gives them a guarantee that they will not “fly by”

- Chukin argues.

The foreign exchange market is unpredictable

Today, according to him, it is unpredictability that “stops” the market.

“Everyone is sitting and wondering what will happen.” Although futures have existed in Western markets for a long time. And people who enter into such contracts find a middle ground for themselves. In the worst case, the tenge in March next year could be either 310 or 410 per dollar,” the economist notes.

Chukin is inclined to believe that

the tenge exchange rate in 2018 will be at the level of 330-340 tenge per dollar

But only on condition that oil remains in the same positions as today.

Economist Aset Nauryzbaev characterizes a deal with futures on the US dollar exchange rate as “a conspiracy of two fortune-tellers.” And this deal cannot influence anything.

“The two parties considered that it was profitable for them to make such a deal, and that’s all.” Some will win in the end, some will lose. It's like in a casino: they put it on black and on red. But if it comes up red, this does not mean that we will have a “red” year.

The price of 352.55 tenge per dollar is just a reflection of the opinion of market participants. And it doesn't mean anything

You can think about something if it becomes a mass phenomenon, but now we don’t see it. As for this futures, no one knows what kind of agreement is inside. Personally, I highly doubt that these are market players. “We have no predictability,” the economist is convinced.

Risk mechanism

Economist Erlan Ibrahim also believes that the volume of these trades is not that large. But the pledged value of the dollar, in his opinion, was not taken out of thin air.

— Many companies have contracts and obligations in one currency or another. Respectively,

in order not to take on the risk if the currency turns out to be more expensive than stated in the contract, such futures are created

Experts, based on their calculations, try to estimate what the exchange rate will be in a certain period of time. And the buyers of these futures assume that the dollar exchange rate will rise and reach, for example, 400. Accordingly, they insure themselves against this eventuality,” says the economist.

Erlan Ibrahim has pessimistic forecasts regarding the tenge.

— Personally, I did not expect oil to cost more than 50, but now it has reached 56 dollars per barrel. On the one hand, this is a good signal for the Kazakh market. But at the same time

this has no effect on the tenge. We do not see the tenge strengthening. Although Russian ruble against the backdrop of rising oil prices, it is noticeably strengthening

Don't expect anything positive

Thus, against the backdrop of global political instability, for example, in North Korea and Syria, oil will continue to rise in price.

Erlan Ibrahim

And if this increase in price is noticeable, then the tenge exchange rate will be more stable. But if there is a temporary, random increase followed by a decrease, then this will immediately be reflected in the tenge exchange rate.

The tenge exchange rate is more susceptible to negative information from the oil market than to positive

This year, I think, the tenge will gradually fall. Apart from oil, in general economic situation in our country there are no good indicators. Observed

• significant budget deficit,
• negative trade balance,
• There are no significant projects that could give Kazakhstan an impetus for economic development.

Such moments negatively affect the exchange rate of our national currency,” concludes Ibrahim.

In the first period of 2017, the ruble strengthened its position and rose from 4.7 rubles to 5.48 rubles, each time fluctuating stock exchange some factor is involved. If you predict the appearance of such a factor, then you can predict the further behavior of the currency. Kazakhstan has an exchange rate policy that has many differences from Russian or foreign ones. The state chose to peg its tenge exclusively to American currency, and not like Russia to oil.

What affects the tenge to ruble exchange rate?

Kazakhstan does not win in this situation, all its energy resources are supplied to the country for dollars, and they are supplied to to a greater extent from the Russian Federation, which does not benefit the country. The Russian ruble is a strong currency for Kazakhstan, a change in its exchange rate leads to the fact that in the country from which goods are imported for American money, the cost of goods increases sharply.

How has the tenge exchange rate changed over the past 5 years?

As long as the tenge has existed, it, like any other currency, has changed its exchange rate several times. At the beginning of 2016, the monetary unit started at 21.38 tenge per ruble; by the end, its rate fell, but not significantly, and became equal to 19.10 tenge per ruble. If we trace the dynamics from the beginning to the end of 2016, the exchange rate fell every month, which spoke more about the instability of the economy as a whole.

If we compare the rate with 2015, it is difficult not to notice a strong jump towards the same decrease. If at the beginning of the reporting period the rate was 30.81 tenge per ruble, then at the end its figure fell to 22.4 tenge. Every month of this and other years there were jumps, either increasing or decreasing.

In 2014, the rate started at 21.17 tenge and fell until July, where it reached 19.14 tenge per ruble. But the second half of the year was marked by a sharp increase in the exchange rate, and already at the end of the year for one Russian monetary unit you could get 36.92 tenge. Small fluctuations were also observed in 2013, at the beginning of which the quotes showed 20.04 tenge, and at the end of 21.53. Throughout this year, the rate has been growing slowly but steadily.

In what corridor will the tenge exchange rate fluctuate in 2018?

Not long ago, Dosayev made an official statement, who cited as an example the already adopted budget for 2016-2018, compiled on the basis of the dollar exchange rate of 300 tenge per US unit. As for the Russian ruble, both economists and the government in the country are waiting for a level of 5 -5.5 tenge per ruble. It is not beneficial for Kazakhstan that the Russian economy grows and restores its position; as soon as the situation changes radically, the exchange rate will also increase. Russian economists confirmed this fact and pointed out that the tenge to ruble exchange rate directly depends on the level of development of the country.

Forecast of the average tenge exchange rate for 2018

The depreciation of the Kazakh currency is difficult for analysts not to notice, especially during a period of destabilization in the foreign exchange market. In the last six months alone, it fell by 1.07% and experts predict that this is far from the end. There are many alternative scenarios for how the situation with the tenge exchange rate will develop in the future.
Of course, like any other currency, the tenge is dependent on the price of black gold, but it is much weaker than that of other countries, for example, Russia. All foreign economic transactions are carried out in American currency, so it will not be possible to completely break this relationship. Analysts from large economic centers carried out painstaking work; they put forward own forecast regarding fluctuations for 2018 and confidently claim that the exchange rate will continue to fall. For one American monetary unit the exchange rate will be about 314 tenge, but the ruble will cost 5-6 tenge. The strengthening of the Russian currency is caused by its stabilization and this cannot be ignored in the last six months.

Is it worth keeping savings in tenge in 2018?

Not long ago, the director of the Treasury of Kazakhstan made a statement, pointing out the increasing dependence of the national currency on the dollar. This situation did not exist before the crisis, but today it is impossible to reverse it. Before thinking about whether to keep savings in tenge in 2018, you need to understand in more detail what exactly has Negative influence for currency. As at the beginning of 2017, at the end of the reporting annual period, the same micro and macroeconomic factors will put pressure on the tenge.

Experts assure that the situation will not change much, most likely it will just take root. It’s very bad that the market got used to a floating exchange rate; this tied the tenge more to the cost of oil, but not directly, but through the Russian national currency. The government of the country does not hide that the stabilization of the economy in Russia will destabilize the economy of Kazakhstan. Imports will begin to rise in price too much, the cost of products will increase or fall purchasing power and there will be many more consequences.

Already today, the inflation rate in Kazakhstan is 6-8%, which is not very good for the current situation and the government would like to reduce this figure. If we talk about the national currency of Kazakhstan within the framework of everything foreign exchange market, then, unlike the dollar or euro, it experiences smaller fluctuations. Analysts say that there is no reason to panic around the tenge; such behavior is not justified. Even in 2018, when some experts predict a new round of crisis. None sharp jumps will not be. The currency will remain in an acceptable range, so it is completely safe to keep your own savings in it. For the economy that can be observed today, everything that is happening is completely normal. There are also experts who believe that the impact of oil prices on the tenge exchange rate is too exaggerated and there is a reason for this simple examples. Not every time there is a jump in the price of black gold it jumps and National currency Kazakhstan.

Only the Russian ruble has the greatest influence. It is he who destabilizes the country's economy as a whole. Exporters always benefit the most when the exchange rate is low. Due to this, it is possible to significantly reduce costs, but revenue only increases.