Dollar exchange rate forecast for October November. Dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate. Dollar forecast for November from the Ministry of Economic Development

06.09.2023

What will happen to the ruble/dollar exchange rate in Russia in November 2017? According to the Ministry of Economic Development, the depreciation of the ruble will begin in October, and by the end of December the average dollar exchange rate in Russia will be 63 rubles. Analysts agree that the dollar will gradually rise in price, but the range of their estimates is high - from a moderate 60 rubles to a collapse to 70 rubles per dollar.

Dollar forecast for November from the Ministry of Economic Development

Forecasters from the Ministry economic development It is believed that in the fourth quarter of 2017, oil prices and the ruble exchange rate will fall. The corresponding estimates are contained in the materials to the amendments to federal budget for the current year.

The cost of a barrel of Russian Urals mixture in October will be $51 per barrel, in November - $49, in December - $47. On average for the fourth quarter - $49, for the year - $49.9.

Meanwhile, according to the Ministry of Finance, the average price of Urals oil in January-September 2017 was $50.55 per barrel. average price in September 2017 it was $54.24 per barrel.

The quotes failed to stay near the level of $58-59 per barrel of Brent, which was observed at the end of September, and now the next level that speculators have to overcome is $55. However, there is a possibility that prices will bounce off current values and turn upward.

Along with the oil decline, the Ministry of Economic Development expects the ruble to weaken. The forecast is as follows: 60.8 rubles per dollar in October, 62.1 rubles in November and 63 rubles in December. The average rate for the fourth quarter is 62 rubles, for the year - 59.4 rubles per dollar.

For comparison: the average rate in the third quarter was 59.7 rubles, and the value of the American currency at 20:00 Moscow time on October 6 was 58.2 rubles.

Analysts: what will happen to the ruble in November

Analysts, as well as the Ministry of Economic Development, expect the ruble to weaken. But their range of estimates is very high: from moderate to expectations of a collapse of the Russian currency.

The estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development fully meet our expectations, says Evgeny Volkov, head of the brokerage operations department of RosEvroBank. Many factors will put pressure on the ruble exchange rate in the fourth quarter: actions of the Fed, liquidity shortage in the market, payments Russian companies on external debt.

“Moreover, oil prices have not been able to gain a foothold above $58 per barrel, which will also contribute to further weakening of the ruble. The situation will be significantly changed by the next round of discussions in the US Congress on tightening sanctions against Russia, which could force large investors to abandon plans to purchase Russian government debt,” he believes.

Senior analyst at Freedom Finance Investment Company Bogdan Zvarich calls this forecast quite conservative. Most likely, the ruble will be higher in November and December, he believes. The analyst notes that he expects Brent oil to remain in the range of $55-60 per barrel until the end of the year.

“In such a situation, the average dollar exchange rate recent months will remain around 60 rubles, which is lower than the forecast presented,” says Zvarich

The same opinion is shared by Yuri Kravchenko, head of the bank analysis department and money market IC "Veles Capital". He notes that by the end of autumn we can indeed expect a weakening of the ruble’s position from current levels, and by the end of the year the correction may intensify following a rise in rates on foreign markets, a reduction in the attractiveness of ruble yields and an increase in liquidity surplus in banking system RF. “However, we do not expect the dollar to strengthen above 62 rubles, and the average value towards the end of the year will most likely be close to 60 rubles,” he sums up.

At the same time, Alor Broker analyst Kirill Yakovenko believes that the ministry’s estimates are too cautious. In his opinion, by the end of the year the number of factors that could not even reduce, but collapse the ruble exchange rate, will grow.

Firstly, in the fourth quarter many Russian corporations to be paid external debt, denominated in foreign currency, and before that you will have to purchase this currency. When they enter the foreign exchange market with large volumes, they always move the rate, this was the case, for example, in 2014. It is also likely that the ministry’s assessment includes a decline in oil prices, which should occur due to the fact that market participants realize that the OPEC agreement to reduce production is in fact far from being fully observed.

“According to my estimates, even our country, before the start of the agreement, hastily increased production in order to reduce it later,” says the analyst. Market participants must sooner or later realize that all sides of the oil market acted in a similar way.

The next factor in the weakening of the ruble is the reduction in the spread between the key rate in the Russian Federation and rates developed countries, in particular the USA. The Central Bank is consistently reducing the rate, trying not to squeeze the money supply, which is already declining due to license revocations, and the US Federal Reserve, on the contrary, has announced a course for a strong dollar and will raise its rate.

Thus, the space for making money on carry trade operations is shrinking, and soon carry traders may begin to withdraw funds from Russian assets and convert them into foreign currency, which can lead to an increase in the dollar exchange rate

The analyst believes that the dollar exchange rate could even rise to 65 rubles by the end of the year, and “this does not take into account the actions of state-owned companies on foreign exchange market" If state-owned companies carry out their interventions, the exchange rate can easily exceed the 70 ruble level.

The American dollar, which consistently fell in price against the ruble throughout August and early September, began to grow again in the second ten days of the month. The maximum exchange rate for the entire summer season was recorded on August 4, when official rate amounted to 60.75 rubles. By September 9, the dollar had lost almost four rubles in value, dropping to 57.00 rubles. However, the American currency did not go below this level, but on the contrary, began to grow smoothly. What will happen to the dollar in the second half of September and October 2017, what is the opinion of experts on this matter - the forecast for the US dollar to ruble exchange rate is presented below.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for the second half of September 2017

Analysts expect that the rate will continue to rise in the near future. American dollar to the Russian ruble. One of the reasons for this is that the Russian economy, according to Central Bank Russia showed its worst trade balance in more than 14 years in July! Our country's dollar incomes are falling, but expenses are rising. And the import-export ratio of 20.8 versus 24.7 billion dollars, respectively, is the worst since April 2003.

Yes, there is an influx of foreign currency in the form of private investment in Russian economy, but this factor is quite fragile. If Western investment companies Due to new sanctions, investing in Russian bonds will be prohibited federal loan, this stream of money will dry up in no time.

The sentiment on the stock exchange also speaks about expectations of exchange rate growth.

Futures, that is, contracts deferred in time, for the dollar-ruble pair, are actively being bought by players, both individuals and organizations, and this indicates that both of them are waiting for the dollar to rise in Russia.

As for specific forecasts for the rest of September, analysts from the APECON agency offer next forecast dollar exchange rate for the second half of September 2017 in Russia:

already by September 20 the dollar may rise in price to 59.07 rubles,
To September 25 the dollar exchange rate will fall to 58.17 rubles.
course for September 30th – 57.17 rubles.

As we can see, so far experts believe that the dollar’s strengthening will be noticeable, but short-lived.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for October 2017

As for forecasts about what will happen to the dollar in October, the same APECON analysts are still predicting a final depreciation for the dollar at the end of the month. Opening the month with a value of approx. 57.17 rubles, the dollar by the end of October will fall in price to 56.38 rubles. Fluctuations during the month are possible in the range from 55.53 to 57.23 rubles.

As happens with most APECON forecasts, closer to the beginning of October, as well as as the month progresses, it will be adjusted, perhaps quite significantly.

Other experts, although they do not talk about likely exchange rates in a given month, generally expect the dollar/ruble exchange rate to return to the level of 60-61 rubles by the end of the year.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for October 2017 from September 30

The latest forecast by APECON experts, made at the very end of September, confirms their earlier conclusions about the fate of the dollar and ruble in October. The expected exchange rate at the beginning and end of the month has changed very little. Let's take a closer look at how, according to analysts, events on the currency exchange will develop in October:

at the opening of the month, on Monday, October 2, the dollar exchange rate will be set on the 3rd day at 57.13 rubles(the difference with the older forecast above is 4 kopecks),
at the end of the first week of the month, October 7, the dollar will cost 57.62 rubles,
based on the results of the second week of October, on the 14th - 57.40 rubles,
the third week will end with the dollar exchange rate on October 21 57.71 rubles,
the fourth week of October will end with the dollar exchange rate on the 28th around 57.56 rubles,
the month will close with the dollar exchange rate on November 1 at the level 56.53 rubles(difference from earlier forecast – 15 kopecks).

Thus, for now, analysts are not inclined to expect another sharp rise in the dollar exchange rate. The ruble will stick to American currency at a fairly stable level with a tendency to strengthen somewhat - within a month the dollar could fall in price by about 60 kopecks.

Making a forecast of exchange rates is a thankless task. I believe they meant the dollar to ruble exchange rate.

Let's just reason

The following factors influence the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar:

Oil prices.
Discount rate of the Central Bank of Russia.
Trade balance of Russia (balance between expert and import of goods).

Oil prices dropped below $50 per barrel and even the OPEC+ agreement did not improve the situation. At the same time, US shale oil production is growing every week, which pushes prices even lower. And Canada is catching up. This negative point for the ruble.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has been actively reducing the discount rate in recent months, but July showed an increase in inflation, and even a poor harvest this year. This could negatively impact inflation and push it higher. In this case, the Central Bank may stop raising rates this year and this will support the ruble. Such actions make the ruble popular for the carry trade strategy. Currency speculators will buy the ruble against the dollar, while borrowing the dollar at a lower interest rate, and giving the ruble back at a higher interest rate and benefiting from the difference in interest rates.

The trade balance has been declining in recent months, which is bad for the ruble exchange rate.

Conclusion: two out of three factors are negative, but the carry trade can support the ruble well; I think the dollar will be in the range of 60-62 rubles per dollar by the end of the year. The most dangerous thing is the departure of carry traders from the ruble; this can happen for various reasons; speculative capital is always dangerous. This scenario could cause jumps in the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for 2017 by month. Expert opinion on the prospects for the USD/RUB pair exchange rate.

What will happen to the dollar in the near future?

Despite the positive dynamics of the Russian currency at the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017, the interest of Russians in the foreign exchange market still remains high. Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to clearly predict the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, however, specifically at your request, we interviewed 8 independent experts and compiled a table with consensus forecasts for the dollar exchange rate by month for 2017. The forecast is given at the end of the period (month). If expert ratings change, the table will be updated.

The majority of analysts surveyed believe that in 2017 the USD/RUB pair will continue to gradually strengthen against the Russian ruble.

According to analysts, in the fall of 2017 the dollar exchange rate may return above 65 rubles, and at the end of the year it may reach 68 rubles.

As economists interviewed by our editors explain, anti-Russian sanctions remain a serious risk factor for the ruble, as well as the active development of the shale industry in the United States. Data coming from the US Department of Energy confirms these fears: the number of drilling rigs in the US has continued to grow steadily since May 2016.

Besides, Negative influence may have an impact on the ruble exchange rate in Russia money-credit policy TSB RF. As expected, the Bank of Russia will continue to decline in the second half of 2017 key rate(forecasts can be viewed). This factor may play against the ruble.

By the way, analysts also predict a depreciation of the ruble in the second half of 2017 brokerage company"Sberbank" In their opinion, this will be facilitated, among other things, by the Ministry of Finance’s interventions in the foreign exchange market, as well as the deterioration of the balance of payments.

Chapter Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin believes that the current ruble exchange rate will not change in the coming months:

The factors that influenced the ruble in the first half of the year are no longer so important, and we expect the ruble to be quite stable and remain around current values. Which we consider reasonable. We expect a stable ruble in the coming months

The department revised the average annual dollar exchange rate in 2017 - it was 64.2 rubles, now it is 59.7 rubles. The average annual exchange rate in 2018 will be 64.7 rubles.

Dollar forecast for 2018 by month. Table

Month	Average forecast at the end of the month, rub.
February 2017	59,62
March 2017	58,73
April 2017	58,94
May 2017	59,42
June 2017	59,54
July 2017	60,08
August 2017	61,01
September 2017	59,43
October 2017	59,11
November 2017	61,10
December	62,32