Demographic analysis

Demographic analysis- the main method of processing information to obtain demographic indicators. Two types of demographic analysis are most common.

Longitudinal analysis

Longitudinal analysis is a method of studying demographic processes in which they are described and analyzed in cohorts, that is, in populations of people who simultaneously entered a certain demographic state. This means that demographic events are considered in their natural sequence.

The advantage of longitudinal analysis is the ability to study the calendar of demographic events (i.e., the distribution of events over periods of a cohort’s life) and changes in this calendar under the influence of certain conditions. By comparing the frequency of demographic events in different cohorts at different stages of their lives in a longitudinal analysis, one can obtain a correct idea of ​​both the impact of changes in living conditions on the dynamics of demographic processes, and of these dynamics themselves.

Disadvantages: “lag” of observation results from real processes. The full demographic history of a cohort becomes known only when it exits a given demographic state. Data on the number of events for cohorts that have not yet emerged from this state are, as it were, “truncated.” Therefore, it is necessary to use extrapolation of indicators or “expected” indicators.

Cross-sectional analysis

Cross-sectional analysis consists of looking at the frequency of events at a “slice” at any point in time. As a result, a conditional generation is studied, which includes people in each age interval, and during, for example, a year, some of them experience certain demographic events. The frequency of events covers the entire duration of a given state.

Cross-sectional analysis is the most common technique for demographic description and analysis due to the availability of information. Most indicators are usually indicators for a conditional generation.

However, there is also a drawback: with sharp changes in the intensity of demographic processes over time, it can give a distorted picture of the pattern of changes in this process.

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Statistical methods in demographic science represent one of the most important applications of the statistical method. Statistical analysis of phenomena and processes occurring in the social life of society is carried out using methods specific to statistics - methods of general indicators that give a numerical measurement of the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of an object, the connections between them, and trends in their change.

All methods used in demography can be combined by their nature into three groups: statistical, mathematical and sociological. The objects of observation in demography are not individual people and events, but groups of people and events grouped according to certain rules, homogeneous in some respects. Such collections are called statistical facts. Demography seeks to establish and measure objectively existing relationships between statistical facts related to its subject, using for this purpose methods also developed in statistics, for example, methods of correlation and factor analysis. In demography, other statistical methods are also used, in particular sampling and index methods, the method of averages, alignment methods, tabular and others.

In demography, the scope of application of statistical methods is very extensive. It covers the process of observing and obtaining information about the population and individual demographic processes, data processing and construction of distribution series, analysis of demographic patterns and relationships, and calculation of summary indicators of population reproduction.

Collection and assessment of initial information is the first stage of any statistical observation. Information for the purposes of demographic analysis is based on data from three main sources: population censuses, current records, and sample demographic studies. The variety of numerical data obtained as a result of statistical observation requires appropriate processing and analysis. For this purpose, distribution series are constructed, which represent statistical populations ordered by appropriate characteristics at any point or period of time. In demography, there are three types of such series:

• - distribution of the population itself according to certain characteristics (by gender, age, occupation, education, etc.);
• -distribution of population groups (families or types of settlement by size, age, etc.);
• -distribution of demographic events (number of births by order, mother’s age, deaths due to causes, marriage rates, duration of marriage).

The frequency of the spread of a particular demographic event in a certain environment characterizes its intensity and is measured by various coefficients. They represent the ratio of the number of events to the population in which they occurred, or to the size of a particular group. Depending on the exact number of events these numbers correspond to, general, special and partial coefficients are distinguished. Total coefficients are also used, which are the sum of age-specific (i.e. partial) coefficients, for example, the total fertility rate. Sometimes in the analysis there are comparison coefficients of opposite processes, showing how many times the intensity of one is greater than the intensity of the other, for example, how many marriages there are for one divorce (marriage stability coefficient). demographic migration economic

The next stage of statistical study of socio-economic phenomena is the determination of their structure, i.e. identifying the parts and elements that make up the totality. We are talking about the method of groupings and classifications, which in population statistics are called typological and structural.

To understand the structure of the population, it is necessary, first of all, to identify the characteristics of grouping and classification. Any sign that has been observed can also serve as a grouping sign. For example, on the question of attitude towards the person recorded first on the census form, it is possible to determine the structure of the census population, where it seems likely to identify a significant number of groups. This characteristic is attributive, therefore, when developing census forms based on it, it is necessary to draw up in advance a list of classifications (groupings by attributive characteristics) needed for analysis. When compiling classifications with a large number of attribute records, assignment to certain groups is justified in advance. Thus, according to their occupation, the population is divided into several thousand species, which statistics reduce into certain classes, which is recorded in the so-called dictionary of occupations.

When studying the structure based on quantitative characteristics, it becomes possible to use such statistical generalizing indicators as mean, mode and median, distance measures or indicators of variation to characterize different parameters of the population. The structures of phenomena under consideration serve as the basis for studying the connections in them. In the theory of statistics, functional and statistical connections are distinguished. The study of the latter is impossible without dividing the population into groups and then comparing the value of the resulting characteristic.

Grouping by factor attribute and comparison with changes in the resultant attribute allows us to establish the direction of the relationship: is it direct or inverse, as well as give an idea of ​​its form of broken regression. These groupings make it possible to construct a system of equations necessary to find the parameters of the regression equation and determine the closeness of the relationship by calculating correlation coefficients. Groupings and classifications serve as the basis for the use of variance analysis of relationships between indicators of population movement and the factors that cause them.

Statistical methods for studying dynamics, graphical study of phenomena, index, sample and balance methods are widely used in the study of the population. We can say that population statistics uses the entire arsenal of statistical methods and examples to study its object. In addition, methods developed only for studying populations are also used. These are methods of real generation (cohorts) and conditional generation. The first allows us to consider changes in the natural movement of peers (born in the same year) - longitudinal analysis; the second considers the natural movement of peers (living at the same time) - cross-sectional analysis.

The method of longitudinal analysis received this name due to the fact that when using it, the researcher goes, as it were, “along” the life of a certain group of people. This method is used to study the dynamics of any demographic process over the life of one generation. When using this method, demographic events are described in cohorts (a cohort is understood as a set of people who simultaneously entered one or another state, for example, were born in the same year, married in the same year, etc.). Therefore, this method is also called the real generation method, or cohort method. The longitudinal analysis method also makes it possible to identify the calendar of demographic events, i.e., their distribution over periods of the cohort’s life.

The cross-sectional analysis method is one of the most common in demography due to the fact that its application requires data for only a year or two. It allows one to judge the current state of demographic processes, however, with sudden changes in the nature of these processes over time, it can give a distorted picture. Usually, when studying a population, a researcher has information about its size and age-sex composition as of the date of the last census, as well as materials from current statistical records of various demographic events (births, deaths, etc.) for the years close to the date of the census. Having information about the age composition of the population, real generations can be “dissected” from top to bottom. At the same time, materials from current statistical records on the number of demographic events that have occurred by age are used (for example, the number of deaths by age). Thus, we obtain age-specific characteristics of a demographic event (in our example, mortality) of a hypothetical, or conditional, generation, i.e. a conditional population of people for whom it is assumed that throughout the life of these people the intensity of demographic processes at each age will be the same as that existing in the modern period. In this case, people of different ages living today are conventionally considered as belonging to the same generation. Since in this case the researcher mentally goes “across” the line of life, the method is called cross-sectional analysis, and since one has to deal with a hypothetical, or conditional, generation, it is also called the method of conditional (hypothetical) generation.

Also common demographic methods include the method of potential demography, when demographic processes are expressed not by the number of specific events or person-years lived, but by the so-called demographic potential - the number of person-years of life ahead, and the method of standardizing demographic coefficients, which makes it possible to exclude the influence of differences in comparisons as part of the population of compared territories or for compared periods of time.

For example, if the population of two territories has different fertility rates, this may be caused by both different intensity of this process in people of the same age, and differences in the age structure.

When studying demographic processes, it is necessary, first of all, to answer the following questions: 1) What are the patterns of changes in the nature of each of the demographic processes? For example, what are the patterns of reproduction of the country's population as a whole, as well as, separately, fertility, mortality and migration? 2) What factors determine the formation of one or another level of demographic phenomena, the qualitative features of population reproduction?

Consequently, it is necessary to identify, first of all, the qualitative patterns of development of demographic processes, then the reproduction of the population as a whole, in its socio-economic condition, and only then identify the system of factors that determine the development of demographic processes in a given period of time. Such tasks face demographic research departments at research institutes.

Methodological provisions of demographic analysis.

When analyzing demographic processes, it is necessary to keep in mind the essence of the socio-economic processes occurring in society, country, region.

Demographic processes consist of a large number of events, the occurrence of each of which is caused by elements of chance, the influence in each individual case of a combination of causes, but it must be borne in mind that through a large number of chance events a general pattern appears. Thus, the main task of demographic analysis- identify general patterns and changes in the nature of demographic processes. Changes of this kind occur gradually, the pace of their shifts does not always coincide for different demographic processes, therefore demographic analysis must be carried out over time (since time is the most important dominant factor in events occurring in the population).

The most important parameter in demographic analysis is territory. All demographic events occur in time and in relation to a specific country or a separate part of it. This means demographic analysis must be carried out relative to two coordinates - time and space. For example, it makes no sense to say: “Five million children were born.” A necessary attribute of clarification will be information about where and when this happened, otherwise the statement does not make sense for analysis and conclusions.

Demographic and socio-economic processes are connected by a unique link, namely, the mechanism of demographic behavior. The latter, in turn, consists of the population’s attitude to the problems of fertility (reproductive behavior), mortality (self-preservation behavior), displacement (migration behavior), and family and marital problems (matrimonial behavior). There are connections and interactions between such relationships and demographic states.

For example, a high level of migration of young people from one part of the country to another leads to the fact that in those regions where young people chose to emigrate, the total number of births decreases, the age-sex structure changes significantly with all the ensuing consequences. The processes of fertility, mortality and marriage are interconnected, although to a lesser extent. Thus, we are talking about studying exogenous and endogenous connections that are diverse in nature. This means that to analyze such dependencies, a variety of analytical apparatus, methodological approaches and techniques must be used, since not one, even the most powerful method of studying demographic processes, cannot provide a comprehensive description of the patterns occurring in the population.

The integrated use of demographic analysis methods is the main condition for its success.

Demographic Analysis Task Sequence:

1) identify qualitative patterns of development of demographic processes;

2) identify patterns of reproduction of the population as a whole, in their socio-economic condition;

3) identify a system of factors that determine ongoing demographic processes at a given period of time.

Demographic analysis methods.

1. Statistical methods population studies (demographic statistics). All the most developed methods of statistical analysis are used here: relative and average values, indices, probabilistic characteristics of the intensity of processes, etc. But demographic statistics, based on a general statistical methodology, also has its own methods. For example, demographic tables, which are a system of probabilistic characteristics that describe changes in the state of people and the occurrence of demographic events in their lives as they move from age to age (from birth to the end of life). Demographic tables are used as input demographic analysis models.

Historically the first were mortality tables (life tables), they are the easiest to use. Such a table identifies only two states - life and death, therefore, only one type of transition. The mortality table is a model of changes in causes of mortality at different times.

Mortality tables must be studied because they are a method ordering statistical data on population movements. Based on demographic tables, demographic indicators such as: average life expectancy, average number of children born during a lifetime, distribution of women by number of children born, probability of marriage, widowhood and divorce, gender specificity of the territory are calculated. The above indicators are important for building demographic forecasts and demographic policy of the country.

2. Mathematical models in population studies. They mean mathematical modeling, especially computer simulation models of demographic processes and their development. The use of such methods requires special training.

3. Sociological methods represent an analysis of demographic behavior, the attitude of the population towards a particular demographic problem, and the mechanism for the formation of various stereotypes. The most popular here are sociological surveys.

4. Graphic-analytical and cartographic methods. Within the framework of these methods, demographic information is presented in the form of various kinds of graphs, diagrams, drawings, population density maps and other visual images, which makes it easier to identify and better present the general patterns of development of demographic processes and their structures.

Specific graphic images include age pyramids, allowing to analyze the age-sex structure of the population at a certain moment.

A widely used graphic image is called demographic grid, it shows the dynamics of population groups over time.

All of the above analysis methods should be used comprehensively and complement each other.

2.1 Analysis of demographic development in the world

Population reproduction is the process of generational change as a result of natural population movement. To characterize the size and reproduction of the population, many demographic indicators are used, but the main ones are fertility rates, mortality rates (the number of births or deaths in 1 year per 1 thousand inhabitants) and natural increase. Their value is expressed in %o (ppm), i.e. in thousandths.

Throughout history, the population of our planet has grown very slowly (Fig. 1). According to available estimates, it hardly increased until about the middle of the second millennium AD. Back in the 18th century. Enlightened people in Europe argued whether the population of Europe was growing or decreasing, but they knew nothing at all about the planet as a whole. But, starting around the end of the 18th century, the first signs of accelerated population growth appeared, which after some time became explosive. The point on the graph is 1900 - the beginning of the twentieth century. - when this rise became very noticeable. This began the now famous demographic explosion.

Figure 1. World population growth over 2500 years, million people

The data in the following figure refers to the period from the mid-18th century, for which more or less reliable data is already available. The top line is the entire population of the planet, its different parts growing unevenly. Starting at some point, Europe and other regions inhabited by immigrants from Europe - North America, Oceania - began to yield to all other regions of the world in terms of population growth.

In the modern world, we can roughly distinguish two main types of population reproduction. One of them is characterized by average and even low birth rates and low death rates and a slowdown or stabilization of population growth rates ("demographic winter"). It is typical for economically developed countries of the world.

Figure 2. World population growth between 1750 and 2000, million people

Another type of population reproduction is characterized by a very high birth rate, a decrease in mortality and, accordingly, high rates of population growth (“demographic spring”). The second type of reproduction is characterized by the concept of a demographic explosion; in this case, the state takes measures to reduce population growth, i.e. Family planning policies are being implemented to reduce the birth rate.

The third figure shows the world population forecast until the middle of this century. UN experts make this forecast every two years; the graph shows its latest version, made in 2006. The forecast was made in three versions. The “upper” option envisages continued growth and an increase in the population to approximately 10.5-11 billion people by mid-century. (The world population at the beginning of the twentieth century, when the demographic explosion began to gain strength, was only 1.6 billion people. In the middle of the century it was already 2.5 billion. By the end of the century, the world population reached 6.5 billion, and growth continues Thus, in just a hundred years, 5 billion people were added to the Earth, while the demographic total of human history by the beginning of the twentieth century was only 1.5-1.6 billion people.

Figure 3. World population until 2050 according to three versions of the 2006 UN forecast, million people

The top version of the forecast assumes continuous growth: by mid-century, the world population will exceed 10.5 billion people and will continue to increase at the same rate. According to the average option, by the middle of the century there will be more than 9 billion people, growth will also not stop, but will still slow down noticeably. And only the lower option envisages not only a slowdown in growth until the middle of the century, but its cessation, and then the beginning of a decline in the world population.

Several years ago, UN experts developed an ultra-long-term forecast - for 300 years (Fig. 4). Here, too, there are three options, one of which, as in the previous case, provides for continuous growth, and this growth will lead to the fact that the planet's population will reach 35 billion people in 300 years. There is a middle option, which involves stabilizing the population at approximately 7-8 billion people. And there is a lower option, according to which in the middle of this century the world population should begin to decline, which in 300 years will return approximately to the level of the mid-twentieth century, i.e. to a population of 2-3 billion people.

Figure 4. World population up to 2300 according to three versions of the 2006 UN forecast, billion people

In addition to the fact that the population of the Earth as a whole is growing, it is also very important that it is growing unevenly. The population of the so-called developing world, Asia, Africa and Latin America is increasing. And the population of developed countries, the notorious “golden billion”, which includes Russia, is now almost not growing, and in some countries is even declining. As a result, a very large demographic asymmetry has arisen on the planet, which will increase. The populations of Asia and Africa will grow particularly rapidly, and their share in the planet’s population will accordingly increase (Fig. 5).

In Fig. Figure 6 shows how attitudes between the developed and developing world are changing. The share of countries in the developed world at the beginning of the twentieth century. was not very high, approximately 30% of the world's population. But, as you know, these countries surpassed the rest of the world in economic and military power. This is still the case, but the situation is beginning to change, and at the same time the demographic weight of developed countries is falling, the share of their population is rapidly declining. In 2000, they (or perhaps we should say) “weighed” less than 20%, and by 2050 this share will drop below 15%.

Figure 5. Population of the world, developed and developing countries until 2050 according to three versions of the 2006 UN forecast, million people

Figure 6. Population share of current developed and developing countries in 1900, 1950, 2000 and 2050

In Fig. Figure 7 shows another manifestation of the uneven distribution and growth of the Earth's population. In 2050, over 5 billion people - the number of people living on the entire planet just recently - will live in Asia. This is 60% of the world population in 2050.

Figure 7. 60% of the world's population will live in Asia

This is the case with the global context, against the background of which we must understand how demographic development is taking place in Russia.

Analysis of demographic development in the world

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Analysis of demographic development in the world

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Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution

higher professional education

RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC SERVICE

under the PRESIDENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

SIBERIAN INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT - BRANCH OF RANEPA

CENTER FOR RETRAINING SPECIALISTS

Department of Taxation and Accounting

Course work

Topic: Analysis of the demographic situation in the Russian Federation.

Student: Kopeikina Elena Vladimirovna

Teacher: Berezin S.A.

Novosibirsk 2014

Introduction

1. Analysis of population size and age-sex composition according to population census data

2. Natural population movement

3. Migration movement of the population

4. Processes of marriage and divorce

Conclusion

List of sources and literature used

Introduction

The word “demography” is formed from two Greek words: “demos” - people, and “grapha” - to write, that is, if this phrase is interpreted literally, it will mean “description of the people”, or description of the population. But demography, from the very beginning of its history, has never been limited to just description; its subject has always been broader and deeper.

Demography is not a new science. It is already more than 300 years old. But it still remains a little-known science for most of our citizens. And only in recent years this situation has changed. Now you can often hear 110 radio or television and see the words “demography”, “demographic” in various phrases in newspapers.

Since the beginning of the 90s. Our country has entered the stage of, without exaggeration, a demographic catastrophe. This catastrophe is expressed primarily in an unprecedentedly low birth rate (the level of which today is half as low as in the most difficult years of the Great Patriotic War), in a very high divorce rate (for which we are now in second place in the world after the United States), in the relatively low duration life of the population, especially the male population. Moreover, more than half of the male population does not live to retirement age. Since 1992, Russia's population has not been growing, but has been declining, and at a very rapid pace.

Despite some differences in the final results of Russia's demographic development over half a century, depending on the accepted initial parameters of fertility, mortality and net migration), all numerous forecasts converge on a rapid decrease in the population and its rapid aging. According to demographers, “the most likely forecast option is that the population of Russia will be steadily declining and will reach 90,590.6 thousand people by the beginning of 2050, having decreased by 51.6 million compared to the beginning of 2007, or 1.6 times. The share of the population 60 years and older will increase from 18.9% to 38.5%, the share of the working age population will fall from 18.6% to 9.4%.

These negative consequences entail a sharp increase in the costs of social support for the disabled population and the loss of defense potential, and ultimately the destruction of the geopolitical balance.

Demographic losses continue to serve as a source of economic damage from the loss of human resources themselves and investments in people made but not fully effective (in upbringing, education, health care, etc.). But more important than these losses is the inability of Russian society to achieve such goals as a longer and healthier life.

Preserving the demographic, labor and defense potential of geopolitical balance, normalizing the proportions of settlement (primarily the settlement of border areas) should be considered fundamental values ​​for any sovereign state.

The topic of the study was the assessment and analysis of the demographic situation in the Russian Federation, since this problem is currently the most pressing in terms of forecasting and identifying factors influencing the demographic situation in the country. In this thesis, time series and forecasting using trend models were used to analyze the demographic situation.

Modern statistical research methods can provide a complete picture of the demographic situation in the areas under study.

The purpose of demographic analysis is related to the needs of economic planning (the need to foresee the dynamics of fertility and mortality of the population and the structure of labor resources); the need to assess the future dynamics of consumer demand for certain types of goods and services; the needs of social sector planning (education, healthcare, construction, pension system, etc.).

Thus, the study of the demographic situation is one of the global problems of modern statistics, which was the choice of the topic of this study.

The purpose of the course work: analysis of the demographic situation in the Russian Federation.

Conduct an analysis of time series dynamics of fertility, mortality, and natural increase.

Object of study: population of the Russian Federation.

Subject of research: demographic processes of the population.

Methods of the research: time series models, indicators of natural and mechanical population movement.

1. Analysis of population size and age-sex composition according to population census data

The most important demographic characteristic of a territory is the size of its population. The main source of information on population size is population censuses. Population censuses provide information about the population on a specific date or at a specific point in time. In the intervals between censuses, the population of individual settlements is determined by calculation based on the initial data of the latest census and current statistics on natural and mechanical population movement according to the balance scheme

When determining the population of individual settlements on a certain date, statistics can take into account different categories of the population - permanent and existing. The permanent population of a certain locality includes persons usually residing in this locality, regardless of their actual location at the time of registration (census); cash includes all persons actually present at a given point at the time of recording, regardless of whether their stay at this point is temporary or permanent. Naturally, when taking into account the permanent population, it is always possible to identify a group of those temporarily absent, and vice versa, when taking into account the existing population, it is possible to identify a group of those temporarily present.

Let us analyze the population of the Siberian Federal District using the methodology of time series analysis. One of the most important areas of analysis of time series is the study of the features of the development of a phenomenon over individual periods of time. Analysis of the speed and intensity of the development of a phenomenon over time is carried out using indicators such as absolute growth (D), growth rates (T p) and growth rates (T pr), the absolute value of 1% growth.

Absolute growth - measured as the difference between two levels of the dynamics series, has the same dimension as the levels of the dynamics series itself. Absolute increases can be chain and basic, depending on the method of choosing a base for comparison:

chain absolute increase:

where is the value of the level of the i-th period,

The value of the level of the previous period.

base absolute increase:

D= y i - y 0 ( 2)

where is the value of the base period level.

Absolute growth characterizes the size of the increase (or decrease) in the level of a series over a certain period of time.

demographic indicator birth rate mortality

Growth rate is a relative indicator resulting from dividing two levels of one row by each other. The growth rate is an indicator of the intensity of change in the level of the series. Growth rates can be calculated as chain ones, when each level of the series is compared with the level preceding it:

·100%, (3)

or as basic, when all levels of a series are compared with the same level selected as the basis of comparison:

Growth rates can be presented as ratios or as percentages. The growth coefficient shows how many times a given level of a series is greater than the base one (if this coefficient is greater than one) or what part of the base level is the level of the current period for a certain period of time (if it is less than one).

For a relative assessment of absolute growth, growth rate indicators are calculated.

The growth rate is a relative indicator showing by what percentage one level of the dynamics series is greater (or less) than another, taken as the basis for comparison.

Basic growth rates:

Chain growth rates:

If we divide the absolute growth (chain) by the growth rate (chain) for the corresponding period, we obtain an indicator called the absolute value of one percent of growth. It also represents one hundredth of the base level.

(7)

The absolute value of one percent of growth serves as an indirect measure of the base level and, together with the growth rate, allows us to calculate the absolute increase in the level for the period under consideration.

Based on the indicators of changes in the levels of the dynamics series (absolute increases, growth rates and growth rates), obtained as a result of the analysis of the original series, general indicators can be calculated in the form of average values ​​- average absolute increase, average growth rate, average growth rate.

The average absolute increase can be obtained using one of the formulas:

or (8)

Where n- number of levels of the dynamics series;

- the last level of the dynamics series.

This indicator makes it possible to establish how much on average per unit time the level of a series should increase (in absolute terms) in order to, starting from the initial level over a given number of periods (for example, years), reach the final level. The defining property of the indicator of average absolute growth that interests us in this formulation of the problem is the total absolute growth for the entire period, which limits the dynamics series.

A summary general characteristic of the intensity of change in the levels of a dynamic series is the average growth rate, which shows how many times the level of the dynamic series has changed on average per unit of time.

The need to calculate the average growth rate arises due to the fact that growth rates fluctuate from year to year. In addition, the average growth rate often needs to be determined in cases where data are available on the level at the beginning and end of a period, but intermediate data are not available.

The average growth rate can be determined using the formulas:

(9)

The average growth rate cannot be determined directly from successive growth rates or average absolute growth rates. To calculate it, you must first find the average growth rate and then reduce it by one, or 100%.

(10)

To conduct an in-depth analysis of population dynamics, indicators of the speed and intensity of changes in levels should be used in parallel. An analysis based on the use of any one of these indicators will inevitably be one-sided.

Table 1 - Population dynamics of the Russian Federation

	Population, million people	Absolute growth, million people		Growth rate, %		Rate of increase,%		Absolute value of 1% increase, million people.
		basic		basic		basic

Thus, the population of the Russian Federation for 2001-2013. decreased by 3 million people. or by 2.1%. It can be noted that until 2008 the population was continuously declining and in 2003-2008 it decreased by 3 million people. or 2.4%, but after 2008 it began to increase and during 2008-2013 it grew by 0.5 million people. (see Fig. 1).

One of the main sources of population data is the population census, which was last conducted in 2010.

According to the All-Russian Population Census, conducted as of October 14, 2010, the permanent population of the Russian Federation was 142.9 million people.

The census took into account 90 thousand citizens of the Russian Federation who were abroad on the census date in connection with a long business trip through government bodies and members of their households living with them (107 thousand in 2002).

In addition, the census took into account 489 thousand people who were temporarily (less than 1 year) in the territory of the Russian Federation and permanently living abroad (in 2002 - 239 thousand people).

The Russian Federation ranks eighth place in the world by population after China (1335 million people), India (1210 million people), USA (309 million people), Indonesia (238 million people), Brazil (191 million people), Pakistan (165 million people) ) and Bangladesh (147 million people).

Compared to the 2002 population census, the population decreased by 2.3 million people, including in urban settlements - by 1.1 million people, in rural areas - by 1.2 million people.

Table 2 - Changes in the population of the Russian Federation according to the 2002 and 2010 census data.

The ratio of urban and rural residents in 2010 was 74% and 26%, respectively.

The population of the Russian Federation lives in 2,386 urban settlements (cities and urban-type settlements) and 134 thousand rural settlements.

Changes in the distribution of the urban population are characterized by the following data (Table 3).

Table 3 - The ratio of the urban and rural population of the Russian Federation according to the 2002 and 2010 census data.

Grouping of urban settlements	Number of urban settlements		Number of inhabitants in them, thousand people		2010 as a percentage of 2002 by number of inhabitants	Number of residents, % of total
Total cities of which with the number of inhabitants (thousands of people):
20 or more

93% of the urban population lives in cities (in 2002 - 90%), the rest of the urban population lives in urban-type settlements.