Evgeniy Strimov, RIA Novosti Ukraine

In 2015, the private corporation Strategic Forecasting, or Stratfor, published its Decadal Forecast, predicting global and economic development over the next 10 years.

While international analysts try to predict the main events of the next year, Stratfor believes it has identified the main trends of the next decade. Translation from English for IA ZIK by Oksana Vergeles.

Russia will fall...

"There will be no uprising against Moscow, but Moscow's ability to support and control will create a vacuum, warns Stratfor. - In this vacuum, separate fragments of the Russian Federation will exist."

Sanctions, falling oil prices, a depreciating ruble, rising military spending and increasing internal discord will weaken the grip of Russia's central government. Russia will not be officially divided into several countries, but Moscow's power will be so weak that Russia will effectively become a group of autonomous regions that will not even maintain relations with each other.

"We expect that the authorities in Moscow will be significantly weakened, which will lead to a formal and informal division of Russia, says the report. - It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form.".

... And the United States will have to use its military forces to preserve its nuclear potential

Russia's nuclear weapons infrastructure extends over a large geographic area. If the political unraveling that Stratfor predicts ever happens, it will mean that weapons, nuclear fuel and delivery systems could eventually turn into what will suddenly become a dangerous anarchy in the world.

According to Stratfor, a breach of Russia's nuclear weapons arsenal will be "the biggest crisis of the next decade."

And the United States will have to decide what to do about it, even if it means providing physical military security for weapons, materials and missiles.

“Washington is the only force that can solve the problem, but it will not be able to seize control of a huge number of military installations and ensure that not a single missile will work without permission., - said in the forecast for the decade. - The United States will be forced to either come up with a military solution that is difficult to imagine now, or accept the threat of uncontrolled launches, or try to create a stable and economically viable government in the regions that, over time, will participate in neutralizing the missiles.".

Germany will have problems...

Türkiye and the US should be close allies, but due to an unforeseen reason

Several Arab countries are in free fall and the chaos is not expected to end anytime soon. The main benefit from all this will be Türkiye - a strong, relatively stable country whose borders stretch from the Black Sea to Syria and Iraq.

Türkiye is reluctant to intervene in conflicts on its borders, but it will still have to, according to the forecast. As Ankara's strength and assertiveness vis-à-vis its neighbors increases, the country will become an indispensable partner for the United States.

But Türkiye will want something in return: a line of defense against a certain powerful and aggressive country on the other side of the Black Sea, which has military bases in neighboring Armenia. Türkiye will want US help in containing Moscow.

"Türkiye will continue to need US assistance for political and military reasons, says the report. - The United States will be obliged to help, but the price will be to contain Russia. The United States does not expect active hostilities from Turkey and does not intend to participate in them itself. But, however, they will want... a certain level of cooperation in control of the Black Sea.".

China faces a huge challenge

China could have a tough decade ahead, with economic growth slowing and discontent with the ruling Communist Party spreading.

But the party will not liberalize, meaning its only viable option to stay in power will be to increase internal pressure.

Beijing will also face another, perhaps even more serious, challenge: China's geographic growth is unevenly distributed. Coastal cities are thriving, but cities in the middle of China have less access to international markets and are therefore comparatively poorer. This problem will only get worse as China continues to urbanize.

Japan will be a powerful maritime power in Asia

Japan has a centuries-old maritime tradition and, as an island nation, is dependent on imports. China is building its own navy and could become even more aggressive in competing for shipping routes in the East China Sea, South China Sea and Indian Ocean on which Japan depends.

Japan will have no choice but to project its strength in the region to counter China and protect its supply routes. With US power weakening, it will have to do it on its own.

"Japan now depends on the United States to guarantee its access, says the forecast. - But given that we predict more cautious US involvement in foreign countries, and given that the United States is not dependent on imports, the credibility of the United States is in question. Thus, the Japanese will increase their naval forces in the coming years.".

The islands of the South China Sea will not start a war, but there is one caveat

Regional states will decide that disputes over the South China Sea islands are not worth military escalation, but they will still be the cornerstone of the clash.

“The fight for islands that produce inexpensive and unprofitable energy will not be the main issue in the region, the report predicts. - Most likely, the old three-hand game will return. Russia, whose power will decline, will increasingly lose the ability to defend its maritime interests. The Chinese and Japanese will be interested in gaining control of the region and hindering each other.".

There will be 16 mini-Chinas

China's economic growth will slow down and capacity expansion will remain stagnant. This is indeed good news for several countries.

The manufacturing jobs that China once captured will flow smoothly to 16 emerging economies with a total population of 1.15 billion people.

Thus, although China's rise will cease, leading to unpredictable political and economic consequences, Mexico, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, Peru, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Philippines, and Indonesia will see an improvement in their economic situation over the next decade as they have more manufacturing jobs.

The US will lose its power

With the world becoming increasingly disordered over the next 10 years, the US will be focused on its own, rather than taking an active leadership role in solving the world's problems.

Domestic energy production, reduced exports, and a secure geopolitical location will allow the United States to protect itself from a global crisis.

While a more restrained US role in world affairs will make the world even less predictable, it will be a reality that other countries will have to deal with.

"The United States will remain the world's major economic, political and military player, but will be less engaged than in the past, says the forecast. - It will be a chaotic world, with changes in power in many regions. The one constant will be the continued power of the United States, whose power will be much less visible and used in the next decade.".

In the coming decades, the Russian people may be affected by serious changes. This applies to various processes - demographic, social, ethnocultural, mental. Even intelligence and appearance can change.

Save ethnicity

At the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, the Russian people fell into several holes at once. And one of them is common with Europeans. This is a devaluation of the concepts of “ethnic group” and “people”. Many sociologists say that in the not too distant future, self-identification along national lines may lose relevance. Just as in the USA, say, an Italian by origin will call himself an American, so in the Russian Federation a Russian will become exclusively Russian.
Today we are faced with a serious challenge - an unprecedented flow of migrants from Central Asia and the Caucasus, which in the near future threatens the Russian ethnic group, if not with collapse, then with serious transformation, because the birth rate in Asian and Caucasian families is traditionally higher than in Russians.
In Moscow today, almost 40% of marriages are mixed. Of course, this is only part of the process of multiculturalization of Russian society, which has gained momentum in recent years. Sociologists predict that in half a century it will be as difficult to meet a Russian in Moscow as it is today to meet a Yakut in a reindeer cart rushing along Tverskaya.
But perhaps things are not so sad. The preservation of the Russian ethnic group can be helped by the characteristics of its body. Recently, Russian and American geneticists found that even if all Russians are infected with AIDS, 14% of the country's residents will remain healthy. And these are mostly Russians.
It turns out that there is a gene deletion (CCR5) in the blood of Russians. It counteracts the immunodeficiency virus and prevents it from infecting the cell. In Caucasians, this protective gene is extremely rare. Georgians don't have it at all. But if a Russian woman with such a gene gives birth to a Georgian father, her descendants will forever lose genetic protection against AIDS, geneticists say.

Demographic challenges

According to the director of the Federal Migration Service of Russia, Konstantin Romodanovsky, there are about 9 million foreign citizens in the Russian Federation, about 29% of them do not know Russian. Moreover, experts developing the project for the socio-economic development of Russia “Strategy 2020” proposed bringing another 16 million migrants into the country.
Instead of solving the demographic problem, it is proposed to replace the indigenous population with newcomers. “This is not a strategy for the country’s development, it is a strategy for its extinction,” says Igor Beloborodov, director of the Institute of Demographic Research, indignantly.
Given the current trend, a drop in the share of Russians on the territory of the modern Russian Federation below 50% can realistically be expected already in the 30-40s of the current century, demographers warn. More recently, Veniamin Popov, a liaison officer for the Islamic Conference organization, stated as a self-evident fact that by 2050, followers of Islam will dominate the Russian population.
Considering that a huge number of migrants are not capable of integration, and the rate of extinction in Russia is the highest in the world (in 8 years the country has lost more than 13% of its population), this is a serious signal for a society that still lives and thinks in the context of the Russian national idea.
However, the prospects for the complete disappearance of the Russian people are most likely exaggerated, but it must be taken into account that the ability of Russians to self-organize is incomparable with the peoples of the Caucasus or Central Asia. The threat will take on real shape if the Russians fail to consolidate at a crucial moment. Then they will face the fate of a national minority.

Russian revolt

What will happen if the Russian people really find themselves in danger of extinction as a result of a deterioration in their demographic and social situation? According to sociologists, there are two possible scenarios for the development of events: a mass exodus of Russians from the country will begin, or, rallying around the national idea, they will start a rebellion.
But the Russians have already found themselves in such conditions. In 1958, a massive return of Chechens to the recreated autonomy in the Caucasus began, which led to a serious conflict with the Russian population. A numerous demonstration demanding the re-deportation of Chechens then grew into a real pogrom of Caucasians and ended with the storming of the building of the regional committee of the CPSU.
But it may happen that the peak of demographic problems coincides with an internal crisis, then the object on which the people will pour out their anger may become the government. Political scientist Pavel Svyatenkov writes: “If in the coming years it is not possible to create an effective economic model, then Russia will inevitably find itself in a situation of revolution.” However, these years may drag on. As you know, Russians take a long time to harness, but travel quickly.
Political analyst Valery Solovey warns that popular unrest will soon begin throughout Russia and the authorities will not be able to suppress them, because they do not have the political will to resort to large-scale violence. In Moscow, the scientist continues, people will take to the streets under national slogans, in the provinces - mainly under social ones.
The government will change and large-scale democratization will begin. According to this scenario, there is no threat of the collapse of the country, since part of the elite that has joined the popular movement will come to power, and everything will be wonderful, Nightingale predicts.
Nevertheless, a different character of the revolution is also possible. The basic characteristics of the Russian mentality have changed a lot lately. Research has revealed that the driving incentives of modern Russian youth are individualism, the values ​​of success, well-being and hierarchy. With the prosperity of corporations and mafias, these qualities will only intensify.
Historian Yaroslav Butakov believes that sooner or later a rebellion will be directed against this system, but not for the sake of social justice, but only for the right to participate in the exploitation of the majority. “The successful leaders of such a revolt will find themselves in the position of the leaders of a slave revolt in ancient Egypt. Only instead of the palaces of the pharaohs, they will occupy, relatively speaking, dachas on Rublyovka,” concludes Butakov.

New race

Several years ago, Health magazine published a study by American scientists who described how a person’s appearance will change in the near future. According to experts, in 50 years there will be almost no representatives of the Caucasian race left. This is to blame for the sharp increase in the number of marriages between representatives of different nationalities and religions.
Such mixing will lead to the emergence of a new race, and China will play a major role in this. In 50 years, the researchers say, all Europeans, especially Russians, will be like the Chinese - they will become shorter, their facial features and genetics in general will change. The prospect is frightening, but not very realistic.
Even ordinary people worry about the fate of the Russian gene pool. Oleg Balanovsky, an employee of the Laboratory of Human Population Genetics of the Medical Genetic Research Center of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, told reporters about a conversation with a random fellow traveler, who began to convince the scientist of the importance of preserving the Russian gene pool, “after all, how many grandmothers from the Swan Lake generation kept Russian traditions, and their granddaughters from the generation "Pepsi is only interested in Western fashion."
Balanovsky reassured that the grandmother and granddaughter have the same genes, and they do not change because of the fashion for ballet or Pepsi. According to the geneticist, the fellow traveler immediately understood everything, became sad and said: “If the gene pool does not affect anything, why preserve such a gene pool?”

Losing ground

Today, in terms of the number of people speaking it, Russian is the fourth language in the world and is second in this component only to English, Chinese and Spanish. But the situation may soon change. Every year there are fewer and fewer native Russian speakers. Moscow State University Rector Viktor Sadovnichy said that in 10 years Russian will be left behind French, Hindi and Arabic.
Data from the Center for Sociological Research of the Russian Ministry of Education and Science show that the number of Russian speakers by this time may be reduced to 212 million people. And by 2025, the Russian language will give way to Bengal and Portuguese.
The Ministry of Education and Science also reports that about 225 thousand schoolchildren are studying Russian in Western European countries today, although before the early 90s their number exceeded 550 thousand. Experts are convinced that the reduction of native speakers of the Russian language will inevitably deal a serious blow to Russian culture as a whole.

Scary future

The Russian mentality is a mysterious thing. Not least of all, it was formed under the influence of the contrasting climate of the Russian expanses. The withering of nature and cold weather lasting more than six months are suddenly replaced by lush flowering and persistent heat.
Historian Valery Ilyin says that this powerful amplitude of fluctuations is the secret of the pendulum of the Russian character: decline is replaced by an incredible rise, a long depression - by a huge surge of optimism, apathy and lethargy - by a surge of strength and inspiration. Lately, climatologists are increasingly saying that the weather will become more and more unpredictable from year to year. And only God knows how the notorious Russian character will manifest itself under these conditions.
Biochemist Alexander Spirin sees a threat to the Russian mentality in something else. “In the age of information science and computer technology, it has become obvious that man has lost to the computer. Probably, in the future it will become a toy for computers, which can figure out better and faster what to do and how,” the scientist believes. Traditionally, Russian slowness in the fight against “smart” machines makes us very vulnerable.
Another factor that does not give optimism is the state of the “Russian brains”. In one of his works, academician Nikolai Shmelev noted that for the last fifteen years, the policy of the top leadership has been based on the fact that fundamental and applied research, education, the healthcare system and culture are superfluous for the country.
The scientist recalled that Germany, after the mass emigration of scientists in the 30s of the last century, still cannot fully restore its scientific potential. Something similar, according to Shmelev, awaits us in the next two generations. Russia has every chance of becoming a true “global intellectual backwater.”

Under complete control

In 2010, at the World Exhibition in Shanghai, a domestic innovative achievement, the foresight project “Childhood 2030,” was exhibited in the Russian pavilion. The ideologist of the project, President of the International Methodological Association Sergei Popov, commenting on his brainchild, noted that the project advocates moving away from traditional forms of family life in favor of the development of other diverse options - guest marriages, multiple marriages, various educational communities. Popov pays especially much attention to parenting, which, in his opinion, should be made a profession.
In the future, the project envisages the creation of special cities where children separated from their families will be trained and learn the basics of life from “competent mentors.” For those children who cannot reach the required level, the foresight project has a program for electronic correction of their abilities by introducing chips into the body.
And in 2025-2030, according to innovative plans, the first children with the given characteristics and capabilities should be born. Even in the prenatal period, this will be ensured by special nanotechnologies. Considering that such children, according to the project, will be raised by robots, it is scary to imagine what generation of people we will get in 20-30 years.

How often do we regret what we have done. But even more often it turns out that we didn’t do much, but we should have. And not only for others, but also for yourself. Unfortunately, sometimes it is too late - the train has left.

In order not to regret anything later and fill your life with happiness, we offer you a list of 10 things that are worth doing before it’s too late!

You will regret that you spent too little time with the people you love.

Today and now, spend more time with those who help you love yourself, with those who give you a good mood. Try to avoid contact with people who make you depressed and burden you with their problems.

You will regret that you did not directly confess your love to those for whom you really felt this bright feeling.

It is common for all people to leave this world... So why wait for the point of no return? Declare your love right now. Do not avoid such conversations due to embarrassment or some inconvenience, because there may not be a second chance!

You will regret placing too much importance on other people's opinions of you.

Don't forget that many people judge us based on personal life experiences that may have nothing in common with yours. People think that they are putting you on the path of truth, although this is not the case at all. Live from your heart, your experience and your brain.

You will regret trying too hard to impress others while forgetting about the important things for yourself.

In 10 years, it won’t matter at all to you what clothes you wore, what color you dyed your hair, or what music group you listened to. What will really mean something is how you lived, who you loved, and the life lessons you learned.

You will regret letting uncertainty stop you from achieving your goals.

Life is a risk, so take the risk! After all, every time you get out of bed, smiling at a new day, you are taking a kind of risk. It may be small, but it is a risk. What the new day will bring, what important decisions will need to be made - no one knows. But if you don’t do it, you will never know...

You will regret focusing on failures rather than new opportunities.

These are the consequences of the risk described in the previous paragraph, and there is no escape from it. Mistakes and failures will one way or another accompany us throughout life. It is very important to learn to perceive and interpret them correctly. Every mistake is an experience, gaining which we become wiser.

You will regret being too focused on specific tasks and missing out on new opportunities.

You need to learn to understand that many things in life are just little things, so you don't need to pay too much attention to them. Don't let unhealthy perfectionism and scrupulousness make your life full of meticulous details.

You'll regret playing the victim too often

If in your youth, for example, you always pretended to be a victim, then be prepared for the fact that in adulthood this image will be firmly attached to you. Don't let life's hardships and trials take away your enthusiasm.

You will regret that you expected, overanalyzed, but never took the necessary action.

Sometimes we wait a very long time for that “ideal” life path to appear, which will be easy to follow. But remember that it is not desire that makes such a road, but persistent conquest of it. Movement is the key to progress.

You'll regret being too busy to appreciate life.

Go on adventures, work hard, but never forget to pause to enjoy the simple pleasures of life.

Sobchak returns to show business, Chechnya becomes the spiritual center of Russia, Crimea is recognized as Mexico, and Russian cosmonauts fly to the Moon. This is not the plot of Pelevin's new novel.

The head of the Central Election Commission, Ella Pamfilova, speaking to participants in the World Youth Forum in Sochi, said that Russian oppositionist Alexei Navalny will be able to participate in the 2028 presidential elections. Before this, according to Pamfilova’s explanation, Navalny cannot be registered as a candidate due to his criminal record. “When this ten-year period has passed, somewhere in 2028 plus five months he will be able to run for office,” said the head of the Central Election Commission. Fontanka decided not to limit itself to politics, and to find out what the country will be like in these 10 years plus five months.

Politics: Sobchak vs. Navalny

TV presenter and journalist Ksenia Sobchak officially announced her intention. Historian and political scientist Valery Solovey told Fontanka how this will affect the balance of power, and whether Sobchak will become an influential Russian politician by 2028.

“I have no doubt that Sobchak’s nomination is in the interests of the Kremlin, and that this idea itself is connected with the presidential administration,” says Valery Solovey. – Tactically this is a strong move, but strategically it will bring negative consequences. I mean the public delegitimation of the election procedure as such. Even if Ksenia Sobchak conducts a competent campaign, it will not do without a farcical shade.”

“She will attract some of the votes of the protest youth who are now following Navalny. It will also draw back the votes of those who want to show their “fiction” and vote “against everyone.” She has already brought intrigue into the elections. And all this, of course, is beneficial to Putin,” the political scientist comments on the situation.

He assesses the prospects of the newly minted presidential candidate as vague. “It is unlikely that Sobchak will suddenly realize during the campaign that she was born for politics,” says Valery Solovey. “I think Ksenia Anatolyevna is capable of competently conducting a campaign and increasing her reputational capital, but only as a celebrity from show business,” predicts Fontanka’s interlocutor.

As for the future, according to the political scientist, 2028 is too distant a horizon for analysis. “In Russia the situation will change radically within two to three years. And you shouldn’t even guess what will happen in 2028,” advises Valery Solovey.

“The world is changing too quickly, and making long-term forecasts is becoming increasingly difficult,” the political scientist notes. “Everyone who is now involved in politics is not looking beyond March 2018. As for the Russian elite, its representatives are concerned about preserving their assets. It is now typical for the elite to consider the future in the category of “transit,” that is, the transfer of power. They think about the future not with Putin, but after Putin,” the expert says and once again emphasizes that in Russia, unlike China, which has set the goal of becoming a world leader by 2035, there is no possibility of long-term planning.

Geopolitics: Mexico and the “new migration of peoples”

Another Fontanka interlocutor, futurologist Andrei Stolyarov, also discusses the state of “transit” in which Russian society is now. “The old control mechanisms are becoming unusable,” he explains. “The country is stuck in the old reality and needs rapid modernization.”

Speaking about the future, Andrei Stolyarov expresses fears related to the fact that Russia may face a problem that has already overwhelmed Europe - we are talking about an unprecedented wave of migrants. This time from Central Asia. “If the authoritarian regimes in this region collapse, everything will go up in flames. Tens of millions of refugees will flock to us, Islamic extremists will become more active,” warns Andrei Stolyarov.

According to the futurist, on a global scale, the most serious geopolitical problems may arise not only because of the possible collapse of the Central Asian regimes, but also because of the confrontation between North Korea and the United States, as well as Russia and the West. At the same time, it will be extremely difficult for the United States to maintain its leading position, and it’s not even a matter of competition from China, whose economy, according to Fontanka’s interlocutor, will face a powerful crisis in the future.

We are talking, first of all, about internal problems of the United States, which could lead to the fact that the southwestern states with the overwhelming majority of Mexicans among the local population will sooner or later demand independence. By the way, the idea of ​​​​creating a new state entity in this region is not new. The term Mexamerica was first used by researcher Joel Garro in his book “Nine Countries of North America” in 1981.

Economics: Crimea, sanctions and the digital economy

The economic future of Russia, according to experts, is connected, first of all, with the transition from a resource-based economy to a digital one. According to the coordinator of the Russian Association of Futurologists, Konstantin Frumkin, the development of alternative energy will lead to a drop in demand for fuel, and the Russian oil and gas industry will cease to be a leading industry. It is necessary to prepare for such developments in advance. Ten years may not be enough to “cure” the economy from dependence on raw materials.

Along with the new, digital economy will come new problems. “The danger of technological unemployment. The danger of dividing society into generations that differ in the degree of mastery of the capabilities of the information society while discrediting the “inept” ones. The danger of psychological negative phenomena associated with a decrease in “live” communication between people. The danger of business moving to other jurisdictions due to the ease of doing business around the world,” the futurist lists future economic challenges.

As for economic sanctions against Russia, according to Fontanka’s interlocutor, “this will last for a long time.” “With a high probability, anti-Crimean sanctions are a story for many years to come, and by 2028 it will not be resolved,” predicts Konstantin Frumkin.

Society: The Russian Orthodox Church is out of politics

On what “spiritual bonds” will Russian society be held in ten years? Fontanka asked the famous St. Petersburg publicist and director Alexander Nevzorov to discuss this.

“Ten years is not a very distant future, but it seems to me that by then the Russian Orthodox Church will not play the role in our society that it is unsuccessfully trying to play now,” suggests Alexander Nevzorov. According to him, the authorities have already begun to understand that the Orthodox Church cannot be a “spectacular political instrument.” “The Kremlin needs results, but there hasn’t been a political result from these “braces,” says Nevzorov.

As for Islam, according to Alexander Nevzorov, everything here depends on what role Chechnya will play in the political life of the country. “I don’t rule out that if everything continues as it is now, then in 10 years Grozny will become the spiritual center of Russia and, possibly, the entire Muslim world,” thinks Fontanka’s interlocutor.

Pseudoscience and education: holy water instead of heavy water

Biologist and popularizer of science Alexander Panchin helped present Fontanka what could happen to Russian science by 2028. “You can read about this in my dystopia “Apophenia,” suggests Panchin. “If we are talking about the future, then, as always, there are two scenarios – positive and negative.”

“Let’s exaggerate and try to imagine what will happen to science in ten years,” says Alexander Panchin and describes a rather terrible situation in which not only Russian science, but the entire country may find itself. By 2028, pseudoscientific misconceptions will supplant scientific knowledge, the testimony of astrologers and psychics will be used in courts, homeopathy will spread everywhere instead of medicine, creationism will begin to be taught in schools instead of natural sciences, and at the Nuclear Institute in Sarov, heavy water will be replaced with holy water and will jeopardize nuclear safety countries.

“The positive scenario is associated with people’s growing interest in science,” Alexander Panchin switches to optimism. – Russia will have its own Dawkins, Neil Degrace Tysons and Professor Coxes, and will put an end to obscurantism (Richard Dawkins is an English biologist and popularizer of science, Neil deGrasse Tyson is an American astrophysicist and star of scientific talk shows, Brian Cox is an English physicist. – Ed.). There will be new discoveries, for example, in the field of biotechnology. They will invent a cure for cancer, but homeopaths will not find a place among the members of the Academy of Sciences.”

Science and technology: will space be ours?

In a conversation with Fontanka, astrophysicist Sergei Popov emphasizes that when assessing the prospects of Russian science, it is necessary to remember: in any scientific field, Russia’s share on a global scale is only a few percent. “This is a lot and even very good,” the scientist assures. “But it’s better not to count on any high-profile discoveries in the most competitive scientific fields, unless we are talking about an international project with the participation of Russian scientists.”

Also, you shouldn’t compete with America in science. “This is not a question of money,” clarifies Sergei Popov. “No matter how much you pay me, I still won’t run as fast as Usain Bolt.” According to the scientist, the problem is that Russian science still remains very closed. “Russia does not seek to actively participate in international collaborations, and the future lies with international projects,” says the astrophysicist.

The most successful space exploration projects will also be international. This is what Vitaly Egorov, a popularizer of astronautics, thinks. “If everything goes according to plan, then Russia and America will build an inhabited Deep Space Gateway station in lunar orbit,” the astronautics popularizer hopes. – Missions to Mars will be able to launch from there in the future, but no one will fly to Mars in the next ten years. They are just talking about this for now. The moon is a more realistic target."

Also, according to Vitaly Egorov, Roscosmos plans to complete the creation of its super-heavy rocket by 2028, and then the Russian Federation spacecraft will be able to reach lunar orbit for the first time in history. “True, no landing on the Moon yet,” clarifies Vitaly Egorov.

Art: VR cinema

The most powerful breakthroughs, in terms of technology, are expected in the field of cinema. “Technologies in cinema are inevitably developing, and it is already clear in which direction,” famous film critic Anton Dolin shares his thoughts. “Big directors such as Tsai Ming-liang and Alejandro Gonzalez Iñarittu have already made their VR films.” (VR is an abbreviation for “virtual reality” - “virtual reality.” – Editor’s note).

“Everything is heading towards the fact that VR will conquer its market,” says Anton Dolin. – At the same time, neither 3-D nor ordinary 2-D films will go anywhere. The fact is that cinema is not only an industry and technology, cinema is an art. And the basis of this art is the acting of actors, as well as those fascinating stories that these actors, at the will of directors and screenwriters, tell from the screens. The screens may be large or small, but the essence will not change.”

As for Russian cinema, its development “entirely depends on the political situation,” says the film critic. “If we have a totalitarian dictatorship, then it will be one movie; if we have a developed European-style democracy, our industry will be able to develop,” Anton Dolin sums up his story.

“Our world will change radically”

“Imagine that in 1914 you are asking what will happen in 1925,” says sociologist, another representative of the Russian Association of Futurologists, candidate of philosophical sciences Vladimir Kishinets. - The collapse of the NEP, the course towards industrialization, Trotsky was removed from the posts of People's Commissar of Military Affairs and Pre-Revolutionary Military Council. It is clear that the respectable public in 1914 would have literally had their eyes popping out of their heads from such forecasts.”

“Residents of the USSR of the late 80s would have understood little from the predictions about loans-for-shares auctions, vouchers, oligarchs, the CIS, mobile phones and social networks,” the futurologist continues and concludes: the future is most often completely different from the ideas about it. At the same time, Fontanka’s interlocutor is confident that truly revolutionary changes await the world in the next decade.

“Much of what seems vitally important to us today in public and personal life will completely lose its meaning. Many old problems will disappear, and their place will be taken by others, but no less serious, says Vladimir Kishinets. – True, this time the “world revolution” will not come from economics or politics. Technology will bring it. They are the ones who will change the world.”

Futurist Raymond Kurzweil: in ten years we will live in virtual reality and have conversations with artificial intelligence

American inventor Raymond Kurzweil is a futurist with twenty years of experience. The press calls him a tireless genius and an impeccable thinking machine; business magazine Inc included him in the list of top entrepreneurs of all time, describing him as the legal heir of Thomas Edison.

Kurzweil rose to fame in the 1970s by creating one of the first machine-based speech recognition systems; in the 1980s he founded the company Kurzweil Music Systems, which produces synthesizers of the same name. In the 1990s, he predicted the imminent appearance of self-driving cars and mobile phones that would answer questions from owners. He believes that he will live forever - thanks to biotechnology and uploading his consciousness into a computer; Since 2012, he has been Director of Engineering at Google. On Thursday, CNN published five of Kurzweil's predictions for the next decade. In all his forecasts, the futurist relies on the so-called law of accelerating returns - the exponential acceleration of technological progress, which, in turn, pushes all other aspects of human life - from economics to biology - to change.

Medicine

In ten years, clinical practice will change radically - humanity will have mastered the technologies to transform its own biology to protect against disease and aging. We have now had the complete code of the human genome for ten years and have made significant progress in correlating certain genes with the processes for which they are responsible. Thanks to these discoveries, tools are emerging that make it possible to reprogram the human body in exactly the same way as a person reprograms his computer. For example, RNA interference can disable genes that are associated with aging and susceptibility to various diseases. Gene therapy will allow us to modernize the human genome, improving some traits or adding new ones.

Medicine will be revolutionized by the recently developed method of creating so-called induced stem cells. It makes it possible to grow stem cells, similar to embryonic ones, from ordinary cells of the human body - for example, from skin cells. Thanks to this, you can bypass the ethically controversial issue of using embryos - and grow human organs as much as you like. “We can already repair a broken heart—not from love yet, but from a heart attack—by rejuvenating it with reprogrammed stem cells,” says Kurzweil. Modern medicine also obeys the “law of accelerating returns.” Today, technologies that reprogram the “software” underlying human biology are already a thousand times more effective than in 2003, when the Human Genome Project was just completed. And if now their clinical use is a breakthrough, then in the 2020s it will become a daily routine.

Energy and food revolutions

Kurzweil is confident that by 2030, solar energy will be able to satisfy all the needs of humanity. The total number of watts produced by solar panels is growing exponentially, doubling every two years. “If we can at least partially use the tens of thousands of solar rays falling on the Earth, we will be able to satisfy one hundred percent of our energy needs,” the futurologist predicts.

Solar panels in India.

The cost of one watt of solar electricity will begin to rapidly decline as soon as the latest molecular technologies are widely used in the design of solar panels. A recent report from Deutsche Bank notes that “in India and Italy, the cost of unsubsidized solar power is equal to the cost of electricity from the grid. By 2014, more countries will achieve parity between solar energy and conventional electricity.” The energy revolution will entail a food revolution. As soon as inexpensive energy becomes available on the planet, the process of water purification and desalination will accelerate and become cheaper. Optimization will also affect agriculture - from the traditional agro-industrial complex to vertical automated farms, where artificial intelligence will grow vegetables and fruits hydroponically. It will be possible to get rid of livestock farms altogether, Kurzweil predicts, by limiting ourselves to growing “meat” (that is, animal muscle tissue identical to “natural”) in vitro.

3D printers

In seven to ten years, most household items will be produced by 3D printers. Of course, today their functionality is extremely limited - it is difficult to imagine that by the end of the decade they will turn out to be truly indispensable in everyday life. According to Kurzweil, such skepticism is not justified.

“If you look at the life cycle of technology, we see an early period of hyperenthusiasm, then decline and disappointment, followed by real revolution. Remember the Internet boom in the 1990s and the dot-com bubble that followed in the 2000s? Google started around the same time, and now we see multi-billion dollar Internet companies,” writes the engineer. Likewise, 3D printers are currently in their earliest stages of development, but their golden age will begin in the 2020s. At the same time, the ability to “print” your own wardrobe for mere pennies by downloading open source schemes will not put an end to the fashion industry. To be convinced of this, it is enough to look at other industries that have also experienced “digitalization” - book publishing, cinema and music. Even in the distant future, when it will be possible to “print” a gun or a biodegradable frame for prosthetic internal organs at home using a 3D printer, industrial production will still remain profitable.

Artificial intelligence

Within five years, all search engines will completely switch to human language. A couple of years ago, IBM's supercomputer "Watson" became the top player in the TV show Jeopardy! - an analogue of the Russian “Own Game”. The quiz asks quite confusing questions, often involving puns, jokes and metaphors. Despite the fact that until recently a sense of humor and the ability to understand allegories were considered a privilege of the human mind, artificial intelligence answered all the questions without hesitation, beating the tandem of the two most successful human players.

IBM supercomputer Watson wins Jeopardy.

“Watson” gleaned most of his knowledge from Wikipedia and other encyclopedias; In total, the supercomputer read about 200 million pages. Kurzweil is currently working at Google on artificial intelligence that would be capable of having a full conversation with the user. "For example, he will engage you in dialogue to clarify ambiguities or difficult issues," he says.

Virtual reality

In the 2020s, we will become accustomed to fully immersive work and communication with each other in virtual reality - a set of artificially induced visual, sound and tactile sensations. In fact, says Kurzweil, the telephone is already a virtual reality in which people can “meet”, although so far only within the framework of acoustic perception. Video conferencing in instant messengers and smartphones has added visual perception - although not yet in three dimensions. Full visual immersion will appear within ten years, the futurist believes.

“We will be able to augment reality in such a way that I can see you sitting on the couch in my living room, although we will be hundreds of miles apart. Your augmented reality glasses will tell you interesting jokes and stories that are relevant to the conversation you are having,” he predicts. The final touch to virtual reality will be added by tactile sensations. Their simulation will be possible thanks to nanorobots that generate signals in the brain identical to signals from the nerve receptor.

In his book “The Singularity Now,” Kurzweil predicted that by the middle of the 21st century, homo sapiens will evolve into a new species - “people on software” who will “live on the Internet, project bodies wherever they need or want, including holographic and foggy (steam) projections of bodies, and physical bodies consisting of swarms of nanorobots.” To survive until the technology becomes available, Kurzweil, 65, says he takes "250 supplements (tablets)" daily and receives "six intravenous infusions (nutrient supplements that go directly into the bloodstream, bypassing the digestive tract)." Despite the fact that Kurzweil did accurately predict many events in modern history, including the collapse of the USSR and the victory of a computer over a living chess player, not all of the futurist’s predictions are accurate - in 2012, Forbes magazine published a list of his unfulfilled prophecies.