The exchange rate of foreign currencies jumped again against the Russian ruble. In 2018, this has already happened twice - first in the spring against the backdrop of sanctions and the conflict in Syria, and now again in the summer due to the same sanctions, or rather, their threat. At the same time, those in power react to what is happening quite calmly, stating that a weak ruble is beneficial for the economy and Russia has large reserves, and therefore there is no reason for concern.

But ordinary citizens think differently, because the depreciation of the national currency provokes a decline in living standards, which is definitely not a factor that allows you to remain calm. Well, those who kept their savings in rubles are completely ready to tear their hair out, not understanding what to do now - either in a hurry to buy euros and dollars at the current rising rate, or wait it out, hoping that the Russian currency will strengthen in the near future.

To answer these questions, it is worth considering why the euro is growing in Russia today and what it will lead to. Moreover, you need to look at the current situation, both from the standpoint of business, that is, the authorities, and from the point of view of ordinary citizens.

Europe news background

If you follow the content of the news feed regarding economic events in Europe, then for several years now it has been filled with continuous negativity. Of the sensational events, it is enough to recall the situation with Greece, which wanted to default, the UK, which organized Brexit and left the European Union, the invasion of immigrants, weak inflation, the fall in average wages, increased unemployment, falling interest rates to zero, etc.

However, despite the fact that the European Union is bursting at the seams, and economic situation it leaves much to be desired, the European currency is holding very confidently against the Russian ruble and is growing steadily.

What is the reason for this phenomenon? Moreover, in Russia, as officials assure, everything is fine - reserves are filled to capacity, oil has increased in price, production is developing, unemployment is declining, etc.

Why the euro is getting more expensive compared to the ruble

Finding out why the euro is growing today in Russia, it is important to understand that the rise in price of the European currency is not because it stands firmly on its feet, but because the ruble is flying down, even faster than currency unit European Union. It turns out that not everything is as good with the Russian economy as they are assured from TV screens.

Oil

The situation with oil, it would seem, should have helped the Russian currency to strengthen its position. Indeed, if the cost of a barrel of $40 was a problem, today it is valued at twice the price. It turns out that the ruble should receive serious support, but it is not. In fact, there is support, it's just that it is not felt, since other serious factors have now appeared that weaken the ruble.

In addition, oil is not so confidently rising in price, so as not to worry about it. Numerous studies show that there are enough black gold deposits in the world, so there is no need to talk about a fuel crisis. Yes, and the countries of Saudi Arabia claim that the cost of a barrel is $5, which means that they can easily increase production and bring down prices.

Threats like these are forcing Russia to make its economy less dependent on oil, and as a result, the current rise in the price of black gold cannot be called significant enough to feel a tangible effect from it.

US sanctions

The Trump government is actively entering into local conflicts, so the US Congress is tightening sanctions against everyone dissatisfied with his policies. For Russia, this has manifested itself in the form of a series of trade and other financial restrictions that have plagued its economy.

The main reasons for the sanctions are aggression against Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea, as well as Russia's pursuit of its interests in Syria. Since the President of the Russian Federation did not express a desire to compromise on these issues, the US government took steps to "teach" the Russians a lesson. The first blow was the restrictions for Russian businessmen and investors, which caused a real sale of assets on the Moscow Exchange in the spring.

Many Kremlin henchmen were forced to sell shares in large numbers Russian companies to support them in the global market. This situation has spooked foreign investors, who have assessed the open conflict between the US and Russia as a serious risk to their investments. Therefore, foreign capital began to rush out of Russian assets, which, of course, brought down the cost of the ruble and securities in the short term.

True, later there were those who wanted to buy assets that had fallen in price, but now there was a threat of new sanctions, which led to another wave of sales and caused the dollar and euro to rise rapidly against the ruble.

EU policy

It should be borne in mind that the European Union uses all the advantages from the commonwealth of developed countries, directing them to stabilize the economic situation. Therefore, although the euro has weakened, it is receiving more support than Russian ruble. So, one should not expect a significant strengthening of the Russian currency against the European one. Well, since the euro has already found the bottom, having experienced a number of extremely negative phenomena, now the EU currency aims to grow, while the ruble has practically no reasons to strengthen.

According to statistics, most Russians are well aware of this, keeping their savings 50/50 in euros and dollars. This was the case even when the Russians trusted the national currency, and now, when it has weakened and continues to make frightening jerks down against major currencies, few people think of keeping their savings in rubles.

It turns out that there is a difference between a crisis and a crisis. Experts note that the reason why the euro is holding steady despite all the negativity lies in the stable position of individual states. In particular, France and Germany are developing strongly, controlling a large share of the world market.

Therefore, the euro remains stable without feeling the same pressure as the ruble, which is weakening mainly due to the distrust of large investors in the stability of the economic situation in Russia.

The dependence of the Russian economy on raw materials and its position on the world stage

It's no secret that Russia is a state with a resource-based economy. Therefore, the key item for filling the budget is income from the sale of gas, oil and derivative products, and employees of the oil and gas sector are respected people who live in abundance. Many mistakenly perceive the definition of "resource-based economy" as "backward", but this is not so. For example, Australia and Canada are countries with a resource-based economy, but hardly anyone will dare to call such states backward.

In order to properly assess the situation of the economy, which depends on the extraction and import of raw materials, one should focus on its added value. This term refers to the degree of processing of the resulting raw material, which turns into a technologically advanced product, which increases its final cost. If there is a deep processing, then the volume of GDP increases greatly.

If we calculate the rate of such added value in relation to 1 commodity dollar, it turns out that in the USA this figure is 12 dollars, in the European Union - 11, in Canada - 8, in Australia - 6, and in Russia (attention!) only 1.5 USD .

That is, in Russia, what was mined, then sold. There is practically no added value due to the lack of deep processing. Therefore, the Russian Federation sells crude oil and gas at low prices, and this makes the economy highly dependent on import volumes.

Under such conditions, the threat of sanctions makes the risk of losing global trading volumes very real, which will deal a painful blow to the economy. This is well understood by the rulers of the Russian Federation, who are trying in every possible way to pursue a policy of import substitution, and by large foreign investors who began to withdraw their money as soon as the rumor about the threat of new sanctions from the United States spread.

In addition, Russia imports 80-90% of equipment for light industry and heavy industry, electrical goods, medical equipment and pharmaceutical products, and machine tools for the food industry.

Therefore, the Russian economy will not last long without imports. This is the main vulnerability of the economy, which has become the answer to the question of why the euro is growing today in Russia. If sanctions are introduced and tightened, and this is very likely, then there will be a shortage of currency, which will immediately be reflected in the standard of living of ordinary Russians.

The growth of the euro leads to an increase in poverty among Russians

The authorities talk a lot about how a weak ruble is good. Indeed, exporters who make a profit in foreign currency benefit from the weakening ruble. But this rule does not work for ordinary citizens, since almost all of them receive wages in Russian rubles, and it is not subject to indexation, that is, it does not grow with an increase in inflation. On the other hand, prices begin to rise, which just take into account inflation, and the cost of imported goods increases very much, and these are the majority.

The reasons for the growth are simple:

• imported goods become more expensive because the Russian seller needs to purchase them from a foreign supplier, paying for them in euros or dollars;
• domestic products are growing in value, since the price directly depends on the components, most of which are imported, and on utility bills.

Against the backdrop of the growth of the euro and the dollar against the ruble, the Russians can no longer afford to buy some products. Accordingly, the profits of importers and Russian manufacturers are shrinking, starting to cut the budget, lay off workers, etc. This leads to an increase in unemployment, the spread of poverty and crime.

The situation is aggravated by the fact that Russia simply cannot do without buying some consumer goods. For example, the Russian Federation is not able to reduce the volume of purchases of medical equipment, medications, spare parts for cars, office equipment and components, etc. The most critical groups of goods are medications and spare parts for cars.

Even 10 years ago, the cost of oil was high, because of which the ruble felt calm, and many Russians thought that this state of affairs would continue forever. At that time, everyone preferred ruble deposits, since the interest was higher than that of a foreign currency deposit, and a mortgage was taken in foreign currency, since here, on the contrary, the interest was lower. But then the situation changed rapidly. Foreign currency is growing not only today, but already for the 4th year, because of which ruble deposits have greatly depreciated, and dollar mortgages have become an unbearable burden for many citizens.

Therefore, there is no doubt that the growth of the dollar and the euro, along with the weakening of the ruble, is definitely not good for ordinary Russian citizens!

Why a weak ruble is good for business

Finishing to consider why the euro and the dollar are growing in Russia today, it is worth mentioning the ruble and business. As already mentioned, not everyone loses from the weakness of the national currency. What is the matter here?

If we divide economic entities in the Russian Federation according to their orientation, then 3 groups will come out - import, export, closed-loop producers.

1. Importers buy goods abroad, sell them in the Russian Federation for rubles, the profits are again converted into euros and dollars in order to purchase products again. Obviously, this category loses with the weakness of the ruble.
2. Producers make goods from mined raw materials and sell them to domestic market. If purchasing power citizens due to the weakening of the national currency falls, they are also the losers.
3. Exporters produce products or extract raw materials in the Russian Federation, and sell them abroad, making a profit in foreign currency. Then they exchange it for rubles, paying current expenses. If the ruble falls, then their ruble profits rise, as it will take some time until the costs in rubles rise due to the weakening of the national currency. So it is exporters who benefit from a weak ruble, so when those in power say that the weakening of the national currency is in the hands of the domestic economy, they mean it is in the hands of large exporting companies that they themselves own, or where they are, at least , have a significant share.

conclusions

Unfortunately, in the light of the current events, we have to draw disappointing conclusions:

• the ruble is weakening, but experts predict that above 80 p. the euro will not rise in 2018;
• in the next year or two, the ruble will not be able to significantly strengthen its position;
• threats of sanctions are the most dangerous factor for Russian economy;
• it is desirable to keep savings in euros and dollars, but certainly not in rubles.

• Will the dollar grow in the near future 2018, latest news for today, 08/15/18
• Expert advice: is it worth buying dollars and euros

Will the dollar grow in the near future 2018, latest news for today, 08/15/18

In times of crisis, many people think about how to preserve and increase own funds. Some believe that it is best to invest in currencies. But is it so effective when the dollar is already worth more than 62 rubles today? Is it worth it now to buy dollars and euros in order to earn and increase? This question is especially relevant this spring of 2018. You will learn about this and more from this article.

Pros and cons of buying dollars and euros

Before understanding whether profitable investment money in dollars and euros, you should understand what are the advantages and disadvantages of such investments. Among the advantages are the following:

1. Availability. Even those who do not have significant capital can invest in foreign currency. The amount in this case can be any.
2. If you buy dollars and euros for the long term, the likelihood of an increase in the rate will be quite large.
3. Absolute liquidity of investments. The acquired currency can be easily sold at any time.

Despite a number of advantages that attract small investors, investing in foreign currency has a whole a number of shortcomings:

1. Even professionals cannot accurately predict when to buy dollars and euros. There is a high probability that money will be invested at the peak of growth, after which a rollback will follow. The result can be significant losses.
2. Exchange losses. Banks always sell currency for more than they buy. Therefore, any transaction with foreign monetary units leads to losses that will have to be covered by future income.
3. Large investors may have trouble buying required amount foreign currency.
4. Keeping funds in cash is inefficient. This option cannot be called an investment, since the money is a dead weight and does not work at all.
5. Cash will have to be stored somewhere. It is important to take care of the reliability of this place and protection from robbers.

Non-professionals, when deciding where to invest money, always try to listen to the advice of experts. Moreover, the current situation is extremely ambiguous, and small owners of capital are at a loss. Supporters of investing in foreign currency argue that in the long run, dollars and euros are constantly growing against the ruble. On the one hand, it is. However, experts' estimates regarding the amount of profit when investing in dollars and euros confirm that this type of investment cannot guarantee a certain return. Although, of course, there are times when the exchange rate rises quite sharply.

Most professionals, answering the question whether it is worth investing in dollars and euros now, unequivocally say no. The fact is that a significant increase in rates in recent times may indicate that today they have reached the peak of their value. This is confirmed, among other things, by the beginning of the strengthening of the ruble.

Today it is difficult to say how currencies will behave in the future. Therefore, those who are not experts should not rush to convert savings into foreign currency. Even professionals do not give a clear answer regarding the behavior of the course. Therefore, it remains unclear whether it is worth buying dollars and euros now.

Naturally, everyone decides for himself whether to buy currency in 2018. The main thing is that it be balanced and thoughtful. It is important to study diametrically opposed opinions and draw your own conclusions. If the desire to invest in foreign currency persists, do not rush, because the investment process in this case is not as simple as it seems. Typically, financiers recommend distributing capital between all currencies. True, it can be quite difficult to determine the correct proportions on your own. In addition, when the situation changes, the ratio of currencies will have to be constantly changed. A person without financial education is unlikely to make the right decision. There is a high probability that the transaction will be carried out at a completely inopportune moment.

Thus, it is impossible to unequivocally answer what is better to use for investments - dollars, euros or rubles. At each moment in time, you should carefully study all the circumstances in order to make the right decision. It is not easy for a non-specialist to do this. In addition, today the situation has developed in such a way that it has become unprofitable to buy foreign currency. Therefore, when deciding where to store your savings, you should think carefully. It is quite possible that there is a more suitable and comfortable option than the currency.

Should I buy dollars and euros in April-May 2018?

As we can see from the opinions of expert experts, when everything is stable and calm, the dollar always decreases, and the ruble strengthens. And accordingly, it is not advisable to invest all the money in foreign currency. But in 2018, according to the forecasts of economists and geopoliticians, a new round of the global crisis is expected, including the Russian crisis. Usually, as practice shows, during a crisis, the dollar and the euro begin to grow very sharply against the ruble.

This is exactly what is expected in 2018. And here's why it's worth buying dollars:

• The dollar and the euro against the ruble will grow because new sanctions against Russia are being introduced. The Americans and their allies in Europe are trying to isolate Russia by cutting off its access to new world technologies and raw material markets. Accordingly, foreign investors who once invested in ruble-denominated assets in Russia are selling them now, changing their revenue in rubles to foreign currency and withdraw to more reliable assets abroad. This factor puts pressure on the ruble exchange rate, and it will be constantly under pressure. Accordingly, in such a situation, the growth of the dollar and the euro is inevitable.
• Paradoxical as it sounds, but the introduction of new sanctions and attempts to isolate Russia from other states, makes Russia depreciate the ruble. This is necessary in order to support the industry of the country. That is, if Russia slightly depreciates the ruble against the dollar and the euro, then this will even be a positive factor for the economy. Foreign goods will become more expensive for Russian residents. For example, instead of taking foreign-made cars, people will start buying domestic-made cars, since foreign cars will simply not be available to many due to the higher exchange rate of the ruble. And this applies to all goods from Russia. How to encourage people to buy Russian goods? Just devalue the ruble and that's it!
• Such stimulation of one's own industry is not a novelty in the world economy. Namely, due to such tactics, China and other Asian countries have raised their industry. Due to the cheap exchange rate of the Chinese yuan, it is beneficial for the Chinese and even other countries to buy goods from this country. In my opinion, Russian government there is nothing left to do but to act in such a way as to support the industry of Russia. Without such stimulation, many plants and factories can simply stop, and then mass unemployment and other negative processes will begin.

Based on these factors, which are currently taking shape, we can confidently expect an increase in the dollar and euro against the ruble to the level of 100 rubles. Growth is usually very sharp, as it was in previous crisis periods. Therefore, it is important to prepare for this in advance.

Where is it profitable to buy currency today?

So, if you decide to buy dollars and euros today, then this must be done correctly. The most important thing is not to invest all your money in one currency, only part in dollars and part in euros. The rest of the money is better to keep in rubles.

Buy currency in commercial bank it is not always profitable, as banks are constantly trying to make money on everything, including the sale of foreign currency to the population. In times of great excitement and demand for currency, banks set a huge spread in rates (the difference between the purchase and sale prices). And they make great money doing it. But there are others more profitable ways buy currency.

2 ways to buy dollars or euros profitably

1. Through a reliable Forex broker. Open an account for free, replenish it from a card or from a bank account, and buy such an instrument as USD / RUB (dollar against ruble). The commission there is minimal, since you buy directly on the global foreign exchange market, without intermediary banks. From reliable brokers, I recommend Forex Club. You can replenish your account from 10,000 rubles, and then the managers will already tell you how to make a deal.
2. If, nevertheless, you are a person of the "old school" and want to buy currency through banks. Then we recommend buying currency through internet banking. That is, you simply deposit money into your bank account or card. Then go to the Internet bank and buy dollars via the Internet. Online courses and mobile bank It is always more profitable than just going to the bank cash desk and buying cash dollars. Moreover, in many exchange offices and banks, cash currency is often not available in the required amount. Online banking offers the best rates today Tinkoff. There you can open free dollar or euro debit card and replenish it from a card of another bank without leaving home or through partner points. The exchange rate for transferring rubles to dollars or euros will be much more profitable than offered, for example, by Sberbank or VTB.

Whenever the word "currency" is used, dollar or euro banknotes pop up in our minds. But currency is nothing but money, that is, a medium of exchange used by all peoples in various transactions between individuals or businesses.

Once upon a time this universal medium of exchange did not yet exist; or it was just beginning to manifest itself in one form or another. Then trade relations between individuals and entire countries were carried out through barter. In a system of barter exchange, an individual or business had to exchange their goods and services directly. Such trading was carried out on the basis of trust and mutual understanding, as well as in the presence of a third party agent, that is, an intermediary. With the advent of money, everything changed, since, already as a currency, they assumed the functions of an intermediary and a trusted participant in the transaction.

Today there are a large number of national currencies in the world, but the degree of trust in them is different. Therefore, ratings of the most trusted (reliable) and valuable (expensive) are regularly compiled. Like ours:

1. Kuwaiti dinar - KWD

Both the exchange rate, currently the highest against the US dollar, and the prosperity of the economy due to massive oil production have made Kuwait's currency the most important person in the world of money. The Kuwaiti dinar is pegged to the dollar and is worth $3.65. Despite the fact that this currency is extremely stable, reliable and so expensive, it is far from the popularity of the US dollar in the financial trading market. On "Forex" most often the Kuwaiti dinar is converted into the Indian rupee. Currency code - KWD.

2. Bahraini dinar - BHD

Bahrain is one of the most financially prosperous countries, so it is not surprising that its dinar is one of the most secure means of payment in the world. Converting 1 BHD into US dollars by the beginning of 2015 was carried out at an average rate of $ 2.65. It is for this reason that many foreign employees choose to work in Bahrain. Bahrain's Economic Freedom Index is the highest in the Middle East and North Africa. Moreover, this country ranks tenth among the world's free economies. Currency code - BHD.

3. US dollar - USD

Approximately 85% of transactions in the Forex market and financial exchanges around the world are carried out with the US dollar. It is used as a national currency by some other states, for example, El Salvador. It is used as a reserve currency in very many countries, in some it is used on a par with national money, and in some places, as a means of daily household settlements among the population, and completely replaced them. The official US policy promotes the wide distribution of dollars in the world and declares their reliability. All banknotes and coins, starting from 1861, are accepted by US banks for exchange without restrictions (although the backing of the dollar with a gold reserve has already been canceled). Currency code - USD, symbolic designation - $.

4. Australian dollar - AUD

In addition to Australia and its outer territories, which are part of the Commonwealth of Australia, it circulates in the independent island states of Kiribati, Nauru and Tuvalu. The Australian dollar has long been among the most traded currencies in the world (4th - 5th place). This is due to the fact that Australia is a large state with a developed economy, which, which is very significant, due to its isolation, is less prone to crisis phenomena in the global economy than other countries. Among the dealers and brokers of the foreign exchange market, the name “Aussie” (Aussie) has stuck to Australian money.

Currency code - AUD. Symbol A$ or $ (domestic). In Asian ratings and quotes, other designations are sometimes found: AU$ and $AU.

5. Pound Sterling - GBP

The English pound is very widely known as the official currency of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, as well as all its overseas territories (former colonies). It is 100 pence.

The pound sterling is indeed a very "weighty" currency: 1 GBP is converted into more than two US dollars. Such a course is not profitable for tourists visiting England, but from the point of view of investments and investments, it is one of the main "heavyweights" in the financial markets. Currency code - GBP, symbolic designation - £ (Libra).

6. Japanese yen - JPY

Japanese money is currently the 6th most stable currency in the world. About 20 percent of daily transactions in the international currency market are related to the yen. This word means "round object" in Japanese. The spelling and pronunciation of "yen" is due to native English speakers visiting old Japan, and the original sound of the word ゑ ん is somewhat different. Currency code - JPY, symbolic designation in quotes - ¥.

7. Canadian dollar - CAD

This year, the Canadian dollar has an average share of 5.3% in daily foreign exchange transactions in the world. Until the beginning of the 19th century, a number of different currencies were in circulation in Canada at once: English, French, as well as several local ones. In the years before Confederation, most of the country was organized as small rural settlements scattered over a large area; that's why banking it was more convenient to carry out not as a single, but divided territorially. Gradually, a single national unit of account gained more and more respect. A significant increase in the influence of Canadian money occurred quite recently - in the spring of 2014. Canada is now the 11th largest economy in the world. Currency code - CAD.

8. Hong Kong dollar - HKD

Currency in circulation in Hong Kong. It became the eighth most traded currency in 2014, the same level can be assigned to it in terms of reliability. The Hong Kong dollar, like all others, consists of 100 cents. It has the designations 圓 (in formal Cantonese) and 蚊 (in colloquial Cantonese). Sometimes the name 元 is used for it. The currency code in international quotes is HKD.

9. Cayman Islands dollar - KYD

Currently - the official monetary unit of this small state. Has also the abbreviation C/$. There is no direct taxation in the Cayman Islands and the islands thrive as an offshore financial center. This is indeed one of the most valuable currencies: 1 KYD is about $1.20. In addition, it is the most expensive currency among all dollars (and many countries in the world have named their money that way). Currency code - KYD.

10. Swiss franc - CHF

This is the currency of Switzerland, as well as Liechtenstein. Unofficially, it is also the currency of the Italian enclave of Campione d "Italy and the German exclave of Büsingen. This is the last variety of the franc still circulating in Europe. The value of this money is greater than the US dollar, since 1 CHF is approximately $ 1.10; and its stability and resilience have become the talk of the town.

purchases of foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance (it is acquired as part of the budget rule to sterilize excess profits from high oil prices), and on August 9 did not buy foreign currency at all. In August, the Central Bank had to purchase foreign currency for 16.7 billion rubles every working day.

But on Friday, August 10, the dollar rose by another 1 ruble, rising above 67 rubles. (maximum since August 2016), and on Monday, August 13, it continued to beat anti-records, having already reached the April figures of two years ago - above 68 rubles. per dollar. But these days, the sharp fall of the ruble was associated not only with the upcoming anti-Russian sanctions by the United States, but also with the growing economic crisis in Turkey, providing Negative influence on the currencies of all emerging markets, including the Russian one, experts say.

On August 10, due to US-imposed restrictive trade measures on the Turkish lira, the currency fell 14% against the dollar in one day to a historic low of 6.47 lira, and weakened against the dollar by 21% in a week. On August 13, the historical minimum was updated - on Monday, the lira against the dollar reached 6.9.

Video: RBC

Turkish seasoning for sanctions

The weakening of the ruble is due to several reasons at once - anti-Russian sanctions, the flight of investors from emerging markets amid the crisis in Turkey and a letter from presidential aide Andrei Belousov with a tax burden on the metallurgical industry, believes Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank. “In this regard, it is difficult to say what impact each factor has separately, since they can affect investor sentiment to the same extent,” she notes.

The situation in Turkey since the end of last week has overshadowed both fears of a global trade war and the topic of sanctions, analysts say. VTB Capital”, predicting that in the near future the situation in this country will remain the focus of investors, and the lack of an effective response to a surge in volatility exchange rate will likely continue to put pressure on other emerging market currencies.

What has been happening to the ruble over the past two days is a reaction to the growing Turkish crisis, Kirill Tremasov, director of the analytical department at Loko-Invest, agrees. “Events in Turkey are developing according to the most catastrophic scenario - we should expect serious problems in banking sector, the introduction of currency control measures,” he notes. As a result, the ruble, like other currencies of developing countries, immediately reacts to the situation in Turkey, the expert says. Nevertheless, the Russian currency, in his opinion, is now being traded inadequately cheap - in addition to the Turkish crisis, anti-Russian sanctions also affect.

Currency exchange office in Istanbul, Turkey. August 13, 2018 (Photo: Murad Sezer / Reuters)

Events in Turkey cannot but create risks for other currencies of developing countries - against the background of the fall of the lira, the Brazilian real, the South African rand, the Mexican peso are also falling, recalls Sergey Suverov, senior analyst at BCS. It is against the backdrop of the situation in Turkey that the ruble is falling more actively than if only future sanctions would put pressure on it, he believes.

The ruble is not affected by the fall of the Turkish lira per se. The main factor here is tough US rhetoric on Turkey, which sends a signal to investors that Washington can act more decisively on Russia, says a senior analyst for financial markets Raiffeisenbank Denis Break. Against the background of the tough US policy against Turkey, investors have no doubts that the sanctions will not only be “cosmetic,” the analyst believes.

How the ruble will behave further, analysts do not undertake to predict. The pressure on the ruble may stop when the market receives a signal that the US Congress will not follow the worst-case scenario of new anti-Russian sanctions - against Russian public debt and state-owned banks, Sergey Suverov notes. Even if the sanctions apply only to OFZs, the ruble is likely to break through the mark of 70 rubles. per dollar, admits Denis Poryvay, noting that in the current situation it is impossible to make any forecasts regarding the limit of the ruble weakening.

Based on the macroeconomic situation and the balance of payments, the ruble should not be worth so little under any circumstances, Kirill Tremasov believes, therefore, according to him, when the situation calms down a bit, the rate may return to the levels of early August.

Why are the dollar and euro growing against the Russian ruble? This question worries not only leading experts in the field of economics and finance, but also the majority of ordinary Russians, since it is known that the lion's share of the population prefers to keep their funds in dollars and euros.

It would seem that there are not many reasons for the growth of the single European and American currency - the American economy, which has been predicted for a year to decline, the same applies to the economic situation in most countries of the Eurozone, but everything looks even more impartial there: high unemployment, lower social benefits, rising prices, all this together should not seem to contribute to such a currency strengthening its position. However, everything happens exactly the opposite, but there are reasons for this.

Why is the euro rising against the ruble?

The fact that the rate of the single European currency is growing against the Russian currency is a consequence of the economic situation in Russia.

It is no secret to anyone that the state of the national economy of Russia largely depends on how much oil costs on the world market, namely “black gold”, which is the strategic reserve of our country. Given the fact that the price of this product is not getting higher, it becomes clear why the Russian ruble is losing ground against the single European currency. At the same time, if the situation is studied more deeply, it will become clear that the euro is also falling, but the Russian ruble is falling much faster, which is why it seems that European money is becoming more expensive.

As for oil prices, not so long ago the American Petroleum Institute published the results of scientific research. The result of these studies is as follows: the world's reserves of "black gold" are quite sufficient, and not only Russia, but also many other countries have enough oil deposits, so that countries are not afraid of an oil crisis. Therefore, the prices for such a product do not increase, which clearly does not contribute to the rise in price of the Russian National currency, but is the reason that the cost is rising. However, it should be noted that for Russia, the appreciation of the single European currency is not the cause of a significant decline in the national economy - our country has large gold and foreign exchange reserves, thanks to which the state of the Russian economy is relatively stable.

Speaking about the increase in the value of the eur, it should be noted that no matter how bad things are in the economy of individual European countries, it should be noted that the commonwealth of European countries provides much more serious support for the strengthening of the single currency than support for the Russian ruble. All this contributes to the fact that if the euro falls in price in the near future, it will not happen soon, and at least this process will not take place at a very fast pace.

The situation around the euro

It should not be overlooked that a large number of Russian citizens prefer to keep their savings in euros. Despite the fact that the confidence of a large number of Russians in the Russian ruble has increased significantly in recent years, the euro continues to be very popular, which is also one of the reasons for the growth of this currency. It should also be taken into account that, despite the fact that some countries of the European Union are in far from the best economic situation However, the leaders of the European Union, such as Germany and France, feel quite confident on the world market (especially Germany), which is also the reason for the fairly strong position of the single European currency.

Nevertheless, most authorities agree that in the long term, significant growth of the euro is not expected, simply because most of the eurozone countries have not yet fully recovered from the global financial crisis. This will take time, which will affect the euro, but the whole problem is that the Russian economy also cannot boast of great growth, which clearly does not contribute to the strengthening of the ruble. Thus, everything depends on the state of the national economies, this is the factor that determines the growth of national currencies.

Why is the dollar rising?

Despite the fact that talks about the instability of the American currency have been going on for the first year already, the dollar continues to grow in price not only against the Russian ruble, but also against a number of other world currencies. The growth of the American currency is due to many reasons, but not all of them are related to the national economy of the United States of America.

Many leading American experts attribute the growth of the American currency to the fact that a large number of economies in the world depend on the dollar. At the same time, none of the experts says that the US economy is in a stable position - a large number of large American banks are not going through better times, many of the largest enterprises are closed.

One of the main reasons that the US dollar is growing in value is that for a large number of countries, it is the usd that is the main reserve currency. Consequently, if the dollar falls in value, the economic condition of these countries will be unenviable. It is known that world settlements between states and major enterprises are carried out most often in dollars, which also contributes to their strengthening in the global financial market.

Prospects for the growth of the American currency

As for the growth of the dollar against the Russian ruble, it should be noted the instability of the Russian economy, which is based on the prices of raw materials (mainly the cost of oil). In this regard, the Russian ruble remains extremely sensitive against usd, in addition, one should not lose sight of the fact that Russia has a huge amount of imported goods, which also contributes to the growth of foreign currency prices.

At one time, many people began to prefer to keep their funds in euros, but the economic situation in most eurozone countries is far from stable, which once again proved that usd remains one of the most stable world currencies. In this regard, it is the dollar, which is the reserve currency for most countries, that is one of the most attractive.

It should not be overlooked that America continues to attract investments from many countries to its banks and that the American economy is far from being in the best condition scares not all world investors. The influx of foreign capital is the reason that the economic condition is getting better, which is the reason for the strengthening and appreciation of the US currency. This is one of the answers to the question why the dollar is growing.

Nevertheless, a large number of experts and financial analysts agree that the growth of usd will not continue forever. This is due to many factors, first of all, it should be noted that the exchange rate of the American currency is not supported by real financial achievements, but by an artificial influx of foreign capital into the country, as well as huge government loans (it is no secret that the United States of America is the world leader among debtors).

One possible reason for usd to fall soon is that some large advanced economies will refuse to settle in dollars and switch to yuan for example (and this situation is quite possible). Then the situation with the US currency will not be so clear, but when it will be and whether it will be in reality, is unknown. Therefore, while many people, when asked in what currency they prefer to keep their funds, choose exactly the money that was described above. In any case, most experts advise not to keep your savings in one thing - as you know, you should not put all your eggs in one basket.