RIA Rating - 2 Mar. According to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the total amount of public debt of all constituent entities of the Russian Federation increased by 1.5% in 2016 and amounted to 2.353 trillion rubles as of January 1, 2017. This is the smallest increase in public debt over the past few years. For comparison, in 2015 the public debt of the regions of the Russian Federation increased by 11%, in 2014 - by 20%, in 2013 - by 28.6%. The slowdown in the growth rate of regional borrowings can be explained by the more conservative approach of the regional authorities to increasing the debt burden on the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, which is justified in the context of the continued unstable economic situation. In addition, according to experts of the Rating Agency "RIA Rating" of the media group MIA "Russia Today", a certain impact on overall result had a reduction of 78.6 billion rubles in Moscow's public debt, mainly due to the repayment of external debt. A year ago, Moscow was one of the leaders in terms of the absolute value of public debt among all Russian regions. At the beginning of 2017, the volume of the state debt of the capital amounted to 61.9 billion rubles.

The volume of municipal public debt at the end of 2016 increased by 6.7% and amounted to 364.3 billion rubles. The total amount of public debt of all constituent entities of the Russian Federation and the debt of municipalities that are part of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, as of January 1, 2017, amounted to 2.72 trillion rubles, which is 2.2% more than a year earlier.

A moderate build-up of public debt took place against the backdrop of growth in budget revenues of the subjects of the Russian Federation. At the end of 2016, the total volume of tax and non-tax revenues of all subjects of the Russian Federation increased by 9.6%, while the reduction was recorded only in seven regions. Against this background, the volume of total expenditures of the budgets of all subjects of the Russian Federation increased by 5.6%.

More public loans

In the structure of regional public debt, an increasing share falls on budget loans. In 2016, the regions of the Russian Federation actively replaced commercial debt with cheap budget loans. Due to this, the share of budget loans in the total public debt as of January 1, 2017 amounted to 42.1%, and the share of commercial loans accounted for 34.9%. At the end of 2015, the ratio was diametrically opposite. The activation of the debt market led to an increase in regional borrowings, which could not but affect the growth in the share of government securities in the debt structure from 18.7% at the end of 2015 to 19.4% at the end of 2016. The share of state guarantees decreased from 4.4% to 3.8% in 2016. Information on the structure of the state debt of the regions is given in the table >>

In 14 regions, debt to commercial banks completely missing. With the exception of Moscow, the Tyumen region and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Yugra, the main components of public debt in these regions are budget loans. Regions such as Moscow, Primorsky Krai and Kamchatka Krai paid off their commercial debts in full over the past year. At the same time, in a number of regions, there is a significant bias in the debt structure towards commercial loans, which may cause concern, especially if the region's position in the debt load rating is close to the bottom ten.

To determine the level of debt burden, experts from the RIA Rating Rating Agency of the Rossiya Segodnya media group compiled a rating of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in terms of the level of debt burden, which reflects the distribution of regional debts and their dynamics in 2016. The rating used data from the Federal Treasury and the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation on debt obligations and income regional budgets. As a measure of the debt burden in the rating, the ratio of the state debt of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation as of January 1, 2017 to the tax and non-tax revenues of the regional budget (own revenues) for 2016 was used.

The debt burden on the budgets of the regions of the Russian Federation decreased

The overall level of the debt burden of the regions decreased over the past year. The ratio of the total public debt of all regions as of January 1, 2017 to the total volume of tax and non-tax revenues for 2016 amounted to 33.8%, which is 2.7 percentage points lower than a year earlier. But at the same time, the range of values ​​in the regional context remains quite wide. The level of debt burden varied from 0% in the Sakhalin Region and Sevastopol to 176% in the Republic of Mordovia. Compared to last year's results, the top and bottom regions have not changed.

The Republic of Mordovia has been closing the rating in terms of the debt load of the regions of the Russian Federation for several years now, but it is worth noting that positive changes are also observed here. At the end of 2016, the debt burden decreased by 6.5 percentage points, which was due to a 15.7% increase in tax and non-tax revenues in the region. Himself state debt Republic of Mordovia grew by 11.6% due to budget loans and a bonded loan of 5 billion rubles, placed in September 2016.

The number of regions whose public debt exceeds their own revenues has decreased

In addition to the Republic of Mordovia, in seven other Russian regions, the volume of public debt exceeds their own budget revenues, but, compared to 2015, their number has almost halved. As of January 1, 2016, there were 14 such regions. In addition, there are positive trends in this part of the rating: in five out of eight regions, the debt burden decreased over the past year, and in all cases this was due to the outstripping growth of tax and non-tax revenues compared to an increase in public debt.

Judging by the debt structure, not all of the regions in the last group of regions took advantage of the opportunity to replace more expensive commercial loans for lending through the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. If in the structure of the debt of the Smolensk region and the Republic of Karelia budget loans account for more than half, and their share in 2016 increased to 58.8% and 51.7%, respectively, then in a number of regions there are structural distortions towards commercial loans. Thus, in the Astrakhan region, the share of commercial loans is 50.5%, in the Kostroma region - 52.6%, in the Jewish Autonomous Region - 61%, the Republic of Mari El - 67.7%. In addition, in the Republic of Khakassia, almost half of the state debt (49.8%) falls on bonded loans and another 37.3% on commercial loans. The debt burden in Khakassia in 2016 increased by 28.7 percentage points and amounted to 145.5%. If the debt policy in the republic does not undergo any drastic changes, then in the near future the Republic of Khakassia may displace the Republic of Mordovia from the position of the region that closes the rating.

As of January 1, 2017, in 54 regions of the Russian Federation, the public debt exceeded 50% of the volume of tax and non-tax budget revenues, of which in 36 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the public debt exceeds 70% of their own revenues. Compared to the previous year, the number of regions in this group has slightly decreased - as of January 1, 2016, in 57 regions of the Russian Federation, the public debt exceeded 50% of tax and non-tax budget revenues, of which the ratio of public debt to tax and non-tax revenues was more than 70% in 44 regions.

New regions appeared in the group of leaders

The low level of debt burden is still observed in nine Russian regions, but their composition has changed slightly compared to last year. Less than 10% of the volume of tax and non-tax budget revenues is the public debt in the Tyumen region, St. Petersburg, Moscow, Altai Territory and Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Yugra. The places that left the leading group of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the Republic of Crimea were occupied by the Leningrad Region and Primorsky Territory. There is no public debt in the Sakhalin Oblast and Sevastopol. Five regions in the group managed to reduce their debt burden. In the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Yugra and the Tyumen region, the debt burden increased.

Debt burden decreased in most regions of the Russian Federation

In 2016, the level of debt burden decreased in 63 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Positive trends are mainly associated with an increase in tax and non-tax revenues, but in some regions there is also a decrease in public debt. The leader in terms of positive dynamics was the Republic of Ingushetia, whose debt burden decreased by 36.8 percentage points both due to a decrease in public debt by 26% and an increase in own income by 9.4%. In addition, the debt burden decreased by more than 20 percentage points in the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania, in the Vologda Oblast, in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug and in the Republic of Altai. In thirteen Russian regions, the debt burden decreased by 10-20%.

In 20 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the level of debt burden increased, of which in six - by more than 10%. The Republic of Khakassia once again showed the most significant growth, increasing its debt burden by 28.7 percentage points. In addition to it, in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the debt burden increased by 25.2 percentage points and in the Astrakhan Region - by 24.1 percentage points.

The volume of public debt increased in 49 regions of the Russian Federation

According to experts of the RIA Rating agency, in 2016 the absolute volume of public debt increased in 49 regions, remained unchanged in the Vladimir Region, and decreased in 33 regions. In Sevastopol and the Sakhalin region, there is still no public debt.

The leader in positive dynamics was Moscow, whose public debt, including due to the full repayment of commercial loans, decreased by 56%. In addition, the volume of public debt in the Leningrad Region and Kamchatka Territory decreased by more than 30%. The Republic of Crimea, where until recently there was almost no public debt, in 2016 increased the volume of public debt by 13 times. In the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the volume of public debt increased by 3 times, and in the Tyumen region - by 83%. But the ratio of public debt to the volume of tax and non-tax revenues in these regions is far from risky levels.

The Krasnodar Territory is still the leader in terms of the absolute value of public debt, and over the past 2016 its volume increased by 3.3%, reaching 150 billion rubles. But due to the growth of tax and non-tax revenues by 15.4%, the level of the region's debt burden decreased by 10.3 percentage points, and at the end of 2016 amounted to 88.2%. In three more regions - the Republic of Tatarstan, the Krasnoyarsk Territory and the Moscow Region - the amount of public debt exceeds 90 billion rubles, but the situation with the debt burden on the budgets of the regions remains at an acceptable level.

In 2017, the growth rate of public debt will be low

Recently, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation has been increasingly calling for the regions to more actively use bonded loans, the servicing of which will cost the regions cheaper than loans from commercial banks, and it also says that budget loans are rather a temporary, anti-crisis measure that cannot exist on a permanent basis. basis. As confirmation of this, in the Federal budget for 2017, only 200 billion rubles are reserved for budget lending against 338 billion rubles issued in 2016, and further reductions can be expected. In addition, budget loans were issued for a period of 3 years, and this year there is a deadline for repaying those loans that were received by the regions in 2014 in the amount of 230 billion rubles. Even taking into account the fact that the amount of subsidies intended in 2017 to equalize regional budgets has been increased by 100 billion rubles, there will not be enough money from the Ministry of Finance for everyone. At the expense of the budget reserve, at best, they refinance the current debt to the RF Ministry of Finance. Probably due to stabilization financial markets, we can expect a surge in the activity of the regions in the debt market and an increase in the share of government securities in the regional debt structure. Speaking about the absolute amount of debt, we can assume that in the context of the expected weak economic growth the conservative policy of the regional authorities regarding borrowing will continue, and the overall situation with regional debts will continue to improve.

According to the results of 2017, the experts of the RIA Rating Agency expect an increase in the volume of public debt by 5-7%, and tax and non-tax revenues of regional budgets within 10%. In this case, the debt burden will be 32-33%, and compared to the result of 2016, it will not change significantly.

RIA Rating is a universal rating agency of the media group MIA "Russia Today" specializing in assessing the socio-economic situation of the regions of the Russian Federation, the economic condition of companies, banks, economic sectors, countries. The main activities of the agency are: creation of ratings for the regions of the Russian Federation, banks, enterprises, municipalities, insurance companies, securities, and other economic entities; comprehensive economic research in the financial, corporate and public sectors.

As of December 1, 2016, the public debt of the Russian regions decreased by 110.2 billion rubles, or 4.8%, compared to the beginning of the year. This was reported to Izvestia in the Accounts Chamber. At the same time, according to the joint venture, last month outgoing year, this figure may increase slightly, but the debt of the subjects will be less than a year ago.

One of the reasons is the ongoing process of replacing commercial loans with budget ones. However, the region's debt situation remains serious, President Vladimir Putin said during a press conference last Friday. Moreover, the debt is heterogeneous - for example, five subjects violate the Budget Code, the head of state focused his attention and promised that they would be assisted. But it will rather be "first aid" - the problem must be solved by changing the interaction between the Ministry of Finance and subjects with high debts.

The state helped

As Vladimir Putin noted at a press conference, the debt of the regions is a serious issue. Indeed, the state debt of the subjects was steadily approaching 2.5 trillion rubles at the beginning of this year. However, as Izvestia was told in the Accounts Chamber, as of December 1, 2016, the debt of the regions decreased by 110.2 billion rubles and amounted to 2.208 trillion rubles, which is almost 5% less than in January of the outgoing year. At the same time, however, an increase in the volume of debt obligations in January-November is observed in 34 regions.

The joint venture also notes the ongoing process of changing the structure of the state debt of the subjects. So, this year, the state again became their main creditor due to the replacement of commercial loans with budget loans at a symbolic one percent. 340 billion rubles were allocated for these purposes in the outgoing year. That is why the volume of debt on budget loans increased compared to the beginning of the year by 185.2 billion rubles, or 22.9%, and amounted to 993.9 billion rubles (a share of more than 45%). Growth of debt to the budget occurred in 56 regions.

At the same time, the share of commercial loans decreased, which in the structure of public debt amounted to 30.8% as of December 1. Debts to credit institutions decreased since the beginning of the year by 284.4 billion rubles (or 29.5%) and amounted to 681 billion rubles. However, the Accounts Chamber notes, “in a number of regions, the practice of borrowing does not have the proper consistency and predictability, which leads to facts of irrational attraction bank loans. Thus, in 17 regions there is an increase in debt on commercial loans.

According to the Accounts Chamber, as of January 1, 2017, that is, in December, the public debt of the regions will increase slightly, but it will probably be less compared to the beginning of 2016.

As the main reason for the growth of the state debt of the regions in the joint venture, the problem of imbalance in the budgets of the subjects is called. Thus, the incomes of most of them do not cover the costs of previously accepted spending obligations, which leads to an increase in the number of regions that form their budgets with a deficit and increase their debt obligations.

The Accounts Chamber provides the following data to support this statement: as of December 20, 2016, the execution of consolidated budget revenues amounted to 9.247 trillion rubles, or 97.1% of the envisaged volumes. Execution of expenses for elapsed period amounted to 8975.2 billion rubles, or 85.4% of the envisaged volume.

As indicated in the joint venture, in January-November 2016, the share of debt on budget loans increased by 10.1 percentage points and this growth had a positive impact on the quality of the total debt portfolio of entities, reduced the burden of servicing debt obligations, but did not solve the problem of ensuring the balance of regional budgets .

“The practice of using budget loans as sources of covering the current deficit and replacing commercial loans does not eliminate the emerging imbalance between the volumes of actual income and accepted budget commitments and does not provide stabilization of the situation,” the Accounts Chamber notes.

Subject to subject strife

According to the updated credit ratings of the National Rating Agency (NRA) from 83 regions (the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol were not assigned ratings due to the lack of the necessary amount of statistical information), the ratings of 33 entities were downgraded, 28 were upgraded and another 22 were confirmed.

The debt burden indicator is calculated as the ratio of the region's public debt as of October 1, 2016 to the regional budget's own revenues (tax and non-tax) for the past year (October 2015 - September 2016). In the Budget Code, the limit value of this indicator is fixed at the level of 100%, that is, the volume of the state debt of the region should not exceed the total annual volume of its own budget revenues. For highly subsidized regions (these are regions where the share of subsidies for at least two of the last three years is more than 40% of their own budget revenues), the limit value of this indicator is 50%, the analyst explained.

He noted that a "negative" forecast was assigned to regions that have a combination of three conditions: public debt exceeds 100% of their own revenues, this debt increases during nine months of 2016, and there are violations of budget legislation and (or) the terms of agreements on the provision of budget loans. These regions included the Republics of Mordovia, Khakassia, Mari El, Zabaykalsky Krai, as well as Smolensk, Pskov and Kirov regions. As emphasized by the agency, the listed regions may lose access to new budgetary and commercial borrowings.

The Ministry of Finance can indeed cut off access to inexpensive refinancing for violators of the Budget Code. However, according to Alexander Pakhalov, the state will support the regional authorities in terms of servicing their public debt, as well as provide assistance in exchange for stimulating the economy.

Indeed, at a press conference, Vladimir Putin noted that only five regions violated this principle (debt-to-income ratio of 50% - Izvestia) and they need special support, and they also require special attention. He recalled that this year more than 300 billion rubles were allocated to “refinance these regions, collect their debts from commercial banks and refinance them for government loans, loans from the Ministry of Finance, which are issued for long term at one percent, at a symbolic percentage per annum. This work will be continued further.

Next year, we also allocate the necessary resources for these purposes,” the president promised.

It is known that in 2017 the government planned 200 billion rubles for this assistance.

Targeted approach

In addition, as noted in the Accounts Chamber, in 2017, in order to improve the situation with the balance of regional budgets, subsidies are provided to equalize the budgetary provision of the regions in the amount of 615 billion rubles (an increase of 100 billion rubles compared to 2016). In addition, a new principle has been established for the provision of subsidies on the basis of agreements concluded with the Ministry of Finance of Russia on the conditions for their provision.

The main intrigue is what will be the incentives for the governors when signing these agreements, says a leading NRA analyst.

“When providing budget loans in 2017 and concluding relevant agreements, it is advisable to consider the possibility of using a differentiated approach, given the current situation with the debt burden and their real ability to fulfill the terms of the agreements,” the Accounts Chamber believes.

And only after the stabilization of the situation, it is possible to develop approaches to restructuring or installment of debts of subjects on previously issued budget loans with an extension of the terms of their repayment, providing for a phased uniform repayment of the restructured debt while maintaining the amount of payment for the use of budget loans.

Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief analyst of FG BCS, also believes that at this stage the solution to the problem largely depends on government assistance. In his opinion, if governors now begin to actively cut civil servants to reduce costs, this will lead to an increase in unemployment.

Obviously, the problem with these regions cannot be solved quickly in principle, because everything depends not only on production. It is difficult for them to be attractive for investment or tourism due to certain reasons - remoteness, unfavorable climate or ecology, - the analyst believes.

Therefore, he emphasizes, the Ministry of Finance can take a tough stance, reduce funding, but this will not solve the problems of the region.

Andrey Piskunov, Senior Director, Head of the ACRA Sovereign and Regional Ratings Group, believes that in the current economic situation, standardized measures for all subjects will be ineffective. Targeted approaches to solving the problems of each specific region are required.

One of the promising solutions to the problem of regional debts could be an agreement on the partial refinancing of the region's existing obligations under budget loans with a rigid fixing of the share of regional debt that is obligatory to be repaid at the expense of the region's own funds. This will stimulate the regional authorities to find sources of debt repayment and introduce the practice of a responsible attitude to their debts and debt policy, - summed up Andrey Piskunov.

The number of Russian regions with a high level of debt burden has decreased to five, follows from the NRA report. Mordovia set a record for the amount of debt in Russia

Photo: Alexei Filippov / RIA Novosti

The number of Russian regions that are in the so-called red zone (the excess of public debt over the regional budget's own revenues) has decreased from eight to five over the year, according to a study by the National Rating Agency (available to RBC). At the end of 2017, this list of the most indebted regions includes Mordovia, Khakassia, Kostroma Region, Karelia and Kabardino-Balkaria.

Mordovia retains the status of the largest debtor. Per last year The debt problem of the region has not only not come close to being solved, but has become more complicated, the NRA study notes. If at the end of 2016 the debt of the republic was 176% of the tax and non-tax revenues of the regional budget, then on January 1, 2018 it exceeded 200%, which is an absolute record for the regions of Russia.

In two other problem regions with a high debt burden - the Kostroma region (111.07%) and Khakassia (122.55%) - for the first time in recent history. This means that due to the large volume of accumulated debts, they will be able to spend money only under the control of the Federal Treasury. “In fact, this means the introduction of external management of the regional budget and public debt. In the coming year, this practice can be extended to other regions with high public debt,” the NRA notes.

The plans of the Ministry of Finance to use a special tool for regions whose debt will exceed the parameters laid down became known at the end of last year. Speaking in December in the State Duma, the regions whose total debt obligations on granted budget loans since the beginning of the year amounted to more than 80% of their own budget revenues will be transferred to treasury support.

Also, on January 1, a program was launched to restructure budgetary loans to the regions. It will last seven years, during this period 55 billion rubles from the budget. In the first two years, the regions will need to pay only 5% of their debt each year, which, according to the president, will allow the subjects to “rescue” 438 billion rubles.

At the same time, in 2017, the number of regions in the "green zone" (government debt in the amount of less than 10% of the regional budget's own revenues) increased from nine to eleven. Now they include the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, the Vladimir Region, the Republic of Crimea, St. Petersburg, the Primorsky Territory, the Leningrad Region, Altai region, Moscow, Tyumen region, as well as Sevastopol and the Sakhalin region (in the last two regions there is no state debt at all).

Regions refuse to help banks

The total volume of public debt of the regions of Russia last year slightly decreased (by 1.6%) and amounted to 2.315 trillion rubles, follows from the data of the Ministry of Finance. In the structure of the total public debt of the regions, as of January 1, 2018, budget loans accounted for 43.64% of the total. A year earlier, this figure was 42.09%, follows from the NRA study.

“The federal center continues the policy of providing regions with cheap budget loans, however, the volume of such financing is gradually decreasing and mainly weak regions can apply for it, while strong ones have to look for alternative sources of debt financing,” the agency writes.

As for bank loans (almost 667 billion rubles as of January 1), their share in the structure of the state debt of the regions continues to decline (from 34.36% to 28.81% in 2017). The share of government debt securities, on the contrary, is growing (from 19.44 to 23.69%). According to the authors of the study, this trend indicates that for the regions a more attractive option is the issuance of bonds, rather than obtaining bank loans.

"Debt securities regions of Russia are in demand among investors (most of the bonds of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are traded above par), and the current market conditions make their placement more profitable compared to attracting loans from commercial banks,” the report says.

At the end of 2017, 52 entities reduced their public debt, follows from the operational report of the Accounts Chamber on budget execution. The largest reduction in public debt was noted in Chelyabinsk region and Moscow - by 1.8 times, Leningrad region - by 1.6 times, Primorye - by 29.8%, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug - by 25%.

The growth of public debt, according to the Accounts Chamber, was recorded in 31 subjects. Among the "distinguished" regions, auditors name St. Petersburg - by 2.5 times, Kamchatka Territory - by 37.9%, Mordovia - by 24.3%, the Republic of Adygea - by 21.7%, Tula region— by 18.7%.

At the same time, as noted by the department, the regions remain dependent on financial assistance from federal budget. “Revenues of eight subjects as of January 1, 2018 were more than 60% formed at the expense of gratuitous receipts from other budgets budget system RF," the report says. We are talking about Ingushetia, Chechnya, Tyva, Dagestan, the Altai Republic, Crimea, Karachay-Cherkessia and the Kaliningrad region.

Rating of Russian regions by debts. The amount of debt of the subjects of the federation in Russia is still relatively small, but at the beginning of this year already a third of the regions fall into the zone of debt instability, and a tenth of them violate the debt standards established by law.

The debt of the subjects of the Federation in Russia as of January 1, 2017 amounted to 2.35 trillion rubles. Debt of municipalities - 0.36 trillion. It's not much for a big one. Russian economy: in the amount of about 3.2% of the country's GDP. For comparison: the federal public debt of the Russian Federation at the beginning of 2017 was four times larger - about 10.4 trillion rubles. (internal and external).

But when compared with the regions' own incomes, the burden of debt on the regions seems significant - it is about a third of their own incomes. This is significant, though not critical.

However, 42% of this debt is non-marketable debt of the regions to the Russian Federation (the interest rate on it is 0.1% per year, compared with commercial rates - above 10%). It is clear that with such percentages, the share of debt service expenses in the average budgets of the subjects is very small (2.3% on average as of January 1, 2016).

The debt of the regions has been growing noticeably over the past 10 years. During the previous crisis (2008-2009), it jumped from 15% to the regions' own revenues to 25%. The current one increased it to 32.8% in 2016.

In recent years, a policy of gradual replacement of commercial loans with budget ones has been pursued. The share of commercial loans in the state debt of subjects decreased from 66% in 2013 to 54% in 2016. But it is obvious that this substitution is carried out by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation reluctantly and slowly, completely unwilling to take on the debts of the regions. Although sometimes it seems preferable to the Ministry of Finance than to provide regions with additional non-repayable subsidies. In addition, there are purely political benefits of such a strategy - the regions become more dependent on the government and the Kremlin, which is important in the pre-election period.

The financial department emphasizes in every possible way that the process of replacing commercial loans with budget ones is a temporary anti-crisis measure. In 2016, for the first 11 months, the Ministry of Finance provided the regions with intergovernmental loans for 305 billion rubles. (including repayment - 185 billion rubles). This is almost 8% of the debt of the regions - in general, a lot. For 2017-2018, the budget law plans to provide them in the amount of 200 billion rubles. (this amount was “knocked out” during the auction in the Federation Council, initially half the figures were supposed), and in 2019 - 50 billion rubles. The replacement process is slowing down.

The share of securities in the debt of the regions has remained unchanged for the last two years - 19% (2013 - 26%). The leadership of the constituent entities of the Federation was clearly unable to fulfill Vladimir Putin's recommendation that it would be preferable to use bond mechanisms to raise funds over bank loans. At the beginning of 2017, 44 regions (more than half) had no debt in securities. According to the Ministry of Finance, in 2016, 74 constituent entities of the Federation planned to attract bank loans, and only 27 regions planned to issue bonds (in fact, 22 regions carried it out). At the same time, the main instrument for placing regional bonds on the market is not auctions, but “book building” (the formation of a book of orders, in fact, an auction on the contrary, with a decrease in the rate). In the practice of issuing Russian bonds on domestic market used almost only auction. This demonstrates a clear lack of demand for regional bonds.

"Beyond the Line"

8 regions - almost every tenth - have already turned out to be penalized, violating the Budget Code of the Russian Federation. It prohibits regions from borrowing above the level of their own income (for highly subsidized regions - 50% of their own income). The list of these 8 regions is given on the map).

However, the restrictions of the Budget Code are very “soft” in practice. Until January 1, 2018, the amount of budget debt is not taken into account in maximum size the state debt of the subject, as well as the amount of budget loans attracted in the current year. With this in mind, only one region out of 8 is in the "penalty box" - the Republic of Khakassia with its large share of commercial loans. And the leader - Mordovia - descends from sky-high 176% to an acceptable 77%. And there are no penalties for violating the limits of public debt of subjects established by the Code. However, the Ministry of Finance, of course, has quite enough leverage to "call to order" especially outstanding ones.

But there is no great desire to use them. For example, the financial department could not or did not want to oppose Mordovia's powerful borrowing program: over the past 3 years, it has increased its debt by more than 1.5 times, including through budget loans. No one in the country appears to be particularly concerned about the situation, including Mordovia itself. What does she have to worry about? Despite the record debt, the cost of servicing it in the 2017 budget is a modest 2.4% - almost at the level of the average regional in Russia.

The only concern is the international rating agency Fitch, which in February 2016 assigned, and in August confirmed the long-term rating of Mordovia at B +, the outlook is stable. According to his classification, this is a high-risk speculative rating: this moment financial obligations performed, but the ability to continue payments is vulnerable in the event of a deterioration in the business environment or economic conditions". For comparison: Russia's rating, according to Fitch, is BBB- (degree of reliability below average).

Fitch commented on its decision on Mordovia in August: “The republic's volatile operating performance and high direct risk stemming from significant capital expenditures, mitigated by long-term loans from the federal budget at low interest rate". And he threatened the republic with a rating downgrade if the "direct risk" (the ratio of debt to own income) exceeds 140%. As you can see, it exceeded, and significantly. So far, Fitch has not reacted to this in any way.

The Republic of Khakassia, mentioned above, which even under the current soft requirements of the Budget Code, with a high commercial debt, is assessed more favorably by the same Fitch: its rating is higher, BB-, the outlook is stable. “Khakassia's acceptable operating balance, which nevertheless remains insufficient to cover increased interest payments due to the high direct risk accumulated as a result of a significant budget deficit,” the agency's analysts write.

What about the Ministry of Finance? In the recently published Debt Policy Guidelines, he admits violations in 8 regions and that several more regions will cross the line in 2017. But the average level of the debt burden of the subjects is assessed as "acceptable", since it "does not carry significant risks of a debt crisis."

"Red Zone"

The Budget Code of the Russian Federation defines two criteria for the debt sustainability of entities:

- debt to own income,

– debt service costs to total budget expenditures*.

According to the second criterion, the regions are doing well - due to the high share of intergovernmental loans in debt with almost zero percent. But there are obvious problems with the first criterion.

The Ministry of Finance considers regions with "low debt sustainability" to have a debt-to-revenue ratio of over 85% (for highly subsidized entities - over 45%). The list includes 24 regions according to the first criterion (8 “beyond the line” and 16 “at the line”). According to the second criterion, 3-4 dozen regions** can fit it, of which no more than a dozen have a debt-to-income ratio below 45%.

Thus, more than a third of Russian regions fall into the “low debt sustainability” column, and a tenth of them are frankly below the debt risk line.

The list of regions of the "red zone" itself looks very diverse: there are both national republics and Central Russian regions. At the head of the regions are (they stood during the recruitment of debt) both pro-government "appointees" and former communists or completely liberal governors. But who is practically absent there are neither donor regions (they earn enough to borrow little), nor subsidized regions (they have too little of their own income to borrow a lot).

"Norm"

2 regions do not have public debt at all - these are the "donor" Sakhalin region, which has been earning well for the last decade on PSA oil projects, and the "subsidized" city of Sevastopol, which has more federal budget revenues than its own revenues, and, apparently, did not manage to collect for the last 3 years of loans. But the Republic of Crimea managed to do it: its debt is 5.4 billion rubles. (17.5% of own income).

9 regions of the country have a public debt below 10% of their own income - mostly rich subjects with high tax revenue. Strange in this list is the Altai Territory with a subsidy of 66%, it is clearly lagging behind other regions with its borrowings. But, according to the three-year budget adopted by him, the region is beginning to actively borrow and will leave this group already this year (that is, it will accumulate debt).

Here, in the "norm", there are almost all the "donor" regions **** - Moscow, St. Petersburg, oil and gas KhMAO, YNAO, NAO, as well as Tatarstan and others. The debt of these regions has one pronounced feature - it is mainly government securities. Thus, in Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug their share was 87% of the total debt of the region, in Moscow - 78%, in the Krasnoyarsk Territory - 63%. The rest of the debt is intergovernmental loans; these regions borrow little from banks (too expensive, bonds are cheaper). Their credit ratings tend to be at the level Russian Federation or slightly lower.

But the leading regions in terms of the level of subsidies entered the "middle peasants", above the Ministry of Finance "norm" (with a debt of 50% to 85% of their own income). These are Ingushetia (revenues from the federal budget are 7.9 times higher than their own incomes), Chechnya (5.4 times), Tyva (4.3 times), etc. With such low own incomes, even a small debt already brings these regions to a high level .

Debt "traffic light"

Thus, in the "green" (within the Ministry of Finance "norm") in the "red" (risky) zones is about a third of the subjects, and the remaining third - in the "yellow".

The average level of indebtedness of the regions does not pose a threat to the country. Even debt leaders today are very far from the possibility of default. Nevertheless, the Ministry of Finance took measures to contain the deficits of regional budgets, causing them to enter the market for commercial loans. So far it hasn't taken anything special. Enough "moral" work with debtors ... and pressure by the level of subsidies. In 2016, the growth of regional debt practically stopped, and its structure for the regions improved - the share of budget loans with near-zero interest increased. Even debt-leading regions with pre-default ratings (eg Fitch's one letter "B") are not yet facing difficulties in making new loans. And they even plan to enter the government securities market. The amount of servicing the debt of the regions of the "red" zone is not critical for the federal budget.

But what might happen if oil prices suddenly go down and the federal budget deficit starts to widen? The instability of the federal situation can immediately spread to the regional level. In addition, this year will be the last to calculate the results of the implementation of the May (2012) presidential decrees, according to which the main share of funding is assigned to the regions. How can they report? The problem of regional debts is still small (although it is growing), but, as they say, it’s not the path uphill that irritates, but the pebble in the shoe…

* RF BC sets the limit value of this indicator at 15%. The Ministry of Finance considers the share of service costs in the total own expenses of St. 8%, but almost all Russian regions, as far as one can judge, are still out of the risk zone.
** Highly subsidized regions are those in which gratuitous receipts from the federal budget exceed 40% in the volume of own revenues of the consolidated budget of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation during two of the last three years. The exact own calculation is very laborious, the list of highly subsidized regions is not officially published.
*** See “Recommendations for Conducting a Responsible Loan/Debt Policy by the Subjects of the Russian Federation” on the website of the Ministry of Finance.
**** See the list of "donor" regions in the "Rating of Russian Regions", "Profile" No. 47 of December 19, 2016.

Overview of the situation with the debt burden of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation

« real time”studied the situation with the size of the state debt of the regions of Russia and found that Tatarstan is one of the most indebted subjects of the federation. However, the maximum debt Krasnodar Territory, but metropolitan regions trying to get out of debt. St. Petersburg, for example, has repaid half of its national debt over the past year.

The national debt began to decrease slowly

As Realnoe Vremya's study showed, the public debt of Russian regions is on average starting to decrease - for the first time in 10 years. True, at a very slow rate. In particular, according to the data as of July 1, 2017, the volume of the state internal debt of all subjects of Russia is 2.23 trillion rubles, and compared to the same period last year, this amount decreased by about 2% or 50 billion rubles.

The bulk of the debt falls on budget loans from other budgets of the Russian budget system. The regions have such debts - 48%, or approximately 1.06 trillion rubles. The second largest type of debt is loans from credit organizations and international financial institutions, just over a quarter of them (28%), in the amount of 619 billion rubles. Another 20% (453 billion rubles) falls on government securities. State guarantees account for 4% of the debts of the regions, and other debts - about 0.3%.

Note, however, that if we compare the indicators not in July with the same month last year, but in January, then the public debt of the regions is growing. However, the most significant increase was recorded in 2013. By the way, these figures include debts only directly to the regions; debts of municipal formations are not included in them.

Price of the Olympics

The undisputed leader among the regions of Russia in terms of domestic public debt is the Krasnodar Territory. Here the amount amounted to 143.3 billion rubles, which is one and a half times more than in the region in second place. This amount is approximately equally distributed between budget loans from other budgets (60.2 billion rubles) and loans from credit institutions and international financial organizations (55.2 billion rubles). Another 22.6 billion rubles of Kuban's debt are state guarantees, and 5.3 billion rubles are government securities. The amount of debt is really huge - for comparison, all regions of the Urals Federal District owe "only" 137.9 billion rubles. At the same time, the Krasnodar Territory is trying to reduce its debt, but more slowly than many other regions of Russia - over the year it has decreased by only 2.9%. What can I say, the legacy of the Olympics is worth a lot.

The Krasnoyarsk Territory occupies the second place, with an amount of just under 100 billion rubles. Interestingly, the structure of the debt itself is significantly different from the structure of the "leader". The bulk of this has been accumulated not on loans from other budgets, but on government securities - they account for 56 billion rubles. Loans from other budgets amount to only 39.6 billion rubles, and loans from organizations - an insignificant amount of 4.3 billion rubles. It should be noted that the Krasnoyarsk Territory is one of the two regions in the top 5 in terms of the total amount of public debt, which, compared to last year, did not reduce, but increased this figure by 5.5%. This region, by the way, is not spoiled for sporting events, but Krasnoyarsk is preparing to host the Winter Universiade in 2019.

But Tatarstan closes the top three, the indicator of which is 93.5 billion rubles. The republic also has a rather remarkable breakdown: there are absolutely no debts on government securities and loans from organizations. Almost 85 billion rubles fall on budget loans (here Tatarstan is generally the undisputed leader), and 8.7 billion rubles - on state guarantees. Over the year, the state debt of Tatarstan decreased, but not very significantly - by 2.9%. Recall that Realnoe Vremya recently wrote that the Republic of Tatarstan claims the maximum period for restructuring budget debts after the subjects are unable to attract new loans from the federal budget and has already managed to partially restructure debts for the 2015 World Cup.

The Krasnodar Territory is trying to reduce its debt, but more slowly than many other regions of Russia - the legacy of the Olympics is worth a lot. Photo en.wikipedia.org

The fourth place and indicator, 1.4 billion rubles less than that of Tatarstan, belongs to the Moscow Region. Here, debts mainly fall on loans from organizations (47.8 billion rubles), government securities (25 billion rubles), budget loans (19.3 billion rubles). Over the year, the Moscow Region reduced its debt by 6.6%.

Closes the top five is another region from the Volga region - the Samara region. The amount of the state internal debt of the region is 75 billion rubles. It mainly consists of government securities (41 billion rubles), budget loans (22.6 billion rubles) and loans from organizations (11.4 billion rubles). The region has no debts under state guarantees at all. At the same time, it became the leader of the top 5 in terms of increasing the amount of debt for the year - here it grew by a total of 10.7 billion rubles. (16.7%), mainly due to debts on government securities (growth from 27.8 billion to 41 billion rubles).

Perhaps one of the motives for the recent resignation of the regional governor Nikolai Merkushkin is also connected with the indicator of the Samara region in terms of public debt. As of January 1, 2012, the year he headed the region, the public debt was 33.4 billion rubles. A year later, the figure rose to 36.8 billion, by 2015 it reached 53 billion, by 2016 - 62.6 billion, and now, we recall, it is 75 billion rubles. Thus, during the reign of Merkushkin, the state debt of the region increased by 2.3 times. However, it is, of course, impossible to directly link Merkushkin's departure with an increase in public debt - there are a lot of regions in Russia whose debt has grown higher over the past five years (for example, in the nearby Perm Territory - in general, almost 14 times).

Among the regions of the Volga region, the leaders in terms of the size of the state internal debt are also Nizhny Novgorod Region(73 billion rubles), Udmurtia and Saratov region(51.5 billion and 50.4 billion rubles, respectively), as well as Mordovia with 44.6 billion rubles. For comparison, in a region comparable to Tatarstan - the Republic of Bashkortostan - the amount of domestic public debt as of July 2017 is only 23.6 billion rubles - three times less than that of Tatarstan.

At the same time, we note three more regions - the Republic of Crimea, Sevastopol and the Sakhalin Region. The last two have no public debt at all, while Crimea has only 200 million rubles, all of which are budget loans.

Subject	As of July 1, 2017						As of July 1, 2016						Change
				state guarantees	other debt obligations	Total
Krasnodar region	5.280.000,00	55.210.581,90	60.245.637,25	22.605.009,39	0,00
Krasnoyarsk region	55.663.000,00	4.320.353,60	39.642.440,19	237.304,99	3.234,73
Republic of Tatarstan (Tatarstan)	0,00	0,00	84.860.921,45	8.666.930,62	0,00
Moscow region	25.000.000,00	47.800.000,00	19.262.495,22	43.466,86	0,00
Samara Region	40.940.000,00	11.363.270,00	22.631.657,52	0,00	0,00

Top 5 in terms of growth: depressed regions increase their debt burden

Over the past year (from July 1, 2016 to July 1, 2017), the number of regions that reduced and increased their public debt turned out to be approximately equal. At the same time, five constituent entities of the Russian Federation increased their indicator by more than a quarter.

The undisputed leader here is the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, whose public debt has grown by one and a half times - from 7.9 to 12.4 billion rubles. This growth was mainly due to an increase in loans from credit institutions - a year earlier, the figure was 2.4 billion, but now it is 9.7 billion rubles. But the main type of debt before - budget loans - here, on the contrary, decreased from 5.1 to 2.3 billion rubles.

The second place in terms of the growth of public debt is occupied by the Tyumen region - about 40%. A year earlier, the public debt was 1.34 billion rubles, now it has grown to 1.87 billion rubles. This growth is entirely due to the increase in the amount of state guarantees - from 1.02 billion to 1.55 billion rubles.

Almost the same increase in public debt - by 39% - and the Jewish Autonomous Region. Over the year, it grew from 3.86 to 5.37 billion rubles. Here, both main types of debt in the region grew by approximately the same share - loans from organizations and budget loans.

The fourth place in terms of growth - by 38% - belongs to the Kurgan region. Here the amount increased from 11.7 billion to 16.2 billion rubles. As in the case of the Jewish Autonomous Region, loans from organizations and other Russian budgets have also increased.

The Tambov region closes the top five, where the amount of debt increased by almost 28% - from 12.2 billion to 15.7 billion rubles. At the same time, the amount of loans from organizations did not change in the region, but the amount of budget loans increased (from 3.4 billion to 5.5 billion rubles), and government securities were added in the amount of 1.6 billion rubles.

The volume of the state internal debt of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, by type of debt obligations, thousand rubles. (growth)

Subject	As of July 1, 2017						As of July 1, 2016						Change
	government securities	loans from credit institutions and international financial organizations	budget loans from other budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation	state guarantees	other debt obligations	Total
Kabardino-Balkarian Republic	0,00	9.740.280,00	2.333.444,47	368.783,90	0,00
Tyumen region	0,00	0,00	321.322,42	1.551.392,59	0,00
Jewish Autonomous Region	0,00	2.651.882,21	2.718.146,00	0,00	0,00
Kurgan region	0,00	10.909.162,60	5.289.559,84	0,00	0,00
Tambov Region	1.600.000,00	8.552.234,50	5.510.622,77	0,00	0,00

Top 5 debt reduction: capitals get rid of loans

Among the regions that reduced the size of their debts, one can also single out five subjects of the federation - their indicators for the year decreased by more than a third. Almost all of these regions are rich and developed.

Most of all, the amount of liabilities decreased in St. Petersburg. Here, the size of the debt was almost halved - by 46%, from 14.7 billion to 7.9 billion rubles. The region fully repaid debts on government securities (they amounted to 5.9 billion rubles), and also reduced the amount of debt on budget loans - from 8.9 to 7.9 billion rubles.

The situation is similar with the Leningrad region - the amount of debt here decreased by 45%, from 9.5 billion to 5.2 billion rubles. During the year, the region fully repaid debts to organizations in the amount of 4.1 billion rubles, and halved its obligations under state guarantees (from 1.5 billion to 868 million). True, budget loans increased slightly (from 3.7 billion to 4.2 billion).

The third place in terms of debt reduction belongs to the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Here the amount decreased by 39.5% - from 33.1 billion to 20 billion rubles. At the same time, it is curious that the region fully repaid state guarantees for 7.4 billion rubles and corporate loans for 25.7 billion rubles, but received obligations on government securities for 20 billion rubles.

The volume of the state internal debt of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, by type of debt obligations, thousand rubles. (decrease)

Subject	As of July 1, 2017						As of July 1, 2016						Change
	government securities	loans from credit institutions and international financial organizations	budget loans from other budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation	state guarantees	other debt obligations	Total
Kamchatka Krai	0,00	0,00	3.317.332,94	0,00	0,00
Moscow city	34.347.558,00	0,00	13.449.074,58	0,00	0,00
Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug	20.000.000,00	0,00	0,00	4.480,65	0,00
Leningrad region	137.500,00	0,00	4.161.972,19	867.181,06	0,00
St. Petersburg	0,00	0,00	7.904.680,00	0,00	0,00

Fourth place - at the capital of Russia, Moscow. Its public debt decreased by 39% - from 78.3 to 47.8 billion rubles. The city-region reduced debts on budget loans from 21.5 billion to 13.5 billion rubles, on government securities - from 56.9 billion to 34.3 billion rubles.

The Kamchatka Territory closes the top five, having reduced the amount of debt by a third - from 5 billion to 3.3 billion rubles. The region fully paid off debts to organizations (1.1 billion rubles) and reduced the amount of budget debts (from 3.9 billion to 3.3 billion rubles).

The volume of the state internal debt of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, by type of debt obligations, thousand rubles.

Subject	As of July 1, 2017						As of July 1, 2016						Change
	government securities	loans from credit institutions and international financial organizations	budget loans from other budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation	state guarantees	other debt obligations	Total
Central federal district	118.451.023,25	116.375.764,96	229.908.435,86	11.997.241,29	0,00
Belgorod region	17.925.000,00	4.662.500,00	10.654.014,09	10.988.845,28	0,00
Bryansk region	0,00	2.241.092,76	8.686.004,79	0,00	0,00
Vladimir region	0,00	0,00	3.258.246,77	0,00	0,00
Voronezh region	7.028.465,00	1.400.000,00	19.388.266,24	0,00	0,00
Ivanovo region	0,00	7.860.793,00	8.354.697,58	111.679,27	0,00
Kaluga region	0,00	0,00	30.207.622,45	492.567,27	0,00
Kostroma region	1.050.000,00	12.496.953,00	7.778.539,33	0,00	0,00

Maxim Matveev, analytical service of Realnoe Vremya