Exchange rate The euro at the opening of trading today exceeded 77 rubles. The Moscow Exchange index fell at the opening, but then rose by 0.08% by the close of previous trading to 2176.8 points. RTS Index began trading with a decline, reaching 1101.5 points (-0.27%) by 10.25.

Today, the ruble has a chance to strengthen somewhat against the dollar and euro amid morning trading, says financial analyst Boris Belkin. However, by the middle of the day the morning positivity may be lost, the expert suggested in a conversation with the media.

Official Euro exchange rate today 75 rubles 75 kopecks (weakening by 1 ruble 1 kopeck).

The reason for the fall of the ruble against the euro is new US sanctions

The reason is a new round of sanctions, which the United States will announce today. Yes, on the one hand, it is assumed that they will concern specific companies that, according to the New World, supplied technology to Syria that contributed to the production of chemical weapons. That is, they are not directly concerned with the economic “agenda”.

But, on the other hand, global investors are wary of retaliatory measures, especially after reports that Russia may impose sanctions restrictions on trading partners. As a result, the ruble will fall slightly against the dollar.

And in general, we can say that in the near future we can expect a much wider range of fluctuations in the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar and the euro than the one to which the market is already accustomed.

On Friday, the ruble strengthened against the dollar and the euro in morning trading and continued the positive trend in the evening.

Oil rises on news from Syria

At the same time, the ruble can currently be called a currency that has become untied from oil, which is seriously growing due to US military actions in Syria. And the ruble, on the contrary, is falling against the backdrop of news from Syria, the reason for which is sanctions, the reason for which is said to be the same actions in Syria, as rg.ru writes.

The dollar exchange rate will rise to 65 rubles, according to experts

Official dollar exchange rate as of today, April 16, it is 61 rubles 43 kopecks (weakening by 64 kopecks). Analysts predict an increase in the dollar exchange rate to 65 rubles

Market volatility will continue in the near future: the dollar exchange rate may rise to 65 rubles. However, experts warn Russians against rashly purchasing currency at an inflated price. One of the main reasons for the fall in the ruble this week was the expansion of US sanctions.

The ruble exchange rate will not rise against the dollar and euro

The Russian currency has not yet found the strength for a stable upward correction, the expert said

On April 13, the Russian currency traded quite stable and only slightly dipped in pairs with foreign currencies by the end of the session, InstaForex Group analyst Igor Kovalev told a REGNUM correspondent.

“The dollar/ruble pair, which at the moment went below the 61 ruble mark, was able to return to the 62 ruble area. The euro/ruble, after falling to 75 rubles, closed at 76.50 rubles,” the expert cited the figures.

Despite the fact that at the end of the week the pressure on the Russian currency and risky assets in general weakened somewhat, the ruble has not yet found the strength for a confident and stable correction due to persistent risks.

“Under these conditions, the rise in oil prices is practically ignored by the exchange rate of our currency, which is focused on issues of foreign policy of the Russian Federation. Start tax period can limit potential pressure on the “Russian”, but does not neutralize external negativity,” Kovalev believes.

On the night of April 13-14, the United States, Britain and France launched a missile attack on Syria. Russia called these actions “an act of aggression against a sovereign state” and announced an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. The resolution has not yet been adopted because it did not receive a majority of votes.

“Meanwhile, on April 16, Washington will announce new sanctions against Russia. All this creates conditions for the resumption of sales of the ruble, which, despite a partial correction, showed a large-scale drawdown following the results of the five-day trading period,” the expert believes.

The Central Bank does not yet see risks for financial system and has no plans to resist the weakening of the ruble. But if the law proposed by American congressmen is adopted, the Russian currency could lose up to 30% of its value, according to the source regnum.ru.

The Russian currency shows flat dynamics relative to its key “competitors” in the second half of the trading environment. Well monetary unit The Russian Federation at 15:20 Moscow time against the dollar was ₽57.6950, against the euro - ₽69.0850. Relative to its American counterpart, the ruble strengthened by 1.5 kopecks, giving the EU currency 8.0 kopecks.

Oil prices are trying to move closer to the 55-dollar mark ($54.65 at 15:36 Moscow time; +38 cents). The rising aspirations of strategic raw materials are due to yesterday's statistics from the American Petroleum Institute (the report showed an increase in crude oil inventories by almost 6.2 million barrels while a simultaneous decrease in gasoline inventories by 7.9 million barrels per week, which is a historical record). Analysts explain this discorrelation by the consequences of Hurricane Harvey, which shut down a quarter of the oil refining capacity in the United States.

Confirmation of these figures by the US Department of Energy in today's report may strengthen the position of “black gold” and the Russian currency. And even if events follow the opposite scenario, the domestic currency will maintain close to current levels due to the activity of foreign carry traders.

The main intrigue of the week remains the amount by which the Bank of Russia will reduce the key rate, as well as the tone of the regulator’s comments and further actions of the ruble. No one doubts the Central Bank’s readiness to reduce the rate. The only question is the level of correction (most experts expect -0.5%). Opinions about the subsequent behavior of the Russian currency were divided. Optimists insist that the domestic currency has room for growth.

— Now the market is driven by two main factors: consistently high barrel prices and a weak dollar. The current market conditions leave a chance for the ruble to strengthen even if the rate is lowered by 0.25-0.5%, says Vladimir Vedeneev from Raiffeisen Capital.

The stability of the Russian currency was also noted by FxPro specialists, who linked yesterday's fall in the ruble to profit-taking.

“Taking profits from the impressive strengthening of the national currency was in full swing yesterday, overshadowing other market factors,” comments investment community expert Alexander Kuptsikevich.

“The lack of new ideas probably forced speculators to take a break,” agrees Dmitry Polevoy from ING Bank.

The influence of these processes and the unpredictability of the contents of the evening report of the US Department of Energy could lead to sales of Brent, a drop in the barrel to the area of ​​$53.60 and an increase in the dollar to ₽57.90, warns Alena Afanasyeva from Forex Club.

Analitika-Online representative Gleb Zadoya believes that the dollar will not stop at the level stated by Afanasyeva and will continue to grow after declining key rate Central Bank. Expert recommendations to clients - buy dollars for current levels for the purpose of their subsequent sale at ₽62.00-63.00.

There is a stereotypical opinion that exchange rates in exchange offices depend on the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. In fact, he sets the official rate Russian ruble in relation to other currencies, but does not dictate to commercial banks how to sell currencies to the public. How is the official rate formed and in accordance with what rules is the exchange rate of private banks formed?

How is the official exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation set?

If you are looking current courses currencies for today, then always follow events on foreign exchange market financial portal in Yekaterinburg. Let's look at how the exchange rate is set. Every day trading takes place on interbank currency exchanges. This is a kind of market where banks purchase the necessary currency. There, based on supply and demand for foreign money, conversion is formed. The time at which the Central Bank must inform official courses, is not fixed by law. Active trading continues until 11.30, but information about rates for tomorrow is published only at 15.00.

First, the US dollar to ruble exchange rate is determined. It is formed on the basis of the weighted average (not the arithmetic mean) value of quotes that were established as a result of trading in the current single session.

How does a weighted average differ from an arithmetic mean? In the first case, when calculating the average value, not only the price of one dollar is taken into account, but also the volume of the transaction made - how many dollars were bought at a certain price.

All other currencies are calculated based on the accepted dollar/ruble exchange rate. Essentially, these are cross courses. They also depend on:

• ​ US dollar valuations accepted on international currency exchanges;
• ​data from national banks of states that issue a certain currency.

Total Central Bank publishes exchange rates for 32 currencies against the Russian ruble. You can find out about dollar rates in Ekaterinburg banks on the website

What determines the exchange rate at banks?

The Central Bank sets official rates, but does not sell or buy currency to the population. This is what they do commercial banks.

How the currency should be established is enshrined in Regulation No. 286-P Central Bank RF, adopted in 2006. But neither there nor in any other document is it written that commercial banks should rely on the official exchange rate of the Central Bank when setting prices at exchange offices.

Then how do they use official courses? All payment and settlement transactions government agencies are calculated at the Central Bank exchange rate; they are used to calculate expenses and revenues of the state budget.

Earnings from exchange operations are one of the main sources of income for banks, especially during periods of currency panic.

The exchange rates in banks in Yekaterinburg and in Russia as a whole are influenced by the main regulator market economy– supply and demand, or rather, the balance of these indicators. Banks are free to put any numbers, but will people buy dollars or euros from such a bank? As a result, it turns out that currency conversion is close to the Central Bank rates.

In addition to supply and demand, the final value of currency in banks is affected by the “currency position”. This means: if a bank does not have enough currency to fulfill its obligations, it buys it from the population at a higher price than its competitors. If a bank wants to get rid of a weakened currency, it sells it cheaper than other banks.

The buying rate is the price at which people can rent foreign currency.

The selling rate is the price at which people can buy a currency.

The difference between these two indicators is called the "spread".

To avoid confusion, remember a simple rule: if you buy a currency, look at the lower price.

Such conclusions are contained in an analytical note from the Research and Forecasting Department of the Central Bank. The department emphasized that these conclusions are the point of view of the authors of the report and may not coincide with the position of the Central Bank.

President Vladimir Putin said on April 25 that the authorities are looking for options for market-based measures to influence the ruble exchange rate. The head of state noted that the re-strengthening of the currency is unprofitable for businesses that are export-oriented, but it gives an advantage to other companies and ordinary Russians who vacation abroad.

Historical experience

Central Bank experts noted that attempts to understate exchange rate often end in failure.

"The real exchange rate is still strengthening, but under the influence of higher rates of price growth ( wages— due to competition for labor from the non-tradable sector),” the study authors write.

The authors of the report recalled the situation that developed in Russia in the 2000s. Then the Central Bank, against the backdrop of high oil prices, carried out active interventions in the market, buying up foreign currency. As a result of increased liquidity, real rates turned out to be negative: the average nominal rate money market(MIACR overnight) in 2004-2007 was only 5.8 percent with average inflation at 10 percent.

According to experts, the actions of the Central Bank led to an increase in wages in the economy, which outpaced the increase in labor productivity. As a result, in medium term price competitiveness still decreased and did not depend on the policy of the Bank of Russia.

Two effects

Central Bank analysts also noted that an undervaluation of the exchange rate could cause several effects that could affect the economy in different ways.

According to experts, the equilibrium exchange rate depends on the structure of the economy, the availability of qualified, highly productive personnel, the ability to innovate and technological development.

The first effect is that wages in the production of tradable goods become lower compared to other countries. This picture is typical not only during an artificial undervaluation of the currency, but also during structural shocks (for example, during a sharp collapse in the oil market).

According to the Central Bank, the rise in oil prices, which occurred in the second half of 2016 - early 2017, and the subsequent strengthening of the ruble led to an increase in wages in manufacturing industries, but they still remained lower than in China.

“Such a decline in living standards reflects the structure of the economy and is associated with a decrease in oil rent. An increase in production efficiency and labor productivity in such conditions should lead to an increase in wages and well-being of the population. An artificial depreciation of the exchange rate will create competitive advantages, but at the expense of a decrease in the well-being of the population,” - says the report.

The second effect of currency depreciation is associated with rising prices and decreased demand for imported investment goods and components. Moreover, such imports can play a large role in domestic investment.

Thus, the ratio of imports and production investment goods(machinery and equipment) in Russia in 2016 amounted to 1.5 - per ruble of domestic production there was one and a half rubles of imports.

The influence of both factors leads to the fact that labor-intensive tradable industries benefit more.

More cons

The Central Bank department notes that a weak currency will bring more troubles to Russia than benefits.

“First, the policy of a weak currency slows down the growth of labor productivity. Labor-intensive industries tend to be characterized by lower productivity,” experts noted, adding that capital-intensive industries are willing to pay their employees higher wages, which is justified by the high productivity of such workers.

As a result, a weak currency begins to support labor-intensive tradable industries, “subsidizing” industries with low labor productivity at the expense of the rest of the economy.

Such “subsidies” lead to the fact that enterprises lose the incentive to increase labor productivity, analysts say.

Another point of view

The main “lobbyist” for the weakening of the ruble exchange rate is the Ministry of Finance. At the beginning of the year, officials said that the exchange rate of about 60 rubles per dollar was too high, and therefore the country’s budget could not be balanced.

When drawing up the budget, the Ministry of Finance assumed that the cost of a barrel of oil would be $40, and for one dollar you would have to pay 67.5 rubles. But prices on the oil market at the beginning of the year were higher - around $55 per barrel.

In January, the Ministry of Finance adopted a budget rule according to which additional oil and gas revenues go to the Reserve Fund.

The Ministry of Finance even condemned the possibility of devaluing the Russian currency by 10 percent. It was expected that the ruble would help weaken the purchase of foreign currency, which the department and the Central Bank began to carry out in February, but economists’ expectations were not met - the ruble continued to strengthen.

“The main task of this operation is precisely to create a stable situation in the foreign exchange market. If we had not started buying now, and we are buying at about $100 million per trading session, then the exchange rate would begin to strengthen even more sharply than it is now,” said Finance Minister Anton Siluanov in mid-February.

In March, Siluanov said that the ruble was overstrengthened from fundamental values ​​by 10-12 percent. At that time, a dollar on the stock exchange gave a little more than 57 rubles; in May, a similar picture was observed.

The Bank of Russia, whose entry into the market to purchase foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance collapsed the ruble, took an unprecedented step - it abandoned them until the end of September. This will support the exchange rate in the short term, but the impact of sanctions cannot be avoided

The Bank of Russia will leave the foreign exchange market for more than a month, from August 23 to the end of September. The regulator suspended currency purchases for the Ministry of Finance, which it carried out as part of budget rule, aimed at neutralizing windfalls from high oil prices.

The Central Bank took an unprecedented step to “increase the predictability of the actions of monetary authorities and reduce the volatility of financial markets.” A return to procurement will take place “taking into account the actual situation in financial markets"during September. The Bank of Russia also assured that it is monitoring the situation on the market and “has enough tools to prevent threats to financial stability.”

The market believed the regulator’s words - the ruble, which had fallen to two-year lows, immediately after the publication of the Central Bank’s comment strengthened by more than 70 kopecks. from the previously reached level of 69.01 rubles. for a dollar. During trading, the Russian currency exchange rate reached 67.45 for the dollar and 78.0 for the euro. But by the evening the ruble sank again and at 20:15 Moscow time its exchange rate to the dollar was 68.25 rubles. (21 kopecks cheaper than at Wednesday’s close), to the euro - 78.7 rubles. (20 kopecks more expensive).

The Central Bank got scared

The Central Bank has been purchasing foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance using oil windfalls since February 2017 and since that time has never taken such significant breaks - the longest was in April, when, after the announcement of new American sanctions, the Central Bank left the market for six trading days.

From August 7 to September 6, the Central Bank was supposed to buy foreign currency in a record amount - 383.2 billion rubles, but managed to buy only 96 billion rubles. Against the backdrop of volatility in the foreign exchange market, since August 9, the regulator did not purchase foreign currency for six trading days, as in April. On August 17, purchases resumed, but the return of the Bank of Russia to the foreign exchange market coincided with the weakening of the ruble, caused by the expectation of a new wave of American sanctions, and pushed the Russian currency down. Moreover, the Central Bank increased daily purchases of foreign currency on the market due to a week-long “downtime” in order to fulfill the purchase plan.

At the auction on August 22, the dollar exchange rate exceeded 68 rubles, the euro - 79 rubles. On August 23, the trend continued: the dollar exchange rate increased to its highest values ​​against the ruble since April 2016, reaching 69 rubles.

On the part of the regulator, leaving the market is an absolutely adequate and justified step, says Kirill Tremasov, director of the analytical department of Loko-Invest: in the current macroeconomic situation, the ruble is divorced from its fundamental value, the dollar is unreasonably expensive. “There is no need to spend budget money buying a noticeably overvalued asset,” he noted. According to Tremasov, the Central Bank was afraid of a repeat of the situation in 2014. “He fought for so long to “anchor” inflation and inflation expectations near the target, and now, due to the speculative devaluation of the ruble, everything could go down the drain at one moment,” the expert noted.

When the Central Bank returned to the market, this put pressure on the ruble, and now the Bank of Russia, in fact, is forced to admit the fact that negative influence The ruble exchange rate is mainly affected by the presence of the Central Bank in the market, says Finam Group analyst Alexey Korenev.

Is the regulator to blame?

If the Central Bank had not returned to foreign currency purchases on August 17, the situation with the ruble exchange rate would have been different, analysts interviewed by RBC are sure. A break in purchases in mid-August allowed the ruble to return to a fairly comfortable corridor (65-68 rubles per dollar), Korenev recalls. “If purchases had not resumed, we would have observed the stabilization of the Russian currency at the level of 67 rubles,” believes Raiffeisenbank analyst Denis Poryvay.

According to Otkritie Broker analyst Timur Nigmatullin, the panic in the foreign exchange market in recent days was actually man-made - the increase in ruble interventions by the Central Bank was superimposed on the Ministry of Finance’s refusal to place OFZs. Oil on the market costs $74 per barrel, but due to the actions of the Central Bank, the rate corresponds to oil at a price of $40 per barrel, he points out.

Will the ruble strengthen?

Now the fundamental point is that the Central Bank not only stopped purchases, but also warned that it would not carry them out until the end of September, which is an important verbal intervention, Korenev points out. These promises were enough to stop the panic in the market and stop the uncontrollable fall of the ruble. The market believed that the Central Bank would take a long break in purchases, which would relieve some psychological pressure from trading participants, the analyst believes.

If the second stage of sanctions related to the poisoning of the Skripals is adopted in November in a fairly strict form, then there will be a strong fall in the ruble (above 70 rubles per dollar). If the sanctions are mild enough, then the Central Bank should have enough strength to keep the Russian currency at a fairly comfortable level, Korenev suggests. At the same time, according to the expert, a situation cannot be ruled out in which, in the event of sharp fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, the Central Bank will be forced to sell dollars.

The impact of the Central Bank’s decision on the ruble exchange rate will be short-term, says investment strategist at BCS Premier Alexander Bakhtin. The regulator’s measure is more likely not support, but rather the exclusion of a factor that would aggravate the already tense situation in the market. The future of the ruble will primarily depend on the situation on the oil market and the further development of sanctions rhetoric; much will also depend on the impact of the Fed’s policy on the dollar exchange rate and the threat of trade wars between the United States and China, the analyst argues. By the end of the year, you can expect an exchange rate in the range of 65-70 rubles. per dollar, he predicts.

The scenario, which can be considered basic (acceptance of US sanctions for the Skripals, rejection of a tougher Senate package of sanctions, leaving the fiscal rule unchanged and stabilization of the situation in emerging markets), allows us to assume that by the end of the year the dollar will be in the region of 61.8 rubles, optimistic Nigmatullin. If events develop negatively (crisis in Turkey, slowdown Chinese economy, falling oil prices, adoption of sanctions by the US Senate) the dollar could reach 70.4 rubles. A complete refusal to purchase foreign currency within the framework of the budget rule until the end of the year could strengthen the ruble to 57-58 rubles. per dollar, but such a scenario is unlikely, the expert says.

The fate of the fiscal rule

According to the standards approved by the government in December 2017, monthly volumes of foreign currency purchases are established by the Ministry of Finance according to a formula and are equal to additional oil and gas budget revenues, that is, income from the excess of actual oil prices over base price$40.8 per barrel. The purchase of currency, which is then sent to the National Welfare Fund (NWF), is carried out by the Central Bank.

The Central Bank is by law an independent institution, and one of its independent goals is to “protect and ensure the stability of the ruble.” The Bank of Russia noted that its approaches to monetary policy do not change under the budget rule. In particular, the Central Bank retained the ability to determine the volume of daily transactions for the purchase of currency “in order to maintain financial stability.”

“The Central Bank’s decision (on a moratorium on purchases - RBC) will not affect the implementation of the foreign currency purchase plan within the framework of the budget rule. At the same time, the Central Bank independently determines the sources of currency to replenish the Federal Treasury account,” a representative of the Ministry of Finance told RBC on Thursday. The government rules for making payments in connection with additional oil and gas revenues do not specify where the Ministry of Finance should purchase currency according to the budget rule, that is, it can be purchased either at domestic market, and directly from the Central Bank. In 2014, the Treasury directly purchased foreign currency from the Central Bank for the then existing Reserve Fund.

According to Raiffeisenbank analyst Denis Poryvay, the chances of fulfilling the annual foreign currency purchase plan are now slim. “By the end of September, the situation will not change much: elections to the US Congress will only take place in November, so the risk of new sanctions remains. Plus, the Fed rate will continue to rise, stimulating capital outflow from emerging markets, in particular from Russia. In this situation, it will be difficult for the Central Bank to resume purchasing foreign currency without increasing risks to financial stability,” Poryvay explained.

The implementation of the plan for foreign currency purchases by the end of the year will depend on the market situation, says Vladimir Osakovsky, chief economist for Russia and the CIS at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. But even if the plan for purchases on the market is not fulfilled, this will not have any serious consequences - the Central Bank has the opportunity to sell currency directly to the Ministry of Finance. There is no need to be afraid of not fulfilling the foreign currency purchase plan, agrees Sergei Romanchuk, head of operations on the money and foreign exchange market of Metallinvest Bank. “It’s okay if the Central Bank does not replenish the foreign exchange reserve, because now this is not a priority task. It is much more important to remove excess volatility of the ruble,” he concludes.​