Concept of population reproduction

Topic 11. Population reproduction

The main feature of the population is that, despite constant changes in its size and structure, it remains as a population, i.e. as a self-reproducing collection of people . One can even say that the population self-preserves, remains itself precisely and exclusively thanks to these continuous changes.

This process of self-preservation of the population in the course of its continuous changes is called population reproduction, and it is this process that forms the subject of demography as a science.

Population reproduction- this is a constant renewal of the number and structure of the population in the process of changing generations of people, through births and deaths. The set of parameters that determine this process is called population reproduction regime.

The parameters that determine population reproduction are fertility and mortality, presented in the form of their own indicators, as well as the number of arrivals and the number of departures1.

Typically, population reproduction is considered not as a whole, but in relation to any one sex, most often female. The choice of the female population is due to the following factors:

· the reproductive period of women is shorter than that of men;

· the basic parameters of female reproduction (the number of children born to a woman, her age at their birth, etc.) are much more accessible than similar characteristics for men, especially with regard to out-of-wedlock births.

The role of age as a universal independent variable in demographic analysis and its constant change (every person inevitably either dies or becomes older, i.e., more strictly speaking, moves to another age group) determine that in the analysis of population reproduction much attention is paid to age , studying this process across age groups.

Population reproduction indicators refer to a real or hypothetical cohort (generation), i.e. are essentially cohort.

If certain gender- and age-differentiated fertility and mortality rates are given, as well as a secondary sex ratio, which is a universal biological constant and is equal to approximately 105-106 live births of boys per 100 live births of girls, then this completely determines the reproduction of the population and its age-sex structure. It is the totality of these parameters that is meant when speaking about the population reproduction regime.

Since the reproduction of the female population is usually studied, the whole question comes down to considering the age-specific mortality of women and the frequency of births of girls among women of different ages.

Mortality is typically measured using the survival-to-age function X years, i.e. using the function . In practice, they use the numbers of people surviving to age X years from complete mortality tables of the female population. A general characteristic of female mortality is the average life expectancy of a newborn, i.e. .

Gross population reproduction rate- this is the number of girls that on average each woman will give birth to during her entire reproductive period. When calculating the gross coefficient, it is assumed that there is no mortality among women until the end of their reproductive years.

The gross population reproduction rate is equal to the total fertility rate multiplied by this proportion of girls among newborns:

Where R- gross reproduction rate; TVR - total fertility rate; ASVR x - age-specific fertility rates; - the proportion of girls among newborns.

In Russia, the average value of the proportion of girls among newborns over the past 40 years was approximately 0.487.

As can be seen from the calculation formula, the gross population reproduction rate is the total fertility rate adjusted for the secondary sex ratio.

The gross population reproduction rate can be interpreted in different ways:

· as an age-standardized birth rate;

· as the average number of daughters that a group of women who began life at the same time could give birth to if they all lived to the end of their childbearing period;

· as the ratio between the number of women of one generation, for example, at the age of 15 years, to the number of their daughters at the same age, provided that there is no mortality within the childbearing period;

· as the ratio between female births in two successive generations, assuming that no one dies between the beginning and end of the reproductive period.

The last three definitions are usually used when talking about real cohorts.

As for the frequency of births of girls among women of different ages, then, generally speaking, it is different. However, it would not be a big mistake to assume that the proportion of girls among births is the same for all ages and is approximately 0.487-0.488. From here we can obtain a summary characteristic of the female population, which is gross coefficient vospopulation production-number of girls, which on averageEvery woman lives during her entire reproductive period. When calculating the gross coefficient, it is assumed that there is no mortality among women until the end of their reproductive years.

The gross population reproduction rate is equal to the total fertility rate multiplied by this proportion of girls among newborns:

Where R - gross reproduction rate, TFR - total fertility rate, ASFR X - age-specific birth rates, Δ - the proportion of girls among newborns.

In our country, the average value of the proportion of girls among newborns over the past 40 years was approximately 0.487 (the minimum value for these years was approximately 0.485 and the maximum was 0.489. See also Chapter 3). If the calculation is carried out at five-year intervals, and data of this kind are usually available, then the formula for calculating the gross reproduction rate is as follows:

As you can see, the gross population reproduction rate is the total fertility rate adjusted for the secondary sex ratio.

In 1999, the gross coefficient in our country was only 0.570, which means it decreased more than twofold over the period from 1960 to 1999.

The gross population reproduction rate...can be interpreted in various ways: firstly, as an age-standardized fertility rate...; secondly, as the average number of daughters that a group of women who began life at the same time could give birth to if they all lived to the end of their childbearing period; thirdly, as the ratio between the number of women of one generation, for example, at the age of 15 years, to the number of their daughters at the same age, provided that there is no mortality within the childbearing period; fourthly, as the ratio between female births in two successive generations, assuming that no one dies between the beginning and end of the reproductive period. The last three definitions are usually used when talking about real cohorts, but any of these interpretations can be used regardless of whether the gross reproduction rate is calculated for a hypothetical generation or for a real one. Shryock H.S., Sigel J.S. The Methods and Materials of Demography. N.Y., San Francisco, London, 1973. P. 3/5.

Net population reproduction rate

However, if each of the women of reproductive age gives birth on average R daughters, this does not mean that the number of daughters’ generation will be in R times more or less than the size of the mothers' generation. After all, not all of these daughters will live to reach the age their mothers were at the time of birth. And not all daughters will survive to the end of their reproductive period. This is especially true for countries with high mortality, where up to half of newborn girls may not survive to the beginning of the reproductive period, as was the case, for example, in Russia before the First World War 2 . Nowadays, of course, this no longer exists (in 1997, almost 98% of newborn girls survived to the beginning of the reproductive period, but in any case), an indicator is needed that also takes into account mortality. Given the assumption of zero mortality until the end of the reproductive period, the gross population reproduction rate has recently been practically not published or used.

An indicator that also takes into account mortality is No then is the population reproduction rate, or otherwise, coefficient Physician Beck-Kuczynski . Otherwise it is called the net population replacement rate. It is equal to the average number of girls born to a woman in her lifetime and surviving to the end of her reproductive period, given the birth and death rates. The net population reproduction rate is calculated using the following approximate formula (for data for five-year age groups):

where all the notations are the same as in the formula for the gross coefficient, a 5 L x f And l 0 - respectively, the number of people living in the age interval (x+5) years from the female mortality table. The formula for calculating the net reproduction rate of the population uses the number of people living at the age interval (x+n) years from the female mortality table, and not a function of survival, i.e., not the number of people surviving until it begins (l x ), because this is an approximate formula. In strict demostatistical analysis and mathematical applications of demography, it is the survival function that is used 1(x).

Despite its somewhat “threatening” appearance, this formula is quite simple and allows you to calculate the net reproduction rate without much difficulty, especially using appropriate software, such as Excel spreadsheets. In addition, many programs have been developed that allow the calculation of the net coefficient to be reduced to simple input of initial data. For example, the International Program Center of the US Bureau of Census (IPC of U.S. Bureau of the Census) has developed a system of spreadsheets PAS (Population Spreadsheets Analysis), one of which (SP) based on data on the values ​​of age-specific fertility rates and the number of people living in the age interval (x+n) years calculates gross and net reproduction rates, as well as the true rate of natural increase and generation length, which will be discussed below 3.

In table 7.1 shows an example of calculating the age-specific birth rate, gross and net population reproduction rates, in which the above software is not used. Using this example, as well as a similar example given in the textbook by V.A. Borisov 4, you can easily learn to calculate all the main indicators of population reproduction. But, of course, it is advisable to have at least some computer equipment; it is best, of course, to use Excel.

The calculation was carried out according to the following step-by-step procedure:

Step 1. In column 2 we enter the values ​​of age-specific birth rates ( 5 ASFR X , taken in this case from the Demographic Yearbook of the Russian Federation for 1999 (p. 155**).

Step 2. We calculate the total fertility rate (TFR). For this number in the lines of column 2, we divide by 1000 in order to express age-specific fertility rates in relative fractions of 1 (in other words, we reduce these values ​​to 1 woman of a conditional generation). We enter the resulting quotients in column 3. The sum of these numbers, multiplied by 5, gives us the value of the total fertility rate equal to 1.2415 (highlighted bold italic). This, up to the third decimal place, coincides with the official data of the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation (1.242. WITH. 90).

Step 3. We calculate the gross reproduction rate (TO), or the number of daughters born to a woman during her lifetime. To do this, we multiply the data in column 3 line by line by the share of girls among newbornsIn this case, its average value for the period 1960-1998 was taken equal to 0.487172971301046. The sum of the numbers in column 4, multiplied by 5, gives the gross reproduction rate equal to 0.6048. The same result can be obtained by simply multiplying the total fertility rate by the proportion of girls among newborns (1.2415 0.487... = 0.6048).

Step 4. In column 5 we enter the values ​​of the numbers living at each age interval (x + 5 years (x = 15, 20,..., 45) from the mortality table for the female population of Russia for 1998. In column 6, these numbers are given as relative fractions of a unit by dividing them by the root of the mortality table (in this case, per 10,000). An alternative way is to average two adjacent values ​​of the numbers surviving to the beginning of each age interval from 15 to 50 years from the mortality table for the female population for 1998 (p. 188). Multiplying the resulting averages by 5, we determine the number of people living at each age interval necessary for the calculation.

Step 5. We calculate the net reproduction rate. To do this, we multiply the data in column 4 line by line by the numbers in column 6. Summing up column 7, we obtain a net reproduction rate equal to 0.583. This value differs only by 0.002 from that officially published by the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation (0.585, p. 114 of the Demographic Yearbook for 1999).

The net reproduction rate is calculated for a conditional generation. As a measure of the replacement of the maternal generation by the generation of daughters, it is valid only for the so-called stable population, in which the reproduction regime does not change, i.e. birth rate and death rate. The size of such a population changes (i.e. increases or decreases) in R 0 once in a while T, called average generation length.

Calculation of indicators of population reproduction in Russia for 1998 5

Table 7.1

Gross population reproduction rate

As for the frequency of births of girls among women of different ages, then, generally speaking, it is different. However, it would not be a big mistake to assume that the proportion of girls among births is the same for all ages and is approximately 0.487-0.488. From here you can get a summary characteristic of the fertility of the female population, which is gross population reproduction rate- the number of girls that on average each woman will give birth to during her entire reproductive period. When calculating the gross coefficient, it is assumed that there is no mortality among women until the end of their reproductive years.

The gross population reproduction rate is equal to the total fertility rate multiplied by this proportion of girls among newborns:

Where R- gross reproduction rate, TFR- total fertility rate, ASFR X- age-specific birth rates, Δ - the proportion of girls among newborns.

In our country, the average value of the share of girls among newborns over the past 40 years has been approximately 0.487 (with a minimum value over these years of approximately 0.485 and a maximum of 0.489. See also Chapter 3). If the calculation is carried out at five-year intervals, and data of this kind are usually available, then the formula for calculating the gross reproduction rate is as follows:

As you can see, the gross population reproduction rate is the total fertility rate adjusted for the secondary sex ratio.

In 1999, the gross coefficient in our country was only 0.570, which means it decreased more than twofold over the period from 1960 to 1999.

The gross population reproduction rate...can be interpreted in various ways: firstly, as an age-standardized fertility rate...; secondly, as the average number of daughters that a group of women who began life at the same time could give birth to if they all lived to the end of their childbearing period; thirdly, as the ratio between the number of women of one generation, for example, at the age of 15 years, to the number of their daughters at the same age, provided that there is no mortality within the childbearing period; fourthly, as the ratio between female births in two successive generations, assuming that no one dies between the beginning and end of the reproductive period. The last three definitions are usually used when talking about real cohorts, but any of these interpretations can be used regardless of whether the gross reproduction rate is calculated for a hypothetical generation or for a real one. Shryock H.S., Sigel J.S. The Methods and Materials of Demography. N.Y., San Francisco, London, 1973. P. 3/5.

However, if each of the women of reproductive age gives birth on average R daughters, this does not mean that the number of daughters’ generation will be in R times more or less than the size of the mothers' generation. After all, not all of these daughters will live to reach the age their mothers were at the time of birth. And not all daughters will survive to the end of their reproductive period. This is especially true for countries with high mortality, where up to half of newborn girls may not survive to the beginning of the reproductive period, as was the case, for example, in Russia before the First World War 2 . Nowadays, of course, this no longer exists (in 1997, almost 98% of newborn girls survived to the beginning of the reproductive period, but in any case), an indicator is needed that also takes into account mortality. Given the assumption of zero mortality until the end of the reproductive period, the gross population reproduction rate has recently been practically not published or used.

An indicator that also takes into account mortality is net population reproduction rate, or otherwise, Beck-Kuczynski coefficient . Otherwise it is called the net population replacement rate. It is equal to the average number of girls born to a woman in her lifetime and surviving to the end of her reproductive period, given the birth and death rates. The net population reproduction rate is calculated using the following approximate formula (for data for five-year age groups):

where all the notations are the same as in the formula for the gross coefficient, a 5 L x f And l 0 - respectively, the number of people living in the age interval (x+5) years from the female mortality table. The formula for calculating the net reproduction rate of the population uses the number of people living at the age interval (x+n) years from the female mortality table, and not a function of survival, i.e., not the number of people surviving until it begins (l x), because this is an approximate formula. In rigorous demostatistical analysis and mathematical applications of demography, it is the survival function that is used 1(x).

Despite its somewhat “threatening” appearance, this formula is quite simple and allows you to calculate the net reproduction rate without much difficulty, especially using appropriate software, such as Excel spreadsheets. In addition, many programs have been developed that allow you to reduce the calculation of the net coefficient to simply entering the initial data. For example, the International Program Center of the U.S. Bureau of the Census (IPC of U.S. Bureau of the Census) has developed a system of electronic tables PAS (Population Spreadsheets Analysis), one of which (SP) is based on data on the values ​​of age-specific fertility rates and the number of people living in the age interval (x+n) years calculates gross and net reproduction rates, as well as the true rate of natural increase and generation length, which will be discussed below 3.

In table 7.1 shows an example of calculating the age-specific birth rate, gross and net population reproduction rates, in which the above software is not used. Using this example, as well as a similar example given in the textbook by V.A. Borisov 4, you can easily learn to calculate all the main indicators of population reproduction. But, of course, it is advisable to have at least some computer equipment; it is best, of course, to use Excel.

The calculation was carried out according to the following step-by-step procedure:

Step 1. In column 2 we enter the values ​​of age-specific birth rates (5 ASFR X, taken in this case from the Demographic Yearbook of the Russian Federation for 1999 (p. 155**).

Step 2. We calculate the total fertility rate (TFR). For this number in the lines of column 2, we divide by 1000 in order to express age-specific fertility rates in relative fractions of 1 (in other words, we reduce these values ​​to 1 woman of a conditional generation). We enter the resulting quotients in column 3. The sum of these numbers, multiplied by 5, gives us the value of the total fertility rate equal to 1.2415 (highlighted bold italic). This, up to the third decimal place, coincides with the official data of the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation (1.242. WITH. 90).

Step 3. We calculate the gross reproduction rate (TO), or the number of daughters born to a woman during her lifetime. To do this, we multiply the data in column 3 line by line by the share of girls among newborns (D). In this case, its average value for the period 1960-1998 was taken equal to 0.487172971301046. The sum of the numbers in column 4, multiplied by 5, gives the gross reproduction rate equal to 0.6048. The same result can be obtained by simply multiplying the total fertility rate by the proportion of girls among newborns (1.2415 0.487... = 0.6048).

Step 4. In column 5 we enter the values ​​of the numbers living at each age interval (x + 5 years (x = 15, 20,..., 45) from the mortality table for the female population of Russia for 1998. In column 6, these numbers are reduced to relative fractions of a unit by dividing them by the root of the mortality table (in this case, by 10,000). An alternative way is to average two adjacent values ​​of the numbers surviving to the beginning of each age interval from 15 to 50 years from the mortality table for the female population for 1998 (p. 188). Multiplying the resulting averages by 5, we determine the number of people living at each age interval necessary for the calculation.

Step 5. We calculate the net reproduction rate. To do this, we multiply the data in column 4 line by line by the numbers in column 6. Summing up column 7, we obtain a net reproduction rate equal to 0.583. This value differs only by 0.002 from that officially published by the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation (0.585, p. 114 of the Demographic Yearbook for 1999).

The net reproduction rate is calculated for a conditional generation. As a measure of the replacement of the maternal generation by the generation of daughters, it is valid only for the so-called stable population, in which the reproduction regime does not change, i.e. birth rate and death rate. The size of such a population changes (i.e. increases or decreases) in R0 once in a while T, called average generation length.

Calculation of indicators of population reproduction in Russia for 1998 5

2. Population reproduction indicators: total fertility rate, gross reproduction rate, net reproduction rate

To obtain a real idea of ​​the nature of population reproduction, indicators are needed that do not depend on the age-sex structure. In the early 1930s. German demographer, economist, statistician R. Kuchinsky (1876-1947) and domestic scientist, demographer, health care organizer G.A. Batkis (1895-1960) used indicators that give a clear picture of the state of the numbers of the new and old generations in the years adjacent to the years of population censuses, helping to determine the extent to which the living population has prepared for its replacement:

Total fertility rate;

Gross reproduction rate;

Net reproduction rate.

The total fertility rate shows the number of children born on average to one woman during the entire fertile period of her life (i.e. from 15 to 49 years inclusive). It is calculated like this:

where n x is the age-specific fertility rate for women aged x years.

The calculation can also be performed for five-year intervals:

and for 10 year olds:

An example of calculating the total fertility rate is given in table. 1.

Table 1. Calculation of the total fertility rate for the rural population of the Novosibirsk region, 1999

Mother's age, years	Age-specific birth rate average per year, %	"Expected" number of children for the entire age interval

As follows from the table. 1, over the entire fertile period, each 1000 rural women in the Novosibirsk region will give birth to 1404 (1403.5) children, i.e. 1.414 on average per woman or rounded 140 children per 100 women.

The total fertility rate as an indicator of population reproduction is not without its shortcomings. Thus, he does not take into account: firstly, that the reproduction of a new generation can be characterized by the number of girls that each woman leaves behind; secondly, that some children die before reaching the age of the mother at the time of their birth, leaving no offspring or leaving a smaller number of children compared to their peers who successfully survived to the end of their childbearing period.

The first drawback can be eliminated using the gross reproduction rate R b, calculated by the formula

where d is the proportion of girls among births.

For the example given in table. 1, and at d - 0.488

R b =1.4035 0.488 = 0.6849.

Consequently, every 1000 women leaves behind 685 girls (684.9), i.e. In the rural population of the region, even simple reproduction is not carried out.

The advantage of the gross coefficient is that its value is not affected by the composition of the population by gender and that it takes into account the age composition of women of fertile age. However, it does not take into account the mortality of women of fertile age.

For the most accurate characterization of population reproduction, the net coefficient is used. In the statistical literature it is called pure or purified. It shows the number of girls that each woman leaves behind on average, taking into account the fact that some of them will not live to reach the age of their mother at the time of their birth.

However, if each of the women of reproductive age gives birth to R daughters on average, this does not mean that the size of the daughters’ generation will be R times greater or less than the size of the mothers’ generation. After all, not all of these daughters will live to reach the age their mothers were at the time of birth. And not all daughters will survive to the end of their reproductive period. This is especially true for countries with high mortality, where up to half of newborn girls may not survive to the beginning of the reproductive period, as was the case, for example, in Russia before the First World War. Nowadays, of course, this is no longer the case (in 2004, more than 98% of newborn girls survived to the beginning of the reproductive period), but in any case, an indicator is needed that also takes into account mortality. Given the assumption of zero mortality until the end of the reproductive period, the gross population reproduction rate has recently been practically not published or used. An indicator that also takes into account mortality is the net population reproduction rate, or otherwise the Böck-Kuczynski coefficient, proposed by the German statistician and demographer G.F.R. Byök. Otherwise it is called the net population replacement rate. It is equal to the average number of girls born to a woman in her entire life and surviving to the end of the reproductive period, at given levels of fertility and mortality.

To calculate the net coefficient Rn, the following formulas are used:

a) for one-year age groups:

,

where n x - age coefficients for women of age group X years; d is the proportion of girls among births;

The average number of living women in the stationary population of life tables in the age interval from X to X+ 1;

b) for five-year age groups:

R b =

where are age-specific fertility rates for women in the age group from X to X + 4;

The average number of living women from life tables in the age range from X to X+4 (+ +1 + +2 + +3 + +4);

c) for ten-year age groups:

R b = ,

where are age-specific birth rates for women in the age group from X to X + 9;

The average number of living women in a hospital population survives in the age interval from x to x + 9.

Example. The number of women in the stationary population of the Novosibirsk region is known (according to life tables) and age-specific birth rates:

Let's calculate the net reproduction rate. Let's determine the "expected" number of children.

Age group (years)
	44,3487400:1000=21592 121,5484863:1000=58911 71,7481410:1000=34517 28,8477476:1000=13751 11,1472404:1000=5244 3,2465094:1000=1488 0,1454729:1000=46

With the share of girls among births d = 0.488 Rn = 135 5490.488:

100,000 = 0.66148, or rounded to 0.662.

Consequently, every 1000 rural women leave behind only 662 girls. The initial conclusion is confirmed that a regime of narrowed reproduction has been established in this population.

The advantage of the net coefficient is that it takes into account the birth rate in certain age groups of women at the time of compiling life tables, and when calculating it, the mortality rate of the population and the probability of surviving to the next age group are taken into account. In statistical practice, the following scale for assessing the net reproduction rate is adopted: at Rn = 1.0, simple reproduction occurs; at Rn > 1.0 - extended, at Rn< 1,0 - суженное.

B.S. Yastremsky established a relationship between the total fertility rate, the fertility rate (special birth rate, fertility rate) and population reproduction rates (Tables 2 and 3).

Table 2. Relationship between fertility rates

Table 3. Relationship between fertility and population reproduction rates

Consequently, the border between narrowed and simple reproduction lies between the meanings:

· special birth rate from 100 to 150 ‰;

· gross reproduction rate from 0.86 to 1.29 ‰;

· total fertility rate from 15 to 22 ‰.

The net reproduction rate can be calculated not only for the female, but also for the male population using the same methodology. In this case, it shows how many boys each man leaves behind, taking into account the fact that some of them will not live to reach the age of their father at the time of their birth.

To calculate the net reproduction rate of the male population by one-year groups, the formula can be used:

,

where are the age-specific birth rates of children in families of men of age group x years,

The number of living men in the stationary population of life tables in the age interval from X years to X + 1;

d M is the proportion of boys among births.

The calculation is carried out similarly for the five- and ten-year age groups.

Table 4. Initial data for calculating the reproduction rates of the male and female population of the region, people

Note. Age groups: for women – 15-49 years old, for men – 18-55 years old.

Let's calculate the number of births per 1000 population (n x) as (N x:S x 1000).

Age group	Women	Men
45 and older Average

Hence the total fertility rate according to the formula:

51000 for women:

=(78,3 + 226,7 + 193,2 + 106,2 + 36,3 + 8,9 + 1,6)5:1000 = 3,26;

for men:

+ (23,0 + 234,3 + 231,2 + 146,6 + 68,3 + 18,2 + 5,7)5:1000 = 3,64,

those. Each woman leaves an average of 3.26 children during the entire fertile period of her life, a man - 3.64.

The gross population reproduction rate will be calculated using the formula R b =:

3,260,488 = 1,591;

3,640,512 = 1,864,

those. On average, each woman left behind 1,591 girls, and each man left behind 1,864 boys.

To move on to determining the net coefficient, let’s calculate the “expected” number of children: : 1000, for example,

for women: 78.3485 117: 1000 = 37,985;

for men: 23.0487 370: 1000 =11210, etc.

Net reproduction rate:

for women formula

R b = ): ;

for men formula

): .

Consequently, every 1000 women on average leaves behind 1529 girls, taking into account the fact that some of them will not live up to the age of their mother at the time of their birth, and every 1000 men - 1724 boys, provided that some of them will not live up to the age of their father at the time of their birth. birth. The net coefficient of the male population is higher than the net coefficient of the female population by 0.196 points, or 12.8%.

In the second half of the 20th century. In the world, there was a downward trend in all three indicators of population reproduction, and for economically developed countries it exceeded the boundaries of simple reproduction (Fig. 1).

Rice. 1. Net coefficient curve for 1960-2006.

The first turning point in the modern demographic history of Russia was 1964, when the fall in the net reproduction rate of the Russian population crossed the generation replacement line. That same year, the mortality curve began to creep up, which ultimately led to the current shameful level of life expectancy for Russians.

Period X is a characteristic resonant surge caused by the politics and market conditions of the 80s: a slow, jerky rise, a small upper plateau and an accelerating collapse well below the point of initial growth. Noteworthy is the fact that the collapse of the population reproduction rate began long before the “criminal liberal government” came to power and the sharp deterioration in the socio-economic situation of the Soviet people.

The Y-period is divided into two political eras: the Yeltsin era, when uncertainty grew and the socio-economic situation of the majority of the country's population worsened; and the Putin era - when certainty grew, the vertical of power strengthened, the socio-economic situation improved, and the optimism of the voting majority multiplied.

The graph clearly shows the growth of the curve since the post-default year 1999: there are still 8 years of pre-active demographic policy.

According to UN forecasts, by the period 2010-2014. Regions with reduced population reproduction will include Foreign Europe, Foreign Asia, Australia and Oceania. The highest net ratio will remain in Africa. And in America, 109 women will leave behind 109 girls.

In Russia, the process of narrowed reproduction is deepening (see Table 5.)

Table 5. Dynamics of the net population reproduction rate in the Russian Federation in 1960 – 2000

The narrowed reproduction of the urban population began by the end of the 1950s, and of the rural population - since 1993.

In 2000, every 1,000 women of fertile age left 529 girls in cities and 704 in rural areas.

According to the Demographic Yearbook, the total fertility rate for the period from 1991 to 2000 ranged across the CIS countries from 1.10 in Ukraine to 4.09 in Turkmenistan. In Europe in 1999, the lowest level of the indicator was the Czech Republic - 1.12, the highest was France - 1.77. In Asia for 1995-2000. the highest level was reached by Iran - 5.30 and Saudi Arabia - 5.80, the lowest - Japan - 1.39; China had 1.80, India - 3.40. In Africa, the total fertility rate reached 3.81 in Algeria, 3.74 in Egypt, and 3.25 in South Africa (1995-2000). In America for 1995-2000. Canada had the lowest level of the indicator - 1.64, the highest - Mexico - 2.75; in the USA -2.02; in Australia - 1.80 (1996), in New Zealand - 1.97 (1997).

Over population reproduction develops in parallel with the expansion of the boundaries of human population growth as a result of human production activities. But humanity takes its first steps on the historical path with this type of population reproduction, which is formed “between two worlds”: the goals of demographic regulation are set by nature, the means are given by society. This original...

Over a long period of time, it can be concluded that as a result of changes in the course of socio-economic development and under the influence of demographic policy, there was a transition to a new type of population reproduction with low demographic indicators, which allows reducing the pressure of the population on the productive forces and the natural environment and reduces the scale of demographic pressure...

Otherwise, the Net population reproduction rate is called the net population reproduction rate. It is equal to the average number of girls born to a woman in her lifetime and surviving to the end of her reproductive period at given levels of fertility and mortality.

The net population reproduction rate is calculated using the following approximate formula (for data for 5-year age groups):

All notations are the same as in the formula for the gross coefficient and - respectively, the number of people living in the age interval (x + 5) years from the female mortality table, and - its root. A multiplier of 1000 in the denominator of the fraction is added in order to calculate the net coefficient per woman.

6 Question. What is the essence of the concept of conditional and real generation.

Generations can be real and conditional (hypothetical). Characterizing the difference between one and the other, we can say that the formation of a real generation occurs in one relatively short age period, and demographic processes in it occur throughout the subsequent life of the generation (for example, births throughout the entire childbearing period for women born in 1950-1954. ). In a conditional (hypothetical) generation, the opposite situation occurs. It is formed from people born in completely different years, but living at the same time, in which demographic events occur, the frequency of which is measured for this generation (for example, women born in 2000 in all years of birth).

A real generation is a collection of people born in one time period. They are called peers. The advantage of demographic analysis for real generations is mainly that it is possible to more accurately track changes in demographic processes and more accurately identify their determinants when comparing data for different generations. Analyzing demographic information for real generations also has its drawbacks. The final number of births in a real generation can be determined only when all the women in it have completed the process of childbearing (until this time we can only talk about the number of children born at a particular age). In this case, one can reliably know only the birth rate that was in the past (albeit in the recent past). But the analysis of demographic processes also presupposes their current assessment and characteristics. In this case, data on conditional (hypothetical) generations are used.

A conditional or hypothetical generation is a collection of people of different ages, but living at the same time. They are called contemporaries. Data on conventional generations are used to describe demographic processes using the method of cross-sectional analysis. The convention here is that in reality such a generation does not exist, but in demographic calculations it is assumed that throughout the life of an aggregate of contemporaries, the intensity of various demographic processes at each age is the same as what takes place in the analyzed calendar period. People of different ages living at the same time are considered to belong to the same generation.