So far, not a single expert dares to publish a categorical forecast of the dollar exchange rate for October 2017. The whole point is that current situation the currency market today is quite unstable and does not give a definite picture.

Divided in opinion, they do not give a definite forecast. Some experts believe that the dollar exchange rate, although it will rise slightly, will not reach a critical level.

You should expect a maximum of 60 rubles per unit of US currency in October. Other analysts are more categorical and offer a forecast with a more negative outcome.

In their opinion, the strengthening of the ruble will be only a temporary phenomenon, and the dollar will very soon, literally by the middle of the month, reach 62-64 rubles per unit.

The lion's share of uncertainty is brought to the market by a new wave of anti-Russian sanctions. will largely depend on how well the Russian economy survives this blow.

Factors influencing the dollar exchange rate in October

There are many factors that can be named, but all of them, unfortunately, will be negative for the ruble. So, let's return to the new sanctions imposed against Russia. The economy survived the first wave of bans more or less with dignity. However, the last trickle foreign investment V Russian economy may be blocked.

And then investment will literally be reduced to zero. Naturally, such an event cannot but affect the economy and the national currency exchange rate in a negative way.

In addition, experts are also concerned about politics Central Bank Russia, which continues to artificially lower rates in the second half of this year. Unfortunately, this does not have a positive effect on the value of the ruble.

Finally, the situation on the oil market, which at the very least, but helped the ruble “straighten out,” also does not inspire hope. Despite the fact that the OPEC agreement was extended until the end of March next year, the expected stabilization did not follow.

Moreover, Negative influence Oil prices are affected by the active development of shale oil fields in the United States.

Thanks to this, the market is flooded with new supplies of raw materials, for which American mining companies have already managed to prepare, but the rest of the market is completely unprepared. If no positive events occur, we can expect that oil will once again lose its hard-earned positions.

One way or another, the US currency will be able to rise somewhat in October. According to preliminary forecasts, the dollar exchange rate may be:

At the beginning of the month, 57 rubles per unit.

By the end of October 60 rubles per unit.

The maximum value of the dollar is expected to be around 61 rubles.

Making a forecast of exchange rates is a thankless task. I believe they meant the dollar to ruble exchange rate.

Let's just reason

The following factors influence the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar:

1. Oil prices.
2. Discount rate of the Central Bank of Russia.
3. Trade balance of Russia (balance between expert and import of goods).

Oil prices dropped below $50 per barrel and even the OPEC+ agreement did not improve the situation. At the same time, US shale oil production is growing every week, which pushes prices even lower. And Canada is catching up. This negative point for the ruble.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has been actively reducing the discount rate in recent months, but July showed an increase in inflation, and even a poor harvest this year. This could negatively impact inflation and push it higher. In this case, the Central Bank may stop raising rates this year and this will support the ruble. Such actions make the ruble popular for the carry trade strategy. Currency speculators will buy the ruble against the dollar, while borrowing the dollar at a lower interest rate, and giving the ruble back at a higher interest rate and benefiting from the difference in interest rates.

The trade balance has been declining in recent months, which is bad for the ruble exchange rate.

Conclusion: two out of three factors are negative, but the carry trade can support the ruble well; I think the dollar will be in the range of 60-62 rubles per dollar by the end of the year. The most dangerous thing is the departure of carry traders from the ruble; this can happen for various reasons; speculative capital is always dangerous. This scenario could cause jumps in the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for 2017 by month. Expert opinion on the prospects for the USD/RUB pair exchange rate.

What will happen to the dollar in the near future?

Despite the positive dynamics of the Russian currency at the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017, the interest of Russians in the foreign exchange market still remains high. Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to clearly predict the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, however, specifically at your request, we interviewed 8 independent experts and compiled a table with consensus forecasts for the dollar exchange rate by month for 2017. The forecast is given at the end of the period (month). If expert ratings change, the table will be updated.

The majority of analysts surveyed believe that in 2017 the USD/RUB pair will continue to gradually strengthen against the Russian ruble.

According to analysts, in the fall of 2017 the dollar exchange rate may return above 65 rubles, and at the end of the year it may reach 68 rubles.

As economists interviewed by our editors explain, anti-Russian sanctions remain a serious risk factor for the ruble, as well as the active development of the shale industry in the United States. Data coming from the US Department of Energy confirms these fears: the number of drilling rigs in the US has continued to grow steadily since May 2016.

In addition, the ruble exchange rate in Russia may be negatively affected by money-credit policy TSB RF. As expected, the Bank of Russia will continue to decline in the second half of 2017 key rate(forecasts can be viewed). This factor may play against the ruble.

By the way, analysts also predict a depreciation of the ruble in the second half of 2017 brokerage company"Sberbank". In their opinion, this will be facilitated, among other things, by the intervention of the Ministry of Finance on foreign exchange market, as well as a deterioration in the balance of payments.

Chapter Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin believes that the current ruble exchange rate will not change in the coming months:

The factors that influenced the ruble in the first half of the year are no longer so important, and we expect the ruble to be quite stable and remain around current values. Which we consider reasonable. We expect a stable ruble in the coming months

The department revised the average annual dollar exchange rate in 2017 - it was 64.2 rubles, now it is 59.7 rubles. The average annual exchange rate in 2018 will be 64.7 rubles.

Dollar forecast for 2018 by month. Table

Month	Average forecast at the end of the month, rub.
February 2017	59,62
March 2017	58,73
April 2017	58,94
May 2017	59,42
June 2017	59,54
July 2017	60,08
August 2017	61,01
September 2017	59,43
October 2017	59,11
November 2017	61,10
December	62,32

Dollar exchange rate forecast for September 2017

The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for September 2017 is 59.43 rubles.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for October 2017

The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for September 2017 is 59.11 rubles.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for November 2017

The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for November 2017 is 61.10 rubles.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for December 2017

The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for December 2017 is 62.23 rubles.

Expert forecasts: how much the dollar will cost in Russia

The unstable exchange rate of the national currency and the unstable economic situation do not allow long-term forecasts. For example, analysts cannot give a definite answer about how much the dollar will cost from October 1. However, most of them express an opinion about the possible growth of the American currency in last month summer.

Dynamics of the official exchange rate, maximum values

According to the Moscow Exchange, in July the US dollar rose by 1.4%. It is noted that the growth of the American currency continues for the second month in a row, which means further ascent is not excluded.

Experts make their predictions as to why the Russian ruble is not regaining lost ground. Firstly, on economic situation in Russia, sanctions and Russian-American relations, investor sentiment and capital flows influence. How do they pass it on? last news, these factors will have a further impact on the Russian currency and it is possible that, at least until the end of summer, the ruble will continue to weaken. In the short term, expert forecasts come down to a level of 61-64 rubles per dollar. At the same time, economists believe that the European currency will also lose its position in relation to its American counterpart.

Analysts unanimously call sanctions the main enemy Russian ruble- precisely because of them National currency can't recover. And the forecast of 62-63 rubles per dollar is just the beginning and the national currency can significantly accelerate its decline if relations between Russia and the United States do not improve.

On the other hand, investors are now awaiting information on inflation for July in the United States. Plus, the reduction of the Central Bank's key rate in September will strengthen the exchange rate of the Russian ruble. Thus, the positive forecast of analysts comes down to 59-61 rubles per dollar. However, most experts are confident that the US dollar will rise by several points during this month.

The American dollar, which consistently fell in price against the ruble throughout August and early September, began to grow again in the second ten days of the month. The maximum exchange rate for the entire summer season was recorded on August 4, when official rate amounted to 60.75 rubles. By September 9, the dollar had lost almost four rubles in value, dropping to 57.00 rubles. However, the American currency did not go below this level, but on the contrary, began to grow smoothly. What will happen to the dollar in the second half of September and October 2017, what is the opinion of experts on this matter - the forecast for the US dollar to ruble exchange rate is presented below.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for the second half of September 2017

Analysts expect that the rate will continue to rise in the near future. American dollar to the Russian ruble. One of the reasons for this is that the Russian economy, according to the Central Bank of Russia, in July showed its worst trade balance in more than 14 years! Our country's dollar incomes are falling, but expenses are rising. And the import-export ratio of 20.8 versus 24.7 billion dollars, respectively, is the worst since April 2003.

Yes, there is an influx of foreign currency in the form of private investment into the Russian economy, but this factor is quite fragile. If Western investment companies Due to new sanctions, investing in Russian bonds will be prohibited federal loan, this stream of money will dry up in no time.

The sentiment on the stock exchange also speaks about expectations of exchange rate growth.

Futures, that is, contracts deferred in time, for the dollar-ruble pair, are actively being bought by players, both individuals and organizations, and this indicates that both are waiting for the dollar to rise in Russia.

As for specific forecasts for the rest of September, analysts from the APECON agency offer next forecast dollar exchange rate for the second half of September 2017 in Russia:

• already by September 20 the dollar may rise in price to 59.07 rubles,
• To September 25 the dollar exchange rate will fall to 58.17 rubles.
• course for September 30th – 57.17 rubles.

As we can see, so far experts believe that the dollar’s ​​strengthening will be noticeable, but short-lived.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for October 2017

As for forecasts about what will happen to the dollar in October, the same APECON analysts are still predicting a final depreciation for the dollar at the end of the month. Opening the month with a value of approx. 57.17 rubles, the dollar by the end of October will fall in price to 56.38 rubles. Fluctuations during the month are possible in the range from 55.53 to 57.23 rubles.

As happens with most APECON forecasts, closer to the beginning of October, as well as as the month progresses, it will be adjusted, perhaps quite significantly.

Other experts, although they do not talk about likely exchange rates in a given month, generally expect the dollar/ruble exchange rate to return to the level of 60-61 rubles by the end of the year.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for October 2017 from September 30

The latest forecast by APECON experts, made at the very end of September, confirms their earlier conclusions about the fate of the dollar and ruble in October. The expected exchange rate at the beginning and end of the month has changed very little. Let's take a closer look at how, according to analysts, events on the currency exchange will develop in October:

• at the opening of the month, on Monday, October 2, the dollar exchange rate will be set on the 3rd day at 57.13 rubles(the difference with the older forecast above is 4 kopecks),
• at the end of the first week of the month, October 7, the dollar will cost 57.62 rubles,
• based on the results of the second week of October, on the 14th - 57.40 rubles,
• the third week will end with the dollar exchange rate on October 21 57.71 rubles,
• the fourth week of October will end with the dollar exchange rate on the 28th around 57.56 rubles,
• the month will close with the dollar exchange rate on November 1 at the level 56.53 rubles(difference from earlier forecast – 15 kopecks).

Thus, for now, analysts are not inclined to expect another sharp rise in the dollar exchange rate. The ruble will stick to American currency at a fairly stable level with a tendency to strengthen somewhat - within a month the dollar could fall in price by about 60 kopecks.