It is worth saying that the department’s latest forecast is characterized by not too optimistic indicators - estimates of the expected pace GDP growth for the period from 2017 to 2019 were revised by experts downward. Of all the macroeconomic indicators announced by the department, only inflation rates inspire some optimism. It is expected that by the beginning of 2018 they will slow down to 4% per year.

The Ministry of Economic Development predicts Russia's GDP growth within 0.9%

As for GDP, analysts from the Ministry of Economic Development believe that Russia is unlikely to demonstrate the previously adopted figure of 1.7% in 2018. The current forecast is GDP growth of 0.9%. Forecasts for 2019 have also been adjusted - if previously it was assumed that the Russian economy would be able to demonstrate growth of 2.1%, today they are talking about a value of 1.2%.

The reason for the adjustment was sharply worsened forecasts for oil prices. Experts do not expect prices above $41-45 per barrel. As a result, a new one had to be announced - 71.1 rubles per dollar in 2018-2019, which is significantly lower than the previously expected level of 64.5 rubles.

Forecast of the Central Bank of Russia

According to forecasts voiced by Elvira Nabiulinna (the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation), analysts at the bank under her control believe that in 2017 and 2018 the Russian economy will show moderate growth, which will range from 1.7 to 2.3% per year. The country's chief banker named the increase in domestic demand, which will be accompanied by an increase in consumption and investment, as the main active factor.

Nabiulinna also voiced several scenarios for further development Russian economy, reporting that each has approximately the same probability of becoming a reality. The scenarios were based on the following assumptions:

• for the first scenario, called optimistic, the basis is the forecast that oil prices will reach the level of $80 per barrel by the second half of 2018;
• A conservative forecast suggests that the price of a barrel of black gold will rise to $60 per unit.

The Central Bank specialists have a traditionally optimistic view of inflation, which should fall to 4% by the end of 2018.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation predicts strong economic growth for Russia

Forecast from RANEPA and the Institute of Economic Policy

Most macro forecasts published by non-governmental Russian economic organizations contain even more pessimistic data. For example, specialists from RANEPA and the Institute of Economic Policy named after. E.T. Gaidar expects that in 2018 the country is unlikely to show growth above 0.8%, and the improvement in 2019 will be characterized by 1.5% GDP growth.

Experts from these organizations explain the optimistic statements of the Ministry of Economic Development by saying that the government department simply cannot issue a pessimistic forecast. In this case, the country's leadership will consider the work of the Ministry of Economy ineffective, so they have to embellish the real figures. But one should not think that the stabilization of oil prices and the slowdown of inflation processes should become reasons to relax, say experts from RANEPA.

They believe that overly optimistic data is a direct path to slowing down much-needed reforms in Russia. The report of this institution contains information that the Russian economy will remain as unstable in the near future - even if the income of Russians grows, the population will not rush to spend money, preferring to accumulate it, so there can be no talk of any significant increase in consumption.

In the best case, analysts say, market stabilization will begin towards the end of 2019. Let us recall that this position is fundamentally different from government statements, because not so long ago it was reported that Russia passed the bottom of the crisis back in 2015, and today is demonstrating a steady trend towards promising growth. RANEPA also published two probable scenarios for the development of the situation in the country, based on optimistic and pessimistic oil price forecasts.

• The base version of the forecast states that quotes will be set at $40 per unit of volume. Wherein Russia's GDP will show growth of no more than 1.4% in 2018, and the dollar will cost about 69-72 rubles. With such forecasts it is assumed that in two years Russian households will return to the pre-crisis level of consumption, and from 2019 a stable increase in domestic investment in industry will begin. It is this scenario that is considered by experts to be the most likely, so it is advisable to take these calculations into account when making adjustments to the three-year budget for 2017-2019;
• In the optimistic version of the scenario for 2018, it is assumed that oil will rise to $60 per barrel, which will lead to GDP growth of up to 1.9%, and the ruble will strengthen, reaching a quote of 57 rubles per 1 US dollar. This will lead to an increase in income from the sale of oil and gas and a reduction in budget deficit. If this scenario is realized, experts predict an increase in the standard of living of Russians with a slight increase in social obligations from the state and business.

Inflation is likely to reach 6% in 2018, exacerbating problems

The forecast does not support the inflation expectations of the Ministry of Economic Development - experts say that, at best, Russia will end 2018 with inflation of 6%. At the same time, economists from the Gaidar Institute and RANEPA say that the growth rate of the country’s economy in any of the considered scenarios will not reach the level of countries classified as world leaders.

According to estimates by the Gaidar Institute, economic restructuring and reorientation of production should lead to federal budget revenue in 2017-2019 being even lower than in the previous two years. In 2017, revenues from the sale of oil and gas may amount to about 37.4% of Russia's budget revenues, but already in 2019 this figure will decrease to 36.0%.

Economic forecasts from TsMAKP

Specialists from the Center macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting show the Russians the most negative calculations, saying that uncertain trends in the domestic market with remaining external risks may well lead to a new crisis wave in 2018. The analysts' conclusions can be summarized as follows:

• even if the most optimistic scenario is implemented, with oil prices at $55 per barrel, GDP growth will be no more than 0.5%, and in the case of the base case, which assumes oil at $40 per unit of volume, Russia will end the year with zero results;
• under the most optimistic forecast, the real income of Russians will grow by 2.2%. If the base case scenario becomes reality, we should not expect growth of more than 1.1%. Moreover, in the last six months alone this figure has shown a drop of 5%.

Analytics of the Higher School of Economics

Experts from the Higher School of Economics speak about Russia's future in an even more negative light, explaining it as follows: there are no prerequisites for the Russian economy to show growth in 2018. Among the main factors that have a noticeable negative impact, analysts cite the lack of investment activity, high risks, which are completely impossible to calculate, and the almost complete zeroing of the Reserve Fund.

As a result, according to the conclusions of Valery Mironov, who holds the post of Deputy Director of the HSE Development Center, Russia can confidently expect a continuation of the recession, which will be accompanied by GDP growth of no more than 1% in 2018.

graduate School economy forecasts a financial recession in the Russian Federation in 2018.

Forecasts of international organizations and agencies

Foreign experts have somewhat improved their assessments of the Russian economic future, but they still remain far from the optimistic indicators that economists from government departments predict for Russians.

Forecast from the World Bank

Experts from this international organization conducted a comprehensive study of the indicators characterizing the Russian economy and formulated the main directions for overcoming the crisis situation and stimulating the rate of restoration of its growth in the near future.

The main points of reform are the development and implementation of innovative approaches to business regulation. It is important to direct them to eliminate the maximum number of existing restrictions, most of which are administrative in nature. In addition, among the problems, World Bank experts name the lack of necessary market infrastructure, restrictions in the field of innovation, problems in the investment climate and depreciation of fixed assets.

Separately mentioned is the need to stimulate the development of qualifications among the workforce, since, despite the high level of education, workers almost never engage in improving highly specialized skills in the profession due to the lack of incentives from employers. It was also noted that the crisis in pension provision can only be overcome.

The World Bank proposes to the Russian government to raise the retirement age

Analysts from the World Bank suggest that in the next few years the country's GDP will not tend to change significantly. Most likely, we can only hope for a slight increase of 1.5% in 2017 and no more than 1.7% in 2018. This increase is associated only with oil prices, which experts predict a slight increase to $55.2 per barrel in 2017 and 59.2 dollars per barrel in 2018.

However, even such positive dynamics in oil prices does not give reason to hope for a significant improvement. economic life. Until Russia takes the path of economic diversification, external risks arising from the volatility of commodity prices in the markets will continue to have a negative impact on it.

Experts from the World Bank suggest that the government can somewhat mitigate potential risks by increasing wages and intensifying investment in order to provoke increased demand for goods and services from the population, as well as provide injections into the national economy from the business sector.

Forecast from Standard & Poor’s Global Rating

Experts from the analytical agency Standart & Poor’s adhere to approximately the same forecast regarding GDP growth, predicting positive changes in the Russian economy as early as 2017, when, according to their calculations, GDP will increase by 1.4%. However, this is not the optimal value for a country that is going through times of crisis. In the case of stable commodity prices, Russia can expect that in 2018 the level of GDP will “grow” by another 1.6% in relation to the previous year.

Agency analysts say that even such a slight increase in macroeconomic indicators will make it possible to improve the functioning of the banking sector, but one cannot yet count on an increase in consumption by the Russian population. The fall in real incomes of Russians has had a very negative impact on their propensity to consume, and to reverse this trend, a fairly significant increase in wages is required, which experts from Standard & Poor’s estimate at at least 10% per year.

Standard & Poor’s predicts a deepening of the crisis - all because the 10% wage increase Russians need is economically impossible

At the same time, the agency forecasts oil prices at $52.4 per barrel. Other international organizations they also do not expect positive dynamics in oil prices. According to forecasts by representatives of the International Monetary Fund, oil prices will be set at around $50.6 per barrel in 2017, rising to $53.1 in 2018. And experts from the American Energy Information Administration say that the price of oil can reach a level of 51.0 USD.

Despite the fact that the current economic situation in Russia is difficult to predict due to the high risk appetite, every year various analytical companies, government experts, international organizations and agencies make a forecast about economic development in the coming years. How the Russian economy will develop in 2018. Let's analyze the experts' forecast, which will help to understand this issue.

Opinion of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation

Forecasting the state of the economy is the primary task of the Ministry. He prepares and publishes research materials on the expected state of affairs for the next 3 years. These data are used as a basis by the government when approving the budget.

The economic condition depends on several factors. What is the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for their indicators?

GDP growth rate

Initially, the figure was expected to be 1.7%. However, later experts revised it downwards. So what to expect next? Recent forecasts indicate growth:

• according to the optimistic scenario – within 1.4%;
• conservatively - 0.9%.

Despite these rather small values, the Ministry of Economic Development expects an increase, compared to 2017, in investments in the Russian economy ranging from 2.2% to 3.9% and its revival. This positive trend should continue in the future.

For 2019, the inertial scenario predicts 1.2% GDP growth, the conservative one – 0.7%.

Inflation rate

The Ministry of Economic Development's forecasts in this regard are optimistic. It is expected to significantly slow down and reduce price growth:

• by the beginning of 2018 - up to 4%;
• in the subsequent period – up to 3-3.5%.

Low inflation will enable the Central Bank of Russia to lower the key rate. This will reduce the cost of borrowed resources and improve the situation in the lending sector.

Income of the population

The high level of inflation and the devaluation of the ruble have significantly devalued the wages of Russian citizens. This had a negative impact on domestic demand and, as a result, on economic development.

For 2018, it is planned to increase the real income of Russians by 1.5-2%.

Oil production size

In order to balance the oil market and create a sustainable increase in oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) extended the restriction on oil production until March 2018. However, last news oil market allow us to predict the volatility of the cost of “black gold” due to existing competition, including due to the expansion of shale oil production in the United States of America.

Modern technologies will reduce the cost of shale projects and increase the US market share in the oil market, and the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will allow them to increase oil production. The project promises to be profitable if oil prices fluctuate around $50 per barrel. The position is also unclear Saudi Arabia, which is not going to give up its place in the market.

Oil prices

Two types of forecast for oil price fluctuations are considered:

1. Basic forecast. He points to oil prices ranging from $50 to $60 a barrel. If this scenario is followed, the Russian economy will continue the positive dynamics of its development.
2. Pessimistic forecast. Oil prices will drop to $41-45 per barrel, which will create additional problems for the budget.

If the price of oil falls to $40, economic growth will slow down significantly.

Currency quotes

Experts from the Ministry of Economic Development expect a moderate decline in the value of the Russian currency. In 2018-2019 it will be about 70-71.1 rubles. for 1 US dollar. The positive aspects of the weakening of the ruble can be:

• support for domestic exporters;
• reduction of the budget deficit;
• increase in the ruble price of oil.

Among the negative aspects, one can note the risk of rising inflation, which will be reflected in the worst side on the incomes of Russians, will not provide an opportunity to accelerate economic development.

That is why it is important to stabilize the foreign exchange market, which will lead, among other things, to an increase in citizens’ savings. And this, in turn, will have a positive impact on increasing investment in various sectors of the Russian economy in 2018-2019 and accelerating the growth of industrial production.

Monitoring by RANEPA and the Yegor Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Experts from this organization believe that the inflation rate in 2018 will be about 6%. They developed and published 2 development scenarios, depending on projected oil prices. But in any case, according to experts, the state of the Russian economy will not be able to approach the level of states that are world leaders.

Optimistic development scenario

GDP growth in 2018 will be 1.9% due to oil prices within $60 per barrel.

The average annual exchange rate of the ruble will reach 57-59.4 rubles. in 2018. And, taking into account the news of the Russian economy, in 2019 independent experts predict the ruble exchange rate to be 58.8 rubles. for $1 US.

Thanks to this, income from the sale of oil and gas will increase, which will reduce the budget deficit. If the state at least slightly increases its social obligations, the standard of living of the population will increase.

Conservative scenario

This scenario, according to experts, is the most possible. GDP growth will range from 0.9% to 1.4% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019. Oil prices will remain around $40 per barrel. The exchange rate will be from 69 to 72 rubles. for $1 US.

All these indicators will lead to the fact that various economic groups will achieve consumption levels corresponding to pre-crisis parameters. The development of the Russian economy in 2019 will be characterized by an increase in domestic investment in domestic industry.

Forecast of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation

One of the most optimistic forecasts for 2018 is given by analysts from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. In their opinion, Russia expects stable economic growth. The inflation rate by the end of 2018 should be 4%. GDP growth is expected to be between 1.7-2.3%.

The head of the Central Bank, E. Nabiullina, announced that the bank’s experts had developed 2 possible development scenarios that have approximately equal probability of implementation:

1. Optimistic. By mid-2018, the price of oil will be $80 per unit volume.
2. Conservative. Oil prices will be $60 per barrel of oil.

The fundamental reason for economic growth will be an increase in domestic demand, which will lead to an increase in investment investments and consumption.

The most negative forecasts of Russian analytical organizations

The most negative calculations for further development were presented by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting and the Higher School of Economics. They not only talk about the absence of prerequisites for economic growth, but, on the contrary, predict a zero result (CMAKP) or even a recession (HSE).

TsMAKP analysis

In an optimistic scenario, experts predict:

• oil price is around $55 per barrel;
• GDP growth will not exceed 0.5%;
• real income of the population will increase by 2.2%.

With the basic development option:

• the price of oil will be no more than $40 per barrel;
• GDP growth will be 0%;
• the population's income will increase by no more than 1.1%.

The center's analysts even predict that the Russian economy in 2018-2019. can survive new crisis, citing undefined trends in the domestic market and existing high external risks.

HSE conclusions

Forecasters talk about insufficient investments, depletion of the Reserve Fund, and uncalculated risks. The maximum possible GDP growth will not exceed 1% in 2018. All this will lead to a decline in production and a slowdown in economic growth.

Forecasts of foreign experts

International analysts slightly improved their forecasts compared to previous estimates:

1. The World Bank forecasts GDP growth in 2018 of 1.7%. The cost of oil will be about $59.2 per barrel. According to experts, in order to increase consumption and for additional investments made by entrepreneurs in the domestic economy, it is necessary to increase wages for the population and intensify investments. To eliminate the crisis in the pension sector, the Bank advises raising the retirement age.
2. Standard & Poor's Global Rating predicts growth GDP level by 1.6%. Oil quotes will reach $52.4. To increase the level of consumption, it is necessary to increase the salaries of Russians by at least 10%, which, according to the organization’s experts, is currently not possible.
3. The European Commission expects the inflation rate to be 4.7%. GDP growth - 1.1% (previously the same commission predicted 0.6%, but improved the forecast based on oil prices and, albeit insignificant, stabilization of the ruble).

Other foreign experts on key indicators agree with these forecasts.

What will the Russian economy look like in 2018? The forecast of experts from domestic and foreign analytical organizations gives different views on this issue. Time will tell which of the forecasts will be the most correct.

Expert opinion on the economy:

Economic impasse:

Dear readers! In the “Money 2018” section, significant financial analysts and experts will answer the most popular questions - how to cheat inflation, how much the ruble and dollar will cost, whether to take out a mortgage, whether to mine bitcoins, and also in what cases to keep money under the pillow. We'll also touch on possible problems and business prospects in Russia in 2018. We hope you find the information useful.

ABOUT THE RUBLE, EURO, DOLLAR, STOCKS, BLOCKCHAIN ​​AND BUSINESS

Natalya Milchakova,
Deputy Director of the Analytical Department
Alpari companies

– What are your forecasts for the foreign exchange market? Is it worth playing on the currency exchanges, buying cash currency, transfer money to foreign currency deposits?

– We believe that until the end of the year and at the beginning of 2018, the dollar will remain in the range of 58-60 rubles/dollar, and the euro in the range of 68-70 rubles/euro. We can see the euro/dollar pair at the beginning of the year at levels of 1.17-1.19 dollars/euro. It’s worth playing on currency exchanges, unless you play on the exchange rates of exotic currencies - there are enormous risks, Bitcoin is better (but you need a lot of money to invest in Bitcoins). However, first the investor needs to assess his risks and understand how much or how little he is willing to lose in the event of unfavorable market conditions. If he is not ready for big losses and big profits, then he should avoid Forex and the stock market. If you are not ready to lose a penny at all, then you should keep your money in Sberbank or buy cash dollars from the same Sberbank or from another trusted bank and keep them at home under your pillow. But the return on deposits will be small. If you choose between cash currency and a foreign currency deposit, then cash currency is better, interest on foreign currency deposits V Russian banks very small, and with cash, for example, you can go abroad for Christmas shopping, for example. However, investing in cash also has its risks. For example, those who kept their savings in dollars during this year lost a lot, and those who kept their savings in euros could earn 11-12% profit over the year. And since the beginning of the year, the ruble has strengthened against the dollar by only 1.3%, and fell by 9% against the euro. Uncertainty and risks are everywhere, you just need to learn (and most importantly, want) to manage them correctly.

– Prospects for the ruble and the domestic market valuable papers? Should we expect profit from such investments?

– Both in the foreign exchange market and in the stock market you can make both profits and losses. It is only important to choose the right investment instrument. For example, in 2016, the ruble strengthened against the dollar by more than 20% and became the most “super profitable currency” in the world. And this year, the ruble will most likely end the year strengthening against the dollar, but it may turn out to be very small. So there is a third option in financial markets - to get a return per year below inflation. In the stock market, a lot depends on what form of investment you choose. If you choose the so-called collective investment, that is, you give money to mutual funds, you need to be prepared for the fact that the yield will be low, the inflation rate plus a few percentage points. And even with this form of investment there is a risk of incurring losses. It is better, in our opinion, to buy shares directly. This year, Tatneft shares showed very good returns. Shares of state-owned companies and blue chips, that is, the most reliable issuers, also pay good dividends. At the beginning of the year, you can purchase preferred shares of a reliable issuer; they pay dividends above inflation.

– What does business expect in 2018? What should he prepare for: new taxes, tough checks, expensive loans, further reduction purchasing power Or will the pendulum finally swing in the other direction?

– In 2018 there will be new taxes (excise taxes on gasoline and a number of excisable goods, return of the tax on movable property), but new ones will also appear tax benefits For example, regions have already received the right (but just a right, not an obligation) to exempt enterprises from movable property tax, and some regions will take advantage of this right from January 1. Unfortunately, taxes will not decrease. Interest rates on loans will continue to decline, and loans will become more accessible, another thing is that it is not for everyone: for example, enterprises that do not own land, real estate or a large number of fixed assets will find it difficult to get a loan, since they will not be able to provide the bank with collateral that suits it. But “nightmare” checks may become fewer in the future with the development of new technologies; more precisely, many of them will be carried out, but in in electronic format. Probably, the increasingly widespread use of blockchain technology will have its say. As for purchasing power, according to official forecasts, consumer demand will recover in 2018, but will only be able to recover to pre-crisis levels after 2019. So there is reason for optimism, but it will be cautious optimism.

ABOUT STOCKS, BONDS, GOLD, OIL AND CURRENCY

Andrey Kochetkov,
analyst at Otkritie Broker

In the new year 2018, investors should be quite cautious due to unpredictable risks. We are talking about possible new restrictions from the United States, where internal political contradictions have worsened. In addition, in 2018, the Federal Reserve System (Fed) may continue to raise rates, which will increase the attractiveness of dollar instruments and put pressure on risky assets.

However, investments in government bonds are still relevant for Russian investors. federal loan(OFZ), which provide returns above inflation and bank deposits. New issues of “people's bonds” with quite attractive yields are also planned for the population. The relevance of these instruments will also increase, since the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is able to reduce the rate several more times.

Stock market

In addition, on stock market There are some very interesting stories left. If the Central Bank of the Russian Federation continues to ease its monetary policy, the dividend yield of a number of securities will become even more interesting. This also applies to shares of Gazprom, Aeroflot, metallurgists and representatives of the electric power industry. In addition, some shares remain poorly valued by the market. Recently, the telecommunications sector and the electricity sector have been under pressure. Next year we can expect increased interest in securities from representatives of these industries.

Oil

The oil market environment in 2018 will be quite stable, although temporary periods of decline cannot be ruled out. In particular, at the end of 2018, concerns will reappear related to the risk of the OPEC+ termination of the agreement to limit production. However, the market may become tight in 2018 as demand continues to rise and old fields are depleted. All this is happening against the backdrop of underfunding of the industry, which will create a shortage of production capacity in the future. So far, the oil forecast for 2018 falls within the range of $55-70.

Currency

The foreign exchange market in 2018 will be characterized by instability. The Fed is able to continue raising the rate, which will support the dollar, but already in the second half of the year, the euro may take the palm, as the ECB approaches the deadline for completing the quantitative stimulus program, and may also be faced with the need to abandon the negative rate. Against this background, the Russian Central Bank may also continue to reduce the rate, which will weaken the attractiveness of the ruble as part of the strategy “ Carry Trade" However, high oil prices coupled with economic growth must protect the national currency from severe weakening. In general, for 2018 we still expect the ruble to be in the range of 55-62 per dollar.

Gold

Gold, in the face of expectations of a Fed rate hike and a possible winding down of European Central Bank (ECB) incentives, does not promise much prospects. This instrument is most beneficial in conditions of high inflation or geopolitical tension in the world. Accordingly, inflation in the main economies is still quite weak. There are geopolitical problems in the world, but they are not yet critical. Accordingly, gold does not have any fantastic prospects. However, if a deep correction begins in Western markets and “fears” of a new crisis begin to grow, then gold will have a chance as an instrument of refuge. However, for now we expect a trading range of $1150-1300 for 2018.

ABOUT BITCOINS

Andrey Fischer,
Director of the Regional Center "Sibirsky"
Block "Corporate Investment Bank"
Alfa Bank in Novosibirsk

The state’s position on Bitcoin has not yet been determined, so I will share my personal opinion. Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies are growing very quickly. There is, of course, a very large speculative component here. But if you look at it, today it is the most secure currency. All currencies have long been no longer tied to the gold standard. It's just printed paper. And behind Bitcoin is mining - specific information that will be used in blockchain-type operations, where crypto protection must be used and where it can be physically used. It is possible that in the future civilization will switch to this currency. This may be one of the vectors for further development. There is such a possibility. It's like with mobile phone: in the seventies we could not imagine such an opportunity, but today everyone has it.

ABOUT MORTGAGE

Brus Alexey, expert of the Department of Expertise
and support of Real Estate Agency transactions
"IS IT TRUE"

Today, the question is often discussed: what should we expect from a mortgage in 2018 and is it worth taking or should we wait for now? Opinions on this issue are ambiguous, and one might even say opposite.

Some experts argue that mortgages are very profitable this year, which means you should take them. Of course, an important role is played by the fact that in 2017 the key percentage, on the basis of which all commercial banks set rates for their borrowers. For comparison, a couple of years ago the mortgage interest rate reached 13-14% per annum, but now key rate equal to 8.5, which allowed many banks to lower their interest rates for ordinary individuals.

Others believe that this is bondage, since a person will give part of his monthly income every month for 20-30 years. wages Bank. Here, as an argument, one can cite a mortgage in the USA, where the rate is only 1-3% per annum, or in Japan, where the rate is 1-2% per annum, while in Russia it starts from 9.5-11%. Of course, over a long period of action loan agreement, the overpayment on a mortgage can be many times the amount originally taken out.

However, with all the pros and cons mortgage lending, if a person has already faced a similar question, it means there is a need for improvement living conditions already there, but here it is own funds not yet available for purchasing housing. And in this case, purchasing real estate with a mortgage is a good option. Moreover, recently there has been a downward trend in mortgage rates.

If, for example, we compare with 2014-2015, when interest rate started at 13% and above, but now in 2017 it is more profitable to take out a mortgage. The rate averages from 9 to 11.5% per annum (some Banks even have rates of 7.4%, but there are many additional conditions). With a simple calculation, you can understand that with a loan of several million, a difference of 2-3% will have a significant impact on payments and the final overpayment. Therefore, if you are planning to buy real estate with a mortgage loan, then most likely there is no point in waiting for better times.

How to come to financial success without losses and mistakes? The financial horoscope for 2018 will help us with this. The ruler of the new year is the Yellow Dog, which is distinguished not only by its open and courageous disposition, but also by its boundless justice and hard work.

Favorable money position will help you feel more confident and decisive in business. Such a person will not only be able to balance income and expenses, but also increase the funds earned. The money horoscope for 2018 recommends that Aries beware of competitors and envious people, so as not to lose what has been accumulated over the years. Do not even think about participating in risky and adventurous ventures, share your plans only with close people, and also avoid communicating with selfish people.

You should not talk about your salary even among friends. Let all this remain your small, but pleasant, secret. In winter it is recommended to invest a small amount into action which will soon bring in decent money. This especially applies to Aries businessmen and brokers. In 2018, the Dog does not advise lending money. Please note that they will not be returned to you soon.

Taurus loves to save money for the future, and a difficult one at that. Why make such predictions? It is better to purchase what you need and invest money in promising projects. If you are asked for a loan, do not refuse - helping out your loved ones is a matter of honor.

The financial horoscope for 2018 recommends putting part of your money into a bank account. Let them “work” for you, bringing good dividends. In the middle of summer you will be able to open a personal business, if you have been striving for this for a long time. It is necessary to move forward professionally, learn and listen to the advice of experienced businessmen.

In 2018, a friend or old acquaintance will offer cooperation - you should not refuse . There is a chance to invest in real estate, expand your home and go on a trip. Just don’t rush into signing contracts and documents for new apartment. Be sure to double check everything carefully.

The financial horoscope for 2018 promises difficult period financially. You need to be extremely careful not to end up on the edge of the abyss and without means of subsistence. Before entering into transactions or investing money, be sure to consult with lawyers. Geminis should not take risks, be led by emotions and commit fraud. Even close people, take a close look; it is possible that among them there is a dishonest person, or a real swindler. In the year of the Dog, trust only those whom your intuition has chosen. Otherwise, monetary losses will be large-scale.

I am impulsive and unrestrained by nature, so I easily and quickly spend the amount I earned. Well, dreams of millions are commonplace for them. Do not try to hide from taxes or sign contracts with dubious companies. Only a competent approach to business and prudence will help Gemini maintain financial stability.

More than other signs, they strive for financial stability. They can’t even sleep peacefully if they don’t put some money in the box. The financial horoscope for 2018 recommends Cancer to be generous and not hold on to every penny. Especially if material aid friends or relatives will need it. Everything will come back a hundredfold, and people’s attitude towards you will become even better and more trusting.

The Dog will not leave Cancer without financial support in 2018, so there is no need to panic in advance and complain about fate. You will have enough money for a pleasant trip and for desired acquisitions. The only thing, what to watch out for– gambling, risk and adventure. Don’t even think about betting on money – you will lose. Good financial profit will come to Cancer who works on the Internet. At all, you definitely won't be left without money, do not worry.

The vain Leo loves to boast of his merits and financial wealth, but at the same time he does not spare money on entertainment, wild feasts and gifts. As a rule, he earns good money and prefers to waste money. Financial horoscope for 2018 advises be more economical so as not to end up in a crisis situation.

The passion for chic and luxury in 2018 needs to be tamed by any means, and also not to lure the opposite sex into your “network” with the help of expensive gifts. Your priority should be the spiritual world, not mercantile interests. The dog will slightly reason with the Lion’s “hunt” for finances, restaurants and relaxation in comfortable rooms. You have to work hard to get your penny. Most of the money will have to be spent on education, training and self-development.

The financial horoscope for 2018 promises Virgo ambiguous period in terms of money. Although there will be plenty of opportunities to earn money. You should not rely on Luck, but active and hard work should be the focus. Financial receipts are expected from those who will sign contracts and take on new projects. This especially applies to the spring and summer seasons. It is advisable to invest some money in repairing your apartment, car and household appliances.

In the fall of 2018, people can safely invest in travel. You can not only treat your health in a sanatorium, but also have a pleasant rest on the sea coast. You shouldn’t skimp on things that will improve your emotional and physical well-being. Don’t even think about lending money to people you don’t know well.

At the beginning of 2018, austerity must be observed. You need to clearly plan your budget, be practical and rational in your purchases. If you ignore the advice of the Yellow Dog, you will live in need and deprivation all year. Libras are spenders by nature, which can already negatively affect their financial situation.

The financial horoscope for 2018 does not recommend Libra to take risks and get carried away gambling. Moderation and restraint in money will help you save the required amount and invest part of the funds in a personal business. And already in the second half of 2018 you can buy something for the house, and also go on vacation.

They don’t know how to save money, so in the year of the Dog it will be difficult for them to maintain balance in financially. But, if you stop being extravagant, you can save as much as you planned. Many lucrative offers and interesting projects are expected, as the financial horoscope for 2018 promises. Many will find another job that will help strengthen their financial situation before the end of December. Scorpio there is a chance not only to increase capital, but also to get rich through your business. Just for cooperation, find like-minded people and those who support you in everything.

The Dog recommends getting a loan from a bank if you need money to open a business or commercial investment. Although, help can also come from close relatives or friends. In 2018 f It's better to spend your money on travel, and not on newfangled things. It is advisable to pay off debts and not rely on influential uncles. Rely only on your own strength and get a good profit.

There is so much work expected in the Year of the Dog that it will be difficult to keep up with it. The financial horoscope for 2018 recommends remembering to rest so as not to overstrain yourself and be left without finances. Don’t skimp on going to a sanatorium or resort—they don’t skimp on your health.

Sagittarius will have to urgently pay off creditors and tax services. Sign the documents very carefully, otherwise you will have to redo everything quickly. In 2018 you have large fines are possible utility debts and financial problems. you need to be more purposeful, then everything will work out well.

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Financial stability awaits in 2018 if he does not follow his emotions. You can go on vacation to the sea, buy a car and change housing. All accumulated funds will be used. But you shouldn’t hold on to them if the acquisitions are truly useful. Capricorn is rational and economical by nature, which will help him increase his income in the first half of the year. The main thing is to learn one simple truth - money loves to be spent. It is then that they multiply and begin to please their owner.

The financial horoscope for 2018 predicts family impressive expenses related to home, everyday life and children. It is possible that a decent amount of money will be spent on the child’s education. There is no need to regret anything, because everything spent will return a hundredfold by the end of the Year of the Dog.

If in the year of the Dog you live beyond your means, then financial collapse will not be far away. Your dire financial situation can affect everything - your mood, work and personal life. Therefore, it is better to distribute your budget at the very beginning of the year. Before helping your relatives financially, think a hundred times. After all, you may also need money, and at the most inopportune moment. Don’t even think about spoiling your children with money, because this approach is unlikely to help you find a common language with your child.

Financial horoscope for 2018 recommends find a part-time job. This can be any field of activity, but it is interesting and promising. For example, you can write articles on the Internet. The main thing is to protect yourself from excitement, risk and adventurous ventures. They can drive you into debt.

A good year is expected in 2018 Pisces, who themselves will be determined to strengthen their financial situation. Don't give up, even if something doesn't work out the first time. You have to spend a lot of effort, time and energy, but it's worth it. Even if the job you have chosen for yourself turns out to be not very profitable, then do it well. A lot will depend on the little things and the right approach to business.

Financial horoscope for 2018 predicts profitable investment. Pisces are capable of grandiose achievements, as well as rapid enrichment. You shouldn’t give up on big projects that will bring you money with interest. In mid-2018, Pisces will be tempted to take out a loan, which is extremely undesirable; repaying it will be too problematic.

The next year promises to be difficult for Russia. Given the general inaction of the authorities against the backdrop of a worsening recession in the national economy and the refusal of the country's top leadership to take decisive action, we can expect a continued deterioration in the financial and economic condition of the state. In addition, the coming year will have to determine the vector of subsequent development for the coming years. The starting point will be the presidential elections.

Already at the beginning of 2017, experts made preliminary forecasts for the development of the Russian economy in 2018. Thus, quite diverse information was provided by specialists from financial analytical, consulting, investment and insurance companies. Despite significant differences in the options presented by analysts, they have something in common - the constant linking of the economic state to the vector of external and domestic policy. Also, the economic forecast of foreign experts rating agencies and financial companies for Russia for the next 2018 is “tailored” to probable political events, military actions and the resolution of territorial disputes.

Unjustified optimism is unnecessary

For financiers who closely monitor the state of the national economies of European countries and the United States, the position of the current government looks incomprehensible and quite risky. It officially announces the end of the financial crisis and the most difficult time for households and businesses. All this is happening against the background of rather modest indicators of the Russian economy at the end of 2016 and at the beginning of 2017. For example, in the first quarter of this year, the country's GDP is characterized by a decline. But this year it was only 1.2%, not 3.7% in the same quarter last year. At the same time, economists from the Profile magazine remind readers that slowing the decline is not equivalent to the beginning of growth. At the same time, the recession in the economy continues, which was reflected in the April statistics. In particular, Vnesheconombank analysts say that the April results are negative.

Experts also note the generally unsatisfactory dynamics of GDP indicator over the past 4 years (Fig. 1).

Russia's annual GDP growth rate

The relative multidirectional movement of indicators characterizing the country’s economy creates a false impression that the situation is leveling out and the crisis is being overcome. However, once you take a closer look at the latest data, this is the picture that emerges. On the one hand, there is a growth in the raw materials export sector, which is estimated at an average of one and a half percent. The defense industry is also growing, sometimes by 15%, sometimes by 13% per year. And even forgotten by everyone Agriculture has a stable growth rate of 3% per year.

And with all this, what can we expect from a country in which there has been a steady decline in household incomes for 16 months in a row? This quite naturally leads to the decline of retail trade, the service sector, the construction market, the automotive industry, tourism and so on. The steady decline in investment in the economy also does not seem to be a positive factor allowing us to talk about economic recovery. Experts' forecast regarding the possibility of alignment investment market also remains disappointing against the backdrop of continued strained relations with the West and Europe’s aggressive sanctions policy.

Forecast of basic indicators for the Russian Economy according to http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/forecast

Although analysts' opinions differ as to when the reported recovery will begin in Russia official sources, but a physical presence that is impossible to find in financial terms, but one can count on the fact that in 2018 it will become clear at least what course the state will take. The normal state of the economy, according to all existing theories, is growth and expansion. In general, the reversal from a fall of 0.8% to an increase of 0.5% is small; a developed economy can overcome it within a period equal to a financial year.

Forecasts for Russia depend not so much on the capabilities of its production and service sectors, but on export prices for resources. In particular, if the price of oil rises to $60 this year alone, then our country has very real prospects of starting a new trend, turning the situation around and setting the rails economic development for growth. However, every single expert predicts that even if prices rise to at least $57 per barrel, this trend will not be long-term and will not allow our economy to recover. There are already examples of such market behavior and their consequences were not positive for Russia (Fig. 2).

Don't try to convert your savings into foreign currency in 2018. The presence of problems in the country's economy suggests unpredictable volatility currency pairs and the financial instruments market as a whole. It is better to invest in so-called “long-term” money with a payback of 2-3 years.

There is no certainty, however, that the responsible persons in the Ministry and the Government do not expect such “gifts” from the market and do not plan to formulate the budget for 2018 based on such unjustifiably positive calculations.

Rice. 2. Price dynamics are not oil

Possible development paths

Additional emission of money: last hope or chance for “recovery”

Due to the lack of prospects for positive changes in the Russian economy, a debate is flaring up among specialists with renewed vigor about the possibility of using additional emission of money supply as a support instrument. While analysts are only pondering how high the risks of launching a printing press are and awaiting the consequences, the country's leadership has long ago decided that printing money is possible. What is it used for?

• military spending;
• fulfillment of obligations to employees in the public sector of the economy;
• compliance with obligations in social policy states;
• meeting the need for financing targeted programs.

An experiment of this kind has already been carried out, in particular, the largest fact in launching the money supply into the economy was the purchase of the Central Bank from the Ministry of Finance foreign currency. At the same time, it is planned that central bank over a fairly short period of the next year, it can thus introduce more than one and a half trillion rubles into the economy, including through the bank rescue program. What awaits Russia in 2018, if an additional mass of money has already been printed in the amount of 358 billion rubles. This money will subsequently be issued to all depositors whose banks the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has revoked their license to operate.

With such a financing policy, one can expect that the Central Bank will simply determine the permissible emission volume for 2018 for Russia. However, such an approach will not only slow down current development, but will also become a problem for the new (if there is a new) leadership of the country, which will begin to fulfill its duties in the first half of 2018.

Against the optimistic economic forecast for Russia for 2018, there is still one more significant limiting factor - the refusal of the current government to look into the future. No meaningful decisions regarding the development of the system puts the entire future of the state at great risk.

The economic situation tends to fix existing trends that want and support the system in working order, but do not give it the opportunity to get ahead.

Thus, most forecasters expect that the country’s economic development scenario in 2018 will be more negative than positive, regardless of what official positions Ministry of Finance and the Head of Government.