Economist, director of the regional program of the Independent Institute for Social Policy Natalia Zubarevich delivered a lecture at the London club "Open Russia" on "The crisis in Russia - a regional projection: what to expect and what to prepare for".

Natalya Zubarevich: Let me tell you what is really happening in Russia. I will try to draw a picture so that you more clearly understand what to expect and what to prepare for.

Another crisis in Russian history - not the first, but completely new. In general, we had different crises. The first crisis, as we remember (the youth does not remember), is a transformational one. It was very difficult to move from plan to market. This transition took four years. He was the heaviest.

The second and third crises were global. We were not lucky, because it hit everyone and hit us. These were not internal Russian crises - we were hurt. Although there was domestic debt in 1998, they accumulated debt with their warm hands. But anyway, it was the Asian crisis, but it flew to us.

But this crisis, a new one, began as an internal one. Since 2013, the industry stopped growing, investments began to fall, debts of the regional budgets began to accumulate sharply and grow. We created this crisis by the peculiarities of our institutional design, our climate, our decisions.

And only then, in the second half of 2014, did oil prices skyrocket. In 2015, prices for non-ferrous metals, coal, fell by a quarter, now - for iron ore, for cellulose. That is, it began to be added, added, and our export industry now does not feel ideal, with the exception of chemists - they are more or less fine so far.

But the bottom line is that this crisis began as an internal one. This is a crisis of bad institutions. This is a crisis, I would say, the end of the old growth model. And the oil has already just sealed it.

Compare how hard it goes. I understand that the farther from Russia, the stronger the apocalyptic feeling. Relax. To make you relax, compare the rates of decline. Here is the dynamics of industrial production.

First crisis. Like? More than double down. Dynamics of incomes of the population.

Second Crisis. Look at the dynamics of the population's income - a quarter at once. See what we have in 2015. Yes, the industry is the recession of 2009. Feel the difference? Well, yes, problems. As in the old joke: well, horror, but not horror-horror-horror! This is a slow crisis. Its problem is that it is long. It will not end according to the “fell-wrung out” scheme - this must be very clearly understood. This crisis is long, yes. It will stretch.

And when it slowly gets worse, worse, slowly, it leads to the most terrible thing - addiction. And when you get used to it, and you stop resisting, and every time you adjust to what you have, it ends in degradation. That is the risk of this crisis. Addiction, adaptation to the worst and degradation - this is the most dangerous thing in it.

Let's look at geography. She is very curious. During the transformational crisis of the 1990s, the Soviet manufacturing industry, as expected, fell - it was uncompetitive. And the underdeveloped republics, in which this industry was generally induced, fell - such was the Soviet experience of industrialization. And the oil and gas industry felt normal in the regions. And then, by the mid-1990s, metallurgical industries also came in - they crawled out for export, they succeeded.

The second crisis is the crisis, first of all, of the gigantic Russian debt. It hit Moscow; the periphery did not notice much. Because banks were pouring in Moscow, prices were rising everywhere, but in Moscow even more clearly.

The third crisis is mainly an internal one - the uncompetitive Russian engineering industry - and a global one. Because metallurgists were the first to fall. In November-December 2009, the metallurgical regions showed a decline, you know what? Minus 35, minus 40: this is serious, this is for real. The blast furnaces were just on strike. It was very tough.

And there were territories that did not notice this crisis at all. The Far East flew through it just like an airplane - everything is fine, we are preparing for the APEC summit, we are building a pipeline, we have a very decent subsidy, "everything is fine, beautiful marquise." And underdeveloped republics - no problem. You had a subsidy of 70-80%, so it has not gone away.

And now there is a new crisis. It is already viewed geographically as follows. Firstly, for the first time, modern machine-building regions flew off - this is the auto industry, a new one that came to us together with Western companies, high-tech; he stumbled over the ceiling of effective demand. People don't have money to buy it.

The second is our semi-depressive mechanical engineering. Every crisis beats them. But who is in the pluses, look: import substitution by import substitution - you can sing about it for a long time, but ... In general, to be honest, the point is not only the ban on the import of European Union products, but, first of all, the ratio of the ruble and the dollar.

Import substitution is really happening in our country; people are getting poorer, they can no longer buy another. The agrarian south is doing well. Yes, there are problems, but against the backdrop of the country, he is better off.

The oil and gas industry, our indestructible everything - either zero, like Khanty and Yamal, or pluses, like new deposits: I mean Sakhalin, Nenets, Yakutia - there is growth.

And, finally, enchantingly, for the first time in 25 years, the regions of the military-industrial complex are growing. There the question is very clear: how much money, so much growth. All of these are public investments. No private business is investing there. How much money the budget has enough, so much they will grow.

There are three most difficult moments in this crisis.

First of all, these are budgetary problems.

These are investment issues. A country that has been reducing investment for three years in a row (and Russia is like that), and at an increasing pace, is a country that is shrinking its future. No investment - no new jobs.

And the third is a very strong consumption crisis. People began to consume significantly less, even compared to how their incomes fell: people got scared.

It must be understood that this is to a lesser extent an industrial crisis. It is not about factories, although there are problematic ones. But that's not what collapsed. The industry was partially affected. And this is definitely not yet a crisis about unemployment. There are other forms. The standard “factory stopped, everyone lost their jobs” is not about this crisis.

Before explaining, I will enlighten you very briefly. In 2015, the federal budget got up. In 2015, he ended the year for the first time with a $2 trillion deficit. This is a lot.

What is the problem? 37% - customs duties, their share in income. Customs duties fell by 40%. They are based on oil and gas duties. And imports have decreased in Russia by almost 40%, and these duties have gone down. What remained was the mineral extraction tax. But until recently, there was no budget deficit in 2014, because the mechanism worked. Here is the oil price going down. The federal budget, which collects almost all the rent from oil prices, is losing. And at the same time, the ruble is falling in your country, and the federal budget collects more rubles due to this. This is how they balanced almost until the end of 2014.

In 2015, this raspberry ended, because the ruble fell slightly. But he fell even now, in January 2016. So, cycle number 8 - again, we'll balance it a little.

The budget will feel bad, but it will not die, and it certainly will not squander all the reserves. And, believe me, the reserves will be saved like you can - cut expenses.

Now look at how the process of cutting costs is going. So I named the deficit for 2015 - almost 2 trillion. Now look at what we have with income, what with expenses.

Federal budget revenues decreased by 5%; at the same time, oil and gas companies by 18%, but others, not oil and gas companies, grew by 8% - inflation helped, income tax in rubles grew.

Now look at the costs. They grew by 16%. Until we balance. What started to balance? These disadvantages are culture, healthcare, education. But here's the red arrow on purpose: security and law enforcement have already begun to cut these costs as well. Everything! Life forces. So far, defense spending is in fantastic pluses (plus 35 in 2015). My forecast for 2016 is that they will shrink, there is nowhere to go. What they will definitely not compress, and you will now explain to me why, is the cost of physical education and sports, plus 75%.

What is the reason? What, we love physical education and sports so much? Championship - he, dear! This is an inexhaustible obligation - you will have to finance. And it would be necessary to slow down, but no way: by 2018, the stadiums should be built. Now look at the three quarters of 2015.

That's the federal budget we blinded. More than 21% - defense, more than 12% - national security: that is, a little more than a third - social policy. There are two things sitting there - these are transfers to federal beneficiaries, which fall within federal competence, and a transfer Pension fund which grows every year.

You can see how little the federal budget spends on the reproduction of human capital - this is basically what the regions should do. My forecast for 2016 is that the national defense will have to be cut down. There will be fewer militant statements, because "I don't care about fat, I would live."

So that you understand how Russian regions live. It seems that everything is gathered in the center; but it is not so. If we take only tax revenues without duties, then the ratio is almost 50/50.

Both regional people and the opposition like to say that all the money was taken up. Oil rent was taken upstairs to make it clear. She grew up a lot, and she was selected upstairs. This is normal - it then needs to be redistributed. See how dependent the regions are on transfers (everyone understands the word “transfer”? This is a transfer from the federal budget). The red share is Medvedev's national projects. You can see how the transfer was added: it was 0.6%, it became 1.2%. We walked around the buffet on big oil money very well. We have increased expenses so that you are my mother! Look, here is the crisis of 2009: 1.2-1.6%, transfers to the regions increased by a third. So that's why they skipped. Every year the volume of transfers physically, in rubles, excluding inflation, is reduced. Regions have to adapt to the contraction - commitments are already inflated.

When we have inflated obligations, in addition to national projects, the main ones were presidential decrees on wage increases. Moreover, they were made in such a way that 70% of the costs fell on the shoulders of the regions. And only 30% was added by the federal budget. The regions got out as best they could - they had to be very tough to account for the decrees. Result: three years of deficit.

Thank God, in 2015 there are the same number of regions, but the deficit is smaller - about 191 billion.

But look: 2015 is ending, and what is the scale of the deficit? There are regions where it is under 20% or more. This is destabilization. Why is this picture bad? The fact that the regions have been in crisis for the third year, their budgets have been unbalanced for the third year. This is a very bad management situation. And how it will be resolved is not completely clear; while she is hanging. Some amount of money is thrown in, the toughest problems are sorted out somehow, but all the same it flounders in an unbalanced state.

What should the regions do? They crawl, occupy. This picture for me is Russia. Why? First, everything is different - you see. Second, pay attention to red and green. Red is loans from commercial banks. These are expensive loans, they have to be repaid, they are usually short. And green is budget credits. And even if you have some wonderful Chukotka - and it is wonderful, with a level of debt that is almost equal to its own income, without transfers from its budget; Chukotka can score on everything.

What is a budget loan? This is a loan that has been issued at a rate of 0.5% per annum since this year. Are you economically literate people? Can you imagine the scale of inflation in Russia? This year there will be 14. And it can be extended - at least for 10 or even 20 years. And for those who got this green one well, you can not be upset, no matter what the scale of their debt. They will agree with the federal budget.

And someone was not lucky, for someone this debt is presented in red - loans from a commercial bank. And here are the big questions. And this once again shows the clearing - a huge number of regions, all of them have a different type of management: someone gets into debt, someone shrinks.

Accordingly, it is clear that the situation is very different. Therefore, it cannot be said that in Russia there is a total crisis of everything and everything: it is not so. The situation is differentiated.

Here is a picture of the last deficit in 2015. Where are the risks sitting? In an area where there is a high deficit and a high debt-to-earnings ratio. This is already more than half of the regions. We'll see what's next. While the situation is somehow collapsing. But the problem is that it cannot be destroyed indefinitely. One of the ways to resolve is big inflation. You know, inflation always devalues ​​debt - we'll see. While the problems are serious, but not explosive. In manual mode, the Ministry of Finance somehow resolves them.

See how diverse the income situation is. They are different. Income tax is very good in some regions. Because the costs are in rubles, if this is export production, and the profit is in foreign currency; then you're doing pretty well.

See what happens to spending. I won't comment, just showing you how different things are. And someone has a disaster.

And the situation is also very different in terms of costs. Regions cut costs, but not all. In general, in Russia, to be honest, federalism is real. We always thought - vertical, vertical, but as soon as you start counting money and watching how the regions behave, you begin to see that everyone is getting out as best they can. And the feds are behaving differently too.

Look here: the level of subsidization of the regions - so that you understand how different they are. Here is Moscow - almost none. There Khanty, Yamal. And this is our wonderful North Caucasus. And the last - Crimea, in 2015. Somewhere in the middle - the North Caucasus: this is how it turns out, everything is different.

Why is it important to look at the regions? Because you somehow look vertically, very politicized, what is in the Kremlin. This is important, but the essential life of people primarily takes place in the regions. Look at the share of expenditures for social purposes in all expenditures of the regional budgets. For some, this has long been under 80%, while others live quietly, calmly. Tyumen region- rich. Sakhalin is also very rich. And Chukotka, which received a very good deal of transfers this year. But she decided that why should she spend on people, and she spent it on infrastructure.

Therefore, the country is different, but the bulk shows that the burden of social spending is very high. When your situation is unstable, expenses are greater than income, what begins is what begins - the cutting of expenses.

Look at what we have in the social network: so far there is data for January-October, but I just transfer it to you in rubles without taking into account inflation. Spending on culture - minus 43 regions, education - 41 and more.

See how different the situation is? The country is made up of very different vectors, the country must be understood and known. I would warn you against a hasty, one-dimensional feeling that everything is disgusting, or everything is wonderful, or nothing changes - everything is different, and this must be understood. There are common problems, but in general, the policy of the regional authorities is quite diverse, it is somehow trying to adapt. Another thing is how it will adapt on the eve of the elections: it’s not good at all to cut spending on social protection, but it’s possible for education, and for healthcare too, there are some schemes there; therefore, the Russians will have to adapt to the deterioration.

Now about the real economy. How is the Russian crisis going? I would like to understand how long it will be. Here is the industrial dynamics for you, here is the dynamics of the manufacturing industry: you fell, did push-ups and lie down. I have the latest data for December. What flies in the form of investments - rested, again began to fall. If we take the second group - construction - look at the decline: it began to fall very strongly in November-December, so now it is already at the level of a low base. And, finally, the hardest thing: real incomes - they jump, jump, now the base effect is back in December.

Now look at consumption and wages. Wages are already at 10%, and consumption has not subsided yet. We thought that was it, we were already tensed up - nothing like that: the next stage of the fall. Do you know why? This is also a base effect. Who was in Moscow in November-December 2014 - what did the capital and its environs do? I bought everything I could, and here the base effect worked.

Now look how our economy finished the year in 2015-2014. Everything is moderate: GDP - 4%, industry - 3%, processing - 5%, Agriculture on the plus side, the effects of import substitution work, but the euro-ruble-dollar effect works no less, it has become very expensive to buy many things.

What fell in Russia? In Russia, exports fell in value terms, but not in volumes, we exported more oil, but here I didn’t even have enough column - 38%, imports fell. We are a country that compresses consumption in everything, including imports; we fence ourselves off because we are victorious, and not just because we have banned imports. Now the situation, which, for example, I am very afraid of: this is the situation of autarky, an impoverished country. Look, investments - 8%, growing, construction at the end of the year was also - 8-10%, that's the worst thing, for the year retail - 10%, wages - 10%, income - 4%. And there were no problems with unemployment until 2015, it even decreased by 6% and grew by 7% for the whole of 2015. Do you know what Russian unemployment is at the end of 2015? Well, who understands, its level in Spain, but in the same Britain - 5.8%, the normal level is 5%, to make it clear, in Spain it is over 20% - this is our crisis.

Now let's see how it goes around the country. With investments, everything is clear: the country is losing an investor and investments, and not foreign ones - that's all! See how the center, the northwest, the entire Urals and half of the Volga region sank. But the most curious is Siberia.

We were going to turn east; you say - but the Far East is good. I answer: in the Far East, these enchanting pluses are given by regions in which there has never been investment. Amurskaya is a cosmodrome on state money, and in Magadan, when you had nothing ... An apple plus an apple - two apples, in dynamics, how many percent growth? Hundred, here we are watching it. Large regions - look, Khabarovsk Territory, Primorsky Territory, large, real-economic, Yakutia - is everything clear?

If we look at 51 regions, where does the money go? This is about turning east. Here are the data for January-September; There is no third quarter of the year yet. Far East - 7%, North Caucasus - 3%. 0.3% is Crimean federal district, because his investment does not go through these schemes, and there the money is mainly only for the bridge. The bridge is really actively financed, no problem, if you take in the regional section, do you understand where the money goes? But the reproduction of oil and gas - money always goes to Tyumen, the capital of our country. Tatarstan, the Moscow region, the Krasnodar Territory, even St. Petersburg - look how he moved. Apparently, those who make decisions in Moscow have taken root. And Peter went to the periphery, that is, this is not about the Far East at all, no turn to the east in Russian Federation it doesn’t work, enough whistling about the locomotive. There is no investor there. Let's see what will happen next; Nothing yet.

Here is the construction. Look at what happened in 2014 - blue, and look at what happened in January-November 2015. You can relax about the south - this is a burp of the Olympics, they invested a lot, and then for two years in a row it all falls, nothing is being built there, there are no Olympic facilities.

But I draw your attention to the Ural Federal District. Western Siberia is assigned to the Urals, for a moment, the Tyumen region with districts. Understand what the risks are? We do not even reproduce the oil base in Russia as a whole: you see how sad everything is.

Northwest, Crimea - construction is growing, Moscow is still holding on. And Peter, for example, has already crumbled with his construction very thoroughly. Moscow is also holding on because, if you look at the spending structure of its budget, it's killer. Spending on the national economy grew by 24%, and spending on general education - by 10%, only in kindergartens they left. Health care costs - 8%, the authorities are introducing roads, building transitions in the subway; and the Moscow authorities save on social expenses, on human capital.

So what is modern Russia? This is how they consumed in 2014 compared to 2013. The last two months of convulsive consumption, shopping, everyone who has little money - buckwheat, who has more - a new gadget, who has even more - the last car from the showcase of a car dealership. I know a man who came to an expert party and said: “Yes! I took the last one from the display! And who had even more money - some fools bought an investment apartment, but now they will deal with it, it was impossible to do this. Some people borrowed and bought a mortgage or something else for the last time. Now in Russia there will be a lot of interesting things, because economically responsible behavior is still unattainable for many Russians. But most importantly - see how everything hit. The whole country was covered by the strongest drop in income. I had a meeting with an American expert, he said: “Such a fall - will people protest?” The answer from my side was purely Russian: “Right now!”.

People will shrink and adapt because the drop in income was not as strong. Fall on regions - 6-8%. There is simply no need to believe the data on the wonderful Republic of Ingushetia, it makes no sense to count incomes there, you simply won’t count anything.

But the bottom line is that it seems that consumption has been squeezed at a faster rate than the decline in income. This is our everything, this is our Russian way, our entire history of the twentieth century taught us this for sure: if something breaks down, save as much as you can - you will survive. Save as much as you can - which is what the country is doing now. And no protests. Discontent is growing, irritation is growing, everything is true, but the answer to this is super simple: “What did you want? Enemies are all around, and oil has fallen.” And this answer is perceived, people understand. Life is like a zebra: black, white. Well, a black streak has come - and they will adapt.

Now for the industry: the pink one is manufacturing, and the blue one is all. See how everything is different? 34 regions have just fallen, well, there will be 41. Everything is different, there are growing regions, so this is not about a total industrial crisis - it's about something else.

What will happen next? There are understandable risks: these are the risks associated with the fact that the Russian industry is very dependent on the import of components, and they have all risen in price. In our country, intermediate imports in certain sectors, even in the food industry, can reach 40%.

Even in the agricultural sector, we import seed material, we import some growth accelerators, and so on. You will laugh - we import a genetic egg, our poultry farms work on an imported genetic egg. And a lot of seeds are imported.

About the industry - well, what can you say? Automotive industry - 70% of the cost will be for imported parts and components, so this is a problem, how it will go - I do not understand; have to follow. Because, in principle, you cannot raise the price of your products in accordance with the fall of the ruble, because there is already a ceiling of effective demand: you will not sell it. The industry is struggling to adapt, but there will be a squeeze. In general, I believe that in 2016, most likely, the contraction will accelerate, but it is still very difficult to understand in which sectors.

The second is loans. This is a big problem - they are very expensive. But this problem can also be circumvented. For example, in 2015, the Russian military-industrial complex, our military-industrial complex, the defense industry complex was directly financed from the federal budget without any stupid bank loans. They gave an advance payment - go ahead and with a song! Came around and solved the problem. Now the key “chip” is how effective demand will continue to fall both in the economy of enterprises and among the population. Therefore, who will definitely remain “in the pros” for the time being is the export resource industries. Our raw material export component will increase during this crisis, the flux will grow. Because, no matter how prices fall, there are questions about the ruble related to exports to China. Will the Chinese buy more or, conversely, cut back. No matter how global prices for their products fall, the ruble per last year more than doubled. Accordingly, costs in rubles, profit in foreign currency - this is an indestructible advantage.

Let's talk about unemployment so that you understand what kind of country we are and what awaits us. We have no unemployment in very many regions. I won't say anything about the North Caucasus - there are just very few jobs there. Exactly the same in wonderful Tuva. In underdeveloped territories, jobs are not created, and the population is arriving. The rest are not so scary.

What dampens? In Russia, the first and main format of cost reduction is not the release of workers, but the reduction of their wages. Business, in general, does not care whether to fire a person or drastically reduce his earnings. Costs are cut in both cases. Here is our main model. So far, the problem is not very strong. In the third quarter (figures for the year are not yet available) of 2015, downtime and part-time work in the region as a whole are quite small, although it is clear that Kaluga is worse than Tver, Ivanovo. And here is the second format - holidays without saving the content. They are not mixed in statistics. Chelyabinsk, Sverdlovsk, Perm Territory - problems are also growing there, but there are still opportunities to increase part-time employment. Everyone was sent on vacation. Now AvtoVAZ has gone on vacation for a couple of weeks.

Part-time work week - it's all with a drop in wages. And it is still possible to do so. The question is to what? to the essential. I always thought it was such an industrial tool. In industry, people were sent on vacation, and they sit at home, eat potatoes. But when I found out that 15% of us work part-time in the hotel and restaurant sector… That is, this trend moved to the service sector. You do not want to lose staff, but there is no client, so you save as much as you can. We are very well trained in such schemes and transfer them to other sectors of the economy.

The second damper is our age structure. Those who were 15 in 2011 are now about 19. A few more years and they will enter the labor market. See the difference? Is this difference clear? Population at certain ages. These guys have already entered the labor market. A very small generation enters the labor market, and it will remain so for the rest of this decade and beyond. During a crisis, the pressure on the labor market from young people is reduced. The summer of 2016 will be critical for me. I will try to see if the university graduates managed to find a job. More or less succeeded last year.

But look who is leaving the labor market. These are those who are 55-60 years old. Look how big this generation is. They themselves are not eager to leave, they would still work. But it is easy to fire them - they are pensioners. And you see what's the difference? This is the second damper. The first is part-time employment, and the second is the demographic situation in Russia. And this picture will last at least another 5-6 years. It will alleviate unemployment.

I show you what we will have in working age. This is not my forecast - this is Rosstat. Look at the decline in the working-age population: we will have minus 10 million people.

There are three scenarios here. Unrealistic - it will be so if the balance of migration (profit minus loss) will be plus 600 thousand per year. And this is the middle, according to Rosstat, plus 400 thousand, and this is the worst option - plus 200 thousand. Then we will have minus 12%.

So, according to the results of 2015, the net migration balance in Russia will be about 240,000, which is already much closer to this scenario. If there was some kind of economic growth now, I would advise everyone to go to Russia and look for work. But in a crisis, this is salvation, and the labor market is not under pressure.

It is also important to understand what the Russian labor market is. Here it is all structured. Here is unemployment recorded in general form. Here are large and medium-sized enterprises and organizations, I drew them in millions. The number of employees is reduced every year. The Russian "krupnyak" and medium-sized enterprises are pushing people out, optimizing. These are small businesses and legal entities. This is an IP, that is, private traders. But this is no longer 17-18 million. I gave you the figure for 2012; no more precise data are available at present. This is already under 20 million people. Already under a quarter Russian market labor is informally employed. What does it mean? People are somehow interrupted. The same truckers, some of them are also informals. They sit in the shade and do not pay taxes. Why did they arise so much about this road? They fix you when you pass. And this damper also reduces pressure. Squeezed out from somewhere - went into informal employment. And this will also mitigate pressure, including political. People are looking for something. Who sells mushrooms and berries, who else does something, who is engaged in carting. The Russians are spinning as best they can.

And finally, what to expect in this crisis? This crisis will be different not only in duration. It is really long, it is not for a year, not for two. We don't know how long, but it's long. And in terms of speed, it is much slower than the previous ones. I have named budgets, investments, consumption reduction.

But it is also geographically different. We are accustomed to consider recession as a crisis industrial production, rising unemployment - and that's it, a disaster. Yes, it will show up somewhere. There are enterprises that are already feeling bad. First, machine-building regions. The worst situation now is in the automotive industry and car building. These are often more modernized industries, but there is no demand - last year demand fell, so another quarter of the fall in the automotive industry, and 40-45% remained in car building, more than half of production fell.

We used to say: "Yes, it will be a depressed machine-building region." Now I would add that, perhaps, there will be problems in the manufacturing industry Far East generally. There is not so much of it there, but what goes, goes very much on budget money. Even what seems to be private. Sollers, together with Toyota, assemble cars at the facilities of the Far East Machine Building Plant. The locals do not buy them, and the federal budget pays a special subsidy for the transportation of these cars from the Far East beyond Baikal, closer to Western Siberia, so that at least someone would take them. Locals believe that this is not something that should be taken. Gadgets twisted Russian knobs. But, nevertheless, this crisis decline in industrial production will increase. Unemployment risks will increase, but more or less slowly.

But we have the tools and we have the experience. During the crisis of 2009-2010, active measures to support employment proved to be quite normal. They are not so expensive - the increase in these measures was about 50 billion rubles. To make it clear to you how much is spent annually on the Crimean bridge: there is an annual estimate of 50 billion rubles. And for the same 50 billion throughout the country to deploy active support for employment is a penny. You get an unfortunate 4-5 thousand, but it's something. This has been worked out instrumentally, and the population knows how to survive. Therefore, it is clear that it will be worse, but I do not feel any explosions here yet. Moreover, I hasten to add that in the south this crisis is actually passing more easily. But as for the Far East, unlike in 2009, I would not say this, and even more so about Siberia.

Will there be political trials? If there are sharp strong layoffs, then yes, but they will be short-term. But there are no fools. All these schemes are debugged. Dismissed in the real sector very carefully, little by little. The tail of the dog is cut off neatly. Therefore, there are no mass protests. I don't feel like there will be many. Well, they will poke somewhere, they will add it somewhere. But it is unlikely to be something massive.

We agreed that this crisis is long-term. And for the first time this crisis will truly affect all the largest agglomerations. Not only Moscow, like the crisis of 1998, when banking sector died, and problems began, but also not for everyone.

The main problem was with the currency. See what's happening. I showed you the sector of market services - in consumption alone, in retail - minus 13% month on month, and retail and all trade is one in four employed in Moscow, in wholesale and retail. Every fourth! Construction flies capitally. Thank God, guest worker employment can be regulated there. They are widely represented in construction and retail..

If we are talking about what they will continue to fall, - a decrease in income and effective demand. January 2016 has not been cancelled. Do you remember how the course flew in January 2016? The second round of the currency crisis. What's happening? Compression of the sector of market services. This is the main type of employment in the Russian Federation for large and largest cities - the sector of market and public services. There is a felling, cost reduction.

Children's question: where are the most schools? Where are the most hospitals? Where are the most clinics? In large and major cities. It's just that their concentration is higher there. Accordingly, when you have two types of compression superimposed - both market services and budget services, what is called public goods, and you do not have structural tools. Do you think that for 4 thousand someone will go to fight in a big city? No.

And yet, the tool is there. And you know this instrument very well, as, probably, you lived or were in Russia not so long ago. It's more economical active population. These are people with higher human capital, people who are more adaptive. They will start to stir and look for something else. What is happening in Moscow. But this is a significant reduction in your salary and status expectations. You find by losing salaries and status.

It is unlikely that there will be a large increase in unemployment. But people will start taking the worst jobs. What does it mean? In large cities, a quasi-middle class was formed. Half of the Russian middle class is officials and their families. But the non-bureaucratic part, which is more educated, which earns better - it has changed its way of life. She already somehow behaves differently, she knows how to go somewhere to rest, she consumes paid medical services and even paid education, and even abroad. And now she's starting to have a hard time. Either you shrink - you just won't buy a TV once every five years, but you will buy it once every eight. If you are completely below, you will buy a kilogram less buckwheat and two pairs less shoes.

You are used to a new, "modern" type of consumption, but it is no longer available to you. And this survival strategy dominates in Russia. People reduce not just salary claims. People are transforming their way of life, which was a tool of modernization, towards a tool of survival, simple and gloomy. Change of lifestyle from developing to survival. For those who can, who are competitive, migration is noticeably developing. This is especially noticeable in the IT sphere, and not only. I know the situation in IT a little better - people there are quite actively leaving.

And again, my question is about political protest. Will big cities be unhappy? Moscow University won't be fired entirely, right? And even the entire GUM-TSUM will not be fired. Doctors left when they cut down the number of those actively employed in hospitals - 300-400 people left; no one supported them, because the public sector is dependent. You left - tomorrow you will be removed. And suddenly it turns out that the urban environment, which two or three years ago gave a request for modernity, for transformation, in this crisis begins to behave, most likely, in exactly the same way as average industrial cities behave. The only difference is that people have a much wider range of opportunities for adaptation. But the key "trick" is the same - adaptation takes place at the household level, without the use of collective action. This loan passes according to the standard Russian model of survival at all levels.

What does it mean? If we used to think that our everything is advanced large-city Russia, every fifth Russian lives there. Now 21%. Another 11% are cities with a population of half a million or more. There is also a rural periphery where more potatoes will be planted. Urban-type settlements are about the same, if they are not beyond the Arctic Circle. Industrial Russia is a Russia that will demand protection and care from the state, and the state will meet it halfway, because here is the key electorate. But the Russia of large cities, as we thought, would develop, modernize and try to change the political design of the system.

My feeling during this crisis is exactly the opposite. Apparently, the advanced and educated population of large cities is ready to give requests for changing the system when it is “in the pros”, when it develops, when it has a drive. And then it says: "Yes, we want it differently." But when everything falls, everything shrinks, our Soviet instinct is restored - to survive in small groups. Friends, relatives, bonding support for absolutely small groups.

Such a sad thing I told you. What does it mean? This means that in the next five to seven years, with a very high probability, there will be social degradation. Not only in terms of spending on education, health care - don't go to a fortuneteller here, everything is clear here. What scares me the most is that confinement in burrows, a sense of self-reliance, "household Juche" will also worsen the social environment. It is clear that not for everyone; there will always be sprouts. But we are starting to slow down very much in the process that I really hoped for - in the process of social integration in advanced environments. It will be much more difficult for him now. Those who are connected with mercy and charity complain very much. It has become much more difficult. But still, this process cannot be stopped, we have entered a pause, we have even entered a rollback. There is nothing linear, progressive. This process must be experienced. When it ends, I don't know. But socially we slow down. And if we take the entire society of the country, then we are in for a certain period of degradation. You have to be ready for this. Sorry for such a sad ending. Note that I did not use the word “politics”: I tried to talk about processes in society and the economy. I'm not a political scientist, the question is not for me. But here is the “substrate” that is being formed, I tried to describe to you.

Question from the floor:

Why does a depreciation of the national currency not lead to an increase in investment in export-oriented sectors? No foreign direct investment, not even domestic investment. I'm not talking about the oil and gas industry, but about the real industry.

Natalya Zubarevich:

Foreign direct investment over the past year amounted to 10% of previous years, that is, they fell 10 times. The risks of investing are off scale, so there are few real violent ones, including among investors. Do not want.

With domestic investment, not everything is so simple. Big oil and gas business continues to invest in existing fields to maintain production volumes, but slows down all new projects that will pay off in the long term. And they invest in current ones because they need cash flow. They don't invest in processing and stuff for the simple reason that no one can calculate the economy correctly. You don’t understand, if you have an export picture, how much is the cost, and how much is the profit. If you deliver inside the country, then what is the effective demand? In the conditions of uncertainty in business (and in Russia there is a very high uncertainty), there is a rule of "good". Here they fit.

Question from the floor:

How over-credited is the Russian economy?

Natalya Zubarevich:

The government has minimal debt. Business and bank loans were high, which is why December 2014 happened, when there were more than 500 billion dollars, now 300-odd. They lead a very careful policy. First of all, these are loan repayments. And 2015 was already not so difficult in terms of the intensity of returns compared to December 2014, which then brought down the dollar due to the fact that Rosneft borrowed a lot. Yes, they are, but payments on them have ceased to be critical for companies. Banks are still uncomfortable because they can't borrow. Here it affects. And the volume of loans to companies and banks has become much more moderate.

Question from the floor:

Good Western economists say that in the near future the main global problem will be a strong fall in China. If this happens, how much will it affect?

Natalya Zubarevich:

Firstly, this will definitely affect the coal miners, because more than half of the Trans-Siberian Railway's load is coal exports to China. So it will also affect railway, because the deceleration of the economy is a decrease in demand for a resource. Metallurgists no longer have a Chinese metal exporter. It used to be imported, but now not so much. For example, the same Evraz factories in Kemerovo, working in the East, it will be more difficult for them. Demand for non-ferrous metals will fall. This is the problem of Norilsk Nickel, the Krasnoyarsk Territory and the Murmansk Region. The copper workers have the same Norilsk Nickel, the Sverdlovsk region has the same export copper industry.

It will be worse for all Russian exporters. And how will Rosneft behave, which pledged oil sales to China for 20 years in advance ... She gets her money ... How to politely say ... They are hedged. But this will come back to haunt the entire Russian export sector. We are not talking about individual product groups, but about a general decline in demand. But, frankly, 6% growth ... so I live like that! Although we do not really believe these figures.

Question from the floor:

Does the policy of exporting capital provide any real advantages for solving internal Russian situations?

Natalya Zubarevich:

I am not a macroeconomist, but I remember the figure. Last year it was an outflow of 150 billion. But do not forget that these were also debt payments. This year they expect 50 billion, significantly less. Because there are fewer payments on the debt, and they began to pull out, apparently, also less. Everything we could already. The main thing is that there is a very important component - it is debt payments.

Therefore, there is an outflow of capital, but there are also returns, and re-registration, deoffshorization, and the bringing of people from top management teams to Russia.

Question from the floor:

A question about the banking sector….

Natalya Zubarevich:

Not a banker, I won't even comment. I know that all the people who are closer to this sector say that the sector is weak, that there are a lot of problems. But while the state supports the largest ones, And the rest ... You can see for yourself, every week two or three banks are under reorganization. It is believed that three hundred is enough for them, but there were more than a thousand. Well, there are fewer and fewer schools. This is politics.

Question from the floor:

How long can the Reserve Fund last and what will happen when it runs out?

Natalya Zubarevich:

And how will you steer, and how will the devaluation go. I tried to show you that if you drop - or drop not on purpose - the ruble against the dollar, then your ruble revenues in the budget grow.

Yes, every ruble is worth less. But formally, you can cover the budget deficit with an increased amount of rubles, at least in part.

The second is how you will cut expenses. I showed you that even under the article “national security” minus 2% for January-October, our people have already begun to cut down. I believe that next year they will cut it the other way around. Because there will be no such growth. Let's forget about the social sphere.

Thirdly, whom will you cut off from the mother's breast in terms of large companies that were subsidized? Russian Railways did not give large subsidies this year, but what was it like under Yakunin? Half the development program for the development of the Far East, more than 600 billion rubles on request. Do you know how much Russian Railways accounted for there? Three hundred fourty. Whoever is big in Russia has great lobbying opportunities. Because everything is flexible.

For example, I repeat on every corner that the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation is pursuing a very balanced and accurate policy. Another thing is that it is not able to break a stronger resource when it is on top ... As part of their policy, they are trying their best. central bank, I believe, too, although I am not a macroeconomist. But the economic bloc of the government is trying to balance the situation. Therefore, talk about the fact that the reserve fund is being eaten by the end of 2016 is just talk.

A lot will depend on spending policy and exchange rate policy. Therefore, do not rush to bury. I will tell you as a person who has lived in Russia all his conscious life: for some reason my inner voice tells me (perhaps he is mistaken, but he has been for many years) that, in any case, the National Welfare Fund will exist by the presidential elections. Because I don't know the power that goes to the polls without a stash. And there are no fools in Russia. It's just some other mind. But there are no fools. Therefore, do not rush.

Question from the floor:

You have mentioned several times that expenditures in education have decreased by 5% from year to year, but, on the other hand, in the same diagram that shows the age structure of the population, the same thing can be, if you dig deep, in healthcare. Is all this logical? And not so scary?

Natalya Zubarevich:

Universities are being consolidated. Quietly die private universities, which simply do not have an influx of students. Are there Muscovites here? Who knows the geography of Moscow? Does everyone know the Yugo-Zapadnaya metro station? Fine. On the one hand - the Institute of Fine Chemical Technology, further to the Moscow Ring Road, on the other hand - MIREA - the Institute of Radio Engineering, Automation, in short, computer science. And they have just been united according to the logic of the southwest. There will be a single structure with a single accounting department and administrative apparatus. But somehow they cross radio electronics and fine chemistry. And the bottom line is that when you work smart, it's one format. And when you purely mechanically cut costs - 10% reduction in spending on universities, that's all! Estimate what will remain less reduced compared to the general norm? Management apparatus, I assure you. In Russia, there is simply no other way. So, on the one hand, yes, you are right. I agree with you. On the other hand, it all depends on how you operationalize the process. The answer is dumb.

Reply from the audience:

We expect, of course, that it will be stupid ...

Natalya Zubarevich:

I see examples. Although, knowing the system of higher education from the inside and working in it, I can honestly tell you that not only have we not reached the limits of pruning, but we still have to walk for miles across these deserts. I have samples where the average age in the department is 70 years old. I agree, therefore I do not blame, but I warn that the risks of stupid operationalization of the process are high.

Maxim Dbar:

Tell me, in your opinion, are there any regions that can go through this crisis more or less painlessly, or will it be fairly even?

Natalya Zubarevich:

From the point of view of people, their consumption, their life, I do not know such regions. From the point of view of the industry - yes, of course, I showed differentiation. In terms of investment, the process is getting worse. Most likely, it will not be 51%, but more. Such a creeping infection. Even with an increase in the rate of decline. From the point of view of the labor market, I still believe that the population of large cities, even having lost their salary money, will find an alternative, but in smaller places ... Well, get used to it, or what? Tire service in the yard...

Maxim Dbar:

And if there is nothing to mount?

Natalya Zubarevich:

It's also true, but when you don't change the car, the tires get worse and worse. Here you have a tire fitting, here you have a perspective. Repair everything will increase. Novodel will be reduced.

Look, I lived through the 90s. Let me reassure you and say that somehow get out. I remember when we crossed this threshold in 1992, my salary at Moscow State University was $5 a month - this is to give you a feel for the formats. True, the food did not cost so much, it was cheaper.

And the second option is how people have adapted. They ran like horses. They worked wherever possible. People are incredibly flexible.

Now remember the bad. Then no one bothered to work in a bunch of places, earn extra money wherever I can. My husband was also spinning. We've lived through it all. Now a much less flexible system has been built, where there are too many prohibitions. You start spinning, and the tax office, the prosecutor's office and so on will hit you in the nose.

Our country will be able to get through this crisis more smoothly if the authorities nevertheless ease the bans. But for some reason it seems to me that the prohibitive inertia is already in such a rage that a rollback will be felt as a loss of face. And now our government does not allow the loss of face. And that would be the most stupid thing she could do. Because it's time to roll back. When you put pressure on the political, all this is systematically combined with the pressure on economic freedoms. Somehow it doesn’t work, like Lee Kuan Yew: “Politicians - stand, be silent, be afraid. Everything is possible with the economy.” Our government has other balances: to drag and not let go. But these are big risks. Let's see, everything is possible. In Russia, never say "never" at all.

Maxim Dbar:

And how do you see the way out of the crisis in a situation where the government is obviously not ready for institutional reforms, and on the other hand, the population is not ready for political protest?

Natalya Zubarevich:

It's absolutely perfect. The population will be very aggressive, very dissatisfied, but aggression will be expressed in smashing dishes in the kitchen, children, periodically - wives, and barking at a neighbor on the bus who moved you with something. And even more fun - a nearby car on the road that you cut, or she cut you off. They will run with a bat regularly on Russian highways. But this is not a political process.

We will get out of this crisis, no doubt, because political and economic cycles are finite, and there is no other way in this world. We will emerge from it into something new, it is not yet clear what. With by far the worst human capital - and this is a medical fact, nothing can be done about it. With an even older population, much less drive compared to the late 80s when we had the urge to try to do things ourselves; these are all costs that we have acquired. But, nevertheless, such people will be. Someone life will force.

Don't discount the wonderful gender factor. Do you know what happened when everything crashed in the early 90s? This is my generation, I remember it well. Men - lab managers, department heads, serious and accomplished people, senior researchers - lay down on the bottom, on the sofa, began to look at the ceiling and think about the meaning of life. Women mastered the profession of a realtor, began to walk with sums and galloped into a new life, because children need to be fed. Here, no one canceled the children. We adapt. Well, let's get rough. Makeup will be ruined. We will grow old, but we will survive. And maybe the youngsters will return if the situation changes. Never say never".

Konstantin Churikov: Well, here is the big topic of this hour: we find out how a country lives, so different, so dissimilar, why we have this division into rich and poor not only in terms of population groups, but also in our country, and why the poor - regions, there are still more cities than the rich? In our studio Natalya Zubarevich, professor at Moscow State University. Natalya Vasilievna, hello.

Oksana Galkevich: Hello, Natalya Vasilievna.

Natalya Zubarevich: Hello.

Konstantin Churikov: We will immediately ask our viewers to try to assess the standard of living in you and your city, how you assess what is happening in your country, how you feel. Please write what city you are from; we are also waiting for your calls 8-800-222-00-14.

Natalya Vasilievna, for starters, I just want to decide. How many "Russians" do we have in terms of living standards? Because when we discuss here some things that we see from Moscow, we immediately get messages from a dozen regions that say: "Guys, you are in Moscow, everything is different with us." There are regions that are more prosperous anyway than the most lagging, as they say, points on the map, they say: "No, we are somehow spinning and spinning." So how many "Russians" do we have?

Natalya Zubarevich: If we take, measuring the resettlement, then in the first Russia there live those who live in cities with a population of over a million and in cities with a population of half a million. Today I was going to talk about them in more detail, as it were - these are only 36-37 cities. But excuse me, 31% of the population of the Russian Federation lives in them - a lot, you see. In total, we have 1,100 cities, and then a certain intermediate zone begins, where the population of the city is from 250 to 500 thousand, it can be different there, but not deadly. Then comes a whole bunch of medium-sized cities, smaller cities. And here are medium-sized cities with industrial potential, not so much already, more in trade, and this is about another quarter of the country's population. And finally, a third, a little more than a third, are small towns, urban-type settlements and villages; there, with the exception of the suburbs and areas adjacent to the largest agglomerations, with the exception of these pieces, everything is about the same - on potatoes, on chickens ...

Oksana Galkevich: On natural farming.

Konstantin Churikov: Equally bad?

Natalya Zubarevich: Yes Yes.

Konstantin Churikov: Are these cities with less than 100 thousand inhabitants, if we take cities?

Natalya Zubarevich: No, I didn't say that. Small towns are towns with less than 20 thousand inhabitants, they are very small. Everything that ... Up to 50 is often bad, but there are exceptions, here is the 50-100 zone - everything is very different there. There will be oil towns in this number, I would not say that life is a success there, but it is much more acceptable than in cities where textile production or no industry has long been left. Let's put it this way: this is a very different Russia, this second one, medium-sized cities, it is very different.

Oksana Galkevich: Natalya Vasilievna, how is it that we have points, or perhaps even more likely one point in our country, where there is an over-concentration of opportunities, money? And this whole rest of Russia is also somehow different there, it different levels(2, 3, 4 of them are observed), but there is no over-concentration, no money, no movement, no well-being.

Natalya Zubarevich: Well, about well-being, let's remember that someone has small pearls, and someone has empty cabbage soup. Therefore, the feeling of well-being depends not only on money: in Moscow it is already the environment, and a lot of things related to social relations. The richer the place, country or city, the more complex is the feeling of well-being. I assure you that the Finns are far from the nation that has the maximum level of happiness. Do you know where is the maximum? in the countries of Central America.

Oksana Galkevich: Heat, dancing, fruits, vegetables.

Natalya Zubarevich: The sun is shining, life is lived today, and now a person is happy. Therefore, let's say we are purely economic well-being, if it is money, and a general feeling of satisfaction with life, that's another story.

Oksana Galkevich: No, it's not about feeling, of course. Overconcentration from an economic point of view.

Natalya Zubarevich: Moscow, yes.

Konstantin Churikov: Why do we have one global place of power in the country?

Natalya Zubarevich: Because... Now I will say things that are completely politically incorrect, but absolutely correct from the point of view of the economy. In a country with a rigid vertical of power, all businesses always strive to be close to this power, so the base headquarters sit in a pedestrian or in a good car, not far from decision-making places. I tried to express myself as correctly as possible.

Konstantin Churikov: Some are even right across the river.

Oksana Galkevich: That is, oil is extracted ...

Natalya Zubarevich: Some are exiled, however, to St. Petersburg to boost the city's economy. This is called the consequence of overconcentration in politics.

Second. In a country dominated by large enterprises, large companies, and medium and small businesses live in a semi-depressed state, it is large companies that determine budget revenues and the wages of their employees. As a result, everything that pays well sits in large companies, and as you understand, management, top management is concentrated in headquarters. Where is our headquarters? - in Moscow.

Oksana Galkevich: Natalya Vasilievna, why don’t we have… All the headquarters are in Moscow, but oil is not produced in Moscow, agricultural production, agriculture is developing…

Natalya Zubarevich: I realized.

Oksana Galkevich: Why don't we have an agricultural capital, I don't know, a metallurgical capital?

Natalya Zubarevich: We have metallurgical capitals.

Oksana Galkevich: Hydrocarbon capitals.

Natalya Zubarevich: There is a hydrocarbon industry, Moscow is called.

Oksana Galkevich: And so that these centers of gravity are distributed more evenly in this way?

Natalya Zubarevich: I repeat my answer again. There is an honest advantage, it is called the agglomeration effect. The giant city has more choice of jobs, they are more diverse, they are more skilled, there is a demand for all this. And as a result, wages are higher in gigantic agglomerations, but life is also more expensive: you understand that an apartment in New York and in a city somewhere in Nevada will cost different amounts of money. This is a pure, correct, economic agglomeration effect that works this way, it does not depend on politics. I told you the second addition, the vertical system of power, which draws even more towards Moscow.

Now about the capitals. The headquarters of any company pulls on itself to the maximum profit as it can, or pulls it further on to its traders if it works on foreign markets. So convenient because all the decisions are made at the headquarters, a giant company. Therefore, in the Khanty-Mansiysk Okrug, the price at which oil is calculated will be - as it were, very carefully - near the plinth, before we even had the term "oil-containing liquid", and all the added margin, as it were, will sit at the headquarters or on traders, because it is so convenient for a large company. Grain traders are not concentrated in Moscow, grain traders, thank God, are more differentiated in Russia, but it will be Rostov, it will be Krasnodar and the same Moscow.

Oksana Galkevich: Metallurgy, for example.

Natalya Zubarevich: Yes. Metallurgical money is just the most deconcentrated: it sits in Sverdlovsk, in Chelyabinsk, in the Lipetsk region, in the Vologda region, less in Kuzbass, that is, where large metallurgical companies sit. They have headquarters, if you walked around our capital, they are not here.

Konstantin Churikov: Let's just move to these different cities now. Let's see how the residents of Irkutsk and Yekaterinburg assess their standard of living. It will still be subjective, but nevertheless, people have something to talk about.

PLOT

Konstantin Churikov: And now we see that people in the million-plus city of Yekaterinburg and in the non-million city (there are 600-odd thousand) Irkutsk rate their lives at C grade. Your comment, Natalya Vasilievna?

Natalya Zubarevich: First: Irkutsk from the Siberian cities has a more or less decent salary, again in comparison. To tell Irkutsk people: “Come on, take a look at Buryatia and the Trans-Baikal Territory,” and they will understand ... They are well aware of these differences in wages. Another thing is that in all regions of the raw type or primary processing, where export companies, there are very high gaps in the salaries of those who are in aluminum, those who are in the oil industry, and those who, as you interviewed people, are on the budget. It is clear that due to the fact that there is a piece of people who receive good salaries, prices and living wage grows up, it is the middle of large and small. Therefore, life in Irkutsk is more expensive, it's true. But we adjust for the cost of living, and I can say that from the Siberian regions, if you look, then Irkutsk will stand out for the better relative to all regions, including even Krasnoyarsk, because it has a large south, there is agricultural employment, there is not earn.

About Togliatti, I agree that now the Samara region and in particular Togliatti is going through better times. In the 1990s it was a city with opportunities, then trade and sale of cars gave decent salaries. Now, both at AvtoVAZ and at neighboring enterprises, wages are low, people feel uncomfortable. About Rostov...

Konstantin Churikov: Rostov and Togliatti are ahead.

Oksana Galkevich: Yekaterinburg second.

Natalya Zubarevich: Yekaterinburg is a strong, developing city, which, of course, was hurt somehow by the crisis, but Yekaterinburg has been reformatted into a service center, there are a lot of different jobs. Salaries in Yekaterinburg, if you calculate taking into account prices, this is almost the level of St. Petersburg. Do you think that there are very high salaries in St. Petersburg? They are like in the Moscow region in rubles.

Konstantin Churikov: No, no, in St. Petersburg it is a multiple less than in Moscow.

Natalya Zubarevich: And I adjusted the prices. Therefore, Yekaterinburg, perhaps, of the entire cage of Russian largest cities in terms of wages, the sphere is competitive from non-capital ones, that is, not Moscow or St. Petersburg. That is why people somehow hold on, they don’t really leave there, although I must say that there are even more prosperous cities until 2017 - Tyumen is called.

Oksana Galkevich: I will have one question just for our survey, but now let's listen to our viewer, we have a call from Tula from Alexei. Alexey, hello.

Viewer: Good evening.

Konstantin Churikov: Kind.

Natalya Zubarevich: Good evening.

Oksana Galkevich: Please speak.

Viewer:Good evening, presenters, good evening, Natalia. I worked for 12 years since 2001 in such a unit as a fire train (Tula-1 station). The unit should be strategically subordinate to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, but owned by private individuals, just private traders who ... maintain Russia's transport.

Konstantin Churikov: So.

Viewer:Do you understand me?

Konstantin Churikov: If possible, louder and clearer.

Viewer:They set a salary of 6 thousand, and it has remained the same to this day. After the transition ... according to the application, I work in the Ministry of Emergency Situations, the salary is 13 thousand.

Natalya Zubarevich: I do not understand.

Viewer:After reducing the budgetary sphere and raising salaries, it will turn out to be 200 rubles more. Can a father with four children live on that kind of money?

Konstantin Churikov: Yes, Alexey, unfortunately, I can't hear you very well. So, our viewer talked about the fact that 13 thousand, 13,200 became ...

Natalya Zubarevich: I understood the story. There have never been decent salaries in Tula, it's just that in the post-Soviet period Tula has never lived decently - I don't even say the word "good" - did not live. The entire belt of regions around the Moscow metropolitan agglomeration is characterized by the fact that for higher wages they go from there for labor migration to Moscow, and recently to the Moscow region.

Oksana Galkevich: So this is the trouble of these regions?

Konstantin Churikov: And this train, too, is probably a disaster.

Natalya Zubarevich: As before for sausage, now for salaries and better paid jobs. What is told is a specific case, different people have it differently, but these are regions that are extremely poor in terms of wages.

Oksana Galkevich: Natalya Vasilievna, I noticed in our stories what people say... They not only talk about wages, how they live, not only about expenses and incomes, they also assess the situation in the city, they say that the city is clean, the city dirty, landscaping.

Natalya Zubarevich: Here it is.

Oksana Galkevich: It also affects the feeling.

Natalya Zubarevich: Not only salary, of course.

Oksana Galkevich: For some reason, I immediately, excuse me, recall Moscow and the local improvement, at what pace it is happening, what amounts are spent on it.

Natalya Zubarevich: Incredibly tall, monstrously tall.

Oksana Galkevich: Well, tell me, you are an economist, you can give definitions.

Natalya Zubarevich: For God's sake.

What do I want to say about Yekaterinburg? That's why people noted the environmental characteristics that kindergartens were built, something else? Because this city is not critically poor, and when incomes grow to any slightly decent level, people begin to look wider. Not only a net salary for them, the urban environment is important to them, some social services, and it's great when people start to look wider. Moscow is a crazy city in terms of Wednesday spending, but I can tell you that Moscow in 2017 spent almost the same amount on landscaping as on all education.

Konstantin Churikov: In the country?

Natalya Zubarevich: No, in the city. Here are the expenses of the Moscow budget for education somewhere, if memory serves, about 280 billion, and the cost of improvement is about 240 billion.

Oksana Galkevich: How much is that in relative terms?

Natalya Zubarevich: Moscow has spent more than 11% of all budget expenditures on landscaping. If only one region...

Oksana Galkevich: How much do they usually spend? Moscow 11%...

Natalya Zubarevich: Moscow 11%, regions 1-2%, despite the fact that their budgets are not only significantly smaller, they are an order of magnitude smaller.

Konstantin Churikov: Do you think the current state of affairs creates strong social tension in the country?

Natalya Zubarevich: Moscow breaks away from the rest of the country even in times of crisis. It would seem that the way out of stagnation, whatever you want to call it, the 2016-2017s. - these are the years of accelerating the separation of Moscow from the rest of Russia. This is manifested in the fantastic growth of budget revenues, in fantastic spending on everything that we call landscaping, when the rest of the country most often has broken roads, with the exception of Tyumen, which was spent on this. St. Petersburg is incomparable in terms of infrastructure spending. Therefore, the risks are here ... Well, how can I tell you? Do you think people will simply dislike Moscow even more? What is this, the first year? And in Soviet times, when Moscow had sausage and Finnish boots and butter, and the rest of the country had none of this, Moscow was also very disliked.

Konstantin Churikov: No, you know, as Saltykov-Shchedrin said: "The main thing is that they don't give you a ruble in the face."

Oksana Galkevich: Excuse me, but Muscovites say, Moscow says, the Moscow authorities respond to this, they say that they earn money, sorry, you don’t earn money there, but they do.

Natalya Zubarevich: So my answer is always simple. Why is such a high amount of income tax coming from Sberbank concentrated in the Moscow budget? In fact, Sberbank operates throughout the territory.

Konstantin Churikov: There are many departments.

Natalya Zubarevich: The same is the second payer "VTB". Well, how did you distribute the profit between all the branches so that Sberbank became the largest tax source of income tax revenues to the Moscow budget? He is the largest. Tell me, please, is Rosneft pumping in Moscow or not?

Oksana Galkevich: Not here at all, in my opinion.

Natalya Zubarevich: Why? And it begins… Remember, I told you that I stay in the region. Well, here's another story for you. They created a law on consolidated groups of taxpayers, they seemed to want the best way, so that under this law profits would be distributed between regions, taking into account employees, the cost of fixed assets. But who will explain to me why in 2017 the payments of the consolidated groups of taxpayers to the budget of Moscow increased by more than 40 billion and they fell by a comparable amount in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug and in Yakutia? Answer: a head of cabbage, as one very nice young governor used to say. Because big companies can do what they want. They are not the main payers, not consolidated groups, but due to the way the business system in Russia is arranged…

Konstantin Churikov: Closer to power.

Natalya Zubarevich: Big business is the most important thing, and the consolidation of everything and everyone at the headquarters. Due to the fact that state-owned companies and government are, in general, a single entity, it is done in a way that is more convenient for state-owned companies and big business.

Konstantin Churikov: We are called by Natalia, Kuban, Krasnodar Territory. Natalia, hello.

Viewer: Hello.

Konstantin Churikov: What city or country are you from? How do you rate the standard of living?

Viewer:I am from the small town of Yeysk, we have a very beautiful city.

Natalya Zubarevich: Yes.

Viewer:On the shore of the Sea of ​​Azov. But we don't have any work.

Natalya Zubarevich: Here.

Viewer:We used to have about 17 enterprises, now we have nothing, just shops, shops, shops. And salaries are also small, 10-15 thousand. Many people travel all over the country to earn money, there are no jobs in the villages either ...

Natalya Zubarevich: It's true.

Viewer:Who else has shares there, people keep the farm, and whoever has no shares, it’s hard to keep the farm. Just for the garden. Like paradise, but if the collective farms or state farms and state level, because you yourself understand that an entrepreneur - it all depends on the person, and for most of them it’s faster to get rich, and not think about people, therefore people suffer because of this. And so people basically: "Give work and pay normally." We don’t need a lot of money, and we don’t want to go abroad, we love our country, we are proud, we support the president, we are patriots of our Motherland. So give work to at least live like a human being, to raise children, so that children study, so that they also love their country. Here is the Soviet Union, at least there is something to love for: he gave education, gave an apartment, traveled all over the country (“my native country is wide”), and now what are these children, if there is money, money here, money everywhere, most importantly money?

Konstantin Churikov: Your question is understandable. Natalia, thanks for your call.

Natalya Vasilievna, but how to make sure that for, for example, the inhabitants of Yeysk and for Natalia, who also loves her homeland, love is mutual?

Natalya Zubarevich: Dear Natalia! I just want to remind you that in 1985 the Soviet Union imported 40 million tons of grain, and in 2017 it exported over 40 million tons of grain. There is little difference between the Soviet Union, which eventually collapsed to a very large extent for economic reasons, and the current economy is crooked, crooked, but this economy knows how to sell at least part of its products.

Second, grain farming, which now dominates the agricultural sector, is a labor-intensive economy. And what we see now is a very difficult transitional period, still ongoing, from the Soviet collective farms-state farms with their hellish employment, hellish subsidies and no profit and production, they were all mostly unprofitable.

Oksana Galkevich: Inefficient.

Natalya Zubarevich: Absolutely. Now the grain and sunflower agricultural sector is absolutely profitable, but this means a sharp contraction of jobs, because I repeat it again, I repeat it everywhere: teams of 6 combine harvesters harvest and sow as the whole collective farm did. The equipment is modern, people know how to work. Next - how to survive this situation? What is happening is what is happening: from the village, the people are drawn to the retreat and to the city. Painful? - Yes. Hard? - Yes. What are the options? Just pay to stay where you live?

Konstantin Churikov: Global market, no?

Natalya Zubarevich: No, because this technique was largely unclaimed in the 1990s.

Oksana Galkevich: Uncompetitive.

Natalya Zubarevich: Undoubtedly. And then only what survived survived. Need to expand? - necessary. Let's invest? - there is no particular desire, because it is not clear whether it will be possible to sell what will be produced at the new production. What happens? " John Deere before we quarreled with America, he perfectly installed an assembly of components in the Krasnodar Territory. And thanks to leasing in the leasing system, which is slightly subsidized by the Ministry of Agriculture, this was a great buy. Now "Rosselmash" also increases the volume by 20-30% per year, and this is sold and bought. Therefore, let's not cry about the Soviet Union, let's understand that now we are living in a rather difficult transition period (and it will be for a long time), when medium and small cities have already deindustrialized, have ceased to be those Soviet cities, factories, and new ones are not hatching yet.

Konstantin Churikov: But Natalya Vasilievna ...

Oksana Galkevich: I want to turn to sanctions somehow. But this situation, that we are in a situation where certain sanctions are being imposed against us, maybe it will give some impetus to the development of these cities, where there used to be enterprises, now they are gone?

Natalya Zubarevich: I will try to answer, as I have already answered 155 times. Tell me, please, in order to produce something new, do you agree that you need to invest first, right? You don't mind, it doesn't happen by magic.

Konstantin Churikov: Yes Yes.

Natalya Zubarevich: To invest, you need to see the prospects. Fools, except, excuse me, state-owned companies with a shovel of money, there are no crazy investors in private business, they want to see profit. Third, let me remind you once again that over the 4 years of the crisis, Russian investments have fallen by 12%, business does not see any prospects. Further: if we invest, we must see effective demand, do you agree? What happens to people's income?

Oksana Galkevich: They fall.

Natalya Zubarevich: Minus 12% for 4 years. In this situation... Should we enter foreign markets now? Well, we tried so hard that no one liked us anymore, not really ... No, with oil, gas - please, there are no questions there, but already with aluminum there are questions. And when you put it all together and offer me: "Let's replace everything with imports," I will answer you with a simple phrase that the dynamics of industrial production for 2017 plus 1%, the extractive industry plus 2%, manufacturing (this is what import substitution itself sits in it) plus 0.2%.

Konstantin Churikov: Within the margin of error.

Natalya Zubarevich: Everything, I answered you.

Konstantin Churikov: Close to zero.

Let's now listen to our viewer Eduard from Tolyatti. Edward, hello.

Viewer: Good evening.

Konstantin Churikov: Tell us about your city, about your life, and then, by the way, we will watch the story that our correspondents shot in Togliatti.

Viewer:I'll be happy to tell you. Today, the conversation is mainly at the macro level, that is, Moscow and the regions are being compared. It is clear that there is Irkutsk, there is Yekaterinburg, there is Togliatti. Our city is such a marker.

Natalya Zubarevich: Yes.

Viewer:They called us a single-industry city, we are such "mono-city residents".

Natalya Zubarevich: No, not anymore.

Viewer:Here. The population is running out.

Natalya Zubarevich: Yes.

Viewer:It is believed that we are in a strong depression, although here I am talking with my classmates in the Kemerovo region, for example, and I understand that this is not so.

Konstantin Churikov: So interesting.

Viewer:We can still live. But now I want to go down to the micro level. If earlier the difference in salaries between the cleaning lady and the director of Uralmash was 10 times, then today take a department at AvtoVAZ of 5-8 people: a simple economist gets 15-20, the head of the department - 250. And the Moscow Varangians, who we have there are vice presidents and so on, I'm even afraid to say these figures.

Konstantin Churikov: They probably still have some percentage in addition.

Viewer:This is in Togliatti. How would a respected professor comment on this? I would like to hear.

Konstantin Churikov: Thanks for calling Edward.

Viewer:In general, I would like to study with such a professor as now, but the previous such professor you had in a plaid jacket, as if under coke, I was even directly surprised. Sorry, if so.

Konstantin Churikov: Thanks for your call.

Natalya Zubarevich: Thank you. You know, I agree with you on all points, including the last one. The first point: indeed, the standard of living in Togliatti, starting somewhere in 2009, went to the bottom, to be honest, now it is much worse compared to other cities than it was in the 1990s. It's true, AvtoVAZ pays little, it's true. Wild inequalities in Russian salaries are true, because it is permissible: there are no trade unions, no collective agreements, there is no pressure from below from workers, everyone is afraid and holds on to jobs, so the bosses go crazy.

If it can console you a little, I can say that exactly the same thing happens in medicine (the salary of the head physician and an ordinary doctor), in higher education (the salary of the rector, for example, of my Moscow State University and me as a professor will differ approximately, let's say, 20 times ). Therefore, this is a country in which people's rights are not protected, barriers are not set to ensure that wage differentiation does not go beyond some level of common sense; This is a country that does not know how to stand up for itself. Here we have what we have.

Konstantin Churikov: Are these questions for the state or the country?

Natalya Zubarevich: To people.

Oksana Galkevich: To people.

Konstantin Churikov: To people, right?

Natalya Zubarevich: You see, there is no good, all-good, smart, reasonable state. The state is a group of interests, as institutional theory teaches us. And small interest groups with resources always work in their favor. Large groups of interests, if they do not consolidate, do not give movement from below, it will be as it will be. And I'm not talking about revolutions, I'm talking about civic participation and defending their interests.

Oksana Galkevich: Natalya Vasilievna, now, as promised, let's see the story that our correspondents filmed in Togliatti and in another city, in Rostov-on-Don. Let's see how people there assess their standard of living.

PLOT

Konstantin Churikov: Well, here are two more oil paintings. You know, Natalya Vasilievna, when you hear about how a family lives with children on a total salary of 20, 30, 40 (more or less) thousand rubles, it becomes scary, because we know that we want everything to go to stores, and the prices are us, I think, in Moscow and in Togliatti are not much different.

Natalya Zubarevich: In Togliatti a little cheaper.

Konstantin Churikov: But nevertheless, how to live?

Natalya Zubarevich: Firstly, they told you that parents help just enough for food.

Oksana Galkevich: Family connections help.

Natalya Zubarevich: The first is family support. She is in Russia. Another thing is that they help children more often, less often elderly parents who are retired, especially if they have stayed in another city.

About Togliatti. There happened what should have happened. How do you imagine a car factory with 115,000 employees? This is unthinkable in all respects, an unthinkable number. Now there are 33,000 people there, and it already somehow seems, not yet approached, to the factories that we know by the name of foreign cars. The inflated Soviet numbers were artificially maintained for more than 10 years. Once again: people pay for everything. Here was an inefficient Soviet plant, now it somehow ... Well, the design is changing to make it more efficient, these are layoffs. Therefore, yes, the risks of unemployment are increased, the departure to other cities is growing, migration from the city is growing. Well, and your option - will leave 115 thousand AvtoVAZ, as it was in Soviet times?

Konstantin Churikov: Our option is to pursue such an internal policy in the region, I don’t know, in the district (this is the Volga District), in the country, so that people who lose their jobs can find another decent job, learn to find this job ...

Natalya Zubarevich: Retraining was carried out, but badly and not about that. Opportunities for resettlement were provided, but people did not go to the city of the Leningrad Region, where a new car building plant was built, because from a city of more than 700,000 to go to a 50,000-strong monotown, only about car building, people with heads in Togliatti are all right they are reasonable. Therefore, Togliatti is being reformatted. Nitrogen is alive, Togliattikauchuk is alive, they are not labor-intensive. We yelled all the time: “Well, make a better connection so that the road between Samara and Tolyatti is not so long,” well, at least somehow this increases the mobility of the workforce.

Konstantin Churikov: Yes, they are also generally separated.

Natalya Zubarevich: These 40 kilometers - yes, start the light rail to quickly.

Oksana Galkevich: Only 40 kilometers?

Natalya Zubarevich: So that's what we're talking about, there is agglomeration. Togliatti, Samara and Novokuibyshevsk are one... But on the other hand, Zhigulevskoye and Syzran are not far from there. In principle, the effect of this agglomeration could have been much greater if these regions had not been badly managed over the past 15 years (I would say more), there were no endless fights between the elite, then there was no arrival of effective managers from Russian Technologies. Therefore, this is all about the underinvestment of infrastructure, and the poor quality of management, and the reformatting of the Soviet plant into something else.

Oksana Galkevich: Natalya Vasilievna, we have been talking about the over-concentration of wealth in Moscow, but we can also talk about the enormous centralization of power in our country.

Natalya Zubarevich: Undoubtedly.

Oksana Galkevich: And you say that this region is badly managed. But he managed it with local cadres, that is, maybe ...

Natalya Zubarevich: It seemed so to you.

Oksana Galkevich: ... Moscow is trying to pick up everything for itself, because look how negligent they are, they can’t cope.

Natalya Zubarevich: Since the time of the late Titov, there were no local personnel there. Then there were people from Russian Technologies, then there was the head of neighboring Mordovia ...

Konstantin Churikov: Mr Merkushkin.

Oksana Galkevich: Varyags-temporaries, or what, it turns out?

Natalya Zubarevich: How exactly you describe the situation, I am very pleased to hear it.

Now about Rostov, with your permission. Rostov has never been a poor city, this is Rostov-dad. There has always been a lot of shadow employment and shadow income there since the time of the Russian Empire. You know, the south is more businesslike in that sense. There is such a word: "Well, you are businesslike," - this is about the southern business. But there are hellish gaps in the incomes of an ordinary pensioner and purely specific guys who do their business very often in conjunction with the authorities. Until recently, the infrastructure of the city was in a monstrous state: a hole in the hole, a creepy ancient airport and the list goes on. Only now they have begun to invest in the city, I hope that most of the money will reach the recipients, I hope so.

Konstantin Churikov: Do you know what the locals call the new Platov airport? - "Overpayments", because the most expensive.

Natalya Zubarevich: Here you go.

Konstantin Churikov: Let's listen to Nadezhda from the Kirov region. Just please be brief, Hope, we just don't have much time already. Good evening.

Viewer: Hello.

Konstantin Churikov: Hello.

Viewer:So I say, 9,400 is now a pension, I don’t know how I can start treatment. And even to go to the district is 300 rubles, and more than once you have to go, for examination, to the dentist, to insert teeth, we can’t do anything. And now we need to go to the region - this is 600 rubles for the road, this is from the pension ... I will pay 4 thousand for an apartment, and we have nothing left. I do not know how to be. One daughter teaches her son at the institute, also with her husband, our earnings are very small. Another daughter pays for a mortgage, even if I even borrowed from them, I don’t even know how to give me money.

Konstantin Churikov: Hope, thanks for your call.

Natalya Vasilievna, we have been looking at different cities, different stories during this hour, different situations, but in fact they are all similar - they are similar in that there is Moscow and a few more or less rich people like that, and everything else is just so sad and sad.

Natalya Zubarevich: Yes.

Konstantin Churikov: Are we really talking about a systemic problem?

Natalya Zubarevich: This is a systemic problem related to the fact, firstly, that the main resources are concentrated in Moscow, it is true, and the main best jobs are there, and the salaries are there, everything is true. Secondly, this is due to the fact that we have reached unacceptable gaps - unacceptable, I just emphasize this word - in the level of payment for top management and ordinary non-nurses, qualified specialists. Because there are limits that should not be violated, we violated them by abolishing the tariff scale of payment (really a Soviet burp), but in the absence of control by the employed over what is happening, we got quite a feudal system.

Oksana Galkevich: Natalya Vasilievna, we are talking, therefore, not about the economy, but about some kind of morality.

Natalya Zubarevich: No, this is called the failure of institutions. If you cancel the Soviet restraining levers, but in response do not create an environment that works on, as it were, balances, these are your failures, these are managerial failures.

Oksana Galkevich: Thanks.

Konstantin Churikov: Thanks.

Oksana Galkevich: So they would listen and communicate more, but live. Natalya Vasilievna Zubarevich, professor at Moscow State University, was in our studio today.

Konstantin Churikov: We talked about the standard of living, the level of development of various cities in Russia, although what kind of development is there, there is Moscow and several cities, and there are all the others. Thank you for coming.

We'll continue in a few seconds.

Image copyright Egor Gaidar Foundation Image caption The former model of economic growth in Russia stopped working in 2013, says Natalia Zubarevich

Russian regions are accumulating fiscal imbalances and continue to get bogged down in the crisis. Where the lowest point of this peak is unclear. But it is also clear that this trajectory of decline is unlikely to lead to broad social protests, says Natalya Zubarevich, director of the regional program of the Independent Institute for Social Policy.

The main risk for Russia is the continuation of the movement towards "downward adaptation of the population", which leads to degradation within the framework of the existing economic model. She expressed this opinion during the lecture "Depression in the Regional Dimension", read by her on Thursday at the Sakharov Center.

One of the organizers of the event was the Yegor Gaidar Foundation.

According to Natalya Zubarevich, the crisis that Russia is now experiencing began in 2013, when the "machine" of the old economic growth stopped working. The model that emerged in the 2000s has stopped.

Three dimensions of the current crisis

What was before? Our oil prices were rising, there was more money in the economy. In parallel, to put it mildly, institutions did not improve, and there were more barriers to business development. But while the price of oil was rising, this system was balanced. As soon as the price of oil rose, even at $110 per barrel, that's it, the economy slowed down.

We stalled in December 2013 - already that year was zero in the industry, incomes were barely growing. It all started with stagnation, and we went into the red when we added external factors: Crimea, sanctions and anti-sanctions, which most of all affected the growth of inflation.

The new crisis is slow, we still have not been able to find new growth drivers. On a nationwide scale, the crisis unfolds at three levels. First, regional budgets are suffering: for three years now they have been out of balance and are experiencing very strong debt pressure. This imbalance began in December 2012, when for the first time the regions had to account for the increase in salaries of state employees (in accordance with the May decrees of Vladimir Putin).

Secondly, we are witnessing an investment crisis: there is a significant reduction in direct investment.

Third, the crisis has an effect on income and consumption. Finally, with regard to industry, real sector, the current crisis is not quite the same as before: we are used to the fact that a crisis is a plant stopped, a lockout [closure of an enterprise and mass layoffs of workers], a strike. The current crisis is not like that - it is more hidden.

Image copyright getty Image caption Russia is moving on a trajectory of "downward adaptation", Natalya Zubarevich believes

"Patriot Test"

The most annoying thing is that this crisis hit quite hard those regions where there were already modernized industries - first of all, our auto industry, especially the assembly industry. Industries where there is good management and a good product at the end - they fell.

In total, the debt of regions and municipalities is 2.66 trillion rubles - about 3% of GDP Natalya Zubarevich

The decline in the automotive industry amounted to 30%, but the situation with the production of railcars is even worse - minus 60%. Here it crashed throughout the production of wagons. Evil tongues say, let's now look at Uralvagonzavod in Nizhny Tagil. It is known that tanks are produced there at the most 20%, and the rest is wagons. Now it is very difficult for them there: they have a big test for patriotism. Following the auto industry and wagons are semi-depressive regions: Kostroma, Kurgan, Pskov, Amur Region. Each crisis they sag and then hardly "push out".

Well, who does not particularly feel this crisis from the point of view of real economy? These are three groups of regions: the first group is a modern, new oil and gas industry (Sakhalin, Yakutia, the oil industry of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Nenets District). The second group is our agrarian south and the regions of the Central Chernozem region. The third group is the regions of the military-industrial complex. They grow the fastest: 7-11%.

If we compare the levels of subsidization of the regions in 2014 and 2015, they have not changed much. However, in 2014 federal transfers were generally larger. The crisis is still pressing. However, one should not think that where subsidies are higher, there are more risks. For example, we see that the share of transfers from the federal budget in the consolidated budget of Chechnya is high. But are you sure that Chechnya should be afraid? I'm not very sure here.

Regions are honest and regions are cunning

Who do we have now in the black? This is, for example, Moscow, Tyumen region. The Leningrad region is, in my opinion, a civilized budget policy. At the same time, there are regions that are poor, but at the same time live within their means, trying not to accumulate deficits. In 2015, the Vladimir region became poor and honest; it ended the year with a surplus. There is a responsible budget policy.

In total, the debt of regions and municipalities is 2.66 trillion rubles - about 3% of GDP. At the same time, there are regions that are brilliant at receiving federal transfers. In this sense, one of the remarkable places is the Republic of Mordovia. She now has a record: the debt is 165% of her own income. And don't be afraid of anything! And the deficit for this year is 24%. That is, they spent 24% more than they earned, and they feel good.

They give Mordovia a budget loan, but she - such a cunning one - does not try to replace expensive ones with it. commercial loans and continues to spend even more. In our political conditions, this is possible. In this picture, I read the lobbying opportunities not only of the regional authorities, but also of interest groups that are somehow connected with the regional authorities.

Airbags for the labor market

If you look at the dynamics of unemployment in the Russian regions, then a very small, insignificant increase occurred in 2015, but it was not catastrophic. Why? We are constantly told: someone was fired here, someone was laid off there. The answer is simple. Layoffs in Russia are now taking place at extremely slow doses, because there are other tools and factors influencing the labor market.

We have always entered crises through underemployment. This is our main way to mitigate crisis risks Natalya Zubarevich

The main factor is underemployment. This is an absolutely legal, legal form. Part-time work, downtime, leave by agreement of the parties. You work part of the time - and get part of the salary for it. And this, by the way, is the norm for Russia. We have always entered crises through underemployment. This is our main way to mitigate crisis risks for everyone, this is consensus.

We are used to thinking that we are a country where consensus is impossible: two people - three opinions. And in labor matters we have a consensus. It's good for everyone: business - because it makes no difference to them whether to fire or reduce salaries. It is good for the state - because people are not fired, there are no protests. People are also relatively normal - of course, the salary has become less, but then they didn’t fire me, the degree of uncertainty has not increased, and the day after tomorrow everything will be fine! We will be patient, we will wait.

Image copyright AFP Image caption Russians save themselves from the crisis to the last in individual or "small-group" survival strategies - and they consider it inappropriate to oppose the authorities, Natalya Zubarevich believes

And generally speaking, considering our current demographics, we are wildly lucky. Now the generation of the 1990s is entering the labor market. It is one third less than the previous one. And the most numerous generation is leaving - the 1950s. If we grew and developed, we would have to shed crocodile tears. And so - everything is in order.

We have a huge informal sector, where 20% of the working-age population is involved - this is now about 20 million people Natalya Zubarevich

In order to somehow alleviate the problem of the retirement of the working-age population, we will need immigration of at least 600,000 people a year (now we have more than 200,000 people annually). In this scenario, by 2025 we will have a decrease in the number of working-age population by 8 million. In a bad scenario, the decrease will be 12 million people. These are the official scenarios of Rosstat. When we start to dust ourselves off and get out [of the crisis], we will have big problems. Who will work for us?

Finally, when we talk about what is a safety cushion for our labor market in a crisis, we must also remember such a kind of damper as a huge informal sector, where 20% of the working-age population is involved - this is now about 20 million people. They can officially be listed somewhere and at the same time make statistics for Rosstat - after all, according to the ILO methodology ( international organization labor), an employed person is one who works at least two hours a week during the last month.

On a downward trajectory

What is this crisis preparing for us? We will have a slow, viscous crisis, without mass layoffs. The regions with non-competitive economies will continue to fall, the industry will sluggishly adapt.

For the first time, we have a simultaneous contraction in both market and budget services. And a year ago, I thought that this is why the crisis will hit the residents of large cities especially hard, because there is a particularly large share of the service economy. But you know, I was wrong.

[Foreign] journalists ask me: everything is falling apart, why are there no protests? Answer: by the way! Natalya Zubarevich

I completely underestimated the ability of the educated, well-earned population of large cities to have downward strategies for survival. We are so ready to roll down the hill, even with a good education! If you understand that an exit out is not possible for you, you start looking for an exit in - and it always comes down to a downward strategy.

When I come to some countries, local journalists ask me: everything is falling down with you, why are there no protests? Answer: by the way! Because there is no linear relationship between the dynamics of the economy and the sociocultural perception of people. Because the business of people is to adapt to any changes. These people in adaptation choose either individual or small group strategies - to survive with the help of friends and relatives.

And to butt heads with this state is more expensive for yourself. The risks of collective action in Russia are monstrous, the result is not guaranteed at all, and there are always opportunities to get out of the situation through individual strategies. Our life experience has taught us this.

And now the whole country is quietly moving in the mode of downward adaptation. And as you know, this leads to degradation. And for me now this is the most infernal risk - degradation.

Natalya Vasilievna Zubarevich(genus) - , specialist in the field of socio-economic development of regions, social and political geography. Professor (since 2005). , Professor.

Director of the regional program of the Independent Institute for Social Policy. Expert of the Development Program and the Moscow Representative Office.

Biography

In 2018, she became a member of the expert jury of the Prize of the Russian Geographical Society.

"Theory of four Russias"

N.V. Zubarevich is the author of the so-called "theory of four Russias", developed by her from the one that has existed in economic geography since the 1970s space development (center and periphery). In socio-economic terms, Russia is explained as internally heterogeneous, divided into relatively developed cities and a backward province.

• Russia 1 unites Moscow and million-plus cities, where 21% of Russia's population lives. 12 cities of the country are predominantly post-industrial society(with the exception of Omsk, Perm, Chelyabinsk, Volgograd and Ufa), they concentrate the middle class of Russia. The main internal migration is directed to these cities: millionaires attract the population of their regions, Moscow - of the whole country. Cities with a population of over 500 thousand or over 250 thousand inhabitants (which is about 36% of the country's population) can be included in this category. These people have access to jobs, markets, culture and the internet.
• Russia 2 unites industrial cities, single-industry towns, with a population of 20 to 250 thousand inhabitants (as well as larger industrial cities -, and others). The population of these cities, constituting 25% of the country's population, is mainly employed in industry, is poorly educated and continues to lead, according to the author, the "Soviet way of life." The solvency of the population is low.
• Russia-3 unites the Russian outback - small towns and villages, where 38% of the total population of the country lives. In these settlements there is a reduction and aging of the population.
• Russia-4 unites the republics of the North Caucasus, Tyva and Altai, which account for 6% of the country's population. The economy of these regions is mostly dependent on the support of the federal center.

Publications

• Zubarevich N.V. The evolution of relations between the center and regions of Russia: from conflicts to the search for consent / Ed. D. Azraela, E. Paina, N. Zubarevich. - M .: Complex-Progress, 1997.
• Alekseev A.I., Zubarevich N.V., Kuznetsov O.V. Regional differences and human development: Report on the development of human potential in the Russian Federation. Year 1998. United Nations Development Program. - M .: Human Rights, 1998.
• Zubarevich N.V. Dynamics of industrial production on the map of Russia // Securities market. 1999. No. 5.
• Alekseev A.I., Zubarevich N.V. The crisis of urbanization and the countryside of Russia // Migration and urbanization in the CIS and the Baltics in the 1990s. / Ed. Zh.A. Zayonchkovskaya. — M.: Adamant, 1999.
• Region as a subject of politics and public relations / Ed. N.V. Zubarevich. - M: MONF, 2000. - 224 p.
• Zubarevich N.V. Social development of Russian regions: problems and trends in the transition period. - M .: Editorial URSS, 2003. (Reprints 2005, 2007).
• Russia of regions: in what social space do we live? / Ed. N.V. Zubarevich. — M.: Pomatur, 2005. — 280 p.
• Zubarevich N.V. Regions of Russia: Inequality, Crisis, Modernization. - M .: Independent Institute of Social Policy, 2010. - 160 p. - .

Awards and prizes

• International medal (2009). Awarded for achievements in the regional economic analysis and substantiation of regional economic reforms in Russia.
• N. N. Baransky Prize (2015). Awarded as part of the team of the textbook "Russia: Socio-Economic Geography".
• Prize named after Yegor Gaidar (2016). Awarded in the nomination "For outstanding contribution to the field of economics".