The deflator index 2020-2021 is a special economic indicator that allows you to predict the final price for certain goods, works and services, as well as assess the real income of the population or the purchasing power of Russians. In the article, we will understand what this indicator represents, and also determine what deflator indices will operate for 2020-2021.

What kind of indicator is

In simple terms, the deflator index is a kind of economic coefficient that allows you to calculate the final cost of services, goods, products, works. For example, the deflator index for 2020 in construction, food prices, utilities and household services, the cost of medicines and essentials.

Approving the deflator index for 2020-2021, the Ministry of Economic Development determines what the price values ​​will be in the future. Such forecasts are necessary so that officials can timely adjust the socio-economic policy. In simple words, to identify a number of measures that will improve the life of the Russian people and prevent the excessive influence of negative factors (impoverishment of the population, inflation, a sharp jump in unemployment, rising prices).

For comparison, the price index and deflator index - the meanings of the terms are quite similar. Only the price index indicates what specific value the price of a specific product will take in a specific period of time. And the deflator index, in turn, determines the price values ​​for a group of goods, works or services at once.

How it works

When developing the deflator index for 2020, the Ministry of Economic Development approves the Order for several periods at once. The values ​​are used to make a forecast for the development of the country, as well as to determine measures for the social and economic support of the population.

The deflator index (calculation formula) is defined as the ratio of the nominal price index to the real one, converted into a percentage.

For example, the key macroeconomic indicator is the GDP deflator index, the formula is:

It should be borne in mind that this indicator has a significant drawback. It lowers the rate of inflation. That is why a number of representatives of ministries and departments use deflator indices for economic forecasts. As a result, the results obtained show a systematic and stable improvement in the life of the population, as well as an endless increase in the income of citizens. In reality, this does not happen, at least on the scale described.

After the deflator indexes of the Ministry of Economic Development until 2021 are approved, officials begin a comprehensive analysis and forecasting. The main goal is to develop plausible scenarios or, in a simple way, action plans that will be applied in case of favorable or negative developments.

Deflator indices for the next three years

Industry	2020	2020	2021
Industry (BCDE)
deflator	103,3	102,9	103,0
PPI	103,4	103,0	103,0
including without fuel and energy products (oil, oil products, coal, gas, energy)	104,1	104,1	103,9
Mining (Section B)
deflator	101,2	100,6	101,0
PPI	101,4	101,2	101,1
Extraction of fuel and energy minerals (05, 06+09)
deflator	100,9	100,4	100,8
PPI	101,2	101,0	100,9
Coal mining (05)
deflator	104,5	104,0	103,7
PPI	104,3	104,1	103,9
energy stone coal
PPI	104,6	104,1	104,1
Extraction of crude oil and natural gas (06+09)
deflator	100,5	100,0	100,4
PPI	100,8	100,7	100,6
Mining of metal ores and other minerals (07, 08)
deflator	104,0	102,6	102,9
PPI	103,6	103,0	103,0
Mining of metal ores (07)
deflator	104,2	102,5	102,7
producer price index	103,7	102,8	102,9
Extraction of other minerals (08)
deflator	103,2	103,3	103,3
PPI	103,1	103,2	103,2
Manufacturing industries (Section C)
deflator	103,9	103,5	103,5
PPI	103,7	103,5	103,4
Manufacture of food, beverages and tobacco products (10, 11, 12)
deflator	103,1	103,2	103,5
PPI	102,9	103,2	103,4
Manufacture of textiles, manufacture of clothing, manufacture of leather and leather goods (13, 14, 15)
deflator	104,2	103,8	103,5
PPI	104,1	103,8	103,6
Woodworking and production of products from wood and cork, except furniture, production of products from straw and materials for plaiting (16)
deflator	105,1	104,6	104,3
PPI	104,6	104,4	104,3
Manufacture of paper and paper products (17)
deflator	105,2	104,7	104,4
PPI	104,7	104,5	104,3
Manufacture of petroleum products (19.2)
deflator	101,3	100,1	100,6
PPI	100,9	99,8	100,3
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, manufacture of medicines and materials used for medical purposes, manufacture of rubber and plastic products (20, 21, 22)
deflator	105,2	104,9	104,7
PPI	104,8	104,7	104,5
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products (23)
deflator	103,9	103,7	103,6
PPI	103,9	103,8	103,7
Manufacture of ferrous metals (24.1, 24.2, 24.3, 24.5)
deflator	104,2	104,7	103,7
PPI	103,8	104,4	103,1
Production of basic precious metals and other non-ferrous metals, production of nuclear fuel (24.4)
deflator	106,0	104,5	104,1
PPI	105,6	104,3	103,7
Manufacture of finished metal products, except for machinery and equipment (25)
deflator	104,5	104,5	104,2
PPI	104,3	104,3	104,1
Engineering products (26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 33)
deflator	105,5	105,3	105,4
PPI	105,3	105,1	105,1
Other
deflator	102,8	102,9	103,2
Provision of electricity, gas and steam; air conditioning (35)
deflator	105,0	104,2	104,0
producer price index (PPI)	105,0	104,2	104,0
Water supply; wastewater disposal, waste collection and disposal, pollution control activities (Section E)
deflator	104,0	104,0	104,0
PPI	104,0	104,0	104,0
Agriculture
deflator	103,5	103,1	103,3
Producer price indices
crop production
deflator	103,7	102,9	102,9
animal husbandry
deflator	103,4	103,5	103,7
index of sales prices of products by agricultural producers	103,5	103,8	103,9
Transport, incl. pipeline
deflator	104,3	104,2	104,1
PPI	104,4	104,3	104,3
PPI with the exception of pipeline. transport	103,6	103,7	103,6
Investments in fixed assets (capital investments)
deflator	105,0	104,4	104,2
price indices
Construction
deflator	105,0	104,8	104,5
PPI	104,7	104,6	104,5
Consumer market
retail turnover, deflator	104,2	103,5	104,0
CPI for goods	104,0	103,3	103,9
paid services to the population, deflator	104,8	104,2	104,3
CPI for services	104,9	104,3	104,4

Development scenarios

Currently, the Ministry of Economic Development is developing three types of scenarios for the Russian economy:

1. The base plan, which implies that the indicators of the main factors of the Russian economy will remain at the base or current level. That is, there will be no change.
2. The conservative scenario provides for a significant deterioration in socio-economic indicators. The plan takes into account not only internal but also external factors.
3. The target plan, under which the optimal development of events for the Russian economy is expected as domestic market, as well as on the outside. For example, the lifting of sanctions, the reduction of fiscal duties and encumbrances, the rise in prices for raw materials, and so on.

Not only indicators of internal development (GDP, tax system, minimum wage, price indicators, the size of the consumer basket). But also external factors. Currently, special attention is paid to the sanctions that were applied by the US and EU countries.

Base Scenario

This forecast plan provides for the following values:

1. Demand for energy carriers will increase. Prices for petroleum products will remain at the current level. Such values ​​will be achieved by complying with the agreement on the reduction of oil production. Although some pressure from the US will still remain due to the increase in shale oil production.
2. Maintaining global economic growth at 2.8%. It is expected that the countries with the most developed economies will slow down the pace of development. The Chinese economy will slow down the pace of development due to the increase in the debt burden and trade duties. Developing countries will not be able to improve performance due to lower commodity prices.
3. The export of Russian oil products will increase. The reason will be the best price offers Russian market compared to competing states.
4. Growth in the level of investment will be ensured by the implementation of the norms federal program to support small and medium businesses (benefits for small businesses, tax holidays).
5. The development of the import substitution sector will expand industrial areas, increase the number of jobs, and increase labor productivity.

The result of the development of the economy under this scenario will be a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.7%, as well as an increase in the real level of income of the population to 1.5%. That will positively affect the increase in demand, as well as the growth of consumer lending.

Target development plan

The deflator index for 2020 for estimates with positive development provides for the same indicators as the base plan. However, officials provided for additional (exceptional) factors:

1. Demographic indicators according to Rosstat. A significant increase in the population is planned, which will be due not only to an increase in the birth rate, but also to migration growth.
2. The growth in the production of petroleum products will increase the growth in the flow of investments, both domestic and external (foreign) capital. Growth will be ensured by the commissioning of new wells and the improvement of production technologies.
3. strengthened Russian ruble in relation to foreign exchange rates. Namely, in relation to the US dollar and the euro.
4. Growth dynamics of domestic gross product will reach an indicator of at least 3.1% per year.

It should be noted that the main lever for achieving indicators of positive development of the economy is the strengthening of positions in the commodity market, namely through the sale of oil products and gas.

conservative plan

The forecast deflator indices of the Ministry of Economic Development until 2020 imply that numerous negative factors will affect the Russian economy. The main unfavorable criteria include:

1. Tightening of the monetary economy of other states.
2. "Hard landing" of the Chinese economy.
3. A sharp decline in oil prices (below $35 per barrel).
4. Weakening of the ruble against the US dollar.
5. Decrease in GDP growth rates to 0.8%.
6. Inflation will reach 4.3% or more.

Officials pay special attention to this development plan, since the impact of the global crisis cannot be ignored.

Forecast indicators for 2020

Planned deflator indices of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2020, taking into account recent changes, were finally adjusted at the last moment. The main changing factors were: an increase in the retirement age, an increase in VAT, a tax maneuver in the oil industry, and an increase in excise taxes on fuel.

Taking into account these innovations in the tax and social policy, the Ministry of Economic Development announces the following indicators:

• consumer goods - 104.4;
• goods of the industrial sector - 104.1;
• wholesale gas prices - 103.8;
• coal cost coefficient - 103.9;
• expected cost of fuel oil - 102.1;
• forecast prices for electricity (retail) - 109.1;
• public Utilities(water supply and supply of thermal energy) - 105.1;
• deflator index for 2020 of the Ministry of Economic Development (construction) - 105.0;
• planned prices for Russian Railways cargo transportation - 105.2.

Expected indicators for the baseline scenario in the table:

Ask questions, and we will supplement the article with answers and explanations!

Every day, many processes take place in the economy that affect the level of prices and the well-being of the population. One of the most significant economic phenomena can be considered the level of inflation.

So, inflation in Russia in recent years is the topic of this publication.

What is inflation?

Inflation - economic phenomenon, at which the level rises consumer prices over a long period of time. If it increases, then over time it may turn out that the same amount of money can buy much less goods compared to the previous period. I.e, purchasing power decreases and money depreciates.

Inflation is divided into three types:

• moderate or creeping (up to 10% per year),
• galloping (10-50%),
• hyperinflation (from 50%).

Moderate is an adequate phenomenon and is considered a sign of the normal functioning of the economy. Namely:

• commodity production,
• additional issue of banknotes,
• export-import relations.

Today, inflation in Russia after four months was 1.2%.

If there is an indicator above 10% in the country, unfavorable processes occur in the economy, which entail an increase in prices and a decrease in consumer ability.

At the rate of inflation negative impact provided by the following factors:

1. Reducing the cost of national monetary unit to world currencies - the euro and the dollar.
2. An increase in the price of imported goods. It occurs due to an increase in the cost of raw materials and components, which leads to an automatic increase in prices.
3. Additional emission of money, which is carried out in order to balance the money supply in circulation or for lending to state enterprises.
4. Government budget deficit - expenditures exceed revenues.
5. Decreased export of goods. This could be observed after the application of Western sanctions, which limited the Russian Federation in the markets for commercial products.

Often wage increases social benefits entails a rapid increase in market prices and utility tariffs. However, this indicator is controversial and it cannot be unambiguously attributed to influencing factors. Salaries and pensions should be indexed annually. So the state makes a small allowance, taking into account last year's price index.

Inflation rate in Russia in 2018

The annual rate is derived by summing the monthly inflation indices. After four months, according to Rosstat, the inflation index in Russia in 2018 amounted to:

• January - 0.31,
• February - 0.21,
• March - 0.29,
• April - 0.38.

Consider the reasons that influenced the price index of each month.

• In January 2018, the price index stopped at 0.31. Most experts believe that the January figure was greatly influenced by the increase in prices for transport and housing and communal services, which are usually indexed in January and July (every six months).
• The February price index fell to 0.21. It corresponds to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development. In February, there was an increase in prices for seasonal goods (on average by 0.4%), the level of prices for housing and communal services increased by 0.1%. There was no increase in gasoline prices, which served as a deterrent to a significant increase in this indicator.
• In March, the growth of the index accelerated somewhat. There is an increase in the price of food products by 0.5%. There is a significant increase in prices for fruits and vegetables: on average, vegetables have risen in price by 15%, fruits by 5%. Prices for housing and communal services continued the trend of last month - 0.1%. Gasoline and other fuels remained unchanged. Also in March, there was a jump in the exchange rate of foreign currencies against the ruble, which contributed to the March inflation index.
• The first half of April led to an increase in food prices by about 0.5%. And in the second half, their growth slowed down and amounted to 0.1% (seasonal goods began to become cheaper). At the same time, in April there was an increase in gasoline prices by 0.4-0.5%. And the adopted US sanctions had a negative impact on the ruble, which fluctuated between 62-65 rubles / dollar and 77-80 rubles / euro. The combination of rising prices and negative economic events accelerated the rise in inflation, as a result of which the April price index reached 0.38 (the highest value on a monthly basis).

Given these figures, financial analysts are planning annual inflation at 3.5-4%.

Forecast for 2019

Not even half of 2018 has yet passed, but financial analysts and economists are already building inflation forecasts for next year. So, according to their calculations, the average inflation rate will be slightly more than 4%.

The head of the Central Bank, E. Nabiullina, considers an acceptable level of inflation in the region of 4%. She bases her forecasts on the stabilization of the level of food prices, which was achieved through investment in the agricultural sector.

In general, the forecast of the Central Bank for 2019 is quite optimistic. The opinion of experts from the Analytical Credit Rating Agency is not so positive: the inflation rate will exceed 4% in 2019. The forecast takes into account possible force majeure in the economy, which may cause an increase in prices and tariffs; the impact of economic sanctions on foreign trade, the exchange rate against the value of the ruble. Representatives of the agency give an inflation forecast of 4.4%.

Another important opinion is the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development. Thanks to monthly financial analytics, the study of prices in the domestic and foreign markets, the specialists managed to predict a completely optimistic model for 2019. According to their data, oil quotes are growing, and the pledged cost of $44/barrel is already irrelevant, because the average price is $50-60 per unit of volume! If we calculate and recalculate the target figure ($44), inflation will be no more than 2-3% in 2019, and next year's budget will become in surplus (revenues will exceed expenses).

Time will tell which forecast turned out to be the most accurate.

Official Rosstat data in the table

The monthly dynamics of inflation in Russia since 1991 is shown in the table. So, according to the table, you can understand which years were crisis in the country's economy.

[ Temporarily determined indicators long-term forecast socio-economic development of the Russian Federation until 2030]

[ Temporarily defined indicators of the long-term forecast of socio-economic development Russian Federation until 2030,

on price indices and deflator indices for predicting prices for military products]

To whom: Military Industrial Commission under the Government of the Russian Federation

Federal executive authorities (according to the list)

State Atomic Energy Corporation Rosatom

In accordance with the order of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia dated April 16, 2008 No. 104 “On approval of the procedure for applying price indices and deflator indices by types economic activity when predicting prices for military products supplied under the state defense order ”(as amended by the order of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia dated July 26, 2010 No. 333, hereinafter referred to as the Procedure) The Ministry of Economic Development of Russia sends a table of producer price indices, deflator indices by types of economic activity and other indicators of growth rates for the next 2012 and the planned period of 2013 and 2014.

Also, temporarily determined indicators of the forecast of price indices and inflation for the period 2015-2030 are sent for use in the work. In the absence of the required indicator in the list for the purpose of applying clauses 3, 5 and 6 of the Procedure, it is recommended to use the following indicator values: for the period up to 2020 inclusive - 103.5, from 2021 - 102.5.

Appendices: 1. Table of indices for the next year 2012 and the planned period of 2013 and 2014: in 1 copy.

2. Temporarily determined indicators for the forecast of price indices and inflation until 2030: in 1 copy.

Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation
e-Smeta.ru - Estimate portal, inflation CMR indices, construction, budgeting, estimate

Source: www.e-smeta.ru

Letter of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation of November 25, 2016 No. 36144-AB / D03i “On the use of indicators for the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the purpose of pricing products supplied under the state defense order”

The Ministry of Economic Development of Russia is updating the indicators of the forecast for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2017 and for the planned period of 2018 and 2019 (hereinafter referred to as the Forecast), approved at a meeting of the Government of the Russian Federation on October 13, 2016 (minutes No. 33, part I) and posted on the official website of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia in the information and telecommunications network "Internet", used for the purpose of pricing products supplied under the state defense order (hereinafter referred to as the GOZ).

The use of these Forecast indicators should be carried out in accordance with the Order of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia dated April 29, 2015 No. 37 “On approval of the procedure for applying price indices and deflator indices by type of economic activity when forecasting prices for products supplied under the state defense order” (hereinafter - Order No. 37).

Forecast indicators used for the purpose of pricing products supplied by the State Defense Order are contained in the following tables as part of the Forecast (attached):

- inflation (consumer price index - CPI) - in the table "Forecast of inflation indicators and the price system until 2019";

– producer price indices and deflator indices – in the table “Forecast of deflator indices and producer price indices by types of economic activity until 2019 (for the full range of enterprises), in % y/y”;

is the index of change in real wages- in the table "Main indicators of the forecast of socio-economic development until 2019";

- indices of price changes (tariffs) for products (services) of companies in the infrastructure sector - in the table "Change in prices (tariffs) for products (services) of companies in the infrastructure sector until 2019 (in %, on average per year to the previous year)".

In order to apply the index of change in the nominal exchange rate of the ruble per one US dollar*, we report the values ​​for 2017-2019. (basic version):

Letter of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation dated November 25, 2016
Letter of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation of November 25, 2016 No. 36144-AB / D03i “On the use of indicators for the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the purposes of pricing

Source: www.garant.ru

Calculation of the coefficient to the Collection of prices ONST

Calculation of the coefficient to the Collection of prices (ONZT-96) for 2018

European part of the Russian Federation

Western and Eastern Siberia

regions of the Far East

regions of the Far North

Order of Roszemkadastr dated 10.01.2003 No. NK / 25

(this order was changed from 11/18/2015 N 854)

Until 2007, the deflator coefficients were multiplied, and in 2008 and further, subsequent coefficients are multiplied by the coefficient of 2007 (letters of the Ministry of Finance of November 27, 2009 N 03-11-11 / 216 and further of February 11, 2011 N 03-11 -09/6).

Unfortunately, we are forced to state that inflation was and is, but there is no regulatory document that would set the inflation coefficient to ONZT-96 for 2016 and 2017.

About the initial data, the cost of the service and contact details - see

Program "Estimate Geo+Cadastre"

When calculating estimates for cadastral and land management works using the program "Estimate Geo + Cadastre" (delivered to all regions of the Russian Federation), multiplying coefficients are used to the prices of the "Collection of prices and socially necessary labor costs (ONZT) for the manufacture of design and survey products for land management, land cadastre and land monitoring", introduced by Roskomzem from January 1, 1996 and deflator coefficients, which are approved by orders of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia. For the calculation of the coefficient to the ONST Price Collection, see further at the end of this page.

tel.: 8-906-500-80-61 or 8-483-230-71-20

Roszemkadastr 2003

Letter from Roszemkadastr dated 10.01.2003 NK 25 Territorial authorities Roszemkadastra

(ONZT) for the production of design and survey products for land management, land cadastre and land monitoring "(M., Roskomzem, 1996)"

First Deputy Head N.V. Komov

Deflator coefficient in estimates

In 2004, the coefficient was applied - the deflator established by the order of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation:

On the establishment of the coefficient - deflator

To calculate the index to the Collection of prices for land management and cadastral works, the following regulatory documents are used:

Collection of prices of Roskomzem 1996 (Order 70 of December 28, 1995), newsletter No. 1 of 1997, appendices 1, 2 .; order of Roszemkadastr dated 10.01.03 No. NK / 25. Order of the Ministry of Economic Development dated 11.11.03 No. 337, dated 09.11.04 N 298, dated 03.11.05 N 284, dated November 3, 2006 N 359 , dated November 19, 2007 N 401, dated November 12, 2008 N 392, dated November 13, 2009 N 465, dated October 27, 2010 N 519, dated November 1, 2011 N 612, dated October 31, 2012 No. 707, November 7, 2013 N 652, October 29, 2014 N 685, October 20, 2015 N 772, November 3, 2016 No. 698, October 30, 2017 N 579.

Indices of change in estimated cost geodetic works- look

Coefficients to prices for cadastral work
Coefficients for prices for cadastral works

Source: kladik.3dn.ru

Deflator index for 2017-2019 Ministry of Economic Development

The Ministry of Economic Development is counting on a further slowdown in inflation, which is reflected in the forecast of deflator indices for 2017-2019. Recovery economic growth and stabilization of the domestic currency will ensure a moderate increase in prices, which is in line with the goals of the Central Bank. Experts note the vulnerability of the Russian economy to new external challenges.

The deflator index goes down: forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2017-2019

The Russian economy has overcome the negative consequences of the crisis, which is reflected in price stabilization. After rising to 13%, inflation slowed down to 4%, which is in line with the target level of the Central Bank. In the future, the authorities expect to consolidate price growth at this level, which will become the basis of macroeconomic stability.

The slowdown in inflation is due to the influence of several factors. The recovery in the growth of oil prices led to a significant strengthening of the domestic currency. As a result, there was a decrease in the prices of imported goods. In addition, the Russian economy is recovering positive growth rates.

The decrease in inflation rates is reflected in deflators, the level of which is determined by representatives of the Ministry of Economic Development. These coefficients are reflected in the comparison of prices in different periods, which makes it possible to predict further rates of economic development. In addition, deflators are used to index certain tariffs, social payments, etc.

Unlike the consumer price index, deflators use the full range of existing goods and services. Another difference from the CPI is that this indicator reflects an underestimated inflation rate.

The forecast values ​​of deflator indices for 2017-2019 are based on scenarios for the development of the Russian economy developed by experts from the Ministry of Economic Development.

Economic recovery continues

The domestic economy will maintain positive growth rates in the medium term, the Ministry of Economic Development is confident. Despite the continued sanctions regime and a period of low energy prices, GDP growth will reach 2-3%. Wherein world economy will increase by 3.6%.

The dynamics of the oil market will remain a key factor for the Russian economy. MED's forecast assumes average cost barrel at $40. If oil prices exceed given level, the government will be able to restore the reserves of the Reserve Fund, which have been significantly reduced during the crisis.

For sustainable growth of the domestic economy, it is necessary to stimulate the development of non-commodity exports, representatives of the Ministry of Economic Development emphasize. In this case, dependence on fluctuations in energy prices, which is the cause of cyclical crises, will be reduced.

Improving macroeconomic dynamics will lead to an increase in investment and a recovery in the growth of real incomes of the population. In addition, the authorities do not predict a significant weakening of the domestic currency.

Under such conditions, price growth will slow down to 3.8-4%, officials emphasize. This dynamics is reflected in the deflator forecasts for the next year.

Forecasts for 2018: officials vs. experts

Taking into account the dynamics of the development of the economic situation, representatives of the Ministry of Economic Development prepared forecasts of the main price coefficients for 2018:

• CPI index - 104.3;
• industrial goods price index - 103.8.

The Central Bank also expects to keep inflation within 4%. Inflation slowdown will allow the regulator to continue reducing key rate, which will ensure the reduction in the cost of credit resources. As a result, the economy will receive an additional impetus for development.

Experts are not sure about price stability in the short term, which is due to the influence of several factors. Before the elections, the authorities will increase federal budget spending, directing funds to increase social benefits. Excess ruble liquidity will lead to accelerated inflation.

In addition, the stability of the Russian currency in the coming years remains in question. The ruble remains dependent on oil market trends, which creates threats to stability foreign exchange market. Experts also note a significant outflow of capital, which is reflected in the dynamics of currency quotes. Speculators react to the growth of geopolitical risks and the reduction of the Central Bank rate by reducing investments in Russian assets.

The collapse in oil prices will provoke a new stage of the crisis for the Russian economy. Unlike in 2014, the government does not have significant financial reserves to help stabilize the situation. At the same time, the domestic budget will lose significant revenues, which will lead to an increase in the deficit. Under such conditions, the Russian currency will devalue, which will lead to a corresponding increase in prices.

The resumption of economic growth allows experts from the Ministry of Economic Development to lower their forecasts for deflator indices for the coming years. Inflation in 2018-2019 will decrease to 4%, which corresponds to the forecast level of the Central Bank.

A slowdown in price growth will lead to an increase in real incomes of the population. Also, the Central Bank will be able to reduce the key rate, which will lead to a decrease in the cost of borrowed resources.

The decline in inflation could be in jeopardy if the fall in oil prices resumes. In addition, next year the government will increase budget spending, which will affect the price dynamics.

Deflator index for 2017-2019 Ministry of Economic Development
You can get acquainted with the deflator index for the period from 2017 to 2019 from the Ministry of Economic Development by reading our article.

The price index and deflator index are special economic indicators, which allow you to predict what the real cost of work, goods or services will be in the future.

What is an index deflator

The level of prices for food and essential goods is of interest to almost all residents of Russia. What will be the price tags in stores in the new year - everyone asks this question: from young to old. In order to have at least some idea of ​​the cost of goods, works, services, officials use a special calculation coefficient.

The deflator index is the basis for determining the dynamics of price indicators in the future. That is, by applying the approved deflator index for 2020-2021 (Ministry of Economic Development) to the current price, it is easy to calculate the cost of a particular product category or product in the planning period.

Why is this needed? The calculated indicator is used not only for price forecasting. Also, the deflator index helps to assess the real level of income of the population. That is, to determine how many products, goods, services a citizen with a certain income level can purchase.

By analyzing the level of prices and the solvency of the population, officials determine the direction of social policy. This is necessary to support socially unprotected categories of citizens. In other words, officials determine a set of measures aimed at financial support for poor Russians who are below the poverty line.

Despite the importance of the calculated coefficients, their use has a significant drawback. When calculating future prices, the inflation rate is significantly underestimated. And this negatively affects the determination of the real level of income of the population of the country.

Applications

Next, officials determine what prices will be in future periods. Having received cost positions, the level of incomes of the population is estimated. Moreover, the analysis is carried out for each category of citizens separately. Calculations are made taking into account the needs of the adult working population, underage Russians and, of course, pensioners.

These indicators make it possible to obtain a forecast of the need for indexation of benefits, pension payments and other social supplements. All operations are carried out taking into account the deflator index - annual indexation of benefits at the expense of the Fund social insurance(usually held in January-February), indexation of pensions, increase in the cost of pension points, increase in social compensations, additional payments and allowances.

Note that social policy is not the only area of ​​application of the coefficients. For example, the deflator index for 2020 in construction allows you to determine price indicators for Construction Materials, services and works. But this is just the tip of the iceberg. Prices, for example, for finished housing, ultimately depend on these calculations.

The deflator index for 2020 for estimates has a similar meaning. This coefficient allows you to predict the level of public procurement, determine the need and solvency Russian organizations in the planned period. For example, when planning the purchase of goods, works, services, a company is obliged to take into account not only the increased volume of financing and its needs, but also the price dynamics for the necessary goods, works, services.

Note that none of the spheres of state activity can do without the use of deflator indices. Even the tax system contains calculations based on the application of these coefficients.

Scenarios and calculations

The Ministry of Economic Development is obliged to calculate and approve deflator indices until 2021. Moreover, the values ​​are determined for each reporting period separately, and the forecasting of the coefficients is carried out by officials, taking into account external and internal factors. Depending on how each of the factors affects general state economy, several development options are determined.

In simple words, the forecast deflator indices of the Ministry of Economic Development until 2021 are approved according to scenarios. What is it for? Let's show an example.

It is no secret that a number of countries have imposed restrictive sanctions against the Russian Federation. The level of prices for raw materials (especially oil products) has a negative trend. The level of customs duties and fees is growing. And officials, when determining deflator indices for 2020-2021, take these factors into account. They develop three scenarios at once:

1. Basic, in which all external and internal factors will retain their current values. In simple words, the sanctions will continue, oil prices will fluctuate around $40-50 per barrel, and customs duties will be frozen at the level of 2018-2020.
2. Favorable forecast, in which a positive development trend is expected. For example, sanctions will be eased or completely lifted. Prices for oil products will rise, and customs duties on Russian goods will be reduced.
3. target scenario. This type of prognosis is the most unfavorable. Provides for the most negative impact of external and internal factors on the Russian economy. For example, sanctions will be tightened, the cost of oil will fall to critical positions, customs duties will increase significantly, inflation and unemployment within the country will rise.

Consequently, the deflator indices of the Ministry of Economic Development are not only a coefficient for calculating price dynamics in the future, but also an important indicator of the development of the Russian economy as a whole, taking into account the influence of external and internal factors.

How to count

The calculation of the indicator is the ratio of the nominal values ​​to the current ones. Moreover, the resulting figure is recalculated as a percentage. Let's see how the deflator index for 2020 is used (the order of the Ministry of Economic Development determines the formula):

ID = nominal values ​​/ current (real) values ​​× 100%.

For example, how the GDP deflator index is calculated:

GDP ID = nominal GDP / real GDP × 100%.

This indicator is generalized. It characterizes the dynamics of prices for all goods, works, services for both consumer and industrial purposes. Since GDP is the estimated value of everything produced in billing period. But the index-deflator of GDP speaks about the dynamics of prices in the Russian economy as a whole.

Forecast values

In order to apply taxation standards, the deflator indices of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2020 were approved in Order No. 684 dated October 21, 2019, and limits on insurance premiums are indexed annually. Similarly, the limit for switching to the simplified tax system should be indexed, but officials froze it in order to support business.

For 2020, officials have already fixed the indicators in the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024. Using the clarifications from the letter of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia dated October 3, 2018 No. 28438-AT / D03i, we obtain the following deflator index for 2020 (Ministry of Economic Development):

• construction - 105.1;
• oil - 103.6;
• water supply and sanitation - 104.0;
• gas supply, electricity supply - 104.2;
• consumer price index - 103.8;
• agriculture - 103.3.

Note that these indicators are given for the base scenario of economic development and are relevant while maintaining the current values ​​of internal and external factors.

Every year in Russia, as in other countries, there is an increase in prices. Products, housing and communal tariffs, services, education in a word are becoming more expensive. At the same time, the level of wages remains unchanged or changes so insignificantly that it becomes incomparable with the rise in prices. What future inflation forecast for 2019 does the government promise?

Definition of inflation

First, we need to define what inflation is. This is the depreciation (devaluation) of public money circulating within the country due to their excessive amount. That is, there is an increase in prices for all types of goods and services. And this means that for the same amount of money you buy less goods than before. Money depreciates and the purchasing power of citizens decreases.

There are special indicators by which inflation is calculated. One of them is the inflation index, which is also called the consumer price index (CPI). It shows the change in the price level for the most common goods among the population, i.e. consumer basket. CPI is calculated by experts from the Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank ( central bank Russia).

What will affect the growth of inflation next year:

• Increase in VAT (Value Added Tax) from January 1, 2019.
• The likelihood of a sales tax (in addition to VAT).
• Rising prices for fuel and energy.
• Emission (printing additional money supply).
• outflow Money from the country.
• Sanctions.

The main risk remains the dependence of oil prices on world market prices, which are highly unstable and subject to sharp fluctuations. The fall in world oil prices will lead to the devaluation of the ruble against other world currencies. This means that it will lead to an increase in prices for imported goods, an increase in tariffs and taxes, and emissions.

What are index deflators?

The deflator is a coefficient that shows the change in the cost of goods, both for national and industrial purposes. Simply put, it shows the ratio of the former price to the current one. For conversion, two indicators are used:

• GDDP (Gross Domestic Product Deflator).
• GNP (Gross Domestic Product Deflator).

The indicators obtained using these indices show changes in the volume of production of goods and services in the country. By studying these changes, it is possible to predict and plan the development of the economy. These calculations are handled by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development and published on its website.

Forecast of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia

Each of us wondered what awaits Russia in the coming year. In what direction will the country's economy change, and how will the well-being of the population change? The Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank, as well as other departments and structures involved in calculations and forecasts of the level of the state of the economy, can answer these questions.

The Central Bank of Russia is taking measures aimed at stabilizing and containing prices, one of which is to increase the key rate. But despite this, the forecasts for the next year for the Central Bank are disappointing and inflation will be up to 5.5%.

According to official data from the Ministry of Economic Development, the projected inflation for 2019 will be 4.3%. Based on this indicator, the government formed the country's budget for the next year. It should be noted that this figure is slightly different from the government's target of 4%.

federal Service state statistics(Rosstat) generates statistical information about changes related to the economy. The inflation forecast from Rosstat in 2019 will be:

Year	Min.	Base	Max.
2019	2.1%	3.5%	4.1%

Inflation will remain in the range of 4-4.5%, the Ministry of Finance predicts. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation believes that the Central Bank’s forecasts for 2019 of 5.5% are overstated and pessimistic. The discrepancy in figures suggests that the Central Bank made forecasts based on assumptions of lower oil prices and other indicators.

It is not clear who to believe, because the expected inflation rate for the next 2019 is very different in different departments. Discrepancies are associated with difficulties, and sometimes impossibility, to predict certain events.

Independent experts' forecasts for 2019

If state institutions and the government assume the level of inflation next year within the acceptable range of 3.5-4.5%, then the opinions of independent experts are not so optimistic.

Analysts from FxPro see the problem in the implementation of government measures that will reduce economic growth and increase inflationary phenomena:

• Increasing VAT.
• Raising the retirement age (this bill is being actively considered).
• Budget spending on various mega-buildings.
• Unwillingness to rebuild the economy (its dependence on oil prices).

Analysts from the Institute. Gaidar adds to this list sanctions, low prices for oil products, dollar instability and difficulties in the country's agricultural complex caused by bad weather. All these processes will lead to the fact that inflation will be 5%, and possibly even higher.

How will it affect economic situation in the country on ordinary citizens? To stabilize the economy, the government can use the following options:

• Emission (printing new money).
• Increasing taxes.
• Reducing social benefits in various areas.
• Resumption of privatization measures.

It is clear that such measures will be applied if the state fails to adapt the economy to future risks and find a way out of the situation.

There are other forecasts, more rosy. With a consistently high oil price, the inflation rate will gradually decrease and the purchasing power of the population will begin to grow again, the well-being of citizens will improve.

In any case, the government is trying to smooth out the negative processes and make life easier for ordinary citizens. Thus, at the suggestion of the president, changes were made to the pension legislation of the Russian Federation. They will allow the government to carry out measures to index (increase) social benefits by 7% and prevent inflation of pensions in the coming 2019. Even despite the jump in prices, which experts suggest at the beginning of next year, future payments will allow pensioners to feel secure. Money to increase pensions, incorporated in the Federal state. a budget whose income exceeds its expenditures.

The forecast of something always has refinements and is not a constant value. Now there has been a positive trend in the future development of the country's economy, if the price of oil does not change and new sanctions are not introduced. Any of these changes will immediately affect the inflationary process. The size of the projected inflation in Russia for 2019 is a hot debate and disagreement among experts. Which of them was closer to reality, we will know very soon.