The actions of the United States towards Russia and China in recent times look like deliberate pressure in the political and economic spheres, designed to inflame the situation. The new American law on the introduction of restrictions for the Russian Federation puts the issue of a complete rejection of the dollar in one of the first places. The prerequisites for this were back in 2014, but now they are approaching reality. It is worth talking about how the abandonment of the dollar by the two big powers will affect the global economy. Possible reasons Sharpened to strike at the Russian energy sector, the new law will force European partners to completely refuse cooperation with Russia. At the same time, it will strengthen relations between Moscow and Beijing. Many political experts point out that the US actions do not arbitrarily provide an opportunity for Russia and China to unite in the economic field and start back pressure. In addition, the dollar has been demonstrating a downward trend over the years, but this fact is very difficult to notice, since the devaluation occurs gradually. In the US, they are trying to compensate for it by stabilizing prices and strengthening the real income of the population. For example, in the post-World War II period, the dollar was worth about 30 percent more than it is today. Due to the gradual drawdown, few people noticed it, continuing to hope for the stability of the US currency. Countries that abandoned the dollar The Europeans were the first to take action in this area. The EU introduced its own currency, which made it possible to shield itself from the "American currency problem." Germany really does not want to be led by the United States, and theoretically can get closer to Russia. This is evidenced by the dual policy of Angela Merkel, who found herself between two fires. In her speeches, she criticizes the Russian Federation in every possible way for "Ukraine and Syria", but she understands that the FRG is tied to cooperation with Moscow in many areas. If there is an axis of power with the participation of Germany, Russia and China, then these countries will definitely reformat the dollar system. In this connection, the cost of gasoline in America suddenly goes up to 10, 11, 12 per gallon. US citizens gradually began to understand that the country's system is heading for disintegration, as evidenced by the ongoing confrontation between Congress and President Donald Trump. The latter, in his election campaign, has repeatedly stated that he will not pursue the goal of inflaming relations with Russia, but will undertake to solve this problem. It is noteworthy that so far no steps have been taken in this direction.

Chinese opinion China, on the other hand, does not fall under the US sanctions list and is not obliged to comply with it. At the same time, Beijing is interested in cooperation with Russia in the energy sector. The political and economic realities of a multipolar world have reduced US power in international affairs. Experts note that if Washington maintains a foreign policy of this kind, by 2030 the value of the dollar may decline and reach a historic low. About this was stated by Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergei Ryabkov. In an interview with ABC News, he said that US sanctions would force Moscow to look for alternatives to the dollar system of reserve currencies. A similar scenario was previously voiced by Beijing.

A prerequisite for the withdrawal of the dollar from the Russian economy was the decision of the Central Bank to settle in the national currency with India. At the beginning of the summer of this year, a meeting of representatives of both countries was held in St. Petersburg, during which the prospects for this decision were discussed. This issue was discussed with China, Vietnam, Brazil, Thailand, Egypt, Turkey, India and Belarus. In February last year, the Central Bank announced that, together with Indian colleagues, it began to work out the issues of settlements between countries in the Russian ruble and the Indian rupee. All other countries are still neutral, as they partially depend on the US currency. The Central Bank noted that in the future negotiations on this matter will be held again until the parties come to a mutually beneficial common denominator.

Trying to get rid of the dollar Back in the fall of 2014, the Bank of Russia and the National Bank of China made the first deal in the national currency. Then the swap line amounted to 150 billion yuan and 815 billion rubles. Representatives of the countries noted that such an innovation would significantly improve the economic situation in the states and ensure more fruitful cooperation. Such tests are designed to ensure the readiness of the two countries to activate the swap if necessary, which becomes especially important against the backdrop of economic uncertainty in world markets and the global financial crisis. Now that the United States continues to openly put pressure on the Russian Federation and oppose China, the deal may take on a new, more radical form. China, which has the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, has already reduced its dollar holdings to $3.8 trillion in December, after hitting a record $4 trillion in June. At the same time, many countries began to show a negative trend. This means that the dollar has every chance to depreciate by the end of this year.

Russia is preparing a plan to reduce the dependence of the economy on the dollar. In accordance with the strategy, domestic businesses will refuse to trade in US currency with foreign partners within five years. Why Moscow has taken a course towards de-dollarization and how this will affect the country's foreign trade potential, 360 understood.

The Russian government is preparing a draft strategy for abandoning the dollar. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev may approve it in one to two weeks, writes The Bell, citing three sources familiar with the discussions. It is noted that the discussion was attended by the Central Bank, VTB and other significant banks, as well as the largest exporters.

According to the publication, the document does not spell out strict requirements for the abandonment of the dollar. The government plans to focus on creating the possibility of payments in national currencies, sources say The Bell. The plan also provides for the easing of currency control and the liberalization of currency legislation.

The document will be based on the proposals of the head of VTB Andrey Kostin. The official presented a plan to move away from the dollar in early September this year. It included the transition to settlement in other units for export-import transactions, the transfer of holdings to Russian jurisdiction, the creation of a Russian depository for the placement of Eurobonds and the licensing of all stock market participants according to uniform operating rules. Kostin also proposed to transfer all trade from the EU to the euro, and with China - to the yuan.

At the same time, there is no talk of a complete rejection of the dollar, Kostin said then. “This plan is absolutely long-term and is aimed more at changing the global trend than at some momentary one-time solution,” the banker emphasized. According to the calculations of the head of VTB, the de-dollarization of the Russian economy will take about five years.

However, ordinary Russians will not be affected by the restrictions, so it’s not worth running to the exchange office, said Yury Yudenkov, professor at the All-Russian Academy of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Economic Development. “Russia has accumulated a large amount of cash in dollars, so those who want to withdraw money in dollars will be able to do so. There should be no panic in the market of individuals, ”said the interlocutor of 360.

Rejection of the economic hegemon

Photo source: RIA Novosti

Russian business has been prompted to gradually abandon the dollar when trading with foreign partners by the sanctions pressure from the United States that has increased in recent years, analysts polled by 360 are sure. In August last year, US President Donald Trump signed into law the Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which involves the imposition of trade restrictions on "America's adversaries."

“The US Congress is threatening to block the correspondent accounts of the largest Russian banks in America. Since Russia trades oil raw materials in dollars, the blockade puts our economy in a difficult position,” Yury Yudenkov emphasized.

In order not to find itself in trade isolation due to possible sanctions from the American establishment, Russia is actively working to switch to national currency settlements with its trading partners. Over the past few years, the country has already managed to accumulate the necessary experience in this area, Denis Manturov, head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, said in an interview with RIA Novosti the day before. According to him, in the near future the business plans to start trading in national currencies with the countries of the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa.

A specific example of a currency transition can be the supply of automotive components from Turkey. According to Denis Manturov, a number of Russian companies are ready to start settlements in Turkish lira. At the same time, the producers of the republic itself, according to the minister, also begin to carry out operations in the national currency with great pleasure.

A departure from the dollar in settlements with trading partners is necessary, Alexander Belchuk, professor of the Department of World and National Economy of the All-Russian Academy of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Economic Development, believes. “The dominance of the dollar in world markets gives the United States huge advantages and the ability to directly exploit other countries. As a result, the economies of developing countries become dependent on the American hegemon, which at any moment can impose sanctions on alleged "enemies",” the 360 ​​interlocutor emphasized.

According to the expert, first of all, Russia can switch to national currencies when trading with the countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Thus, against the backdrop of huge reserves and large foreign trade turnover of the PRC, the Chinese yuan can play a leading role in this issue. Also, Moscow can switch to settlements in national currencies with the states of Latin America. The main contenders may be the three largest countries in the region: Brazil, Mexico and Argentina.

Also, all the former countries of the USSR may join the de-dollarization project, Yury Yudenkov is sure. “With the EU, Russia can also start trading in euros, but there it will have to negotiate with each bank individually, since the European banking system is decentralized,” the 360 ​​interlocutor noted.

Chinese protest

Photo source: RIA Novosti

Russia is not the only country that has decided to reduce the dollar portfolio in its economy. China has been trying to limit the circulation of dollars among the population for several years now. According to the law, customers of an average bank of China can buy no more than five thousand dollars a day, and upon pre-order, the amount cannot exceed 10 thousand dollars. In a year, the Chinese can buy no more than 50 thousand dollars.

Also, China is gradually abandoning the dollar in settlements with foreign partners. Especially actively in national currencies, Beijing trades with Moscow: in 2017, 9% of payments for deliveries from Russia to China were made in rubles. At the same time, Russian companies paid for 15% of Chinese imports in yuan.

However, for China, the transition to international payments in yuan is a national economic strategy, experts say. For example, in March of this year, Beijing launched trading in oil futures in yuan at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange.

“Many world powers are looking for an alternative to the dollar. The first possible candidate to replace the dollar hegemony is the euro. It is followed by the IMF's reserve currency, the yuan. But it is premature to say that countries will abandon the American national currency in the coming years, since now 70% of world trade is conducted in dollars,” Alexander Belchuk summed up.

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MOSCOW, November 8 - RIA Novosti, Alexander Lesnykh. Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov said that India will pay for the supply of S-400 Triumph anti-missile systems in rubles. China is not far behind: according to the head of VEB Igor Shuvalov, an agreement on mutual settlements in national currencies can be signed before the end of this year. What benefit will Russia get from the de-dollarization of foreign trade and who else is ready to join the calculations in national currencies - in the material of RIA Novosti.

Red light to green

The biggest and most obvious benefit for both countries when trading in national currencies is that there are no major fluctuations in recalculation.

So, on January 1 this year, the ruble was given 0.89 Indian rupees, and 10 months later - 0.88 rupees. The maximum exchange rate during this year is 0.98 rupees per ruble, the minimum is 0.85 rupees. This means that the volatility corridor amounted to 0.13 rubles for the entire year.

For comparison: on January 1, the dollar cost 57.04 rubles, and on November 1 - already 65.6 rubles. The maximum value this year is 69.9 rubles, the minimum is 55.6 rubles. The volatility corridor is 14.3 rubles. The difference in this indicator between the ruble / dollar and ruble / rupee pairs is fabulous - 11,000%.

Another equally important problem in settlements through the US dollar is the high probability of sanctions that Washington is distributing right and left this year.

In April, Indian media reported that the financial structures of Delhi had frozen about two billion dollars allocated to pay for critical projects, including the repair of the Chakra nuclear submarine leased from Russia (Project 971 Shchuka-B).

The reason is that the White House included Rosoboronexport in the sanctions list. For financial institutions, this actually means a ban on any settlements in US currency.

But, as practice shows, the world is no longer taking Donald Trump's threats seriously. India chose to maintain relations with the most reliable partner in the field of military-technical cooperation and the supply of weapons - Russia.

From 2007 to 2017, Russia supplied $24.5 billion worth of weapons to India, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). USA - only 3.1 billion.

And Russia's trade with India is not only the supply of arms, the volume of which in 2017 amounted to about $1.9 billion (against the background of a total trade turnover of $9.1 billion). According to Borisov, it is also possible to pay for civilian products in national currencies.

“Today, the share of settlements in rubles for exports is 20%, for imports - about 21%,” the Russian Deputy Prime Minister noted. “This is a good indicator, but, nevertheless, we will increase settlements in national currencies as a means of solving the problem of non-payments. This also applies to contracts for military-technical cooperation."

Unites not only Amur

Another great piece of news for Moscow on the same topic came in early October from the head of Vnesheconombank (VEB), Igor Shuvalov. The top manager said that Russia and China have their own channels for interaction, adding that in the current situation, Beijing is also interested in using them.

"We understand how this scheme should work, it should be described in the agreement. The Chinese side is no less, and perhaps even more interested, as it was announced yesterday by the Chinese President, that such an agreement be signed as soon as possible" , - Shuvalov informed journalists about the results of intergovernmental negotiations.

The banker specified that bilateral consultations will be held in the coming weeks, during which it will be necessary to finally decide how the interaction between the financial institutions of both countries will take place and who will take on the role of an authorized operator in Moscow and Beijing.

Beijing celebrated an important anniversary yesterday on a grand scale: 40 years have passed since the start of Chinese economic reforms and the policy of "opening up to the world." It was this openness, the willingness to learn from the West without copying it, the willingness to make unpopular but necessary reforms, as well as the most serious infusions of American capital aimed at turning China into an effective counterbalance to the late Soviet Union, that became the key to the Chinese economic miracle.

Part of the American elite looks at today's China through the prism of the thesis, which is rather offensive to the Chinese: "I gave birth to you, I will kill you," in the sense that, since the Chinese economic miracle became possible due to the export of Chinese goods to the West, due to the transfer to China is American technology and due to the high level of direct American investment, which means that if all of the above is blocked, China will collapse like a house of cards. The optics and logic of the American Sinophobes are based on the fact that the current strong China is a historical aberration that can and must be corrected.

It's not for nothing that the Trump administration's chief trade negotiator, Robert Lighthizer, is pushing for China to end its "Made in China 2025" import substitution and Chinese high-tech manufacturing program.

The US wants to return the country to the position of "cheap assembly shop" for US companies. Judging by the rhetoric of official Beijing, the view of the most influential (one might say, healthy nationalist) part of the Chinese political elite on their own country comes from completely different premises: according to their version, the humiliation and weakness of their state, which was most clearly manifested in the era of the opium wars, as well as widespread poverty before the beginning of the era of reforms - these are historical aberrations, and the natural state of China is a powerful power and a world pole of power.

President Xi's speech, dedicated to the anniversary of the beginning of reforms, was perceived by many Western observers as a kind of litmus test, as a kind of indicator of which path the country intends to take in the near future. Against the backdrop of negotiations with Donald Trump, after which some media exploded with enthusiastic headlines with a general meaning

"China has surrendered in the trade war," some expected the Chinese leader's keynote speech to be used to covertly explain to fellow citizens the need to end the trade war (that is, de facto capitulation) and open up the Chinese economy. Well, or at least the transition of Chinese rhetoric to a more conciliatory register was supposed. No conciliatory tone was recorded. President Xi offered fellow citizens and the world a very different basic message: "No one is in a position to dictate to the Chinese people what can and cannot be done," he stressed in his speech.

"The reason everyone was following Xi's speech so closely is because they were looking for hints of the concessions he was willing to make in order to alleviate the trade conflict with the US," Al Jazeera, a Qatari correspondent, wrote. ,

President Xi's speech cannot be called capricious - it contains a sober indication that "all sorts of risks and challenges" are expected ahead. During the speech, Asian stock markets fell - investors realized that China did not cave in under Trump's pressure, which means that we are ahead of tariffs, trade restrictions, arrests of Chinese businessmen wherever American intelligence agencies can reach them, and other events that do not contribute to optimism of financial tycoons.

At the same time, it should be noted that the hopes of those who pointed to the likelihood of China returning to the most radical economic and political practices of the Mao era as a mobilization response to external challenges and an instrument for maintaining power by the Chinese Communist Party did not come true. On the contrary, as rightly pointed out by business publication Caixin, President Xi emphasized in his speech that the market will play a key role in the allocation of resources in the country's economy. This can be interpreted as an indication that China is not going to abandon the positive experience of using market mechanisms just because relations between Beijing and Washington have soured badly.

Apparently, in order to emphasize this "pro-market" position of the CCP, one of the honorary awards presented on the occasion of the "anniversary of reforms" went to billionaire Jack Ma, around whom a serious scandal erupted recently due to his membership in the Communist Party of China: on the one hand , Western investors in Jack Ma's Chinese companies did not know how to "digest" the news that the most famous Chinese entrepreneur was the owner of a red party ticket, and on the other hand, there were critics for the party that accepted the billionaire into its ranks.

In a way, the case of the "communist billionaire" Ma is the embodiment of the entire controversial history of Chinese reforms in one person: the combination of what seems impossible to combine produces an interesting and unexpected result.

"Socialism with Chinese characteristics" is a mysterious phenomenon for many foreign analysts, which is the essence of China's economic success. And this is the main reason why, despite external pressure (and even some discontent recorded by foreign observers among the management elite), the Chinese leadership is not going to change its economic and political course.

President Xi in his speech tried to "get through" to Washington and explain that Beijing is not trying to become a "world hegemon". Like Russia, China demands from the United States that it just be left alone and not hindered from developing. Unfortunately, judging by the logic of the current Washington leaders, the very idea that someone just wants to develop and successfully compete with the United States in the global economy is already perceived as a threat to American national interests and American national security. This means that China will be "pressed" by economic, diplomatic and, possibly, even military methods.

The reason is his success, and there is always a reason.

Josef Janning, Head of ECFR Berlin

The plans of the European Commission to strengthen the role of the euro in international trade are due to the recognition of the structural dependence of European trade on the US economy, on the dollar as a global currency, and on dollar transactions for key commodities. The extraterritorial legislation of the United States and the sanctions policy only increase the dependence of Europe. Be that as it may, this approach by no means implies “abandoning the dollar” or a complete replacement of the US currency with the euro.

The eurozone countries are unwilling and currently unable to address the political implications of such a substitution strategy and are wary of facing financial implications for the euro as a global reserve currency.

At best, the strengthening of the euro can lead to the replacement of the US dollar by a basket of the world's leading currencies - the yuan, the yen, the euro. The EU should ensure that large energy contracts are concluded on the basis of the euro, respectively, using a basket of currencies. Likewise, all key commodity contracts, from soybeans to aircraft, must be paid in euros. Such measures will reduce the commitment to the dollar and the currency effects of US sanctions, although they will not reduce the interest of European companies in the US market.

Clearly, even with the inclusion of the Chinese market, exporting to the US or manufacturing in the US is more important for many large European companies than for any other export market outside the EU. After all, the US and the EU are each other's most important destinations for exports and investment - and European politicians are unlikely to want to undermine their own interests.

For Russia, "de-dollarization" should strengthen relations with European countries in the energy sector - in particular, with Germany - but it does not provide a significant strategic advantage beyond that.

With a GDP equal to Spain, the Russian market is too small and too static to balance transatlantic business ties. Russian geopolitics continues to generate controversy on both sides of the Atlantic (as if there weren't enough already), irritating European politicians, undermining EU integration and intimidating neighbors. Thus, the potential of partnership with Europe, which Russia can use, will remain very limited.

China, the only competitor to the American economy and geopolitics in the eyes of decision makers in Washington, can really make a difference. Since the turn of the century, China has been at the center of US strategy, and the shift came only in connection with the fight against terrorism and the post-9/11 wars in the Middle East. The Trump administration has brought China back into the spotlight.

As the rivalry intensifies, America's international relations are increasingly being viewed through the prism of their usefulness to US policy to contain China. Beijing seems to be gradually adopting the experience of America. This could quickly raise trade wars to a higher level, with a direct impact on both Europe and Russia, not to mention other regions. Both sides will expect their partners to support them.

The political and economic consequences of such a scenario have a much more destructive potential than the US withdrawal from the agreement with Iran. And the strengthening of the euro as a trading currency is unlikely to change the situation.