The dollar continues to grow on the sanctions, the ruble expects many surprises..

Current exchange rate: USD 65.56 EUR 76.22 oil 81.55

The dollar exchange rate for today, September 28, 2018: when is the best time to buy dollars, experts said

Exchange rates for today, September 28, 2018: The Central Bank of the Russian Federation raised the dollar and lowered the euro for today.

The official dollar and euro exchange rate for today, September 28, 2018, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation

The official dollar exchange rate established by the Bank of Russia as of September 28, 2018 is 65.83 rubles, the euro exchange rate today is 77.04 rubles.

The dollar exchange rate in Sberbank today is set at 64.39 rubles. upon purchase and 66.72 rubles. when sold by a bank, the euro exchange rate on September 28, 2018 is 74.96 rubles. and 77.60 rubles. when buying and selling by Sberbank, respectively.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for the week of 2018 in Russia: expert opinion

Forex Club analyst Mikhail Rytik states that over the past 20 years, the ruble has been constantly weakening against foreign currencies, and this trend is likely to continue, because the cheap national currency is beneficial to the state.

In the short term, the ruble will directly depend on world oil prices, which have been rising recently, approaching record levels since 2014.

Speaking about the currency, the expert recalls that earlier market participants were afraid of any surprises from the US Federal Reserve, however, a recent meeting of the regulator showed that the Fed is not going to do anything out of the ordinary, and the Russian financial regulator is currently pursuing a policy aimed at maintaining the exchange rate ruble.

“We can expect that in October the dollar against the ruble will fall to 64.5-65 rubles, and the euro will fall to 76-76.5 rubles,” Rossiyskaya Gazeta quotes the expert.

According to him, the current situation can be considered for the possibility of buying "dollars or euros in the near future as the easiest and longest-term investments."

The dollar was predicted to crash

The ruble was ranked among the most undervalued currencies in the world
The Russian currency should be at least 15% more expensive than it is now. Deutsche Bank analysts came to this conclusion, pointing to a sharp discrepancy between the current ruble quotes and the “fair exchange rate”.

The review of the bank states that in the near future the “Russian” will strengthen to 60 rubles per $1. The last time the ruble reached such a mark was in April, on the eve of the next expansion of the package of anti-Russian sanctions by the United States, RBC reports.

According to Deutsche Bank calculations, the ruble is one of the five most undervalued currencies in the world. The methodology by which the corresponding calculations are made makes it possible to track the discrepancies between the real exchange rate and the country's macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation, productivity, and others. To value a currency against a basket of currencies currency pairs weighted by share in foreign trade. Thus, the dollar was overvalued by as much as 7%.

German experts positively assessed the state of the Russian economy. Inflation at 3% is still well below the target of 4% and will hit it by early 2019. The short-term real rate is 3.5-4%, and the Central Bank's determination to raise the key rate should support the rate in the coming months.

Russia remains among the emerging markets least exposed to external shocks, the review says. The strengths of the Russian economy include high real rates, a positive current account balance, a strong fiscal balance, and a high reserve coverage ratio. All this will help strengthen the ruble. He will also be helped by the decision of the regulator to suspend purchases of foreign currency under the budget rule until the end of the year.

The main and almost the only threat to the stability of the Russian currency is the sanctions rhetoric. Uncertainty has a negative effect on the mood of market participants. The threat of restrictions is forcing investors to refuse to invest in Russian assets.

So far, the ruble is far from the predicted mark of 60 rubles per dollar, but at least it remains stable. Yesterday on the Moscow Exchange the Russian currency rose against the main world currencies again. The dollar exchange rate fell by 17 kopecks, to 65.62 rubles, the euro exchange rate - by 88 kopecks, to 76.37 rubles.

Nevertheless, Vladislav Antonov, an analyst at Alpari, believes that the ruble has exhausted its growth potential in this period. “Technically, all the conditions for an upward correction have been met. The dollar/ruble pair has been in the reversal zone of 65.00-65.30 rubles. The tax period is over. Oil is trying to correct. The scales begin to tilt towards foreign currencies, ”Prime quotes him as saying.

The Central Bank explained why the ruble is strengthening

A combination of factors contributed to the strengthening of the ruble, including the actions of the Central Bank and the dynamics of world oil prices, Ksenia Yudaeva, First Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia, said on Tuesday.

“Firstly, we see the strengthening and depreciation of the dollar in all emerging markets - this is the first factor. Secondly, I think our decision (to suspend the purchase of currency until the end of 2018 - ed.) contributed to reducing volatility. Thirdly, the price of oil had some influence. Of course, this cannot be completely attributed to the price of oil, ”RIA Novosti quotes Yudaeva as saying.

The dollar on Tuesday continues to decline against the ruble on the Moscow Exchange. Rising oil in the absence of geopolitical negativity and verbal interventions support the rate of the Russian currency, experts say.

The dollar exchange rate against the ruble by settlements "tomorrow" at 15.29 Moscow time decreased by 8 kopecks, to 65.75 rubles, the euro exchange rate increased by 10 kopecks and was equal to 77.47 rubles.

Since September 10, the ruble has already grown by 7.5% against the dollar and by 6.2% against the euro, which on Tuesday updated the lows from August 8 and 21, respectively - 65.64 rubles and 77.14 rubles.

Earlier, the Ministry of Finance explained the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar by stabilization in emerging markets and the actions of the Bank of Russia on foreign exchange market. This was stated by Deputy Minister of Finance of Russia Vladimir Kolychev.

“Naturally, the ruble and Russia are not in a vacuum, of course, they traded with an eye on these processes,” Kolychev said.

Kolychev also noted that the measures of the Bank of Russia to ensure financial stability and reduce volatility in the financial market helped the ruble to stabilize.

On September 14, the Central Bank decided not to buy foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance until the end of 2018. In addition, at a meeting on September 14, the Bank of Russia decided to increase key rate from 7.25% to 7.5%.

One word will decide the fate of the dollar

The further movement of the dollar will depend on just one word, which will be uttered at the final press conference of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday, after the American regulator is almost 100% likely to raise the rate by 0.25%. Business Insider writes about this with reference to the analysis of currency strategists at Macquarie Bank.

In their opinion, if the parameters of the Fed's policy are described as "adaptive", then it can be concluded from this that the potential for maintaining a tight policy of the regulator remains high. This means that a further increase in the rate continues to stimulate the growth of the US economy and the period when the rate becomes neutral or even restrictive for these purposes has not yet come.

If this word disappears from the lexicon of the head of the Fed, investors will have to think about the fact that the monetary policy of the US authorities can probably be eased, which could lead to a weakening of the dollar.

As of 7.59 Moscow time, the euro exchange rate against the dollar fell to 1.1742 dollars per euro from the previous closing level of 1.1749 dollars per euro. The dollar against the yen rose to 112.88 yen per dollar from 112.81 yen. The dollar index increased by 0.16% to 94.34 points.

Meanwhile, on September 25, the ruble has every chance to continue its course for strengthening against the backdrop of expensive oil (more than $81). The dollar exchange rate at the auctions on Monday fell to 65.84 rubles (minus 0.85%). The euro exchange rate is up to 77.36 rubles (minus 0.89%). The ruble may take on Tuesday attempts to storm the level of 65 rubles per dollar.

The dollar went into a steep dive after Draghi's statement

The dollar tumbled on Monday after comments by ECB chief Mario Draghi that the observed inflation in the eurozone adds arguments in favor of setting a rate hike in 2018. The euro soared by one and a half percent, reaching its highest level since June. The European currency is trading at $1.1800 by 16:16 Moscow time.

“Core inflation is expected to pick up even more in the coming months as a tightening labor market pushes growth wages", - said the head of the ECB in Brussels on Monday, speaking in the European Parliament. “Domestic price (factors) are strengthening and expanding,” he said.

The ECB predicts that inflation, excluding consumer prices and energy, will be 1.8% in 2020.

Following Draghi's announcement, 10-year European and US bond yields also jumped.

The ruble at the auction on Monday traded in a decent plus amid a surge in oil prices. The dollar exchange rate for the first time this month fell below 66 rubles - 65.78 by 17:02 Moscow time, losing almost 1% of its value.

The euro lost about 0.5% compared to yesterday and is trading at 77.6 rubles.

The cost of a barrel of Brent oil rose above $80. This was facilitated by the refusal of OPEC countries to heed the calls of US President Donald Trump to lower oil prices.

Large foreign speculators found themselves net short the ruble for the first time since last August. Prior to that, they had been net long for 53 consecutive weeks. This follows from the latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In the week before September 18, net speculative positions in ruble futures turned from long to short. The volume of net bearish bets on the Russian currency is now 3,830 contracts.

Since the beginning of the year, the dollar exchange rate against the ruble has grown by 15%. In the last week, the Russian currency has steadily strengthened, adding more than 5%, against the backdrop of rising oil prices, the sale of dollars by exporters and the return of risk appetite in international markets.

As of September 24, 2018, the official dollar exchange rate established by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation decreased by 22.28 kopecks compared to the previous level and amounted to 66.24 rubles. The euro exchange rate today has increased by 32.24 kopecks - up to 78.076 rubles.

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Trading this week will take place against the background of expectations of a rate hike by the Fed. Experts are confident that the US regulator will cut the rate by 0.25 percentage points. However, more important will be the commentary of the Fed leadership, which will allow investors to draw conclusions about the future plans of the US monetary authorities. The main question is whether we should expect another rate hike in December 2018.

Tough rhetoric from the Fed will have a negative impact on the ruble.

Support for the Russian currency will be provided by the results of the meeting of OPEC members and representatives of non-member states. Oil-producing countries opposed measures aimed at lowering oil prices. The participants of the meeting in Algiers announced this on Sunday, September 23, in a joint statement.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for October 2018

Today, there is a rapid fall in the national currency, which leads to an increase in the value of the American currency. The dollar exchange rate forecast from October 2018 depends on many events that take place inside and outside the country. Today, the dollar has crossed a record mark of 70 rubles at the average bank rate. Analysts and economists do not yet see a downward trend.

Indicators affecting the growth of the dollar

The position of the national currency in the global financial market depends on many external and internal factors. The decrease in its cost is reflected in all economic and social spheres, as it leads to an increase in prices for ordinary citizens. The main factors contributing to the depreciation of the ruble and the appreciation of the dollar include:

• falling oil prices;
• new US sanctions;
• raising Fed rates;
• outflow of currency;
• increase in VAT.

Focusing on the above factors, the forecast for the value of the dollar from October 2018 is considered mainly upward. It is possible that the US currency will continue to grow until December. The price from experts and economists varies between 72-75 rubles. It is possible that the USD exchange rate will rise to 80 rubles at the end of the year.

Dollar exchange rate: Russian authorities have cooled the ardor of the ruble

The dollar in the second half of Thursday moved to growth against the ruble. By 17:33, the dollar exchange rate was 66.47 rubles, which is 0.5% better than the close of the previous day. At the opening of Thursday, the ruble rose steadily, breaking through the resistance level of 66.5 rubles per dollar and reaching the level of 66.23.

However, then the dollar began to correct upwards against the backdrop of lower oil prices.

The euro exchange rate also turned towards strengthening in the second half of the day - its value amounted to 78.14 (+0.2%) by 17:33 Moscow time.

Another "cooling" factor for the ruble was the statement on Thursday by First Deputy Prime Minister - Finance Minister Anton Siluanov that the Bank of Russia could resume buying foreign currency for the Finance Ministry this year.

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“If the situation on the foreign exchange market continues in the same direction, that is, the exchange rate continues to strengthen, then, probably, central bank will be able to return to this issue one more time. I think that together we can hold some kind of consultations,” Siluanov said, answering the question of how expedient it is to suspend purchases of foreign currency until December. His words leads PRIME.

“But I repeat once again that the latest decisions on this issue on participation in the foreign exchange market in terms of purchases for the Russian government, the currency is the competence of the Bank of Russia, so I do not exclude that the Central Bank may return to this issue again if the situation will change dramatically in the opposite direction,” he added.

On September 14, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation decided to suspend purchases of foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance on the market until the end of December 2018. This decision provided tangible support to the national currency.

dollar falls

The dollar exchange rate against the ruble is declining against the backdrop of a statement by Saudi Arabia, Expert reports.
The dollar exchange rate by 16:52 is reduced by more than 1% - to 67.35 rubles. The euro fell by 0.82% - to 78.84 rubles.
Earlier, Bloomberg, citing sources, said that Saudi Arabia considers the price of Brent oil above $80 acceptable in the short term due to the consequences of US sanctions against Iran.
Against the background of this message, the price of Brent oil is also growing, by 16:52 Moscow time the quotes amounted to 79.64 dollars per barrel. Rambler reports.

Dollar exchange rate: the ruble has overcome the psychological mark

The dollar exchange rate moved in the second half of the day to decrease against the ruble, dropping below the psychological mark of 68 rubles.

In favor of the ruble - lower sanctions risks, expensive oil (about $78.5 per barrel) and the recent decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to raise the key rate by 0.25% and refuse to buy foreign currency on the market until the end of the year.

The dollar exchange rate against the ruble by settlements "tomorrow" at 15.58 Moscow time is reduced by 8 kopecks, to 67.99 rubles, the euro rate rises by 30 kopecks and was equal to 79.40 rubles.

The dollar is declining on the international market amid fears of exacerbation of trade relations between the US and China. The dollar index fell to 94.10, shedding 0.42%.

JPMorgan analysts, whose opinion is quoted by Reuters, believe that new US tariffs, which could be introduced any day, could eventually lead to a further aggravation of the trade conflict with China.

Expert forecasts: The dollar may fall in price this week

The ruble exchange rate this week will still depend heavily on external threats, but the Bank of Russia was able to stop some of the risks for the Russian currency on Friday. It is likely that the dollar in the coming days may drop to 67 rubles, analysts admit.

At the Friday meeting of the Board of Directors, the Bank of Russia decided to raise the key rate by 0.25 percentage points to 7.5% per annum, which was perceived positively by the market and allowed the ruble to win back part of the losses (the Russian currency on the Moscow Exchange on Friday strengthened to almost 68 rubles per dollar). The second decision of the Central Bank, which had a positive impact on the ruble, was the extension of the suspension of the purchase of foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance under the budget rule on the open market until the end of 2018.

Thus, market expectations of further retreat of the ruble are noticeably reduced, Andrey Kochetkov, a leading analyst at Otkritie Broker, believes. “Nevertheless, the traditional risks associated with external pressure will remain. In particular, the election campaign will be gaining momentum in the United States, which will be accompanied by harsh rhetoric against Moscow, ”he notes. Also among the political risks are Syria and the topic of poisoning in the British Salisbury, adds Kochetkov. However, in many respects these factors have already been taken into account in the current course, the analyst believes.

This week begins with tax payments in Russia, which, given the high price of oil, may have a positive effect on the state of the national currency, says the director of the Department of Operations for financial markets Bank "Russian Standard" Maxim Timoshenko. With the price of European Brent oil above $78 per barrel, exporters may begin to actively fix foreign exchange earnings, supporting the ruble, he believes.

The refusal to purchase foreign currency under the budget rule until December relieves medium-term pressure, returning the ruble to a state of “normal” reaction to market events, Kochetkov said. In his opinion, therefore, the price of oil, the movement of commodity currencies and currencies of developing countries, as well as the prospects for raising the US Federal Reserve rate will have a higher value for the positions of the ruble this week.

According to Kochetkov, this week we should expect fluctuations of the Russian currency in the range of 67-69 rubles per dollar with a high probability of the ruble strengthening. The trading corridor of the current week for the Russian currency is 67-68.3 rubles per dollar, Tymoshenko predicts.

Oreshkin called the real exchange rate of the dollar - 50 rubles, but promised the currency only 64

With the current oil price of about $78 per barrel, a dollar in Russia should theoretically cost 50 rubles. It is this exchange rate that the minister economic development Maxim Oreshkin considers it to be equilibrium, that is, it is fair in the absence of an outflow of capital from the country and purchases of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank into reserves. So far, the dollar is above 69 rubles, but by the end of the year, according to the expectations of the Ministry of Economic Development, it may drop to 64 rubles. Until November, analysts see no reason to strengthen the rate.
The fall of the ruble at the beginning of the week was due to a sharp outflow of capital. Photo: Depositphotos.com The fall of the ruble at the beginning of the week was due to a sharp outflow of capital. Photo: Depositphotos.com The fall of the ruble at the beginning of the week was due to a sharp outflow of capital. Photo: Depositphotos.com
The current weakening of the ruble is associated with a short-term sharp outflow of capital from Russia, Maxim Oreshkin said at the Eastern Economic Forum. As soon as the outflow stops, the trend will reverse. “If you look at yesterday (September 11. - Ed.), the ruble began to seriously strengthen, despite the fact that emerging currencies felt stable on global markets,” the minister said (quoted by RIA Novosti).

Russia has a floating exchange rate, there is volatility in capital flows, and it is connected “both with the global situation and with sanctions stories,” Oreshkin explained. “Can it take a long time? Maybe. We have a forecast for the end of the year, and we have a forecast for the next 12 months. Here, we still see no reason to change these indicators, ”he assured. So, according to the forecast of the department, by the end of the year the dollar exchange rate in December 2018 will be 63.9 rubles, by the end of 2019 - 63.8 rubles.

The ruble on the Moscow Exchange opened this week with a decline: the dollar for the first time in 2.5 years exceeded 70 rubles. However, on Tuesday-Wednesday, the rate regained some losses and dropped to 69.4 rubles. The strong position of the US dollar in the world market and the threat of exacerbating trade contradictions between China and the United States continue to be the main information source for investors on global markets, leading to another sale of assets in the markets of developing countries, which include Russia. At the same time, the topic of sanctions continues to be a big irritant for the ruble, says Denis Davydov, an analyst at Nordea Bank. He allows for the strengthening of anti-Russian sanctions rhetoric and the preservation of the dollar in the range of 69-70.5 rubles.

In the short term, everything really points to the risks of a weakening of the ruble, Mikhail Poddubsky, an analyst at Promsvyazbank, agrees, but he notes that in the medium term the ruble is “noticeably undervalued”: the analyst calls the exchange rate in the region of 67-68 rubles per dollar relatively fair given the current background (taking into account the purchases of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance in reserves). “Given the current news background, it is still problematic for the ruble to level the existing undervaluation,” Poddubsky points out. In turn, Finam Group analyst Sergey Drozdov believes that until the ruble confidently consolidates below 69, there are still risks of its return to above 70.

Predicting a rollback of the ruble to the levels of early August, Maxim Oreshkin on Business FM has already advised selling dollars, apparently in order to capitalize on the difference in exchange rates. Later, VTB Chairman of the Board Andrei Kostin recalled in a radio interview that Oreshkin was one of the brightest economists when he worked at VTB, but he made a reservation about his advice: “I would not be so sure.” Kostin prefers to wait until November, when it becomes finally known how much the US will tighten sanctions against Russia. According to Kostin, the bank now has enough dollars in case “if people run to withdraw money,” and in the event of tightening US sanctions against VTB Bank, it has prepared an action plan that will keep foreign currency deposits intact.

The ruble was assigned a real price

The exchange rate of the Russian currency is greatly undervalued, according to the government
At current oil prices, the dollar should cost 20 rubles less - about 50 rubles. But in reality this does not happen. The Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Maxim Oreshkin complained about this to journalists.

Yesterday at the auctions on the Moscow Stock Exchange the value of the dollar and the euro fell sharply, thus recouping the fall of the ruble at the end of last - beginning of this week. By the close of the stock exchange, the American currency lost 1.15 rubles in price, the European currency fell by 1.23 rubles. As a result, for $1 they gave 69.41 rubles, for 1 euro - 80.6 rubles.

The head of the Ministry of Economic Development called the course correction a completely logical course of events. According to him, the weakening of the national currency is associated with a short-term sharp outflow of capital from Russia. As soon as the outflow stops, the trend will reverse, the official believes.

“And if you look at yesterday, the ruble began to seriously strengthen, despite the fact that developing currencies felt stable on global markets,” RIA Novosti quoted the minister as saying.

Oreshkin sees no reason to change the medium-term and long-term forecast exchange rate of 63-64 rubles per dollar: “We have a strong balance of payments, a budget balance of about 1% of GDP, a surplus of about 1% of GDP, and a moderate external debt.”

According to the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, despite the fact that the global crisis has covered a number of developing countries, Russia has a sufficient margin of safety.

Experts predict lateral dynamics for the ruble in the coming days. In their opinion, the dollar will remain in the range of 69.5-70.25 rubles, the euro - in the corridor of 80.75-81.5 rubles. Further dynamics depend on the development of the situation in Syria, the possible expansion of trade restrictions between the United States and China, and the dynamics of oil prices, Rossiyskaya Gazeta reports.

“Fundamentally, the Russian ruble has the potential for a more pronounced recovery after the recession of the rush sales,” experts agreed with the opinion of Maxim Oreshkin.

Additional support for the ruble and other currencies of developing countries is the situation around Brexit. In recent days, favorable news has begun to appear about the settlement of the conditions for the UK's exit from the EU. This news served as a stabilizing factor.

On the other hand, the expected resumption of discussions around the introduction of a new package of sanctions against Russia in the US Congress may lead to another surge of panic among investors and serve as a basis for the depreciation of the ruble.

Dollar exchange rate: the “double” of the American currency threatens the ruble

Recently, the dollar has been showing dual dynamics, as if the US currency had a "double". The Wall Street Journal writes about it.

On the one hand, the dollar began to lose its strength against the currencies of developed countries - the euro and the yen. On the other hand, the "second" dollar threatens to completely destabilize emerging markets.

For example, the dollar index against six major currencies is struggling to maintain the levels of last week, trading at 95.20. At the same time, the dollar continues to roll on the EM currencies, including the Russian ruble.

The ruble exchange rate is again in the red on Monday, breaking through the level of 70 per dollar. From more powerful fall the Russian currency was saved by large volumes of export earnings on the Russian site.

The dollar is still overvalued by 10% against key currencies, analysts say, and the broader downward trend in the US currency that began back in 2017 will continue.

As soon as trade tensions subside and the Fed hints at easing monetary policy, the dollar will immediately falter and begin to decline vigorously against the euro and yen.

“The real trend is a weaker dollar,” said Brandywine Global fund manager Jack McIntyre.

At the same time, the sell-off in emerging markets will continue until the Fed's series of rate hikes comes to an end.

Dollar profits continue to smash the EM markets. Thus, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index turned bearish last week after years of climbing.

“The US economy is far from recession, and the Fed is unlikely to stop tightening just because of emerging markets,” predicts Adnan Akant, head of the foreign exchange division of BNP Paribas Asset Management. The “sell-off” (in EM markets) can continue for a while, waxing and waning.”

Dollar at 70, euro at 81 - when the fall of the ruble stops

The euro, following the dollar, broke the value record in more than two years. At about 13:00 Moscow time, the value of the euro on the Moscow Exchange exceeded 81 rubles, the dollar again rose above 70 rubles.

The exchange rates of the dollar and the euro on the Moscow Exchange again turned to growth after several hours of decline. During the morning trading session on Monday, September 10, the euro exchange rate was declining, dropping to a minimum of 80.5275 rubles, which is 27.25 kopecks. below the closing level of the previous trades. However, around 13:00 Moscow time, the exchange rate of the European currency for the first time since March 2016 rose above 81 rubles.

Over the next few minutes, the value of the euro rose to 81.25 rubles, which is 45 kopecks. above the close of trading on September 7. Above this mark, the exchange rate of the European currency last rose on March 1, 2016.

However, the fall of the ruble did not stop there. Soon, the value of the euro exceeded 81.6 rubles.

Thus, on September 10, more than two-year value records were updated for both the euro and the dollar. The cost of the latter in the first minutes of trading on Monday reached 70.16 rubles, which is 25 kopecks. above the closing level of the previous trades. Then the ruble began to strengthen, the dollar went into the red zone and fell to 69.7 rubles. However, before lunch, the dollar again began to rise in price, reaching 70.18 rubles at the peak, and then 70.51 rubles.

Anton Pokatovich, Chief Analyst at BCS Premier, explained what is happening with the “colossal pressure on the ruble” resulting from the outflow of capital from Russia and the intensification of the downturn in the debt markets against the backdrop of a “whole set of external risk factors”, including the threat of new sanctions against Russia. . Moreover, according to Pokatovich, before the meeting of the Central Bank on Friday, investor doubts may increase due to the lack of appropriate verbal interventions.

“The formation of a unified position of the government, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank on further resolving the situation in the debt markets and conveying this position to investors will help stop the fall of the ruble, which can stop the fall of OFZs. I believe that the Central Bank at the upcoming meeting should stick to its independent position, continue to tighten its rhetoric, and increase the key rate by 25 bp. may have a positive impact on the stabilization of debt markets,” Pokatovich said.
On Friday, September 7, the euro also set a record at the auction: its value rose above 80 rubles for the first time since March 2016. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov explained the depreciation of the ruble with the expectation of a second round of anti-Russian sanctions, as well as instability in the markets of developing countries, primarily Turkey.

In turn, presidential aide Andrei Belousov said that the weakening of the ruble "so far" is not a matter of concern. “This is a purely opportunistic story related to well-known political events,” he added.​

The dollar continued to grow on the evening of September 7

According to the Moscow Exchange, the US dollar rose by 2.3 rubles on Friday evening. to 69.8 rubles, the euro rose by 2.5 rubles. up to 80.9 rubles. Thus, the dollar and the euro finished the working week, once again updating the highs for 2.5 years.

Recall that the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar and the euro during the ending working week, especially in the second half of it, was significantly declining against the backdrop of increased geopolitical risks.

The collapse of the Russian currency was influenced by several factors at once. Among them is the sale of OFZs and the growth of their yields, which created the groundwork for investors, especially foreign ones, to exit the ruble into the main reserve currencies.

The ruble also failed to cope with the resumption of anti-Russian sanctions rhetoric from the US Congress.

Another blow was dealt to the ruble the day before, when the press services of the governments of France, Germany, the United States and Canada announced their agreement with the conclusions of British investigators that the suspects in the "Skripal case" were employees of the Russian GRU.

At the same time, the US Senate discussed what sanctions to apply to Russia - personal, a ban on the purchase of public debt or on settlements in dollars for the largest banks. This sent the ruble against the dollar and the euro to lows since March 2016.

Among the internal factors of pressure on the ruble, fears about the growth of inflationary expectations of the population of the Russian Federation for the next year have become more and more convincing. In August, this figure rose to 9.9% from 9.7% in July.

Despite this, independent expert Anton Shabanov, in an interview with Komsomolskaya Pravda Radio, said that purely economically, the ruble is now stable.

“Everything that is happening now with the national currency is more like a panic,” the expert is convinced. - We have very good indicators in trade, and reserves, and oil is expensive. Fear of sanctions. In addition, news came out this week that specific Russians were accused of being poisoned in the UK.”

In addition, Shabanov believes that as soon as everything calms down, quotes can instantly roll back.

“Therefore, now any currency speculation can be both very profitable and very dangerous. In the sense that the ruble may fall back. I do not advise private investors who do not have experience in financial markets to engage in speculation right now,” the expert concluded.

The dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange rose above 69 rubles, the euro - above 80

During trading on the Moscow Exchange on Thursday, the ruble fell to psychologically important levels. The dollar cost more than 69 per dollar, for the euro they gave 80 rubles. Experts attribute this to the ongoing sanctions rhetoric and new statements in the case of the poisoning of the Skripals.

By 16:57 Moscow time, the dollar was worth 68.9 rubles, the euro - 80.21 rubles.

The euro has become more expensive than 80 rubles for the first time since April. The dollar broke through the mark of 69 rubles at the end of August, after which the central bank announced the suspension of the purchase of foreign currency for domestic market until the end of September.

The regulator took this decision to “increase the predictability of the actions of the monetary authorities and reduce the volatility of financial markets.”

Before the August rise in price, the dollar last broke through the mark of 69 rubles in April 2016.

“There can be several reasons for the growth of the exchange rate. First, these are external factors - namely, the situation in emerging markets. Strengthening debt problems in Turkey, Argentina, Indonesia, Brazil provokes an outflow of investors from emerging markets, and Russia belongs to this segment,” says Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist at BCS Bank.

The pressure on the ruble remains, he notes. Reports about the Skripal case increase the likelihood that sanctions could be imposed - and this worsens the attitude of investors towards the ruble, the expert believes.

The factors of pressure on the currency remain the same: the sanctions topic and the difficult situation in emerging markets, whose currencies are exposed to risks due to the threat of an escalation of the trade war. A decision on new US tariffs on Chinese goods may be made before the end of this week, Nordea Bank analysts write in a review.

In addition, the risks of a fall in the ruble are increasing after the statements of Scotland Yard about the investigation into the poisoning of the Skripals in Salisbury. The likelihood of the second part of the US sanctions package coming into force by the end of November is increasing, experts say.

This package of sanctions provides for the suspension of trade between Russia and the United States, as well as diplomatic relations between the countries and air traffic involving state-controlled Russian airlines. In addition, American banks may be banned from financing Russia.

Experts predicted the final collapse of the ruble

Even inveterate optimists no longer believe in the Russian currency.

The likelihood of the US authorities introducing a new package of anti-Russian sanctions is growing every day. On Thursday, September 6, US senators returned to discussing this issue, and on the eve of this date, British law enforcement officers finally released "evidence" of the involvement of Russian intelligence services in the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal. It can hardly be a mere coincidence.

During yesterday's trading on the Moscow Exchange, the dollar rose by a whole ruble, to 69.25 rubles, while the euro rose in price even more - by 1.11 rubles, to 80.5 rubles, according to the data of the trading floor. The ruble has been weakening for a whole month, but so far this is just a warm-up before a really rapid fall, which could occur if a new package of anti-Russian restrictions is introduced.

“The threat of sanctions will continue to weaken the ruble, and the target for further weakening is the area of ​​72 rubles per dollar and 84 rubles per euro. And the threat of a further collapse of the national currency is forcing the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to take non-standard measures. In particular, the bank expressed its readiness to buy back its own bonds in order to support the market,” she said. Russian newspaper» Expert of the International Financial Center Olga Prokhorova.

Additional pressure on the ruble is exerted by the decision of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation to resume purchases of "hard" currency to replenish reserves within the framework of the budget rule. In August, the department did not do this, which somewhat slowed down the fall of the ruble. In September, purchases will be carried out with redoubled zeal. True, the operations will not be carried out on the open market, but will be converted directly from the Central Bank. Perhaps this will help reduce the negative impact on the national currency.

In addition to the threat of sanctions and foreign exchange interventions by the Ministry of Finance, the decline of the ruble provokes a growing dollar. Investors are waiting for the release of statistics on the labor market in the US. But even if the figures turn out to be worse than forecast (which would mean a slowdown in the economy), this will not affect the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates this year. This will make American securities more profitable, increase the demand for dollars, and lead to an increase in its exchange rate, which will make the ruble fall in price even more.

Only the relatively stable state of the Russian economy, which is achieved due to the strong positions of the balance of payments and the strength of the country's largest companies, gives faith in the best. For the first time in seven years, Russia is running a budget surplus, and the public debt is at an extremely low level of 17% of GDP.

Today, the exchange rate of the domestic currency is growing against the dollar and the euro. As of 11:00 Moscow time, the American currency sank by 20 kopecks, the European one - by nine. You should not flatter yourself: this is just a correction after a long fall. Investors are buying up the ruble at a minimum, which may reverse the currency trend for a short time. But there are no fundamental factors that can help the ruble go up yet.

The dollar is preparing for a hard landing

Attempts by the US authorities to sharply lower the dollar exchange rate are taking concrete shape. Chinese Ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai said yesterday that during the trade talks, Washington proposed a deal to weaken the dollar against the yuan, modeled on the Plaza Accord agreement of the mid-80s.

The agreement at the Plaza Accord Hotel between the US, Japan, Britain and Germany marked the beginning of a major devaluation of the dollar against the Japanese yen and the German mark.

Beijing, according to the Chinese ambassador, rejected the proposal of Washington, calling the attempts of the American authorities to impose a currency deal "an illusion."

After the failure of the next round of trade negotiations between the US and China, the dollar exchange rate again turned to growth - the US currency index added about 0.5%, breaking through the level of 95.00.

However, many analysts are confident that the Trump administration will continue to pursue its obsession with a weakening dollar. Previously, several possible options were named - from the release of $ 189 billion in dollar cash to the market to targeted interventions in the foreign exchange market in relation to key currencies.

The ruble on Monday, however, may get some respite amid stabilization of the situation with the currencies of emerging markets. On Friday's inactive auctions, the dollar was noticeably declining against the ruble.

The official dollar exchange rate established by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as of September 3, 2018 is 68.04 rubles, the euro exchange rate is 79.4966 rubles.

80 per dollar: the fall of the ruble is inevitable

Experts believe less and less in the Russian national currency. Several reputable analysts have already predicted that by the end of the year the exchange rate will fall to 75 rubles per dollar, and even expensive oil will not help him. Why did the national currency, which recently stood quite firmly on conditional legs, start to fall in price so rapidly?

Analysts cite sanctions as the main reason. Despite the assurances of the Russian authorities that they do not have much influence on the economy, one of their prospects has led to the fact that the Russian currency has fallen in price by almost 10 rubles to the dollar since the beginning of the year.

And this is far from the limit. If the US Congress approves a tough version of the bill on sanctions against Russia, which prohibits US residents from making transactions with Russian government debt and state-owned banks, the ruble will fall in price by 12% compared to current values ​​and end the year at a rate of 76.7 rubles. per dollar. This is a negative scenario for the macroeconomic outlook, as outlined by BCS Chief Economist Vladimir Tikhomirov. He also argues that painful restrictive measures will cause an outflow of capital from the Russian market, which, in addition to increasing pressure on the ruble, will accelerate inflation. In the baseline forecast, which does not take into account the effect of potential sanctions, the ruble exchange rate by the end of the year will be 63.4 rubles. per dollar

Back in mid-August, Vladimir Miklashevsky, senior economist at Danske Bank, warned that by the end of the year the dollar could cost 73 rubles. In his opinion, without the threat of sanctions, the ruble could cost less than 60 per dollar. Moreover, since the beginning of 2018, the ruble price of oil has increased by 33%, from 3830 rubles. per barrel in early January to a record 5112 rubles. 24 August. But the above measures by the United States will lead to the fact that in a year the ratio of the ruble to the dollar may be fixed at the level of 75.1 to 1.

Even representatives of the financial authorities are beginning to lose optimism. Thus, the head of the Savings Bank of Russia, German Gref, said that in the short term, Western sanctions are not very sensitive for Russia. However, further restrictive measures will affect the Russian economy.

“The scale of sanctions is now such that in the short term we do not really feel them, but in the medium and long term they will affect both our economy and the global economy,” said the head of Sberbank.

Recall that the next package of anti-Russian sanctions for the so-called Skripal case was introduced on August 27. It implies the termination of the issuance of licenses to Russian state-owned companies for the export of weapons and dual-use products. The second part of the package may be activated in the fall and include a reduction in the level of diplomatic relations, a ban on Aeroflot flights to the United States, and a number of other measures. But the market is not afraid of this, but the bill of the US senators, which was submitted to Congress on August 14. Document S.3336, entitled “On Strengthening NATO, Combating International Cybercrime and Imposing Additional Sanctions on the Russian Federation,” proposes introducing new restrictions on the financial sector of the Russian Federation, up to freezing the property and operations of Russian state-owned banks in the United States.

Sanctions, however, are not the only reason for the weakness of the ruble. According to some economists, we are on the verge of a potential crisis in emerging markets, including Russia. Argentina is now suffering a financial disaster and is asking for urgent assistance from the IMF, while Turkey is practically in a pre-default state. Not in the best position of South Africa, where the mass flight of capital began. Even the currency of India is getting cheaper, despite the growth of the economy. As Vesti writes, under such conditions, "the mere desire of speculators to frolic in the foreign exchange market of a particular country can destroy the economy, and Russia is no exception here." So far, the situation is being saved by high oil prices, but if a correction begins, the crisis is almost inevitable.

“For Russia, a strong depreciation of the ruble will hardly be less painful than before, although in some positions, of course, it has become less vulnerable than in 2014. Then the devaluation looked like a catastrophe. Nevertheless, the country's economy still does not show any clear growth rates, and it is difficult to say when the stimulus measures will work and have the appropriate effect.

Associate Professor of the Department of Stock Markets and Financial Engineering of the RANEPA Sergey Khestanov believes that the most negative scenario is not very realistic, but if it does happen, the ruble may fall below 80 per dollar.

The choice of scenario depends on how severe the sanctions will be. Today, the ruble exchange rate is determined not so much by the economy as by the rhetoric around sanctions. Let me emphasize that it is rhetoric. Until measures are introduced, fluctuations in the exchange rate of the national currency cause statements by politicians. The fact that the ruble is most affected not by the economy, but by psychology, leads to the fact that the spread of forecasts is very large. In the optimistic scenario, the situation looks one way, and in the pessimistic scenario, it looks completely different.

In reality, the worst scenarios, as well as the best scenarios, rarely happen, usually it's some kind of middle option. But if you dream up and assess the prospects of the ruble as pessimistically as possible, you can also see the exchange rate in the region of 82. Now this seems like a fantasy, but if it really comes to a tough version of sanctions, this is quite real. Another issue is that the probability of this scenario being triggered is low.

It seems to me that we should at least wait until the US Congress returns from recess and see how it will work with the bill that was introduced into it before going on recess. This document contains a very tough clause on prohibiting Russian enterprises from using American debt in their calculations. If this clause is adopted in an unmitigated form, it will cause a rapid restructuring of a significant part of the Russian economy, which can easily bring the exchange rate to 80 rubles per dollar.

But, I repeat, in my opinion, the likelihood that this will happen is rather small. American sanctions sound menacing, but so far they are being introduced so as not to cause catastrophes. Even the sanctions against big businessmen, Vekselberg and Deripaska, which were adopted back in April, have not yet come into effect. They have been softened several times and still do not work.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is the preservation of the ruble near current levels, with the proviso that the development of the situation depends on the policy.

"SP": - What does the fact that rhetoric, and not economics, influence so strongly on the ruble say about the stability?

The fact is that quite stable currencies sometimes depend on psychology. This suggests that political tensions are so great that market participants make trading decisions by looking primarily at politics and not the trade balance or movement. Money. Unfortunately, the world is arranged in such a way that politics is unpredictable.

If we imagine that relations between Russia and the West suddenly soften, which is also unlikely, we can see a rate not very far from 50 rubles to the dollar. Because for the current oil prices, the values ​​of the ruble are completely different. But this is almost unbelievable, and as a result, the ruble exchange rate also includes the prospect of further development of sanctions. And this is not an economic issue.

"SP": - And if we talk about the economy, how big is the threat of a crisis in emerging markets for the ruble?

This is a complex question that cannot be answered in a nutshell. In short, the global economy is cyclical, and we are approaching another cycle. Many of you probably remember three such cycles. 1986-87 is a fairly severe crisis in developed countries. This is the crisis of 1997-1998, which ended in default for us. And I think everyone knows what happened in 2008. It is easy to guess that the time interval between these phenomena is 10-11 years. Adding this figure to 2008, we can conclude that another crisis is on the way. Emerging markets traditionally react more strongly to such events. Within a year or three, we can really see another world economic crisis which will affect us. If this happens, we will have to revise our forecasts for the ruble exchange rate downwards.

The head of the analytical department of Grand Capital, Sergei Kozlovsky, assesses the situation with restrained optimism and believes that expensive oil will support the Russian currency.

A dollar at 75 rubles is possible only with a significant collapse in oil prices to at least $50 per barrel with a simultaneous even greater deterioration in geopolitical tensions in conflicts in which Russia is involved in one way or another.

It should be noted that we do not consider such a scenario. As a maximum value, we will note 70 rubles per US dollar if the expected correction in the oil market drags on for at least a month. Of the most expected scenarios on our part - movement in the corridor of 67-69 rubles against the backdrop of the preservation of conflicting drivers for the ruble - on the one hand, strong oil, on the other - sanctions and rising inflation.

Expert opinion on whether to buy dollars in August 2018

Experts unanimously say that this is not the limit, and in the near future, 70 rubles will become the boundary of American money. Pessimistic forecasts say that by the end of this year, 100 rubles will be asked for 1 dollar. So it is worth buying foreign currency the sooner. This will make it possible to avoid financial losses.

Not only the strengthening of US economic sanctions, but also other factors put pressure on the national currency. For example, the low level of trading in the current month and the outflow of foreign investment have a noticeable effect.

Unfortunately, financial instability is always repulsive for those who are trying to capitalize on investing. Therefore, the Russian Federation in this period of time is not very attractive to investors. In the near future, the situation will worsen due to restrictions.

In this case, the national currency does not save even the fact that on August 22, oil finally rose in price and now a barrel costs $73. The reporting period passed unnoticed, which had always been felt before and led to at least a temporary stabilization of the ruble.

The dollar at the auction exceeded the level of 68 rubles for the first time in two years‍

The ruble at the beginning of trading on Monday continues to weaken against the major world currencies, remaining under pressure from sanctions risks.

The dollar exchange rate with settlements "tomorrow" at 10:06 Moscow time on Monday grew by 62 kopecks - up to 68.34 rubles, the euro - by 57 kopecks, up to 77.81 rubles, follows from the data of the Moscow Exchange.

At the opening of trading, the ruble exchange rate decreased against the dollar by 72 kopecks - to 68.44 rubles, against the euro - by 65 kopecks, to 77.9 rubles. Thus, the Russian currency remains at the lows since April of this year.

October futures for Brent crude oil is getting cheaper by 0.36% - up to $72.55 per barrel.

Experts predicted the exchange rate of the ruble after the meeting between Putin and Trump

Economists told what could happen to the ruble after the summit of US and Russian Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Helsinki. According to experts, the results of the meeting are unpredictable and it is difficult to make any predictions. But the very fact of the meeting is a good sign for the markets.

“In this regard, one should not expect any breakthrough decisions at the summit, therefore, long-term trends in connection with them, most likely, will not be formed either. At the same time, emotions and short-term moods will be enough. Russian markets will respond positively to the very fact that the meeting has taken place and the presidents are ready to talk to each other. Therefore, a surge in short-term volatility can be expected, ”RIA Novosti quotes Yegor Susin, head of the strategy development center at Gazprombank.

Economists also noted that the ruble is expected to maintain comfortable levels against the dollar and the euro during July. There are no prerequisites for new sanctions, which means we are in for a period of serenity.

In addition, experts said that while the potential for strengthening the ruble is seen in the zone from 61.45 to 61.60 per dollar.

The dollar was predicted crazy growth

By autumn, the American currency will grow to 70 rubles
The ruble continues to be relatively stable. But by autumn, the dollar will rise sharply and overcome the mark of 70 rubles. The main factor in the fall of the national currency will be a decrease in buyers' interest in Russian securities and trade wars with the participation of the United States.

In yesterday's trading on the Moscow Exchange, the dollar and the euro moved synchronously, but in different directions. The American currency has fallen in price by 12 kopecks, to 63.11 rubles, and the European currency has risen in price by the same amount and now costs 73.79 rubles.

The weakening of the national currency against the euro continued throughout the week. It is connected with the strengthening of the "European" to the basket of currencies after the leaders of the EU reached a new migration agreement. This trend will continue for some time.

With the dollar, the situation is more complicated. The ruble is strengthening against the US currency due to its general weakening in the foreign exchange market and the growth of oil prices. North Sea benchmark Brent is currently trading above $78/bbl, not far from the recent high of $79.3/bbl. Oil futures retain medium-term growth potential. High oil prices will continue to support the Russian currency, but if it decreases, the impact of oil prices will weaken.

At the same time, negative factors also affect the ruble. First, exporters are very restrained in the foreign exchange market (that is, they do not buy rubles) after the end of the tax payment period. Secondly, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation continues to stifle the domestic currency with interventions: the excess income from the sale of oil is converted into dollars and set aside for a rainy day.

Perhaps the greatest danger to the ruble and other currencies of developing countries is fraught with trade wars.

“The focus of market participants remains the topic of US trade relations with other countries, as well as the publication of a report on the US labor market. On Friday, the US will impose tariffs on goods imported from China. Chinese customs warned of retaliation. The new Chinese tariffs on US products will come into effect as soon as Washington's tariffs go into effect. The trade war will have a negative impact on risky assets and the ruble,” says Vladislav Antonov, an analyst at Alpari.

This will lead to the fact that in the very near future the ruble will begin a protracted fall, which will last no one knows how long. As a result, by autumn the dollar exchange rate may reach 70 rubles, and the euro - 77 rubles.

“In the medium term, against the background of a seasonal decline in current account indicators (exports and imports of goods and services, net investment income and net transfer payments), the conversion of dividends paid by Russian corporations and a decrease in interest on the part of non-residents in Russian government bonds exchange rates will strive to overcome the upper limits of the ranges,” explained Alexander Egorov, currency strategist at TeleTrade Group.

The dollar will rise thanks to the war

Washington's protectionist measures will lead to the strengthening of the "green"
The trade wars that the United States is unleashing around the world will strengthen the dollar and deal a devastating blow to the currencies of developing countries. Among others, the ruble will also suffer. The Russian currency may go beyond the corridor and depreciate significantly.

The day before, during trading on the Moscow Exchange, the ruble slipped 9 kopecks against the dollar and 6 kopecks against the euro. Now a unit of American currency costs 63.24 rubles, European - 73.66. "Rossiyanin" is in a fairly stable position, but it will gradually lose ground under the influence of news from the United States, experts say.

The aggravation of trade relations between the US, China, the EU and a number of other countries has a negative impact on world markets. Investors are provoked to sell risky assets, and in emerging markets this primarily leads to a weakening of national currencies, says Alfa Capital analyst Daria Zhelannova.

Andrey Kochetkov, a leading analyst at Otkritie Broker, agrees with her. According to him, trade wars are accompanied by currency wars, so the main risk for the ruble comes from this area.

Trade restrictions may come into force as early as tomorrow. So the ruble may start falling at the end of the week. “New U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports will go into effect on Friday. China may announce retaliatory measures tomorrow, which will negatively affect the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate,” notes Vladislav Antonov, an analyst at Alpari.

Another powerful factor of pressure on the ruble is the foreign exchange intervention of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. In the summer, fewer funds circulate on the market, but the department does not reduce the volume of purchases of dollars and euros. This leads to the fact that the ruble feels extremely insecure.

On the eve of the Ministry of Finance announced that in July it acquired foreign monetary units for a total amount of 347.7 billion rubles. This is less than the June record of 379.7 billion rubles, but more than the May figure of 322.8 billion rubles.

The cost of oil remains a reliable support for the ruble. Now black gold is trading near $78 per barrel of Brent mixture: prices are supported by data on reducing oil inventories in the US, as well as OPEC's decision to increase quotas by a slightly lower volume than the market expected.

“Recent news about the blocking of ports in Libya and the reduction in production in Iran due to US sanctions also do not allow black gold quotes to decline. High oil prices provide significant support to the ruble exchange rate,” notes Daria Zhelannova.

Since mid-April, the dollar has been in the range of 61-64 rubles. It is unlikely that he will cross these borders in the coming days. But as the ruble gradually weakens, the barrier will be overcome. The decline in the value of the Russian currency will continue until the end of the month, when the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve System will take place. It may decide to ease monetary policy, which will lead to a weakening of the dollar.

The ruble is growing against the euro June 28

At the opening of trading, the ruble is declining against the dollar and growing against the euro. This is evidenced by the data of the Moscow Exchange.

The dollar exchange rate increased by 9 kopecks - up to 63.32 rubles.

The euro exchange rate fell by 7 kopecks, amounting to 73.04 rubles.

Dollar exchange rate: the ruble was not allowed to strengthen to 50

The dollar was declining against the ruble on Tuesday, despite the strengthening on world markets. Against the backdrop of a decrease in tension on world markets, the ruble is in the wake of oil prices, which have shown high volatility in recent days in anticipation of an unpredictable OPEC+ summit.

The US dollar exchange rate was 63.46 rubles at 19:00 Moscow time, which is 42 kopecks lower than the closing level of previous trading. The euro cost 73.56 rubles, dropping by 46.5 kopecks.

Meanwhile, the Russian authorities claim that the dependence of the ruble exchange rate on oil prices has been minimized with the help of foreign exchange interventions by the Ministry of Finance. Otherwise, the dollar exchange rate would be at current prices at the level of 50 rubles per dollar. This was stated by First Deputy Prime Minister, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, speaking on Wednesday at the government hour in the Federation Council.

“Of course, the ruble would be stronger. But in the event of a decline in the price of oil, we would have a reverse roll. Such volatility, such unpredictability, of course, hits entrepreneurs,” the head of the Ministry of Finance added.

The official dollar exchange rate established by the Bank of Russia as of June 21, 2018 is 63.61 rubles, the euro exchange rate for today is 73.61 rubles. On Thursday, the ruble exchange rate may be supported by the news that a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Donald Trump may take place in the coming weeks.

Currency shift: for the first time since the beginning of May, the US dollar exchange rate reached 64 rubles

On Tuesday, June 19, the US dollar exchange rate - for the first time since the beginning of May - rose above 64 rubles. The instability of oil prices in recent days, as well as the weakening of the government bond market, have a negative impact on the dynamics of the Russian currency. At the same time, one of the main reasons for the depreciation of the ruble, analysts say, is the flaring trade war between the United States and China. Both countries have already decided to exchange tariff restrictions and have announced their readiness to introduce new duties. Against this background, investors are actively withdrawing funds from the assets of emerging markets.

On Tuesday, June 19, the opening of trading on the Moscow Exchange was marked by a record depreciation of the Russian currency over the past month and a half. Thus, the US dollar exchange rate - for the first time since May 2 - overcame the mark of 64 rubles.

The official rate of the Central Bank of Russia on June 20 was 64.06 rubles per dollar and 74.18 rubles per euro.

One of the reasons for the weakening of the national currency was the active exit of investors from the Russian public debt after the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank at the end of last week. Recall that on June 15, the regulator, as expected by market players, kept the key rate at 7.25% per annum, but at the same time somewhat tightened its rhetoric due to a possible acceleration of inflation.

“The federal loan bond market (OFZ) has been undergoing a fairly strong sell-off for the fourth day. The somewhat extraordinary decision of the Central Bank to temporarily freeze the rate on current levels and so far avoiding its further decline against the backdrop of inflationary risks has deprived the market of the potential for further growth, ”Ivan Manaenko, head of the analytical department of Veles Capital investment company, explained to RT.

According to the expert, investors were also influenced by the comment of the head of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina. The Chairman of the Central Bank admitted the possibility of raising the rate in the event of a sharp increase in inflationary risks, although such a decision is not yet included in the base scenario of the regulator.

Against this background, already on June 19, the yield on ten-year Russian government bonds (for the first time since April 2017) rose to 7.96%. Recall that the growth of OFZ yields means a fall in the value of bonds and, as a result, has a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate.

The dollar and the euro show different dynamics in trading on Monday

The dollar exchange rate today, on the morning of June 18, at the opening of the Moscow Exchange is 63.3 rubles. Compared to the closing of the previous trading, the price of the dollar rose by 11 kopecks.

In turn, the euro exchange rate on Monday morning lost 6 kopecks in price, its rate at 10 am is 73.3 rubles.

On the morning of June 18, the main Russian indices are trading in the red zone: the Moscow Exchange Index rose by 0.2% compared to the close of trading, to the mark of 22532.4 points, and the RTS index fell by 0.4% and amounted to 1112.42 points.

The verdict on the dollar

The dollar continues to decline on Thursday in anticipation of trade talks between the leaders of the G7 countries. The dollar index by 9.17 Moscow time was 93.43, which is about one point less than the peaks reached last week. According to analysts, if the summit does not yield results, the dollar exchange rate will most likely move to a downward trend.

Meanwhile, 35 out of 60 analysts (more than 60%) polled by Reuters predict that the dollar will continue to strengthen for about three more months. 10 experts expect this trend to end within a month.

Other analysts believe that the strengthening of the dollar will last more than six months.

“We believe it is premature to crown the dollar and extrapolate its strength into the second half of the year,” said Daniel Hui, executive director of global FX strategy at JP Morgan.

Normalization of central bank policy remains a key agenda for this year, the analyst explains.

Betting on a weak dollar in most early 2018 forecasts was based on the deteriorating US financial position despite higher interest rates. However, an unexpected seven-week growth followed.

However, the Fed's rate hike has already been fully won back by the dollar. The prospects for the monetary policy of other central banks are again coming to the fore.

The euro climbed to a 10-day high against the dollar on Wednesday after European chief economist central bank Peter Preet said that at the meeting on June 14 there will be a discussion on the rollback of quantitative easing.

The ECB is expected to stop buying bonds worth tens of billions of euros a month by December.

The euro fell to a 10-month low against the dollar last week amid turmoil in Italian politics and signs of a slowdown in the eurozone economy, which called into question the plans of the ECB to tighten monetary policy.

Published on 27.03.16 19:07 vid_roll_width="300px" vid_roll_height="150px">

The euro exchange rate set by the Bank of Russia for tomorrow fell by 52.86 kopecks compared to Friday and amounted to 76.40 rubles, while the dollar exchange rate on March 28, 2016 fell by 49.82 kopecks, to 68.43 rubles.

Dollar exchange rate forecast 2016: expert opinion

So far, everything is going well for the Russian currency. say financial analysts. Until mid-April, speculators will be waiting for a meeting of oil exporting countries in Qatar. The calculation is done intkbbee that a decision will be made there to freeze (or even reduce) production. This is a very good driver for the cost of oil, after which our currency may also grow.

Secondly, on the side of the ruble and the seasonal factor. If you look at the statistics for last year, then the Russian currency strengthened until about the end of May, and then fell until December. Oil then also grew. In addition, the strengthening is associated with a series of tax payments that fall on this period.

Be that as it may, according to many experts, this spring the dollar may well fall to 60-63 rubles.

Nevertheless, the position of the ruble may be negatively affected by the policy of the Central Bank. For example, if he not only lowers the key rate (now - 11% per annum), but also starts to buy more actively currency to replenish reserves. For example, over the past week, the Central Bank increased the volume of reserves by almost $6 billion - up to $387 billion.

Central Bank dollar exchange rate

This page shows the official dollar exchange rate, which was set by the Central Bank Russian Federation. Also, for your convenience, there are graphs of the exchange rate dynamics according to the Central Bank and changes by date.

The data is updated every minute.

Recall that the US dollar (usd) is accepted in almost all countries.

By subscribing to updates, you can always follow the official dollar exchange rate in the Central Bank online and track monthly adjustments. Information from the Central Bank will be of interest to citizens of various categories: businessmen, investors, business owners.

One of the ways to make money on the difference in the dollar exchange rate is trading on the Forex currency market, which requires training and serious experience, as well as the installation of special software. You can get a significant profit by playing on the difference in the dollar exchange rate only if a fairly large amount is put into circulation. sum of money. The risks of such operations are very high, it is worth thinking seriously before diving into the abyss of currency speculation.

Why is it impossible to make payments in dollars in Russia?

There are certain types of settlements that are allowed to be carried out on the territory of Russia in dollars, but for the most part they relate to legal entities.

In order to increase the level of economic development and international prestige, Russia is interested in ensuring the stability of its national currency, so transactions with dollars are limited.

The ruble is in for a lot of surprises..

Current exchange rate: USD 57.17 EUR 71.26 oil 69.59

The dollar exchange rate for today, March 27, 2018: what will help the ruble exchange rate, experts said

The official dollar exchange rate established by the Bank of Russia as of March 28, 2018 is 57.17 rubles, the euro exchange rate for today is 71.26 rubles.

The dollar exchange rate in Sberbank today is set at 55.98 rubles. upon purchase and 59.10 rubles. when sold by a bank, the euro exchange rate on March 28, 2018 is 69.55 rubles. and 73.05 rubles. when buying and selling by Sberbank, respectively.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for the week of 2018 in Russia: expert opinion

Head of Operations in Russian stock market IC "Freedom Finance" Georgy Vashchenko predicts the opening of trading on the Moscow Exchange in the range of 57-57.50 rubles for the dollar, for the euro - 70.75-71.25 rubles. In the morning, there is no publication of important macro statistics and no events are expected that can provoke strong fluctuations in pairs.

According to the expert, the main driving factor will be the technical picture and the tax period that has begun in Russia - on March 28, income tax is paid in Russia. If the price of oil stays above $70 per barrel of Brent, then we can expect that the USD/RUB pair will trade in the range of 57-57.50 rubles.

The euro exchange rate has shown growth against the dollar in recent days, and speaking of this currency, the specialist focuses on the euro exchange rate in the corridor of 71-72 rubles.

“By the evening, the dollar-ruble pair will most likely close at around 57.50. The impact of tax payments will be noticeable during the day, and by the evening external events will put pressure on the markets,” Vashchenko said, noting that he expects the euro-ruble pair to close in the range of 71.50-72. His words are quoted by Rossiyskaya Gazeta.

The rise of the dollar against major currencies turned out to be short-lived, as Expert Online analysts expected. As soon as a new portion of negative news for the US currency appeared, the dollar immediately began to fall significantly.

The dollar fell on Wednesday by 0.6% against the yen to 105.45, dropping to a 16-month low. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar lost 0.4%, falling to 0.9368 francs, the euro rose to 1.2420 dollars.

Against a basket of major currencies, the dollar lost 0.50 points reaching a local peak on Tuesday - on Wednesday, the dollar is trading at 89.42.

Trouble for the dollar began on Tuesday. News about the normalization of the situation on the Korean Peninsula and the prospects for a Korean dialogue have sharply reduced investor interest in safe-haven assets, which include the US currency.

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A new impetus for the depreciation of the dollar was the resignation of Trump's economic adviser Gary Cohn. The official, who was called a "Wall Street protege," decided to leave his post amid the decision of the American president to impose economic duties on steel and aluminum imports to the United States. Trump's decision did not find support among American allies and in the Republican Party. At the same time, Kohn's resignation sharply increased the fears of the markets about the start of a US trade war with a number of countries, including Washington's allies.

And finally, Market Watch names another more fundamental reason for the decline in investor interest in the dollar. According to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, quoted by the publication, hedging dollar assets, especially in the euro and yen, is becoming more and more expensive amid the prospect of normalizing the monetary policy of world central banks. Another reason for the decline in interest in the dollar is the repatriation of American capital due to Trump's tax reform. The fact is that American corporations were one of the key buyers of US government bonds, now this need will be significantly reduced.

The official dollar exchange rate established by the Bank of Russia as of March 7, 2018 is 56.5041 rubles. The euro exchange rate for today is 69.7317 rubles.