To begin with, it is worth noting that the euro is a foreign currency that occupies the second place in the ranking of monetary units for which hard times have come today. There are many reasons for the depreciation of the euro at the moment, the situation as a whole was also affected by Greece, which is mired in debt, like in silks, and refuses to repay its debts to direct debtors. It is difficult to give accurate forecasts of the exchange rate of the euro against the ruble at the end of 2019, but international experts still predict a period when the euro will fall much more. This will be discussed in this article.

What can affect the euro exchange rate in 2019

The exchange rate of the euro against the Russian ruble depends primarily on the following factors:

1. The interest rate set by the European Central Bank. So, at this time it is reduced to the minimum threshold value. In this regard, experts are implementing additional programs that stimulate the value of QE.
2. The amount of public debt in the European Union. In addition to Greece, loans were provided to Spain and Portugal. The decrease in the profitability of securities directly proportionally affects the foreign exchange rate.
3. If the price of Russian oil falls sharply, the foreign currency will also suddenly rise. This is quite possible in the absence of free capacities in American oil storage facilities and with regular deliveries of black gold from Iran. The oil market does not shine with stability, so at any moment the situation may change towards a decrease in the value of the ruble. For the domestic economy, such fluctuations do not mean anything good.
4. The ongoing crisis in Ukraine. The war escalates further, and peace negotiations are more like a farce that does not give any results. The neighboring state is trying to influence the Russian Federation with sanctions from the European Union. Either way, the new restrictions are forcing Russian citizens to tighten their belts.
5. Economic instability. A foreign investor leaves the territory of Russia and transfers his assets to another territory. More than a hundred financial and credit institutions may become bankrupt due to their own insolvency.

What to Expect in Fall 2018

If in the fall of 2015 the euro was 70.38 rubles, then in the second half of January it is expected that the euro will reach 74.35 banknotes in the national currency.

The highest rates of the ruble occurred in April-May 2015, when the euro fell to the value of 52.9 rubles. In June foreign currency unit was calculated already at 61.95 rubles, at the end of July this figure changed to 67 rubles. As of August 14, 2015, the euro remained at around 65 rubles.

Political uncertainty in the Eurozone and fragmentation of opinions about autonomy in Italy and Spain, the crisis of self-determination of Veneto and Lombardy - all this will determine what will happen to the euro in the near future. Important economic events for the Eurozone are now only being projected, as regards the possible curtailment of the policy of asset purchases. The zero interest rate may soon rise, which will significantly appreciate the currency. How likely it is, however, will be decided by the inflation rate.

Euro dynamics in 2017

To try to determine what will happen to the euro in the near future, one should remember how the currency was predicted to have a long parity with the US dollar. Perhaps for Eurozone producers such a forecast was very desirable, but the worst-case scenario did not come true. The currency hit a low on January 4, 2017 at 1.0338, after which, with two corrections, it reached a peak of 1.09 in 2.5 months. Then, for another three weeks, the currency fluctuated in the corridor of 1.056 - 1.077, after which the victory of E. Macron in the elections in France became the growth driver to 1.2095. As a result, the euro can be exchanged for US dollars today at the rate of 1.175, which is much higher than the option assumed by analysts.

The Eurozone currency often deceives the expectations of the bears, although there are examples in its history of a sharper fall. But the level of 1.0338 is a historical low that was reached in 2017. After that, the dynamics of the euro for the year is steadily growing even against the backdrop of a couple of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, which indicates the incredible strength of the uptrend. From September 14, it was replaced by a correction, unable to significantly weaken its gains, since even at a price of 1.175, the EU currency was heavily undervalued.

Hotspots of Political Uncertainty in the Eurozone

To form a forecast for the euro, one should assess the risks present in the region. They are partly due to political reasons related to the discontent of the rich regions of the crisis countries. For example, Catalonia, feeling the rise of nationalist sentiment, is striving for independence. By declaring the referendum in Barcelona invalid, Spain keeps the region within its borders. Moreover, this phenomenon had almost no effect on the euro quote, because investors hold their limit positions and did not remove orders from the market.

Moreover, having opened with only a small gap, the Spanish index quickly regained positions after the news and continued to move in the corridor in which it had been since May of this year. Its recession will continue, although now it has found support around the level of 10134.00. This means that it is difficult to surprise the Eurozone with political turmoil, and therefore investors remain calm and continue to work.

Uncertainty in Italian

Ideas similar to those of Catalonia, though not as radical, are observed in Italy. The rich and infrastructurally developed provinces of Lombardy and Veneto, while not yet talking about independence, insist on expanding their own autonomies on the basis of constitutional rights. Of course, the results of the referendums for Italy are only advisory in nature, but nevertheless, Rome is inclined to fulfill the request of the engines of the country's infrastructure development. In addition, this is only an internal problem in Italy.

Of course, this country will not provide a high exchange rate for the euro, like France, but its stability will make it possible to maintain the results obtained. As confirmation, an example of the growth of the European Euro Stoxx 50 index from December 2016 should be cited. As you can see, against the background of any political events, it grew. Having experienced a significant correction against the background of the end of the "fuel" from May to August, it continued to grow again. Its rally is fickle, but only shows that the Eurozone believes in the success of its policy of low interest rates, although this ensures the growth of bank debt.

The integrity of Europe is the guarantor of a strong currency

Assessing the consequences of England's exit from the Eurozone, more precisely, how it affected the dynamics of the euro, one can see how serious factors are the issues of the integrity of the economic bloc. The splitting of the UK from it significantly weakened the EU currency, although then only the results of the referendum were announced. In fact, Brexit itself was only announced by this, while negotiations were not even outlined. The political rhetoric and its implications have outstripped the contribution of the economy to the formation of exchange rates and the exchange of the euro.

Assessing this phenomenon, which has already secured its place in history along with the breakaway of England from Roman Catholicism in its time, we can assume that it is politics that can become a factor in the fall of the EU currency. More precisely, well-reasoned speculations about the integrity of the union will depreciate the euro.

Illusory precariousness of positions

So is the currency really in such a precarious position, and what will happen to the euro in the near future? Of course, the European currency is more than strong, and its value is reduced by the policy of asset buybacks and credit easing. This aims to reduce the cost of loans for infrastructure development. And exactly as important as the negative news about the violation of the integrity of the Eurozone, will have positive data about closer integration.

Traders have already received the most important signals this year. Firstly, this is Macron's primacy in the presidential elections in France and the controversial, but positive for Europe, elections in Germany. In addition, if Barcelona does achieve independence, which is almost impossible, it will still become a member of the EU.

An exception can only be the ballast states of the union: Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, which showed themselves negatively against the background economic problems and the development of ardent nationalism. It is obvious that civilized Europe does not need them, unlike Greece, Italy, Cyprus and Spain. These states are traditionally European and share the interests of the EU, although they do not work very actively for the good, such as Germany. Then what will happen to the euro in the near future? Of course, stability and cautious growth after the correction and even "dropping the ballast".

Euro correction

Assessing the accompanying factors of political and economic persuasion, it should be concluded that after a significant increase, the euro quote is waiting for correction and consolidation. Such instruments as EURUSD, EURGBP, EURCHF, EURJPY have made a significant breakthrough and, probably, the “fuel” for growth is running out. And therefore, if Mario Draghi does not begin to curtail the policy of quantitative easing, a slight rollback is expected for all euro pairs. The Euro Stoxx 50 and EURUSD are currently in this state.

In the absence of political catastrophes for the Eurozone, which could be a French exit from the EU, the pullback will be small and allow investors to accumulate large limit positions for a new trip up. Especially carefully will have to monitor the rhetoric of the heads of the ECB and inflation indicators. A hint of its increase to the level of 2% will be an important driver for the euro rally. Then its growth will continue for the next year.

Forecast in several theses

When answering the question of whether the euro will fall in the near future, one should use the negative. Indeed, the euro will not fall, but will feel the impact of a slight correction. Under this currency, there is a powerful fundamental background, which is still stronger than that of the dollar, which “hung” on Trump’s policy and reduce tax collection. This means that while there are many conflicts of interest in the EU, the economic bloc is looking to reap the rewards of its low interest rate policy.

Of course, when Mario Draghi starts raising interest rates, the outlook for the euro will be very optimistic. But this process may take a long time for the sluggish ECB, and therefore, given the large benefit to the EU from the low exchange rate of its currency, it is unlikely to rush into this. Then what will happen to the euro in the near future? The currency will be traded in the corridor formed by the levels of 1.148 - 1.188. From support, you can confidently conclude deals to buy, and from resistance, you can carefully sell. You can confirm the relevance of the levels by the CME futures volumes and its options.

Recently, we can see a strong fall in the European currency, which is declining against most other world currencies, especially against the US dollar. What is the reason for such a fall, and when will it be possible to count on the formation of a reverse upward trend?

The pressure on the euro, which continues to slide down, is associated with the asset buyback program. It is expected that after the Fed raises interest rates, the ECB may announce the need to extend the bond buyback program for the next year. This program is due to end in March 2017. If this is done, the euro could fall further down against most of the world's currencies, as such a decision would only weaken investment attractiveness in the eurozone.

Talk of further increases in already negative interest rates on deposits leads to a decrease in demand for risky assets, as few people want to pay the ECB for depositing their money in its accounts. In the future, this may lead to problems in the banking sector, which will lose a significant part of the profits due to such measures taken by the European Central Bank.

More recently, the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, spoke out in defense of the current monetary policy. At another press conference, Draghi said that extremely low interest rates do not harm consumers, and the regulator will continue to pursue such a policy until inflation reaches the target level. The President of the ECB has made it clear that until inflation begins to approach the target level of just below 2%, there will be no measures to tighten monetary policy.

Of course, all these statements do not add strength to the European currency, however, if we consider the current situation in a broader perspective, then the European regulator simply has “hands tied”, since other measures, apart from further lowering interest rates and buying back debt, the central bank simply no. On the other hand, in the future, such measures will really help spur inflationary and then economic growth in the euro area. A living example of this is the American economy, which used programs of this kind immediately after the start of the 2008 crisis.

So when can we expect the euro to rise?

According to traders on the site FxCraft.ru, there are no serious problems in the labor market of the Eurozone now, except for the countries that have suffered the most from the economic crisis, for example, Spain and Greece, and which are receiving serious financial assistance. The main problem is inflation. Therefore, as soon as the growth of this indicator stabilizes, talk about a possible reduction in the asset buyback program and an increase in the interest rate will immediately return. This may start as early as the 3rd quarter of 2017, which in itself will spur demand for risky assets and give good support to the European currency.

The fall of the US dollar, which is observed today in the currency markets, at first glance, may seem unjustified. However, experts in their forecasts have long noticed one pattern. The American currency has been heavily politicized lately, in addition, the US external debt introduces serious risks for investments in the country's economy.
Yes, of course, the fall of the dollar against other currencies, including against the ruble, can be explained by technical factors, but recent events in politics and economics in the world should only add to investors' faith in the US currency, but alas, quite the opposite is happening.

Reasons for the fall of the dollar and the ruble

Russia is under sanctions, which may be the most beneficial for many currencies of developed countries, including the dollar. Let us also recall that Washington's latest list was the most painful for the Russian economy, especially for banking sector. However, the Russian ruble has steadily passed the first few days of sanctions injections, and continues to grow today. Analysts say that this behavior of the Russian currency is due to the fact that many Russians and investors, having a lot of experience in monitoring the reaction of the ruble to sanctions, simply ignore them, since there has never been a single time when the ruble was strong and most importantly, it remained in the negative for a long time after the introduction of lists of restrictions by Europe and the United States. For speculators, the ruble remains the currency of quick earnings, and while the risk of losses from trading does not exceed the risks from external factors, the dollar will weaken against the ruble, and fall against other world currencies.

Falling dollar and oil

The oil market is unstable today, OPEC's attempts to organize production cuts and regulate world prices have not led to the desired result. Many countries, pumping their budgets with petrodollars, do not want to change their production policy, and according to experts, further negotiations between cartel countries and not only will only irritate oil market participants, and ultimately become just short-term news. Under these conditions, the United States is increasing production of shale oil and continues to actively develop deposits.

For the US dollar, the oil market has always been fuel and support, but not today. The dollar is weakening and its decline will intensify if oil prices do not stabilize.

Geopolitics and USD

The last thing I would like to note is the disappointment with which the United States lives after the election of Trump. Those reforms, which he did not get tired of talking about in the elections, turned out to be ordinary populism. Moreover, in the country there is a strong division of society along political and even racial views, which has not been in the States for several decades. This is perhaps the biggest problem for the dollar today. The recent skirmish between the United States and the DPRK showed the vulnerability of the American currency to foreign policy challenges. This, in turn, alerted the markets, and many investors began to say that the era of faith in the US dollar could end faster than one might imagine.

Thus, there are enough reasons for the dollar to fall today, and they did not all appear on the same day. Well, if we consider the issue of savings in the US dollar, then we need to understand that the vulnerability of the currency of a country where domestic and foreign policy is unstable is always higher than in those countries where investors understand at least the medium-term prospects for their development.
_________
Elena Sverdlova,
Lead Analyst,
Stock Markets Group

Last update:  02/03/2020

Reading time: 13 min. | Views: 51041

Hello, dear readers of the financial magazine "site"! Today we will try to answer the following questions: what will happen to the dollar in the near future; how much will the ruble and dollar cost in 2020; when will the crisis in Russia end and so on.

After all, the current economic situation causes unrest among the citizens of Russia with its total instability . The stability of the national currency causes concern, because all people are worried about the well-being of their own family, some are confused by the rise in prices for essential products. Many people save money in rubles and worry about their savings.

Anyway, and businessmen, and housewives, and students, and pensioners Concerned about one issue: what will happen to the ruble/dollar in the near future? No one can give an exact answer to these questions, even experienced analysts do not dare to make specific forecasts.

Some experts say that our currency will gradually get stronger, while others, on the contrary, advise waiting for the ruble to fall soon. Which of them is right? People are puzzled and looking for answers to these questions.

So, from this article you will learn:

• What will happen to the dollar in the near future;
• What will happen to the ruble and what will be the ruble exchange rate + dollar exchange rate forecast for 2020;
• What will happen to the ruble in the near future - latest news + our forecasts for the ruble exchange rate.

Having read the material to the end , you will find out our vision on the forecast of the ruble and the dollar.

If you want to know what will happen to the dollar in the near future, what will happen to the ruble, etc., then read our article to the end

1. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - scenarios and forecasts + expert opinions 📊

Everyone knows perfectly well that the exchange rate of the Russian national currency directly depends on the price of oil. Sanctions, which are carried out by Western countries, also affect the formation of the national currency. It is difficult to say what will happen to the ruble in 2020, even focusing on the policy of the Central Bank.

The imposition of sanctions against Russia was motivated by political actions in Ukraine, which began in 2013, when the revolution began in Ukraine. As a result, one part of the population began to resist. The inhabitants of the Crimean peninsula were the first to express their resistance.

The Autonomous Republic was the first to express a desire to withdraw from unitary Ukraine. Yes, in 2014 a referendum was held which brought together more than 83 % votes for secession from Ukraine and further accession of the peninsula to the Federation as a subject.

The international community, led by the United States, considered the annexation of the peninsula to Russia as a consequence hostilities And act of aggression in relation to the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, despite the fact that the inhabitants of Crimea themselves wanted secession from Ukraine.

As is known, October 14, 2014, EU candidate countries, joined the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Brussels. These sanctions limit the access of Russian banks to global capital. They also affected the restriction of the work of such industries in Russia as oil And aircraft building.

In particular, the restrictions apply to the following Russian oil and gas companies:

• "Rosneft";
• "Transneft";
• Gazpromneft.

The following Russian banks were affected by the sanctions:

• "Sberbank of Russia";
• "VTB";
• Gazprombank;
• "VEB";
• Rosselkhozbank.

Sanctions have not bypassed the industry Russian Federation:

• Uralvagonzavod;
• "Oboronprom";
• United Aircraft Corporation.

The sanctions consist in prohibiting residents of the European Union and their companies from trading in securities with a validity period of over 30 days , Russia's assistance in the extraction of petroleum products.

In addition, the Russians are prohibited operations with European accounts, investments, securities and even consultations European companies. The European Union also banned the transfer to Russia technology, equipment And intellectual property (programs, developments) that can be used in the defense or civil industry.

Introduced sanctions against some Russian companies, which were prohibited from supplying goods, services and technologies for special purposes to the European Union.

The restrictions also affected many officials who are prohibited from using their assets located in any of the EU countries, not to mention entry into the EU, which is also prohibited.

Canada has imposed similar sanctions. Citizens who are on the restrictive list of this country are prohibited from visiting it for any purpose, and all assets located in the country are frozen. Also, Canadian companies do not have the right to provide companies subject to sanctions funding for more than 30 days.

Sanctions imposed by the US authorities relate, first of all, to the supply of technologies and programs to the territory of Russia to support the Russian military forces. The sanctions also affected the ban on the supply of space components and technologies to Russia.

Now Russia is prohibited from using spacecraft, which were developed by US forces, as well as which include elements developed by the state. As a result of this ban, Russia was unable to launch the Astra 2G.

America banned issuing a list of Russian banks loan for more than 90 days .
All sanctions imposed by other states against Russia include a ban on the entry of an authorized list of persons into the territory of the country, freezing of their assets located on the territory of the state, a ban on Russia participating in the capital market, as well as a ban on any trade, economic relationship among companies, banks etc.

As you can see, the imposed sanctions are good hit the economy and development of the Russian Federation. Is it possible to do something for the normal functioning of the country and the stabilization of the economy?

Some experts express their opinion about the actions on the part of Russia to lift sanctions, or prevent their tightening.

First of all, it is recommended to show a refusal to support the militias in the Donbass. It is clear that Crimea will no longer become Ukrainian, but the hiding of refugees in different cities of Russia can prevent the emergence of new sanctions.

Russia needs to take a neutral stance and not respond to the sanctions imposed by the European Union. With Russia's retaliatory sanctions, the European Union introduces retaliatory bans. Moreover, the EU and the US have more leverage than Russia.

Russia needs to be friends with those countries that have not yet imposed sanctions against the Federation, thereby establishing its economic ties with them. This primarily concerns countries of the Middle East .

By cooperating, it is possible to issue joint bonds, investment projects. The Russian authorities themselves understand this, but they have not yet taken decisive steps.

Moreover, such a friendly policy with Asian countries will help Russia improve your export. Trade in oil products is now at a low level, and all because of prohibitions And sanctions.

Expanding supplies of oil and natural gas will help Russia eventually achieve a share of the stabilization of the national currency.

Neither side wants to make concessions. Europe is afraid of turning Ukraine into a so-called black hole in its very center. And at the same time, no one wants a final break with Moscow.

In this situation, it would be nice if Russia made a compromise, which would undoubtedly play its role. It is not worth waiting for such actions from the US government - having caved in under Russia, Trump will finally lose his rating, which is already not at the highest level.

What will happen to the ruble and the dollar in the near future - analysis and expert opinions

2. What will happen to the dollar in the near future and what will happen to the ruble in 2020 📈📉

In recent years, the exchange rate of the national currency of Russia has fallen more than than 20%. The population has never seen such a strong fall of the ruble. Many people are puzzled by the question of how the national currency will continue to behave. This is especially of concern to people who are going buy or sell assets, real estate, foreign currency and just people who are worried about the situation in the country. By the way, you can buy or sell currency, stocks and other assets at this broker .

The ruble is falling, and it is not known whether there will be enough money for a standard basket of essential goods, not to mention luxury goods.

The current situation in relations with Ukraine, the fall in oil and natural gas prices, and external restrictive sanctions forced the ruble to change its stable position. And oil and gas, as you know, accounts for more than 70% of the total state budget.

Also, the depreciation of the ruble will affect some countries that depend on cash flows from Russia, such as the Caucasus and some Asian countries. The result of this is the depreciation of the national currencies of these states.

Conflict situations in Syria and Ukraine only complicate the situation of the national currency.

The work of the Central Bank with foreign currency did not bring the required results in stabilizing the ruble exchange rate. According to some officials, there is only one way left that affects the ruble exchange rate.

They claim that they will now influence the course through inflation targeting. basis method is a set of measures that can affect the inflation rate and the country's credit policy.

Experts identify three main scenarios regarding the state of the ruble:

1. optimistic
2. anxious
3. realistic.

1st scenario - Optimistic

If you listen to the government, then Russia is on the way to restoration And economic growth . The price of a barrel of oil is expected to stabilize in Asia and Korea, which will rise to $95, and the dollar should acquire its former price value 30-40 rubles.

The percentage of GDP will change due to the lifting of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia, which will increase the indicator by 0,3-0,6 % . Such changes are expected in autumn 2020.

2nd Scenario - Alarm Scenario

Oil market collapses only worsen the situation of stabilizing the ruble exchange rate against the dollar. If we turn to statistical data, we can say that in 2016 the average exchange rate of the dollar in relation to the ruble was 68 rubles, now the US dollar is worth 65-75 rubles.

Our government's plans, according to some analysts and experts, do not at all include the adoption of measures to stabilize national work. The development of exports is what the state's efforts are aimed at.

Of course, the export of goods will bring additional income to the country, as Russia copes with the production deficit. The capacity of the state production forces does not allow processing the crops harvested by Russian farmers and diggers.

Do not wait for the ruble to stabilize its performance. If we look at the statistics 2014-2015, then we can recall that the percentage of expectation of a decrease in the level of internal gross product, was equal to 0.2, but already at the beginning of next year, this economic indicator reached almost 5% .

The fall of the economy can not have a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate. When calculating this percentage of GDP decline, the cost per barrel of oil is taken as the basis. As well as the conditions for the operation of all prohibitions and sanctions. So low economic indicators, whatever one may say, reduce the investment attractiveness of potential domestic and foreign investors. And this, in turn, significantly reduces the inflow of material resources into the country, which adversely affects the Russian economy.

With such far from optimistic data, we can say that the ruble will begin to lose its current positions.

Several reasons will contribute to this:

• The first factor is forecasting a decline in the price of oil on the world market. First of all, it concerns natural gas, which by its export brings a large share of the country's income. The same situation is predicted in the regions of Japan, America and Europe.
• The second factor is the country's geopolitics. The recent annexation of Crimea has led to the emergence of economic sanctions by Western states, which also prevent the ruble from stabilizing. The development of the Crimean peninsula entailed a large outflow of the country's capital.

Under such events, GDP is expected to decline to a figure that will be 3-3,5% . The dollar will stabilize, its value will be 50-65 rubles.

3rd Scenario - Realistic Scenario

As shown by the results of the vote held on June 22, 2015, the EU will not lift sanctions against Russia. We can confidently say that the sanctions will not be lifted and they will remain at their current level. With a possible aggravation with Ukraine, which is actively developing, the sanctions will only increase.

As for the price of oil, in this scenario it will remain the same price of $40-60 per barrel. GDP level will approach zero, and according to some analysts and forecasts World Bank GDP in Russia will have a negative indicator at all. The fall GDP will be about 0,7- 1 % .

Reasons for the fall and rise of the ruble. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - forecasts and opinions

3. Reasons for the growth and fall of the ruble - the main factors 📋

In the current situation, every citizen of Russia monitors the behavior of the ruble on foreign exchange market Forex. Many factors influence the decline and appreciation of the exchange rate. And now, more than ever, it is important for Russians not only to preserve their capital, but also to increase it. To do this, we have written an article about what a novice trader needs to know for successful Forex trading.

What influences the behavior of the national currency?

* Factors of growth of the ruble

Among the many reasons, one can single out those that have positive impact on the behavior of the national currency, namely:

• Country Politics. This factor directly associated with the ruble exchange rate, especially in the current situation today. Of course, most government decisions are made for the good of the country and are aimed at the development of Russia.
• Securities . Western partners' investment in securities and the assets of Russian companies contributes to the stabilization of the ruble on the world market. But, unfortunately, investing in securities as a process is underdeveloped. Perhaps, in the near future, Western investors will become more actively invest your capital while earning income in the form of dividends.
• The cost of oil. Everyone has long known that Russia has rich oil resources . Moreover, there is enough oil not only for the needs of the country, but also for exporting it to countries that do not have such a resource. By selling oil, Russia enriches its the state budget. That is, if the price of oil falls, then the country receives less income, respectively.
• The ratio of the population to the national currency. It is not immediately clear what the meaning of these words is, people normally relate to him. People stopped trusting national currency, deposits in rubles began to decrease. But this significantly affects the exchange rate of the ruble. The more the national currency is attracted, the better will be the country's lending policy, respectively, economic growth will not be long in coming. Moreover, the ideal situation is when foreign investors want to invest in rubles. But, for this, first of all, there must be economic stability. Therefore, the inhabitants of the Russian Federation, as residents, and Foreigners, have a great influence on the stability of the national economy and on the ruble exchange rate, in particular.
• Increasing the rate of national production. Increasing this indicator will allow not only to fulfill the planned production volumes, but also to exceed it. A high volume of production will not only meet the needs of the country, but also export goods and products, which will bring additional income to the state budget.

* Factors of the fall of the ruble

In weight with all the positive factors, there are also factors negatively affecting the ruble exchange rate . They depreciate the ruble in relation to other currencies.

These factors have a huge impact, our government should take serious measures to prevent them.

1. outflow Russian capital . This is, first of all, the movement of assets to foreign countries. The unstable position of the ruble forces investors to transfer money and their investments into foreign currency. By exchanging our money savings into another currency, we ourselves, without suspecting it, provide stability of a foreign state and its course. This is how capital is withdrawn from Russia. This has a devastating effect on the positions of the Russian national currency. The result of such negative actions for the country is the fall of industry and the economy as a whole. People refuse to invest in Russian economy, thereby providing itself with low well-being.
2. Foreign exchange rate. In this situation, the leading currency is exactly the one that has a strong position in the global foreign exchange market. It's impossible to influence it. This currency, first of all, is the dollar, which has a stable position, thanks to constant measures by the United States aimed at strengthening the national currency of the country. America is confidently strengthening its position. With the introduction of measures to stabilize the dollar exchange rate by America, the ruble loses its position. It is simply impossible to take measures to prevent the depreciation in such a situation, even with all the forces of the Russian economy.
3. Game of the population with exchange rates. The desire to make money on the exchange rate arises among the majority of Russians. They invest their savings not in rubles, but in dollars or euros, looking at stable foreign exchange rates. In this way, people secure their savings through a stable currency. In moments of a strong fall in the ruble exchange rate, huge transfers were made exchange of Russian money into foreign currencies, which also ensures the fall of the national exchange rate. Such actions confirm the fact that Russians do not trust the government, especially their promises that the ruble will soon stabilize.
4. Measures Central Bank . During the fall of the national currency, the bank refuses to convert the ruble into the dollar. This situation could prevent a significant fall of the ruble.
5. Share of gross domestic product. Russian production, by and large, stands still, industrial plants are not expanding. The country produces such a small share of its own goods and products that the income received from their sale is only enough to pay wages to workers. State-owned enterprises stand still, working on old equipment. The equipment that has been left since the times of the Soviet Union does not allow working at the capacity that is necessary for the development of the economy and the state as a whole. All this leads to distrust of people in domestic production, forcing them to buy imported goods.
6. Economic stagnation. This factor is a consequence of the low share of GDP in the country. Stagnation, that is, the stagnation of the national economy, is the result of preference for foreign goods when choosing one or another product. And this is not strange, because imported goods offer higher quality for about the same price category as a domestic manufacturer. The West is known for its advanced technologies production, which, unfortunately, Russia cannot yet boast of. Thus, giving preference to the goods of another producing country, we do not contribute to the development of the Russian economy and reduce the country's balance of payments, which directly affects the depreciation of the national currency.

4. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - expert opinion 🗒

As mentioned above, experts cannot reach a common denominator and no one can economic situation in the country, as their opinions are rather contradictory. But one thing can be said that 2020 will clearly be a difficult test for Russians, national economy and for ruble positions.

To understand the situation with the dollar, it is worth mentioning the forecasts of some economic experts in this regard.

💡 We recommend that you first read the opinion of experts and analytics from the company " ForexClub ". At the link you will find tabs and sections with fresh forecasts by a specialist, you can also buy and sell various assets through this broker.

Through the "Tools" tab, the purchase and sale of instruments (shares, currencies, etc.) is available. Analytics tab provides reviews, opinions and forecasts

Former Minister of Finance of Russia, Alexey Kudrin , believes that in the near future the country's economy is subject to a huge downturn. This opinion was served by the current political situation. As a result, the purchasing power of Russian citizens will decrease, which in turn will affect the economy as a whole, not to mention the ruble exchange rate.

modern economist, Vladimir Tikhomir , I fully agree with the opinion of Kudrin. According to the economist, the recovery of the economy and the achieved level of stability are just a temporary phenomenon, which will soon lead to the collapse of the ruble as a national currency.

The fall of the ruble as a national currency and the strong growth of the dollar portends Nikolay Salabuto . While holding the post of head of Finnam Management, the reason for this situation is associated with the imminent fall in oil prices over the course of several months.

According to the expert, the American national currency will rise to the mark 200 rubles per dollar .

Igor believes that several factors influenced this:

• restrictive sanctions, which will last at least until next year;
• the cost of oil, which will decline. This is due to Western competitors who export "black gold" for more favorable conditions. The United States increases oil exports every year, thereby "cutting off the oxygen" for large Russian supplies;
• national economy, which depends entirely on environment and economic situation in the country. This industry cannot develop independently, and directly depends on the geopolitical situation. The Russian economy requires constant modernization and development on the part of government agencies.
• US Federal Reserve, whose policy will be associated with some activities.

Igor Nikolaev expresses his opinion about the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Igor believes that the current measures and methods of the Central Bank are absolutely correct, and there is no need to subject the bank's policy to rethinking.

But this will in no way affect the stabilization of the national currency, the fall of which cannot be prevented. To eliminate this situation, according to the head of Finnam Management, it is necessary to eliminate the destructive factors cited above, since they all have an impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Sergey Khestanov , the director of ALOR Group of Companies, believes that the factors of the depreciation of the ruble can be conditionally divided into two categories: subjective and objective factors.

Subjective factors include those that have no justification from a political, legal or economic point of view. Here Khestanov includes, first of all, the opinions of experts (since each of them expresses his original point of view, guided by certain factors), as well as the outflow of funds.

Objective factors include those processes that directly affect the ruble exchange rate. These are external sanctions of other states, and the country's external debt.

It is impossible to predict the behavior of these factors, but the analyst is sure that the price of oil in $74 per barrel, will lead to an even greater fall of the ruble. This price will help reduce 10-15 % from the current value of the ruble.

The opinion of a modern financial analyst, Vitaly Kulagin , more reassuring. He believes that the position of the ruble today is the starting point. The analyst says that already in 2020, the national currency will adapt to the current situation and begin grow .

These are the opinions of leading analysts, as you can see, they are completely contradictory and do not have a single consensus. Before accepting the position and opinion of one of them, it is necessary for oneself to understand the strength of the factors influencing the position of the national currency.

5. Oil forecast for 2020 - news and forecasts 🛢

The cost of oil depends on the value of the dollar compared to the ruble. This dependency is shown as follows: with the growth of the dollar, the price of oil is falling, respectively the ruble is losing ground . When oil prices rise, the dollar falls and the ruble rises.

Graph of the dependence of the value of the ruble on the cost of oil

Impossible to predict oil price in 2020. External Economic Bank predicts the cost 6 $0 per barrel or more . At the same time, the resistance level of this price is at the price of $70, and the support level is $42.

Thanks to the latest news, the cost of a barrel of oil is falling. Resistance at this stage is $75 and $85. If these levels are broken through, the price of oil will probably “go” to $98-100. Support — $45, when “breaking through” down — leaving the range of $25

At the beginning of 2016, the price of oil took the position of an absolute minimum over the past decade and was equal to $28 per barrel. That is, the cost of oil can take any price at any time of the year.

6. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - the coming years: breaking news + expert forecasts of leading banks 📰

For a long time, the ruble has not been able to stabilize its position against other foreign currencies, such as dollar And Euro. Due to difficult economic circumstances, the ruble lost most of its value.

Some foreign states, experiencing economic crises, also observed a decline in the national currency. The foreign policy actions carried out by the state force many analysts and experts to give different forecasts about the economic situation of the Federation and about the national currency rate, in particular.

Fluctuations of the ruble may be associated with various domestic and foreign policy actions on the part of the state and its government.

The World Bank gives quite comforting forecasts about the ruble exchange rate and oil prices . According to the most respectable bank, the ruble will stabilize in 2020, and dollar will cost about 58-60 Russian rubles . As for the cost of oil, it will stabilize at $63 per barrel.

Chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina , recently expressed her opinion about the country's economy in an interview for a leading TV channel. She did not name the prices of the ruble and oil, but said that the policy pursued by the United States to introduce measures to strengthen the dollar would also support the currencies of some states, including Russia. The fall in the national exchange rate, according to the chairman of the Central Bank, was due to the fall in oil prices, as well as the closure of the possibility of entering the global financial market.

Vnesheconombank believes that in 2020 the price per US dollar will be 55-58 rubles if the policy of OPEC will contribute to raising quotations per barrel of oil to 75-80 dollars.

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development asserts that financial cash flows sent to our country will be reduced by at least 10 percent. The reason for this opinion was the huge internal loans of the state, among banks, as well as external restrictions on loans. There is a threat of rapid depletion of production capacity as a result of a reduction in investment and simple financial flows.

Do not forget that an industry such as the oil and gas industry will also suffer due to lack of funding, and as a result, the inability to work at full capacity. A change in the supply of raw materials to other countries will undoubtedly affect foreign exchange relations, which will not play in favor of our currency.

One of the Canadian banks Scotiabank , the third largest in the country, gives not the most optimistic forecasts for the Russian national currency. One American dollar will cost 69 rubles by the end of the year.

According to one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman Sachs , by 2020 the exchange rate of the national currency will be equal to 60 rubles per dollar. The price of oil will fluctuate, but by the end of next year it will be $70 per barrel.

All world banks agree that the ruble exchange rate is successfully strengthening. Forecasting the rise in oil prices cannot but rejoice. But, to raise the economy as a whole, you will have to stock up patience And baggage of actions, because a quick return to the former situation is not worth waiting for.

7. Frequently asked questions on the exchange rate of the ruble and the dollar 📢

Question number 1. Is it true that the dollar will be canceled in 2020?

The issue of abolishing and limiting the US currency has been troubling the population for some time now. From time to time this issue is raised in some political statements and legislative projects.

At the moment, the government is taking all sorts of actions to reduce the dollar turnover in the country. Sergey Glazyev, who holds the post of presidential adviser, proposed his plan for economic development country. One of the points of the plan is precisely the reduction of the dollar turnover in the country. Glazyev further explained this by saying that the United States is already developing a plan to limit the use of the dollar in the country, and this plan will be a retaliatory strike.

It is clear that it will not be possible to completely exclude the dollar from the country, since this currency is the basis of the world financial system. The policy of the state is primarily aimed at eliminating the dollar currency from small sectors of the economy. Such actions will undoubtedly lead to the growth of the national currency of Russia.

For example, trade in Russia's national resource, as natural gas for rubles, and not for dollars, will force many states to use the ruble, which will force the dollar to drop in relation to the ruble. If large countries decide to sell US Treasury bonds, thereby getting rid of the dollar, the entire US financial system will collapse in an instant.

City Express CEO Alexey Kichatov assesses the chances of abolishing the dollar in the country as minimal. Kichatov claims that this will be a powerful blow to the Russian economy.

In addition, he predicts the difficulties that the Russian people expect, since the savings of the population, to a greater extent, are stored in dollars.

Anton Soroko does not exclude partial the disappearance of the dollar in Russia . According to the analyst, it will take a long time, which will eventually lead to the emergence of two rates of shadow turnover. He cites Venezuela as an example. Trying to fight the outflow of capital, the authorities limited the dollar turnover, as a result, two courses were formed in the country: official and unofficial.

Question number 2. What is the forecast for the ruble against the dollar for the next week?

In forecasting the course, you should not take into account news events, politics, since these factors are not taken into account when making a forecast for the near future, they are too suspicious and unstable.

Since no significant change and stabilization of the exchange rate is expected in the near future, the ruble exchange rate for the next week will be 65-75 rubles against the dollar, as there are no special reasons for the stabilization of the exchange rate.

We remind you that fresh forecasts and analytics regarding the exchange rate of the dollar, ruble and other instruments for the next day, week, month can be found at link here 📊.

Question number 3. When will the dollar fall (collapse)? Will the dollar fall soon?

The exchange rate of the ruble, as already mentioned, directly depends on investments in the national economy. Moreover, the more investments will be made in Russian capital, assets and economy, the more reliable will be the position of the national currency. And such a process as investing in the Russian economy is connected with the position of the dollar in the country.

The exchange rate of the American currency is also affected import balance And export . These indicators, for good economic growth of the country, must have an appropriate level. The ideal situation is when the export of goods from the country exceeds the import of imported goods, this allows you to enrich the state budget.

Speaking of this balance, it must be remembered that America has the largest public debt . In addition, the US has a large budget deficit, which forms the country's domestic debt. Based on this, the value of the dollar, as a world currency, should fall.
But questions arise why, in such a situation, the dollar remains the most reliable currency in the world.

People trust the dollar because the American currency is highly liquid and the most convertible currency in the world. Why experts' forecasts do not come true from year to year, and why does the dollar remain the most demanded currency in the world? ? What are the consequences of the fall of the dollar?

If the dollar falls anyway, to be replaced by another currency. It is necessary to think about what kind of currency could replace the dollar in terms of convertibility, liquidity and reliability.

Many experts cite Euro to replace dollar. But do not forget that the EU currency is relatively young, which is now also going through difficult years. Many EU countries are experiencing economic crisis . This is first of all Greece, Portugal, Spain and others.

The reason for this stagnation is also America's large debt to these countries. The euro also depends on the dollar, more precisely on its exchange rate.

The dollar remained the most stable currency, even when all countries were going through a period of default and all stocks, real estate and assets were falling in price. This helped the dollar strengthen its position even more. Even in a crisis, when everything was depreciating, the dollar remained the most reliable currency.

Due to its stability, high liquidity and high conversion rate, many countries use as a currency basket exactly the dollar . This diversification occurs in order to save the accumulated funds and their possible increase.

This method is used by such economically strong states as Brazil, China, Russia and many other countries. The use of the dollar as a currency basket contributes to stability and demand for the national currency of America.

The state itself is doing everything possible to keep the exchange rate of its currency at a high level. If rumors are to be believed, the economic crisis was actually caused by one of America's "powerful moves" that was staged to support the national course.

In 2008, in order to maintain the economic situation in America, it was decided to launch a new dollar cash flow. During this period it was over a trillion dollars printed.

America's actions did not lead to inflation, as the demand for the dollar did not decrease. As long as there is demand for the national American currency, the dollar will not fall.

The fall of the dollar is possible only in such cases as:

1. the sale by major countries of the world of treasury bonds of the American currency and the rejection of the dollar as a currency;
2. if countries stop trading with the dollar, the American financial system will collapse. Russia is actively pursuing this method by selling its goods for rubles. Previously, this was simply unthinkable. It was necessary to sell oil for dollars, and then pay off with the same currency with another country for the necessary assets or goods.

If each country, when trading and buying, uses its own national currency, and not the dollar, then the exchange rate of the latter will go down. Countries will simply stop using the American currency with today's activity, it will become less in demand.

Question number 4. Will the dollar rise in 2020?

We have already described in detail the possible forecasts for the dollar. The dollar can both rise and fall. This also includes dependence on the decision of the Fed. Analysts and experts predict that the Fed plans to raise interest rate which could have a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate.

8. What will happen to the ruble in the near future 2020: latest news + our fundamental and technical analysis of the market 💎

Periodically, we will publish our forecasts and our visions for the ruble and dollar exchange rate, analyzing the market, conducting our own, mainly technical analyses.

* Forecast of the dollar exchange rate for the near future

From the last technical analysis it follows that the probability of the dollar falling below 55 and 50 rubles is minimal, as well as its growth above 85 rubles. In any case, you should conduct analytics and make forecasts on your own. No one knows the exact forecasts!!!

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9. Conclusion + related video 🎥

Analyzing all the forecasts of world famous banks and analytical experts, one can hope for a speedy stabilization of Russia's national course. You just need to stock up on a certain baggage of patience, the strengthening of the ruble will soon occur.

But despite such bright prospects, it should be understood that Russia today does not have the best economic situation, which can be affected by various actions, and not only internal , but also external political factors taken by the policies of other states.

A very precarious situation, the national budget deficit and external sanctions haunt the people of Russia. According to official statistics, in the past two years Russia has spent one hundred fifty billion gold and foreign exchange reserves. Spending was stopped, but if oil prices continue to decline, Russia will face total budget deficit.

After all, the country's income will drop significantly, and to maintain a functioning level of the economy of such a huge state, considerable cash. The opinions of experts and leading banks, of course, are promising, but you should not rely only on their forecast.

All Russians want to believe in the stabilization of the national currency. Everyone is already tired of thinking about the dollar and waiting for the level to improve wages and pensions.

Need to raise purchasing power population, raise the level of the economy and the level of gross domestic product.

But you need to look at the current situation through the prism of reality and not just wait for improvements, but contribute to them, buying goods national production and making contributions to national banks.

We hope that you now understand that the answer to the questions - "What will happen to the dollar in the near future?", "What will happen to the ruble?" Everyone is looking for himself, making his own forecasts and relying on his own principles.

If you have questions and suggestions, we are ready to discuss them in the comments to the article.

In conclusion, we suggest watching an interesting video